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Author Topic: Cubs in '21  (Read 118616 times)

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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #2070 on: July 29, 2021, 07:01:58 pm »
Quote from: craig on July 29, 2021, 06:59:23 pm
I'm guessing the Yankees think the short RF porch will be Rizzo-friendly? 

There was a tweet about that:

Sarah Langs @SlangsOnSports

Anthony Rizzo has 14 HR this season

If all of his 2021 batted balls over 300 ft had been hit at Yankee Stadium? He'd have 23 HR

Unsurprisingly, like with Joey Gallo, that's the most of any single ballpark
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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #2071 on: July 29, 2021, 07:06:47 pm »
Quote from: Deeg on July 29, 2021, 06:52:10 pm
I admire your optimism in thinking Hosmer's $15m annual salary is going to be pushing the Cubs against the cap/LT in the next four seasons, given that apart from Hendricks and Heyward they basically have nothing allocated.  Who are you expecting the new owner to be?

With Rizzo bringing back two pretty decent prospects, at least on paper you:d expect KB to fetch more.  He's having a better season and has far more defensive value with his versatility.

I have no clue when the Cubs are going to spend again, but if they aren’t trying to spend with Padres until after 2025 this is going to suck horribly. There isn’t a reason to keep Contreras or Hendricks then.
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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #2072 on: July 29, 2021, 07:06:47 pm »
Quote from: craig on July 29, 2021, 06:59:23 pm
I'm guessing the Yankees think the short RF porch will be Rizzo-friendly? 

I'm guessing they're right.

How about KB to the Red Sox now?  If they need a 1B he can certainly do that too.
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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #2073 on: July 29, 2021, 07:07:51 pm »
Quote from: CUBluejays on July 29, 2021, 07:06:47 pm
I have no clue when the Cubs are going to spend again, but if they aren’t trying to spend with Padres until after 2025 this is going to suck horribly. There isn’t a reason to keep Contreras or Hendricks then.

I think you're creating a false dichotomy here.
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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #2074 on: July 29, 2021, 07:12:25 pm »
Quote from: Deeg on July 29, 2021, 06:52:10 pm
I admire your optimism in thinking Hosmer's $15m annual salary is going to be pushing the Cubs against the cap/LT in the next four seasons...

Hosmer is $13M/year for his last 3 years.  That would be an ugly anticipated waste.  Still, it's not quite like Heyward-scale or anything like that. 
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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #2075 on: July 29, 2021, 07:13:35 pm »
Very surprised at the return for Rizzo. Even with the Cubs picking up "all his salary." Rizzo doesn't make a ton. Probably unreasonable to set expectations for a Kimbrell return based on this deal, but I'm certainly optimistic at this point...

I don't know what to think about the Tepera return, but I very much like what we've gotten for Chafin and Rizzo. Kudos to Hoyer and team.

A note on the Cubs' farm system. Where they're rated middle of the pack by Fangraphs, FG also noted that the Cubs are among a small handful of teams with extreme upside at the lower levels of the minors, and that they are very likely to rank significantly higher next year. That's before trade deadline activity. I suspect that by the end of the season, we'll be widely considered a top-10 system, if not higher.
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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #2076 on: July 29, 2021, 07:15:32 pm »
Look at what heyward’s contract has done to the Cubs ability to spend. There is only a $5 AAV difference between the Heyward and Hosmer.
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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #2077 on: July 29, 2021, 07:22:36 pm »
Heyward set to make $44M over 2 years, or $22M/yr. Hosmer set to make $59M over 4 years, or $14.75M/yr. $7.25M difference per year. Another way to think about it: Heyward costs approx 50% more than Hosmer. Hosmer also has an opt-out after next year, so if he thinks he can beat 3/$39 on the market it's even less of a commitment. (I doubt he'll exercise the opt-out.)

Yes, $14.75M is a significant overpay for Hosmer, but if that puts an Abrams, Gore, or Campusano on the table, could very well be worth it.

KB, Kimbrell (and cash?) for Hosmer and the entire SDP farm system :)
« Last Edit: July 29, 2021, 07:24:37 pm by ticohans »
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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #2078 on: July 29, 2021, 07:22:57 pm »
Jordan Bastian

The Rizzos are walking around Wrigley Field, getting some final photos here.

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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #2079 on: July 29, 2021, 07:24:04 pm »
Quote from: CUBluejays on July 29, 2021, 07:15:32 pm
Look at what heyward’s contract has done to the Cubs ability to spend. There is only a $5 AAV difference between the Heyward and Hosmer.

Yeah, it would be gross.  An argument might be that *IF* you scouted/developed/lucked-out super well, *if* a Hosmer/Kimbrel package turned into *TWO* good starting players, occupying a couple of spots with cheap young 6-year-control guys might be good value for $13/year?  I'm not suggesting that's a good argument.  Just that *IF* the Cubs were to hypothetically make such a deal, I don't expect it would be a logic-less decision.  And that it's probably so illogical that it won't happen.  :):)
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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #2080 on: July 29, 2021, 07:25:43 pm »
Quote from: ticohans on July 29, 2021, 07:22:36 pm
Heyward set to make $44M over 2 years, or $22M/yr. Hosmer set to make $59M over 4 years, or $14.75M/yr. $7.25M difference per year. Another way to think about it: Heyward costs approx 50% more than Hosmer. Hosmer also has an opt-out after next year, so if he thinks he can beat 3/$39 on the market it's even less of a commitment. (I doubt he'll exercise the opt-out.)

Yes, $14.75M is a significant overpay for Hosmer, but if that puts a Abrams, Gore, or Campusano on the table, could very well be worth it.

KB, Kimbrell (and cash?) for Hosmer and the entire SDP farm system :)

The cash isn’t the issue. It is the AAV at $18 million that will be used to calculate whatever salary limit is. Heyward’s AAV is $23 million.  Say the luxury tax/salary cap is $250 million in the future, Hosmer will account for 7% of that for 4 years. Heyward and Hosmer would be 16% of that for 2 years.

Marquee breaking to a Rizzo interview in 10-15 minutes.
« Last Edit: July 29, 2021, 07:32:52 pm by CUBluejays »
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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #2081 on: July 29, 2021, 07:27:46 pm »
As we think about what it would mean to eat Hosmer's contract, note that a 60FV grade hitter (Abrams) is worth about $55M. A 55FV grade hitter (Campusano) is worth about $46M. A 55FV grade pitcher (Gore) is worth about $34M.
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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #2082 on: July 29, 2021, 07:28:25 pm »
Quote from: CUBluejays on July 29, 2021, 07:25:43 pm
The cash isn’t the issue. It is the AAV at $18 million that will be used to calculate whatever salary limit is. Marquee breaking to a Rizzo interview in 10-15 minutes.

Is that how lux tax threshold works for traded players? Did not know.
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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #2083 on: July 29, 2021, 07:34:48 pm »
Quote from: ticohans on July 29, 2021, 07:28:25 pm
Is that how lux tax threshold works for traded players? Did not know.
Same, I didn't realize that either.  Helpful. 
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Re: Cubs in '21
« Reply #2084 on: July 29, 2021, 07:38:07 pm »
Quote from: ticohans on July 29, 2021, 07:28:25 pm
Is that how lux tax threshold works for traded players? Did not know.

The luxury tax would be the AAV - any retention. For midseason it would be the percent of the season multiplied by the AAV.



If it was going to be Hassell, Hosmer and $30 million for career minor leaguer and the Cubs could move the cash to the end of the contract then great. Otherwise it is a big nope for me.
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