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Author Topic: Cubs in '18  (Read 171331 times)

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4020 on: September 26, 2018, 01:55:50 pm »
Quote from: wmljohn on September 26, 2018, 06:25:55 am
Possible Scenario?

Cubs and Brewers tie for the division with the best record in Baseball.
Monday playoff game in Chicago for division Cubs lose.
Wild Card game in Chicago the Cubs could win.
Brewers lose first round.
Cubs have to play all remaining playoff series' without home field even though they have the best record in the league.

I think it is time for MLB to reevaluate the home field thing.

I think it is time for the Cubs to reevaluate their hitting approach. Maybe launching a few homers here and there isn't the worse thing.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4021 on: September 26, 2018, 05:01:50 pm »
I'm hoping the Cubs will go 4-1 in their remaining games.  The Brewers would have to sweep to get into a 1 game playoff with us to determine the Division champ with the loser being a wildcard team.  Let's start it off with a win tonight.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4022 on: September 26, 2018, 08:32:03 pm »
Jayson Stark agrees with me...Javy for MVP...

Stark: MVP, LVP, Cy Young, Cy Yuk—It's time to hand out end-of-season awards
We’re almost at the finish line. Already? It seems like 10 minutes ago that Ian Happ was mashing the first pitch of the season halfway to South Beach. But here we are, and it's awards time.
The Athletic · theathletic.com
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4023 on: September 28, 2018, 10:04:20 am »
Any word or gossip on Strop's comeback? 
*Not sure if he'll be able to come back and be good, even if he does come back.  Kinda like Bryant, coming back at 50% doesn't necessarily help all that much. 
*But *IF* Strop was able to come back and pitch as well as he did through the year, and now with his arm strong and well rested, that would be very helpful.

Would be kind of especially dramatic if he showed up this weekend and helped win a game.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4024 on: September 28, 2018, 10:17:02 am »
That was the talk on the telecast last night...he might make an appearance this weekend.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4025 on: September 28, 2018, 10:29:52 am »
That would be a mistake.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4026 on: September 28, 2018, 11:51:12 am »
I disagree.  This is the time to get a handle on his likely effectiveness for the postseason, if the appropriate low leverage situation presents itself.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4027 on: September 28, 2018, 12:15:51 pm »
Thanks, Dave!  That's cool that he's close enough to even be under consideration. 

It would be fun if the Cubs had some kind of offensive explosion and had a 4-1 lead or something in a game.  Bring Strop into the 7th inning or 8th, with more than just Kintzler and Garcia and Maples left in reserve.  If he's fine and sharp, awesome.  If he's like Wild-Maples or Wild-Edwards or Justin Grimm, then have somebody else in reserve. 
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4028 on: September 28, 2018, 12:21:19 pm »
Remember when Theo and Hoyer decided that Justin Grimm was a better option than Hector Rondon?  The non-success of the Chatwood, Yu, and Morrow signings gets more attention.  But the Rondon decision might have been the most dumb and grim mistake of them all. 
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4029 on: September 28, 2018, 01:19:41 pm »
Hated that decision...then and now...
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4030 on: September 28, 2018, 01:26:18 pm »
I think the Rondon decision was influenced by Joe's lack of trust in Rondon. 
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4031 on: September 28, 2018, 01:42:44 pm »
I think Joe's lack of trust in Rondon was influenced by a few trips to Binny's Beverage Depot...
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4032 on: September 28, 2018, 01:45:13 pm »
Double influence?
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4033 on: September 28, 2018, 01:51:17 pm »
I don't think they preferred Grimm to Rondon. They just thought Grimm was cheap enough that it was worth tendering a contract to him to see if he could suddenly show something in Spring Training.

Rondon stayed healthy this year, that's the key for him. He'd been battling injuries for a season and a half, and had almost retired earlier in his career (just before the Cubs picked him up) because of injury problems. I'm sure they concluded his health was just too much of a question to pay him $6 million this year.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4034 on: September 28, 2018, 02:06:12 pm »
Fangraphs has the Cubs with a 77.7% chance to win the division. That seems high, and if you take every remaining game as a coin flip, the Cubs have a 42/64 chance to win the division outright, a 15/64 chance of finishing tied (so a 7.5/64 chance of winning a one-game playoff),  and a 7/64 chance of ending up behind Milwaukee without a playoff.  So 49.5/64, or 77.3%, of being division champions.

But we're playing a fearsome team battling for their postseason lives and out to get us, whereas the Brewers are up against a tail ender with little to play for. Fangraphs giving us better odds than pure luck would is a blog surprise -- or they think our exhausted, injury plagued team really can get it done.
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