Author Topic: Hot Stove 2011  (Read 5101 times)

Jes Beard

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Re: Hot Stove 2011
« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2011, 06:32:22 pm »
Fangraphs article about Martin Prado's value, which concludes by determining he's worth more than he'll get paid but shouldn't cost much in a trade

I love seeing things like that.... because they make so little sense.

They amount to the following:

"No on else is sharp enough to know what I do, that this guy is really pretty good.  No one else knows it.  Not his GM or any other GM in the game.  And even though I am here in print in something the entire world can see am explaining why he is worth more than his team or other teams think, and even though I believe what I have written will persuade you, and I hope it will also persuade the Cubs, it clearly won't persuade any GM's in the game so the Cubs could get him for a song."

Its almost as if they think they write in invisible ink that only Cub fans and Cub management can read....

brjones

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Re: Hot Stove 2011
« Reply #16 on: November 07, 2011, 04:50:28 pm »
According to MLB Trade Rumors, the Marlins are meeting with (and may have already made an offer to) Jose Reyes.  Both Pujols and Fielder are also on their radar, with Ozzie pushing hard for one of them.  Don't know how much of that I believe...

davep

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Re: Hot Stove 2011
« Reply #17 on: November 07, 2011, 06:45:03 pm »
It is hard to imagine that the Marlins can draw enough fans to pay for any of the three players.

StrikeZone

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Re: Hot Stove 2011
« Reply #18 on: November 07, 2011, 11:42:52 pm »
It is hard to imagine that the Marlins can draw enough fans to pay for any of the three players.

That's never stopped the Marlins from signing players before.

Cactus

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Re: Hot Stove 2011
« Reply #19 on: November 08, 2011, 12:08:40 pm »
Royals interested in Carlos Zambrano

http://www.csnchicago.com/blog/cubs-talk/post/Kaplan-Royals-interested-in-Zambrano?blockID=590086&feedID=661&awid=6050278776360301231-914

That has to be unlikely.    Big Z likes to hit too much

davep

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Re: Hot Stove 2011
« Reply #20 on: November 08, 2011, 03:06:55 pm »
"That way if he was a problem in the clubhouse or did not perform on the field they could release him without absorbing a major financial blow. "

If the Cubs are going to eat the contract if Zambrano acts up at the new club, why not just keep him, and eat the contract if he acts up with his old club.

If the new management get's rid of Zambrano just to get rid of him, they are no smarter than the old management.  Zambrano has been a successful pitcher, and his value has certainly surpassed any "chemistry" problems.  He isn't worth 18 million per year, but if they have to eat, say 13 million just to get rid of him, they certainly won't bet a more valuable pitcher to replace him for 5 million.

Just keep him, and let his manager earn his money.

brjones

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Re: Hot Stove 2011
« Reply #21 on: November 08, 2011, 03:10:06 pm »
He isn't worth 18 million per year, but if they have to eat, say 13 million just to get rid of him, they certainly won't bet a more valuable pitcher to replace him for 5 million.

If he pitches how he did in 2011, I'm not sure that's true. 

CurtOne

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Re: Hot Stove 2011
« Reply #22 on: November 08, 2011, 03:17:18 pm »
"That way if he was a problem in the clubhouse or did not perform on the field they could release him without absorbing a major financial blow. "

If the Cubs are going to eat the contract if Zambrano acts up at the new club, why not just keep him, and eat the contract if he acts up with his old club.

If the new management get's rid of Zambrano just to get rid of him, they are no smarter than the old management.  Zambrano has been a successful pitcher, and his value has certainly surpassed any "chemistry" problems.  He isn't worth 18 million per year, but if they have to eat, say 13 million just to get rid of him, they certainly won't bet a more valuable pitcher to replace him for 5 million.

Just keep him, and let his manager earn his money.

I'll repeat what I said a while back.  As an administrator I have NEVER regretted giving a student a second chance.  I have ALWAYS regretted giving a student a third chance.

He who ignores history is doomed to repeat it.

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.

Or having Dutch genes.

davep

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Re: Hot Stove 2011
« Reply #23 on: November 08, 2011, 03:57:53 pm »
If he pitches how he did in 2011, I'm not sure that's true. 

No one on the staff won more than a single game more than Zambrano did.  And he had an ERA about equal to Dempster, who will be on the team next year.

davep

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Re: Hot Stove 2011
« Reply #24 on: November 08, 2011, 04:02:37 pm »
I'll repeat what I said a while back.  As an administrator I have NEVER regretted giving a student a second chance.  I have ALWAYS regretted giving a student a third chance.

He who ignores history is doomed to repeat it.

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.

Or having Dutch genes.

Would you expel a student that was late a third time?

It isn't like Zambrano killed a team member, or voted for Obama.  He had an adolescent fit after ONE game during the year, and said some stupid things.  he can do that once a year forever, and still be a valuable pitcher.  It is extremely unlikely that the Cubs will have 5 starting pitchers next year that will outperform Zambrano.

Curt seems to be extremely concerned with a Dutchman's jeans.

brjones

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Re: Hot Stove 2011
« Reply #25 on: November 08, 2011, 04:23:29 pm »
No one on the staff won more than a single game more than Zambrano did.  And he had an ERA about equal to Dempster, who will be on the team next year.

Pitching wins are meaningless.  All you have to do is look at Matt Garza's win total compared to anyone else on this team, and that becomes clear.

All Dempster's peripherals (K%, BB%, HR%) were right in line with where he had been the last several years.  According to Fangraphs, his fielding independent stats (FIP and xFIP) were virtually identical to 2009 and 2010, and just a little worse than 2008.  After his awful April, the results matched the peripherals too.  He threw 200 innings.  He was about the same pitcher he has been since 2009, but with terrible luck for the first month of the season. 

In contrast, Zambrano's K% cratered.  His HR% skyrocketed.  He hasn't thrown 200 innings in a season since 2007, so I think it's safe to say his days as a real innings eater are over.  To his credit, his BB% dropped.  And his FIP and xFIP both showed him to be a little unlucky (though not nearly as unlucky as Dempster).  But there were definitely some warning signs in his peripherals that he should have struggled.

There's no upside to Zambrano anymore.  He's a lame duck mid-rotation starter if everything goes right, but more likely a back end guy who may erupt at any time.  You can find several back end starters on the market for $5 million or so who haven't been suspended by their own team 2 years in a row.  It's time to move on.  And I'm saying this as someone who has been one of the few consistent Zambrano supporters on this board for the last 3-4 years.

CurtOne

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Re: Hot Stove 2011
« Reply #26 on: November 08, 2011, 04:24:14 pm »
"Would you expel a student that was late a third time?"

Oh, good grief.  I'm talking about an offense that would normally lead to suspension or expulsion.  I've given second chances when, perhaps, I should have expelled someone.  Third chances are too many.

He beat up his own catcher.  He showed up teammates on the field.  He threw one temper tantrum after another in the dugout.  He murdered several Gatorade machines in cold gatorade.  He walked out on his team.  There are class organizations that wouldn't have tolerated one of those events, much less several.

Deeg

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Re: Hot Stove 2011
« Reply #27 on: November 08, 2011, 04:28:55 pm »
Ask Michael Barrett how trivial Zambrano's tantrums have been.

davep

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Re: Hot Stove 2011
« Reply #28 on: November 08, 2011, 04:44:56 pm »
Teams that get rid of good players because of "temper tantrums" don't do very well over the long run.  And Gatorade machines are rather cheap.  He walked out on his team, as, I remember, did Sandberg a couple of times.

I don't know what you believe are class organizations, but the old time Yankees, the St Louis Gas House Gang and the Oakland As had much more turmoil in their clubhouses, and still played at a rather high level.

Dennis Rodman created much more controversy with the Bulls than Zambrano did with the Cubs, and yet added much to the team.

I would expect a little league team to refuse to deal with this type of behavior.  A major league franchaise has to be reasonable.

davep

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Re: Hot Stove 2011
« Reply #29 on: November 08, 2011, 04:46:43 pm »
Pitching wins may be meaningless over one season, but hardly over a long career.  How many starting pitchers that have been in the league more than 5 years have a higher won/loss percentage than Zambrano?