Bleacher Bums Forum

Yeah, high bidder usually believes or gambles that they'll get the best version back.  Jays with Cease 4.55 ERA; Cubs with imanaga; Gallen's high bidder will think they can fix his 4.88 ERA; King's high bidder will think his injuries might be past flukes, and his stuff will hold up; Imai's high bidder will think his velocity will hold up, his recent improvement in control will be sustainable, and that his stuff is not Badler's mid-rotation guy but is high-end stuff. 

Gallen may not be as good as Assad, we don't know.  But that's the chance you take with a pitcher, and there's good reason to think he might bounce back.  Cubs have done pretty well with ID'ing stuff in vet pitchers and helping them, and of course we've got a great defense which should help any pitcher.  Gallen historically has tended to be something of a groundball guy, which would be a great fit with us, whether Shaw or Bregman were 3B.

Pitching in Wrigley for half his starts and in front of our defense would certainly help in getting back to 2024 (and earlier) results.

He’s the Dansby Swanson of this years SP class, and would be a good fit, IMO.

Deeg, you made a great point earlier this week.  If you target Imai, do you want to risk losing on him and having the others gone?  Wait till January, Gallen-King-Suarez-Valdes are all gone, the Mets and/or Yankees end up bidding crazy high, or Imai just loves big New York even if you match or exceed their offers? 

But yeah, don't imagine $80/4 is going to do it.  I imagine Gallen will go over projections.  Maybe more $90/4?

Not sure how to imagine how pitcher fits into Hoyer's budget thinking.  Suppose he hopes that both Tucker and Bregman prices will end up being pretty good value-per-dollar.  Just for thought, I'll use Bregman. 

Does Hoyer hope that he might fit both Bregman AND one of the big-ticket pitchers?  If so, maybe Bregman + Imai would be too much.  But Bregman with King, or Bregman with Gallen, could squeeze in?  If he could fit in two starters like that, I'd be pretty fired up.  I imagine that Tucker might cost enough more than Bregman that even Gallen+Tucker might be too much. 

I also wonder how Hoyer handles budget.  I kinda think only in terms of lux calculation.  But if Hoyer is actually using real year-by-year costs, would $20-25M posting fee for Imai count against Hoyer's budget and knock off a reliever or two?  No idea how that works. 

Assume Hoyer does NOT see space for both Gallen and a big-name position starter, not Bregman or Tucker, Bichette, Bellinger, or Alonso...

Then *IF* he signs Gallen or King in the more modest $22-24 range, what will he do with the other $30M? 

Probably that can go in a flash.  Keller-priced reliever, cheaper relievers, backup utility guys. 

So yeah, we're probably getting only one starter, unless we indirectly get a starting 3B because Shaw hits his way to the bench. 

Assuming we get only the one starter, then it seems to me there isn't that much budget pressure to scrimp on the starting pitcher.  If you like Gallen or King best, sure, get your best guy.  But *IF* you actually like Suarez better, I don't think you'd sign Gallen over Suarez because he's maybe $4M cheaper.  Even if your pitcher is $25 or $28, instead of $22, I think you should still be able to fill out bullpen and utility with the remaining $30. 

I wonder if there is any chance they'd look at one of the seemingly pricier relievers?  BA has super cheap contract predictions for everybody, they have Gallen at $45/2 and Suarez at $75/3.  So I think they're often way off.  But like they have Robert Suarez at $54/3, and Diaz at $125/6.  What if Counsell is telling Hoyer having a knockout bullpen is really the way for post-season, and regular season too?  *IF* your scouting likes Suarez, what if you spend for BOTH Suarez and Keller?  If everybody worked out, having Suarez-Keller-Palencia-Maton could hypothetically be a really safe and deep back-end bullpen.  Keep everybody fresh.  Don't need to press starters for innings.  Be ready for playoffs. 

I'm kind of bullpen-obsessed, but yeah Hoyer's not going to do anything like that. 

Rosenthal reporting the Pirates made Schwarber an offer.  What are the odds the Pirates give out a bigger contact than the Cubs? 60/40?

Cubs being linked to Suarez, who TBH I'd be more interested in at 2-3 years than Bregman at 5.

I'd be pretty worried about either of them. I don't think Wrigley is ideal for Bregman and the back half of that contract (combined with Dansby's last few years) could give the Cubs a really rough left side of the infield in a couple years. And guys like Suarez who strike out 30% of the time are a real concern once they get into their mid-30s.

If they're going to spend on the infield, just pay for Bichette and put him at 2B. His injury history over the last 3 years is a little worrying. But because of that (and because almost no one who is willing to spend needs a shortstop this offseason), his contract is going to be closer to Swanson than Tucker. He's younger and should age better than the other two guys.