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Author Topic: Cubs in '18  (Read 171319 times)

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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4155 on: October 08, 2018, 05:31:23 pm »
Schwarber’s trade value is a fascinating puzzle and a key factor this offseason. I’m honestly not sure how to assess it, and I don’t know if a lot of GMs are either.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4156 on: October 08, 2018, 05:44:01 pm »
That's pretty amazing.  Seems about how we'd remember it. 

I wonder if Schwarber isn't inherently a likely to always underperform in clutch?  He's an extreme splits guy.  A HR hitter with just 1 HR versus LHP; and a slow lefty who likes to hit grounders into the shift.  >200 points worse versus lefties.   

In high-leverage situation, why would an opposing manager let him face a RHP?  In the 2nd inning, they're not going to pull their RHP against Schwarber.  But in late high-leverage, won't his numbers stink because opponents make him face lefties all the time, against whom he always kinda stinks? 
« Last Edit: October 08, 2018, 05:46:41 pm by craig »
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4157 on: October 08, 2018, 05:47:40 pm »
Amazing that Russell and Contreras were also on that list.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4158 on: October 08, 2018, 05:59:49 pm »
Fangraphs' list of all-time difference in high to med/low leverage w/RC+ includes seasons by Craig Biggio, Hideki Matsui, Jim Thome, David Wright, and Ryan Zimmerman.

IOW, not sure why anyone should be hung up on this one stat for one season.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4159 on: October 08, 2018, 06:41:00 pm »
Thome isn’t a bad long-term comp for Schwarber, maybe.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4160 on: October 08, 2018, 06:47:30 pm »
Hall of Famer Jim Thome?
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4161 on: October 08, 2018, 07:05:31 pm »
Dave Cameron pegged him as a LH Mike Napoli on Fangraphs a few years ago. That’s looking pretty accurate. If you take out Napoli’s huge (and uncharacteristic)  2001 season where he hit .320/.414/.631, I bet their career slash lines would be almost identical.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4162 on: October 08, 2018, 07:12:16 pm »
Man, I wish they’d traded Schwarber for Miller instead of the Chapman trade.  Assuming that was really an option, of course.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4163 on: October 08, 2018, 08:32:43 pm »
Quote from: JeffH on October 08, 2018, 06:47:30 pm
Hall of Famer Jim Thome?

Upside man, upside.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4164 on: October 08, 2018, 09:04:21 pm »
Agree re Schwarber's upside...just finished his age 25 season with less than 1,100 ABs.  Some progress this season.  Very hard worker.  Real good team guy. 

I'd guess Theo's not ready to sell on Schwarber yet unless something really good comes his way this off-season (which isn't likely).
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4165 on: October 08, 2018, 09:54:14 pm »
It just seems like change is coming - someone from the core (besides Russell) is going to be outbound.  And Schwarber seems like the most logical candidate in many ways.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4166 on: October 08, 2018, 09:55:46 pm »
Quote from: Chris27 on October 08, 2018, 05:59:49 pm
Fangraphs' list of all-time difference in high to med/low leverage w/RC+ includes seasons by Craig Biggio, Hideki Matsui, Jim Thome, David Wright, and Ryan Zimmerman.

IOW, not sure why anyone should be hung up on this one stat for one season.

Kris Bryant says hi
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4167 on: October 08, 2018, 09:59:57 pm »
Quote from: brjones on October 08, 2018, 07:05:31 pm
Dave Cameron pegged him as a LH Mike Napoli on Fangraphs a few years ago. That’s looking pretty accurate. If you take out Napoli’s huge (and uncharacteristic)  2001 season where he hit .320/.414/.631, I bet their career slash lines would be almost identical.

As long as Schwarber doesn’t devolved a degenerative hip condition would that really be a bad thing?  Schwarber is also a lot better on defense than Cameron gave him credit for.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4168 on: October 08, 2018, 10:09:42 pm »
Quote from: CUBluejays on October 08, 2018, 09:59:57 pm
As long as Schwarber doesn’t devolved a degenerative hip condition would that really be a bad thing?  Schwarber is also a lot better on defense than Cameron gave him credit for.

At this point, it's probably the best case scenario. Outside of 2011, Napoli was a slightly above average player overall who only provided value with his bat, and that's probably what Schwarber is. That's far less than the JD Martinez-like hitter the Cubs seem to think he'll turn into.

I'm still really skeptical of Schwarber's defense. As soon as the league figures out they can't run on his arm, I don't think he provides any defensive value.
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Re: Cubs in '18
« Reply #4169 on: October 08, 2018, 10:22:24 pm »
Preventing people from taking extra bases is also defensive value. A guy on 1st is a lot less likely to score than a guy on second. Schwarber’s range factor was been positive for 2 years. He isn’t a butcher that everybody makes him out to be.

FWIW JD Martinez was coming off a wRC+ of 75 and about to get released at Schwarber age.
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