Author Topic: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)  (Read 55182 times)

craig

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Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
« Reply #15 on: November 07, 2014, 05:30:15 pm »
Hannemann has really turned it on lately.  His AFL numbers look good. 

I know that guys get hot and guys get cold, and neither lasts forever.  But I'm super gullible and optimistic.  So for a guy like Hannemann who's played so little, a little hot streak still makes me hope that he's figured something out that will last.  That he'll maybe be a good major league hitter, even though he was only a .682 guy in A-ball at age 23.  Would be really fun if a guy like that exploded and emerged as a solid .290-hitter with a .350-OBP and good CF defense. 

I assume with Almora in tennessee they'll repeat Hannemann at Daytona this year.   


DelMarFan

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Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
« Reply #16 on: November 07, 2014, 06:11:52 pm »
Apparently things have been going so well for the franchise lately that no one even bothered to mention that Vitters was released.

davep

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Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
« Reply #17 on: November 07, 2014, 06:17:13 pm »
Perhaps a distinction without a difference, but I believe he became a 6 year free agent.

guest61

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Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
« Reply #18 on: November 07, 2014, 07:14:02 pm »
That top 5 pick didnt work out.

Wasnt he supposed to be the best bat in that draft?

davep

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Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
« Reply #19 on: November 07, 2014, 07:23:54 pm »
Yep.  Many high draft picks fail.

StrikeZone

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Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
« Reply #20 on: November 07, 2014, 10:09:52 pm »
Vitters over Wieters.  Genius.

Reb

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Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
« Reply #21 on: November 07, 2014, 10:34:29 pm »
Starling Peralta signed a minor league successor contract with Cubs, passing up free agency. He will be eligible for the Rule 5.

Reb

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Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
« Reply #22 on: November 07, 2014, 10:44:10 pm »
Vitters over Wieters.  Genius.

Not sure it's any consolation, but it wasn't a scouting assessment. Wieters got a $6.0 bonus---more than the #1 pick David Price ($5.6). Cubs ownership at the time didn't want to pay the bonus Wieters demanded. Vitters signed for $3.2.

CUBluejays

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Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
« Reply #23 on: November 07, 2014, 10:52:53 pm »
Ownership was diverting money away from the draft into free agency to juice attendance to increase the selling price.  I believe the rumor was that KC was going to take Vitters and the Cubs would have taken Jarred Parker instead.  KC switched to Moustakis at some point near the draft and the Cubs went with the hitter over the pitcher.

Reb

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Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
« Reply #24 on: November 07, 2014, 11:00:23 pm »
Royals switched to Moustakis morning of draft day.

Yeah, Parker would have been the pick, but Parker would have been a headache now with two TJ surgeries.

By the way, Wieters is a pending post-2015 FA.

Jes Beard

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Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
« Reply #25 on: November 08, 2014, 02:42:22 am »
Just looked at Vogelbach's stats.
His first full season after the draft was 2012.
2012 AZL/Boise 1.051 OPS/.641 slg
2013 KC/Daytona .824/.449 (90% the season was in KC, but he actually did better for Daytona -- .895 to .824)
2014 Daytona .787/.429
2014 AFL .697/.300 in 60 AB

Not a good trendline.

craig

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Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
« Reply #26 on: November 08, 2014, 09:05:45 am »
Two uniques for Parker, that I doubt apply to anybody else:
1.  Parker was ranked by BA as a top-50 prospect for five straight years, without ever cracking the top 25.
2.  He was #36 going into 2010, missed the whole season..... and moved up to BA's #33 spot entering 2011. 

Also flukey is that he's had six seasons in which he pitched >4 games in a league.  His ERA has been in the 3's every single time. 

craig

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Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
« Reply #27 on: November 08, 2014, 09:46:01 am »
Agree, jes.  What gets me particularly is the slugging.  No slug = no succeed. 

Hopefully we'll see a rebound this year.  As JR has said, going from anti-HR FSL to pro-HR Tennessee could boost his numbers quite a bit.  I'd also imagine/hope/expect that either Vogelbach or somebody in the Cub coaching are aware that he's not going to have either Cub-value or trade-value if he doesn't slug a lot more. Probably it's just beyond his talents to do so, and that's it.  But when some of these other scouts still seem to think he's got this 60-slugging rating, maybe there still is some latent slugging potential, and perhaps some adjustment or change in confidence will help find it?  We're fans, why not hope so. 

The one adjustment I'd think might work would be to simply be more aggressive.  In other words, hack more and hack earlier.  He's been a better than 2BB/3K guy at every step, which is pretty unusual.  His best (only?) standout skill thus far, really, has been his high-walk rate, and that's been true again in AFL.  It's pretty impressive, really.  Given that BB/K rate, I wonder if he might not be able to make some of five adjustments:

1.  Swing more aggressively early in counts.  Don't take so many pitch-ones, which is often the most hittable pitch and often where you see more fastballs.  That will surely come at the expense of reduced walks, no question.  But, the K's will also drop some to offset that, and if you get more HR hits the OBP may dwindle little and the slugging may rise substantially?  And who knows, perhaps with more slugging you'll get more respect walks anyway...

2.  Just swing for the fences more.  A little more leg kick, a little longer swing, a little earlier commitment to the weight shift needed for long balls.  Given his very controlled K-rate, he's got space to make some compromises without going K-crazy dead.  If he compromises some on his K's, but gets enough more HR's, it's worth it. 

3.  Guess more?  Baez usually guesses wrong and often misses even when he guesses right, but he's guessed right enough to slug his way to the majors. Perhaps Vogelbach should guess more often and take bigger long-ball swings on his guesses.  Obviously you'll K more that way, but again he can afford to K-more. 

4.  Adjust swing plane slightly in the uppercut direction?  Bryant and Schwarber had GO/AO ratios between 0.6-0.7, and when Soler was killing AA he was below 0.7  too.  (He grounded out a lot once he got to Iowa and Chicago, though...)  Not sure how you adjust a swing path slightly, but if there is some possible adjustment that could give Vogelbach a little more lift and get fly balls, that might help him.  With his lack of speed, I'm sure infielders can play super deep on him, and that he may cost a lot of stats-invisible outs via hitting into DP's.  So ground balls can't be his friend.

5.  Intentionally try to pull more?  Opposite-field power is great, and he's got at least some.  But a lot of long balls come via pulling.  Not sure how that would work.  He just decides to try?  Commit his swing a hair earlier, at risk of more bad swings?  Shifts his stance by a couple degrees so his feet are slightly more likely to step-in-the-bucket?  Move an inch or two closer to the plate?  I don't know. 

My understanding is that he has kind of tried some of these things, without success.  I think a story was that early last spring, he WAS trying to pull and swing for the fences, with no success.  Maybe that means he's got no chance; but maybe he overdid it, or just didn't stick with it long enough, or maybe that was a myth. 

Certainly most hitters are constantly looking for adjustments that give them more success.  Who has more invested and gives more thought than the hitter himself?  So in most cases, I think hitters really have pretty much self-optimized their game and stance and approach and swing plane and all that stuff.  Probably Vogelbach has done so, too, and has found that any of my stupid simplistic notions make him worse. 

But somehow, someway, the slugging needs to trend back up or his career isn't going big-league. 

Reb

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Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
« Reply #28 on: November 08, 2014, 01:31:18 pm »
Lifted this from Cubs Den--Kris Bryant 2014 spray chart.  Helps explain how Bryant hits for average while striking out a lot.

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/files/2014/11/bryant-spray-chart.png

Jes Beard

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Re: On The Farm (11/14 - 08/15)
« Reply #29 on: November 08, 2014, 02:40:00 pm »
Not exactly a pull hitter there, at least not when he puts it in the air.  Quite encouraging.