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Author Topic: Cubs in '18  (Read 171438 times)

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3660 on: August 20, 2018, 10:58:15 pm »
Quote from: goblue007 on August 20, 2018, 10:39:33 pm
uh yeah I’ll take Yelich over anything they have in the OF

Yelich is better than any of the Cubs OF's that isn't debatable.  He's been worth 3.7 fWAR so far this year. 

The Cubs OF (Prorated for Happ and Zobrist on innings)
Zobrist has been worth 1.5 fWAR
Schwarber 2.5 fWAR
Heywood 2.0 fWAR
Almora 1.4 fWAR
Happ 1.1 fWAR

LF for the Cubs has been over 3 fWAR
CF 2.5ish fWAR
RF 2.5-3 fWAR

OF production isn't the problem.

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3661 on: August 20, 2018, 11:06:47 pm »
Quote from: brjones on August 20, 2018, 10:51:56 pm
Yelich is close to twice that, a borderline MVP candidate, and is currently playing for one of the Cubs' top rivals. Without him, the Brewers would be buried. With him, the Cubs would lead the Cardinals by a couple more games.

Of course, with Chili Davis as the hitting coach, Yelich would've been encouraged to not take advantage of his more HR friendly ballpark in the most homer friendly era of MLB history. So maybe he wouldn't have helped that much.

The Brewers would be buried if the Cubs 5 starters to begin the year produced more than 2.7 fWAR.  Hendricks is on pace for 2.3 fWAR.  He's the only guy performing close to what I would have thought.  Lester and Quintana are both going to be most likely under 1.5 fWAR on the season and the Cubs FA signings are going to negative.  That is THE problem with this team.  Current offensive slump excluded. 

I think a bigger contributor than Davis is injuries to Bryant, Rizzo, Russell to the Cubs power slump.  Contreras had a big drop in his ISO, but he's hitting less ground balls and more fly balls this year. 
« Last Edit: August 20, 2018, 11:24:19 pm by CUBluejays »
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3662 on: August 20, 2018, 11:17:52 pm »
Nobody said OF was the problem. Somebody said Yelich wouldn’t be much of an improvement over what they have. You can mix and match and prorate and ish as much as you’d like, but penciling in Yelich at leadoff every single day would be a big improvement.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3663 on: August 20, 2018, 11:19:44 pm »
Speculation that Cubs put in a waiver claim for Daniel Murphy. Wouldn’t be a surprise. Not confirmed yet.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3664 on: August 20, 2018, 11:22:57 pm »
Quote from: goblue007 on August 20, 2018, 11:17:52 pm
Nobody said OF was the problem. Somebody said Yelich wouldn’t be much of an improvement over what they have. You can mix and match and prorate and ish as much as you’d like, but penciling in Yelich at leadoff every single day would be a big improvement.

Cubs leadoff hitters .374/.456/.831  wRC+ 123
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3665 on: August 20, 2018, 11:28:23 pm »
 Was more so about lineup construction and it’s advantages but you’re going to be you so have fun with that.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3666 on: August 20, 2018, 11:32:09 pm »
CBJ, most of the year we've had our 3 and 4 hitters leading off to try to get something going.  That's okay, but it means guys who aren't true power guys are then hitting 3 and 4.  Your example is lying with statistics.  But I think goblue was saying that.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3667 on: August 20, 2018, 11:42:26 pm »
Quote from: goblue007 on August 20, 2018, 11:28:23 pm
Was more so about lineup construction and it’s advantages but you’re going to be you so have fun with that.

What big improvement does that give you?  How does it effect Rizzo and Baez that they can't bump up to the leadoff spot when they are struggling?  Who does Yelich replace?  What would he have cost in a trade?  How does a 1ish WAR improvement in the OF make a dramatic change to the offense? 

Just going Yelich is big improvement is weak and both you and br are better than that.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3668 on: August 20, 2018, 11:46:59 pm »
Quote from: goblue007 on August 20, 2018, 11:19:44 pm
Speculation that Cubs put in a waiver claim for Daniel Murphy. Wouldn’t be a surprise. Not confirmed yet.

Murphy's defensive metrics have been really, really bad for a while.  Not sure if that kind of defensive hit is worth his bat in the lineup.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3669 on: August 21, 2018, 12:04:43 am »
Yelich might have been a 1ish WAR improvement...but I think he would've been a 3-5 real life win improvement.

This offense is dysfunctional, and it has been for almost 2 full seasons now. I'm convinced that one very good player (like Yelich) contributes much more than a pretty good platoon like Almora/Happ, and it's something Fangraphs hasn't really figured out how to quantify yet. We'll see as metrics continue to evolve--in 5 years, I think we're going to look back at the 2017-18 Cubs as teams who placed too much emphasis on overall run scoring over being good on a day-to-day basis.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3670 on: August 21, 2018, 07:07:40 am »
Offense is never consistent. The problem with this team has been run prevention. The 2016 gave up 556 runs, the 2018 Cubs have given up 499 already, or 4.05 runs/game.

The starting pitching is the problem with this team. On offense it has been the lack of HR, not strike outs or lack of getting on base that has been the problem.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3671 on: August 21, 2018, 07:47:14 am »
Acknowledging Yelich improves the team doesn’t mean we think pitching hasn’t been the primary problem
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3672 on: August 21, 2018, 09:05:47 am »
Quote from: goblue007 on August 21, 2018, 07:47:14 am
Acknowledging Yelich improves the team doesn’t mean we think pitching hasn’t been the primary problem
Quote from: CurtOne on August 20, 2018, 11:32:09 pm
CBJ, most of the year we've had our 3 and 4 hitters leading off to try to get something going.  That's okay, but it means guys who aren't true power guys are then hitting 3 and 4.  Your example is lying with statistics.  But I think goblue was saying that.

I never said Yelich wouldn't improve the team.  He's great.  I just don't think there is some huge gain to be made.

Cubs top 2 leading players at leadoff by PA
Almora 185 PA wRC+ 123
Zobrist 139 PA wRC+ 122

Rizzo, Bryant and Baez have a combined 39 games at leadoff and they were put at leadoff to try and get them going when they were struggling.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3673 on: August 21, 2018, 09:29:46 am »
My point was that when the lineup is manipulated as often as Joe is prone to do, it skews the results.  Is our #8 hitter that weak or is something else at play?  Is our #9 hitter that strong is or something else at play?  It's called confirmation bias and it afflicts many in baseball who love the stats.  It's what old timers like in the above articles are complaining about.  We pick and choose stats that prove that 6 angels dance on the knob of a bat in order to deny that what we're observing is not actually happening.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #3674 on: August 21, 2018, 11:14:37 am »
They problem is our observation of the team and what is happening is subject to our own biases.  I'm certainly subject to that and why I lean heavily on stats, because my memory will confirm my biases.
« Last Edit: August 21, 2018, 12:49:12 pm by CUBluejays »
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