Author Topic: Cubs in '18  (Read 171302 times)

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4140 on: October 04, 2018, 11:44:00 am »
Yankees and Astros averaged 95.3 and 95.2 in fastball velocity as a staff.  They had 8% (10th in MLB) and 7.4% (4th in MLB) BB%.  The had 26.6% (2nd) and 28.5% (1st) K% in MLB.  Velocity doesn't mean poor control.

The Cubs 21.3% (20th) K%, 9.9% BB% (28th) with 92.8 mph (25th).

Thanks, Blue, very helpful data perspective.  I think your point that "velocity doesn't mean poor control" is very well taken.  I think if anything, velocity trends towards having better control. 


For most pitchers the fastball is the easiest pitch to throw for a strike (Maples/Edwards notwithstanding).  Guys with enough velocity to attack with the fastball have an easier time throwing strikes and having control.  And not only is a fastball easier to throw for a strike than a curve, but an excellent fastball doesn't need to be as fine and nibble the corner as precisely either. 

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4141 on: October 04, 2018, 12:41:55 pm »
I lean towards velocity because it gives you a larger margin of error, but what I really want is staff that strikes people and doesn't walk people.  The Cubs staff wasn't any of that.

The Cubs really need to try and recreate what the Yankees are doing with their pitching development.  The Yanks have the ability to draft pitchers that don't throw hard and then add velocity.  They might be looking for mechanical adjustments, pitcher traits or weighted ball programs or all of the above or more. 
« Last Edit: October 04, 2018, 12:52:06 pm by CUBluejays »

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4142 on: October 04, 2018, 12:55:28 pm »
I like Theo and his approach, and listening to his interview. 

Still, I admit I kind of wonder. 
1.  He made a point of several times distinguishing between performance and talent.  Is this a case of Boss misjudging and over-valuing his talent?
 
2.  He said the offense was broken, now; yet he emphasized how great they were first-half.  Might this be a Boss misjudging his talent, and thinking that the first-half offense is the real normal?  Maybe the first half is the norm, but I wonder?
*When gushing about the first half, he did *not* acknowledge that being a bottom-3rd HR team was already manifest then. 
*The first half was also supported by Almora hitting like a batting champion and Heyward hitting really well too. 
*If Theo is counting on that being future normal, is that a wise and realistic premise? 

3.  He talked about urgency and intensity.  Might this be a Boss misjudging his talent, and thinking that the talent is great and sufficient but it just needs to want to try harder? 
*Maybe it was a bunch of underachievers playing below their talent. 
*But I wonder whether whatever limits Heyward/Almora/Schwarber/Happ/Russell/Caratini have as hitters isn't perhaps more lack of skill than lack of will? 

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4143 on: October 04, 2018, 01:01:15 pm »
...The Cubs really need to try and recreate what the Yankees are doing with their pitching development.  The Yanks have the ability to draft pitchers that don't throw hard and then add velocity.  They might be looking for mechanical adjustments, pitcher traits or weighted ball programs or all of the above or more. 

Lange said he was told it's normal to lose velocity, as you transition from once-a-week.  Little and Lange both did lose, and now both profile as guys who need to be soft-toss spin specialists to make it. 

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4144 on: October 04, 2018, 02:38:34 pm »
If the Yankees drafted Lange and Little they'd be throwing 100. 

This isn't a full list, but from the Fangraphs prospects page the Yanks have 16 guys with 55 or higher fastballs.  The Cubs have 6.

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4145 on: October 04, 2018, 04:18:27 pm »
Quote
In the meantime, I will participate in the enjoyable discussions of what the front office should do, giving my opinions along with the others.  But it should be known that not a single one of us has even 10 percent of the information available to the front office, and recommendations based upon comparative ignorance, while fun, are essentially meaningless.

Amen.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4146 on: October 05, 2018, 08:30:26 am »
Quote from: Bruce Miles
About 27 minutes into Epstein's meeting with the Chicago media, I asked him about how big a factor the schedule and fatigue were in the team finishing the season with a thud, losing in Game 163 of the regular season to the Milwaukee Brewers and in the wild-card game to the Colorado Rockies.

The question was prefaced that the schedule was what it was -- 42 scheduled game days in 43 days down the stretch -- and that nobody likes to hear excuses.

I wasn't sure what Epstein would say, but his answer was more than 1,000 words long, and he cut off another question by telling a reporter he wasn't finished yet.
https://www.dailyherald.com/sports/20181004/epstein-cubs-schedule-was-a-lot-but-every-team-has-things-to-deal-with

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4147 on: October 05, 2018, 08:50:48 am »
Beyond the platitudes (which Theo is as good at as anybody), there were some code words in his presser that tipped off his true mindset.  "Broken", not enough urgency, "didn't show up for the first half of the season".  He's not happy with the status quo in the clubhouse and it should be obvious to anyone not intentionally blinding themselves to it.

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4148 on: October 05, 2018, 09:09:18 am »
I don't think anyone who doesn't win the world series is "happy" with the status quo.  But that doesn't necessarily mean that they are going to gut the team or make major personnel changes.

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4149 on: October 05, 2018, 09:12:47 am »
Sounds like an indictment of the coaching staff to me.

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4150 on: October 05, 2018, 09:45:51 am »
I thought Theo talked a lot but didn't really say anything.  There was something for everyone regardless of what your position is on any of the subjects.

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4151 on: October 05, 2018, 10:24:08 am »
I admit I'm a little uncertain about this.  I think attributing too much to psychological/clubhouse-chemistry/urgency stuff may be a factor, but might also really miss the point.  (When pitchers forget to cover first, that I can explain with losing focus, sure...) 

But for hitting, is that really a thing? 

For guys like Happ and Schwarber, will urgency impact their capacity to hit fastballs above the waist?
 
Can any pro athlete lack the competitiveness to collect his wits and fully focus during 4-5 brief at-bats?  And even within a 3-min AB, most of that is relax time taking practice swings and waiting for pitcher.   

Seems to me that any pro athlete can put ALL life issues aside during those few seconds in the box, and be totally focused on winning that AB?  (Daughter might be in hospital, father might have cancer, wife might be angry, etc.; I suspect real pro competitors can put all of that aside when they're in the box.) .   

Maybe it factors for prep?  Urgency to study film, or to work on something productive in BP? 

Different on defense, I can see mind drifting. 

But for a hitter actually in the box?  I just can't see that being much of an issue.

So I'm kind of hesitant to think a "broken" offense can get fixed with "urgency". 
« Last Edit: October 05, 2018, 03:15:15 pm by craig »

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4152 on: October 05, 2018, 12:36:29 pm »
Not in the box, no...

On defense, sure...on the bases, sure, even immediately after contact (not running out a lazy pop fly or a weak grounder), yes, all the time...

But not in the box...when you're in the box, it's game on...always...

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4153 on: October 05, 2018, 03:16:31 pm »
Exactly.  Urgency isn't going to solve the offense.  Other solutions needed for that.