Bleacher Bums Forum
General Category => Archives => Topic started by: mO on October 23, 2017, 03:29:59 pm
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Yes, those thoughts are expressed in the article. But still, DRC+ purports to be a superior way of valuing/rating offensive performance. It is absurd for any system to rate Schwarber's 2018 season as superior to Baez'. Seems to me this raises very serious about the credibility of the system. Wonder if there are other similar obviously out of whack comparisons.
It depends what you want in a stat.
If you’re looking for insight into future performance—rather than what results the player actually achieved in 2018—then perhaps it’s going to be useful to look at a “deserved driven” stat.
Everybody wants to peek into the future or to win their fantasy baseball league or whatever. Think that a stat like this is based on that sensibility. Don’t know if it’s going to be successful for that purpose going forward, but don’t think a stat like this necessarily tells you accurately “what happened” in 2018.
Obviously, it’s absurd to say that Schwarber had a better 2018 offensive season than Baez. Nobody is going to buy that. But, maybe useful that, going forward, Schwarber could be better? or close?
I’ve been spending a lot of time lately reading up on historical player performance. In that respect, don’t really care much for predictive-type stats, such as pitcher FIP, for players whose career is long finished. For me, that’s just a curiosity and not a measurement of actual performance. So, think it would be unfortunate if predictive-type atats are ever used for career evaluation.
But, maybe different for ongoing careers. Remains to be seen.
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It is kinda addressed in the article, but Baez got downgraded because of his number of doubles and balls in play in the OF. Baez might just have a super freaky skill set that this stat can’t capture yet.
I think a better way to look at it is Baez might come back to earth and Schwarber might get better. They are both thought of as above average offensive players though.
Yes, those thoughts are expressed in the article. But still, DRC+ purports to be a superior way of valuing/rating offensive performance. It is absurd for any system to rate Schwarber's 2018 season as superior to Baez'. Seems to me this raises very serious about the credibility of the system. Wonder if there are other similar obviously out of whack comparisons.
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It is kinda addressed in the article, but Baez got downgraded because of his number of doubles and balls in play in the OF. Baez might just have a super freaky skill set that this stat can’t capture yet.
I think a better way to look at it is Baez might come back to earth and Schwarber might get better. They are both thought of as above average offensive players though.
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Sahadev Sharma has a new column about Baseball Prospectus' new offensive stat: DRC+.
https://theathletic.com/735357/2018/12/27/how-one-new-statistic-values-the-2018-cubs-differently/?source=dailyemail
If I understand the column correctly, according to DRC+, Schwarber (38th among players) ranks higher than Baez (45th) for 2018. Is that a correct reading, and if so, is there anyone who honestly believes Schwarber was a better offensive player than Baez in 2018?
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3:01 worth of Cubs 2018 highlights with Statcast numbers for each
https://www.mlb.com/video/best-of-statcast-cubs/c-2521474183
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Ron, thanks for good points. I hadn't been looking very carefully at the volume.
I'm not suggesting he might not be able to contribute offensively. Maybe yes, maybe no? I don't know whether he might clear 100 OPS+, and don't imagine Hoyer knows either. I've got no problem with taking a shot; but wouldn't count on him being an asset bat.
Uncertainty goes with Russell, too. Not defensively: we know if he's healthy his defense will be *really* good. But bat-wise, he's been OPS+ 74-84-94-91. So who know whether he'll be on the 74 end or the 94 end of his career range? With pitchers having a full book on him by now, and his confidence shattered , I'd guess he's more likely to be nearer the 74 end than the 94 end, and maybe he'll continue to get worse each year. But who knows, maybe some miracle will happen and he'll have a career year and go >94, and maybe become only slightly below average as a hitter? Who knows? I don't, Hoyer doesn't, nobody does.
That 2nd middle-infield position is up for grabs, and we don't know how any of Tulo, Russell, Bote, Zobrist, Descalso, or even Happ will hit. Would be wrong to promise anything more than an opportunity to Tulo. But it's not like there isn't an opportunity.
The fact that Toronto waived him, despite dozens of committed millions, suggests they who know him and his health best aren't super optimistic that he'll be able to become a good hitter again. But if the Cubs feel otherwise, it's not like Russell is such a sure thing that they couldn't consider other take-a-shot alternatives.
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Seems like Tulo’s career path might be similar to Garciaparra. Both seemed like HOF locks until around age 30. Great players.
Thing to remember about Nomar is that he wasn’t really a SS anymore next phase of his career. That’s why Theo traded him to Cubs. Was hurt a lot with Cubs of course and then was a 1B before too long. Of course, same with Ernie Banks at similar age moving to 1B.
So, would not assume Tulo going to be a viable MIFer for remainder of his career, even if can hit.
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On Tulo, it's been argued that he'd not have opportunity to start for the Cubs. I don't think that's true, apart from merit.
The Cubs have only Baez as a starting middle-infielder. If Tulo was worth starting, he could hypothetically win the other spot. Obviously Baez and Russell are better than Tulo defensively, whether at 2B or SS. But a Baez/Tulo combo, in either configuration, might be as good or better defensively than anything short of Baez/Russell.
The larger question is merit. Sure, Tulo hypothetically *could* win a starting job... *IF* he was healthy and *IF* he could hit. But in his last four seasons at Toronto, he's been no-play in 18, and OPS/OPS+ of .678/80; .761/102; and .697/89 the previous three seasons. So hitting-wise, he's been about as useless as Russell and Hayward.
Tulowitzky played in only one full season in Toronto. His first season was 2015 (183 AB), after being blind-sided and deeply upset by the trade from the Rockies. His only full season was following year, 2016, when he had an OPS of .761. He was injured in 2017 and played in only 66 games. I'm guessing his performance may have been related to his injury. His last full season before the trade (2014), he had an OPS of 1.035, and his OPS in 2015 before the trade was .818. Who knows what kind of player he'd be in 2019 and beyond, but I don't think his performance with the Blue Jays should necessarily preclude the potential for him to perform well going forward.
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On Tulo, it's been argued that he'd not have opportunity to start for the Cubs. I don't think that's true, apart from merit.
The Cubs have only Baez as a starting middle-infielder. If Tulo was worth starting, he could hypothetically win the other spot. Obviously Baez and Russell are better than Tulo defensively, whether at 2B or SS. But a Baez/Tulo combo, in either configuration, might be as good or better defensively than anything short of Baez/Russell.
The larger question is merit. Sure, Tulo hypothetically *could* win a starting job... *IF* he was healthy and *IF* he could hit. But in his last four seasons at Toronto, he's been no-play in 18, and OPS/OPS+ of .678/80; .761/102; and .697/89 the previous three seasons. So hitting-wise, he's been about as useless as Russell and Hayward.
Perhaps Tulo wouldn't want to try to compete with Bote, Descalzo, Zobrist, and Russell to win that job. But I'd think that might be almost as accessible a starting job as their might be.
I think that given that Russell is suspended for a chunk of the season; that he's been a bad bad hitter for several years; that he too is repeatedly injured; and that his personal-life garbage makes it unclear whether the Cubs will keep him; I think all of that makes it pretty obvious that the 2nd middle-infield starting spot is very wide-open.
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He was the biggest reason we won 95 despite regression and injuries.
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Ron, thanks for passing on that link about Baez! Excellent!
Deeg, you better check this one out! You were the 1st to talk about Baez as MVP.
He was truly awesome last season!
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Jon Greenberg has a nice article on Javy Baez, The Athletic's "Person of the Year."
https://theathletic.com/702440/2018/12/10/javier-baez-what-a-year-for-that-kid-who-made-cubs-baseball-fun/?source=weeklyemail
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 2h2 hours ago
Cubs award 68 full postseason shares, the most of any 2018 playoff team. Each full share worth $16,155.34. World Series champion Red Sox awarded 66 full shares ($416,837.72 per share), 10.025 partial shares, eight cash awards. Dodgers awarded 67 full shares ($262,027.49 per share
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I'm still really skeptical of Schwarber's defense. As soon as the league figures out they can't run on his arm, I don't think he provides any defensive value.
Crap, the comment I posted with that did not make it... so I'll try again.
Holding runners, even without throwing runners out, is of tremendous defensive value, and as soon as you mention the league figuring "out they can't run on his arm, that sounds like what you are talking about. The best outfield arms often do not lead the league in outfield assists.
Who knows, maybe some GM out there thinks he can catch twice a week. I don't think he's going to fetch anything huge when he's dealt, but it should certainly be more than negligible.
My hope with Contreras and Schwarber has always been then the Cubs can use the two of them in something of a rotation at catcher and LF, giving the primary catcher enough time playing the OF that his hands stayed fresh for hitting over the course of the season instead of getting beaten and bruised over the course of a full season of catching that the hitting performance seriously declined toward the end of the season. And even two days a week catching for Schwarber would be enough to accomplish that, much the way Stengal in the Yankees' glory days with Berra and Elston Howard both allowed to put up much better hitting numbers than they ever would have as a full-time catcher.
So for me the hope is that the GM who thinks he can do that is Hoyer with the Cubs. If two years after his injury Schwarber is in fact again physically able to catch, he offers far more potential value to the Cubs than to other teams (at least partly because Contreras also has a fair amount of experience in LF to make such a rotation feasible), and therefore would not be likely to draw as much from other teams in a trade as the value he could add himself to the Cubs in 2019.
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Second, I'm not sure that head-first sliding is either bad, or more risky than feet-first? Players slide a ton; is there anything wrong with head-first sliding versus feet-first sliding? And, even if head-first is somewhat more dangerous, can you imagine telling El-Mago to quit because it's too risky?
But I really question whether head-first actually is any more hazardous than feet-first, Bryant's injury while sliding hand-first not-withstanding? Hand-first would seem to be more vulnerable to jamming fingers, or perhaps hurting a wrist. But I almost feel like hard, late feet-first slides are almost as, or more risky, for ankle-injury as hand-first slides are for shoulder or wrist injury.
And to some degree I also wonder whether running through 1st base on a close play where you're really stretching to get beat the throw might not almost be equally as more risky?
*Getting hit in the head with a throw or a tag?
*Body-on-body collision, at risk to knees/ankles head/neck/ribs, if the throw is off-line and the 1B needs to step into the running path to catch the ball or make a tag?
*Pulled hamstring or pulled groin while trying to stretch to extend and reach the bag?
*Ankle injury when landing awkwardly on the bag?
*Tripping on either the bag or the 1B's foot, and falling awkwardly?
I would think you could run the stats and play the odds. There are probably an average of at least 20 plays every game in which players run thru first and likely no more than a couple of dozen (if that many) such plays resulting in the batter's injury. There are likely an average of at least 5 plays a game in which a player slides into one base or another and there are a relatively low number of injuries from such slides. But the headfirst slide is relatively rare, yet seems to result in a very disproportionally high rate of injuries from it. The issue would seem to be the frequency and severity of injury from each approach, not how many different ways you can imagine each approach resulting in injury.
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I wonder if Schwarber isn't inherently a likely to always underperform in clutch? He's an extreme splits guy. A HR hitter with just 1 HR versus LHP; and a slow lefty who likes to hit grounders into the shift. >200 points worse versus lefties.
In high-leverage situation, why would an opposing manager let him face a RHP? In the 2nd inning, they're not going to pull their RHP against Schwarber. But in late high-leverage, won't his numbers stink because opponents make him face lefties all the time, against whom he always kinda stinks?
Excellent point -- in other words Schwarber may not actually be anti-clutch at all, and may actually perform the same in the clutch as in a first inning AB, but because of his dramatic L/R splits and the use of top quality relievers in clutch situations, his stats are always likely to indicate he underperforms in the clutch.
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Very few GMs or Owners openly say they are unhappy with a particular manager, coach or player before they fire him. Doing so would generally be countproductive.
Imagine a world in which Donald Trump were a GM or an owner....
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Worth remembering that Yu's father is Iranian, so has a particular connection to events in that part of the world. Though he's generally been socially active, which is unusual for athletes here.
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Well done, Yu!
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Incidentally, Yu Darvish is currently involved in a major controversy here for defending Yasuda Junpei, a Japanese journalist who was kidnapped in Syria and held captive for three years. Yusuda was there trying expose the atrocities of the Assad regime, but bizarrely in Japan when journalists or even students are kidnapped abroad the nationalists (who pretty much run the government and mass media) blame them for being kidnapped and causing trouble for Japan.
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Jason Heyward is also a Gold Glove finalist. His competition is Jon Jay of Arizona and Nick Markakis of Atlanta.
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Seems like yesterday.
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Had to go back 19 years for a counter, huh?
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Baez played a lot of games at SS this year, that isn't going to help his chances.
Palmeiro hardly played any at first base, and still won it.
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Baez played a lot of games at SS this year, that isn't going to help his chances.
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I like Javy's chances. Rizzo's bunt defense should give him a shot too.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DqX8srQWsAIhkWv.jpg:small)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DqX6rFDWsAAyyMG.jpg:small)
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I didn't want to dignify my quip with purple.
I apologize for missing that delicious pun. Kudos.
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I agree that the everyday 8 needs a makeover.
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The offense is dysfunctional. If they don't add a couple really good hitters this offseason, Iapoce is going to have the same experience with this group that Davis and Mallee had the last two years.
Davis was a mistake, though. Late 80s/early 90s hitting strategy doesn't work in 2018.
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I didn't want to dignify my quip with purple.
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The truth hurts sometimes.
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Sorry, but that's a total hit piece.
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Interesting piece from Bruce Miles (who remains the best Cubs beat reporter by a wide margin) on the total clusterfrick the club has made of the hitting coach position:
http://bit.ly/2Pd8ENl
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Thats a good distinction, Curt. They've been ruthless with trading minor leaguers. But the only young major leaguer they've traded has been Soler, and Castro, two guys they didn't love.
Not sure what they can do now, though. Russell and Schwarber, their value drops year by year by year. There was a time when either could have been a centerpiece in a major deal; those days are gone. For two reasons. 1st, as club control shortens and arb salary increases, automatically the value drops. 2nd, when a guy is really young and new, projecting age-based improvement makes sense. That fades with each year of plateau-or-decline.
Assuming Baez, Bryant, and Rizzo are off-the-table, do we have others with major trade value? Deeg would consider shopping Contreras. But I don't imagine Schwarber, Happ, Russell, or Almora are all that appealing to anybody anymore.
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I didn't mean to dispute that the front office has fallen in love with some of their young players. I merely meant to say that the fact that they love them is not the reason they were not traded. Not a single young player (with the exception perhaps of Rizzo, if he is young) has yet reached their potential. (Obviously, some never will, but it is not that easy to identify those who will or will not reach that potential). I believe that they have not traded any of those you mentioned simply because they felt they had more long term value to the Cubs than the players they were offered in exchange.
The Cubs needed pitching. Many wanted them to trade Russell or Baez to get it. It is easy to say in hindsight that they should have traded Russell when they had a chance, but it would probably been a mistake to have traded Baez. Instead, they did not ignore their pitching problems. They merely tried to solve it through free agency. They didn't make a trade, not because then didn't want to trade a loved player, but because they didn't want to trade the WRONG loved player, as long as they had other, safer options.
It turned out that the safer options were not all that safe, but again, hindsight is not very helpful. Very few were unhappy with the signing of Darvish, and they got him without risking a trade of the wrong young player.
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"It is not true that the front office has fallen in love with the players they brought into the system, and have refused to trade them. They traded away their best young prospect for Chapman. They traded away their best hitting prospect, as well as their best young pitching prospect for Quintana. Candelario went for Wilson. A couple of younger ones went for Chavez and de la Rosa."
Dave, I agree with your whole post back on October 4, except the above paragraph. From the get go, the Cubs wanted to create a different culture, a family, a fun atmosphere that still knew how to win. As a result, players who helped create a solid clubhouse are treasured, those didn't, got shipped out. You offer as a counter that they have shipped out young players like Torres and Eloy for other players. Those players were not already IN Chicago, embraced by all the fans. You can't name many players or any players who became part of the Cub family, accepted and embraced by both front office and the fans, who've been traded. Schwarber, Russell, Almora, Happ, Baez, Contreras, Bryant, Rizzo, Hendricks, Edwards...all still here, though Russell may not be for long, and I think a few of those guys may have to go in a trade of some kind. Arrieta, Wilson, Lackey, Fowler, FA's, allowed to leave. Interesting that some like the atmosphere so much, Duensing and Fowler, they come back for less. When I say, the FO loves their players, that's not necessarily a bad thing. If they have a core that they believe in and creates the kind of team they want, why shouldn't they love them and hesitate to trade them? But I think there has been a genuine affection expressed for the guys on the field, including guys like Lester and Zobrist who were brought in. I interpret Theo's comments to mean that they need to work on overcoming those feelings as they strive to put a more dominant team on the field.
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Very few GMs or Owners openly say they are unhappy with a particular manager, coach or player before they fire him. Doing so would generally be countproductive. However, it is probably too large of a jump to think that not saying they are going to fire someone is proof that they are indeed going to do so.
Last year, many pointed out that the offense had declined, or at the very least, not improved over 2016. Last year, they fired the hitting coach. This year, it got even worse.
One year is much too small a sample size to evaluate any manager, hitting coach or pitching coach. There are just too many random variables.
If Bryant had had a healthy shoulder all year, how much better would he have been? If Russell had not hurt his hand in July, how much better would he have been? Did the production of Contreras go down because he was injured, because he was overworked, or because the hitting coach screwed him up? Could any coach level out the peaks and valleys of Baez's magnificent - horrible hitting streaks? Could any hitting coach restore Heyward to his pre-signing level. For that matter, could any hitting coach totally revamp the philosophy and lifelong techniques of an entire team in a single year?
I have always been under the belief that the Manager is of less importance to the performance of a team that at least 20 of the 25 man roster. Which is probably why many on the team with more than 5 years of experience is probably making more money than the manager. Epstein can try to pacify part of the fan base by firing a coach or manager, but regardless, he has to make decisions about his playing personnel.
But hindsight doesn't help much.
It is not true that the front office has fallen in love with the players they brought into the system, and have refused to trade them. They traded away their best young prospect for Chapman. They traded away their best hitting prospect, as well as their best young pitching prospect for Quintana. Candelario went for Wilson. A couple of younger ones went for Chavez and de la Rosa.
Two years ago, several recommended trading Schwarber. At that time, his trade value was quite high, and a trade would probably have worked out well for the Cubs. Two years ago, several recommended trading Baez. At that time his trade value was fairly high, and a trade would probably have worked out very badly for the Cubs.
Regardless of what we did or did not do two years ago, we live in the present. Schwarber will not bring back the quality of player that he would have brought two years ago. Nor would Almora or Russell. Or Happ. None of them would likely bring back players that will substantially improve either the offense or the defense. Would the value of the players received exceed the value of the potential of these players to achieve production that at matches their talent.
These are the decisions that Epstein and Hoyer have to make. As a fan, the only thing I have to judge their ability to make good decisions is to look at the success of the team over their tenure. I realize that many don't agree with me, but for the last four years, they have been the team I have longed for over the decades. They have been in the playoffs every year, winning the division three years and winning the World Series once. I see no reason why this performance can not continue over the next four years. And this is extremely good production. Even the best team in baseball has odds of 3 to 1 against them as they enter the playoffs. The teams are too closely matched, and each series is too short to prevent a lessor team getting hot or a better team getting cold, to have a success rate much better than that. Since the advent of playoffs, how many teams have repeated World Series Championships, even at a time when spending was pretty much unlimited for the large market teams?
I want the Cubs to be the 1990s Braves - in the fight right up to the end, making the season enjoyable from start to finish - and that is what the Ricketts family and the current front office has given us. Their success has far exceeded rational expectations, and I see no reason to believe that will change in the near future.
In the meantime, I will participate in the enjoyable discussions of what the front office should do, giving my opinions along with the others. But it should be known that not a single one of us has even 10 percent of the information available to the front office, and recommendations based upon comparative ignorance, while fun, are essentially meaningless.
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What is the “Cub for life” angle about?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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He's become one of my favorite Cubs.
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He's Morrow insurance.
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That's really cool, Ron. Strop has really been good, and what a delightful, easy to like guy he's been. Great young man and terrific contributor.
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Patrick Mooney has a fine, appreciative piece on Pedro Strop. Mooney documents just how good he's been for the Cubs, including producing some of the best numbers of any Cubs reliever in history, and some impressive stats when compared to other MLB relievers.
• Strop and Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen are the only pitchers to appear in at least 50 games and post a sub-3.00 ERA in each of the past five seasons.
• Strop is the only pitcher in franchise history with at least five seasons of 50-plus games and a sub-3.00 ERA. He also has the franchise record for holds (114) and ranks fourth in relief appearances (361).
• Among Cubs relievers all-time with at least 100 games pitched, Strop ranks second in ERA (2.63), third in batting average against (.181) and sixth in strikeouts per nine innings (10.21).
• Opponents have a .187 batting average against Strop at Wrigley Field, where only Carlos Marmol (.182), Arrieta (.182) and Sandy Koufax (.187) have posted better marks.
https://theathletic.com/583998/2018/10/17/how-pedro-strop-is-becoming-a-cub-for-life/
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Jesse Rogers
@ESPNChiCubs
I talked with Chili Davis today. He wished the Cubs well and admitted things didn't always "mesh" easily or enough between him and the players. He said there are no hard feelings after being fired as the team's hitting coach on Thursday.
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Patrick Mooney is catching a lot of flak for his latest article at The Athletic re: Chili Davis and the Cubs Way...
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Curt, Steve Stone used to always ask:
"when was the last time you saw an Olympic sprinter dive to the finish line?"
I think that no one should ever slide into first base, except in the rare instance of avoiding a tag when the throw is off line. However, the Olympic sprinter comment doesn't seem to be valid. A sprinter has to touch the tape with his chest. This prevents him from merely reaching forward with his had to touch it earlier, which I feel certain would work.
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I played baseball for a lot of years, and I never had the instinct to slide/dive into first base. Never.
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Do the Cubs really slide into first more than other teams? I've certainly never counted, but it never struck me that there was any huge difference.
I really think guys just do it in the heat of the moment. I doubt there's any instruction to do so taking place.
I agree. For the guy who's hustling, busting his ass to first, when he sees it's going to be close, tends to throw his whole body into the effort, logic not withstanding. I think we are programmed to reach for the prize with our hands, not our feet.
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Do the Cubs really slide into first more than other teams? I've certainly never counted, but it never struck me that there was any huge difference.
I really think guys just do it in the heat of the moment. I doubt there's any instruction to do so taking place.
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I'm not arguing any of those claims.
So then, the logical conclusion has to be that since all of the young Cubs who came up CubsWay are kinda dummies? And the Cubs management and CubsWay instructional personnel are dumbos too?
That's kinda depressing. Part of the Theo thing was supposed to be having a smart, best-of-everything development system.
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Craig, every piece of analytics I've seen is that running through the bag is faster than sliding into first. The only time it makes sense to slide is to avoid the tag.
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Diving to first is NOT faster than running through, but it IS faster than the last step being a giant leap.
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I think you have me confused with that darn Craig again.
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Curt, Steve Stone used to always ask:
"when was the last time you saw an Olympic sprinter dive to the finish line?"
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October 11, 2018 View as web page
Dear Cubs Fans,
"Everybody In." This simple declaration holds great meaning. While our roster is 25 players strong, it's the millions of committed teammates that make what we do special. You bring our beloved ballpark to life and make road games feel like home games. We cannot say it enough ... you are the best fans in sports.
While we fell short of our ultimate goal in 2018, our team earned 95 wins for the third time in the past four seasons. We are just the fifth NL club in the divisional era to make the postseason four years in a row. This level of sustained success doesn't happen often and it certainly doesn't happen without your support.
The memorable moments of 2018 - some of the best ever at Wrigley Field - underscore why our ballpark is so magical. Together, we enjoyed dramatic comeback wins, electric grand slams, shutdown pitching performances and spectacular defensive plays. And, who will ever forget El Mago stealing home? In addition to countless team accomplishments, we also witnessed tremendous individual efforts. Veterans Jon Lester and Ben Zobrist were among the best at their craft, Anthony Rizzo continues to provide the heartbeat for our team, and Javy Báez, who delivered an MVP-caliber season, is perhaps the most exciting player in baseball.
Unfortunately, a thrilling summer at Wrigley Field gave way to a disappointing October. Falling one game short in the NL Central and making an early postseason exit, while both unfamiliar and uncomfortable, will motivate us. We will spend the winter working hard to give Joe Maddon and our team the support they need to reclaim our division.
In addition, we continue to restore and modernize the Friendly Confines. Inside the ballpark, we introduced new premier experiences and a variety of concessions for fans to enjoy. We will continue to deliver new fan amenities this coming season, especially in the upper level. Outside the ballpark, Hotel Zachary opened to great success and added several new retail and restaurant options. We also doubled the number of community events offered at Gallagher Way, helping make Wrigley Field and the surrounding area a year-round destination for families and fans. This award-winning community asset has transformed Wrigleyville and improved the overall gameday experience.
From our own backyard to neighborhoods all across Chicago, we're delivering on our goal of being a good neighbor. We are proud to be one of the most philanthropic franchises in sports. Our team and Cubs Charities continue to raise record funds, deliver meaningful programming and increase access to diamond sports. Through Cubs Jr. All-Stars, Diamond Project, Cubs Scholars and Cubs Care grants, we positively impacted more than 135,000 youth this year alone.
Despite our abrupt ending on the field, our team is in no way defined by one Wild Card loss. The overwhelming sentiment, from our front office to the clubhouse, is that we have a lot of work to do and will be back stronger than ever. The talented core that fueled this unprecedented run of success is still in place. Our players are young and hungry. Our fans are committed like no other fan base. We are ready to write the next chapter of our amazing story.
Go Cubs,
Tom Ricketts
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It seems to me that running through first base has to be safer than any kind of slide. Also, I'm not aware of any data that sliding is advantageous in touching first base quicker than running through the base. I would be on board with telling my players never to slide into first base.
This is a sincere question. *IF* sliding (both feet-first and hands-first) is both less fast and less safe, why do so many Cubs slide? Why would they opt for poor practice unless they had a different perception of it's merits?
Some hypothetical answers:
1. Maybe they incorrectly *think* it's faster? But no coaches or Cubs-Way training ever communicated otherwise?
2. Cubs-Way believes it's as fast or faster, or as safe or safer? I remember Steve Stone always saying sliding was slower, and that's what I've always heard for decades; but maybe Cubs analytics believes otherwise?
3. Or maybe they incorrectly think it's safer? But no coaches or Cubs-Way training every communicated otherwise?
4. Or maybe Cubs-Way believes it's safer?
5. Or maybe they only slide conditionally: when they perceive the possibility of a collision? But perhaps the perception is that on any close play, a bad throw might put the throw and the 1B directly in the running line at the last second, so sliding obviates risk of a high-speed collision?
Q: It seems to pretty much correlate to Cubs-Way Cubs, right? Baez, Bryant, Almora, and Contreras, guys who came up almost exclusively under CubsWay, are the slide-into-first guys, no? So maybe that's a reflection of what's taught in the system; or perhaps that CubsWay didn't say anything about it and doesn't address it at all?
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I think they do it on instinct, so I'm not sure you can "ban" it in any real sense.
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It seems to me that running through first base has to be safer than any kind of slide. Also, I'm not aware of any data that sliding is advantageous in touching first base quicker than running through the base. I would be on board with telling my players never to slide into first base.
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I continue to be astonished that Joe Maddon allows it.
Heh heh, yeah! :)
Still, I don't know, at two levels...
First, if he started telling guys they "aren't allowed" to slide into 1st, that might be one of the first and only "not allowed" things for Maddon's players? Is there anything that he doesn't "allow"? His philosophy is pretty much to let guys play freely, and not tell them what they can or can't do. (I guess "respect 90" is maybe one thing....)
Second, I'm not sure that head-first sliding is either bad, or more risky than feet-first? Players slide a ton; is there anything wrong with head-first sliding versus feet-first sliding? And, even if head-first is somewhat more dangerous, can you imagine telling El-Mago to quit because it's too risky?
But I really question whether head-first actually is any more hazardous than feet-first, Bryant's injury while sliding hand-first not-withstanding? Hand-first would seem to be more vulnerable to jamming fingers, or perhaps hurting a wrist. But I almost feel like hard, late feet-first slides are almost as, or more risky, for ankle-injury as hand-first slides are for shoulder or wrist injury.
And to some degree I also wonder whether running through 1st base on a close play where you're really stretching to get beat the throw might not almost be equally as more risky?
*Getting hit in the head with a throw or a tag?
*Body-on-body collision, at risk to knees/ankles head/neck/ribs, if the throw is off-line and the 1B needs to step into the running path to catch the ball or make a tag?
*Pulled hamstring or pulled groin while trying to stretch to extend and reach the bag?
*Ankle injury when landing awkwardly on the bag?
*Tripping on either the bag or the 1B's foot, and falling awkwardly?
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"It’s easy to forget just how good Bryant was to start the season. Through the season’s first 38 games, Bryant had a .311/.422/.595 slash line. He was walking at a 12.2 percent rate, striking out just 15.6 percent of the time and on pace for 60 doubles, 35 home runs, 120 runs scored and 99 RBIs. Then on May 19, in the 11th inning in the front end of a doubleheader against the Cincinnati Reds, Bryant did this to try and beat out an infield single.
That reminds me of a post I made in the Today’s Game topic on May 25
If it weren't for Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant would be a shoo-in for NL All-Star third baseman.
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The video to which Sharma refers shows Bryant beating out an grounder by sliding head first into 1B. I continue to be astonished that major league baseball players ever do this. Guessing it may be the last time Bryant does that. Sure hope so, anyway.
I continue to be astonished that Joe Maddon allows it.
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Sahadev Sharma has an article on Kris Bryant. While the focus is on his future with the Cubs, it includes this section, which serves as a reminder of just how good this guy can be, and how stupid it is to do a head first slide to beat out an infield hit.
"It’s easy to forget just how good Bryant was to start the season. Through the season’s first 38 games, Bryant had a .311/.422/.595 slash line. He was walking at a 12.2 percent rate, striking out just 15.6 percent of the time and on pace for 60 doubles, 35 home runs, 120 runs scored and 99 RBIs. Then on May 19, in the 11th inning in the front end of a doubleheader against the Cincinnati Reds, Bryant did this to try and beat out an infield single.
"He was safe, recording his third hit of the day. But that’s the moment the Cubs believe Bryant banged up his left shoulder. From that point on, Bryant’s power was sapped and his season numbers were sunk. Bryant had two stints on the disabled list and played just 64 games the remainder of the season. He slashed .249/.339/.378 the rest of the way, delivering just 20 more extra-base hits (he had 24 when that slide into first occurred) while striking out 28.5 percent of the time.
"Bryant wound up posting a career-worst batting average, slugging percentage, ISO, walk rate, hard contact rate, soft contact rate and wRC+. He had his second-highest strikeout percentage and second-lowest OBP. (It would’ve been his worst OBP if not for the 17 times he got hit by a pitch.)"
https://theathletic.com/582294/2018/10/11/the-only-thing-kris-bryant-wanted-to-extend-was-the-cubs-season/?source=dailyemail
The video to which Sharma refers shows Bryant beating out an grounder by sliding head first into 1B. I continue to be astonished that major league baseball players ever do this. Guessing it may be the last time Bryant does that. Sure hope so, anyway.
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Over these multiple seasons Bryant has struggled how many PA are we talking about in high leverage situations?
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So when the stat fits my narrative it is useful, got it.
You don't have it. There is no narrative. Facts are facts. Nobody is disputing that Schwarber was terrible in some clutch situations this year including 1-14 with the bases loaded. Nobody is or was claiming Schwarber was an elite offensive player or MVP either.
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Amazing that Russell and Contreras were also on that list.
I wish they had included the same list for the 2017 season. Where would Schwarber, Russell and Contreras be on that list.
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Bryant's issues--not the exact ones being mentioned about Schwarber--were more than a one year phenomenon, and Bryant was an MVP. When Schwarber is deemed a savior then we can maybe make a comparison.
So when the stat fits my narrative it is useful, got it.
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Terry Francona is apparently in trouble in Cleveland. Let Joe have the Angels job and snatch him up.
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Kris Bryant says hi
Bryant's issues--not the exact ones being mentioned about Schwarber--were more than a one year phenomenon, and Bryant was an MVP. When Schwarber is deemed a savior then we can maybe make a comparison.
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Schwarber has improved enough on defense to fool the defensive metrics into thinking he was above average for a season. He's probably a net-neutral in left, and he walks enough and hits enough HRs that he can probably get you an .800 OPS if you platoon him. There's value in that, especially as he's cheap with several seasons of team control. Who knows, maybe some GM out there thinks he can catch twice a week. I don't think he's going to fetch anything huge when he's dealt, but it should certainly be more than negligible.
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Preventing people from taking extra bases is also defensive value. A guy on 1st is a lot less likely to score than a guy on second. Schwarber’s range factor was been positive for 2 years. He isn’t a butcher that everybody makes him out to be.
FWIW JD Martinez was coming off a wRC+ of 75 and about to get released at Schwarber age.
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As long as Schwarber doesn’t devolved a degenerative hip condition would that really be a bad thing? Schwarber is also a lot better on defense than Cameron gave him credit for.
At this point, it's probably the best case scenario. Outside of 2011, Napoli was a slightly above average player overall who only provided value with his bat, and that's probably what Schwarber is. That's far less than the JD Martinez-like hitter the Cubs seem to think he'll turn into.
I'm still really skeptical of Schwarber's defense. As soon as the league figures out they can't run on his arm, I don't think he provides any defensive value.
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Dave Cameron pegged him as a LH Mike Napoli on Fangraphs a few years ago. That’s looking pretty accurate. If you take out Napoli’s huge (and uncharacteristic) 2001 season where he hit .320/.414/.631, I bet their career slash lines would be almost identical.
As long as Schwarber doesn’t devolved a degenerative hip condition would that really be a bad thing? Schwarber is also a lot better on defense than Cameron gave him credit for.
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Fangraphs' list of all-time difference in high to med/low leverage w/RC+ includes seasons by Craig Biggio, Hideki Matsui, Jim Thome, David Wright, and Ryan Zimmerman.
IOW, not sure why anyone should be hung up on this one stat for one season.
Kris Bryant says hi
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It just seems like change is coming - someone from the core (besides Russell) is going to be outbound. And Schwarber seems like the most logical candidate in many ways.
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Agree re Schwarber's upside...just finished his age 25 season with less than 1,100 ABs. Some progress this season. Very hard worker. Real good team guy.
I'd guess Theo's not ready to sell on Schwarber yet unless something really good comes his way this off-season (which isn't likely).
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Hall of Famer Jim Thome?
Upside man, upside.
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Man, I wish they’d traded Schwarber for Miller instead of the Chapman trade. Assuming that was really an option, of course.
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Dave Cameron pegged him as a LH Mike Napoli on Fangraphs a few years ago. That’s looking pretty accurate. If you take out Napoli’s huge (and uncharacteristic) 2001 season where he hit .320/.414/.631, I bet their career slash lines would be almost identical.
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Hall of Famer Jim Thome?
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Thome isn’t a bad long-term comp for Schwarber, maybe.
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Fangraphs' list of all-time difference in high to med/low leverage w/RC+ includes seasons by Craig Biggio, Hideki Matsui, Jim Thome, David Wright, and Ryan Zimmerman.
IOW, not sure why anyone should be hung up on this one stat for one season.
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Amazing that Russell and Contreras were also on that list.
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That's pretty amazing. Seems about how we'd remember it.
I wonder if Schwarber isn't inherently a likely to always underperform in clutch? He's an extreme splits guy. A HR hitter with just 1 HR versus LHP; and a slow lefty who likes to hit grounders into the shift. >200 points worse versus lefties.
In high-leverage situation, why would an opposing manager let him face a RHP? In the 2nd inning, they're not going to pull their RHP against Schwarber. But in late high-leverage, won't his numbers stink because opponents make him face lefties all the time, against whom he always kinda stinks?
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Schwarber’s trade value is a fascinating puzzle and a key factor this offseason. I’m honestly not sure how to assess it, and I don’t know if a lot of GMs are either.
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Wow! https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/10/08/kyle-schwarber-had-a-good-overall-season-but-by-one-measure-he-was-historically-un-clutch/
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Exactly. Urgency isn't going to solve the offense. Other solutions needed for that.
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Not in the box, no...
On defense, sure...on the bases, sure, even immediately after contact (not running out a lazy pop fly or a weak grounder), yes, all the time...
But not in the box...when you're in the box, it's game on...always...
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I admit I'm a little uncertain about this. I think attributing too much to psychological/clubhouse-chemistry/urgency stuff may be a factor, but might also really miss the point. (When pitchers forget to cover first, that I can explain with losing focus, sure...)
But for hitting, is that really a thing?
For guys like Happ and Schwarber, will urgency impact their capacity to hit fastballs above the waist?
Can any pro athlete lack the competitiveness to collect his wits and fully focus during 4-5 brief at-bats? And even within a 3-min AB, most of that is relax time taking practice swings and waiting for pitcher.
Seems to me that any pro athlete can put ALL life issues aside during those few seconds in the box, and be totally focused on winning that AB? (Daughter might be in hospital, father might have cancer, wife might be angry, etc.; I suspect real pro competitors can put all of that aside when they're in the box.) .
Maybe it factors for prep? Urgency to study film, or to work on something productive in BP?
Different on defense, I can see mind drifting.
But for a hitter actually in the box? I just can't see that being much of an issue.
So I'm kind of hesitant to think a "broken" offense can get fixed with "urgency".
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I thought Theo talked a lot but didn't really say anything. There was something for everyone regardless of what your position is on any of the subjects.
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Sounds like an indictment of the coaching staff to me.
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I don't think anyone who doesn't win the world series is "happy" with the status quo. But that doesn't necessarily mean that they are going to gut the team or make major personnel changes.
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Beyond the platitudes (which Theo is as good at as anybody), there were some code words in his presser that tipped off his true mindset. "Broken", not enough urgency, "didn't show up for the first half of the season". He's not happy with the status quo in the clubhouse and it should be obvious to anyone not intentionally blinding themselves to it.
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About 27 minutes into Epstein's meeting with the Chicago media, I asked him about how big a factor the schedule and fatigue were in the team finishing the season with a thud, losing in Game 163 of the regular season to the Milwaukee Brewers and in the wild-card game to the Colorado Rockies.
The question was prefaced that the schedule was what it was -- 42 scheduled game days in 43 days down the stretch -- and that nobody likes to hear excuses.
I wasn't sure what Epstein would say, but his answer was more than 1,000 words long, and he cut off another question by telling a reporter he wasn't finished yet.
https://www.dailyherald.com/sports/20181004/epstein-cubs-schedule-was-a-lot-but-every-team-has-things-to-deal-with
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In the meantime, I will participate in the enjoyable discussions of what the front office should do, giving my opinions along with the others. But it should be known that not a single one of us has even 10 percent of the information available to the front office, and recommendations based upon comparative ignorance, while fun, are essentially meaningless.
Amen.
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If the Yankees drafted Lange and Little they'd be throwing 100.
This isn't a full list, but from the Fangraphs prospects page the Yanks have 16 guys with 55 or higher fastballs. The Cubs have 6.
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...The Cubs really need to try and recreate what the Yankees are doing with their pitching development. The Yanks have the ability to draft pitchers that don't throw hard and then add velocity. They might be looking for mechanical adjustments, pitcher traits or weighted ball programs or all of the above or more.
Lange said he was told it's normal to lose velocity, as you transition from once-a-week. Little and Lange both did lose, and now both profile as guys who need to be soft-toss spin specialists to make it.
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I like Theo and his approach, and listening to his interview.
Still, I admit I kind of wonder.
1. He made a point of several times distinguishing between performance and talent. Is this a case of Boss misjudging and over-valuing his talent?
2. He said the offense was broken, now; yet he emphasized how great they were first-half. Might this be a Boss misjudging his talent, and thinking that the first-half offense is the real normal? Maybe the first half is the norm, but I wonder?
*When gushing about the first half, he did *not* acknowledge that being a bottom-3rd HR team was already manifest then.
*The first half was also supported by Almora hitting like a batting champion and Heyward hitting really well too.
*If Theo is counting on that being future normal, is that a wise and realistic premise?
3. He talked about urgency and intensity. Might this be a Boss misjudging his talent, and thinking that the talent is great and sufficient but it just needs to want to try harder?
*Maybe it was a bunch of underachievers playing below their talent.
*But I wonder whether whatever limits Heyward/Almora/Schwarber/Happ/Russell/Caratini have as hitters isn't perhaps more lack of skill than lack of will?
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I lean towards velocity because it gives you a larger margin of error, but what I really want is staff that strikes people and doesn't walk people. The Cubs staff wasn't any of that.
The Cubs really need to try and recreate what the Yankees are doing with their pitching development. The Yanks have the ability to draft pitchers that don't throw hard and then add velocity. They might be looking for mechanical adjustments, pitcher traits or weighted ball programs or all of the above or more.
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Yankees and Astros averaged 95.3 and 95.2 in fastball velocity as a staff. They had 8% (10th in MLB) and 7.4% (4th in MLB) BB%. The had 26.6% (2nd) and 28.5% (1st) K% in MLB. Velocity doesn't mean poor control.
The Cubs 21.3% (20th) K%, 9.9% BB% (28th) with 92.8 mph (25th).
Thanks, Blue, very helpful data perspective. I think your point that "velocity doesn't mean poor control" is very well taken. I think if anything, velocity trends towards having better control.
For most pitchers the fastball is the easiest pitch to throw for a strike (Maples/Edwards notwithstanding). Guys with enough velocity to attack with the fastball have an easier time throwing strikes and having control. And not only is a fastball easier to throw for a strike than a curve, but an excellent fastball doesn't need to be as fine and nibble the corner as precisely either.
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Well said, DaveP.
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Very few GMs or Owners openly say they are unhappy with a particular manager, coach or player before they fire him. Doing so would generally be countproductive. However, it is probably too large of a jump to think that not saying they are going to fire someone is proof that they are indeed going to do so.
Last year, many pointed out that the offense had declined, or at the very least, not improved over 2016. Last year, they fired the hitting coach. This year, it got even worse.
One year is much too small a sample size to evaluate any manager, hitting coach or pitching coach. There are just too many random variables.
If Bryant had had a healthy shoulder all year, how much better would he have been? If Russell had not hurt his hand in July, how much better would he have been? Did the production of Contreras go down because he was injured, because he was overworked, or because the hitting coach screwed him up? Could any coach level out the peaks and valleys of Baez's magnificent - horrible hitting streaks? Could any hitting coach restore Heyward to his pre-signing level. For that matter, could any hitting coach totally revamp the philosophy and lifelong techniques of an entire team in a single year?
I have always been under the belief that the Manager is of less importance to the performance of a team that at least 20 of the 25 man roster. Which is probably why many on the team with more than 5 years of experience is probably making more money than the manager. Epstein can try to pacify part of the fan base by firing a coach or manager, but regardless, he has to make decisions about his playing personnel.
But hindsight doesn't help much.
It is not true that the front office has fallen in love with the players they brought into the system, and have refused to trade them. They traded away their best young prospect for Chapman. They traded away their best hitting prospect, as well as their best young pitching prospect for Quintana. Candelario went for Wilson. A couple of younger ones went for Chavez and de la Rosa.
Two years ago, several recommended trading Schwarber. At that time, his trade value was quite high, and a trade would probably have worked out well for the Cubs. Two years ago, several recommended trading Baez. At that time his trade value was fairly high, and a trade would probably have worked out very badly for the Cubs.
Regardless of what we did or did not do two years ago, we live in the present. Schwarber will not bring back the quality of player that he would have brought two years ago. Nor would Almora or Russell. Or Happ. None of them would likely bring back players that will substantially improve either the offense or the defense. Would the value of the players received exceed the value of the potential of these players to achieve production that at matches their talent.
These are the decisions that Epstein and Hoyer have to make. As a fan, the only thing I have to judge their ability to make good decisions is to look at the success of the team over their tenure. I realize that many don't agree with me, but for the last four years, they have been the team I have longed for over the decades. They have been in the playoffs every year, winning the division three years and winning the World Series once. I see no reason why this performance can not continue over the next four years. And this is extremely good production. Even the best team in baseball has odds of 3 to 1 against them as they enter the playoffs. The teams are too closely matched, and each series is too short to prevent a lessor team getting hot or a better team getting cold, to have a success rate much better than that. Since the advent of playoffs, how many teams have repeated World Series Championships, even at a time when spending was pretty much unlimited for the large market teams?
I want the Cubs to be the 1990s Braves - in the fight right up to the end, making the season enjoyable from start to finish - and that is what the Ricketts family and the current front office has given us. Their success has far exceeded rational expectations, and I see no reason to believe that will change in the near future.
In the meantime, I will participate in the enjoyable discussions of what the front office should do, giving my opinions along with the others. But it should be known that not a single one of us has even 10 percent of the information available to the front office, and recommendations based upon comparative ignorance, while fun, are essentially meaningless.
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Yankees and Astros averaged 95.3 and 95.2 in fastball velocity as a staff. They had 8% (10th in MLB) and 7.4% (4th in MLB) BB%. The had 26.6% (2nd) and 28.5% (1st) K% in MLB. Velocity doesn't mean poor control.
The Cubs 21.3% (20th) K%, 9.9% BB% (28th) with 92.8 mph (25th).
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Velocity is nice but only the Atlanta Braves and the Chicago White Sox issued more walks than the Cubs in 2018.
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Did he see "not happy with the job we've done drafting pitching?" Because it's been pretty awful.
Start drafting some high-90's fireballers with mechanical flaws or injury concerns and try to fix them and stop with all these high-character rag-armers, for the love of God...
It's not as if they have ignored this.
Cease, Norwood, Maples, De la Cruz, Clark, Albertos, Marquez, Underwood, Steele, Frasier have all been drafted or international signees.
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Did he see "not happy with the job we've done drafting pitching?" Because it's been pretty awful.
Start drafting some high-90's fireballers with mechanical flaws or injury concerns and try to fix them and stop with all these high-character rag-armers, for the love of God...
Also figure out how the Yanks add velocity to everybody.
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My recollection is that both Theo and Joe said they were happy with the staff last year just before they cleaned house.
Yeah and they were happy with Dale Sveum too up until the second to the last day of the regular season before they fired him.
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My recollection is that both Theo and Joe said they were happy with the staff last year just before they cleaned house.
Of course they did. Why would they do anything else? They’re not going to hang coaches (or managers) out to dry while they’re still in their positions.
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My recollection is that both Theo and Joe said they were happy with the staff last year just before they cleaned house.
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Yeah, they always do the exit interviews with all the players after the season. All teams in all pro sports do that, I think.
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Players and coaches sit down with the front office about goals for next year.
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I wasn't listening closely, but I heard Theo mention "exit interview" a couple times. Was that for someone in particular or just something they do with everyone at the end of the year?
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Interesting interpretation. I did not share it.
Like you said, an interpretation. Theo isn't going to come out and say he is firing Chili before talking to him. He did say the following: the offense was broken, he didn't like the regression of his younger hitters who should be trending upward year over year but are not or worse, are regressing. Most notably, he said he wasn't happy that the new approach had diminished balls in the air and power. When asked about Chili specifically he said he worked really hard. Maybe he keeps him, but I seriously doubt it.
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I know some will not agree, but this press conference reminds me of and reinforces my appreciation of and admiration for Theo.
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There's a reason teams love firing hitting (and pitching) coaches. It has the allure of the quick fix - maybe you can turn it around without spending a lot of money or parting with players you may be emotionally committed to. In the end I don't think they make a huge difference either way most of the time, but they're always going to be a target.
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Theo is indirectly saying Chili Davis is gone. Not happy with the diminished power, walks, balls in the air. No coaching decisions have been made at this point but he isn't saying they'll all be back either. Sounds to me like Chili might want to call a moving company and start pricing.
Interesting interpretation. I did not share it.
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Did he see "not happy with the job we've done drafting pitching?" Because it's been pretty awful.
Start drafting some high-90's fireballers with mechanical flaws or injury concerns and try to fix them and stop with all these high-character rag-armers, for the love of God...
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Spending more money on players isn't always the answer.
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He is happy with the bullpen overall. Happy with the strike throwing overall but they'll be looking for more help there. Called Cole Hamels a breathe of fresh air, pro's pro. Well respected in the clubhouse and on the field. Positive presence. Absolutely someone they want as part of the mix going forward.
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Theo is indirectly saying Chili Davis is gone. Not happy with the diminished power, walks, balls in the air. No coaching decisions have been made at this point but he isn't saying they'll all be back either. Sounds to me like Chili might want to call a moving company and start pricing.
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Theo went on a bit about it being time to evaluate based on production over talent now. And how are guys who were doing things at 22-23 years old, not taking the next step at 24, 25, 26...
Nice knowing you Schwarbs
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Re: Today's Game 2018
« Reply #9141 on: October 02, 2018, 11:01:23 pm »
This is excruciating. But I can't look away...
From the Today's Game topic, but I pretty much reached my breaking point around the 8th inning last night. I turned the TV off and started listening to Pat and Ron starting around then and found it a lot less stressful to do that the rest of the way. And not to quibble too much with Joe's managing last night, but when he starts going into the bullpen in a playoff game and starts swapping out relievers because someone like Drew Butera is coming to the plate, it just gets nerve wracking for me. I probably spent the last 5 innings last night just waiting for the inevitable moment we found the reliever who sucked while our offense couldn't do much of anything with the limited chances they had.
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Fifth question is about Joe's status
Theo - no friction - we don't always agree - doesn't want yes man - look forward to him coming back next year.
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First two questions are about Addison Russell.
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It would be nice if we could hear the questions being asked
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Ok, that works, thanks
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https://tunein.com/radio/ESPN-Chicago-1000-s21297/
Sounds like 4:00 central time.
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So it's just about to start?
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https://tunein.com/radio/ESPN-Chicago-1000-s21297/
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You can listen on the ESPN app or stream it online.
http://www.espn.com/chicago/radio/
You can stream the Score through the radio.com app.
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Silvy @WaddleandSilvy 18m18 minutes ago
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@WaddleandSilvy how can we listen to show live on our iPhone?
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Does anyone know how to watch Theo's end of the season press conference this afternoon live? Or even what time it is?
Silvy @WaddleandSilvy 1h1 hour ago
We carry the #Cubs/Theo presser at 4pm. Plus-@ESPNChiCubs 3pm. @RealMikeWilbon 5pm. @MarkGiangreco7 5:30. And @TWaddle87’s world 3:30.
Somebody in Chicago might be able to provide a link.
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Does anyone know how to watch Theo's end of the season press conference this afternoon live? Or even what time it is?
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Robb, I agree with you that the "long stretch of games took its toll" and I agree with P2 that 95 wins is a pretty great season.
At the end of the day, despite our offensive struggles this season in many games, we've still hit the playoffs 4 years in a row and are in a solid position for next season.
However, what's also true is that the Brewers should also be strong next season, the Cards and Bucs have tons of great young pitching and the Reds should be much better. It will be even harder to win 95 from the NLC in 2019!
C'mon Theo!
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I agree Play, there were many things that went right this year for the Cubs. Rizzo's second half, Hamels, Chavez and most of all Baez. The bullpen was better this year until they wore out from early overuse. I am very hopeful that a full offseason of rest plus some re-tooling will have this team ready to dominate next year.
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I wouldn't say that the Cubs are fine. They are a very good team, but they will need to improve significantly to keep pace with the other top teams in the NL and to catch up to the juggernauts in the AL. It will take Theo magic to make that happen.
That said, I feel sorry for those who only seemed to see the flaws and shortcomings of the 2018 Cubs. While there was a lot about which to be disappointed, there were also many things to appreciate and enjoy (at least for me). And I can't wait to see what the 2019 season has in store.
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It would have been brilliant for the Cubs to sign Mikolas by just adding half of Chatwood's money to get him and then signing Cain to leadoff and patrol CF. Not only would we have a tablesetter, Milwaukee wouldn't have gotten him. But hindsight is 20/20.
However, hindsight also tells us that the fault in the leadership office is the same as the one on this board: we love our players. We commit to our players, we fear they will break out for someone else, and we wish to repay their loyalty. As a result, how do you trade a Schwarber who trains like he did last winter in order to get better? It's tough. Or Happ who has upside? Or Almora who you've invested a lot of time in? I think there was affection for Russell, too. There was a time that we all thought he would be a great hitter, and he provided moments like the Bote play this past month. All is spilt milk.
I disagree with some on here that Theocracy was oblivious to the problem. The pickup of Murphy was a sign they knew they needed more contact hitting. The pickup of Hamels showed they understood the pitching pickle. I still have confidence they will get us back to dynasty status; I just think it will be a painful divorcing of some affections for them.
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https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2798834-cubs-once-rising-dynasty-at-risk-after-massive-2018-letdown?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=editorial
I was told this summer that every sportswriter was eager to run a post mortum on the Cubs and already had poison pen articles on Maddon ready to roll. In spite of their platitudes in the good times, some consider Maddon as full of himself and condescending, so expect a few anti-Maddon rips. Frankly, I would probably be condescending also to some of the dumb questions these reporters ask.
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I think the long stretch of games took more of a toll on this team than any single factor. The injuries to Bryant, Darvish and Morrow did the same. Three long postseason runs could also have been a factor. Don't forget the human factor. The Addison Russell news and suspension certainly didn't help. But that's all of the excuses I can come up with. Every team has injuries. Every team has some personal stuff they deal with. Every team has some tough road trips and long stretches, (although nothing quite like what the Cubs went through.) They could have won the division outright and been well rested and well positioned for the playoffs had the following players not regressed or failed to improve:
Jason Heyward - Jason had an ops+ of 105, 95 and 142 the first three months of the season but still with only 5 homers and a poor slugging percentage. His second half regression was certainly aided by his injury, but it was startling. His last three months ops+ was 80, 90 and 73, which qualifies him as one of the worst players taking regular at bats in baseball. The last 2 weeks it's been even worse at 58. Some pitchers do better. Average OPS+ this year league wide was 97 which included pitchers hitting. So Heyward was a well below average hitter 3 months and at least below average 4 out of 6. It is no coincidence that his two best months were the same months the Cubs offense was clicking. Jason hit only 8 homers this year and stole one base. He made several defensive miscues including a crucial one in the Cardinals series that led to runs. Considering there are 5 years left on his contract I hope and expect the Cubs to take a hit this offseason and attempt to move him, no matter the cost, and they should.
Addison Russell - When Billy Beane traded Addison Russell to the Cubs for their best two starters he told Theo he had just acquired Barry Larkin. Although some of his stats in 2016 were encouraging, he has never been even an average major league hitter. His OPS in 2016 was 733 which was still below average for his position. This year he managed an anemic .657. His slugging this year was .340, average for his position was .416. While playing in 19 less games than 2016 he committed more errors. His regression and now fall from grace is a major disappointment for the Cubs. I don't know what team will want him at this point but after for seasons now Addison Russell pretty much is what he is, a decent fielding poor slugging, low average hitter who has shown no signs of improvement for two seasons, in fact has regressed. Considering his off the field struggles I assume he will be moved. I just don't know who will take him.
Tyler Chatwood - What can be said other than that he is a complete bust? In the beginning of the season the Cubs were able to outscore his wildness. He even won 4 games for them. His WHIP has never been good. 1.66 in 142 innings his rookie year. 1.44 last year and a whopping 1.804 this year. It cannot be understated the impact of Chatwood's failure on the team. The reliever's were used heavily nearly every day he started. He was tagged with only six losses but his explosion hurt the bullpen and hurt the team. Hindsight is always 20/20 but Miles Mikolas signed for far less and he looks like an ace.
Front Office - I love our front office as much as anybody but this was by far their worst season yet. Every signing but Cishek failed, some spectacularly.The Chatwood signing, the Darvish signing and the Heyward 8 year albatross. I guess the Heyward rah rah speech in game 7 was worth it. But if Heyward had actually hit the baseball they wouldn't have been in that situation to need his speech. Firing Bosio and Mallee clearly didn't work out. Hicks hasn't impressed me as a guy who can help pitchers improve. The offense tried Chili's new approach and it clearly didn't work and he should be gone. The Hamels move was excellent, the Murphy move dropped into their laps but they pulled the trigger so full credit to them. Chavez was easily their best move of the year. So they didn't miss on everything. But Theo's track record all the way back to Carl Crawford isn't a good one. He loves the big splash, which makes the offseason fun, but is not sustainable. Much as the front office expects the players to work in the offseason to better themselves by evaluating what is working and what isn't, I hope Theo and crew do the same and start doing a better job of outside talent evaluation. That being said, sign Harper and Kimbrel. :)
In conclusion, I don't think the window is closing by any means. The future is still bright. But changes need to be made.
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Hot take - Its not the hitters or the pitchers, its the coaching and a couple of bad FA signings.
Madden left the Rays with the reputation of an innovative manager who did a great job managing a young roster and keeping players fresh. Lots of folks in Tampa felt his in game management especially as related to the pitching staff was fairly mediocre at best.
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Nice.
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It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart.
The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again,
and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings,
and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone.
You count on it, rely on it to buffer the passage of time,
to keep the memory of sunshine and high skies alive,
and then just when the days are all twilight, when you need it most,
it stops."
- A. Bartlett Giammati
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Don't get me wrong, I expect to be disappointed. I'm just saying what I think they should do. I have no confidence that they'd be willing to admit that maybe Schwarber and Almora aren't the future stars they think they are.
I don't think that either the Cubs management or most Cubs fans ever thought that Almora would turn out to be an offensive star. So far, he has been pretty much what had been expected, or even hoped for.
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There my be some merit in change for its own sake at this point. Whatever that means in the end.
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28% (11) have come in the last last month.
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Christopher Kamka @ckamka
Most games this season with 1 or 0 runs scored:
40 Orioles
39 Cubs
37 Marlins
36 Giants
35 Mets
More than the expansion-like Marlins and nearly as many as the historically bad Orioles.
Look at the rosters of all those teams and tell me that makes any sense.
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Christopher Kamka @ckamka
Most games this season with 1 or 0 runs scored:
40 Orioles
39 Cubs
37 Marlins
36 Giants
35 Mets
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You are going to be really disappointed this offseason if that is what you are expecting.
Don't get me wrong, I expect to be disappointed. I'm just saying what I think they should do. I have no confidence that they'd be willing to admit that maybe Schwarber and Almora aren't the future stars they think they are.
Ultimately, they'll add someone like Brian Dozier to replace Russell and then sign a couple Cishek-level relievers. They'll go into a third season with this mix of hitters and expect different results again.
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On the other hand, It is probably a good thing if every GM has an open mind about their roster.
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I think the front office needs to go into the offseason with the idea that they have maybe 10-12 players who will definitely play for the 2019 Cubs, and 4-5 of those are just because of contracts. In the end, they'll bring back more than just those 10-12 players...but outside of star hitters (Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, maybe Contreras), big contract starters (Lester, Darvish), and 3 semi-expensive but good relievers (Strop, Morrow, Cishek), they should have really open minds on the makeup of the 2019 roster.
This team needs significant retooling. They have to add two hitters (either Harper or Machado, and a good OBP guy for the top of the lineup). A revamped bullpen and a backup catcher who Joe will actually play sometimes in the first half are necessary too.
You are going to be really disappointed this offseason if that is what you are expecting.
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Didn't they have us at 93% to win the Division?
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Fivethirtyeight has the Cubs at 54% to make the NLDS; Fangraphs has them at 53%. So they're a very slight favorite based on data.
Subjectively, they're not nearly that strong.
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Ben, I love your tireless optimism but win or lose tomorrow I’m pretty sure we’re toast.
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Who the heck knows and I could well imagine Cubs having lots of trouble with Rox terrific young LH starter tomorrow night, but I think the Cubs can do some real damage IF they can find a way to eke out a win in the WC game.
Certainly, the Cubs are tough and resilient and unlikely to beat themselves. This year's Cubs are battle tested - both in an incredible stretch without a break this year AND previous years...the kind of team that often finds a way to get through multiple series' and, dare I say it, go deep into October.
Of course, our season might well end tomorrow night, but if it doesn't, I like our chances against the Brewers and, if we get on a roll, anyone else...even with all the injuries and adversity...sometimes, that adversity can make a TEAM even stronger this time of year.
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I think this off season is going to be really interesting.
I think the front office needs to go into the offseason with the idea that they have maybe 10-12 players who will definitely play for the 2019 Cubs, and 4-5 of those are just because of contracts. In the end, they'll bring back more than just those 10-12 players...but outside of star hitters (Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, maybe Contreras), big contract starters (Lester, Darvish), and 3 semi-expensive but good relievers (Strop, Morrow, Cishek), they should have really open minds on the makeup of the 2019 roster.
This team needs significant retooling. They have to add two hitters (either Harper or Machado, and a good OBP guy for the top of the lineup). A revamped bullpen and a backup catcher who Joe will actually play sometimes in the first half are necessary too.
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Will be interesting to see what the 3 days off does to Milwaukee and their hot streak. Maybe nothing, maybe cools them off a bit.
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Sure feels like it.
Even if they win the WC game, does anyone have any confidence in them beating Milwaukee? They just lost 5 of 7 to them down the stretch in crucial games.
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Doesn't mean the off season still won't be interesting......
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2018 isn't over yet!
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I think this off season is going to be really interesting.
The Cubs need to unload Kintzler and Chatwood.
Do they bring back Hamels by picking up his option or hope to sign him for less than $20 million or let him walk?
Is Montgomery a starter what do you do with Smyly?
With the bullpen do you bring back Wilson? Sign a closer to cover for a possible Marrow injury?
Do you get in on Harper/Machado, if so which one?
What the heck do you do with Russell?
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I'm sure glad Joe saved Edwards for tomorrow.
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Final tally: The Cubs scored 0, 1, or 2 runs 55 times in 163 games this year. For comparison, they failed to score 3 in 47 games last year and 36 games in 2016.
They scored less than 2 runs 39 times this year, compared to 28 games in 2017 and 19 in 2016.
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Did they have any good stretches this year though? They started off slow and it was thought they would pick it up when the weather warmed up. But they didn't really. No leadoff hitter, Bryant down year/injury, unfavorable schedule, crummy hitting coach, wind blowing in most days at Wrigley throughout the summer...what else?
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With the possible exception of Jesse Chavez (two innings), all of today's relievers should be able to go on Tuesday so who gets dropped in favor of Terrance Gore?
James Norwood?
Dillon Maples?
Jose Quintana?
Alec Mills?
Allen Webster?
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Cubs hitting numbers:
8/1 - .267/.347/.425/.772
9/30 - .259/.334/.411/.745
last 28 - .238/.304/.348/.652
Those stats are even worse when you consider the boost they received from Murphy.
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If the Cubs had not had to travel back to D.C. for that single make-up game, that's where they'd be today.
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What the freak happened to these guys?
I suppose 41 games in 42 days (or whatever it was) may have had something to do with it.
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What the freak happened to these guys?
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Cubs hitting numbers:
8/1 - .267/.347/.425/.772
9/30 - .259/.334/.411/.745
last 28 - .238/.304/.348/.652
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That's the Almora argument, anyway...
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If that's all you can see, for sure.
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In Almora's minor league career, he had 1733 plate appearances, and a career .738 OPS.
In Lindor's minor league career, he had 1880 plate appearances and a career .738 OPS.
You're right, it's very easy to see...
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Yeah, easy to see Almora and Lindor are very similar...
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I think br is still waiting for Francisco Lindor to revert back to the .738 OPS he had in 1880 plate appearances in the minors...
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I was out walking the dog this morning and it’s a very pleasant day. Overcast and cool but good fall weather. Maybe the wind is blowing harder above the trees but at ground level it’s calm. A wind off the lake is pretty typical at this time of the year so balls to RF will be affected a bit. Anyway, should be fun. Looking forward to getting over there today.
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I’m in Omaha where it is wet and cold so just going off of what other people are reporting. Buster described it as blowing right to left at 8:17.
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It’s very calm out right now. I suppose there is a slight breeze off the lake.
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41 in 42 days for the Cubs including today.
Score just said the wind is blowing in.
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Don’t overlook the grueling Aug/Sept schedule. Working that many days in a row is *rough* especially when you throw all the travel on top of it. I would bet dollars to donuts that if the Cubs had a more regular run they would have won outright.
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95 is ALWAYS a terrific season!
With what Cubs endured with the marathon road trip/extended games without a break, 95 wins is truly extraordinary, let alone with all other roadblocks Craig points out.
Who the heck knows what happens today, or tomorrow, but this year's team has EVERY reason in the world to feel incredibly proud today!
GO Cubs!
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Russell was injured when is hitting fell off a cliff. It wouldn’t shock me to hear something similar with Almora.
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Darvish, Morrow, Chatwood--they came up snake-eyes on all of those.
Darvish's year was a bummer. But Morrow was exactly what was expected--dominant when healthy, but he's been hurt almost every year of his career. What did you expect? Chatwood...they signed him solely because of his spin rate, and that was dumb. It turned out even worse than expected. But he was a ball-throwing, injury prone back end guy in Coors Field. Again, what did you expect?
disappointment from Russell, Happ, Schwarber, Almora.
They were all questionable at the end of last year, and none of them got much better. But Almora wasn't a disappointment--he may have actually exceeded expectations for a guy who had a low-.700s OPS above A ball in the minors.
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6. Contreras as a hitter, maybe he's underachieved? I'm not sure what the explanation for his decline has been.
Contreras was overworked early, but still was pretty much the same player he'd been in his first two years through July. I think he had some bad HR luck, but he hit a lot of doubles and triples in the first half.
Then he didn't get an All Star Break, and then still got overworked for a lot of the second half until Caratini started showing a little life in early September. Even with his reduced workload in September, he caught by far the most innings in MLB this year. It was mostly fatigue (and probably nagging injuries that come along with being the most active catcher in MLB).
I think the Cubs really need a strong backup next year. Maddon needs to have enough confidence in his backup to give Contreras two days off a week.
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Bryant being hurt, Rizzo's bad back at the start of the season, losing Marrow, Strop, Darvish, September from hell...
The Brewers by far got the best version of their team and the Cubs had pretty much everything go wrong.
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When the Brewers acquired both Yelich and Cain, a lot of people scratched their heads. I pointed this out to my son, and he commented that the way it worked out for the Brewers was absolutely best-case scenario. I think they've overachieved.
The Cubs, on the other hand--the most significant of their off-season moves worked out as poorly as could be expected: Darvish, Morrow, Chatwood--they came up snake-eyes on all of those. Then KB was a shell of himself for most of the season. So to still get 95 wins under those circumstances, while getting breakout season from only Baez with basically disappointment from Russell, Happ, Schwarber, Almora--I'm with Craig. Overachievement. I think Maddon deserves a lot of credit, most of which he won't get.
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The Brewers are very good, and better than I expected, but aren't a 95-win team, imo. They're beating their Pythagorean by five games.
I think the Cubs on paper should be good for 105+ wins. Certainly, the Darvish thing and Chatwood's demise play a big part in fewer victories. But I don't think the younger players have developed, save for Baez. Maybe you're right though, and some of us overestimated this team's potential.
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January 25 2018 was the best day in Brewers history. They got Yelich and Cain in one day. That's 13 fWAR--they're somewhere around an 85 win team without them.
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Brewers overachieved, Cubs underachieved. Been the case all year long.
I think I disagree about this, pretty strongly.
The Brewers:
1. are a really good team.
2. They were a good team last year, and it took into September for the Cubs to pull away from them last year.
3. They added an MVP guy with MVP talent who's having a fabulous year; maybe that's a career year, but I'm not sure that he's overachieving. The guy just looks like a better hitter than anybody we see hitting for the Cubs.
4. And they added Cain, who's been fabulous too.
5. Maybe you could argue that their rotation has overachieved; I wouldn't argue that.
6. But they've got a terrific, talented bullpen. No fluke there, I don't think.
Cubs:
1. I kinda feel like they've overachieved, if anything; and more than Milwaukee.
2. Watching the stuff that Lester, Hendricks, and Quintana need to work with every start, I think they are all three of them huge overachievers to do as well as they've done. To compete as well as they do with what they have to work with, fantastic!
3. Think Baez has been a max-achiever this year as well.
4. Bullpen has been remarkably good, given the personnel and the heavy usage.
5. Zobrist has been a huge achiever/overachiever this year also.
6. Contreras as a hitter, maybe he's underachieved? I'm not sure what the explanation for his decline has been.
7. Otherwise, given the health and the talents they've got, I'm not sure I see the offense having underachieved much? *Bryant's been variably hurt, and he's always been a high-K guy; the K's without HR's, he is what he is, what should we have expected?
*I know Theo and Maddon and we hoped that Russell, Happ, and Schwarber would evolve and age into better hitters. But at this point I think we should probably accept that they are pretty much .240-hitters, that's just who they are; and velocity can beat them.
8. Managerially, given what a flimsy rotation they've had, a patchwork pen, the injuries, the Darvish/Chatwood control problems, and how much they've struggled to score runs consistently, I'm not sure I can fault the manager for getting only 95 or 96 wins out of that crew! I kind of see that as having overachieved, not underachieved.
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Brewers overachieved, Cubs underachieved. Been the case all year long.
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I really thought 95 wins would win the division at the beginning of September. Never thought the Brewers would sweep the Tards in St Louis early in the week but they did. I really don’t feel like the Cubs choked even though we lost a 51/2 game lead in September. The Brewers played very well and caught some breaks to finish like they have.
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Edwards 2.31 ERA, Chisek 2.77
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Rondon stats by half this year
Interesting. Fits with injuries and getting worn down, or maybe overuse. I wonder what that looks like for Cishek and Edwards. Not dissimilar, I expect.
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Rondon stats by half this year
1st: 1.57 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
2nd: 5.70 ERA, 1.52 WHIP
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I must have missed the "up"...
Hard to give that much credit for de la Rosa, as I'm convinced that was a total stab in the dark even Theo expected to fail. But Chavez was a shrewd move to be sure. Also, for all the stick Hickey has gotten over the regression of guys like Chatwood and Quintana, it's worth nothing that the Cubs have gotten an awful lot of mileage out of fringy bullpen guys all year long. Maybe he deserves a little credit for that?
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Rosario gets overlooked.
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Kintzler has been up and down, but both de la Rosa and Chavez have been amazing, and they cost us basically nothing. With the injuries to Morrow and Strop, the Cubs would be absolutely sunk without those two, Chavez especially.
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Kintzler?
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Meanwhile, the bullpen acquisitions made by Theo/Hoyer this year have been *outstanding*.
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I disagree. This is the time to get a handle on his likely effectiveness for the postseason, if the appropriate low leverage situation presents itself.
Complete agreement with Playtwo here. Give him a bit of a test drive if possible.
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It's also worth noting that while Rondon has been decent this year in Houston, it's not like he's been elite or anything. If he was putting up those numbers for the Cubs the moaners would be ranting about how much he sucks.
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Rondon didn't earn much trust in his last year and a half as a Cub. I think it was mainly because he wasn't healthy...but he was still not very good from about the time they got Chapman.
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There was a time that he wouldn't let Hendricks pitch the third time through the order. Sometimes the General Manager has to ignore the wishes of the manager.
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I think it was pretty clear Maddon had no trust in Rondon and never would, and Theo acted based on that.
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Remember when Theo and Hoyer decided that Justin Grimm was a better option than Hector Rondon? The non-success of the Chatwood, Yu, and Morrow signings gets more attention. But the Rondon decision might have been the most dumb and grim mistake of them all.
I was also a Rondon fan. But it is unfair to look at single decisions in absence of context. They also decided to take a chance on mediocre relievers such as Chavez and De La Rosa, or a washed up starter like Hamels.
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I think being up a game with three to play has a lot to do with that.
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Fangraphs has the Cubs with a 77.7% chance to win the division. That seems high, and if you take every remaining game as a coin flip, the Cubs have a 42/64 chance to win the division outright, a 15/64 chance of finishing tied (so a 7.5/64 chance of winning a one-game playoff), and a 7/64 chance of ending up behind Milwaukee without a playoff. So 49.5/64, or 77.3%, of being division champions.
But we're playing a fearsome team battling for their postseason lives and out to get us, whereas the Brewers are up against a tail ender with little to play for. Fangraphs giving us better odds than pure luck would is a blog surprise -- or they think our exhausted, injury plagued team really can get it done.
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I don't think they preferred Grimm to Rondon. They just thought Grimm was cheap enough that it was worth tendering a contract to him to see if he could suddenly show something in Spring Training.
Rondon stayed healthy this year, that's the key for him. He'd been battling injuries for a season and a half, and had almost retired earlier in his career (just before the Cubs picked him up) because of injury problems. I'm sure they concluded his health was just too much of a question to pay him $6 million this year.
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Double influence?
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I think Joe's lack of trust in Rondon was influenced by a few trips to Binny's Beverage Depot...
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I think the Rondon decision was influenced by Joe's lack of trust in Rondon.
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Hated that decision...then and now...
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Remember when Theo and Hoyer decided that Justin Grimm was a better option than Hector Rondon? The non-success of the Chatwood, Yu, and Morrow signings gets more attention. But the Rondon decision might have been the most dumb and grim mistake of them all.
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Thanks, Dave! That's cool that he's close enough to even be under consideration.
It would be fun if the Cubs had some kind of offensive explosion and had a 4-1 lead or something in a game. Bring Strop into the 7th inning or 8th, with more than just Kintzler and Garcia and Maples left in reserve. If he's fine and sharp, awesome. If he's like Wild-Maples or Wild-Edwards or Justin Grimm, then have somebody else in reserve.
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I disagree. This is the time to get a handle on his likely effectiveness for the postseason, if the appropriate low leverage situation presents itself.
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That would be a mistake.
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That was the talk on the telecast last night...he might make an appearance this weekend.
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Any word or gossip on Strop's comeback?
*Not sure if he'll be able to come back and be good, even if he does come back. Kinda like Bryant, coming back at 50% doesn't necessarily help all that much.
*But *IF* Strop was able to come back and pitch as well as he did through the year, and now with his arm strong and well rested, that would be very helpful.
Would be kind of especially dramatic if he showed up this weekend and helped win a game.
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Jayson Stark agrees with me...Javy for MVP...
https://theathletic.com/550102/2018/09/26/stark-mvp-lvp-cy-young-cy-yuk-its-time-to-hand-out-end-of-season-awards/
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I'm hoping the Cubs will go 4-1 in their remaining games. The Brewers would have to sweep to get into a 1 game playoff with us to determine the Division champ with the loser being a wildcard team. Let's start it off with a win tonight.
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Possible Scenario?
Cubs and Brewers tie for the division with the best record in Baseball.
Monday playoff game in Chicago for division Cubs lose.
Wild Card game in Chicago the Cubs could win.
Brewers lose first round.
Cubs have to play all remaining playoff series' without home field even though they have the best record in the league.
I think it is time for MLB to reevaluate the home field thing.
I think it is time for the Cubs to reevaluate their hitting approach. Maybe launching a few homers here and there isn't the worse thing.
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@TonyAndracki23
Cole Hamels has as many homers this month as Kris Bryant, Ben Zobrist, David Bote, Tommy La Stella, Jason Heyward, Albert Almora Jr., Willson Contreras and Addison Russell COMBINED.
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Possible Scenario?
Cubs and Brewers tie for the division with the best record in Baseball.
Monday playoff game in Chicago for division Cubs lose.
Wild Card game in Chicago the Cubs could win.
Brewers lose first round.
Cubs have to play all remaining playoff series' without home field even though they have the best record in the league.
I think it is time for MLB to reevaluate the home field thing.
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What does it say Dave?
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Bryant’s X-ray is negative, but he will be out tomorrow.
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Rosenthal has a new piece at The Athletic re: the Addison Russell situation...
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I don't think either team is susceptible to bribes.
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Would much rather pay the Braves than the Brewers.
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Yes. Cubs were the wild card in 2015 and faced the Cardinals in the NLDS.
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Playoff Q: If the Cubs hold on to the best record in the league, will we still automatically play the wildcard team? Even if it turned out to be the Brewers and they had maybe the 2nd best record in the league?
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See Jes.
You're not always a SOB and I knew you'd agree with me regarding Addison Russell.
Why cant you always be like this?
~sigh~
Two points --
1) Based on actually reading your comments, and knowing quite well both my position regarding Russell and everything I have written here regarding Russell (which doesn't encompass my entire position on him), I strongly suspect that our agreement on Russell is far less than you seem to think. For instance I suspect that we both agree that Russell is a male, has played SS for the Chicago Cubs, and that his ex-wife or estranged wife (or whatever she is) is quite upset with him, and that while she has aggressively trashed him and his reputation, she so far has not set out in any meaningfully substantive form what if anything she says he physically did to her.
2) In class this morning I was explaining to my 8th grade Special Education kids how backhanded compliments are not only generally less than sincere, but how they generally end up making the person extending the "compliment" look bad, well, actually looking a bit disgusting. The 8th grade Special Education kids all got it.
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If Strop could be good to go by playoffs, that would be quite helpful. If Cubs can hold off the Brewers, the won't open until next Thursday. So if Strop is currently "hoping" to pitch this week, maybe actually being ready to to so by next Thursday isn't totally unrealistic?
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Carrie Muskat does an interesting interview with Terrance Gore plus Bryant and Strop updates
https://www.mlb.com/cubs/news/terrance-gore-impressing-cubs-with-speed/c-295722552
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Aside from making her feel bad, what exactly is it that his wife says Russell did?
Assuming EVERYTHING she says is completely accurate, just what is it he did to her?
Clean slate? LOL
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See Jes.
You're not always a SOB and I knew you'd agree with me regarding Addison Russell.
Why cant you always be like this?
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When I was about 18 or 19 I bought about 50 playstation games for about 30 bucks.
I took them straight to a gamestop and sold them for about 300.
A few days later the cops show up at my house to arrest me because they were stolen.
I bond out of jail right on the spot and on the day of my court date I explain to the sheriff what happened and he says if I can pass a polygraph he'll drop the charges.
I did and never even had to go in front of a judge.
That's the worst thing Ive ever done.
Not going in front of a judge does not change things. From what you have described, you were charged. The public record of that charge remains a public record. Expungement literally eliminates the record. Tennessee is one of only a handful of states to allow this.
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When I was about 18 or 19 I bought about 50 playstation games for about 30 bucks.
I took them straight to a gamestop and sold them for about 300.
A few days later the cops show up at my house to arrest me because they were stolen.
I bond out of jail right on the spot and on the day of my court date I explain to the sheriff what happened and he says if I can pass a polygraph he'll drop the charges.
I did and never even had to go in front of a judge.
That's the worst thing Ive ever done.
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Ive got a criminal record as clean as slate.
I got accused of stealing some video games and selling them when I was much younger but I was proven innocent and the charges were dropped.
Never probation or found guilty of anything in my life.
Dismissed charges are not close to the same as a "clean slate."
You probably should look at having the entire record of the case you mentioned expunged. It's a simple process. Stop by the clerk's office for the court that handled the case, tell them you want it expunged, and you can probably do it yourself. When I was practicing, it was so simple I only charged $125 bucks for it.... and felt guilty about getting that much.
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The way some here have already made up your mind on Russell is unreal.
Aside from making her feel bad, what exactly is it that his wife says Russell did?
Assuming EVERYTHING she says is completely accurate, just what is it he did to her?
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Ive got a criminal record as clean as slate.
I got accused of stealing some video games and selling them when I was much younger but I was proven innocent and the charges were dropped.
Never probation or found guilty of anything in my life.
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I suspect you’ve never been falsely accused either.
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The way some here have already made up your mind on Russell is unreal.
The consensus all over the net is a lot closer to 50/50.
This girl has not one time called the police or anything and refused to cooperate with MLB last year when she conveniently made these claims at the same time and its nothing but his word against hers and we dont know either one of them from Adam and the crew here already has found Addison guilty.
I guess no one here has ever been falsely accused.
We must have a large crew of home schooled virgins.
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Keep digging.
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https://www.cubshq.com/amp/update/Russells-girlfriend-He-doesnt-need-career-destroyed-by-bitter-ex-wife-25584?__twitter_impression=true
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The depth of your stupidity is astonishing.
You don't come around here much... do ya?
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In reading the blog, did I miss allegations of actual physical abuse? I see allegations that he threatened physical abuse but not actual abuse.
In the current climate, why is actual abuse even needed? Sh!t, why are actual allegations even needed?
What we find at https://lifewithmelis310373032.wordpress.com/ is far less about what she even claims Russell did than it is about how she feels and felt.
It is a very sad state of affairs if Russell gets sanctioned not for what he did, or even for what someone alleges he did, but instead based on how someone feels, because that is all that is really set out in her blog.
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So you're a board moderator too? How do you get the time away from combing through all my posts?
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No
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Can we keep the ridiculous political partaking in the political thread?
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Stick with the race-baiting, Dusty - that's your comfort zone.
As for Murphy as a FA, no way I'd touch that. His defense anywhere but 1B is already terrible, and we have a 1B.
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With guys like Dusty around, it’s hard to imagine why women are so reluctant to come forward when they are victims of abuse. I look forward to his thoughtful comments about the Kavanaugh situation. I’m sure he’ll continue to be a great representative of the Christian faith.
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Im guilty of two things here.
1-I dont care one bit what type of person these players are off the field and fully believe if we personally knew a lot of them we'd view them very differently. All I care about is their on field performance.
There is NOTHING about this perspective that is Christ-like, aka, Christian.
2-Its his side against hers and none of us know the real truth. If you believe Addison its because you want to and if you dont its because you want to.
I guess Im just not so quick to rush to judgement on people.
The bible taught me that too.
Your posts have been full of nothing but AWFUL judgement towards Addison’s ex wife. Do you seriously not see that? You’re not suggesting that people avoid rushing to judgement. You’re demonizing the accuser, heaping judgement upon judgement.
I know Im not the only man here who sees what's going on.
Yes, thank god for the perspective of patriarchal, toxic masculinity that is endemic to our culture.
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And Zack Cozart for Tyler Chatwood would be salary neutral trade of two disappointing free agents who might benefit from a fresh start. Anyone else?
Cozart had shoulder surgery and that always scares me. Conforto had a nice rebound this year coming off on shoulder surgery, so it might be a nice idea.
I guess Im just not so quick to rush to judgement on people.
The bible taught me that too.
If he truly did beat his wife then send him down the road.
Stick with this, everything else is just a bad. Really bad, horrible, and stupid.
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I guess Im just not so quick to rush to judgement on people.
You immediately called an alleged victim of domestic abuse a liar and a gold digger who is just seeking attention. You are rushing to judgment faster than anyone here.
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Im guilty of two things here.
1-I dont care one bit what type of person these players are off the field and fully believe if we personally knew a lot of them we'd view them very differently. All I care about is their on field performance.
2-Its his side against hers and none of us know the real truth. If you believe Addison its because you want to and if you dont its because you want to.
I guess Im just not so quick to rush to judgement on people.
The bible taught me that too.
If he truly did beat his wife then send him down the road.
But...if he didnt then Kanye might have a point.
I need more than her sob story to believe her.
My first child's mother claims I hit her in the past and I never touched her.
She never claimed that until I got married.
Addison just got another girl pregnant and now Melissa wants to talk.
Come on man.
I know Im not the only man here who sees what's going on.
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I wonder if this might make Murphy more attractive as a free agent? The other option would be Harper with Zobrist/Happ at 2B or Machado for SS and Baez to 2B.
Murphy needs to go to a team that can use him at 1B or DH. He's done as a second baseman after this year, I think.
The Cubs probably do need to do something in the middle infield this offseason now, though. Outside of Machado, the free agent market doesn't look good unless you expect a Brian Dozier rebound or you buy into DJ LeMahieu outside of Coors.
If they don't go after Machado, who is going to be available in trades? The Royals should deal Whit Merrifield and he seems like a good fit, but they don't seem to be willing to commit to a full rebuild. The Rangers may be tearing down, so I guess I could be convinced that Elvis Andrus wouldn't be terrible if his early season wrist injury caused his down year. And Zack Cozart for Tyler Chatwood would be salary neutral trade of two disappointing free agents who might benefit from a fresh start. Anyone else?
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I’ve typed like 10 different replies to Jiggy and then deleted before posting. Wtf is wrong with people?
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I wonder if this might make Murphy more attractive as a free agent? The other option would be Harper with Zobrist/Happ at 2B or Machado for SS and Baez to 2B.
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I was actually wondering how the Cubs were going to get Murphy and or Zobrist out there for the playoffs. I guess this way Baez is at SS, Bryant at 3B, and Murphy or Zobrist at 2B or RF for Zobrist.
I was hoping they were going to trade Russell for Machado earlier in the season and now I REALLY wished they had.
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6 months from now when we see she's now dating Lorenzo Cain I want apologies from all of you.
Im done with the subject now.
The depth of your stupidity is astonishing.
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I bet he's played his last game as a Cub.
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Russell put on administrative leave by MLB.
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6 months from now when we see she's now dating Lorenzo Cain I want apologies from all of you.
Im done with the subject now.
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She definitely hinted at physical abuse a few times, though she didn't say specifically what happened.
The first time I was physically mistreated by my spouse, I was in shock. I couldn’t wrap my head around what just happened…Why did he get so angry? What did I do for him to want to put his hands on me?
About a month after leaving, I returned for a visit so my son could see his father, also in hopes that maybe, just maybe I’d see a change in my husband. But, as I expected our visit was a nightmare, I swore to myself it would be the last time he’d lay his hands on me & it would be that last time I’d let my son be a witness to it.
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In reading the blog, did I miss allegations of actual physical abuse? I see allegations that he threatened physical abuse but not actual abuse.
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Melissa must be a Brewers fan.
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SMH...
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Per Twitter, Theo is talking to the team about the Russell situation at 12:50 local time, then talking to the media after that.
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He has put on a break when the allegations happened last year. If the wife will talk to MLB I would expect a suspension to follow quiclky.
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Kelly Crull @Kelly_Crull
As first bus walked in with #Cubs players, there was no Addison Russell & team personnel said they “do not expect him to be here.”
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I didnt say anything unchristian.
Yeah...when a woman makes a credible accusation of domestic violence, the moral thing to do is to immediately call her a liar and a gold digger.
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Back to being unchristian...
Proverbs 27:15 - A continual dropping in a very rainy day and a contentious woman are alike.
Proverbs 21:9 - [It is] better to dwell in a corner of the housetop, than with a brawling woman in a wide house.
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I couldn't disagree more with Dusty. Addison is at fault here, obviously needs counseling and more importantly a life change. Whether the Cubs want to give him that chance is up to them. But as a father of 8 daughters my heart breaks for this girl. She deserves better and I'm glad she appears to have found it.
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I didnt say anything unchristian.
All I said was dont be so quick to rush to judgement over a woman has has been quick to seek attention and throw dirt on Addison in the past.
Didnt he just get another chick pregnant?
How much do you think the ex just loves that?
We must have a very sheltered crew here to not understand the motives and ways of a woman scorned.
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Nice “Christian” response, Dusty.
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https://youtu.be/6vwNcNOTVzY
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As if on cue.
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There's 3 sides to every story.
Her side,his side,and the truth.
Lets not forget how valuable his glove is when we read these attention seeking stories from a gold digger.
Im sorry Addison has to deal with such headaches.
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I'm missing something. I don't see Russell's name in there anywhere. Did something get cut off? Did I miss it?
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As I have mentioned several times over the last year.....the Cubs have been trying to trade Russell for quite some time due to character concerns.
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Well, in practical terms I think David Bote is your backup SS for the postseason.
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They did investigate last year and his ex-wife apparently did not want to cooperate. if that’s true, it would be tough for them to really do anything based on second hand allegations and hearsay. It’s a different situation now that she’s talking.
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One thing that concerns me is that assuming this is all or mostly true, the Cubs having basically done nothing when the initial allegation was raised reflects very badly on them. It's hard to believe they had no inkling this was going on if there was an actual investigation (which the Cubs should have insisted upon whether MLB did one or not). Just because MLB is the callow, gutless organization we know them to be doesn't mean the Cubs couldn't have taken disciplinary action on their own.
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Although the baseball implications feel so secondary in a moment like this, I understand that will be a natural question. I would be very surprised if Russell is with the team this weekend when they play the White Sox, and I would not be surprised if discipline comes swiftly from the Cubs and/or MLB. There will be a renewed investigation, undoubtedly, and I think even if Melisa chooses not to be involved – which is her right – there will probably be punishment forthcoming.
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If true, cut his ass yesterday.
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Russell's ex-wife tells her story (linked from her Instagram account according to Bleacher Nation):
https://lifewithmelis310373032.wordpress.com/
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Jon Morosi
Verified account
@jonmorosi
8h8 hours ago
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Javier Baez is the first player in @MLB history to hit more than 30 home runs during a season in which he’s played at least 20 games at second base, third base and shortstop. A point to consider in the NL MVP discussion . . . @MLBNetwork @Cubs
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The basket on Zobrist's bike, I know 'cause I have one, is for a case of beer on the ride home. It's a perfect fit.
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I don't always used purple.
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So you're writing off Chatwood?
Since I didn’t see purple I’ll assume that’s a serious question. For this year, obviously. After that, no.
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The Cubs have added Webster and put Morrow on the 60 day DL.
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May as well roll the dice on Webster at this point. He might get multiple opportunities to show his stuff if we clinch early, and there's a desperate need for another arm with plus stuff down there. Maples clearly isn't going to be a postseason option with his laughable command.
So you're writing off Chatwood?
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May as well roll the dice on Webster at this point. He might get multiple opportunities to show his stuff if we clinch early, and there's a desperate need for another arm with plus stuff down there. Maples clearly isn't going to be a postseason option with his laughable command.
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I'm still hopeful that it'll be the Rockies in the NLDS (assuming the Cubs win the division). The Wild Card game is basically a coin flip--even the Brewers won't be more than a 60% favorite to win the game.
If the Cubs do win the division and remain one of the top two seeds for the NLDS, they won't leave Chicago for about 15 days after they get home early tomorrow morning. That will be helpful for them.
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Considering we're probably going to have to beat the Brewers in the NLDS that's not all that encouraging.
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The National league bullpens outside of the Brewers are all question marks and the Brewers only really have Hader and Jeffers.
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A pitcher coming back too soon from a hammy problem? Rick Sutcliffe on line 2.
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FWIW, Bleacher Nation had an article this morning saying that Strop was hoping to get back for the last two games of the season so he can tune up for the playoffs. That would be a lift if that happened and he looked good.
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Jesse Rogers
Verified account
@ESPNChiCubs
Follow Follow @ESPNChiCubs
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Theo identified a June 2 game v Mets that set Morrow back. He wasn’t sched to pitch but game went 14 innings. Said next year he told Morrow that when he’s down for the day he’s going to tell him to come to the park without his spikes. Was not kidding.
That could be interpreted in a couple of different ways...
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Not a surprise with Morrow, but still - that sucks. Once more we go into the postseason with a bullpen that's a huge question mark.
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Some talk about Webster getting called up.
The Cubs use Northwestern’s medical staff, I’m not sure if they can get better Chicago based doctors.
The head trainer has been around since 2012, so I guess he could be in some hot water.
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Morrow has been shut down for the season.
I'm not going to be surprised if there's a big shake-up in the Cubs medical staff this offseason. The three biggest injury situations this year--Bryant, Darvish, and Morrow--all seem to have been handled in a less than ideal way.
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He does have a point. What, exactly, is anybody supposed to do about this now? Maddon criticized Contreras and Contreras apologized (whether he meant it or not). It's kind of pointless to keep talking about it, isn't it?
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Did you expect Maddon to give him a belt whipping?
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Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs 18m18 minutes ago
Joe Maddon went the other way today re Willson Contreras not running out of the box on Sunday. Says too much piling on: “He apologized. It’s over.”
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 15m15 minutes ago
Maddon thinks everyone should turn the page on Contreras, says Contreras apologized and knows what he did wrong.
He knows what he did wrong? How long did it take for him to figure that out?
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Ron... Dude...
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I guess he is more secure in his manhood than some people. 😉
Translation: Ron has a basket on his bike.
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He has a freaking basket on his bike? Dude...
I guess he is more secure in his manhood than some people. 😉
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He has a freaking basket on his bike? Dude...
I would have said for his glove, but I don't see it in there.
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He has a freaking basket on his bike? Dude...
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Kyle Schwarber won't be with the Cubs in Arizona
https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/09/17/kyle-schwarber-wont-travel-to-arizona-with-the-cubs/
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Zobrist commuting to work (no helmet, riding on sidewalk):
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DnOkjMdVsAADxak.jpg:large)
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Still sounds dodgy, but whatever we get I'll take.
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Morrow might be available to pitch in Arizona: https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/09/15/brandon-morrows-simulated-game-went-well-could-return-next-series/
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They werent allowed to swing.
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Schwarber and Gore just hit against Morrow in his one inning sym game. Nothing said about how any of them did.
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Thanks guys re Schwarber...man, we need him to get hot at the plate if/when he returns!
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They expect him to play this season.
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Anyone know of an update on Schwarber? When he will be available to play again?
On the radio broadcast, they said he is swinging but still feels stiffness / pain bending down to field. Didn't mention when he will return.
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Anyone know of an update on Schwarber? When he will be available to play again?
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Davish update
https://twitter.com/kelly_crull/status/1039989417472126976
The reactions posted to the tweet are a bit sad.
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Gotta get Edwards going.
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Well, without Strop that's probably true. Maddon bumbled his way into being right.
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Carrie Muskat @CarrieMuskat 15m15 minutes ago
#Cubs Maddon says Edwards will be key. "We cannot win without him. We cannot advance in the tournament without him pitching as well as he possibly can. You've got to keep putting him out there, you've got to rebuild his confidence"
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Sim game for Morrow tommorow. Big time heave and hope on that one.
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Cubs have a 5.5 game lead over Dodgers and 8.5 over Arizona for the last wildcard spot, if I'm tracking the standings correctly, with 16 games left.
Cardinals have a brutal schedule left, with Dodgers, Braves, Brewers, and Cubs left, and only Giants as a lesser opponent.
Dodgers have Cardinals, Rockies, and Arizona left. So fair chance that even if they were to get super-hot and put pressure on the Cubs, they might be pushing the Cardinals or Rockies back in the process.
Holding off the Brewers for the division is one thing; just getting in is another.
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I asked Sharma about Quintana, specifically how he can be effective when he is so predictable in throwing his 91-93 mph fastball. He was pretty upbeat about Quintana. He said that Quintana's location and movement are the keys to his success and that being off-balance in his windup is what had caused him problems earlier in the season. . He said a simple change in Quintana pointing his foot downward as he lifts his front leg has made an important overall difference maintaining his balance, and that's why he's been so much better recently.
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It wont surprise me a bit if we go back to the World Series.
Hell even if Milwaukee does catch us we'll still be in good shape for the wild card.
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At the Athletic event, when asked who he thinks Joe will use as a closer with Strop injured, Sharma said he expects Wilson is most likely to be the guy.
Sharma said he believes that Darvish's injury was the reason he pitched so poorly early in the season, and he thinks he'll be fine next year, though Sharma thinks it remains to be seen what kind of October pitcher he will be.
In spite of the feast or famine offense and the absence of a closer, he said not to give up on the Cubs, and specifically said that people underestimate just how valuable Bryant could be now that he's back, if he breaks out.
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With the Baez HR, the Cubs have increased their lead on San Diego for 11th in the NL in HR's, and they have moved up to 22nd in MLB, with a comfy lead over the 23rd-place Twins.
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http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24665452/anthony-rizzo-chicago-cubs-wears-uniform-overnight-flight-joke-makeup-game-vs-washington-nationals
What I noted was the legroom provided the players. There is none. Those seats are adjustable. Why wouldn't the team plane or the charter, move the seats to give the guys more legroom? Just wonderin'.
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Someone asked about the prospects for a strike at the end of this contract. Both said they think it is extremely doubtful because of the declining influence of the union, the increased influence of agents, and the changing perspectives/attitudes of the players.
They also both bemoaned the lack of action during games resulting from the dominance of HRs and strikeouts.
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Gammons and Rosenthal both are fans of Chase Hutley. Gammons told a story about the time that Raul Ibanez was about to face Aroldis Chapman and told Hutley that there was no way he could do anything against him. Utley told him he should take a couple of strikes, then move up right over the plate. He said Chapman would take offense and throw inside, and Utley should let it hit him. Ibanez said something to the effect of "but he's throwing 105 miles an hour." Utley said, "yeah, but you'll be on first base and could be the winning run."
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Yeah, the last time we brought Strop back for the postseason from an injury he worked out great.
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Losing Strop for 2+ weeks is tough. If there is a plus side, he has already thrown almost as many innings as he did last year and shutting him down for a couple of weeks isn't the worst thing assuming that the pen can hold up without him (and assuming that Strop is healthy going into the postseason). There is no reason to panic from my perspective.
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Just left an event with Athletic writers including Gammons, Rosenthal, Sharma and Mooney. Will try to remember and recount some things from it.
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I also love Tony's gimmick of flying in game uniform. Anything to loosen things up a bit.
Rizzo just dove for a ball and the front of his uni is now covered with dirt.
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Supposedly Maddon isn't taking the whole team to DC for today's game. The other starters, Schwarber with his bad back, and the other unavailable relievers are staying behind. I like this idea. Might as well give some of the team a much needed day off.
I also love Tony's gimmick of flying in game uniform. Anything to loosen things up a bit.
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40 games in 42 days. That seems like too much. These guys are not robots. I think they’ll hang on but it’s hard to see them at their best in the playoffs.
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Cannot believe MLB is forcing the Cubs to play the game today. Absolutely inexcusable, horrible, atrocious handling of the situation. No days off in a month. Fly into a hurricane. Complete and total garbage. Utter bullshit.
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Supposedly Maddon isn't taking the whole team to DC for today's game. The other starters, Schwarber with his bad back, and the other unavailable relievers are staying behind. I like this idea. Might as well give some of the team a much needed day off.
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 21m21 minutes ago
The Cubs are in discussions with the City of Chicago to move the starting time of Friday's game against the Reds at Wrigley Field from 1:20 p.m. to 7:05 p.m.
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I think it’s very likely, actually. His elbow was probably not quite right from the beginning of the year but because he had ligsmet issues in the past and it didn’t feel the same, he tried to pitch through it.
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That's really encouraging. I'd been kinda assuming that he'd need TJ or something major, and would spend all of next season doing rehab kind of like Smiley has this year. The concept that DArvish might be "completely healthy" in spring sounds good.
I wonder if whatever was wrong with him impacted his pitching before he went DL? He didn't seem to have any command of any of his pitches, not even his fastball. I suppose it's hypothetically possible that if his arm wasn't extending correctly, or was hurting and thus causing him to do weird stuff to moderate the discomfort, maybe that might optimistically be remediated next season?
Not likely, I assume he's just wild at this stage of his career. But would be fun if he could throw strikes more consistently....
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Wait, wasn’t he faking?
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Davish update
https://twitter.com/kelly_crull/status/1039989417472126976
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State of Emergency declaration only means funding can be disbursed in advance right?
But likely to be rainy and windy anyway - certainly not good baseball weather
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I think most pilots have the right to say, "Nope. Not taking my craft into that."
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A state of emergency was just declared in DC ahead of the hurricane. In related news, the Cubs are still scheduled to fly to DC tonight and play tomorrow. Very smart.
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Negative Nancy.
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There's a chance Morrow could be back as soon as this weekend: https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/09/11/brandon-morrows-got-another-bullpen-session-scheduled-could-return-this-weekend/
Longshot he's any help. Long, long shot.
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The Cubs are up 1 in the division but up two in the loss column. If they can take just 1 of the remaining two then get healthy against the Reds they are still in the driver's seat.
The Cubs have two extra games to play. Being up in the loss column is helpful to the team with more games played. The Cubs have to win at least one of their extra games to end up a game ahead. Two losses there means a tie.
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If the Cubs get rained out of Washington then only 3 of their remaining games this season are outside of Chicago. After Milwaukee leaves town the Cubs have the last place Reds this weekend, then travel to Arizona for three. Then a day off before returning to play against the White Sox and home against Pittsburgh and St Louis. If they lose this division to Milwaukee then they deserve to. The Brewers are as hot as a firecracker right now. That is hard to sustain over a 3 week period. Even against subpar competition. The Cubs are up 1 in the division but up two in the loss column. If they can take just 1 of the remaining two then get healthy against the Reds they are still in the driver's seat.
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With the current weather forecast, a lot of teams are going to be rescheduling or not playing a bunch of games.
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Good news from Nationals beat writer for MLB.com:
Jamal Collier @JamalCollier
As of now, the Nats are planning to start Joe Ross on Thursday against the Cubs
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There's a chance Morrow could be back as soon as this weekend: https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/09/11/brandon-morrows-got-another-bullpen-session-scheduled-could-return-this-weekend/
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Expect the same announcement on Morrow this week.
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Cubs announce Smyly will not be an option this year. Shocked there was even the idea he could be.
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I am sure that the Cubs management is constantly considering other options. If Strop falters in September, or if Maddon loses faith in him, they will exercise one of those options.
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Strop has never pitched a season with the Cubs where he had an ERA higher than 2.91. I think the stretches where he has been really, really bad are less common than you think.
Look at last year as an example - he was literally good-awful in alternating months all season. And he's tended to be bad late in the season, though in 2016 he obviously had an injury he could blame that on.
Strop has been good as the closer this year, no argument. But the guy has a history, plain and simple, of something going off the rails, especially in high-pressure situations. Of getting into phases where he refuses to throw a fastball. Of losing command altogether. They don't happen with tremendous regularity but they aren't unicorn moments, either. He's a good pitcher, and he may even be our best option for closer right now. But I wouldn't stop considering other options, that's for sure.
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Strop has never pitched a season with the Cubs where he had an ERA higher than 2.91. I think the stretches where he has been really, really bad are less common than you think.
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But it would fit with Joe's historic lack of confidence in Strop. He's been consistently good since the day he joined the Cubs...
Except for the stretches when he's been really, really bad.
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Strop is our closer.
Edwards,Wilson,Cishek,Kintzler,and Chavez are our setup men.
That's not too bad.
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Joe had no confidence in Rondon either which, I think, finally resulted in Rondon losing his confidence.
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Wilson should be pitching the highest leverage situations against LHH in the postseason. Throwing him in the closer's role then asking Strop, Cishek, or Chavez to get the biggest outs against LHH seems less than ideal.
But it would fit with Joe's historic lack of confidence in Strop. He's been consistently good since the day he joined the Cubs, but Joe has always seemed to look for reasons not to trust him.
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I would like to see Edwards as closer. It would be the shocker move that other teams wouldn't be ready for.
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Many relievers tend to have good years and bad years. He had a good year in Detroit and functioned well as a closer. It seems that Wilson is having a good year this year, and I would have no problem using him as a closer if needed.
However, Strop is also having a good year, and is functioning very well as the closer. I see no reason to give the closer job to Wilson, unless Strop needs a rest now and then, or if the opposing team has several good left handed hitters coming up in the ninth.
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I think I read that Wilson leads the league in % runners stranded. It certainly seems that he's ready to take on higher leverage situations.
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Sharma also has a piece suggesting Wilson could be the closer in the postseason. I’m sure that will go over like a lead balloon around here.
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I'd love to see Happ take a big step forward.
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Happ is making some adjustments that will hopefully yield positive results: https://theathletic.com/509965/2018/09/07/a-slight-tweak-has-some-believing-ian-happ-is-in-for-a-big-september-hes-on-the-cusp-of-getting-red-hot/
Thanks, Playtwo. Sharma is terrific and this is a fascinating piece. Baseball sure has changed with the insertion of a more scientific and analytic approach. Guys who embrace that can seemingly benefit a lot.
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It would be great if it works. Happ certainly seems to have underperformed his talents for most of the season. Danny Murphy showed in 2015 how much it can help a team when a player gets really hot in the playoffs. Cespedes did the same thing for the Mets.
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Happ is making some adjustments that will hopefully yield positive results: https://theathletic.com/509965/2018/09/07/a-slight-tweak-has-some-believing-ian-happ-is-in-for-a-big-september-hes-on-the-cusp-of-getting-red-hot/
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https://www.mlb.com/news/chicago-cubs-are-a-dynasty/c-293649802
That's a really good article. Thanks for sharing.
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Christopher Kamka @ckamka 8h8 hours ago
David Bote in 21 plate appearances this season in 9th inning or later:
.421/.476/1.053, 3 2B, 3 HR, 10 RBI
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https://www.mlb.com/news/chicago-cubs-are-a-dynasty/c-293649802
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Morrow is going to try throwing off the mound Sunday but things still sound pretty bleak to me.
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I'm less worried about the closing than what this does to the 7th and 8th innings. I mean, I admit I don't really trust Strop but to give him his due, he's been great. But with Morrow this could have been a real shutdown bullpen (which we need, given our un-dominant rotation).
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ABE
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Most of Morrow's seasons have been injury-plagued, so it's not really a surprise.
Strop has been really good as closer, Cishek and Wilson have experience doing it, and I have no doubt that the current version of Chavez would be fine in that role too. It's a blow, but the Cubs have depth.
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Sounds like Morrow isn’t coming back. Not unexpected but that would be a real blow.
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Smyly is going to have to be added to the 40 over the winter anyway. If he's pain-free, don't see a lot of downside in adding him now and seeing what he can give you.
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Cubs lefty Drew Smyly (tommy john) threw 23 pitches in a sim game today and says he thinks he's ready to return to the big leagues though he and the front office have to discuss his next step. Joe Maddon has indicated in recent days he's curious to see what Smyly can give them down the stretch.
http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-41030517-4
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Watching the 3 HRs we hit yesterday...Nola made mistakes to Rizzo and Baez (his with 2 strikes), but it sure appeared he threw his 94 exactly where he wanted vs Murphy!
I still can't believe Murphy was able to square up that eye-level (or higher) FB! Man, what a hitter that guys is!! Rizzo and Baez aren't bad either.
And Murphy's HR was the key one: Nola was REALLY cruising at the top of his game before the Murphy bomb!
Shows how imperfect WAR is that Cain is the leader and Yelich is well below Cain in WAR. That seems rather ridiculous to me!
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Chicago Cubs @Cubs 37s37 seconds ago
The #Cubs today activated RHP Tyler Chatwood and LHP Brian Duensing off of the 10-day DL.
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Jon Morosi
Verified account
@jonmorosi
18 mins18 minutes ago
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Javier Baez (@javy23baez) is the first player in @MLB history to have a 30 HR/100 RBI season while playing 30+ games at both second base *and* shortstop. @MLBNetwork @Cubs
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If the balloting were held today, how strong would Baez' case for MVP be?
Here are the WAR figures for all position and and then for all players, position players and pitchers, for the NL before today's game, and today's HR:
WAR Position Players
1. Cain • MIL 5.9
2. Carpenter • STL 5.5
3. Baez • CHC 5.4
4. Freeman • ATL 5.2
5. Goldschmidt • ARI 5.1
6. Yelich • MIL 5.0
7. Arenado • COL 5.0
8. Suarez • CIN 4.3
9. Story • COL 4.3
10. Bader • STL 4.0
Wins Above Replacement--all
1. Nola • PHI 9.0
2. Scherzer • WSN 8.8
3. deGrom • NYM 8.1
4. Freeland • COL 6.6
5. Cain • MIL 5.9
6. Carpenter • STL 5.5
7. Baez • CHC 5.4
8. Freeman • ATL 5.2
9. Goldschmidt • ARI 5.1
10. Yelich • MIL
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Was the bullpen so short that they needed to DL Heyward the day before the rosters expand? Seems weird to lock him in to missing 10 games just so they can have a 9th reliever for a day.
Is it possible that they put him on the DL because he was, you know, injured?
Is it possible the move was a result of believing he needed to be out for ten days and that it had nothing to do with roster gamesmanship?
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At some point I suspect Smyly will get the call.
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You must not be aware how barren Iowa is.
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I have to imagine quite a few more pitchers are coming.
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The #Cubs today announced the following roster moves:
INFs Kris Bryant & Addison Russell activated from 10-day DL
RHP James Norwood recalled from @IowaCubs
OF Terrance Gore and C Taylor Davis selected from Triple-A
RHP Luke Farrell & LHP Rob Zastryzny designated for assignment https://t.co/oIlJS7EKY0
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As of tonight, the top 3 records in the NL are all in the Central division.
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Was the bullpen so short that they needed to DL Heyward the day before the rosters expand? Seems weird to lock him in to missing 10 games just so they can have a 9th reliever for a day.
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Bryant and Russell back tomorrow. Obviously the Cubs have plenty of lineup options from the right side, but without Heyward they look pretty weak from the left - Almora starting tonight is evidence of that. May see more of Russell at SS, Baez at 3B and Bryant in the OF.
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Chicago Cubs @Cubs 2m2 minutes ago
The #Cubs today placed OF Jason Heyward on the 10-day DL with right hamstring tightness and recalled RHP Dillon Maples from @IowaCubs.
The Cubs were waiting to see if tonight's game would be rained out before making this decision.
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Minor league deal for Garcia.
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Feinsand says the Cubs are likely to sign Jaime Garcia.
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St Louis is up against Bailey tonight so Cubs will need to win to keep their lead.
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....If it is withdrawn he can not be waived again by that team for 30 days.
Perfect! That's the info I wanted. So, that's a pretty limited opportunity.
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Craig, I believe you can still get someone off waivers in September, but past the Aug 31 deadline, there are a lot of hoops and conditions to get someone on your post season roster. It's almost impossible.
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Waivers question:
Hypothetical Harvey: Suppose Reds exposed him; and somebody (hypothesize Milwaukee) claimed; no deal completed.
Q's:
1. How long does it take to place a guy on waivers placement-claim/not-claim-trade-or-not process?
2. Are there limits on how often a guy can be placed, and then replaced on waviers?
2. For example, could the reds waive Aug 1; repeat on Aug 5; repeat on Aug 9, 13, 17, 21, 25, etc.? Or could they do it every day, or once a week, or what?
4. Or is there some limit where you can't place a guy on waivers more than once or twice a season?
5. Or, you can't re-waive a guy for at least two weeks, or something?
As I read ArizonaPhil's site:
The current waiver period is August 1 through November. 10. Clubs have about 48 hours to make a claim against a waived person, at which time the claim is awarded to the team in the league with the worst record. The team waiving the player has 48 and one half hours to decide to work out a trade with the claiming team or to withdraw the waiver. If it is withdrawn he can not be waived again by that team for 30 days.
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Waivers question:
Hypothetical Harvey: Suppose Reds exposed him; and somebody (hypothesize Milwaukee) claimed; no deal completed.
Q's:
1. How long does it take to place a guy on waivers placement-claim/not-claim-trade-or-not process?
2. Are there limits on how often a guy can be placed, and then replaced on waviers?
2. For example, could the reds waive Aug 1; repeat on Aug 5; repeat on Aug 9, 13, 17, 21, 25, etc.? Or could they do it every day, or once a week, or what?
4. Or is there some limit where you can't place a guy on waivers more than once or twice a season?
5. Or, you can't re-waive a guy for at least two weeks, or something?
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Yeah, Deshaies mentioned that "slider" a number of times in the early going last night. I can see the value. Having the "feel" is probably a challenge.
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Interesting piece on Mike Montgomery from Sharma.
https://theathletic.com/497021/2018/08/30/mike-montgomery-found-a-new-pitch-over-the-past-month-and-now-hes-ready-for-october/?source=dailyemail
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Sahadev Sharma @sahadevsharma
Cubs acquire catcher Bobby Wilson from Twins for Chris Gimenez. Cory Mazzoni DFA'd to make room on the 40-man roster. Wilson was placed on the 10-day DL on Aug 24.
I wanted them to get a new backup catcher before tomorrow, but Wilson doesn't really make the team any better.
he's no Yellich
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Cubs Nation suggesting Bryant left the AAA game after 3 innings to begin his travel to join the Cubs.
The expectation is that he will be available to the Cubs on Saturday!
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Wasn't Smyly supposed to pitch an inning for Iowa today? He didn't.
1 IP for South Bend, struck out the side.
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It takes something special to be as bit a hitter as Wilson has been over as many career ABs as he's had. But he's a good framer...
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Wasn't Smyly supposed to pitch an inning for Iowa today? He didn't.
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Sahadev Sharma @sahadevsharma
Cubs acquire catcher Bobby Wilson from Twins for Chris Gimenez. Cory Mazzoni DFA'd to make room on the 40-man roster. Wilson was placed on the 10-day DL on Aug 24.
I wanted them to get a new backup catcher before tomorrow, but Wilson doesn't really make the team any better.
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The Cubs not only have a tough 11 game road trip after playing 9 straight games and 3 cities in three nights, but they get Foltynewicz tonight, Nola, who was moved up to start Sunday and most likely Strasburg and Sherzer in Washington. If they somehow emerge from this stretch still up by a couple games in the division you have to like their chances. Unless the Cardinals continue to play .800 baseball the rest of the way.
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Mills is already leaving the roster today to make room for Montgomery.
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I nominate Alec Mills to be the player who leaves the roster when Kris Bryant returns for the obvious reason that Mills won't be available for a few days and the rosters expand on Saturday.
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Mills did not pitch that badly yesterday. I'd say he's earned another start if the Cubs choose to go with a 6-man rotation.
Agree. He gave up the HR, but that after the ump had given him no break on maybe some close-to-the-edge pitches. And after a couple of groundballs that happened to go through for hits. Two easy groundouts versus two groundball singles, not sure any real difference in the pitching ability.
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I hope the Cubs are very cautious about relying too heavily on Bote in the future. ...
He seems like a smart, all-in player who I think might be OK long-term. But, perhaps as a utility player as he's been used, rather than as a primary every-day guy.
From what I've seen, I wonder whether he might not be a guy who gets "scouted", and if it won't get a lot harder for him when the "book" is out.
I can imagine he might have something of a Schwarber/Happ experience and profile:
1. started in great and with great power as rookie.
2. Patient at the plate.
3. High effort, high-will players.
4. But after a while might settle in like those guys as .230's hitters with walks, power, and lots of K's, but low-average?
5. Like with Happ and Schwarber, I'm kinda nervous that the "book" will get out that they can't hit velocity above mid-thigh.
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Could hear fans yelling after Bote failed to snag a dying quail in short left - screaming something like "Javy would have gotten that!"
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Mills did not pitch that badly yesterday. I'd say he's earned another start if the Cubs choose to go with a 6-man rotation.
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Did Alec Mills pitch his way off the 6 man rotation with his performance yesterday?
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IowaCubsGameDay @IowaCubsGameDay
Iowa goes for the sweep today at 12:08! Kris Bryant bats leadoff as the left fielder.
Will this be KB's last rehab game? Or to put it another way, will the Cubs activate him on Friday which would mean somebody would have to leave the 25-man roster for one day? I'm guessing Alec Mills won't be needed for a few days.
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I hope the Cubs are very cautious about relying too heavily on Bote in the future. He is a nice piece having a nice run but his minor league career doesn't suggest he will be this good going forward and even now he has been pretty mediocre to bad the last few weeks despite hitting a dramatic homer to win another game. Since 7/19 his BA has dipped from .290 to .267. He has gone 5-31 since then striking out in a third of those at bats. I'm not saying that this is who we can expect him to be as he is clearly slumping right now, but other than last year he has been an average at best player most of his minor league career.
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Probably a more important question is whether he could handle 2B long-term.
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Every "X" in the calendar without the Cards or Brewers getting closer is a win. It'd have been nice to sweep the Mets, but you lost a game with Mills pitching - not the end of the world.
How did Bote look at SS?
I didn't see much, but I thought he looked pretty bad. Like his range would be about 60% of Russell.
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Magic number dropped again. It is now at 26 with the Cardinals loss.
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Every "X" in the calendar without the Cards or Brewers getting closer is a win. It'd have been nice to sweep the Mets, but you lost a game with Mills pitching - not the end of the world.
How did Bote look at SS?
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As JR says, if they claim him and Washington won't make a deal, they just can stick them with his contract. However, I think it would have been a worthwhile price for either team to pay.
Things become much less worthwhile when you simply lack the money for them. It may well be that neither team had any extra budget room.
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Good read, but what I'd really like to know is how the Cardinals and Brewers didn't manage to keep the Cubs from getting him. Couldn't they have blocked it by claiming him and then failing to make a deal? Maybe it's more complicated than that?
As JR says, if they claim him and Washington won't make a deal, they just can stick them with his contract. However, I think it would have been a worthwhile price for either team to pay.
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I doubt the Cards or Brewers wanted to risk the $5 million hit if the Nats just let him go. That's probably the biggest reason for them.
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Info on how Daniel Murphy came to the Cubs
Good read, but what I'd really like to know is how the Cardinals and Brewers didn't manage to keep the Cubs from getting him. Couldn't they have blocked it by claiming him and then failing to make a deal? Maybe it's more complicated than that?
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https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cubs-payroll-set-to-soar-with-potential-tv-deal/
That is very interesting, but I wish he had included information on the salary cap/Luxury tax, and how it affects the Dodgers, Yankees and Red Sox, and how it could affect the Cubs.
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https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cubs-payroll-set-to-soar-with-potential-tv-deal/
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Info on how Daniel Murphy came to the Cubs
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24508920/mlb-how-did-hitter-chicago-cubs-needed-land-their-laps
That was really interesting. I've sometimes wondered how some of these waiver deals work out. Thanks for posting, Bennett.
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Info on how Daniel Murphy came to the Cubs
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24508920/mlb-how-did-hitter-chicago-cubs-needed-land-their-laps
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Certainly not until his contract runs out at the end of next year.
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There's no way Maddon's job is in jeopardy at this point.
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Joe Maddon's response to the Nightengale column
Joe Maddon responded to a national story in the USA Today regarding "whispers" his job could be in jeopardy without success in the playoffs. Next season is the final year of his contract: “It’s very uninteresting to me. I’m under contract. I’m very happy with what I’m doing. When the time is appropriate I’m sure we’ll discuss it further...When people (media) show up sporadically, they may get a different take on things. You guys are here all the time, you know what’s going on so therein lies the difference.”
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The only place where I can see any legitimate criticism of the coaching changes is with Hickey. And it might even be premature to make a judgment on that.
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I have always gotten the impression that everyone (outside of maybe a few pitchers) was ready to move on from Bosio. Given how things went in Detroit, I don't think there would be any heat on Maddon for that one.
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I don't see why Maddon would have needed to scapegoat anybody. The team had an excellent season in 2017.
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Of course you can interpret events as you see them. To me it seems pretty clear-cut that’s what happened.
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it's pretty clear he scapegoated his coaches for the Cubs' issues last season
This is not at all clear to me.
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The only real danger to Maddon, as I see it, is that it's pretty clear he scapegoated his coaches for the Cubs' issues last season, and got them replaced with his guys. So whatever goes wrong now, he pretty much has to own it.
In real news, Montgomery is apparently OK and coming back this week. That's potentially huge.
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Maddon has been fired. Details at 10:00
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Except for maybe Jim Bowden, Nightengale is the worst of the major national reporters. No reason to take that seriously at all.
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Note: Nightengale doesn't (or can't) bother to provide a source for these "whispers" so I'll call them alternative facts.
The rest of the column talks mostly about managerial salaries.
CHICAGO — Joe Maddon helped lead the Chicago Cubs to the Holy Grail of sports, with a consistent level of success they haven’t seen in a century, but there are whispers his job could be in jeopardy if they don’t play deep into October.
It's been a while since I've seen a site with so many obnoxious ads
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2018/08/27/baseball-managers-salaries-joe-maddon-dave-roberts-aj-hinch/1102815002/
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We often are aware of times the offense can't score, or gets stuck. But man, I look at some of the other lineups, and it's striking how bad they are.
The Cubs offense isn't good all the time; but when things are going well, it's a reminder of how difficult it is for some teams **all** the time, not just some of the time.
Mets, it's like they don't have *anybody* who's actually very good or very scary. Conforto killed one, and Lester nibbled around him very carefully; but the guy is hitting .230. Reds, without Votto they had Gennett and Suarez, but a lot of vulnerable guys. Scoring runs or even threatening to do so is really hard for so many teams.
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With the recent HR output, the Cubs have moved up into 9th place in the NL in HR's. They've now moved up into 20th place in mlb.
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Yeah, he's been way, way better than expected. The peripherals back it up, but the career track record doesn't - gotta think a regression is coming sooner or later. He wasn't a bad pitcher before, but nowhere close to this good.
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The Cubs wound up using relievers Pedro Strop, Justin Wilson and Jesse Chavez in the ninth, with Chavez stranding the bases loaded and earning his second save.
"Chavez just knows what he's doing," Maddon said.
Since coming to the Cubs:
Innings - 21
ERA - 1.29
K - 25
BB - 2
WHIP - 0.76
I'd be a little more effusive than Joe Maddon when talking about Jesse Chavez.
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Cubs want a Yankees-like media network:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-cubs-tv-network-possible-20180113-story.html
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Tony Rizzo is the NL player of the week.
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Deeg, your LH and RH lineups certainly look good to me (particularly with Bryant back in there facing both!)
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100% starters vs. righties: Murphy, Zobrist, Rizzo, Contreras, Baez, Heyward, Schwarber, Bryant
100% starters vs. lefties: Bryant, Baez, Almora, Bote, Rizzo, Contreras
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Zobrist actually has hit slightly better as a RH hitter over his career, and this was true as recently as 2016 (though not since). I would write off last season due to his injury, but he has been only mediocre as a RH hitter this season. He should start regularly vs. RHP and only sporadically vs. LHP.
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Kyle needs to be this good if we’re going to have a shot in the postseason, probably.
Joe is certainly going to have some interesting decisions when Bryant comes back. I wonder if maybe Heyward, Murphy and Schwarber are all on the bench vs. lefties - neither Happ or Zobrist is good from the right side but Bote gives you a good option, and he’s not going to play much vs. righties.
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Great to see Hendricks pitch real well again on Sunday vs Reds.
Quite a contrast watching Homer Bailey's plus velocity get rocked again, while Hendricks basically sits in the mid-80s and just carves 'em up, and pile up the innings as he has the past 3+ years.
It's almost amazing watching him give up 6-10 mph to opposing starters and, then, completely outpitch them as he so often has during the Cubs' phenomenal stretch of the past going on 4 years.
Who knows what Hendricks will do from here on, but that's rather true with about any MLB pitcher.
However, when he has his release point and timing, what Kyle does prove is this: tho' having a mid-90s FB is great, plus command, late movement and the ability to change speeds from the same arm slot are WAY more important than velocity at the MLB level!
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The more you know.
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https://www.dukehealth.org/blog/myth-or-fact-people-light-eyes-are-more-sensitive-sunlight
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After today's game the Cubs get Syndegaard and Degrom then Atlanta on Thursday then Philly on the weekend but miss Nola and they have really cratered of late. Then Milwaukee Washington and Milwaukee again. All this without a day off until the last Milwaukee series. If the Cubs can survive this stretch with they're division lead intact the last 16 games should be a lot easier with Az and Stl the only two good teams they'll face.
Alec Mills will go up against Jason Vargas on Wednesday.
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I wonder - could the Cubs "decline", make the Rangers pay the $6 million, and then, say, give Hamels a 1 year/$15 million contract? Hamels comes out a mil ahead and the Cubs have $5 million less of a cap hit.
Of course the problem would be that as soon as the Cubs decline the option, Hamels is a free agent and the Cubs would have to compete with offers from any other team interested in Hamels.
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After today's game the Cubs get Syndegaard and Degrom then Atlanta on Thursday then Philly on the weekend but miss Nola and they have really cratered of late. Then Milwaukee Washington and Milwaukee again. All this without a day off until the last Milwaukee series. If the Cubs can survive this stretch with they're division lead intact the last 16 games should be a lot easier with Az and Stl the only two good teams they'll face.
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I'm sure the scientific validity of that is right in line with Murphy's past philosophical pronouncements.
Guess he’s been right all along. It’s pretty common knowledge that lighter eyes are more sensitive to sunlight. Lighter eyes have less melanin which protects from the sun.
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Don’t underestimate the likelihood that the Cubs front office brought that to Murphy’s attention. Pretty sure I brought up the Theocracy’s current obsession with vision analysis about a month ago.
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Murphy has better career splits in day games, but that hasn't been true over the past few years.
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I'm sure the scientific validity of that is right in line with Murphy's past philosophical pronouncements.
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From Bruce Miles - something new for the baseball analysts to mull over
"I feel like days games, if I'm able to get this old body going, I feel like I see the ball better during the day," he said. "I don't know, I've seen something before that people who have darker eyes happen to see the ball better in the day, and (players with) lighter eyes, they struggle a little bit. I'm pretty sure my eyes are pretty dark."
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I think I suggested that when we got him and Jeff opined that we'd probably hear from the Commissioner's office...and the Rangers.
That's possible for sure... But it would be hard to prove. The Cubs say "We like Cole but not at this price", Cole says "Any team is free to call", and the deal is signed.
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I think I suggested that when we got him and Jeff opined that we'd probably hear from the Commissioner's office...and the Rangers.
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I don’t see why they couldn’t. If Hamels does that or his option is picked up I wonder what the cost would be to get somebody like the Tigers to take the 2 years on left on Charwood’s deal would be.
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Gordo raises kind of an interesting point on Hamels:
Theoretically, the Cubs could allow the Rangers to pay the buyout and then work out a free agent deal with Hamels – say, two years, $30 million, which would reduce the luxury-tax-related impact to $15 million.
I wonder - could the Cubs "decline", make the Rangers pay the $6 million, and then, say, give Hamels a 1 year/$15 million contract? Hamels comes out a mil ahead and the Cubs have $5 million less of a cap hit.
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Bryant implementing a 2-handed finish to reduce strain on the shoulder. My question is does it heal without surgery?
https://twitter.com/CarrieMuskat/status/1033373614635184129
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The Quintana trade was two weeks earlier -- July 13th. Verlander was at the deadline.
Verlander was traded at the August 31st deadline after clearing waivers, but no team wanted to get stuck with the entire contract.
He also had 7.2 WAR in 2016 and ended up with 4.7 WAR before the trade.
I get that being wrong makes you desperate to argue no one else could have been right. Doesn't make it true, though.
Verlander's 1st half stats are exactly what he posted prior to the Quintana trade, 18 GS, 104.2 IP, 108H, 8.43 K/9, 4.39 BB/9, 4.73 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 5.03 xFIP.
After the Qunitana trade and before he was traded we went 10 GS, 67.1 IP, 2.41 ERA, 10.43 K/9, 2.14 BB/9, 2.41 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 3.45 xFIP.
Where do you think most of the WAR was obtained?
Trading for Verlander over Quintana on July 13th only makes sense if you have knowledge of what happened after July 13th. If you can honestly make a compelling argument that 1st half Verlander and his contract was a better acquisition than Quintana his control at $34+ million through 2020 was better I'd love to hear it. But you need to use his stats up July 13, not after.
After Verlander turned it around he was somebody I wanted the Cubs to target. His 1st half numbers look at lot like Yu Davish's numbers with Cubs with less strike outs, so maybe there is still hope for Darvish. I'd still do the Quintana trade, but having Eloy and Cease could have led to a lot pitcher at this deadline, but again that is hindsight helped.
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I still like it.
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Interesting revisionist discussions of Verlander.
Despite the suggestion that Verlander might not have performed well with anyone other than the Astros, in 2018 he has a home ERA of 3.13 in Houston and 2.09 on the road. OPS+ allowed in 2018 of 80 at home and 61 on the road. Last year, after the trade he only pitched in five games for the Astros, three on the road allowing 3 earned runs in 20 innings, and two games at home allowing one earned run in 14 innings.
The Astros gave up Cameron Daz, a disappointing 20 year old CF 2015 first round draft pick (37th overall) https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=camero000daz Franklin Perez, a 19 year old international signing starting pitcher who was at AA with a 3.09 ERA in 30 innings https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=perez-019fra and Jake Rogers, a 22 year old former 3rd round draft pick catcher who had 18 HR and a .261 BA in about 500 PA between low and high A teams in 2017. Not bums, but no shining lights there, and a decent chance that none of them will ever play a single game in the majors.
The Quintana trade was two weeks earlier -- July 13th. Verlander was at the deadline.
In Cease and Jiminez the Cubs gave up two absolute high level prospects for Quintana, and two more throw ins. (Matt Rose was a former 11th round draft pick OF/1B who has a minor league career BA of .227 with an OPS of .703 in more than 1400 AB https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=rose--003mat and Bryant Fleet, a 24 year old international signing utility player then in high A ball and now with a .256 career BA and a .695 OPS after just short of 2200 career minor league AB http://bbf.createaforum.com/general-discussion/cubs-in-'18/msg354084/#new ) Cease and Jimenez this year have done nothing to reduce their value or expectations.
Jimenez was ranked the 17th best prospect preseason last year, the 4th best preseason this year, and folks are now clamoring for the Sox to call him up after hitting .360 with an an ops above 1.0 and a K rate below 15% in AAA.
This seems to be about the middle of the Verlander discussion last year. I was not a big fan of going after him, but not strongly opposed. Reb seemed to be a fan, Craig seemed to lean against, CUBluejays supported, brjones strongly opposed, davep seemed to lean strongly against, deeg wanted the Cubs to stongly go after Darvish in the off season, Ron wanted him (if the prospect price was not too high), Dusty (not surprisingly) just wanted to see Verlander's wife in crowd cutaways during games.... then when the actual trade deadline reports were that the Tigers wanted Baez or Happ for Verlander, support for the move seemed to evaporate, though Robb and deeg still supported going after him.
The discussion of the Quintana trade is here.http://bbf.createaforum.com/archives/cubs-in-'17-reigning-champions-edition/2700/ Dusty, tico, playtwo and CUBluejays liked it. Most of the rest of us were quite unhappy with it.
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He also had 7.2 WAR in 2016 and ended up with 4.7 WAR before the trade.
I get that being wrong makes you desperate to argue no one else could have been right. Doesn't make it true, though.
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Verlander in the first half
8.43 K/9, 4.39 BB/9, 4.29 FIP, 5.03 xFIP, 104.2 IP, 108 H, wOBA .327.
He was bad in the first half and didn’t turn it around untillate July/August. The fastball velocity was the only encouraging thing about him.
I liked Verlander as a trade target, but at the time of the Quintana trade Verlander was a better target only in retrospect.
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I'll admit that I wasn't that interested in getting Verlander. He has exceeded any reasonable expectations with Houston. Right now, the Astros have pitching staff magic, there's no chance Verlander would've pitched this well anywhere else.
The idea that Verlander would've been a better acquisition at the time than Quintana is ludicrous. Quintana was 28 years old, and by any measure had been one of the top pitchers in baseball over the past 5 years. Verlander was 34 years old, having a mediocre year, and looked like he was in decline.
"A better acquisition" reflects not just the player, but the cost. Verlander was averaging 95 at Detroit last season, K-ing better than a man per inning and allowed 153 hits in 172 IP. There were a lot of reasons to think in a contender situation, he still had it to be a very good pitcher indeed. This is not hindsight - it's what myself and some others were saying at the time. And it's really not ludicrous to have suggested that he could be better than Quintana for the next couple of years, irrespective of the prospect cost, considering that Quintana isn't a TORP in the first place. And there's certainly no reason to think he's only succeeding now because he's in Houston - he's at 95.2 on the fastball and throwing as well as he has in his entire career - that suggestion is what's ludicrous.
There was some talk of Verlander to the Cubs even before Theo jumped the queue with the Quintana deal, though the bulk of it came after the deadline. Obviously if the pro-Verlander voices had suspected Theo would be willing to give up what he did for a pitcher like Quintana, the argument for Verlander would have been an even more compelling one.
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I'll admit that I wasn't that interested in getting Verlander. He has exceeded any reasonable expectations with Houston. Right now, the Astros have pitching staff magic, there's no chance Verlander would've pitched this well anywhere else.
The idea that Verlander would've been a better acquisition at the time than Quintana is ludicrous. Quintana was 28 years old, and by any measure had been one of the top pitchers in baseball over the past 5 years. Verlander was 34 years old, having a mediocre year, and looked like he was in decline.
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Bullshi t. Plenty of people on this board were arguing for a Verlander acquisition (including me). You can look it up.
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I wouldn't have gone blastic. I remember hoping for Verlander.
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Think that entirely would've depended on the price.
No assurances Verlander is this dominant somewhere other than Houston anyway.
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Verlander has a 4.73 ERA in the first half and was owed $60+ million. People would have gone blastic on this board.
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Oh, yeah - that was well-documented at the time. Verlander definitely wanted to come to Chicago, and last year certainly would have played out differently had we traded for him instead of Houston. In a dream world, we'd have done so before the deadline and never made the Quintana trade.
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Wow - Hamels averaged 93.9 on the 4-seam fastball yesterday.
Deeg - you referred to Hamels as our Verlander recently, I think. It's early yet, but right now that doesn't seem an outrageous statement. It also led me to go see what the Astros gave up to get him (given how little the Cubs did for Hamels). I was surprised to read an article that said Verlander had been holding out in approving the trade because the Cubs were his first choice and he was hoping a deal would be made with them. I don't fault the Cubs for being unwilling to give up whatever was being demanded, but my goodness, imagine him in a Cubs uniform.
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If Montgomery can't go, Mills has to be the guy for at least one more start - 23 games in 23 days.
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I'd anticipated Alec Mills returning to Iowa in favor of a reliever. It looks like that is now on hold.
Mills struck out eight while filling in for Mike Montgomery, who is on the disabled list with left shoulder inflammation. Montgomery threw a bullpen session before the win and is scheduled for another one on Sunday.
"We'll wait 'til Sunday to figure out what we want to do next," manager Joe Maddon said. "But Alec really permitted us to think different thoughts."
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Wow - Hamels averaged 93.9 on the 4-seam fastball yesterday.
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Apologies to Ron! But just for fun, I looked at the standings to check on the WildCard status! (You know in the hypothetical that the Cardinals don't lose any more games and win the division.)
So, in the ***hypothetical*** that the red-hot Cardinals were to win the division, what would be the situation for the Cubs to hang in for the wildcard?
Not counting Cardinals, Cubs lead is:
3.5 Rockies
4 Brewers
5 Philly
7.5 Dodgers
That's pretty solid.
The Cardinals still have series with Rockies, Brewers, Dodgers and Braves, as well as Cubs, so if they are winning all of their games, some of the wildcard chasers are going to lose some. :):) .
Would be nicer, of course, if the Rockies won 2 or 3 this weekend.
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Hilarious: https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/08/24/omg-could-javy-baez-tag-out-javy-baez-video/
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As predicted
Carrie Muskat @CarrieMuskat 14m14 minutes ago
#Cubs roster move: Mills called up from Iowa and Maples sent back
If I'm not mistaken, Maples still earns the MLB minimum salary for the entire month of August.
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In only 5 starts and 34 IP, Hamels is now second among Cubs starters in fWAR:
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=10&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=17&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
If Hendricks falters at all, there's a chance Hamels could end up being the Cubs' most valuable starting pitcher this year in only 10-11 starts.
Stats aside, this is already true.
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In only 5 starts and 34 IP, Hamels is now second among Cubs starters in fWAR:
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=10&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=17&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
If Hendricks falters at all, there's a chance Hamels could end up being the Cubs' most valuable starting pitcher this year in only 10-11 starts.
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What did he say that makes him homophobic?
Possibly the fact that he has said he doesn't like gays or the "gay lifestyle," combined with the fact that there is no "gay lifestyle."
Being opposed to the "gay lifestyle" and not being homophobic is about like a white person being opposed to the "black lifestyle" and not being racist. There is no "black lifestyle." There is no "gay lifestyle." There is merely thinly veiled bigotry.
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Keith Law with the pun of the day after Chatwood's "hip injury."
keithlaw @keithlaw
heard the Cubs put Chatwood on the DL with WHIP inflammation
Reminds me of Gerald Ford's WIN buttons (Whip Inflation Now).
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Keith Law with the pun of the day after Chatwood's "hip injury."
keithlaw @keithlaw
heard the Cubs put Chatwood on the DL with WHIP inflammation
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What did he say that makes him homophobic?
Replying in the Politics and Religion topic, because goblue's GIF is accurate and no one wants to read the follow-up.
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(https://media.giphy.com/media/srTYyZ1BjBtGU/giphy.gif)
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What did he say that makes him homophobic?
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Murphy was asked about his checkered history with homophobia at his first Wrigley press conference. It was a pretty evasive answer - mostly he just talked about Billy Bean, as usual. But he does at least seem to have progressed a little, to his credit.
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Im married.
I dont have to do that anymore.
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<Deeg wants Dusty to do what to himself?>
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On the injury front, here is Darvish's full account of his injury situation, so the folks saying he's faking it can go fuck themselves with it.
https://twitter.com/mikaotx/status/1032680397350551554/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1032680397350551554&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bleachernation.com%2F2018%2F08%2F23%2Fyu-darvish-reveals-in-detail-what-happened-during-his-rehab-process%2F
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Is that the same as the directional atrebious tendon? That's bad.
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His control flexor is torn.
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Chatwood to the DL.
With what supposed injury?
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 9m9 minutes ago
Dillon Maples recalled
Maples probably goes back to Iowa to make room for Alec Mills on Friday.
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Chatwood to the DL.
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 7s7 seconds ago
Alec Mills to start Friday
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Marrow is more just checking again to make sure nothing is wrong vs a setback from what I've seen.
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The Cubs may have a deal with another team that, in return, they'll pass on a player the other team is interested in.
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Thanks, Jeff. That seems like a relatively small price to pay for a team that's on the playoff bubble.
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I'm not sure I understand how the Cubs were able to get Murphy. It seems like a number of contending teams would have had interest in him and would have had the ability to offer more than what the Nats received. Explanation?
A claiming team would have been on the hook for $4 million. Some teams are poor and others have luxury tax concerns.
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Aidan Jackson-Evans
Most pickoff attempts by an #MLB catcher, 2018:
73 = Willson Contreras
28 = Martín Maldonado
23 = Manny Piña
#Cubs' Contreras has attempted more than 2.5 times as many pickoffs as any other catcher in the majors this season.
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Conspiracy
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I'm not sure I understand how the Cubs were able to get Murphy. It seems like a number of contending teams would have had interest in him and would have had the ability to offer more than what the Nats received. Explanation?
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Carrie Muskat @CarrieMuskat 19s19 seconds ago
For #Cubs numbers geeks, Daniel Murphy will wear No. 3
Thank. God.
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But looks like a setback for Morrow - leaving the team to head back to Chicago for "more tests". Not a great FA crop for Theo so far.
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 2m2 minutes ago
Bryant “close” to starting rehab assignment, Maddon said. looked very good during pregame work.
That's great news
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 2m2 minutes ago
Bryant “close” to starting rehab assignment, Maddon said. looked very good during pregame work.
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Sahadev Sharma
Verified account
@sahadevsharma
11s12 seconds ago
More
Addison Russell heads to the DL with a sprained left middle finger. Right shoulder is barking too, but the finger is the official reason he's shelved for now. Daniel Murphy active and leading off.
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The Cubs are in perfectly fine shape. The players are well rested due to Joe's approach to the lineup and late season burn out shouldn't be an issue even with so few days off. The offense seems sure to heat up substantially and the starting pitching appears to be stabilizing. The bullpen should continue to be solid. The Cards and/or Brewers could get stay/get hot, but we have enough games against them to determine our own fate. Let's get it on.
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Last Cub to wear #3 - David Ross
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I wonder if Kintzler will give his #20 up for Murphy when he...
Oh, no...
https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/8314/
Please tell me this is a typo and Murphy isn't really number 80.
(It's not the year he was born -- that's '85 -- so what could this number mean?)
Carrie Muskat @CarrieMuskat 19s19 seconds ago
For #Cubs numbers geeks, Daniel Murphy will wear No. 3
No word on the corresponding roster move.
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If we make the playoffs,
pfft!
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If we make the playoffs, have to assume Murphy and Zobrist play every day vs. righties. That probably means no Russell, and two OF spots decided between Heyward, Schwarber, and Happ. Against lefties Almora for Schwarber I suppose, and maybe Russell for either Z or Murphy. Maybe you get Happ in there too, really stack the lineup and hope for the best - though he, Murphy and Zobrist have all been pretty bad vs. lefties this year.
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Yeah, the Russell DL move is obvious. I was thinking after that but forgot about expanding rosters.
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I wonder if Kintzler will give his #20 up for Murphy when he...
Oh, no...
https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/8314/
Please tell me this is a typo and Murphy isn't really number 80.
(It's not the year he was born -- that's '85 -- so what could this number mean?)
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I think the move has to be to put Russell on the DL for the rest of the month. He has been playing through an injury for a while and has been really bad while doing it. We're only 10 days from rosters expanding, so the roster crunch is gone when he comes back. From what I've seen of Bote's defense, I'm comfortable with him as emergency shortstop for 10 days.
In addition to his now inflamed shoulder, Russell has been battling a sore knuckle.
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I think the move has to be to put Russell on the DL for the rest of the month. He has been playing through an injury for a while and has been really bad while doing it. We're only 10 days from rosters expanding, so the roster crunch is gone when he comes back. From what I've seen of Bote's defense, I'm comfortable with him as emergency shortstop for 10 days.
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Why? He's a switch-hitter who can play multiple positions. Even with the roster as it is now there's an argument he should be one of the regulars.
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I wonder if Happ could get optioned at some point.
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Murphy, wow... Undeniably, can hit - average, power. Just as undeniably a terrible defender since the surgery, and was bad before it.
What was already going to be some difficult decision-making for Maddon just got a lot harder. Presumably this means Happ is a pinch-hitter now, and we won't see much of Bote and Almora except against lefties. For now maybe Russell goes on the DL or to the bench and Baez becomes the everyday SS at last. No dropoff defensively there, but from Baez to Murphy is a precipice.
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Gordon Wittenmyer @GDubCub 2m2 minutes ago
Theo on Darvish stress-reacton/bone bruise diagnosis: “We’re really disappointed. But at least we have some clarity and can move forward.” Said the upside is reconstructed UCL in elbow “looked really good and is in place and stable.” Darvish expected to be healthy for spring.
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Darvish out for the year with a stress reaction in his elbow.
Does that self-heal with rest? Or will the elbow get stressed again next year by the same forces once he starts pitching again?
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Also has a triceps strain.
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Darvish out for the year with a stress reaction in his elbow.
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Thanks for that link, Dusty. Guess it shows Murphy was rather old-fashioned in his views, but a good enough guy that he could open his heart at least some to others with different perspectives.
The article also shows how important Billy Bean is to MLB. It's certainly high time to accept that gay people are just people and to help promote inclusion within MLB.
At any rate, Cubs won't really need Murphy to lead others, but just fit in and HIT! Joe (and Rizz and others) will help him feel comfortable, get acclimated and fit in. He might provide a boost of energy and some pop that's exactly what the Cubs need right now...sure hope so!
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https://www.outsports.com/platform/amp/2018/3/6/17084216/billy-bean-daniel-murphy-mlb-gay-lifestyle?__twitter_impression=true
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He has never a great runner, but he had articular cartilage surgery in his knee. I'm seem to remember that they had to do microfracture surgery on it, which is tough to rehab. He has been hitting well since July, so he should help out on offense. On defense he's a downgrade at 2B. I wonder if they might try him at 3B depending on who is pitching because of his range.
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I had a feeling he was going to the cubs
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What is his injury history this year?
He looked really gimpy/slow when playing the Cubs. His running is probably going to be more on the Schwarber end of the spectrum, maybe even slower.
And his defensive range probably won't be good great.
But he's hitting .300, after .322 and .347 the past two seasons. The guy can hit, which we can use. Sure, we can put that negatively (he's "only" .300, so he's in decline from his .347 year.....!) But I think having a .300-hitter in the mix can help. Heh heh, maybe he'll also fit in with the Cubs because like all of them except Javy, his HR-power is also down, too.
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Jeff Blauser
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Who goes down to make room on the 25 man? LaStella?
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I think this is a great deal, at the very least unlikely to come back to bite us.
But I am old enough to remember a pitcher named Russ Meyer. His career started off with the Cubs, and naturally, they traded him away (sold him?) just in time for him to get fairly good. But most of all, he was known as a "Cub Killer", having an outstanding record against the Cubs. So they got him back in a trade, and he stunk up Wrigley field for most of one season before they let him go.
But he should go on a hot streak, he might be able to drag the rest of the Cubs offense with him, kind of like Cespedes did for the Mets a few years ago.
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Wondering if this is a platoon thing. Hard to keep Zobrist on the bench the way he's hitting.
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He missed the start of the season with a leg issue.
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What is his injury history this year?
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I like it. I'm probably not objective, though, because the only time I watch Murphy is against the Cubs!
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Mike Rizzo PC on MLB right now...
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That's why this is the best Cubs board around.
We knew this was going down last night.
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Good thinking, Chris! Maybe playing half his games at Wrigley will help with that!
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Now if Murphy just visualizes all opposing pitchers as Cubs pitchers.
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Acquiring Murphy provides at least 3 potential benefits:
1 - a very good DH vs AL teams (he likely won't be playing tonight, but maybe tomorrow night and certainly vs the White Sox in mid-September, when wins will seem even more critical)
2 - a very good guy to rotate in at 2b to give Russell's hand time to heal and give Joe more options, and, presumably, a PLUS pinch hitter in clutch situations (Joe will find a way to keep him happy)
3 - a guy who absolutely KILLS the Cubs, so we won't have to face him in critical situations the rest of the way coming to the plate for another team trying to put us away.
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This might be inconsequential small sample size stuff, but Murphy has a career 1.020 OPS in the postseason. We obviously got a big dose of that handed to us in 2015.
If anything, he’s been the type of guy who can hit the types of pitchers we’ll see in October, so hopefully we’ll see more of that.
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 2m2 minutes ago
No corresponding move announced yet. Cubs can wait until Murphy arrives. Addison Russell has been coping with a puffy knuckle on his left middle finger. Also a few players with minor league options.
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Murphy puts the 40-man roster back at 40.
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Who?
Defensive middle infielder for the Pelicans.
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I was hoping they gave up Darvish for him. :)
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Who?
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Jon Heyman @JonHeyman
prospect Andruw monasterio is going to nats for murphy
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This is big if true. I guess the front office sees the need for more offense.
Robert Murray @ByRobertMurray
#Cubs acquiring Daniel Murphy from the #Nationals, sources tell The Athletic.
I think it says more about Bryant and Russell health going forward than anything. I'd keep both of them in bubble wrap until just before the playoffs start.
Bringing in Murphy can certainly jump start a struggling offense in the second half.
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Jeff Passan @JeffPassan
Sources: Nationals fire sale is beginning. Multiple trades are being finalized.
Sounds like a big baseball news day.
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This is big if true. I guess the front office sees the need for more offense.
Robert Murray @ByRobertMurray
#Cubs acquiring Daniel Murphy from the #Nationals, sources tell The Athletic.
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Craig Mish @CraigMish
Source indicates the Chicago Cubs claimed Daniel Murphy from the Nationals. Working out a deal.
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....We all know that hitting is contagious and that losing a guy like Bryant from the offense has a ripple effect. It's appeared to me in recent games that the Cubs are pressing and that only exacerbates the problem....but it's usually what happens...lack of hitting is contagious, too....
Cubs composite offensive numbers are good (OBP, BA, slugging, runs). They are still 3rd in the league in runs. Being 3rd in runs with 2016 rotation (and 2018 pen) would be great. Their season-long leads in some of those areas has been dwindling lately, though, since recent games factor.
Blue and ben speak to two points. Blue's that hitting is inconsistent. Guys bounce hot-and-cold. Every team has off games. We remember all of our struggles, but there's little unique about that, every team goes through them. So, maybe we're due for some bounce-back good, and for the rest of the season the offense will score about as many or more runs than anybody else in the league, recent weeks notwithstanding? Slumps come and go, don't sweat it.
Ben's contagion point makes me more nervous, though. The seasonal numbers that look good are built in a past that has had some guys having some repeating and extended hot periods. But for the moment, I'm not sure there's anybody who's hot or carrying the team. Maybe Russell, Heyward, and Bote already had their fluke hot streaks, and Baez too, and there is no reason to expect those guys to get hot again?
So I'm a little nervous this might go like 2008 Cubs; a great seasonal offense then led the league by huge margin. But those seasonal numbers were built early, and by September Soto and Soriano and Theriot etc. had all cooled off; there wasn't anybody who felt dangerous going into October. Where they got easily swept out.
One of the issues with a low-HR machine is that it does kind of require a collective of hitters to score the OBP way. A fluke HR can occur at any moment, sometimes even with a guy on base. But when you need several guys to get hits, that's hard when you've got several guys in auto-out mode.
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They problem is our observation of the team and what is happening is subject to our own biases. I'm certainly subject to that and why I lean heavily on stats, because my memory will confirm my biases.
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My point was that when the lineup is manipulated as often as Joe is prone to do, it skews the results. Is our #8 hitter that weak or is something else at play? Is our #9 hitter that strong is or something else at play? It's called confirmation bias and it afflicts many in baseball who love the stats. It's what old timers like in the above articles are complaining about. We pick and choose stats that prove that 6 angels dance on the knob of a bat in order to deny that what we're observing is not actually happening.
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Acknowledging Yelich improves the team doesn’t mean we think pitching hasn’t been the primary problem
CBJ, most of the year we've had our 3 and 4 hitters leading off to try to get something going. That's okay, but it means guys who aren't true power guys are then hitting 3 and 4. Your example is lying with statistics. But I think goblue was saying that.
I never said Yelich wouldn't improve the team. He's great. I just don't think there is some huge gain to be made.
Cubs top 2 leading players at leadoff by PA
Almora 185 PA wRC+ 123
Zobrist 139 PA wRC+ 122
Rizzo, Bryant and Baez have a combined 39 games at leadoff and they were put at leadoff to try and get them going when they were struggling.
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Acknowledging Yelich improves the team doesn’t mean we think pitching hasn’t been the primary problem
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Offense is never consistent. The problem with this team has been run prevention. The 2016 gave up 556 runs, the 2018 Cubs have given up 499 already, or 4.05 runs/game.
The starting pitching is the problem with this team. On offense it has been the lack of HR, not strike outs or lack of getting on base that has been the problem.
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Yelich might have been a 1ish WAR improvement...but I think he would've been a 3-5 real life win improvement.
This offense is dysfunctional, and it has been for almost 2 full seasons now. I'm convinced that one very good player (like Yelich) contributes much more than a pretty good platoon like Almora/Happ, and it's something Fangraphs hasn't really figured out how to quantify yet. We'll see as metrics continue to evolve--in 5 years, I think we're going to look back at the 2017-18 Cubs as teams who placed too much emphasis on overall run scoring over being good on a day-to-day basis.
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Speculation that Cubs put in a waiver claim for Daniel Murphy. Wouldn’t be a surprise. Not confirmed yet.
Murphy's defensive metrics have been really, really bad for a while. Not sure if that kind of defensive hit is worth his bat in the lineup.
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Was more so about lineup construction and it’s advantages but you’re going to be you so have fun with that.
What big improvement does that give you? How does it effect Rizzo and Baez that they can't bump up to the leadoff spot when they are struggling? Who does Yelich replace? What would he have cost in a trade? How does a 1ish WAR improvement in the OF make a dramatic change to the offense?
Just going Yelich is big improvement is weak and both you and br are better than that.
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CBJ, most of the year we've had our 3 and 4 hitters leading off to try to get something going. That's okay, but it means guys who aren't true power guys are then hitting 3 and 4. Your example is lying with statistics. But I think goblue was saying that.
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Was more so about lineup construction and it’s advantages but you’re going to be you so have fun with that.
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Nobody said OF was the problem. Somebody said Yelich wouldn’t be much of an improvement over what they have. You can mix and match and prorate and ish as much as you’d like, but penciling in Yelich at leadoff every single day would be a big improvement.
Cubs leadoff hitters .374/.456/.831 wRC+ 123
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Speculation that Cubs put in a waiver claim for Daniel Murphy. Wouldn’t be a surprise. Not confirmed yet.
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Nobody said OF was the problem. Somebody said Yelich wouldn’t be much of an improvement over what they have. You can mix and match and prorate and ish as much as you’d like, but penciling in Yelich at leadoff every single day would be a big improvement.
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Yelich is close to twice that, a borderline MVP candidate, and is currently playing for one of the Cubs' top rivals. Without him, the Brewers would be buried. With him, the Cubs would lead the Cardinals by a couple more games.
Of course, with Chili Davis as the hitting coach, Yelich would've been encouraged to not take advantage of his more HR friendly ballpark in the most homer friendly era of MLB history. So maybe he wouldn't have helped that much.
The Brewers would be buried if the Cubs 5 starters to begin the year produced more than 2.7 fWAR. Hendricks is on pace for 2.3 fWAR. He's the only guy performing close to what I would have thought. Lester and Quintana are both going to be most likely under 1.5 fWAR on the season and the Cubs FA signings are going to negative. That is THE problem with this team. Current offensive slump excluded.
I think a bigger contributor than Davis is injuries to Bryant, Rizzo, Russell to the Cubs power slump. Contreras had a big drop in his ISO, but he's hitting less ground balls and more fly balls this year.
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uh yeah I’ll take Yelich over anything they have in the OF
Yelich is better than any of the Cubs OF's that isn't debatable. He's been worth 3.7 fWAR so far this year.
The Cubs OF (Prorated for Happ and Zobrist on innings)
Zobrist has been worth 1.5 fWAR
Schwarber 2.5 fWAR
Heywood 2.0 fWAR
Almora 1.4 fWAR
Happ 1.1 fWAR
LF for the Cubs has been over 3 fWAR
CF 2.5ish fWAR
RF 2.5-3 fWAR
OF production isn't the problem.
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4.) Yelich wouldn't be that big of an improvement over the Cubs OF. The have pretty much 2+ WAR at each OF position.
Yelich is close to twice that, a borderline MVP candidate, and is currently playing for one of the Cubs' top rivals. Without him, the Brewers would be buried. With him, the Cubs would lead the Cardinals by a couple more games.
Of course, with Chili Davis as the hitting coach, Yelich would've been encouraged to not take advantage of his more HR friendly ballpark in the most homer friendly era of MLB history. So maybe he wouldn't have helped that much.
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My favorite part of that was Leyland unable yet through a sentence without getting bleeped.
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Sharma's not the only one:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2791455-i-find-it-very-difficult-to-watch-why-mlb-greats-think-baseballs-in-trouble?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=editorial
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Those aren't dogs. They're his Twitter friends.
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uh yeah I’ll take Yelich over anything they have in the OF
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Why is it that every time Dusty comments on an Asian player dogs everywhere start barking madly?
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Very interesting article by Sharma, who is terrific! brjones, you and Chris have been lamenting the offense most all season and, since the break, if not before at times, you've been right (as Sharma points out).
I thought Cubs would be moving up the HR ranks with a bullet by now, but Craig's lack of power concerns have been validated.
We all know that hitting is contagious and that losing a guy like Bryant from the offense has a ripple effect. It's appeared to me in recent games that the Cubs are pressing and that only exacerbates the problem....but it's usually what happens...lack of hitting is contagious, too.
We need about 3 guys to get hot at once and guys like Contreras, Schwarber, Happ would really help, so we aren't overly reliant on Baez and Rizzo. I suspect Russell's hand issue will put him on the bench for a while when Bryant returns. He's contributing very, very little at the plate right now. Bote would be a better option, but he finally appears to be slumping, too.
There's little doubt that Cubs better fix this issue sooner than later or the lack of offense may take us right out of the playoff picture (if our starting pitching doesn't).
It's a real testimonial to the grit and resilience of our guys (as well as Joe and the FO) for finding a way to stay on top while facing such a tremendous set of vexing issues this season!
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1.) 7/10 top ten teams by wRC+ are AL teams. When comparing run distributions to teams with a DH vs a team that is running out pitchers with a .230 OPS isn't exactly fair.
2.) Look at the run distribution of the Dodgers the Cubs have 3 more shut outs and 5 more 1 run games. You can't convince me that is *statistically* significant in any way.
3.) The Cubs biggest issue on offense is the lack of HR. The rank 21st in MLB in HR. The 2017 Cubs had 11 players with an ISO above .150, with 7 above .200. The 2016 Cubs had 10 players with an ISO above .150 (not counting Arrieta). The 2018 Cubs have 2 players with an ISO above .200, and 9 above .150. That includes Zagunis and his 6 PA, Bote and his 109 PA.
4.) Yelich wouldn't be that big of an improvement over the Cubs OF. The have pretty much 2+ WAR at each OF position.
5.) The offense in the second half has been bad. Only Zobrist, Rizzo, Baez (currently slumping), Bote and LaStella have a wRC+ above 100. 3 of those guys are part time players.
6.) Only 7 of the Cubs 0 or 1 run games that the Cubs lost did the opposing team score less than 4 runs
7.) Hendricks, Darvish, Quintana, Lester and Chatwood combined have 2.7 fWAR. That would rank them them 27th on the INDIVIDUAL fWAR leader board tied with Kyle Gibson and Marco Gonzales. Montgomery and Hamels have combined for 1.9 fWAR in 17 starts.
8.) Despite all of this the Cubs still have the best record in the NL, largest division lead in the NL and a larger division lead than the Astros.
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From Sharma's latest article...Cubs run distribution vs. the other top 10 teams in MLB:
(https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2018/08/20163306/Screen-Shot-2018-08-20-at-4.30.57-PM.png:small)
Basically, the Cubs get shut down far more often than other good teams. This offense is dysfunctional. Hopefully the front office realizes this offseason that they need to change it up. Too bad there won't be anyone available who fits their timeline, payroll, and needs this year like Yelich did last year.
EDIT: Article (the image I linked isn't appearing): https://theathletic.com/481266/2018/08/20/two-steps-forward-one-step-back-the-ugly-numbers-behind-the-cubs-slumping-offense/
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Mike Fiers has a WHIP of 1.20 to Arrieta’s 1.21. Fiers also has a better K/9 and BB/9 than Arrieta.
Mike Fiers is not a #1/2.
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Arrieta is 11th in WHIP amongst starters in the NL. That makes him statistically a #1/2. He would have improved our chances to go the WS this season. I think it would have been worth the risk in terms of his performance down the road.
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Ive found out through Twitter that I can give much more blunt opinions there than I can here and that a lot of people agree with me on Darvish.
I just got more likes on a quote about Darvish's problem not being in his arm but in his heart than every tweet Ive ever tweeted before combined.
Yes, Twitter is known for the depth of knowledge and nuanced understanding (as well as the absence of ethnic or racial prejudice) of those who tweet. (Ask our President)
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Ive found out through Twitter that I can give much more blunt opinions there than I can here and that a lot of people agree with me on Darvish.
I just got more likes on a quote about Darvish's problem not being in his arm but in his heart than every tweet Ive ever tweeted before combined.
Got a link?
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You can only use 180 characters. I would guess most of your friends don't have a large enough vocabulary to finish a complete senten
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I suspect if Theo had it to do over again he would take Jake.
I suspect if Theo knew last fall what he knows now, the Cubs would have rejected the demands of both Davish and Arrieta.
I was in the Darvish camp.
I should have been in the camp wanting the Cubs to pass on both, and I don't recall any of those here last fall.
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I just got more likes on a quote about Darvish's problem not being in his arm but in his heart than every tweet Ive ever tweeted before combined.
That tells me one of two things:
A) There are LOTS of stupid folks who use twitter;
B) Your prior tweets were, well, not at all likable.
Of course the two are not really mutually exclusive.
The idea that Darvish's problem is one of his arm but is one of lack of heart, is simply nonsense.
And the fact that you have previously insisted that your dislike for Japanese pitchers has nothing to do with bias toward the Japanese, but is instead a result of Japanese pitchers being overused and arriving in the U.S. with arms that are ticking timebombs, would seem to be clearly contrary to your current lack of heart claim.
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Ive found out through Twitter that I can give much more blunt opinions there than I can here and that a lot of people agree with me on Darvish.
I just got more likes on a quote about Darvish's problem not being in his arm but in his heart than every tweet Ive ever tweeted before combined.
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I suspect if Theo had it to do over again he would take Jake.
I doubt that...at least not at the price Arrieta was seeking for most of the offseason. If he'd been willing to take the creative deal he settled for with the Phillies in mid-January, then sure, maybe they would've preferred that. But at the time Darvish signed, he was still looking for more guaranteed money than Darvish got. That would've been an extremely risky signing given Arrieta's declining stuff.
I still think Darvish was by far the better choice at the time the deal was made, and I think there's still a better than 50/50 chance that he looks like the right choice over a similarly-priced Arrieta 3 years from now.
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I liked all three Japanese imports: Mikolas, Hirano, and Ohtani. Didn't have high expectations of getting Ohtani, but Mikolas and Hirano would have been fabulous finds.
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If he had it to do over again, he'd have gotten some of the Cardinals scouts input and signed Mikolas, that guy has been a great value, particular value-per-dollar. Not that I'm jealous or anything of what they've gotten on a $15/2 deal on Mikolas, versus what Theo got on $38/3 Chatwood and $126/6 Darvish....
I believe they were after Mikolas, but he chose the Cardinals because his hometown is where they have spring training.
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If he had it to do over again, he'd have gotten some of the Cardinals scouts input and signed Mikolas, that guy has been a great value, particular value-per-dollar. Not that I'm jealous or anything of what they've gotten on a $15/2 deal on Mikolas, versus what Theo got on $38/3 Chatwood and $126/6 Darvish....
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I suspect if Theo had it to do over again he would take Jake.
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Plenty of concerning things about Arrieta too. Put me in the Cubs need to draft pitchers that throw hard and hope some of the work out. Mass drafting of guys with ok fastballs isn't working.
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I was an Arrieta guy myself.
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The real important thing is to remember that Deeg is totally responsible for all of this.
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Stem cells injections haven't been proven to be effective, but I'd certainly try that before another TJS surgery. *Not speaking as any sort of authority, just going off of the numbers of what a second TJS means, recovery time etc........
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Can't they just inject some stem cells and he'll be good as new?
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An insurance policy on a pitcher with a TJS would be really expensive. The bigger question for me is if the Cubs have an insurance policy does his full salary count towards the CBT.
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Depends on the insurance policy.
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If Yu is unable to pitch again until 2020, would the Cubs have to eat the entire cost of his salary?
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If his UCL is shot it's going to happen anyway - better sooner than later.
If there's nothing with the UCL, I don't see any obvious explanation for why this has become such a chronic issue. Hopefully there is one, and it's fixable short of surgery.
A lot of things can cause elbow pain that aren't related to UCL. The recovery rate for a second TJS is below 50%, so him undergoing a second TJS is close admitting he's done as a pitcher. The Cubs should do everything possible to avoid it. Even if he had TJS tomorrow and returned it wouldn't be until 2020 when he's pitching again, so there isn't a rush.
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You don’t want Darvish having a second TJS. The success rate on 2nd TJS is much worse than the first.
If his UCL is shot it's going to happen anyway - better sooner than later.
If there's nothing with the UCL, I don't see any obvious explanation for why this has become such a chronic issue. Hopefully there is one, and it's fixable short of surgery.
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On Friday, Darvish felt pain in his elbow for the first 10 pitches of a throwing session, but then he altered his mechanics and felt better. He carried that over to Tuesday, when he kept the same mechanics in play. Darvish thinks he'll simulate a couple innings in the bullpen in a couple days, take a break, then throw some more. He hasn't pitched in a big league game since late May.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24247892/yu-darvish-chicago-cubs-pain-free-35-pitch-bullpen-session
It looks like we were all guilty of wishful thinking. The underlying problem was still there.
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You don’t want Darvish having a second TJS. The success rate on 2nd TJS is much worse than the first.
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The Cubs will play the Pirates in the 2019 Little League Classic in Williamsport, PA. Highlights of this year's event between the Phillies and the Mets were fun to watch.
http://www.espn.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=24420529
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Theo has given out 3 big contracts and 2/3 have been disappointments.
This has very little to do with Theo, and a great deal to do with big free agent contracts.
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Didn't we used to have this guy?
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2791752-dodgers-zac-rosscup-strikes-out-the-side-on-9-pitches-for-immaculate-inning?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=editorial
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They might be forced to give Chatwood another couple of starts before rosters expand.
They could probably talk Shawn Estes to come out of retirement.... and he likely wouldn't be much worse than he was before.
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Just probing through the garbage for some backup.
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I doubt either would make it to the Cubs on waivers. Even with his down year, someone ahead of the Cubs would claim Gio hoping they could get a Hamels-type rebound from him.
Hellickson is so cheap--roughly $500K the rest of the year--that he'd get claimed by the Brewers or Cardinals just to keep him away from the Cubs. He also apparently hit the DL a couple days ago, so he wouldn't be much help in the short term anyway.
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Wonder if the Nationals would part with Gio or Hellickson.
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Shields has actually been surprisingly decent this year--1.4 fWAR, which would be second among Cubs starters. He's been pretty close to league average.
He's not good, but it probably beats throwing Chatwood out there.
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James Shields stopped being decent in Kansas City
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I think the Cubs' only real option will be if a starter passes through waivers because he makes too much money for anyone to claim him. As davep said, anyone reasonably appealing like Harvey probably won't make it past other NL contenders. And anyone cheap who passes through waivers probably isn't better than current Cub option.
Looking at the free agent list for this offseason, maybe James Shields and Marco Estrada would be decent?
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If Harvey were to make it through waivers as far as St Louis or Milwaukee, either or both would be foolish not to claim him. If he stinks, they have lost nothing but the waiver cost, and if he does well, they keep him from helping the Cubs.
Do we know if he has already passed through waivers?
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Wheeler would never get through waivers and the Mets turned down good offers for him already - they have no incentive to move him. As to Colon, why bother.
Harvey remains kind of interesting. The Reds thought they could get him through waivers. It’s not like he’s throwing lights out but the velocity is pretty good at least, and the last couple of starts have been pretty good.
Actually the more you think about Harvey the more sense he makes. What leverage do the Reds have? They get nothing if they don’t trade him. I don’t know if he’s passed through waivers already (before those two good starts) but if not, the Cubs and Brewers certainly have incentive to keep the other from getting him.
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Hey, that was a great contract if Darvish had a clean medical report when he signed it. He’s a pitcher, this **** does happen. Obviously there’s something wrong in the elbow- if it means another TJS just do it and get it over with ASAP.
As for Chatwood, well - that’s obviously a disappointment. But fair to point out Cobb and Lynn have likewise been awful.
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Pick up Colon or Harvey or Wheeler off waivers. Is Lackey busy?
Deeg and I both were for signing Darvish and Chatwood. On the plus side, we also were for Hamels. And to totally acquit myself, it was Deeg who took full responsibility for Darvish. Full.
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Yeah, that probably seals the deal on Darvish pitching again this season. Might be time to consider some sort of waiver wire trade, if there’s anything out there - Chatwood starting again this year really shouldn’t be an option.
Maybe Trevor Clifton?
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Well that sucks.
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They might be forced to give Chatwood another couple of starts before rosters expand.
Would it be better to forfeit those games in order to save the bullpen?
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They might be forced to give Chatwood another couple of starts before rosters expand.
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If after 2+ months on the DL, if Darvish cannot get past 1 inning without the pain returning, it seems highly unlikely he'll throw another pitch in the ML for the Cubs this year, doesn't it?
Which would mean the Cubs will somehow have to get by with Hamels, Hendricks, Lester, Quintana and Montgomery (if he can come back soon, and if not, lord knows who). I suppose the silver lining is that Lester was very good his last outing (after he said he'd figured out why he'd been doing so badly before) and Quintana was better today. Still, the road looks pretty rocky going forward.
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What a huge disappointment Darvish has been.
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Well, that probably means you can't realistically expect him to pitch again this season.
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Darvish indicated he wants another MRI. Felt similar pain as his last rehab start. Stopped pitching as soon as he felt it.
https://twitter.com/ESPNChiCubs/status/1031255471762624512
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Sometimes words arent even needed.
I dont have to even comment and you all know exactly what I have to say and that it's spot on.
Theo has given out 3 big contracts and 2/3 have been disappointments.
That's why we shouldnt touch Bryce Harper with a 10 foot pole and gloves on.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dk-7iaLWwAAhSB0.jpg:small)
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SMFH...
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Bummer. Maybe Chatwood will turn it around next start!
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Darvish left his rehab start early. Felt something he didn't like in warmups.
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After reading the posts in this topic and the Today's Game topic, it's hard to remember the Cubs still have the best record in the league.
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Quintana's heavy cutter usage was 2012 at 25.99%. In 2013 it dropped to 13.40%. 2014 2.71%, 2015 4.50%, 2016 0.49%.
Except for the first 2 years it was his 5th pitch. Quintana's issue this year is command, not his pitch mix.
So you want us to have our opinions actually influenced by facts?
What kind of nonsense is that?
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If Hendricks finishes strong, the Cubs would be smart to explore trades in the offseason. His reputation probably exceeds his performance going forward, and there’s just not much margin for error there.
I always find it amusing how many people seem to believe that they are the only ones who can do something as simple as looking at a player's stat line or who seem to think that a large number of other team's general managers are simply blithering idiots.
I am not really commenting here on Hendricks, nor suggesting that brjones is the only one who does this (or even that I never do), but it is amusing how we often seem to think that a large number of opposing general managers are fools.
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Quintana's heavy cutter usage was 2012 at 25.99%. In 2013 it dropped to 13.40%. 2014 2.71%, 2015 4.50%, 2016 0.49%.
Except for the first 2 years it was his 5th pitch. Quintana's issue this year is command, not his pitch mix.
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According to this board no matter how good Lester does he still sucks and no matter how much Hendricks sucks he's still good.
This board is seldom monolithic on much of anything, including the question of the relative performance or value of Lester and Hendricks.
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I think Lester's problem is that he's just not that good anymore. As for Quintana, there's some talk that he's dramatically changed his pitch mix from his South Side days - dropping the cutter, for example.
Not to dispute any of this, but if Quintana has dropped the cutter, and the cutter was an essential pitch to his effectiveness, the obvious question would be why? Why in the world has he dropped it?
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You know there's absolutely no way Lester isn't starting in the postseason (probably game 1), no matter what he does the last six weeks.
Clearly you know things some of the rest of us do not.
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Don’t get me wrong, I’ve been hyping Hamels as a Cub longer than anyone this season and I’m inclined to bring him back. But that’s a lot of money and the Cubs are going to have a lot of SP options on paper.
.
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I have seen some vicious slams in my time, but accusing the Cubs Front Office of being as stupid as CurtOne is really being nasty.
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No doubt he will regress some. But it will be a disappointment (and a surprise) if he regresses to the point that they won't exercise his option for next season. It seems clear to me that he needs the bright lights of meaningful competition to perform at his best.
I agree. We need to find others like him. One, a big time pitcher who just needs a change of scenery. Two, a pitcher inappropriately coached to the point of failure: like Arrieta. Three, a young pitcher ready to blossom: like Gerrit Cole. Of course, I thought the latter was Chatwood, and I was wrong, as was the front office.
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No doubt he will regress some. But it will be a disappointment (and a surprise) if he regresses to the point that they won't exercise his option for next season. It seems clear to me that he needs the bright lights of meaningful competition to perform at his best.
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I always thought that option was, well, an option. But it’s too early to say for sure. Obviously if Hamels keeps pitching this way it’s a no-brainer, but he’ll come back to Earth some.
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I thought there was no way they would pick up his option for 2019. Looks like I was wrong, and I'm delighted.
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Is it a forgone conclusion we will pick-up Cole Hamels option for next season at $20 million ? Isn't $ 16 million a year the going rate these days for a semi-productive MLB starting pitcher ?
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Hamels with a .072 ERA since coming to us.
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Hopefully Cole Hamels will be this year‘s version of Justin Verlander. That’s not too much to hope for, is it?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Perhaps it wasn’t!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Per Fangraphs, Cubs' chances to make the playoffs at 98%; to win the NL Central, 88.1%.
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Tyler Chatwood starts Saturday.
Well, he did get an out last time he was on the mound.
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Montgomery to the DL.
Yikes. Come back soon, Yu!
I kinda feel like that makes tonight's game more important. If we get shut out tonight, and then have Chatwood going tomorrow, don't want to be positioned to lose a couple straight.
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Tyler Chatwood starts Saturday.
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Yet another case of left shoulder inflammation. Randy Rosario returns.
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Montgomery to the DL.
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This link has many quotes from those who were watching David Bote's epic grand slam.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24395970/mlb-cubs-give-oral-history-david-bote-historic-walk-grand-slam
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Joe is going to have some fascinating lineup and rotation decisions come playoff time. Bullpen too.
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#1 on that list is a part time player by necessity, but #2 is a part time player by choice. Ride the hot streak, Joe.
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Tony Andracki
@TonyAndracki23
OPS of Cubs players since All-Star Break:
Zobrist - 1.106
Bote - 1.034
Rizzo - 1.002
Baez - .930
La Stella - .715
Heyward - .698
Bryant - .684
Contreras - .677
Schwarber - .624
Happ - .606
Almora - .562
Russell - .547
Caratini - .451
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Gleyber Torres in 82 games: 1.3 fWAR
David Bote in 34 games: 1.2 fWAR
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Good news.
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Darvish to start somewhere Sunday, location TBA.
It looks like South Bend again. The Great Lakes team has to be looking forward to a nice meal.
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Darvish to start somewhere Sunday, location TBA.
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Hamels is for me the unquestioned number 1 if the playoffs started today.
As for Quintana, as tough as it is to do so mid-season, I wish he’d bring back his cutter.
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I'm not sure I fully tracked the start of that article. I think it was talking about Quintana's game against Kansas City, not two starts ago in which he got killed very early.
But yeah, I though that was really good on Hendricks. Cerami used Hendricks last 8 starts, 2.7 FIP, terrific K/BB, and all the soft-contact and groundball stuff and all that has been really good. I thought he pitched REALLY well yesterday, it seemed like he was totally in command and there was no hard contact or anything for 3.2.... then suddenly a hit and a couple of hard-hit balls were clustered and they got two runs. Total command in 5th and 6th too. Previous game vs Washington, he also seemed really good.
Think he struggled a lot earlier on. But he's been pitching very well lately.
Think it's a very different landscape with Q. His stuff to me just looks so vulnerable, and his curveball command not consistent enough. (Both Braun HR's on Tues were terrible hanging curveballs.) Think it's kind of the life of a struggling curveball guy. Hanging curves are even more HR-vulnerable than misplaced fastballs. And curves are hard to control consistently, so on days when his curve isn't sharp, he doesn't have enough ammo to work with.
But if Hendricks can lock in the way he's been throwing lately, with some offense and relief I think they could win a lot of his starts.
I get the Hendricks bit with the skeptics, though. He can be having a really sharp game like yesterday, but of course the margin is thin, so if he loses his edge even for a moment maybe what looked like a "cruise" game is suddenly a couple runs and it's all different.
But if playoffs were now, no question he'd be near the front of the rotation.
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Thanks for the link, playtwo. Some interesting and encouraging data there.
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Cerami is much more positive re Hendricks that most of the posters here:
https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/08/16/kyle-hendricks-seems-to-have-figured-it-out/
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Realistically, you're right. Hamels could take the game 1 start if he continues to mimic 2017 Verlander. Maybe Hendricks could take it too if he really gets on a roll down the stretch. Barring injury, though, it's a lock that Lester starts one of the first three games.
That's assuming they make the postseason, of course. With their September schedule, that's far from guaranteed if they fail to build a bigger lead the rest of August.
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You know there's absolutely no way Lester isn't starting in the postseason (probably game 1), no matter what he does the last six weeks.
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Agreed. If the postseason started tomorrow, the top three should be Hamels/Montgomery/Hendricks. And game 4 would probably be best as a bullpen day. Darvish coming back strong would be huge.
I really hope Smyly comes off the DL strong enough for Joe to count on him in the postseason. That would take away some of the temptation to automatically put Montgomery in the bullpen in October.
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Thats why Monty starting in the postseason should be very much on the table.
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The numbers are what they are, sure. He’s been a weak #3/good #4 this year overall. But that doesn’t mean that they can’t change that with an adjustment. The performance in the first inning is so out of line with everything else that the logical conclusion is he’s just not ready to pitch when he comes into the game...and that’s something that could hypothetically be changed with a different pre-game routine.
I think we’re on the same page on Hendricks’ value going forward—I still think Doug Fister’s career is a strong comp, and he cratered at about Hendricks’ age. But I still think it’s easy to see how he could be a strong part of the rotation the rest of the year. I don’t think there’s much hope for 2018 versions of Lester and Quintana.
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I've never been a fan of "if you remove the first inning" type theoreticals. The numbers are what they are. All the innings count.
Hendricks has a 4.26 FIP and 3.89 xFIP, and those numbers aren't far out of line with last year. He has outperfrormed his FIP stats for his career, so maybe you assume he's good enough at the "intangibles" side of pitching to do that consistently, but not enough to be a #2 type starter. He and Lester and both probably #4s at this point, maybe optimistically one of them can pitch like a #3 the rest of the way. Maybe Lester can get an adrenaline rush and ride his red-ass nature to a good postseason, if his tank has anything left in it. As for Quintana, he's a complete wildcard. Again, Darvish coming back and pitching like a TORP is really the key to any long postseason run. It may not be likely, but if he's actually healthy he'll have a month to tune up before the playoffs, and go in with the freshest arm in the rotation. I'd certainly bet on him doing it over Lester, Hendricks or Quintana.
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I’m hopeful Quintana will figure it out next spring. Lester is probably a #4/#5 going forward, but he earned his contract already.
I agree that 2015-16 Hendricks isn’t coming back. But he’s still been about a #2 if you remove the first inning this year, so it seems like there has to be an adjustment he could make to really improve his overall results. Maybe he did something different today—that was easily the best first inning I can remember for him this year.
If Hendricks finishes strong, the Cubs would be smart to explore trades in the offseason. His reputation probably exceeds his performance going forward, and there’s just not much margin for error there.
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Tony Andracki
@TonyAndracki23
8h8 hours ago
More
Maddon revealed what HE said to home plate ump Phil Cuzzi yesterday:
"Do you realize *Ben Zobrist* is arguing with you right now? That's gotta be a bad feeling."
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According to this board no matter how good Lester does he still sucks and no matter how much Hendricks sucks he's still good.
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Does it say he's going back in time three years?
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SunTimes article on Jon Lester and what he plans to change
https://chicago.suntimes.com/?post_type=cst_article&p=1297563
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I think Lester's problem is that he's just not that good anymore. As for Quintana, there's some talk that he's dramatically changed his pitch mix from his South Side days - dropping the cutter, for example.
Hendricks is doing what he is with pure guile, really - his velocity is still off quite a ways from when he was really good, and he didn't have it to spare. He may be the best best to pitch decently the rest of the way, but I don't think he's ever going to be a #1 or 2 type starter again.
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Hendricks has actually been fine this year after he gets past the first inning. Coming into today, he'd given up 22 of his 65 earned runs in the first inning (8.25 ERA) and the league had a .971 OPS against him. In the rest of the game, he has a 3.37 ERA. Overall, the league has a .728 OPS against him (remove the first, and he's probably right around .700).
They just need to figure out what's going on in the first inning--is something in his pre-game routine off this year? Is it something in his head? Regardless, I think there's a pretty good chance he'll figure it out. I don't have anywhere close to the same optimism for Quintana or Lester until they get a chance to work on it in meaningless Spring Training games next year.
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Agree, although Hendricks didn't pitch that poorly today.
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I don't think it's an especially strong bet that Lester, Hendricks or Quintana will perform down the stretch - they're all pretty bad right now and in truth, Lester wasn't that good even when he was showing good numbers. That's why a healthy Yu and Hamels continuing to excel are key - maybe 1 of those 3 guys finds it and starts pitching like a good MORP, but probably not two.
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It's mid-August. Things can change in a week, of course, as the Brewers will recall from their dreadful week-before-All-Stars.
But **IF** the Cubs can win today, they'll come out with a 3-game lead. That's not insignificant.
Think Brewers and Cardinals have some significant vulnerabilities. Cards have the bullpen and the defense. And both Cardinals and Brewers have some hitting issues, with weak back-halves-of-lineups. *IF* one or two of their good hitters slumps, that can then leave them fairly challenged offensively. Obviously both have >30 more HR's than the Cubs, (>25% more), so maybe that helps them. But either one of those teams might have a stretch where scoring is really hard, just like the Cubs have been experiencing. So it's hard for the Cubs, but think they too may each have a couple of weeks that don't go well and where they struggle to gain or retain ground.
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I thought all season that the starting pitching would come around. It's getting late, but I still feel that way. A healthy Yu will be key. One would think that a rotation of Yu, Hamels, Hendricks, Lester, and Quintana (backed up by Montgomery) would be solid for the stretch run. Theo has assembled the requisite personnel, and it's up to the starters to perform when it counts. I think they will.
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IMO, the real troubling sign is that they are losing the blowouts. The one run game luck has shifted which has masked the fact that they are losing the big ones more than they are winning. Good teams win by blowout and that’s what they were doing earlier in the season. One run game results are too random to mean much but blowouts tell a real story and it’s not good now.
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The way our SP has pitched this season and with the sluggish way our offense has performed (or underperformed) since the break, it's almost amazing we're 2 games up on Brewers and 4 up on the Cards!
The Cubs are averaging four runs in those 25 games after averaging 5.1 before the break. In fact, they’ve been outscored 128-100 since the break and have been routed in five of those games.
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The way our SP has pitched this season and with the sluggish way our offense has performed (or underperformed) since the break, it's almost amazing we're 2 games up on Brewers and 4 up on the Cards!
If our SP and offense don't substantially improve - and quickly - we will soon be looking up in the NLC.
We've had a great run and let's hope it continues; however, if it doesn't, life will go on!
And we will still have a World Championship! (which is a vast departure from past years when the Cubs couldn't get it done down the stretch)
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Maybe it's time to try Quintana out of the pen when Yu gets back. Montgomery is certainly better right now and has been for a while. That's true of Lester too of course, but he's not going anywhere.
If Darvish has a good rehab start this weekend, I'm not sure I see the argument for waiting to bring him back all that persuasive. Sure, in a perfect world two rehab starts and recall him when the rosters expand. But apart from Hamels and Monty the rotation is pretty much a dumpster fire and nothing is remotely locked down as far as the playoffs are concerned.
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Maybe it's time for another hitter's meeting. The last one seemed to do them some good.
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Yeah the Rangers probably did as well as they could. It’s still doubtful we’ll regret trading the prospects we did though.
If Ovalles makes it big, that’ll be more of a testament to Rangers scouting and development than a particularly bad move on our part.
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I think that's not a bad score for Hamels. He had very little value to them.
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He was a $300K international signing last year. Interesting the Rangers had a guy like that on their radar.
Either that or they just thought he was worth more of a chance than a 92 mph Double-A reliever.
Anyway that seems like a fair guy to send over as the second guy in the trade.
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17 year-old OF Alexander Ovalles is the PTBNL in the Hamels deal. Having a decent season in the Dominican, out with surgery to remove the hamate bone.
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Sharma with a nice piece on Bote.
https://theathletic.com/471975/2018/08/14/sharma-reliving-the-david-bote-game-one-more-time/?source=dailyemail
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Yu Darvish’s simulated game went according to plan Tuesday morning and president Theo Epstein confirmed a rehab start will be the next step.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-cubs-yu-darvish-theo-epstein-20180814-story.html
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https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/08/14/yu-darvish-throws-another-successful-simulated-game-rehab-start-could-be-coming/
Darvish threw 3-inning session. Theo says that *If* he feels OK afterwards, he *might* be ready for a rehab outing next. Sounded pretty upbeat.
Allowed at least a HR and a double.
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Cerami with a relatively upbeat assessment of Smyly's status:
https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/08/14/drew-smyly-is-still-making-good-progress-but-september-is-the-goal-for-a-return-not-august/
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If this team is ever going to get hot and run off a long 8-10 game win streak, this would be a good week to do it. Two against the Brewers, then four against the Pirates while the Brewers and Cardinals are playing each other...a 5-1 or 6-0 week would likely mean we'd be down to a 2 team division race with the second place team 6+ games back.
Really, the next two and a half weeks are pretty critical. After this week, the Cubs have an 8 game stretch against bad teams (Tigers, Reds, and Mets) to finish out the month. But September is rough--the Cubs only have two off days and six games against sub .500 teams. Winning the division and setting up for the postseason is much easier if the division lead is twice as big at the end of this stretch.
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That was a great game by Hamels. The crazy thing is that Scherzer is like that good almost every single game!
Man, that guy is unbelievable. Amazing. One of the all-time greats. This will be 3rd straight Cy, 4th in six year, top-5 Cy voting 6 years straight.
And no indication that decline is occurring or impending. Still plenty fast, plenty strong, plenty durable. Who knows with a pitcher, but no reason to assume he won't be the best pitcher in the league again next year (by a mile).
Amazing.
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Watching Scherzer and Hamels mixing their pitches last night made me think how much harder it must be for hitters. I specifically remembered a Quintana game I saw at Wrigley where he must have used his fastball something like 90% of the time (maybe more). Granted, a good fastball that moves is not easy to hit solidly, still it seems like that's so much better for a hitter than trying to get good contact against pitchers like Scherzer and Hamels who mix up their pitches so much.
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David Adler
Verified account
@_dadler
8h8 hours ago
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Through 5 innings, Cole Hamels has gotten the Nats to whiff on 5 of their 7 swings vs. his changeup.
That brings his changeup whiff rate to 47.7% on the season (235 swings, 112 misses) -- now the highest rate among starters, leapfrogging Kenta Maeda.
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Amen, Ben.
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At Wrigley today for the first Cub game I've seen there since they got really good in 2015. And it was a VERY different experience!
Like most of you, all my life I've watched the Cubs find new ways to LOSE games they should win. Not anymore! It's such a different experience at Wrigley (or on tv) these days! Now, the Cubs are a VERY damned hard team to beat when the game is on the line!
Other teams sort of have to padlock all exits or the Cubs will find a way to wrestle out of the jaws of defeat and come back...I almost can't believe it's the Cubs we are watching!
All those years of hackaway offenses, we now have patient hitters who grind at bats, none more so than Captain Rizzo, who is as good a team leader as there is in baseball...and when have the Cubs ever had a strong field/clubhouse leader like Rizz?
All those years of lousy defense, we now have guys who can really play D at every position...even guys who are up from the minors (Bote) can play D and even guys not known for D make great plays rather often (Schwarber). And none of us could ever imagine the kind of back-pick Contreras-Rizzo executed to perfection to nail young Soto in what turned out to probably be the game's biggest play.
Despite an offense that falls asleep at times and starting pitching WAY below what we've become accustomed to, the Cubs are still on top because, well, they just won't be denied. They are a hard-nosed, tough-minded bunch who are really hard to beat!
Who knows about the future, but so far again this year - with all the problems and injuries - the Cubs play as well as a Team as any group in MLB and they win games like today that they always used to lose! Man, these are great times to be a Cub fan!
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It's crazy that the Cubs' starting pitching is absolute garbage and they have a 2 game lead in the division and a 2 game lead for best record in the NL.
Wild stuff.
It's also a testament to Joe Maddon.
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@Michael_Cerami
2h2 hours ago
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In 2018, the #Cubs *entire* pitching staff has 6.6 WAR. In 2015, Jake Arrieta had 7.3 WAR.
Much more balanced team this year.
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De La Rosa appears to be a mediocre LOOGY.
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Bruce Miles @BruceMiles2112 3s3 seconds ago
#Cubs sign pitcher Jorge De La Rosa. He is available out of pen today. Rosario optioned. Darvish on 60-day DL as a procedural move.
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Rosario is getting sent down to Iowa.
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It's crazy that the Cubs' starting pitching is absolute garbage and they have a 2 game lead in the division and a 2 game lead for best record in the NL.
Wild stuff.
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Michael Cerami
Verified account
@Michael_Cerami
2h2 hours ago
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In 2018, the #Cubs *entire* pitching staff has 6.6 WAR. In 2015, Jake Arrieta had 7.3 WAR.
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Article on Baez
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2790171-move-over-kris-bryant-and-anthony-rizzo-the-cubs-are-javy-baezs-team-now?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_medium=referral
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Career .229 hitter Kyle Schwarber?
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David Bote through first 64 AB’s: .344 BA, 22 H, 5 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 10 BB, 17 K’s.
Kyle Schwarber through first 65 AB’s: .323 BA, 21 H, 2 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 9 BB, 20 K’s.
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Fortunately the sim game went better for Darvish than it did for La Stella.
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Great. Now Darvish is hurting other players too. That guy has it out for us.
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Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs 10m10 minutes ago
Tommy La Stella fouled off a pitch from Darvish off his leg and he's down and in pain.
Carrie Muskat @CarrieMuskat 5m5 minutes ago
La Stella standing up and able to put weight on his right leg but he's done as far as the sim game goes. He's walking off. #Cubs
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DkGdP36UwAAMICu.jpg)
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Fangraphs has the Cubs playoff odds at 97.1%, winning the division at 83.7%. Both are best in the National League. It would take an epic collapse for the Cubs to not make the playoffs.
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Unless he blows up, Chavez is also a lock. He might be their best reliever right now. They have to carry a strike thrower or two--carrying mostly ball throwers didn't help them last year in the postseason.
If they're all performing reasonably well, all the starters make the roster because they're veteran starters who are getting decent results. Not saying I necessarily think that's the best move, but that is what would happen.
As bad as this rotation has been, two months is a really long time. Predicting how they'd go into the postseason (if they make it--that's still far from guaranteed) is just a wild guess at this point.
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Assuming the Cubs make the playoffs (which is far from certain at this point), I think only Lester is guaranteed a spot in the postseason rotation at this point, and he's done his best for the last month or so to give that guarantee back. The next two months will determine who is starting.
It's hard for me to imagine any of Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, Darvish, or Hamels getting left off the roster completely if they're all reasonably effective and healthy. Someone like Kintzler, Wilson, or Smyly will be left off the roster so one of them can pitch out of the bullpen.
Let’s assume everyone is healthy. Morrow, Strop, Edwards, Cishek and Montgomery are locks. Either Wilson or Smyly is a lock, even if you don’t take both. As possibles you have whichever lefty of those two loses out, Chavez, Kintzler and Bass. With an 8 man bullpen, where does that leave room for the 5th starter? Keeping that extra starter almost always ends one of two ways - they never pitch, or they’re a disaster (like Lackey last year). You’re basically saying you’re going to take your worst SP, who’s most likely never or rarely pitched out of the pen, and keep him instead of a reliever. Why?
I know the board is very anti-Wilson, but while he’s obviously inconsistent and wild, he’s also the only lefty we have who’s a short reliever by trade and is tough on lefties. He also has (successful) closing experience and he misses bats when he can find the plate. I’d be inclined to say he’s close to a lock if he has a decent final two months.
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Nice to see Padres put up 11 and beat the Brewers, while we shut out the Royals!! Now that's a great evening of baseball!
Let's keep it going tomorrow (as the Brewers may run the table on SD and KC the rest of this week)!!
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Assuming the Cubs make the playoffs (which is far from certain at this point), I think only Lester is guaranteed a spot in the postseason rotation at this point, and he's done his best for the last month or so to give that guarantee back. The next two months will determine who is starting.
It's hard for me to imagine any of Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, Darvish, or Hamels getting left off the roster completely if they're all reasonably effective and healthy. Someone like Kintzler, Wilson, or Smyly will be left off the roster so one of them can pitch out of the bullpen.
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Impossible to answer that until we know how each guy is pitching at the time. But based on how many pen arms we theoretically have and that both Monty and Chavez are likely to be on the roster, tough to see an argument to carry that 5th SP.
My gut is that it would be Hendricks left off, unless he really picks it up or one of the other four really stinks in October (or is hurt).
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If the Cubs make the playoffs and all five of Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, Darvish, and Hamels are healthy and pitching well, who are your four postseason starters? And what do you do with the fifth guy? Leave him off the roster or carry him?
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https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/08/07/cole-hamels-second-cubs-start-went-well-for-entirely-different-reasons/
Interesting take on Hamels that, I think, really shows the blessing and curse of having a huge pitch arsenal. Guys like Hamels and Darvish get in trouble by leaning on the wrong pitch or pitches sometimes (there’s evidence this was a big factor in Hamels’ decline this season). But they also have a ton of weapons they can pivot to when their top guns aren’t firing, or on the third time through the order.
Hamels’ velocity was “down” to 93.4 last night - which is still higher than his career average. I think the evidence is there’s really been no decline in his stuff at all, just his command. He’s a mercurial sort of pitcher but if we can get him right, there’s a ton of upside there.
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Smyly is quietly a pretty key figure, I think. With Duensing and Rosario being all but out of the picture and Wilson still too inconsistent for Maddon's trust, who's your lefty in clutch situations in the postseason? Montgomery will be back in the pen most likely, but he's more of a long man by trade. Maybe Smyly can be an effective option.
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Hard to count on much of anything from Smyly since he's just coming off TJ and hasn't pitched since 2016.
Sure would be great IF he can contribute!!
Smyly may be part of the front office's model for finding starting pitching...guys coming off major injuries other teams couldn't afford to pay and wait on. We just don't have inventory of high-level stuff starters in the minors!
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The team is playing well since Bryant went down. What's the record witout him?
Bryant, Darvish, and Smyly are going to be huge "acquisitions" down the stretch.
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Also available
(https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0665/2971/products/ElMago-HeatherBlue_580x.progressive.png.jpg?v=1523559216)
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Guy behind home plate the other day had a T-shirt that said "Chicago JAVYS"
Only $25.00
(https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0665/2971/products/ChicagoJavys-HeatherBlue_580x.progressive.png.jpg?v=1507043856)
https://store.barstoolsports.com/products/chicago-javys?variant=53836818133
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Cubs have had SO many problems this season! For much of the season, Javy has carried the Team on his back!
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Guy behind home plate the other day had a T-shirt that said "Chicago JAVYS"
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Javy being third in BsR is another feather in his cap, no doubt. But that stat also has Russell 6th in the NL, which makes me seriously doubt it’s veracity.
The funny thing is, Javy is already near the top of the NL in WAR even though defensive metrics this season undervalue his defense to a hilarious extreme. He won’t win the MVP but when you consider all aspects of the game, he should be the favorite.
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Bleacher Nation
@BleacherNation
1h1 hour ago
More
Javy Baez's now-.594 SLG is the best in the NL.
He also rates as the 3rd most valuable baserunner in the NL behind only Billy Hamilton & Trea Turner.
The best slugger in the league is also one of the best baserunners.
Oh, he also plays stellar D at multiple positions.
#MVP
"But his OBP is not elite, dude, so he can't be an MVP!"
If that's the biggest flaw you can find, I got a truth bomb for you:
Javy's OBP is still 15 POINTS HIGHER THAN LEAGUE AVERAGE.
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https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/cubs-drew-smyly-tosses-simulated-game/amp/
This says near future.
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You may be right. I thought I'd heard 30-pitches. Which in Darvish's case, has not been the precursor to rehab.
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I thought he did a simulated game and that was the last step before a minor league rehab assignment.
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I wonder how soon Smyly might actually pitch in a rehab game? They may prefer having him just do BP type throwing, because maybe the competitiveness of some of these guys just takes over in a real game, even if it's in Mesa, and they want to avoid that for now?
A rehab assignment, I think, is limited to 30 days, right? So they probably wouldn't have wanted to initiate that in July, even if he was maybe ready physically, because if the rehab calendar runs out, and it turns out he is NOT ready yet (whether physically unready or maybe he's just fine physically but he's got Chatwood-level control.....), then you're stuck.
But if they started a 30-day rehab now, even if he wasn't ready there would still be plenty of 40-man space once the rehab expired, so the only risk is to bump guy #40 off.
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Yeah, it's possible that both Smyly, Darvish, and maybe even MOrrow might all three be ready for a September activation. Not sure, but maybe Bryant too? Maybe a 75% Bryant would still be worth having if it didn't mean sending Bote out?
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Smyly.
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Now that we are a week into August the September call-ups are just around the corner. Who is a lock to be called up? I would think Bass, Maples, Underwood, Norwood, Zastryzny. Farrell and Mazzoni could all get the call. Considering Mekkes isn't on the 40 man I would imagine he would be left off. I could see Zagunis as well. Maybe Jen-Ho Tseng too? Usually teams like to call up a third catcher for September but in order to do so they would have to roster someone, most likely Gimenez. I know the next 3 weeks will have a lot to do with it, but I have to imagine those decisions are being made now in the Cubs front office while they scour the waiver wire to see if there is something more they can do.
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Today's road trip dress-up was dress like Pedro Strop day. Yu Darvish appears to have won:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dj3_GYcUYAAnrHR.jpg:small)
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Maybe the trainers can work on Bryant's back - and the shoulder will come around
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Before opening day, one of the big arguments here was who was the Cubs' ace. Hendricks, Darvish, Lester and Quintana all had their supporters.
At this point, based on performance, the most reasonable argument would be that the Cubs have no ace in their rotation.
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I'm less optimistic that Bryant will be able to come back at anything close to the real thing. Maddon said several times, even back a month ago, that he'd need to "play through it" this year. So, if three months before the playoffs there wasn't a chance that rest+rehab could completely fix it in three months, I admit I'm a little hesitant to assume that 4 months of off-season rest+rehab will be able to completely fix it.
If months of rehab can't really fix it, is this a deal that actually needs surgery? If so, how likely is that a post-World Series surgery would have him 100% by spring?
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Great to have Darvish in progress.
I'd like to hope that Morrow will make some progress at some point as well.
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Finally, some optimism surrounding Yu Darvish's rehab
By Tony Andracki (NBC Chicago) August 04, 2018 1:03 PM
LATEST CUBS TALK
Finally, some optimism surrounding Yu Darvish's rehab
Yu Darvish hasn't spoken to Alex Rodriguez, but he has a plan ready if the former player and current ESPN broadcaster were to reach out:
"If he sends me a text message or something, I'll keep it, maybe take a screenshot, print it out, frame it," Darvish said through a translator.
That officially ended his media session before Saturday's game, but Darvish wasn't done yet:
"I'm not joking," he said in English as he walked away.
It's been a little while since we've seen that sense of humor and edge from Darvish.
He has plenty of bulletin board material for his Comeback Tour and for the first time in what feels like forever, there is actually optimism surrounding Darvish's rehab.
He threw around 55 pitches Saturday morning in the Cubs bullpen underneath the left-field bleachers. That includes warm-up pitches and the Cubs also simulated an inning break by having him throw some pitches, sit down for about five minutes and then get back up and finish off the session.
Darvish worked in every pitch in his arsenal and said he felt good after. Instead of talking about any anxiety or discomfort after a throwing session like previous instances, he instead was looking toward the future, discussing facing hitters as the next step.
"Yeah, certainly [this is the best I've felt]," Darvish said through a translator. "I think all my pitches, velocity-wise were up there at the highest and then I was able to follow through with my arm motion.
"Definitely now that I'm pitching, very optimistic about the process now."
The Cubs don't have a set plan, but if Darvish reports all is well physically Sunday, the next step would be a simulated game against his Cubs teammates.
Darvish felt like he turned a corner physically about 10 days ago and believes it could possibly be because he and Cubs trainers put more emphasis on treating his back and triggering a "more positive flow."
The Cubs always treat every area of a player's body while they're rehabbing, which makes sense. Just because a guy is on the disabled list for an elbow or triceps injury doesn't mean he or the Cubs trainers can neglect other parts of his body as he tries to get back into game shape.
"Everything up until this point, there was a little bit of pain and discomfort involved," Darvish said. "So I was just trying to see alternatives and it ended up being in the back.
"I can't say for certain [the back treatment helped the arm], but timing-wise, that's when I started the treatment and discomfort and everything went away. So it could be a factor."
Whether the back was the key in the recovery or not, the 31-year-old pitcher has said the whole process recently has been better than it was before.
He's been on quite the roller coaster the last three months.
After a start at Wrigley Field on May 2, Darvish was placed on the disabled list with the flu. He returned May 15 in Atlanta and had to leave that game due to leg cramps.
He made one more start — May 20 in Cincinnati — before again hitting the disabled list, this time with triceps tightness.
That triceps issue was addressed and Darvish worked up to a rehab start in Class-A South Bend on June 25.
But he reported some discomfort after that 57-pitch outing and then had to have his ensuing bullpen halted in Los Angeles later that week.
Darvish flew to Texas to get a second opinion on his arm, where it was discovered he had an elbow impingement. He received a cortisone shot in that elbow on June 29 and now has been working his way back from that ordeal over the last five weeks.
The Cubs have taken things slow with the veteran right-hander, especially given his history (he had Tommy John surgery in March 2015).
Theo Epstein said before the trade deadline the Cubs knew they realistically couldn't rely on Darvish returning and making an impact for this team, so they went out and acquired one of Darvish's former teammates — Cole Hamels — to help bolster the rotation.
Even in a best case scenario, Darvish is still weeks away from being able to throw on a Cubs uniform and pitch in front of the Wrigley Field fans again.
But this is absolutely a step in the right direction and if he does return, it could be perfect timing for the team a few weeks before the postseason.
A Darvish return could also mean the Cubs flip Mike Montgomery back from the rotation into the bullpen as they keep an eye on the southpaw's workload (he's on pace for a career-high in innings pitched).
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Another fine column from Sharma.
https://theathletic.com/457309/2018/08/03/three-issues-the-cubs-must-correct-to-make-a-deep-october-run/
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Duensing to the DL doesn't surprise me. Yes, a DFA was in order, but Theocracy places value on loyalty and Duensing turned down higher offers to come back to the Cubs. I don't think that loyalty will carry into 2019.
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Chicago Cubs @Cubs 29m29 minutes ago
The #Cubs today placed LHP Brian Duensing on the 10-day DL with left shoulder inflammation and recalled LHP Randy Rosario from @IowaCubs.
Left shoulder inflammation must be contagious.
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Shocking I misspelled names. Sorry, not sorry.
FWIW my phone autocorrected Kintzler because I looked it up.
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In the playoffs with off days, 4-5 innings is all you need.
6- Kinsler/Chisek
7- Strop
8- Edwards
9- Marrow
Will in with Montgomery/Wilson/Chavez as needed.
I'd rather have the extra pitching depth so you can pull a starter even earlier if the game warrants. And we've seen enough tough games to know that a lot of innings 6-9 will require multiple relievers per inning. And not every guy will be able to pitch every day.
Exactly what Jeff notes.
*Rare for our starters to give 5 effective innings. Maddon often tries to push them through 5 during the season to save the pen, but that's not the priority in playoffs.
*Mid-inning switches are huge for Maddon in any semi-close priority games. If the starter gives 4 innings (or less) and the relievers need to cover 5 (or more), with only 8 relievers that's well under two-per-inning.
*Extra innings can also happen.
*Pressure and wild relievers can change the plan. Going into last playoffs, Edwards was assumed to be a key player. But he went crazy, and suddenly you don't want to rely on him. Hopefully this year everything will go great, and all the relievers will be rested and ready and sharp. But Wilson, Edwards, Strop, Morrow, Montgomery, Chatwood, Darvish, we've got a lot of guys whose control is always iffy-at-best; playoff pressure combined with long layoffs might make any or several of them go wild. OK, so maybe you don't include a Chatwood on the playoff roster; but the staff is so wild that you're for sure going to keep some wild guys on, and as with Edwards and Montgomery and Rondon last playoffs, you might not know going into a series which guy is going to lose it.
We'll see. Last couple of years, they've dumped a pitcher in order to carry a pinch-runner type. Don't see that being a value this year.
Cutting a pitcher spot to carry both Bryant and Bote might have considerable merit, though. If the Cubs get in, and if Bryant and the present twelve guys are all healthy.
Probably a fair chance that they'll be able to carry 13 pitchers as normal simply because they don't have 13 players healthy.
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Morrow. Kintzler. Ffs
Cishek (Chisek), too.
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In the playoffs with off days, 4-5 innings is all you need.
6- Kinsler/Chisek
7- Strop
8- Edwards
9- Marrow
Will in with Montgomery/Wilson/Chavez as needed.
I'd rather have the extra pitching depth so you can pull a starter even earlier if the game warrants. And we've seen enough tough games to know that a lot of innings 6-9 will require multiple relievers per inning. And not every guy will be able to pitch every day.
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In the playoffs with off days, 4-5 innings is all you need.
6- Kinsler/Chisek
7- Strop
8- Edwards
9- Marrow
Will in with Montgomery/Wilson/Chavez as needed.
Morrow. Kintzler. Ffs
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Well, no, but I'd rather have Bote with a chance of KB getting healthy than .750 OPS KB-gutting-it-out. I'm less worried about making the playoffs than I am doing well in the playoffs, so the health of a lot of these guys is more important than having them back Right Now.
Kris Bryant first went on the DL on June 23. You can't do well in the playoffs if you don't get there.
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We all want to see David Bote stay on the roster but not if it means KB doesn't return until September 1.
Well, no, but I'd rather have Bote with a chance of KB getting healthy than .750 OPS KB-gutting-it-out. I'm less worried about making the playoffs than I am doing well in the playoffs, so the health of a lot of these guys is more important than having them back Right Now.
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In the playoffs with off days, 4-5 innings is all you need.
6- Kinsler/Chisek
7- Strop
8- Edwards
9- Marrow
Will in with Montgomery/Wilson/Chavez as needed.
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Yes, but my point was that it was overkill with a decent 4-man rotation. Without one, it's appropriate.
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12 pitchers is already overkill with a decent 4-man rotation in a postseason series. Assuming Darvish did come back and pitch well and so did Morrow the Cubs would certainly have the depth to carry 13 pitchers (and no, Chatwood not among them) if they wanted. But that doesn't mean they should.
The "decent 4-man rotation" is the issue. As it the assumption that Darvish will come back and pitch well.
To me, the reality is that the Cubs do NOT have a decent 4-man rotation. Hamels, after 9 days of rest following 10 days for his previous start, still took ~100 pitches to get through 5. Lester and Hendricks nibble a lot and normally are at or over 100 pitches within 5 innings. Even before his injury, it was exceptional for Darvish to finish 5 innings; and several of the games where Maddon did try to push him beyond four innings, it wasn't so much to win the game as for long-term-season reasons, to protect the pen, or to build Darvish up, or to get him a W, or to build his confidence, or something. Coming back after the injury, I don't think you want to be expecting Darvish to be giving you 5-inning starts.
Sure, if things go right, some of the starters might be sharp and well-rested and give a five or even a six-inning start in the playoffs. But for the most part, I think in the playoffs you want to be ready and willing to be pulling starters pretty early, if they aren't unusually sharp. Hope for 5 innings, but be willing to settle for 4 or 3 or even less. No point in letting Hendricks or Lester or Q or Darvish pitch tired or pitch "off" in the playoffs.
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 35m35 minutes ago
Maddon indicated that Bryant was still feeling some discomfort in range of motion exercises
We all want to see David Bote stay on the roster but not if it means KB doesn't return until September 1.
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12 pitchers is already overkill with a decent 4-man rotation in a postseason series. Assuming Darvish did come back and pitch well and so did Morrow the Cubs would certainly have the depth to carry 13 pitchers (and no, Chatwood not among them) if they wanted. But that doesn't mean they should.
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With a 4 man rotation and a lot of off days I think 13 would be overkill.
NLDS is usually 2 games then a travel day.
Last year in the NLCS, both teams used 11 pitchers. In 2016, the Cubs used 11 and the Dodgers 12. In 2015 the Cubs used 11 and the Mets used 9.
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With a 4 man rotation and a lot of off days I think 13 would be overkill.
NLDS is usually 2 games then a travel day.
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The right 13 pitchers, I would agree. If one of the 13 is named Chatwood, I disagree.
Chatwood is currently below #13 on merit.
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The right 13 pitchers, I would agree. If one of the 13 is named Chatwood, I disagree.
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If Darvish comes back this season, pitches well, and the Cubs make the playoffs, I would like to see them carry 13 pitchers in the postseason.
Probably an unpopular opinion, but I think that thirteenth position player will be far less impactful than having that extra pitcher. The playoffs are just so brutal on a pitching staff.
Agree.
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If Darvish comes back this season, pitches well, and the Cubs make the playoffs, I would like to see them carry 13 pitchers in the postseason.
Probably an unpopular opinion, but I think that thirteenth position player will be far less impactful than having that extra pitcher. The playoffs are just so brutal on a pitching staff.
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Didn't he sign with someone already?
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If he wants to go to Iowa for a month with no guarantee he'll get a roster spot once rosters expand, sure. It would be fun to stick it to the Cardinals if he gets it together in AAA.
If he wants to be on an MLB roster as soon as he signs, then let him go somewhere else.
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Any interest in Greg Holland?
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 27m27 minutes ago
Rosario optioned to Iowa, Kintzler en route, will wear No. 20
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Theo said Passan called him this AM unprompted to say Kintzler wasn't the source.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/nationals-journal/wp/2018/08/01/i-loved-being-here-brandon-kintzler-thought-he-was-safe-now-hes-a-cub/?utm_term=.d2bf22870401
Pretty interesting article there. Thanks for posting. The Nats still sound like a train wreck, though.
Hope springs eternal here, but maybe he can lend a hand to Chatwood in the pen...
He played the role of pitching coach, helping Tanner Roark and Gio Gonzalez with their mechanics during their struggles this season. His presence was felt.
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Ugh, that $5 million option is a little more than I’d want to be paying Kintzler next season. I was wondering why Washington would want to trade him.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/nationals-journal/wp/2018/08/01/i-loved-being-here-brandon-kintzler-thought-he-was-safe-now-hes-a-cub/?utm_term=.d2bf22870401
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Van the Man and the Band. Just got it, Jeff
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Wrong topic, but he either stinks or was acquired by IFA in trade.
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Well played!
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ra-loo-ra-loo-ral
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too what?
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Justin Wilson too
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Yu Darvish (elbow) threw a successful 35-pitch bullpen session on Tuesday afternoon.
Darvish told reporters afterward that it was the first time he felt no discomfort in his elbow from his first warm-up throw to his final pitch off the mound. The right-hander should soon advance to simulated work and then eventually a minor league rehab assignment. It's possible he could rejoin the Cubs' rotation before the end of August. Jul 31 - 6:21 PM
Source: Gordon Wittenmyer on Twitter
That sounds positive. Are any towel sessions in the offing?
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Yu Darvish (elbow) threw a successful 35-pitch bullpen session on Tuesday afternoon.
Darvish told reporters afterward that it was the first time he felt no discomfort in his elbow from his first warm-up throw to his final pitch off the mound. The right-hander should soon advance to simulated work and then eventually a minor league rehab assignment. It's possible he could rejoin the Cubs' rotation before the end of August. Jul 31 - 6:21 PM
Source: Gordon Wittenmyer on Twitter
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No indication of any $$$ from Washington in that deal? Seems odd we'd put ourselves on the hook for $5 million for Kintzler - I'd sooner have done nothing and rolled with what we had.
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Im glad another deadline has passed in which we held on to our core.
People want reinforcements yet they bitch when the farm system is weak and we added 3 usable arms without giving up anything worth a shit.
Hamels can be a tremendous boost to our rotation.
Chavez adds versatility and has already won over a lot of folks.
Kintzler is one year removed from being an all star and even though he doesnt have strikeout stuff he's always been good.
If we had traded Amaya,Happ,Russell,Almora or whoever and even got DeGrom in return somebody here would have bitched.
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Ugh, that $5 million option is a little more than I’d want to be paying Kintzler next season. I was wondering why Washington would want to trade him.
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But as a Cub he will completely forget how to throw strikes and he'll allow runs like a sieve.
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Bruce Levine
@MLBBruceLevine
51s52 seconds ago
Cubs new pitcher Brandon Kintzler has allowed just 3 runs in his last thirteen outings .
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To make room for Kintzler on the 40-man roster, RHP Justin Hancock has been transferred to the 60-day DL.
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$10 million club or $5 million player option on Kintzler
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@CarrieMuskat
47s47 seconds ago
Kintzler, who turns 34 on Wednesday, has a 2.03 ERA in 13 games in July. He has a mutal option for 2019. #Cubs
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Heh!
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From Carrie Muskat:
"Nats will get RHP Jhon Romero from @Pelicanbaseball for Kintzler. #Cubs"
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Hahahahahahaha
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Looking to keep the top of the pen as rested as possible for the postseason, I imagine.
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On the plus side, he is a strike thrower.
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Maybe he's bringing Harper with him!
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Cubs close to gettIna Brandon Kintzler per Rosenthal. That’s underwhelming.
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https://twitter.com/ken_rosenthal/status/1024368709501177860
Kintzler
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Correct
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About 90 minutes left til the trade deadline, right?
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You mean the guy in Alaska is a fraud?
HEIMO KORTH?
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I'd rather have Wheeler.
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Bruce Levine @MLBBruceLevine
@JonHeyman reports Cubs are in on Matt Harvey . Cubs still very serious about adding impactful starting pitching .
Harvey isn't exactly what I'd call "impactful starting pitching."
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And if he does come back healthy and strong, what’s so bad about a RH long man throwing upper 90s?
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You mean the guy in Alaska is a fraud?
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Don’t you kinda have to hedge your bets on that, though, if the price is right?
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Carrie Muskat @CarrieMuskat 33m33 minutes ago
#Cubs Maddon says on @670TheScore that Baez at 3B, Zo at 2B tonight vs Pirates
Bote being dealt?
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Harvey with the Reds, 6.9 K/9, 2.10 BB/9, 4.44 ERA, 4.67 FIP, 4.51 xFIP.
Unless you think Darvish isn't coming back, I just don't see him replacing anybody in the rotation.
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Tweets can’t embed in 2018 smh
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Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
Add #Athletics to list of teams pursuing #Padres’ Stammen, sources say. #Cubs also in mix, per @dennistlin.
Jon Heyman @JonHeyman
sources: brewers and cubs are among main teams in mix for matt Harvey. (not likely braves, I am told).
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https://twitter.com/jonheyman/status/1024349332877860864
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Okay. Harper to the Cubs for Chatwood. some guy in Alaska with an Ipad just reported it.
Too much. Nats need to pay at least 80% of Harpers 10 year extension.
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Nats GM just said they wont trade Harper.
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Okay. Harper to the Cubs for Chatwood. some guy in Alaska with an Ipad just reported it.
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Rumors are fun, even less credible one can create some discussion. Fun is ok for a message board.
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I think we know who to trust with not advancing fake crap. I mean, this isn't CNN.
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It is a shame that our posts don't have to citations anymore.
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You guys realize that with all these rumors and conjecture, if Reb were still here, his head would be exploding.
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Tepera would be a pretty good target, but the Blue Jays’ rentals are pretty uninspiring.
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Gordo thinks that Blue Jays are where the Cubs are looking for bullpen help.
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Is Craig Stammen a possibility?
A few minutes ago, Padres beat writer Dennis Lin tweeted that the Cubs were scouting Stammen and Yates last night.
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Is Craig Stammen a possibility?
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Bruce Levine
@MLBBruceLevine
43m43 minutes ago
Cubs still pursuing starting and relief pitchers going down the wire. Epstein and Hoyer always look for difference making deadline deals . ( 16 Chapman - 17 Quintana -Wilson )
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Bob Nightengale
Verified account @BNightengale
3h3 hours ago
The Chicago #Cubs definitely will acquire another pitcher today, likely a reliever, and #Marlins closer Brad Ziegler remains the most likely target as the two teams are engaged in talks
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And now, Morosi takes the middle ground...so he has his bases covered on Ziegler to the Cubs:
Jon Morosi @jonmorosi
Further clarification on Brad Ziegler: #Cubs remain engaged with #Marlins, source says, but other teams are involved in the Ziegler talks. @MLBNetwork @MLB
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Craig Misch said the Marlins where looking for IFA money and somebody to take all his remaining money, limiting the pool of teams.
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Morosi changes his mind:
Jon Morosi @jonmorosi
Brad Ziegler trade to #Cubs is not close, according to a separate source. Sides have talked, but current status remains unclear. @MLB @MLBNetwork
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Jon Morosi @jonmorosi
#Cubs trade for Brad Ziegler is not done, source says, but it is close. #Marlins @MLB @MLBNetwork
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Maybe you're having another memory lapse but I didnt tell Theo.
I told Rosenthal.
Its all good though Brother.
We all know we have to treat you with kid gloves these days.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/draxe.com/15-brain-foods-to-boost-focus-and-memory/amp/
Interesting.... but it was still Theo who was waiting for the advice, and also the advice to trade Almora and Russell.
Rosenthal really didn't care.
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Official response from Darvish team on A-Rod: “If it had come from a credible journalist, we might have expressed some concern.”
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Why on earth would they trade Almora?
In theory, if you want a TORP you have to trade one of the core. Not that I justify it or think it’s going to happen.
If you’re going to trade anybody, a case can be made for it to be Almora. He still has some of the same limitations he’s always had - no walks. Big splits - .726 OPS vs. righties. He’s actually 5th among Cubs OF in OPS overall. He’s having a very good year but some of the hype around him isn’t fully justified by the numbers. If we had plenty of pitching I’d never consider trading Almora in a million years, but we’re in a position where you have to at least consider trading someone from the core.
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Theo had become a bit nervous waiting on that advice.
Maybe you're having another memory lapse but I didnt tell Theo.
I told Rosenthal.
Its all good though Brother.
We all know we have to treat you with kid gloves these days.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/draxe.com/15-brain-foods-to-boost-focus-and-memory/amp/
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Why on earth would they trade Almora?
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I told him that on Twitter yesterday.
Theo had become a bit nervous waiting on that advice.
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Almora,Russell,and Caratini for DeGrom. I certainly wouldn't.
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I'd rather trade Almora or Russell.
What could you get for Almora,Russell,and Caratini?
DeGrom?
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Yes it does but we better get something damn useful for Happ.
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And Russell as well.
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No. But it proabably makes Bote more tradeable.
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Topic: does Bote's emergence make Happ more tradeable?
Discuss.
It wouldn't be surprising if Theo might have led a front office discussion in the last few days in very much the same way, put it that way.
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Topic: does Bote's emergence make Happ more tradeable?
Discuss.
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Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
Longshot that cannot be dismissed until after deadline passes: #Cubs getting controllable SP. Could build deal around Happ or another young hitter. Obstacles: Scarcity in market. Many teams want elite prospects over MLB pieces. CHC too thin in young pitching to add to deal.
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ARod was speaking hypothetically when he said that. He wasn’t talking specifically about Darvish and the Cubs.
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How bout A-Rod telling the truth about Darvish tonight?
A-Rod commented and said “things are not good in the clubhouse” regarding Darvish not contributing to the team.
I just think you mean A-Rod being a total douche and talking out of his ass as usual.
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Maddon dismisses ARod's comments as nonsense (from Jesse Rogers):
Joe Maddon responded to comments made on the ESPN broadcast Sunday night regarding Yu Darvish and issues people within the club may have with his injury situation.: "We know that there is an injury there. We support his recovery. Everybody in there does and everybody in the coach's room does, also, throughout the organization. It's unfortunate that it was relayed that way but that is not true."
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Trying to think of who else might be a target. We're the guys Tampa was saying they wanted for Archer were ML ready like Almora and Happ?
From MLBTradeRumors:
In an interview with Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, Archer called the trade chatter surrounding him “unsettling.” Topkin again notes that the industry sense is that Tampa Bay is more willing than ever to trade Archer, and he adds that a young catcher and a power-hitting outfield prospect would be “a good start” to a package from the Rays’ vantage point.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/07/trade-talks-on-chris-archer-intensifying.html
If the Cubs really wanted Archer and that's what the Rays want, I think a package headed by Happ/Caratini is very competitive. But I don't think the Cubs will go after an expensive starter.
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It would be nice if ARod had actually been in the Cubs clubhouse. I took that as ARod projecting his views on the Cubs.
If Tommy LaStella can be accepted by the Cubs players after going AWOL, I don’t think Darvish has a thing to worry about.
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How bout A-Rod telling the truth about Darvish tonight?
A-Rod commented and said “things are not good in the clubhouse” regarding Darvish not contributing to the team.
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Trying to think of who else might be a target. We're the guys Tampa was saying they wanted for Archer were ML ready like Almora and Happ?
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I hope we find out that Giambrone was hugging his teammates after he came out of the game just to mess with Twitter.
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Must've been an emotional injury.
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Vandy is right.
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I'm thinking Giambrone and Ayala are probably enough to get Harper or DeGrom but probably not both of them.
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Giambrione pulled because of hamstring injury
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Giambrone probably needed to go to the bathroom so he was removed from the game.
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Avilan wouldn't be terrible--he's been better than his ERA this year. But I can't imagine every source sat on Giambrone for Avilan for 3 hours after the agreement was close enough to pull Giambrone from a game.
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A bunch of less than stellar sources are mentioning the Cubs/White Sox were talking lefties in the pen.
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This is really out of the ordinary for trades over the last few years. I can't believe nothing has leaked yet. It's been over 3 hours since Mick Gillispie tweeted about Giambrone leaving early, and still nothing more than "it's not Texas, Miami, or Blake Parker."
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Well.
Its gonna be hard for me to be productive until this is settled.
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And it's not Blake Parker,FYI.--Jesse Rogers
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Trent Giambrone, the #Cubs prospect who was pulled from his game today and reportedly seen hugging teammates in the dugout, is not the PTBNL in the Cole Hamels trade. And the #Cubs have no second deal in the works with the #Rangers. Just in case anyone was wondering ...--Crasnick
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That would give them a 2 player bench. I think they’d make some move before that or a trade that large would break by now.
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I was about to post the same Br.
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Conspiracy theorists on Twitter keep pointing out that both Almora and Happ are out of the lineup tonight, which is rare. It's all speculation based on nothing, but I guess it's worth noting.
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The Padres pen is impressive, but most of their guys are likely too expensive. Blue Jays maybe a possible team too.
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A Blake Parker reunion wouldn’t be a bad idea, but he’d be more expensive.
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Zach Duke and Fernando Rodney would be mildly interesting relievers from the Twins.
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Well, Jesse Rogers tweeted that if there is a trade, it’s not with the Rangers.
Given that this has been out for more than an hour and nothing has leaked, this could be an out-of-nowhere big deal.
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The #30 prospect in a bad system also seems like Diekman's approximate value.
Giambrone also seems like a decent second or third piece in a bigger deal.
If that’s the cost, would love it to be Diekman.
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Twitter thinks it’s not Ziegler, fwiw...
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The #30 prospect in a bad system also seems like Diekman's approximate value.
Giambrone also seems like a decent second or third piece in a bigger deal.
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Interesting...
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Craig Mish (who was on top of the Stanton/Ozuna/Yelich trades all offseason) responded when someone asked him about Cubs prospects leaving the game:
Craig Mish @CraigMish
The Marlins do not appear to be part of this.
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Trent Giambrone #Cubs Leads @smokiesbaseball with 16 Homeruns, 22 Stolen bases and second with 19 Doubles. Pulled in the 3rd inning and didn’t appear to be injury related. Ranked as the 30th best prospect https://t.co/Ujt5ZIVn17 prospect list. Hugs reported in the dugout.--Gillespie
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According to the box score, Luis Ayala was also pulled from the game in the second inning. That’s Giambrone and Ayala so far.
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Isn’t Ziegler leading the league in games pitched? His arm
might fall off before Cishek’s.
That’s a fair point. But Ziegler is already used to trying to survive with mid 80’s velocity, and at this point the scar tissue is probably the only thing still attaching the arm to the shoulder.
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Isn’t Ziegler leading the league in games pitched? His arm
might fall off before Cishek’s.
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Heyman just tweeted that Brad Ziegler will be traded soon and the Cubs are a possibility. That seems like the type of prospect he’d get.
Like I said, he's our poor man's Cishek when Cishek' arm falls off. Almost no chance of being on the playoff roster, if there is one.
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Heyman just tweeted that Brad Ziegler will be traded soon and the Cubs are a possibility. That seems like the type of prospect he’d get.
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Hey an tweeted Ziegler is getting moved soon..
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Mick Gillispie
@BroadcasterMick
Follow Follow @BroadcasterMick
More
Not sure why but Trent Giambrone #Cubs just replaced in the 3rd inning vs Chattanooga. #30 http://MLB.com prospect list
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$250,000 in IFA money. Orioles really are going to sign Mesa.
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Orioles beat writer:
Roch Kubatko @masnRoch
Hearing #braves and #cubs "pushing" for #orioles reliever Brad Brach.
He won't be coming to the Cubs. Orioles beat writers are tweeting that the Braves have traded for Brach.
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I see now.
Fake account.
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Dusty where is that from Rosenthal hasn’t tweeted anything for 2 hours?
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I hope Theo doesn't even return the phone call.
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Multiple sources tell me #Nationals OF Bryce Harper will be available in trade discussions with another loss to the Marlins today. Rizzo and Co. have already reached out to #Dodgers, #Yankees , and #Cubs, among other teams, to begin to gauge his market value.--Rosenthal
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Good interview (http://cbs.streamguys.com/d/clips/4b5f9d6d-9214-48cb-8455-a73200038129/cfaa7adf-7573-4ae6-b7c4-a78a01215655/8119339c-1dd3-4741-83fb-a92c0123452e/audio/direct/t1532886100/Mac_Engel_on_Cole_Hamels,_issues_with_Yu_Darvish.mp3?t=1532886100&aw_0_1st.episodeid=Mac+Engel+on+Cole+Hamels%2c+issues+with+Yu+Darvish&aw_0_1st.genre=&callsign=WSCRAM&market=Chicago&awCollectionId=20603&show=Best+Of+The+Score&category=Sports+%26+Recreation&awEpisodeId=8119339c-1dd3-4741-83fb-a92c0123452e&episode=Mac+Engel+on+Cole+Hamels%2c+issues+with+Yu+Darvish&listeningSessionID=5b368773df6de015_2590196_wSOnby6u__0000000fCsO) on Hammels/Darvish with Mac Engel
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Orioles beat writer:
Roch Kubatko @masnRoch
Hearing #braves and #cubs "pushing" for #orioles reliever Brad Brach.
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Lots of talk the Cubs are serious about Barraclough from the Marlins. I don't see it given what they're going to be asking, given he has 3+ seasons of control. Never been able to throw strikes, velocity is down this season. Unless he's cheap (and Miami has no incentive to let him go cheap) it's a pass for me.
Yeah, I've never understood the excitement some Cubs fans on other boards seem to have about Barraclough. He basically has Edwards' bad command with lower upside. His surface level numbers have been good enough and he still has enough control left that he'd be expensive, though. If you're willing to pay for Barraclough, you might as well go on and add a little more for Kela, who is a far better buy.
This front office loves high ceiling guys who can't throw strikes, though. He'd fit right in with the non-Chavez relievers.
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Lester Strode now has 00. No word on what, if anything, he got from Cole Hamels for giving up #35.
The Cubs have never had anybody with 0 or 00.
I will go ahead and say that the Cubs have still never had anybody wear 0 or 00.
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Cole Hamels has always worn #35. That has been Lester Strode's number since 2007.
Lester Strode now has 00. No word on what, if anything, he got from Cole Hamels for giving up #35.
The Cubs have never had anybody with 0 or 00.
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With Moustakas to #Brewers that makes #Marlins Barraclough even more realistic option for #Cubs.--Joe Frisaro
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Hard pass.
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He has had some issues with the Rangers in the past, so I wonder if make-up issues is affecting the price. My guess is Amaya and Alzolay+ would both have to be in the deal.
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Daniel Greenberg
@ChiSportUpdates
1h1 hour ago
More
The Chicago Cubs are “looking at” Rangers relievers Jake Diekman and Keone Kela. (Via Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe)
Obviously Kela would be a tremendous get - a 25 year-old closer with lights-out stuff and multiple years of control. But what in the world could we offer that would even tempt them, apart from Russell or Happ? And I'm not giving up Russell or Happ (or Amaya) for a relief pitcher.
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Old news
Chicago Cubs @Cubs 6h6 hours ago
The #Cubs today recalled RHP Cory Mazzoni from @IowaCubs. RHP Alec Mills has been optioned to Iowa.
Mazzoni pitched today so he'll probably go back to Iowa on Sunday. James Norwood has spent the requisite 10 days in the minors so he'll likely be called up.
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The Chicago Cubs are “looking at” Rangers relievers Jake Diekman and Keone Kela. (Via Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe)
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Cubs beat writers have all tweeted out that Chatwood will be going to the pen and Hamels will likely make his debut on Wednesday.
That's official, and Chatwood talked about it after the game. He seems to be realistic enough not to be angry about it, just depressed. But one could take his answers to be not especially complimentary of his pitching coach.
Problem is, no one in the rotation apart from Lester is pitching well, and even he's started to spring some leaks. Lot of pressure on Hamels to be a stabilizing force right away, as Darvish seems to be at least a month away still.
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Cubs beat writers have all tweeted out that Chatwood will be going to the pen and Hamels will likely make his debut on Wednesday.
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So I'm pretty excited to have a staff of Lester, Darvish, Hendricks, Quintana, and Hamels. 5 seasons ago it was Travis Wood, Jeff Smardjoqiozkdfgnlasdk, Edwin Jackson, and a combination of Rusin, Villanueva, Garza and Feldman. My how times have changed.
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Lots of talk the Cubs are serious about Barraclough from the Marlins. I don't see it given what they're going to be asking, given he has 3+ seasons of control. Never been able to throw strikes, velocity is down this season. Unless he's cheap (and Miami has no incentive to let him go cheap) it's a pass for me.
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Lone star baseball is now walking back Steele being in the trade.
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http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/07/27/cubs-among-two-teams-showing-most-interest-thus-far-in-marlins-righty-brad-ziegler/
He's got a salary of $9M/year. Wouldn't mind him at all as another salary dump, but I sure hope they don't give up any real talent or prospects for him.
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I told him that on Twitter yesterday.
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He's not going to be a factor this season, but I'd still like to see the Cubs sign Trevor Rosenthal.
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Theo said the Cubs are not necessarily done dealing: “We’re still out there looking and we will be right until the last minute before the deadline. It gets harder after July 31.”--Wittenmeyer
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Isn't he already a Steele?
Are you channeling PlayTwo now?
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Someone to be a poor man's Cishek after Cishek's arm falls off.
Steele as part of the Hamels deal would definitely suck, though I suspect there's a far better chance the Cubs pick up Hamels' 2019 option than most around here believe.
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http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/07/27/cubs-among-two-teams-showing-most-interest-thus-far-in-marlins-righty-brad-ziegler/
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Nothing done.
Just interest.
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You’re kidding...
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I see a lot of Brad Ziegler to the Cubs rumors on Twitter.
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Hopefully it isn't true, and the Rangers people are just trying to dig up somebody in the Cubs farm who might turn into a steal.
Yeah hopefully they’re rummaging around for the next Zack Godley and won’t wind up finding him.
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Isn't he already a Steele?
-
...
FWIW Lone Star Baseball seems to think the PTBNL is Justin Steele. I'd be pretty disappointed to give him up the the Rangers aren't really saving the Cubs a ton of money and Hamels is far from a sure thing.
Yeah, I'd be very disappointed if they're giving up a guy of his ceiling for 2 months of crummy Hamels. Especially after the seeming info last night that made it seem like the Cubs weren't really giving up anybody very meaningful.
After his successful rehab, high velocity recently, and excellent results thus far, I'd have Steele in my Cubs top 10. (That's not saying much, given the lack of competition.) But still, we've got so few with any degree of ceiling, I'd not like to give away one of the few who does, for a brief rental of a relatively washed up guy.
But, we overpay every July, so that would seem in keeping with how Theo operates. So it may not be implausible. Hopefully it isn't true, and the Rangers people are just trying to dig up somebody in the Cubs farm who might turn into a steal.
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3 straight NLCS isn't failing, being unlucky............
Lots of folks seem to forget that, even some who are old enough to remember the 50's thru the 70's....
Some Cub players have under performed based on their past accomplishments. Rizzo, Chatwood, Quintana, and Hendricks fall into that category. Others have not progressed as much as some might have hoped. Others have had health problems that have slowed them down. My view is that the under performers are likely to improve, in some cases markedly, in the second half. The inconsistency of the young players is likely to continue, but Happ, Russell, Almora, and Schwarber have all performed well overall and I doubt any of them has reached his peak. Injuries are impossible to project, but it seems likely that Bryant will come back strong, and CJ should be ready soon. No doubt, this Cub team should be in better position in the standings than it is, but somewhat underperforming in the first half is not that big a deal. They simply will need to perform closer to their talent level (and avoid bad luck) and they will win the Central, probably with ease.
This is the reason for the rebuilding strategy I explained (repeatedly) from the middle of 2006 thru 2007 -- because you can't be certain what you are going to get from any one player, or even two or three, you create a large pool of talent which will give you a large window of opportunity over an extended time. And that is exactly what the Theocracy has done.
If the news is bad on Darvish (I sure hope not) keep an eye on Cole Hamels as a potential name linked with the Cubs.
And it appears you nailed it.
I’m guessing you’re showing your true colors.
As shown so many times before.... the only question is why you would think there was any reason to "guess."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZhM6dPm5YQo
Not everyone said that (and he was at South Bend, not Des Moines). I saw some reports that he was sitting around 90 mph. For example:
Sahadev Sharma @sahadevsharma
He said it'd be up to front office and staff as to when he returns. Was throwing some 90-mph pitches we assumed were cutters but he said he didn't throw any and those were FBs.
In any case, the reason you've gotten criticized for your takes around here is because what you've said mostly amounts to "Asian pitchers get hurt more often" with no nuance. And now you're acting like Darvish has some kind of personality flaw that makes him lazy even though you have absolutely zero evidence for that. It's no wonder people think your motivations are based on something other than just performance on the field.
If your take had been "Darvish has thrown a lot of innings, has had injury problems already, and he's missed time almost every year since coming to MLB, so we shouldn't offer him a lot of money" instead of "Every Japanese player but Ichiro has flat out stole money and the pitchers usually don't come over here until their arm is about to fall off. Let somebody else get analized," maybe people would take you more seriously on this topic.
I think everyone realizes Dusty is serious. It is just that when offering opinions on non-Anglo players his opinions are, well, sometimes a bit tainted....
In my own viewing of the video posted here of Darvish in one of his South Bend games (his only SB game?), it appeared he was somewhat short-arming his pitches. I'm not familiar enough with him to know if that was normal for him even when healthy, and the camera angle was not the best, but that video made me wonder if there might be some elbow or forearm problem on the immediate horizon.
As far as the rich athlete concept goes I just think that's human nature.
You're gonna bust ass until you get paid and then you'd lose that fire because you did.
I'd do the same.
If anyone wanted an example of the psychological concept of projection, that post might serve as a prime example.
Maybe you would. Lots of guys, however, mess themselves up trying to hard to earn the contract that they don't (and I hate to use this) play within themselves. Lester and Heyward are a couple of examples, but there are plenty of others. I'm guessing Darvish is in that camp as well.
I suspect what you describe -- athletes trying their best to play thru injuries and injuring themselves even worse in the process -- is far more common than what Dusty described.
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2013-2014 his ERA was better that his FIP/xFIP
2015 he was just excellent, 3.23/2.90/3.01.
2016-2018 has been the real underperformance.
Forget about actual performance, and forget about the fact that this is a guy you have been arguing to get for years now, but just focus on the three time periods: 2013-2014 is time period A; 2015 is time period B; 2016-2018 is time period C.
It is now the middle of 2018.
Which one is most likely most predictive of future performance? A, B or C?
Hard to image how in abstraction you would weight A or B more heavily than C.
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No comment.
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I actually think that is a positive report.
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Gordon Wittenmyer @GDubCub 17m17 minutes ago
Darvish said he felt some pain early in today's 23-pitch pen session but adjusted delivery to more like he threw early in season and was fine. Stressed he's not concerned and expects one more pen before possible sim game.
Kelly Crull @Kelly_Crull 20m20 minutes ago
Darvish believes he took a positive step forward after throwing 23 pitches in today’s bulllpen. Made an adjustment in his take back & felt no pain. Is excited about throwing again soon.
In other words, his return is still very much up in the air.
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I guess you'd have to imagine the PTBNL would be better than Lacy. Hard to think Lacy would be the lead prospect in a deal like this, even with Hamels not pitching well and with us covering some salary.
Steele and Marquez are the only 2 lefties in the org that throw hard. I hate trading on of them.
By the way, I wonder what the point of this provision is? No matter how well Hamels pitches the rest of the year, the Cubs aren't likely paying him $20 million out of pocket next year, so the Rangers are stuck paying $8 million regardless.
About the only thing this accomplishes is takes away the Cubs' opportunity for it to essentially be a $14 million financial decision next year, which probably would be a feasible move for us if Hamels finished the season strong. Seems kind of like a scudzy move on the Rangers part, or perhaps Hamels' agent played a role in how this got structured.
That made me think that Steele couldn't be the return, because being able to get him for Chatwood's salaray would be a possible benefit. He might be cheaper on the open market though.
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Chicago Cubs @Cubs 23m23 minutes ago
The #Cubs today recalled RHP Alec Mills from @IowaCubs.
Because Hamels won't arrive in St. Louis until Saturday.
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I guess you'd have to imagine the PTBNL would be better than Lacy. Hard to think Lacy would be the lead prospect in a deal like this, even with Hamels not pitching well and with us covering some salary.
PTBNL in trades like this often are determined in part based on how well the named player or players do. Hamels does well, and TX picks from list A made up of a few decent prospects. Hamels stinks and they pick from list B which is made up of guys the Theocracy might be considering giving their releases to right now.
Appears to be little more than a salary dump, with Hamels not likely to produce anything more than league average pitching.... but even league average would be better than what they have been getting from the 5th spot and should help win a couple more games with the Cubs' lineup. Hamels is not really likely to play a role in the post season rotation, but he is insurance in case another starter is lost, and if he is just good enough as a starter to reduce wear on the bullpen, then could be of serious value during the playoffs.
Looks like a good move for both teams.
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If the Cubs decline his option the Rangers will pay his $6 million buy out. If the Cubs pick up his option they are responsible for the $6 million buy out.
By the way, I wonder what the point of this provision is? No matter how well Hamels pitches the rest of the year, the Cubs aren't likely paying him $20 million out of pocket next year, so the Rangers are stuck paying $8 million regardless.
About the only thing this accomplishes is takes away the Cubs' opportunity for it to essentially be a $14 million financial decision next year, which probably would be a feasible move for us if Hamels finished the season strong. Seems kind of like a scudzy move on the Rangers part, or perhaps Hamels' agent played a role in how this got structured.
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I guess you'd have to imagine the PTBNL would be better than Lacy. Hard to think Lacy would be the lead prospect in a deal like this, even with Hamels not pitching well and with us covering some salary.
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FWIW Lone Star Baseball seems to think the PTBNL is Justin Steele. I'd be pretty disappointed to give him up the the Rangers aren't really saving the Cubs a ton of money and Hamels is far from a sure thing.
That would be disappointing. There have been very few bright spots on the farm this year, but Steele looking good in his rehab is one of them.
Officially anyway, the PTBNL will come from a predetermined list of pitchers and position players.
Jeff Wilson
Verified account
@JeffWilson_FWST
2h2 hours ago
#Rangers will select player to be named in Cole Hamels trade in a few weeks from a predetermined list of minor-leaguers, Jon Daniels said. List includes pitchers and position players.
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Lester has both 34 and 35?
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Cole Hamels has always worn #35. That has been Lester Strode's number since 2007.
Lester better ask for something good in return then.
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Cole Hamels has always worn #35. That has been Lester Strode's number since 2007.
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The Rangers are paying $2 million of his salary. If the Cubs decline his option the Rangers will pay his $6 million buy out. If the Cubs pick up his option they are responsible for the $6 million buy out.
FWIW Lone Star Baseball seems to think the PTBNL is Justin Steele. I'd be pretty disappointed to give him up the the Rangers aren't really saving the Cubs a ton of money and Hamels is far from a sure thing.
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Heh. If I remember correctly, it was the Rangers who outbid us for him back when. Is that right?
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According to Mooney Cubs are only responsible for $5 million of Hamels contract. Hard to believe.
5 of 14.4
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According to Mooney Cubs are only responsible for $5 million of Hamels contract. Hard to believe.
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Butler, Lacy, and a PTBNL...
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THe Hamels deal is official. Eddie Butler is also going to Texas.
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I’m more worried about the inning counts of the multiple bullpen guys who risk getting worn out due to Chatwood’s starts.
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I think they're worried about Montgomery's innings and want to keep him as fresh as possible for the postseason.
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What a horrible move that would be.
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My guess is that the Cubs stick with Chatwood in the rotation for now, moving Montgomery into his usual relief/spot starter role. When Darvish returns, they might go with a 6-man rotation until/unless the NL Central race is tight enough that they can't afford Chatwood starts.
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Wow, that is surprising. I can only recall Contreras leaping out of his shoes to try and stop the ball.
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It’s weird, bases loaded has actually been the split that has been most effective. No walks, only a .486 ops against, and a good strikeout rate. It’s only 15 at bats so it means nothing but it’s not what I would have expected given his generally terrible performance.
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The only thing Chatwood is good for at this time is avoiding the embarrassment of having to pitch regulars like Rizzo and Caratini. I think what concerns me most is that when he NEEDS to throw a strike, he cannot. If the bases are loaded and the count is 3-2, you know the pitch is going to the backstop. That's almost a gip issue. The more pressure, the worse he does. An MLB pitcher can't yield to pressure that way. I was all for him coming to the Cubs, but if they DFA'd him right now, what team would inquire about him?
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Chatwood should absolutely go to the pen. Not not is he terrible at the moment, but the toll his starts take on the pen is substantial. But the Cubs may justify sending Montgomery on the grounds that they don’t want 4 lefties in the rotation, or they want to limit Monty’s innings. It would be a mistake but it could happen.
It’s pretty clear that whatever is messing with Chatwood’s mechanics and psychology can’t be fixed while he’s actively in the rotation. Maybe a stint of downtime can reset him or something - it’s a better option than continuing what’s obviously not working.
In any event, the Hamels trade itself is hard not to like. By all accounts he’s a good guy, he has postseason experience, and there’s no indication his arm is shot. Maybe he can get back to where he was a couple of years ago, maybe not, but the cost is bearable to find out.
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Montgomery's starts prior to the last one were pretty pedestrian. It wouldn't surprise me if it's Monty that goes back to the pen. Maybe to rest him a bit.
It's not what I would do, but it wouldn't surprise me.
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Slightly interesting. Jeff Wilson is reporting the trade is Lacy+another pitcher+PTBNL. The other pitcher is not a prospect and he isn’t sure if that means a MLB Cub player or a minor league throw in.
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A six man rotation could be possible to give everybody some extra rest with a whole bunch of games in a row happening.
Chatwood in a 1 inning role would be kind interesting. A little more velocity of the fastball and the walks aren’t as big of a deal in short stint.
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At least for now assuming Chatwood goes to the pen, four of the five starting pitchers for the Cubs are LHP.
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Hamels ERA >10 over last five starts.
Gotta be overdue for a run of excellent ones, yes?
Will be interesting to see what Maddon does with the staff. All of us fans assume it will mean Chatwood goes to relief, and I assume that's true. But, sometimes Maddon has other ideas? May want to give Montgomery some skips, and maybe Hendricks and lester too. So it wouldn't totally shock me to see them kind of mix-and-match for a while, and see Chatwood get some more starts.
I'll also be curious to see how Chatwood does in relief. He is what he is, so hard to imagine a change in role giving him any more clue where his fastball might go. But I might rather have him trying to pick up some innings rather than Butler or Farrell.
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https://www.instagram.com/p/BluFXaAAfbT/?hl=en&taken-by=darvishsefat11
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Ah, found it...
http://www.baseballbytheyard.com/joe-maddens-stages-of-a-ball-player/
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Craig and I have often pointed out that some players are given great opportunities and fail to take advantage while other players make an impact. Chatwood is one of these, Bote the other.
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Hamels getting rid of HR is something that could actually happen. Chatwood’s road splits were driven almost all by BABIP being really low.
Best case is he is a 3.5-4.25 ERA guy. Worst case is he is still better than Chatwood.
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Let's hope Hamels finds some of his old form. I'm hesitant to get on the home/road split bandwagon; that was supposed to work for Chatwood after leaving Coors as well.
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Lacy and a PTBNL.
Longenhagen tweeted Lacy’s velocity. 88-90 T 92.
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Getting Rosario off the roster is probably a good thing. He's a time bomb.
First get rid of the ones who have stopped ticking and have gone off.
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Hamels 2018 stats away from home: 55.1 IP, 46 H, 22 BB, 61 SO, Opp BA .222, Opp OPS .697, 2.93 ERA, 1.229 WHIP.
I like this acquisition very much.
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Getting Rosario off the roster is probably a good thing. He's a time bomb.
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I think the default transaction would be to option the guy with options remaining and keep everybody in the organization.
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Unless the Cubs decide to give up on and release Duensing (or DL somebody), Rosario is going to bite the dust with the Hamels acquisition.
Eddie Butler?
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Unless the Cubs decide to give up on and release Duensing (or DL somebody), Rosario is going to bite the dust with the Hamels acquisition.
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I believe the buyout is included in the $14 million he is owed this year and the rumor is the Cubs are on the hook for $4 million total.
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Hamels has $20M contract for next year.
$6M buyout.
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Free. Except for the money and minor league players.
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So we got Hamels for free.
Ill take it.
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Wow, if the Cubs were willing to expose their big bullets like DJ Wilson and Rollie Lacy, they must be all in and expecting Texas to pick up most of the salary, eh? :):)
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Hopefully Cole Hamels will be this year‘s version of Justin Verlander. That’s not too much to hope for, is it?
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Hamels to Cubs is done.
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Seems like Hamels will be traded tonight:
Mark Feinsand @Feinsand
Source says to “expect a resolution soon” on the Hamels front.
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DJ Wilson was activated from the DL and not playing either.
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ESPN Chicago guys seem to think this will happen.
Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs
Cubs made a "strong push" for Hamels just today hence all the chatter about him. And it is indeed getting close, per source and other reports. Btw, Jesse Chavez likened pitching in Texas to pitching in Cincinnati. Ball flies. Thinks he'll be just fine once he gets out of there.
David Kaplan @thekapman
The Cubs are closing in on a deal for Cole Hamels of the Texas Rangers. It is not yet done but it is progressing that way. He will still have to pass a physical as well. @ESPNChiCubs Is also on this story follow him as well for updates. @Joelsherman1 first on this.
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Let speculation run wild:
Myrtle Beach Pelicans
@Pelicanbaseball @Pelicanbaseball
LINEUP CHANGE: @MannyRondon47 will make the start in today's game instead of Rollie Lacy.
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The Phillies might also be in on Hamels.
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Bote needs to be in the lineup pretty much every day until Bryant comes back so the Cubs can really see what they have. If he had a strong showing the rest of the way in 100-150 PAs, that opens up a lot of options in the offseason.
He also seems like a nice guy to try out in the leadoff spot if the Cubs decide to move Rizzo back down a spot or two. He gets on base and runs the bases well, so he has the qualities you want in a leadoff guy.
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I'd take Diekman in a heartbeat if he's basically a throw-in. Hard to hit and throws hard. Yeah his has control issues but Duensing is dead weight at this point, so why not add Diekman to the mix as a viable option.
If Diekman is just a throw-in who replaces Duensing on the roster, then that's fine, it's a slight improvement. But my concern is that if they get Diekman, then they'll consider their deadline work done and they won't continue to pursue another better reliever. Whether they get Diekman or not, they still would benefit from adding one more good reliever.
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I think the urgency of the Cubs pitching dilemma means they almost have to land Hamels even if they have to give up a half decent prospect to do so, given that there are really no other obvious options. The entire staff is a dumpster fire if the bullpen implodes, which is almost inevitable given how many guys have overperformed career norms and overwork.
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Looks like it's down to the Cubs vs. the Braves for Hamels.
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Like Britton before him, Diekman has the same problem as everyone else on this Cubs staff--he just doesn't throw enough strikes.
They need to prioritize adding a starter and a reliever who throw strikes. Handedness doesn't matter as long as they don't have severe splits.
I'd take Diekman in a heartbeat if he's basically a throw-in. Hard to hit and throws hard. Yeah his has control issues but Duensing is dead weight at this point, so why not add Diekman to the mix as a viable option.
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Joel Sherman @Joelsherman1
Hearing #Cubs are making inroads to try to land Cole Hamels from the #Rangers
Hopefully getting out of Arlington will fix him.
He's not really broken, unless you consider a MIRP broken.
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Heyman joins in and says Hamels is a possibility:
Jon Heyman @JonHeyman
Cubs are indeed talking to the rangers about Cole Hamels. Hear it has a decent chance. Rangers would have to cover a portion of the $14M to go. Cubs are on Happ's small pre-approved. he's pitched very well there (including no-hitter). @Joelsherman1 1st mentioned possibility
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Davep's grandmother would be exciting if she was replacing Chatwood.
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__________ is exciting, especially if he replaces Chatwood.
I dont think it matters what the _______ is at this point.
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Hamels is exciting, especially if he replaces Chatwood.
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Bowden also thinks Hamels to Cubs might happen, though there's probably about a 70% chance his "source" is Joel Sherman's Twitter account.
Jim Bowden @JimBowdenGM
#Cubs in strong pursuit to land Cole Hamels from #Rangers for lower level prospects according to source.
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Glad they got Chavez. Now add 2 more like him.
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High my name is Jessie Chavez...........
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Like Britton before him, Diekman has the same problem as everyone else on this Cubs staff--he just doesn't throw enough strikes.
They need to prioritize adding a starter and a reliever who throw strikes. Handedness doesn't matter as long as they don't have severe splits.
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Some Twitter chatter about Diekman possibly being in a Hamels deal as well...
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Secondary prospects could very well describe the Cubs entire system.
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Joel Sherman @Joelsherman1
Between rest of salary this yr plus buyout on 2019 option, Hamels owed roughly $14.2M. Hear that if deal with #Cubs goes thru they will pick up about $4M and give up secondary prospects. But NO deal is in place yet, Cubs just more involved than other suitors.
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Joel Sherman @Joelsherman1
Hearing #Cubs are making inroads to try to land Cole Hamels from the #Rangers
Hopefully getting out of Arlington will fix him.
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Bryant getting another MRI..........
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Bryant back to the DL, Bote up.
I need a vacation. I saw this post and went to CBS to make the changes. I need sleep.
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I wonder how expensive Zack Wheeler would be? I've always liked his stuff. His numbers aren't great but he might be a nice change of scenery guy