Author Topic: Today's Game - 2021  (Read 75460 times)

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Re: Today's Game - 2021
« Reply #2985 on: August 24, 2021, 10:05:08 am »
I was hoping for more from Alzolay but he has taken a step in the right direction, IMO.  I'll be disappointed if he doesn't take another step next season (#2/3 level starter by season's end).

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Re: Today's Game - 2021
« Reply #2986 on: August 24, 2021, 10:22:27 am »
I was hoping for more from Alzolay but he has taken a step in the right direction, IMO.  I'll be disappointed if he doesn't take another step next season (#2/3 level starter by season's end).

#2/3 seems more than I'd anticipate.  But making some adjustments/improvements and increases in consistency, I'm hoping for that for sure. 

I'd be curious to see what Hottovy's analysis will be on all of the HR's.  It's really all the HR's that kills him.  His K-rate is fine (9.6), his K/BB is good (3.3), his WHIP is good (1.20).  All of those numbers seem fine for a capable mid-rotation guy who could be part of the rotation skeleton.  But 2.0 HR/9IP, that's terrible and that's what kills him. 

I have no idea how that splits.  Is there a lefty/righty thing going on with the HRs?  Are those heavily on mis-placed hit-me fastballs?  Hanging sliders? All of those things?  I guess I'm wondering if there's a particular vulnerability that he's had this year, with a chance to be remediated to at least partial degree?  If he could get that down to a more anti-awful 1.3 or something, he's got a totally different ERA. 

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Re: Today's Game - 2021
« Reply #2987 on: August 24, 2021, 10:46:42 am »
Are you encouraged by his year so far? He has shown flashes at times. Hopefully he keeps improving as he matures. That is what next year will show. I am no scout, but he seems to lack a consistent out pitch. If he and one of Steele/Thompson could make it. The Cubs could afford one free agent top end starter and there you have a competitive rotation. Marquez emerging healthy and dominant next year would sure uncomplicate things.

Alzolay makes me think of Geremi Gonzalez so far.  There are some things to work with, and you have to give him credit for staying in the rotation the whole season, which is a pretty under-appreciated thing in the modern game.  Still, yeah there's always a mistake or two too many so far with him, which is why a guy like Gonzalez comes to mind for me with him.  I don't know if missing some competitiveness or confidence is the right way to put it, but there's something missing he needs to find to take the next step up. 

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Re: Today's Game - 2021
« Reply #2988 on: August 24, 2021, 10:54:40 am »
I have no idea how that splits.  Is there a lefty/righty thing going on with the HRs?  Are those heavily on mis-placed hit-me fastballs?  Hanging sliders? All of those things?  I guess I'm wondering if there's a particular vulnerability that he's had this year, with a chance to be remediated to at least partial degree?  If he could get that down to a more anti-awful 1.3 or something, he's got a totally different ERA. 

Yeah lefties are killing him so far.  19 of his 24 homers have been against LH hitters.  They're OPS'ing .975 against him vs. .574 for RH hitters.

Actually looking at that, he might be destined for a relief role if he doesn't get that cleaned up.


Adbert Alzolay 2021 Pitching splits statistics including season totals, platoon splits, home and away stats, clutch situations and more on Baseball-Reference.com
baseball-reference.com
« Last Edit: August 24, 2021, 10:57:53 am by JR »

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Re: Today's Game - 2021
« Reply #2989 on: August 24, 2021, 10:57:17 am »
He's also faced RH's for 229 PA, and he's faced LH's for 215 PA, almost a 50-50 split.

Managers are stacking LH hitters against him in his starts, which can't be helpful for him.
« Last Edit: August 24, 2021, 11:02:03 am by JR »

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Re: Today's Game - 2021
« Reply #2990 on: August 24, 2021, 11:08:18 am »
He definitely needs something that will be effective against LHH...that should be his primary focus over the offseason.

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Re: Today's Game - 2021
« Reply #2991 on: August 24, 2021, 11:17:27 am »
Here’s the thing about Alzolay that makes him a potential mid-rotation guy (rather than a back-end guy):  Alzolay has a Plus pitch. He had a 60 value slider. It’s a really good major league slider, way above average.

A back-end guy, for me, is a guy with average stuff all around. If he has command that day, he can have a good day. Think of Alec Mills, a guy who does NOT have a Plus pitch. A guy like Mills can even pitch a no-hitter on a given great day, but has stuff linitations.

Hendricks became Hendricks, in part, because from day one in majors, he had a Plus pitch as a foundation.

Right now, Alzolay is basically a 2-pitch pitcher—-with inconsistent command and is really hurt when the heater floats into the hitting zone. Hence, the lefty homer problem. He works close to 94, which is fine but, because he has a limited repertoire, he tends to pay a price with the occasional good-pitch-to-hit happens.

Put another way, he needs a third pitch that is a legit average major league pitch. Not even an above-average third pitch but an average pitch that he can command and throws with confidence—-something a hitter had to think about so will more often foul off a meaty heater or misplaced slider. Guys with a repertoire, or a Plus Plus pitch (think of Buehler’s heater) get away with mistakes that the current version of Alzolay almost never seems to get away with.

So, say, Alzolay can improve the change-up as an average major league pitch, which is HARD to accomplish, think we’ll get very different results from him.

But, the Plus pitch—which he already has—is a big deal. An important foundation. Of course, he’s not a kid anymore, so maybe he is what he is. Really like his mound demeanor, so don’t think he’ll be undermined by disappointing results so far.

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Re: Today's Game - 2021
« Reply #2992 on: August 24, 2021, 11:19:50 am »
He definitely needs something that will be effective against LHH...that should be his primary focus over the offseason.

Yes, that sounds clear and obvious as can be.  If he's going to have a future in rotation, he and Hottovy need to come up with something that works.  If they can't, he's not going to stick. 

My guess is that they don't like to mess with things and be introducing new pitches mid-season.  I almost wonder whether shutting him down now, so that he's got more serious pitch-lab time to look for a new grip and some new movement, wouldn't make best sense.  19 LH HR's, it's pretty clear what needs attention.  If actual big-league games isn't the best place to fix it, put him in the place that is. 

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Re: Today's Game - 2021
« Reply #2993 on: August 24, 2021, 11:21:11 am »
He does have a generally good mound presence, but he started to show some frustration in the couple of starts before his IL stint.  Growing pains.

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Re: Today's Game - 2021
« Reply #2994 on: August 24, 2021, 11:51:23 am »
I was surprised that he didn't show more frustration.  Not sure why, but he seemed to draw the weakest hitting support when he pitched.   Contreras, Bryant, Rizzo, Baez...at least 2 if not 3 sitting when his spot came up.  It was odd.  I don't think it's how you generally try to show a rookie support.  Then, he often was taken out at the end of 5, so he was denied a number of quality starts.  His record isn't indicative of his potential.
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Re: Today's Game - 2021
« Reply #2995 on: August 24, 2021, 03:35:15 pm »

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Re: Today's Game - 2021
« Reply #2996 on: August 24, 2021, 05:31:40 pm »
For Alzolay, I think it all comes down to developing a 3rd pitch that more effectively handles LH hitters. Looking at the data, I think this is where the HR problem lies. It's not that he's homer-prone, it's that he's very bad vs LHH.

Not sure if the needed additional pitch is the curve or change, but Alzolay throws both, and both have had good results from a pitch-value perspective historically...

If he can be anti-awful vs LHH, I think he's got a pretty clear path to #3 type, with upside from there. If he can't, he's a high-leverage bullpen guy (which may also follow from his injury history). Don't think there's a lot of in-between for him. Doubt he settles in as a #4-5 type, because the LHH problems are *that* bad.
 

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Re: Today's Game - 2021
« Reply #2997 on: August 24, 2021, 05:54:55 pm »
The tarp is on the field


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Re: Today's Game - 2021
« Reply #2998 on: August 24, 2021, 06:21:21 pm »
no Hermosillo!   I guess they need to get Heyward going
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Re: Today's Game - 2021
« Reply #2999 on: August 24, 2021, 06:46:40 pm »
Gordon Wittenmyer

Getting word this game is in process of being rescheduled as part of a 1pm, 5pm doubleheader tomorrow.