Here’s the thing about Alzolay that makes him a potential mid-rotation guy (rather than a back-end guy): Alzolay has a Plus pitch. He had a 60 value slider. It’s a really good major league slider, way above average.
A back-end guy, for me, is a guy with average stuff all around. If he has command that day, he can have a good day. Think of Alec Mills, a guy who does NOT have a Plus pitch. A guy like Mills can even pitch a no-hitter on a given great day, but has stuff linitations.
Hendricks became Hendricks, in part, because from day one in majors, he had a Plus pitch as a foundation.
Right now, Alzolay is basically a 2-pitch pitcher—-with inconsistent command and is really hurt when the heater floats into the hitting zone. Hence, the lefty homer problem. He works close to 94, which is fine but, because he has a limited repertoire, he tends to pay a price with the occasional good-pitch-to-hit happens.
Put another way, he needs a third pitch that is a legit average major league pitch. Not even an above-average third pitch but an average pitch that he can command and throws with confidence—-something a hitter had to think about so will more often foul off a meaty heater or misplaced slider. Guys with a repertoire, or a Plus Plus pitch (think of Buehler’s heater) get away with mistakes that the current version of Alzolay almost never seems to get away with.
So, say, Alzolay can improve the change-up as an average major league pitch, which is HARD to accomplish, think we’ll get very different results from him.
But, the Plus pitch—which he already has—is a big deal. An important foundation. Of course, he’s not a kid anymore, so maybe he is what he is. Really like his mound demeanor, so don’t think he’ll be undermined by disappointing results so far.