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Bad managing, bad baserunning by their checked out leader (Baez got pulled for a much less egregious baserunning mistake)...and the Cubs lose.

Hit probability on Molina’s game winning hit was 33%.

In other words, if Heyward is out there, the ball very likely is caught.  Wisdom in RF (??) not even close to getting it.

Happened because Ross hit Chirinos for Heyward in top of the inning. If facing a nasty lefty, could see that. But, TJ McFarland?  That move disrupted defensive setup, which is bad but even worse with an inherited runner to deal with. Ross played it like it was bottom of inning and might not have to play defense at all if scored.

Also caused by Ross burning Alcantara to pinch run for Sogard in 9th inning, a marginal running upgrade. That also meant Ross would have had to use a pitcher to hit in the 11th, had game got there. Further, as JD pointed out on the broadcast, once Arenado walked to set up a DP in 10th, you have to switch Hoerner back to 2B and Chirinos to 3B, so can turn a DP, no?

Also, inexplicable to pitch to Arenado in 10th when his run means nothing. Even for Kimbrel, a tough matchup. Arenado walked anyway, as it turned out, but a tough 7 pitches for Kimbrel there in second inning of work. Makes me wonder if Ross didn’t walk Arenado because not keen about setting up a DP grounder with Chirinos playing 2B. Hope that wasn’t why.

In any case, not a clinic in good managing late in a game.

Yeah, very poor baserunning by Rizzo in 10th inning.

But, if a GM makes a decision about Rizzo’s future here based on Rizzo’s baserunning acumen in tonight’s game, that GM would be an idiot. So, guessing decision will be more complicated than that.

When Joe Maddon first got to Cubs and encouraged more aggressive baserunning, Rizzo was too often running into outs with hyper-aggressive baserunning. Not really an instinctive baserunner.

Tonight, no clue what Rizzo was thinking. Kind of Baserunning 101 that you run to home on a DP grounder like this. Seriously, I wonder if being the “inherited runner” in extras bamboozled his brain on this one.

I think Rizzo more than any other player is distracted by his contract situation.

What was his excuse last season?

I'm not worried about a bonehead play on the bases, as irritating as that is.  I'm worried about clear signs of offensive decline from a guy into his 30s who by all accounts isn't exactly a health and workout freak.  And his vaunted clubhouse presence doesn't seem to have accounted for much the past few seasons.  If you don't have the balls to trade him for a marginal prospect and take the bad press, let him walk and take the pick.

What was his excuse last season?

Last season, Rizzo was a 3 bWAR player, if you pro rata for the short season.

Baez was a 2.3 bWAR player, pro rated.

I’m for offering Rizzo market value, taking into account myriad variables, including how the market for him may form or is likely to form. We can break down those variables in detail but you’re only into good or bad and nothing in between.

In the real world, a baseball club cannot do what you just did:  offer a player you don’t want a near $20M QO and then assume he won’t take it.

Gosh, my only point was that Rizzo was a player that would MOST be affected by his contract status, not that that was the sole reason for his poor play.  Players say all the time that they won't negotiate during the season?  Why?  Distraction and inability to concentrate on their routine.   Players make mistakes and look bad at times because of trade rumors, an error they made the last inning, a batting slump.  Does that mean that at the moment they're thinking I need to think contract while they're in between bases?  Get real.  But if they aren't in their normal "baseball space" they can do dumb things.  Even posters do that.

Well, Craig, Deeg said that Rizzo will NEVER take a QO….and we should know that.

But, tend to agree with you that Rizzo might take a QO at near $20.  In any case, It’s a good starting point for Cubs/Rizzo——offer $20 for year one and work from that in multi-year terms, at lower levels as he ages.

Not a great time for fans to evaluate a guy after a very bad game and in the midst of a slump. And not buying into the argument that free agency affecting his concentration on the field or pre-game routine. Lindor having a bad season AFTER he signed a big contract. In both cases, probably a coincidence. Veteran guys of Rizzo’s stature know to leave that stuff to their agents. A million different reasons why guys get cold, get hot, make stupid plays—-including unexplainable random chance. Just the nature of the game.