Bleacher Bums Forum
General Category => Archives => Topic started by: mO on October 02, 2020, 04:41:52 pm
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Andrew Romine called it a career today.
Hope his last season was fun...
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Harold Ramirez is Super-Two arb eligible by six days to spare.
Rowan Wick misses Super-Two, falling two days short.
Assuming no pertinent change in new cba.
Will be interesting to see whether or not Cubs non-tender Ramirez and try to sign him to non-roster minor league deal.
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It is almost like the Cubs want pitch to contact pitchers. I think that makes some sense when you have Bryant/Baez/Hoerner/Rizzo in the infield. When you are looking at Wisdom/Hoerner/Madrigal/Swindel I kinda question that.
It's not like Stroman is totally unable to miss bats or a soft-tosser on the Hendricks/Miley level. But given his age/velocity decline and what he's likely to cost, I would certainly rather have Gray (Jon - though also Sonny assuming he's a straight salary dump).
And let's be honest - there's little chance the Cubs will sign Stroman. He'll go to a big-market club.
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I’ll be surprised if Hoerner is opening day SS. Think Cubs will bring someone in, even if not one of the top guys——though could be a notable guy.
Wisdom played a good defensive 3B this season——glove-wise probably better than the 3B Bryant of recent times. Let’s see if Wisdom can do it again defensively. Maybe he won’t.
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If they spend the money on Stroman, they're not going to have a Wisdom/Hoerner/Madrigal/Swindel infield. They'd sign one of the shortstops, and they'll find a better defensive player at one of the corners.
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It is almost like the Cubs want pitch to contact pitchers. I think that makes some sense when you have Bryant/Baez/Hoerner/Rizzo in the infield. When you are looking at Wisdom/Hoerner/Madrigal/Swindel I kinda question that.
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timdierkes @timdierkes
Sources say the Red Sox, Giants, Cubs, Mets, and Angels are interested in free agent righty Marcus Stroman.
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(https://preview.redd.it/20d086k705cy.jpg?auto=webp&s=d4cf846e9198582b1fa6751776e5afd58b52ff22)
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That a premier franchise would ever be in this situation is an extraordinary indictment of management. Cubs should *always* be a destination players want to play. The history, the brand, the nationwide fan base, Wrigley field, the new facilities, the city of Chicago, the neighborhood of Wrigleyville, the road attendance, the opportunity to be the face of one of the most iconic teams in US sports. I could go on and on.
Just about everything you just said above has been true since the early 1980s when WGN became a cable superstation.
Let us recall that none of the above led to sustained winning until the extraordinarily indicted current management came along, got Cubs into the post-season 5 out of the previous 6 seasons prior to 2021, and won a World Series.
If the current owners are to be indicted, the previous ones maybe should have gone to the electric chair.
Even the Yankees and Dodgers had bad periods in the years since WGN. Dodgers finished 58 games out of first place over two consecutive seasons in early 90s.
Cubs had a really good run in recent years and, like just about every single franchise in MLB at one time or other in recent years, now faces a rebuild. And, it’s, what, one month into the off-season? Let’s see what happens.
In any case, way more important than anything happening this off-season is what happens with player development of the Cubs low-level prospects coming along. Not going to get bent out of shape because Matz bypassed Cubs (and at least six other teams).
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Yep, this exactly. I don't expect them to go all-out this winter on FA signings. But to balk at the opportunity to acquire a generational talent like Seager or Correa (28 and 27 years old, respectively) due to a "rebuild" is to miss the forest for the trees.
And it's one thing to compete for those players but lose in the end. It's another to take a pass at the chance all together. It seems the latter is the front office's inclination, and that is unacceptable in my view.
Both guys have a fairly extensive injury history. This team isn't competing in a serious way until 2024 at least. Signing Seagar or Correa doesn't change that, nor does it change the fact that the Cubs are in this position because they are cheap either.
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I understand this thinking Jeff, and it may be wise.
But I wonder if you don't maybe need to build more skeleton, even if some bones are non-elite? My "skeleton" view is that FA's want to join a team that has enough skeleton to give it a realistic chance to win, if that player signs and presumably improves it further. Who wants to join a team that's likely to lose 90 games a year for the next two seasons?
I'm not sure we've got enough bones on the skeleton yet.
If we could pick up one or two via FA, even if they aren't stars, it could help?
I think this is the reality the club has put itself in. The Cubs are not a desirable FA destination - the way things went down with the last group doesn't play well, the on-field product sucks, and they don't have a respected manager in place as a draw. The only way the Cubs are going to sign anybody other clubs actually want is to significantly outbid them. And does anyone see this front office and ownership group doing that?
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Other than the small portion of players/wives with family in the Midwest, the only reason a good free agent should choose the Cubs is if the Cubs significantly outbid the market.
That a premier franchise would ever be in this situation is an extraordinary indictment of management. Cubs should *always* be a destination players want to play. The history, the brand, the nationwide fan base, Wrigley field, the new facilities, the city of Chicago, the neighborhood of Wrigleyville, the road attendance, the opportunity to be the face of one of the most iconic teams in US sports. I could go on and on.
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I understand. I think the Cubs are in an awkward position, brought on by pretty much every member of "the core" greatly regressing. I feel like they kind of have to do this "reboot".
I want them to spend, but I really don't want them to muddle through the broad middle of free agency. I want Corey Seager and then a bunch of bargain shopping. A couple of shrewd trades, if they can manage something.
Yep, this exactly. I don't expect them to go all-out this winter on FA signings. But to balk at the opportunity to acquire a generational talent like Seager or Correa (28 and 27 years old, respectively) due to a "rebuild" is to miss the forest for the trees.
And it's one thing to compete for those players but lose in the end. It's another to take a pass at the chance all together. It seems the latter is the front office's inclination, and that is unacceptable in my view.
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...I want them to spend, but I really don't want them to muddle through the broad middle of free agency. I want Corey Seager and then a bunch of bargain shopping. A couple of shrewd trades, if they can manage something.
I understand this thinking Jeff, and it may be wise.
But I wonder if you don't maybe need to build more skeleton, even if some bones are non-elite? My "skeleton" view is that FA's want to join a team that has enough skeleton to give it a realistic chance to win, if that player signs and presumably improves it further. Who wants to join a team that's likely to lose 90 games a year for the next two seasons?
I'm not sure we've got enough bones on the skeleton yet.
If we could pick up one or two via FA, even if they aren't stars, it could help?
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In most cases involving good players, I assume the Cubs will need to very significantly over-bid the market in order to persuade players to choose us. At this point in time. Free agents have choice, and most appreciate winning.
DeSclafini had good coaching and a great experience on a terrific team in San Fran. After being on bad Reds teams for a career, he enjoyed the fun of a 100-win team. Offers being moderately close, why would he choose a Cubs offer?
Matz has had some un-fun seasons with lousy Mets, and got to enjoy the better pleasures of a 91-win team in Toronto. Bids being comparable, which does Matz choose between the 90-win Cardinals and the 71-win Cubs? Plus his wife is from the south with a career in Nashville. Bids being comparable, which would she choose?
Other than the small portion of players/wives with family in the Midwest, the only reason a good free agent should choose the Cubs is if the Cubs significantly outbid the market. Otherwise all ties work against us.
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I understand. I think the Cubs are in an awkward position, brought on by pretty much every member of "the core" greatly regressing. I feel like they kind of have to do this "reboot".
I want them to spend, but I really don't want them to muddle through the broad middle of free agency. I want Corey Seager and then a bunch of bargain shopping. A couple of shrewd trades, if they can manage something.
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Absolutely fair point, Jeff, and I hope to be wrong.
I guess I'm observing the pattern of the past few years, believe the impending lockout provides Cub ownership a convenient excuse for not doing anything, and perceive an opportunity to sign an impact position player in this FA market, the likes of which we may not see again in the next few years.
Bottom line: it's embarrassing that an org like the Cubs should be relegated to kick-the-tire and LIAB signings, which has been our MO for a few years now.
Love what's happening with the pitch lab stuff, believe in our high-ceiling minor league approach, but want to see more spend at the major league level, and am fed up with the excuses of the past few years.
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tico, your point may indeed be a valid one, but using extensions for top flight assets like Franco and Alcantara as examples to bolster your argument doesn't work too well. Locking up guys like that is quite different from choosing not to give Steven Matz a fifth year or an extra ten million over four or whatever.
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Rays committing 9 figures to Franco. Marlins locking up Alcantara. Poorest teams in baseball with money to spend.
But the Cubs? We're not going to do anything before the lockout, and then after the lockout, Hoyer will scramble to scoop up all the leftovers, talking about "value".
Cubs' ownership is increasingly a joke. This is one of the most valuable franchises in all of sports, and the Ricketts' have *already* made a KILLING on their investment in the club. But we're going to cry poor. Whatever goodwill ownership won in 2016 is fully and completely used up in my book.
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Matz to the Cardinals. 4 years, 11 per year plus potential bonus up to one million per year. Possibly a two million dollar signing bonus, but the report I read was rather vague about that.
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I’ve heard of shortlinks but that’s ridiculous.
No idea what you mean. ;)
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I’ve heard of shortlinks but that’s ridiculous.
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Kinda fun article on Frank the Tank.
https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/how-frank-schwindel-was-able-to-reach-new-heights-with-cubs-in-2021/
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ArizonaPhil thought that the Cubs would take a couple of Cleveland players on waivers with the intention of outrighting them 7 days later, to see if they can get them throug waivers.
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Disappointing that Harold Ramirez taking up a 40-man spot with all the other Cubs needs to be filled.
Maybe they’ll try to get him thru waivers at some point.
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Cubs acquire a 5th outfielder candidate:
Chicago Cubs @Cubs
The #Cubs today acquired OF Harold Ramirez from the Cleveland Guardians for a cash consideration.
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I got 59 of them before I had to look people up; I went through the roster in numerical order, which made it easier (no #1; #2 is Hoerner, #3 is manager Ross, #4 was Sogard and then Fargas, etc.)
I completely forgot about Davies when I got to number 27 ("Addison Russell was gone before the season started, right?") and got a couple for free because you can type just last names, and we had two Thompsons, only one of whom I remembered (Trayce).
Had completely forgotten about Jewell and Kohl Stewart; couldn't spell the name of one of our last-week callups (Langerhans? Longenhagen?)
There were a couple of guys whom I thought had played for us this year, but they hadn't: Steven Souza Jr., Scott Norwood (actually his name is James), and Robel Garcia.
Somebody once made a quiz like that for the 2010-2014 rebuilding era. There were a *lot* of forgettable names on that one.
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Only 52/69 before I needed some help.
This exercise always reminds me just how long a baseball season is. Ildemaro Vargas? Seems like a lifetime ago.
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Waste part of your life. Take the quiz.
https://www.sporcle.com/games/MLBastian/2021-cubs-most-players-used-in-mlb-history
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It is intriguing that the Cubs offense after the trades was significantly better than it was before. Something that I doubt anyone expected. While it was only two months, that is not an insignificant period.
Reb noted that some of that was Ian Happ’s performance after during that period, vs. his performance before. But three of the replacements' relative performance was also pretty impressive. Here is a list of the players with the highest OPS for the season, with at least 200 ABs (replacements in bold).
#1 Schwindel 1.002 (222 AB)
#2 Bryant .861 (326 AB)
#3 – tie Wisdom .823 (338 AB)
– tie Ortega .823 (296 AB)
#5 Rizzo .792 (413 AB)
#6 Baez .775 (335 AB)
#7 Happ .757 (465 AB) (but .856 in Aug, 1.020 in Sept, 198 combined AB)
#8 Duffy .738 (289 AB)
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10/05/21 Chicago Cubs recalled SS Christopher Morel from Iowa Cubs.
10/05/21 Chicago Cubs recalled LF Alexander Canario from South Bend Cubs.
10/05/21 C Austin Romine elected free agency.
10/05/21 Chicago Cubs activated RHP Keegan Thompson from the 10-day injured list.
10/05/21 Chicago Cubs recalled LHP Brailyn Marquez from Tennessee Smokies.
10/05/21 Chicago Cubs activated RF Jason Heyward from the 10-day injured list.
10/05/21 Chicago Cubs recalled RHP Alexander Vizcaino from South Bend Cubs.
10/05/21 Chicago Cubs recalled RHP Anderson Espinoza from Tennessee Smokies.
10/05/21 Chicago Cubs activated C Robinson Chirinos from the 10-day injured list.
10/05/21 Chicago Cubs activated RHP Manuel Rodriguez from the 10-day injured list.
10/05/21 Chicago Cubs recalled C Miguel Amaya from Tennessee Smokies.
10/05/21 Chicago Cubs activated C Willson Contreras from the 10-day injured list.
10/05/21 Chicago Cubs activated 2B Nico Hoerner from the 10-day injured list.
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The Cubs have so many holes to fill, I can't imagine that they will go looking for a first baseman. My only fear is that when he leaves his hot streak, exactly how cold he will be. However, his contact rate in the minors seems to indicate that cold periods shouldn't be Happ-similar.
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I’m going to be sad if the Sultan of Schwin isn’t already guaranteed a spot in the starting lineup next season.
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Yeah, that’s basically Happ, Schwindel, and Duffy—-all hit a ton after the deadline.
Duffy in September/Oct: .347-396-541 slash line in over 100 PAs.
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Stranger than fiction.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FA2_1gUXsAg2Slr?format=jpg&name=medium)
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https://www.sporcle.com/games/tnoe000/the-2021-cubs
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The interesting thing is that a case could be made that they missed Kimbrel, Chaffin and Tepara more than Baez, Rizzo and Bryant. That is certainly only a one year event.
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Cubs before and after the trade deadline
50-54
21-37
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Alec Mills tied for 17th best (with Brandon Woodruff) in the majors for lowest barrel % per PA against.
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Tyler Payne gets #96. Worn previously by Bill Voiselle (1956) and Mike Brumley (2014)
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Jordan Bastian
Willson Contreras (right hip inflammation) to 10-day IL. C Tyler Payne selected from Triple-A. 1B Alfonso Rivas transferred to 60-day.
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Jordan Bastian
• RHP Tommy Nance to IL, with no specifics give. Joins Bote, Romine, Wisdom and Martini (all off 40-man as result)
• RHP Joe Biagini selected from AAA Iowa
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I have received emails and a phone call from the Cubs informing me that I will probably be eligible to obtain season tickets this fall. A year ago, my recollection is that there were tens of thousands of people ahead of me on the wait list.
I went from about #65,000 on the list a year or so ago to eligible for tickets. I passed and I’d be really surprised if I ever considered getting tickets for this team again. I live a few minutes walk from Wrigley and only went to four innings on opening day. And, never even considered going back again. Ive generally lost interest in all sports (except for golf) but my feelings about the cubs are really tainted by the owners and I’m not sure I’ll ever really like them as much as I once did.
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Cubs are offering free tkts to 2022 Opening Day to anybody who can recite the entire Cubs current active roster without looking it up.
I have received emails and a phone call from the Cubs informing me that I will probably be eligible to obtain season tickets this fall. A year ago, my recollection is that there were tens of thousands of people ahead of me on the wait list.
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Bote left last night's game with a bum shoulder...
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Another first - Tyler Ladendorf gets #84
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Bote was one of the openly unvaccinated players earlier this year.
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Cubs are offering free tkts to 2022 Opening Day to anybody who can recite the entire Cubs current active roster without looking it up.
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Jordan Bastian
And another one…
• David Bote to the injured list (no reason given
• Tyler Ladendorf selected from AAA
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Jordan Bastian
Cubs moves:
• SS Nico Hoerner 10-day IL (right oblique tightness, retroactive to 9/28)
• RHP Cory Abbott recalled from Triple-A, will start tonight
• OF Nick Martini placed on IL (no specifics given)
• OF Johneshwy Fargas selected from Triple-A
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Mekkes had something in the 80s in spring training; hopefully he has something more normal but I'm not confident.
We have many normal-looking numbers left, vacated by all the players we've traded away. Give them out. Somehow we, and most teams, managed it for decades until corona came along.
The way things are going, guys like this will be on the field soon enough:
(https://number.ismcdn.jp/mwimgs/b/4/350/img_b4d6e9cf649ac8eba2714867b452c147129784.jpg)
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Gonna have to dig into the Chico’s Bail Bonds jerseys at this rate.
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Erick Castillo will be the first Cubs to wear #87.
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Jordan Bastian
Taxi squad: C Tyler Payne, INF Tyler Ladendorf, INF Jared Young, RHP Dakota Mekkes, LHP Joe Biagini
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This is Castillo's 10th season in the Cubs organization. He's hit a grand total of 6 home runs over 1,261 PA's.
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Jordan Bastian
Cubs select Erick Castillo from AAA Iowa. Other players here are on taxi squad group.
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After Wisdom was sent to the IL with no specified reason yesterday, Romine is going to the IL today. Seems like they probably have a COVID outbreak.
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If Marlins win their final four games and Cubs lose final four games, Cubs would have the #6 pick.
One of those two things is very unlikely to happen.
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Best #7 picks of all time:
Frank Thomas
Clayton Kershaw
Troy Tulowitzki
Nick Markakis
Aaron Nola
Prince Fielder
Trot Nixon
The next Big Hurt or Kersh would be nifty, thanks.
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So it appears our magic number is down to one for the 7th pick in the draft…one more loss, or one Twins win, and we pick 7th.
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Trent Giambrone will be the first Cub to have #85.
Yeah, but not the first to be 86ed.
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Trent Giambrone will be the first Cub to have #85.
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Gordon Wittenmyer
Wisdom to IL with no injury distinction listed by team.
That often signifies COVID but team not saying. Players and coaches wearing masks on field during pregame work. Not the norm in recent weeks/months.
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Jordan Bastian
Cubs place Patrick Wisdom on injured list (no injury listed by team). INF Trent Giambrone selected from Triple-A Iowa.
The 40-man roster spot opened with Wisdom to general IL (not 10-day).
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I wonder if they have a deal in place with him to stay in the org as a coach, or in some other role, and they're doing this as a good-faith gesture...
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Reports that Cubs are calling up Trent Giambrone for the final five games.
That’s a nice gesture to get this guy into a few big league games. Career .218 hitter at AAA level.
I follow this page on Facebook called "Called Up", which has accounts from random players on what it was like when they were first called up to the majors. Those are really cool stories to get read, especially from some of the fringy guys who weren't expecting it at all. I bet Giambrone was pretty blown away when he got the phone call after the season he had. Like you said, a pretty cool gesture by the Cubs.
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Reports that Cubs are calling up Trent Giambrone for the final five games.
That’s a nice gesture to get this guy into a few big league games. Career .218 hitter at AAA level.
If memory serves me correctly, Giambrone would become the 65th player used by the Cubs in 2021. The MLB record is 67, set by the 2019 Mariners.
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Reports that Cubs are calling up Trent Giambrone for the final five games.
That’s a nice gesture to get this guy into a few big league games. Career .218 hitter at AAA level.
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Interesting point re Fister, Deeg. I remember he was a huge guy, but didn't throw hard by MLB standards.
He had a couple good seasons in his late 20s and, in 2014, he had his best year at age 30. He had a REALLY good year - 2.41 ERA in 164 IP, 1.08 WHIP, 16-6 record. The next year his ERA was 4.19 and it kept going up after that until he was out of the game 3-4 years later.
Sure hope that's not what we're seeing with Hendricks, but who knows. Might be. He's a really smart guy, who works hard on his mechanics. At some point for every pitcher, even solid mechanics can't overcome Father Time.
Fister's age 27-30 (2011-14) seasons were very impressive - and the best of them was the last, 2014, where he had the lowest velocity of those 4 years (87.9). His velocity was actually above that in his final two seasons, and he made 32 starts in 2016 as a 32 year-old. Whether the flexor problem which caused him to miss some starts in 2015 contributed to his downfall, who knows - he never had surgery and came back from the DL, never missed significant time again, and wound up throwing harder then he did at his statistical best.
The salient point is, with soft-tossing RHP there's basically no margin for error. It has to be all be working or the results can turn ugly pretty fast. Whether Hendricks is in a blip or the far side of the hill, only time will tell.
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Interesting point re Fister, Deeg. I remember he was a huge guy, but didn't throw hard by MLB standards.
He had a couple good seasons in his late 20s and, in 2014, he had his best year at age 30. He had a REALLY good year - 2.41 ERA in 164 IP, 1.08 WHIP, 16-6 record. The next year his ERA was 4.19 and it kept going up after that until he was out of the game 3-4 years later.
Sure hope that's not what we're seeing with Hendricks, but who knows. Might be. He's a really smart guy, who works hard on his mechanics. At some point for every pitcher, even solid mechanics can't overcome Father Time.
Fister’s decline was mostly injury related. So, unless Hendricks is hurt to the extent he’ll never recover, Fister is not really a comp.
In 2015 with the Nats, Fister injured his forearm. His velocity dropped three ticks from a couple years earlier and, even worse, the forearm problems affected his command.
Astros took a chance on him in 2016 on a one-year deal. I recall that, at the time, I thought it was a good risk but hard to know if a pitcher’s arm is going to be a problem going forward.
In Fister’s case, his command never returned and seems like he never fully recovered physically. He muddled through for a few seasons but was never as sharp.
Hard to know if Hendricks is injured or not but seems like there would be some kind of hint about that from the beat writers, if that was the case. So, at this point, it’s just a question mark.
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Jordan Bastian notes that after a 3.68 ERA in his first 13 starts this season, Mills has thrown to a 7.82 ERA in his five September starts.
Month ago, seemed like Mills was almost a lock for back end of 2022 rotation, but perhaps not necessarily so now.
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Interesting point re Fister, Deeg. I remember he was a huge guy, but didn't throw hard by MLB standards.
He had a couple good seasons in his late 20s and, in 2014, he had his best year at age 30. He had a REALLY good year - 2.41 ERA in 164 IP, 1.08 WHIP, 16-6 record. The next year his ERA was 4.19 and it kept going up after that until he was out of the game 3-4 years later.
Sure hope that's not what we're seeing with Hendricks, but who knows. Might be. He's a really smart guy, who works hard on his mechanics. At some point for every pitcher, even solid mechanics can't overcome Father Time.
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Jordan Bastian
Willson Contreras also dealing with wrist soreness, but not believed to be serious. Ross said WC is expected to catch/start on Wednesday.
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Taylor McGregor
#Cubs place Keegan Thompson on 10-day IL, retro to 9/27 with right shoulder inflammation. Recall Jason Adam from Triple-A.
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Gordon Wittenmyer
Keegan Thompson (shoulder soreness) shut down for final week.
Heyward saw a specialist in Pittsburgh today for concussion symptoms.
And he’s officially shut down for final week of season.
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Anyone remember Doug Fister? Heck of a pitcher - for a while. Sometimes when these soft-tossing command guys lose it, it happens quickly. With him it really started at age 31.
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Thanks, reb, helpful. Kyle's season HR rate is 1.6. In his previous 7 seasons, it's ranged within the 0.4-1.1 range.
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Hendricks HR rate actually is lower 2nd half than pre-break, but 31 homers overall on the season.
2nd half, more walks, higher BABIP.
Command poor compared to typical Hendricks, obviously.
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How Hendricks for HR's over a time frame like that? He's really unleashed the HR-faucet, too.
Before the season, there were some cool stories about how seam-shifted-wake works and can be effective, and I vaguely think I recall that Hendricks, Davies, Mills, and Trevor Williams were all supposed to be guys who might make that work for them and be much better pitchers than their velocity might anticipate.
I wonder if that might still be entirely true. But I also wonder whether perhaps with the lower-velocity seam-shifted-wake game, that like so many other pitches it works well when it's sharp; but perhaps the vulnerability when it isn't executed is acute?
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A lot of homers.
Jordan Bastian
@MLBastian
Dating back to July 28, Cubs starter Zach Davies has a 9.13 ERA with a 1.85 WHIP. The righty has allowed 16 homers in 45.1 IP.
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Being very active might be getting the fodder nobody else wanted two days before opening day.
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Hoyer says the Cubs plan to be "really active" in free agency, although there's no telling what that means other than we have a lot of holes to fill.
Also, David Ross will likely get a contract extension. Hoyer loves working with him, and he thinks Ross has a chance to be "special" at his job.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/32270981/chicago-cubs-plan-really-active-free-agency-says-team-president-jed-hoyer
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Wasn't Jason Adam's injury so serious that people were saying he'd never play again?
It would be great for him to make an appearance before the end of the season and pitch well.
Adam pitched this afternoon in game one and stuck out Arenado, Carpenter, DeJong—-all three batters faced. Averaged 94 on 4-seamer and three swinging strikes in 15 pitches.
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Wasn't Jason Adam's injury so serious that people were saying he'd never play again?
It would be great for him to make an appearance before the end of the season and pitch well.
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Jordan Bastian
Cubs moves this morning…
• C Robinson Chirinos 10-day IL (retro to Thursday) with left oblique strain.
• OF Greg Deichmann recalled from Triple-A Iowa.
• RHP Jason Adam selected from Triple-A. Optioned to Iowa, but then recalled as 29th man for today’s twin bill.
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Jordan Bastian
Cubs: RHP Dillon Maples has cleared waivers. Sent outright to Triple-A Iowa.
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From Sahadev’s latest…
........and it’s not out of the question that the offense is solid next year.[/i]
Hoping that Cubs brass not buying into that this off-season.
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From Sahadev’s latest…
The offense as a whole over the last 30 days hasn’t been bad. They have a non-pitcher 106 wRC+, 11th in baseball, during that span, and it’s not out of the question that the offense is solid next year.
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Let's keep a good thought.
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Point well taken, Jeff, incremental improvements. For velocity, if pitch lab can boost a 90-93 guy to a 92-96 guy, I view that as a noteworthy achievement; but it's still an incremental improvement, and on the scale of 3%, not 30% or whatever. Perhaps Maples actually has had a larger incremental step in his control than that, but it still just wasn't enough? But yeah, perhaps for other guys who weren't as historically awful, some incremental improvement will be enough?
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Well, Craig, that may be true. But you have to admit that, even with Maples, there was some noticeable improvement in his command. So, they can't take a guy from historically awful to good enough to stick, but maybe they can take a normal wildman and make enough of an incremental improvement to make him a value guy.
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I may be mis-concluding. But for me Dillon may be a reminder that for all of the value that pitch-lab potentially provides, it may be limited in it's capacity to help wildmen to develop the control and command necessary for big-league success.
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Hope Keegan's stuff is back.
Dillon, for a guy that hung around for 10+ years, we hardly knew ye.
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Jordan Bastian
Cubs moves:
• Nico Hoerner activated from IL, will start today at SS.
• Keegan Thompson activated from IL, and will start today.
• Dillon Maples DFA'd.
• Nick Martini optioned to Triple-A Iowa.
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Saturday’s game, Wisdom had 10 swings and misses (2 called strikes) in his 4 Ks. Granted, he was facing elite pitching but 10 swings and misses in one game is a heck of a lot.
He’s still at a 40% K rate on the season.
Think he goes into 2022 as the starting 3B but skeptical that he can continue to barrel pitches when he makes contact at his 2021 rate. But, you have to see if he can. Maybe he’s an outlier.
Has quite a bit of defensive value——made a terrific play on Saturday on a ball hit to his right.
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For a while at least, it appeared that Patrick Wisdom had come back down to earth pretty hard, with teams figuring out to pitch him. Maybe that will prove to be the case, although in the last 7 days, he's been doing pretty well. In 23 PA, he has .286 BA, .348 OBP, .571 SLG, .919 OPS. We'll see.
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Jordan Bastian
Cubs moves…
• LHP Adam Morgan reinstated from MLB’s bereavement list
• RHP Manny Rodríguez (R. shoulder inflammation) to 10-day IL
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Buster Olney
@Buster_ESPN
·
19m
FROM ELIAS: The Cubs are the 1st team in MLB history to lose twice in a season by 8+ runs after leading by 7+ runs. They lost 15-7 vs the Brewers on June 30 when leading 7-0. They lost 17-8 today after leading 7-0.
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Schwindel.
Most recent 46 PAs:
One K.
ONE!
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Shame we won't get a longer look at Hermosillo. Not that he's a great prospect or anything but it's a risk-free trial period, and look what that did for Tank.
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The #Cubs today placed OF Jason Heyward on the seven-day concussion IL (retroactive to 9/12) and selected OF Trayce Thompson from
@IowaCubs.
OF Michael Hermosillo has been transferred to the 60-day IL.
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I'm all for contact hitters but power is useful too. And if you are going to have power you are usually going to have guys who k a lot. So assuming you don't find a unicorn who can do both, what is a good mix? Assuming the DH would you rather have 5 contact and 4 with power? Or what number would be best?
We have a short memory, I guess.
How about the mix of the 2016 Cubs?
Four regulars with an OBP of at least .385.
Then, with the exception of Heyward, most everybody had a healthy iso power number.
OBP and iso power…. and keep Ks under control.
Of course, heart of that club was exceptional SP and historically good defensive efficiency but was a very good offensive club too.
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If we go after any of former Cubs via trade or FA, my list in order would be Castellanos, Bryant, Donaldson, Schwarber, Chafin, Tepera, Rizzo, Baez...in that order.
I think Schwindel would be a good fill, but I'm worried about Wisdom. Great story but the k's concern me.
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A mix of hitters that have weaknesses on different pitches.
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I'm all for contact hitters but power is useful too. And if you are going to have power you are usually going to have guys who k a lot. So assuming you don't find a unicorn who can do both, what is a good mix? Assuming the DH would you rather have 5 contact and 4 with power? Or what number would be best?
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He's probably going to be our Opening Day first baseman next year at this point, right? Hard to think they'll be looking to replace him unless he goes into a really bad slump the last couple weeks of the season.
I can't imagine that he won't be, unless he gets a serious injury. If the cubs enter the higher tier free agent market this winter/spring, it is most likely IMO that they will go after a starter and/or a shortstop. Schwindel is not likely to be a superstar, but his strength in the minors has always been contact, and that seems to be the direction the cubs are going. I suppose they might use Rivas or someone similar to spell him at times, but he should get the lion's share of the first base at bats, unless he proves next year that he doesn't deserve them.
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Jordan Bastian
Since launching his 25th home run of the season on Aug. 28, Patrick Wisdom has gone 4-for-45 (.089) with 22 strikeouts.
Yeah. I've noticed.
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Jordan Bastian
Since launching his 25th home run of the season on Aug. 28, Patrick Wisdom has gone 4-for-45 (.089) with 22 strikeouts.
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He's probably going to be our Opening Day first baseman next year at this point, right? Hard to think they'll be looking to replace him unless he goes into a really bad slump the last couple weeks of the season.
Not much downside given that it's a tank year. May as well see what you have with him.
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Frank Schwindel now .372/.423/.693
He's probably going to be our Opening Day first baseman next year at this point, right? Hard to think they'll be looking to replace him unless he goes into a really bad slump the last couple weeks of the season.
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Frank Schwindel now .372/.423/.693
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Jordan Bastian
Cubs bench coach Andy Green says manager David Ross has been cleared to rejoin the team Sunday.
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Great to see Nance get another shot. He pitched great and then had a couple of bad outings during the season-destroying losing streak and hasn't been back since then.
As BN reminds us about Nance:
…The sticky stuff enforcement came, and at the same time, Nance’s spin rates, pitch movement, and results all cratered. We don’t have to make any accusations here to acknowledge the timeline…
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Great to see Nance get another shot. He pitched great and then had a couple of bad outings during the season-destroying losing streak and hasn't been back since then.
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Jordan Bastian
Cubs moves this morning…
• LHP Adam Morgan to MLB’s bereavement list
• RHP Tommy Nance recalled from AAA Iowa
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Madrigal has geen on the 60-day since June 10.
When Cubs acquired him, he went from Sox 60-day to Cubs 60-day.
Oooh. Geen. I don't think there's a cure for that.
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Madrigal was moved to the 60 day IL. That closes the apparent gap.
Madrigal has geen on the 60-day since June 10.
When Cubs acquired him, he went from Sox 60-day to Cubs 60-day.
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Willson Contreras seems to be embracing the present and future Cubs.
https://theathletic.com/2813412/2021/09/08/how-cubs-willson-contreras-is-handling-the-rebuild-i-havent-felt-this-energy-in-a-really-long-time/
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Madrigal was moved to the 60 day IL. That closes the apparent gap.
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Take a look. Roster is at 41.
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Roster was at 39 when Andrew Romine DFA.
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Jordan Bastian
• OF Michael Hermosillo to 10-day IL (left forearm strain)
• OF Nick Martini selected from AAA Iowa
That will require a 40-man roster move.
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Jordan Bastian
• OF Michael Hermosillo to 10-day IL (left forearm strain)
• OF Nick Martini selected from AAA Iowa
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This winter Hoyer will trade Schwindel to Oakland for Chaffin
Can you imagine if Tank had been one of our top 10 prospects and come up and did what he's done at 23 or 24? Everyone would be raving about how he was a surefire superstar. Context sure changes things.
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Jordan Bastian
OF Michael Hermosillo has been out with left forearm injury. Bench coach Andy Green said it has been bothersome while taking swings recently and Cubs don't want to push it. A day to day evaluation situation right now.
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This winter Hoyer will trade Schwindel to Oakland for Chaffin
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Anthony who?
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-tPamAX0AId14f?format=jpg&name=900x900)
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If the Darvish trade was meant to put them over the top, so far it hasn't worked out for the Padres. After a good start, Caratini has declined to a .303 OBA and .618 OPS, and Darvish has been less then dominant with a sub 500 W/L and a .405 ERA.
It might still turn out well for them. If Darvish had been as dominant as hoped, but they failed to win it all, Darvish would probably exercised his opt out this winter leaving San Diego with nothing.
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The #Cubs today activated INF David Bote off the 10-day IL and designated INF Andrew Romine for assignment.
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From Today's Game
Yesterday's win guarantees that we will not lose 100.
And it puts us on pace to go 74-88 for the year, avoiding even 90 losses, though that includes the good baseball we played for the first few months. Fangraphs, whose projections factor in the current roster changes, have them going 10-14 the rest of the way and finishing at 73-89. That's pretty optimistic, though this new bunch certainly has been surprising us recently.
Remaining schedule
Reds - home, 3
Giants - home 3
Phillies - away, 3
Brewers - away, 3
Twins - home, 2
Cardinals - home, 4
Pirates - away, 3
Cardinals - away, 3
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The reality, if we're honest, is that as great a story as it is none of these late-bloomer guys will sustain it next season. But given that it's not a year when we'll be trying to contend there's really no downside in giving guys like Tank, Wisdom, and Ortega every chance to prove it's not a fluke. It's rare, but guys breaking through that late does happen.
I'll say this much, looking at peripherals Schwindel sure looks like a better bet to be legit than Wisdom. A 40% K rate (he's right on his career average, ROFL) is hard to overcome. But his glove will probably keep him around the majors - there are worse roster-fillers than a guy who can play defense and hit HRs off the bench.
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We only have to go back to Junior Lake in order to see an incredible start that ended badly.
There is a considerable difference between expectations based upon their minor league stats. Both Wisdom and especially Schwindel had respectible minor league records, while Lake's minor league expectations were generated mostly by potential, rather than performance.
Certainly Schwindel is not likely to hit 5 home runs in every 6 game period. But it is not unreasonable to hope that his AAA year of .286 - .336 - .508 - .842 can't be approached over his remaining MLB peak years.
I am less optimistic about Wisdom. Cutting down on strike out rate seems to be the most difficult thing for a batter to do, and he will have to continue his prodigious home run rate to be a plus MLB player, in spite of his defensive abilities.
I agree about Wisdom. He needs a coach have him shorten up ala Rizzo when a dinger is not necessary to keep rallies started or going. Many fans didn't understand that some of the guys we lost were rally killers. Wisdom is a good story, but needs to draw down the K's.
This team is almost more fun to watch. They can run a rally and keep one going to come from behind. Of course, their opposition of late is rather putrid.
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Frank Fucking Schwindel!!!
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We only have to go back to Junior Lake in order to see an incredible start that ended badly.
There is a considerable difference between expectations based upon their minor league stats. Both Wisdom and especially Schwindel had respectible minor league records, while Lake's minor league expectations were generated mostly by potential, rather than performance.
Certainly Schwindel is not likely to hit 5 home runs in every 6 game period. But it is not unreasonable to hope that his AAA year of .286 - .336 - .508 - .842 can't be approached over his remaining MLB peak years.
I am less optimistic about Wisdom. Cutting down on strike out rate seems to be the most difficult thing for a batter to do, and he will have to continue his prodigious home run rate to be a plus MLB player, in spite of his defensive abilities.
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So did we luck ourselves into a 1st and 3rd baseman in Schwindel and Wisdom?
JD noted on the broadcast today the saga of Cubs OFer Mandy Brooks.
Brooks came up to big leagues as a 27 year old rookie in 1925.
First 157 PAs had a slash line of 333-364-646.
In 1926, Brooks hit under the Mendoza line and was out of the big leagues——never to return again.
To make matters worse, baseball folks thought he died 15 years before his actual death and had to correct his biography years later.
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So did we luck ourselves into a 1st and 3rd baseman in Schwindel and Wisdom?
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I feared as much. Thompson's velocity has been down and his stuff has been notably short.
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The #Cubs today activated catcher Willson Contreras from the 10-day IL and placed RHP Keegan Thompson on the 10-day IL (retroactive to 9/3) with right shoulder inflammation.
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..Hoyer had the goal of trading 1 guy a day to make things more manageable, but that’s obviously not how it worked out. He also had some larger, multi-player deals in place (details of which were not meaningfully disclosed in the article) but felt he got a better return by splitting guys up. ...
"details of which were not meaningfully disclosed in the article". Yeah, there was little in terms of details or rumors about what teams were involved, or who was holding out, or whatever. The few specifics:
1. Rizzo seemed to be between New York and Boston. HOyer pressed to get the deal done before heading to Washington the next day. Much of the front of the article was about how the communication to Rizzo went, and how his goodbyes went and stuff. calling guys back in from the team bus to say goodbye, etc..
2. "Almost from the get-go, teams made their highest-rated prospects off-limits to the Cubs. One by one, names were removed from the board, forcing Cubs officials to recalibrate expectations. ... Hoyer’s goal — completing one deal a day within the final week leading up to the trade deadline — proved to be unrealistic."
3. The article suggests that there was only one other team than the Mets with even a passing interest in Baez, and that the Mets were also after Story. And that the Mets were also interested in Bryant, either with Baez or instead of Baez. "The Mets seemed to be in on everyone. There were discussions about a huge deal involving Bryant, Báez and another player that Hoyer ultimately decided wouldn’t top what he could get for each player individually. The Cubs wanted to steer Bryant away from New York because only one other team appeared to have a passing interest in Báez. The Rockies are often a difficult team to read — and they wound up holding onto All-Star shortstop Trevor Story for the last two months of the season — but that situation presented a possible alternative to Báez."
4. "Always thinking outside the box, the Rays checked in on the possibility of acquiring both Bryant and Kimbrel in a blockbuster deal. The Reds expressed an interest in Bryant late in the process. The Cubs were constantly trying to gauge which teams had legitimate interest in their players, and which executives were just trying to figure out if they could do a discounted deal or lay the groundwork for a backup plan in case they couldn’t land their No. 1 target. Teams would be engaged on Kimbrel, then suddenly lose interest and shift to talking about a hitter."
5. "Outside of a bigger trade scenario that involved Davies going to the Mets, the veteran starter garnered little interest around the deadline and ended up staying in Chicago."
I think that was basically the extent of notes about actual teams, discussions, or players. No indication who else was in on Kimbrel, or Bryant. What kinds of offers the Cubs had for Bryant that they turned down because they preferred Canario and Kilian. No gossip about whether the Cubs were pushing for a different pitcher and settled for Kilian; or the Cubs wanted Kilian and it was the Giants who eventually decided he wasn't worth nixing the deal, or whatever.
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...Also noted the staffing challenges in the scouting department due to prior COVID-related layoffs. The club had to pivot their much smaller group of scouts from reviewing potential MLB targets (as buyers) to evaluating minor league rosters (as sellers) very quickly.
Hoyer didn't mention it, but elsewhere I've seen reference to how the scouting world has been somewhat stressed by the July 11-13 draft. The Cubs weren't the only organization to compact their scouting staff thanks to Covid. But here it was June and early July, and the scouts overall were variably conflicted between four priorities:
-Scouting for this year's July draft.
-Scouting for this year's July trade deadline as possible buyers.
-Scouting for this year's July trade deadline as possible sellers.
-Scouting for next year's draft.
An observation was that normally with the start-of-June draft, there is a little relax time before going all-in on July trade-deadline thinking. And after the start-of-June draft, a lot of scouts spent time at summer HS show-cases and college summer leagues in prep for next year's draft. And just going to a lot of minor league games.
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Thanks, tico. Appreciate the recap.
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What’s the tl;dr on the trade deadline article? (Or in this case, ds;dr - don’t subscribe; didn’t read.)
It’s a pretty favorable article reflecting on all Hoyer and team had to juggle while trading off so many assets so quickly, especially given that just a couple weeks before the deadline they were supposed to be buyers.
Hoyer had the goal of trading 1 guy a day to make things more manageable, but that’s obviously not how it worked out. He also had some larger, multi-player deals in place (details of which were not meaningfully disclosed in the article) but felt he got a better return by splitting guys up.
Also noted the staffing challenges in the scouting department due to prior COVID-related layoffs. The club had to pivot their much smaller group of scouts from reviewing potential MLB targets (as buyers) to evaluating minor league rosters (as sellers) very quickly.
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The good work by Frankie Schwindel, Ortega, and by Manny Rodriguez and Heuer have settled the Cubs into the 9th spot in the draft as of today. One win behind the Rockies for spot #10. I'd hate to go higher than that, because the Mets have spot 11 locked, so we'd double step to 12th if we passed both the rockies and Detroit.
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Gordon Wittenmyer
Club says both are “feeling well.”
Ross and Hoyer have tested positive for COVID-19. Both are vaccinated.
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What’s the tl;dr on the trade deadline article? (Or in this case, ds;dr - don’t subscribe; didn’t read.)
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Great article on Wisdom here:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/evaluating-the-sustainability-of-patrick-wisdoms-production/
tl;dr - there actually *is* some semblance of stability to what he's doing, but he's walking a *very* fine line...
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The #Cubs today activated RHPs Adbert Alzolay and Dillon Maples from the 10-day IL.
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Nice article, Ron. I'd have been curious if they'd had more info on what other teams were in discussions for Baez, Bryant, and Kimbrel.
Or really for Tepera or the Sherriff, too.
What would be really funny would be if the Marisnick trade ended up netting one of the best guys...
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Adbert Alzolay will pitch out of the bullpen upon returning from the injured list (left hamstring strain), Cubs manager David Ross told Marquee's Taylor McGregor Tuesday.
https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/cubs-adbert-alzolay-finish-season-pitching-out-bullpen?utm_tags=sm_npd_rsn_chi_twt_mn
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Mooney and Sharma have an interesting account of the whirlwind of trades made by Hoyer before the deadline.
As an aside, it turns out Rizzo was traded for a player with the same name as Rizzo's dog (Kevin).
https://theathletic.com/2801767/2021/09/01/no-reason-to-go-halfway-behind-the-scenes-of-the-cubs-trade-deadline-that-turned-the-organization-upside-down/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
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I'd say the jury is still out on Ross. There are many, many more important issues for Hoyer to deal with than replacing Ross (and still will be after the 2022 season).
I agree with the first half of that statement, not so sure about the second.
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I'd say the jury is still out on Ross. There are many, many more important issues for Hoyer to deal with than replacing Ross (and still will be after the 2022 season).
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What's the rationale for getting rid of Ross?
A lack of evidence that he's been a positive in terms of player development or that he's especially good at the job?
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I'd take Javy back for cheap.
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What's the rationale for getting rid of Ross?
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I don't think being respectable should in and of itself be a goal for next season. We're not going to contend, and the imperative should be to make moves that help the long-term rebuild rather than hinder it. Of course, signing competent mid-tier FAs to 1 and 2-year deals and flipping them at the deadline is likely to make you more respectable anyway.
Regarding Baez, I think there's a good chance he'll take a 1-year "prove it" deal rather than sign long-term for a fraction of what he expected after '19. That's something we ought to consider, because there's not much downside. We have plenty of money, Baez has a lot of residual goodwill with the fans, and who knows - maybe he turns it around and you can trade him to the Mets again. He's still young and still a freak talent - it could happen.
Of course you have the elephant in the room with Ross, but given that '22 is likely to be a transitional year with minimal or no participation from our better prospects, I imagine you probably keep him around and make the change after next season.
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I think adding two mid-rotation starters is unlikely.
One plus some depth guys to allow them to manage the young starters' innings.
Jeff, I'd like guys on 2- or 3-year deals, not just 1-year. And I'd like some kind of a risk/development pickup. Something risky, in terms of possible money-down-the-drain. But something with upside, too.
Arrieta was supposed to be a sign-and-trade candidate. Obviously he wasn't any good, so that didn't work. But even if he HAD been pitching capably, he'd have been only a 2-month rental, not getting much for that. Likewise Davies seemed to profile as a mid-year-trade candidate; but again as an expiring, even if he had been pitching well you'd not get much. I know we can shoot for pure roster-fill or rental-sign-and-trade candidates. But given our payroll space, I'd prefer to go with ≥2-years of club control, just in case you scout well.
We all remember the great Feldman sign-and-trade. That worked both because he was fairly good, but also because the Cubs signed him to a 2-year deal.
Chatwood is a terrible example because he busted bad. But I'm thinking I'd like to take a shot at a pickup like his profile? Was a 3-year contract with good upside; *IF* he'd turned out golden, you'd have had him for a while. *IF* he'd turned out golden but the rebuild was slow so that you wanted to trade him to a contender anyway, he'd have had good-value-for-modest-dollar appeal to a contender.
Last winter the Giants signed DeSclafani to a 1-year deal. I'm sure they wish they'd somehow gotten a 3-year deal instead.
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I think adding two mid-rotation starters is unlikely.
One plus some depth guys to allow them to manage the young starters' innings.
I think it should be Plan A, but agree that unlikely to be accomplished. It’s a tall order.
An interesting tidbit at Kevin Goldstein’s Fangraphs chat today. Said he expected Rays to non-tender Tyler Glasnow rather than pay about $8 arb salary while he misses 2022 season to rehab post-surgery. Cubs should sign Glasnow and have him ready for 2023. Pay him to rehab in 2022 for the reward later.
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I think adding two mid-rotation starters is unlikely.
One plus some depth guys to allow them to manage the young starters' innings.
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Hendricks
FA
FA
Alzolay/Steele/Thompson
Mills
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Cubs need to bring in two quality SPs…and not Zach Davies types but legit #3 types (or better). That should be off-season priority over position player guys.
Then, Alzolay, Steele, Thompson compete for one SP spot, with Mills the #5 guy.
That’s the ticket for 2022 respectability.
Don’t see 2022 as an intentional tanking season. May turn out that way, but don’t see that as the plan.
So the Professor is gone?
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Cubs need to bring in two quality SPs…and not Zach Davies types but legit #3 types (or better). That should be off-season priority over position player guys.
Then, Alzolay, Steele, Thompson compete for one SP spot, with Mills the #5 guy.
That’s the ticket for 2022 respectability.
Don’t see 2022 as an intentional tanking season. May turn out that way, but don’t see that as the plan.
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On the one hand, Adbert Alzolay hasn't given us reason to be particularly excited about his future role with the Cubs (5.16 ERA, 5.13 FIP, 1.204 WHIP). On the other hand, Greg Maddux' first full season with the Cubs produced 5.61 ERA, 4.50 FIP and 1.638 WHIP. So, maybe that's not indicative of his potential?
But then, Alzolay is five years older than Maddux was. ;)
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With the way pitcher usage and roster management have evolved, it makes sense that basically all of those records have been set in the last few years. I'm curious to know what was going on with the Padres in 2002, though. Using 37 different pitchers at that time was an accomplishment.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E9_UIJ_XsAYqg99?format=jpg&name=900x900)
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I've been pretty busy and haven't actually been watching real often. What's the scouting observation on Heuer?
from the box scores, it seems like he's been kind of uneventful.
*Has been getting lots of outs, but doing so without many K's or many pitches or many walks.
*Is he just in a lucky groove where he's hittable but the BIPs all just conveniently go to fielders? Or does his stuff look legit, like he might be a sustainable good reliever?
*Thus far he doesn't throw many pitches and doesn't seem to fit the normal reliever K/BB/long-counts profile.
Heur looks like a decent setup guy but he’d be a lot more interesting if his velocity was anywhere close to what it was last season.
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Buh-bye, Meisinger.
Trivia: in Old Norse, his name means "titmouse": https://youtu.be/5MRfVHU9fr0?t=874
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The other day when Wisdom hit the homerun off of Gomber, did any of our announcers mention that they were both teammates in the Cardinal system for some time? Just wondering.
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I see your point that his almost-no-windup delivery might be variably vulnerable to inconsistencies.
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I'd say Heuer has better overall stuff than Howry had, but isn't quite the extreme strike thrower Bobby was.
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Thanks, Jeff.
The good-version-of-Bobby-Howry (his first two Cubs seasons in 05-06) threw strikes, and walked few, although his stuff was not overwhelming. Thus far Heuers box scores kind of fit the good-Howry profile. Howry was bad his 3rd year. Kept throwing strikes and challenging, but they were getting whacked all over the place.
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Legit late inning stuff. Command is pretty good, but has a weird delivery that I could see getting out of whack at times. Probably could close, but would not be a ninth inning guy on a championship club.
If he's pitching the seventh inning, you have a really excellent bullpen.
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I've been pretty busy and haven't actually been watching real often. What's the scouting observation on Heuer?
from the box scores, it seems like he's been kind of uneventful.
*Has been getting lots of outs, but doing so without many K's or many pitches or many walks.
*Is he just in a lucky groove where he's hittable but the BIPs all just conveniently go to fielders? Or does his stuff look legit, like he might be a sustainable good reliever?
*Thus far he doesn't throw many pitches and doesn't seem to fit the normal reliever K/BB/long-counts profile.
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Baseball is so hard to predict. Exhibit A: Patrick Freaking Wisdom. 25 HRs so far, one behind Kris Bryant's rookie season in which KB had 650 PAs.
If Wisdom had prospect cred, he'd really be in the ROY conversation. He's been terrific this year so far. Maybe he will burn out, maybe not.
Sure hope he can play like this again in future years, though that's likely another longshot. He sure has done a GREAT job this year! Hats off!
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- Selected INF Alfonso Rivas and RHP Scott Effross from
@IowaCubs
- Designated RHPs Jake Jewell and Ryan Meisinger for assignment
Not counting position players who pitched (4), Effross will be Cubs 34th pitcher this season so far.
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Good. I've seen plenty of Jewell and Meisinger.
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Rivas was acquired from the A's in January '20 for Tony Kemp. The first baseman (and part-time corner outfielder) has hit .284/.405/.411 overall this season. Rivas has a .364/.432/.439 slash in his last 18 games for Iowa.
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- Selected INF Alfonso Rivas and RHP Scott Effross from
@IowaCubs
- Designated RHPs Jake Jewell and Ryan Meisinger for assignment
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08/28/21 Chicago Cubs selected the contract of 1B Alfonso Rivas from Iowa Cubs.
08/28/21 Chicago Cubs placed 2B David Bote on the 10-day injured list. Right ankle sprain.
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Happ.
https://www.mlb.com/news/ian-happ-not-worried-about-cubs-evaluations
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Was very skeptical about Adam Morgan as a generic bullpen lefty, but maybe he’s a keeper for 2022 (arb eligible).
Since July 17: 12.2 IP—1 earned run—4 BB—19 Ks. Seems to be throwing with a lot of spin and good movement on pitches. Will be interesting to see if he can keep something like this up going forward.
Morgan left a terrible impression because of that one game where he came in and blew the lead in a clutch situation, right after we got him, but other than that he's been pretty solid.
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Was very skeptical about Adam Morgan as a generic bullpen lefty, but maybe he’s a keeper for 2022 (arb eligible).
Since July 17: 12.2 IP—1 earned run—4 BB—19 Ks. Seems to be throwing with a lot of spin and good movement on pitches. Will be interesting to see if he can keep something like this up going forward.
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Who the heck knows, but I believe Keegan Thompson will be a very piece for MLB Cubs going forward as a starter or reliever.
Seems like the weight of the Cub coach comments suggest:
*his stuff is good enough to be a back-end rotation starter or a useful reliever (as he was this year);
*he's baseball smart and has shown the willingness and ability to make necessary adjustments;
*he's very confident and competitive as hell, which are necessary qualities for a guy to succeed at the MLB level.
Of course, we will need lots of other pitchers to step UP or sign as free agents, however, as Craig says, it's one guy at a time.
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You can play young players and still try to win. Having the objective of losing is not the same as playing young players and winning less as a result.
As the Nashville Predators and their GM who's been around too long calls it, a "competitive rebuild".
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Jensen has also been working on specific things and that doesn't always lead to immediate success. He needs to put it all together soon, but I haven't lost interest in him.
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Yeah, on Jensen, has the excellent occasional appearance, mixed in with the poor ones. The excellent ones show the upside—-much better than consistent okay starts.
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Craig, I'll disagree with your take that Jensen has been a disappointment.
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Thanks Jeff. I've got my stupid "skeleton" perspective on a rebuild.
1. You need to have a skeleton of a functional team in place before good-quality FA's will take your money and join you.
2. And you assemble that skeleton one guy at a time.
3. The skeleton doesn't need to have stars. Some good players can make it work, so that *if* a good player or an upcoming prospect can emerge as *star*, AND if you perhaps add one or more stars via FA, you can get good pretty quickly. Obviously *IF* you already have a star or two in place, that helps a lot.
But yeah, for every Rodriguez, Heuer, Ortega, Wisdom,Steele, and Thompson, I'm hoping for skeleton-bone, even though I have no "star" aspirations.
So, I'm trying to see the skeleton of a roster come together.
*Manual Rodriguez and Heuer, maybe the skeleton of a competitive bullpen is there?
*Steele, *IF* he could become a rotation skeleton piece? If not, I'm pretty confident he could be a good skeleton bone for the bullpen.
*Thompson, any chance?
*Hendricks.
*Alzolay?
*I'd really hoped that between Jensen, Brailyn Marquez, McAvene, Clarke, Franklin, Riley Thompson, and Abbott that we'd have identified another skeleton piece or two for the rotation. Hugely disappointing year for that pool. But next year is another year, and Wicks and Kilian will be added to the pool. I'm the optimist, but I'd still like to dream that by next August, we will feel like we've got a rotation skeleton, and that *IF* we were to add a FA star, that we might look to 2023 and beyond as being a potentially excellent rotation.
Lineup, that's harder. Contreras. Nico? Madrigal? Ortega? Wisdom?
*I'd like to hope that by next August, we'd think 3-4 of those guys were skeleton guys. Be wishful and say 4?
*What if we added one guy via FA this winter, who isn't Tatis-star but is a good, solid hitter. 5?
*Wish that Brennan Davis proves real. 6?
*Following next year, could that be enough skeleton, that there would be space to shoot for a star FA and enough skeleton-in-place persuadability that a star FA might say yes? 7.
*Trade prospects for 8? We've got a volume assembly of Rookie/low-A possible talent. What if Amaya came back healthy and impressed; some of the pitchers were looking interesting; and some of the outfielders from the Caissie/Alcantara/etc. pool are looking really promising? Maybe you trade a package of Amaya/pitcher/hitting prospect and add a good player via trade?
Build that skeleton one bone at a time...
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And rooting for your team to lose is pretty lame, IMO.
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You can play young players and still try to win. Having the objective of losing is not the same as playing young players and winning less as a result.
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What if they reversed the order of the non-playoff teams for the draft? Then you are either in the playoffs or get the top pick. Losing has no benefit whatsoever in that scenario. In fact, the losing teams would be scratching out wins right to the end almost like a second playoff chase at the same time playoff teams are trying to get in or better their seeds.
To me, the problem with this is that it seems like a bad idea to also disincentivize giving opportunities to young players that are going to have a "break in" period. In any given year, the list of prospects that are going to come up and be real good right away is short. If I choose to put Justin Steele in my rotation instead of giving Jose Quintana $4m, should I be punished for that?
To me, it's bad for the game to make it so a mediocre team plays, for example, Trevor Williams and Jake Marisnick instead of Keegan Thompson and Michael Hermosillo.
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Manuel Rodriguez has stacked some good outings. I haven't seen many of them.
*Does he look legit, scouting-wise?
To me, yes. He has top-end stuff. Also, when I watched him a handful of times in spring training, my thought was that he'd never have good enough command to make it. My amateur assessment is that he's gotten much, much, much better in that regard.
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Wouldn't that result in bad teams always being bad teams? If a small market team could not improve their position in the draft, we would have the result of Kansas City, Cincinnati and similar teams having a difficult time competing forever.
No, it would result in small market teams changing their philosophy and spending money to stay competitive. They don't have to hit the luxury tax to do so. There would no more tanking, small market teams would use their revenue sharing dollars to keep their top talent instead of pocketing it and claiming they are rebuilding and their attendance and fan interest would improve. I think you would be surprised how quickly the philosophies of small market teams would change. But this kind of proposal would hurt the model of small market owners who make their profits without having to shell out dollars for free agents or even compete, knowing their revenue sharing money is coming anyway, and they can claim to be rebuilding to sell their efforts to their fans. It would also raise competition for free agents so the big market clubs would have to pay more. Basically, only the players and fans would benefit so it will never happen.
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Manuel Rodriguez has stacked some good outings. I haven't seen many of them.
*Does he look legit, scouting-wise?
*Or is this more small-sample, with low-pressure being a tank team and with games rarely actually being close or "save" situation?
*Is he at his current level a guy you'd be comfortable with planning in as a late-inning guy next year, or even into a contending season? Or would he be kinda too wild, too little location of fastball, and not enough command of breaking ball to really be a trustworthy guy if there was pressure and good opponents?
*Velocity seems fine enough, obviously, from my couple of views.
*Might he be just fine as your closer for the next two years, and see where things go from there?
*Should we even have a "closer" over this year and next, given that closing situations may be spotty?
I'm the eternal optimist, but I'd like to think he's actually pretty good and may sustain as pretty capable. Which also kinda reminds me of some of the limits of Baseball America type rankings. I don't think any of the ranking mags have ever ranked him higher than ~25th in the Cubs system. A guy who might be a decent late-inning guy, maybe even a closer, with upper-90's stuff in a low-end-ranked system can't rank higher than 25th? It's a reminder to me that the rankings of pitchers, relief pitchers especially, is not super trustworthy.
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Wouldn't that result in bad teams always being bad teams? If a small market team could not improve their position in the draft, we would have the result of Kansas City, Cincinnati and similar teams having a difficult time competing forever.
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Every major North American team sport has been talking about disincentivizing tanking for as long as I can remember, and none of them has managed to do it. If you want to argue the NBA draft lottery has succeeded in doing that, be my guest, but I'd take issue with you.
What if they reversed the order of the non-playoff teams for the draft? Then you are either in the playoffs or get the top pick. Losing has no benefit whatsoever in that scenario. In fact, the losing teams would be scratching out wins right to the end almost like a second playoff chase at the same time playoff teams are trying to get in or better their seeds.
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Rangers are 12-32 since June 30. Look at their current roster. Hard to say they compare favorably to the Cubs. Unfortunately, Cubs don’t play them.
I can’t remember having multiple unbelievably bad clubs rounding out same season, like this season. Another example how “smart” GMs come to conclusion that being bad is good. (And, haven’t even mentioned Orioles).
The Cubs should catch the Ranger in run differential by next week.
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Every major North American team sport has been talking about disincentivizing tanking for as long as I can remember, and none of them has managed to do it. If you want to argue the NBA draft lottery has succeeded in doing that, be my guest, but I'd take issue with you.
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I am 100% in favor of any change to the draft rules, free agent signing rules, et cetera, that will disincentivize talking. It is ridiculous how many truly terrible teams there are each year and how they're not even trying to win.
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What year are the Orioled in their rebuild? 10?
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Rangers are 12-32 since June 30. Look at their current roster. Hard to say they compare favorably to the Cubs. Unfortunately, Cubs don’t play them.
I can’t remember having multiple unbelievably bad clubs rounding out same season, like this season. Another example how “smart” GMs come to conclusion that being bad is good. (And, haven’t even mentioned Orioles).
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The Cubs shouldn't be favored in any game the rest of the year. Every win will be an upset. I would imagine they are a top 5 lock with an outside chance at picking 4th.
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It depends on your definition of "favorable".
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They've gone
4-2 against Arizona (before the deadline)
1-2 against Nationals (after the deadline)
1-2 against the Rockies,
0-3 Marlins
0-3 Royals
There are no favorable matchups left.
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Run Differential
Cubs -102
Texas -144
Arizona -170
Pirates -189
Baltimore -233
On June 24 the Cubs run differential in baseball with +28 through 75 games. In the next 51 games they have had a -130 run differential, over 162 games that would come out to -413 run differential.
The Cubs remaining schedule is favorable
Home - 19
Rockies - 3
Pirates - 4
Reds - 3
Giants - 3
Twins - 2
Cardinals - 4
Away - 17
White Sox - 3
Twins - 2
Phillies - 3
Brewers - 3
Pirates - 3
Cardinals - 3
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The Cubs are 4-18 since the trade deadline. If they continue playing at that level, they will finish with a record of 60-102.
If the rest of MLB continues at their present winning percentages, the Cubs will be ahead of only Baltimore and Arizona.
Run Differential
Cubs -102
Texas -144
Arizona -170
Pirates -189
Baltimore -233
On June 24 the Cubs run differential in baseball with +28 through 75 games. In the next 51 games they have had a -130 run differential, over 162 games that would come out to -413 run differential.
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The Cubs are 4-18 since the trade deadline. If they continue playing at that level, they will finish with a record of 60-102.
If the rest of MLB continues at their present winning percentages, the Cubs will be ahead of only Baltimore and Arizona.
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I like Nico, but gee wiz, if he continues to hurt himself by running to first base and swinging at pitches in the batter’s box you got to really wonder.
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Sharma.
Nico Hoerner left his rehab game in South Bend mid-at-bat today after swinging through a pitch. According to the Cubs, he felt "increased tension along his right oblique" so he decided not to push it. They'll reassess tomorrow.
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If any of them is making the MLB minimum, they would just have to be replaced by someone else making the MLB minimum. But I suppose it gives the Cubs the chance to bring up someone else to take a look at.
Don’t see guys with significant MLB experience getting the minimum, unless another club on the hook for their salary anyway.
But, every few hundred-thousand is a savings, so if someone claimed Winkler at his .9, it’s something. Duffy making 1.0, catcher Romine 1.5.
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AZ Phil:
I also fully expect the Cubs to place post-2021 MLB Article XX-B free-agents to be like Zach Davies, Matt Duffy, Robinson Chirinos, Jose Lobaton (if heathy enough to play) and the two Romines on Outright Assignment Waivers sometime in the next week. That is apparently what the Cubs did with Dan Winkler prior to releasing him, where they were hoping he might get claimed off Outright Assignment Waivers so that the Cubs could get out from unfer his remaining salary. Winkler went unclaimed, however, so the Cubs ended up having to release him.
If any of them is making the MLB minimum, they would just have to be replaced by someone else making the MLB minimum. But I suppose it gives the Cubs the chance to bring up someone else to take a look at.
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Could possibly see doing that with Duffy when Hoerner activated. Duffy basically has been a replacement level player this season (0.2 bWAR) and is a pending FA. Why play him going forward? Figure to see Hoerner at SS and Wisdom at 3B for most part.
Don’t see releasing two catchers, but could see one going when Contreras activated. Neither has an option.
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Saving every penny for stormans offer.
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Why would we do that with Duffy and Chirinos? They're barely making anything, and they're playing decently.
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AZ Phil:
I also fully expect the Cubs to place post-2021 MLB Article XX-B free-agents to be like Zach Davies, Matt Duffy, Robinson Chirinos, Jose Lobaton (if heathy enough to play) and the two Romines on Outright Assignment Waivers sometime in the next week. That is apparently what the Cubs did with Dan Winkler prior to releasing him, where they were hoping he might get claimed off Outright Assignment Waivers so that the Cubs could get out from unfer his remaining salary. Winkler went unclaimed, however, so the Cubs ended up having to release him.
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Thanks, Ron. Nice article.
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Sharma with a hopeful column on Michael Hermosillo.
https://theathletic.com/2781820/2021/08/21/could-the-cubs-have-a-late-bloomer-success-story-in-michael-hermosillo/?source=weeklyemail&campaign=602288
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OF Johneshwy Fargas has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A Iowa.
RHP Dan Winkler has been placed on unconditional release waivers. #Cubs
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08/21/21 Chicago Cubs optioned RHP Jake Jewell to Iowa Cubs.
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https://southportcorridorchicago.com/2021/08/19/wrigley-fields-new-mask-mandates/
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Nice article on Michael Hermosillo, who grew up as a Cub fan.
https://www.mlb.com/cubs/news/michael-hermosillo-hits-homer-in-first-cubs-start
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Fargas can’t decline an outright assignment. So, unless claimed on waivers or given his release, he’ll be outrighted to Iowa.
Az Phil:
because he has not been outrighted previously in his career, Johneshway Fargas will not have the right to elect free-agency if he is outrighted, although he would automaticaly be declared an MLB Rule 9 (formerly MLB Rule 55) 6YFA at 5 PM Eastern on the 5th day after the final game of the World Series if he is not added back to an MLB 40-man roster or does not sign a 2022 minor league successor contract in the meantime.
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I wouldn't be surprised if we try to resign Fargas. It looks like we needed the 40 man roster space.
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Too hard to spell.
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Why are we dumping The Shwy so soon? Is it because we already have The Schwin?
(Neither of these guys replaces The Schwarb.)
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Sorry to see Winkler not make it. I always kinda loved the movement on his pitches, and through May when the Cubs were in first place, he was really effective. The command/consistency margin is so narrow between success and failure. Tough profession, that's for sure. I can't imagine the mental pressure in a career where so quickly a man can fall from surrounded in success to alone, so abruptly.
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Jordan Bastian
• OF Johneshwy Fargas DFA’d
• RHP Adrian Sampson selected from Triple-A Iowa.
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Veteran Presents.
Despite him not getting vaccinated, I think he generally is a good guy to have around. It doesn’t mean he has to play though.
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Why don't we just DFA Heyward? It's a sunk cost. Just let him get a fresh start someplace else, and let's not waste at bats on him anymore.
We really should have sold high on him this offseason when we had the chance to get a team to possibly cover $7 million or so of his salary.
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Happ needs to play. Heyward not so much.
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Jordan Bastian
Hermosillo will platoon with Rafael Ortega in centerfield.
Of course, can't take playing time away from Happ or Heyward. Gotta get them guys going!
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Glad Hermosillo is up.
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Jordan Bastian
Hermosillo will platoon with Rafael Ortega in centerfield.
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Cubs moves today:
• RHP Dan Winkler designated for assignment
• OF Michael Hermosillo selected from Triple-A Iowa
• LHP Kyle Ryan outrighted, elected free agency
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The Cubs are doing a ceremony on Thursday to unveil a Cubs hall of fame and Wrigley becoming a National Landmark. The Ricketts family, as usual, will also destroy what good press this could bring by giving themselves a plaque for being dedicated to “preserving” Wrigley. The really need a new PR department.
Yes, clearly the problem is with the PR department.
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Maybe they’ll all email formal letters to each other patting themselves on their collective backs…
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The Cubs are doing a ceremony on Thursday to unveil a Cubs hall of fame and Wrigley becoming a National Landmark. The Ricketts family, as usual, will also destroy what good press this could bring by giving themselves a plaque for being dedicated to “preserving” Wrigley. The really need a new PR department.
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There is a nice article by Sharma on Jason Heyward's love for the city and his commitment to making a positive difference in the city off the field. (Opportunity for wisecracks about his performance on the field). Seems like a really good guy and a smart one as well. Makes it all the more bizarre that he would choose not get vaccinated.
https://theathletic.com/2770289/2021/08/15/why-cubs-jason-heyward-has-embraced-chicago-even-when-it-hasnt-always-embraced-him-back-its-home/
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Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
The trade deadline was a thrill a minute. On the flip side, some of the sellers looks like they may never win another game.
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#Cubs activate Jason Heyward from the 10-day IL. Greg Deichmann optioned to Triple-A Iowa.
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Arrieta apparently has some health issue that prevents him from doing the cross-fire delivery of 2015/16 and hasn’t adjusted his approach or pitch mix since the decline in his stuff. I’ll remember his first stint and try and block out the crap that was this season.
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Arrieta was the best pitcher in baseball in 2015, and led the Cubs to a World Series victory in 2016. I don't think "sticky stuff" was an issue in either year.
Some pitchers are able to make the transition from overpowering the opponents to finessing the opponents as they age and their skills wane. Arrieta was not able to do that. But it was worth a shot in signing him.
His first stint with the Cubs made my 65 years as a Cubs fan worth while, and I wish him well.
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Taylor McGregor
#Cubs place Adbert Alzolay on 10-day IL with mild left hamstring strain. Recall Trevor Megill from Triple-A.
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Jese Rogers
One more Arrieta note: His 6.88 ERA was the highest by a Cubs pitcher with at least 80 IP since Rubén Quevedo in 2000 (7.47).
Antivaxxietta doesn't have the excuse of a crap manager leaving him out there for 137 pitches or whatever it was - he just sucks. I'm sure the crackdown on sticky substances did him no favors either.
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Ruben Quevedo! Bringing back the memories....
https://www.mlb.com/news/ruben-quevedo-dies-at-37-of-heart-attack-c182838974
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Ruben Quevedo! Bringing back the memories....
Jose Hernandez and Terry Mulholland trade, correct?
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Jese Rogers
One more Arrieta note: His 6.88 ERA was the highest by a Cubs pitcher with at least 80 IP since Rubén Quevedo in 2000 (7.47).
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I wonder how close Arrieta's release puts them to the vaccination threshold. Some other notable anti-vaxxers also removed.
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Andre Dawson has what I consider to be a refreshing perspective on the loss of Bryant, Rizzo and Baez, specifically on the players' role in the loss.
"The Cubs teardown doesn’t square all that well with Andre Dawson, who so wanted to play for the North Siders in 1987 that he offered a signed, otherwise blank free-agent contract only to be handed a $500,000 pittance for a three-time All-Star.
Dawson, 67 — and a Cubs ambassador — puts the onus more on the star players who left.
“It kind of bothers you, to a degree,” he said. “The mindset today is fair market value, but I think there’s a very fine line because players get paid today really to do nothing. A lot of them make a lot of money, and really they’re average or above average. But you’ve got to have a sense of loyalty. If fair value is offered to you, you’ve got to weigh the pros and cons. If it’s not where you want to be, that’s another thing. But I’ve always felt you have to have a feeling and loyalty to an organization if you can if the numbers are fair.”
Dawson wasn’t as confident as Williams in the Cubs core.
“You’re kind of on the fence with that because you would like to see, if possible, some guys retained, but I think this particular group had its run, got to the point where they were not consistent with where they should be, performance-wise, and they got to be pretty predictable,” he said. “So you take your loss, you chalk that up and you move on.”
https://chicago.suntimes.com/cubs/2021/8/10/22618337/cubs-billy-williams-anthony-rizzo-kris-bryant-trade-deadline?fbclid=IwAR0qwGIF7SC2fer96LJjzNNCF5L7Me2gsnELzK3YRTPP89m6yLwdCvhlEWY
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Great career and what a memorable part of the greatest window of Cubs history. Thanks for the great memories, Jake! Best wishes for him in his future life.
What a weird life for a professional athlete. Professionally washed up at age 35, when most of his life is still ahead of him. What does he do next? I don't envy being in that position, that's for sure. Also weird to have been so good, so great, so respected; and then to go out being so bad, and with this much fan rancor. Kind of sad.
A complicated and variably imperfect person, as are we all. I'd like to remember the best of him and appreciate the best of his qualities, as I'd also hope people do for complicated and variably imperfect me.
Arrieta at his 2015 peak was historically good. What a fun season that was. I wonder whether the innings that he pumped out in 2015 took more out of his arm than I realized then. I'll never forget that complete-game wildcard 11K/0BB shutout in Pittsburgh in 2015. He was still good but never THAT good again thereafter, even in the WS season. His ERA was in pretty steady decline since that season:
1.77 > 3.10 > 3.53 > 3.96 > 4.64 > 5.08 > 6.88. Usually careers don't have that steady a trajectory; more downs and ups and plateaus and dips. But man he was on the peak before the kind of accelerating decline.
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At least JD and Boog will no longer have to come up with flimsy reasons for Jake's poor showings.
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Also, good riddance, Jake. I loved that guy once upon a time, but what a worthless d-bag he was in his return.
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Willson to the IL helps our chances at a better pick. Also means there’s a good chance our “team leaders” graphic will still show Baez and Bryant (HR, RBI, runs, batting average) for the rest of the year. (Ortega will oust Bryant for BA if he gets enough ABs to qualify.)
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Kyle Ryan DFA’d as well, Romine activated from DL, Contreras to DL, and Ryan Meisinger called up…
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One response to Mooney’s piece on Arrieta…
Theodore P.
5h ago
1. “I’d love you to take your mask off. I don’t think anybody’s around you.”
2. WTF is that, Patrick? Seriously. You start this column with that non sequitur utterly devoid of context? Did anything precede that statement? Did the reporter respond? Did anyone challenge Jake on that statement? And why is it in the column at all? Oh, I got it. Too piss off a lot of us! Sure. Like we needed further reason to be pissed off after watching Jake completely suck for something like the 10th outing in a row. I get it. Still, it strikes me as complete bullshit for you to include it here. It truly smacks of yellow journalism. You’re better than that. Aren’t you?
3. 2021 Jake is pure sadness. He was one badass MFer at the peak of The Greatest Era In Chicago Cubs History. Now he is one of the worst pitchers in baseball. He’s gone from John Wayne to Barney Fife. Sad. Someone has to put a stop to this. Please. It's torturous for everyone involved — except the opponents.
I agree with all of that except for the part about Mooney being better than that.
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With Jake release, assuming that none of the call up have refused the shot the Cubs could get over 85% now with just Heyward and Bote left on team COVID.
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So long Jake...
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Baez was the 9th pick as well and next years draft is supposed to be pretty deep.
I mean the Cubs right now might be the least talented team in baseball. I think there is a pretty decent shot that they out stink those 5 teams.
The Cubs remaining schedule
Marlins 3 games
KC 3 games
Rockies 3 games
Min 4 games
Pit 6 games
If the Cubs can tank those games catching the Pirates might not be impossible.
I think "might be" is about as charitable a comment I've heard in a long time.
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Baez was the 9th pick as well and next years draft is supposed to be pretty deep.
I mean the Cubs right now might be the least talented team in baseball. I think there is a pretty decent shot that they out stink those 5 teams.
The Cubs remaining schedule
Marlins 3 games
KC 3 games
Rockies 3 games
Min 4 games
Pit 6 games
If the Cubs can tank those games catching the Pirates might not be impossible.
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At present standings, Cubs would draft 10th. I believe in case of ties, they will lose any, since they had a winning record last year; I believe draft-order ties are determined by previous season's records.
Cubs have 52 wins. They are "chasing" the Rockies (51); Nationals and Twins (50); Royals (49); and Marlins (48).
*The worst-4 teams all have 41 or fewer wins, so there is no real chance the Cubs will get into the top 4.
*But moving up a variable number of spots seems possible.
Some context for me, Schwarber, Almora, and Happ were pick numbers 4, 6, and 9. Not sure what insight that context provides, exactly; positive is that all of those three had some very significant talent and potential, and were justifiably objects of considerable optimism and hope for years.
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We have plenty of pitchers who can get lit up, some of whom could in theory have a future with the team and might learn something from the experience. And all of whom are likely not anti-vaxxers.
OK. No further discussion between us needed.
I think we keep him around to keep sucking and losing games. Why let some up and comer win a few games and drop a few spots in the draft. It's a lost season. Let them lose.
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I thought losing was good for the team now? Why would we want to release a bad pitcher that can still draw fans because of what he did in the past?
We have plenty of pitchers who can get lit up, some of whom could in theory have a future with the team and might learn something from the experience. And all of whom are likely not anti-vaxxers.
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Can we please just release his ass already? I feel no sentiment towards the guy based on his on-field performance because he's pretty consistently been an a-hole off it.
I thought losing was good for the team now? Why would we want to release a bad pitcher that can still draw fans because of what he did in the past?
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Patrick Mooney
@PJ_Mooney
· 1h
“I’d love you to take your mask off,” Jake Arrieta told a reporter on a video conference after a 10-0 loss while giving an answer about hoping to mentor young pitchers. https://theathletic.com/2766048/2021/08/12/how-much-longer-will-the-cubs-stick-with-jake-arrieta/
Can we please just release his ass already? I feel no sentiment towards the guy based on his on-field performance because he's pretty consistently been an a-hole off it.
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Dillon Maples is beginning a rehab assignment at Iowa.
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Trevor Megill optioned to Iowa after game one.
I think that Kyle Ryan is back as the 27th man for game 2.
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Rowan Wick activated before game 2.
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I would guess that winning percentage will go up. But not by much...
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The Cubs are now 2-8 since the trade deadline.
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08/10/21 Chicago Cubs recalled LHP Justin Steele from Iowa Cubs.
08/10/21 Chicago Cubs optioned LHP Kyle Ryan to Iowa Cubs.
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Steele’s first start now scheduled for Tuesday.
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Anybody notice that Madrigal's given first name is "Nicklaus"?
That is the way it is pronounced in the Netherlands. My uncle Claus was actually named Niclaus. Spelling was not firm, and others spelled it Nicklaus.
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https://theathletic.com/2754766/2021/08/06/whats-wrong-with-new-cubs-reliever-codi-heuers-sinker-for-one-its-not-actually-a-sinker/
Nice article. I particularly appreciate how practical Hottovy always sounds in these articles.
"“When we acquire guys like this, it’s not about getting him and overhauling all he does,” Hottovy said. “It’s more about can we make minor, incremental changes that can really make a difference without having to do all that stuff. We’re forming a relationship and getting an understanding of what he’s even exposed to.”"
“It’s baby steps,” Hottovy said. “He throws one fastball right now, so just giving him two becomes complex. When to use them, how to use them, all that. Starting with the four-seam is important for me because that’s what he normally throws. Getting it to move more efficiently and have better pitch data, movement, all that stuff. Then we add in the two-seam, a pitch that has more run.”
I think the concept of incremental adjustment on what's already there makes good sense to me. As does the concept of adjusting/improving one pitch now (the 4-seam), and then working in the development of the 2-seam during the offseason and next spring, one step at a time, seems so sensible.
I know there's been lots of talk about seam-shifted-wake, or whatever, and how pitch-lab might understand/analyze and optimize Arrieta-Williams-Davis into effective starters. That obviously didn't work. So the pitch-lab stuff obviously can only do so much. But I think I'm a believer that Hottovy is a good coach, and an asset for the organization.
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Cubs are now 10th in the draft order and only 2 games "out" of the 7th pick. If they keep losing the 5 pick is within reach.
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Cubs going 6 man rotation and promoting Steele.
Source:
Patrick Mooney
@PJ_Mooney
Justin Steele will be promoted from Triple A and make his next start vs. Milwaukee at Wrigley Field as part of a 6-man rotation. With so much flexibility in 2022, the Cubs are also making evaluations on Adbert Alzolay and what a next core could look like.
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Cubs going 6 man rotation and promoting Steele.
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The majority of Sullivan's articles suggest their author is a snarky douche.
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False alarm...Sullivan sent out this follow-up tweet a few minutes later, then deleted both tweets.
I'm shocked! Paul Sullivan has always been such a reliable source. (My disdain for Sullivan knows almost no bounds).
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I guess it’s too much to ask for Heyward to get DFA’ed right?
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Deichmann takes Jake Marisnick's #6
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08/06/21 Chicago Cubs placed RF Jason Heyward on the 10-day injured list. Left index finger inflammation.
08/06/21 Chicago Cubs recalled 1B Greg Deichmann from Iowa Cubs.
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Didn't make any sense to call up Davis. Glad it isn't happening.
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False alarm...Sullivan sent out this follow-up tweet a few minutes later, then deleted both tweets.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E8Hjf7UXsAk1Yxn?format=jpg&name=small)
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There is no sensible reason to call him up right now.
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Brennan Davis sighting at Wrigley per Sullivan...
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He was a last minute scratch last night...so this was suspected...
Arrieta DFA, with Steele callup imminent?
That’s the dream.
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He was a last minute scratch last night...so this was suspected...
Arrieta DFA, with Steele callup imminent?
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According to BN, Greg Deichmann being recalled for today’s game.
No announcement of corresponding move.
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I think that’s a fair read on Ricketts, and one I agree with.
I also think it is entirely appropriate to lampoon the man when he cries poor or does not spend to market-appropriate levels. He doesn’t get to pretend to care about building a juggernaut of a team while spending significantly less than $200M on payroll.
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Ricketts won't feel the same as you, not with that kind of attitude about spending.
In a way I feel bad for Ricketts. The Cubs are clearly in a much better situation than when he bought the team. They have spent money on players, facilities, development and he, for the most, stays out of the baseball ops way. This is what you want in an owner. At the same time post Darvish the Cubs pulled back on spending and the situation the Cubs are in has a lot to do with him and baseball ops. I forgot who put the Twitter poll question up, but the asked is Tom a hero or villain. My answer was both. He deserves both scorn and praise. They are clearly better owners than the Tribune.
I watched the Tom's Marquee interview. I think they will spend money, whenever the off-season happens. I think they will build a team with short term money that can compete for the division in the same way the 2021 team was set up. It won't resemble the current Cubs team, but it will have fatal flaws as well that will lead to another sell off. 2023 should be better though. They will have more young guys on that team and it will be a better version on 2014. My only question is where does the next Bryant come from. That is what this team is really missing, the next really great Cub player. Maybe it is Davis or one of the teenagers, but I think that is still the missing piece to the puzzle. 2024 should hopefully be when things get fun again.
All of that depends on what the owners due to ruin the game in the next CBA. If they continue to make it harder for teams to spend on amateurs I will be more worried about the rebuil/retool/reset (whatever re- word makes you feel better). The Cubs picked a path, they just need to execute it now and not try short circuit the rebuild unless you are talking about somebody like Soto or his talent level.
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Cubs talk podcast is a fantastic listen today. Kap has Kevin Goldstein on
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- the Cubs cold spend $300 million and still make massive profits
- every team could spend $200
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I kinda want him as the GM.
Ricketts won't feel the same as you, not with that kind of attitude about spending.
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Cubs talk podcast is a fantastic listen today. Kap has Kevin Goldstein on
- He thinks the Cubs did well in trades even with being the obvious low guys on Kilian.
- He thinks 2024 is when the Cubs exit the rebuild.
- intrigued by Hoerner as a CF more than SS
- the Cubs cold spend $300 million and still make massive profits
- every team could spend $200
I kinda want him as the GM.
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If I’m watching games for the rest of the year, or checking box scores, who should I be paying most attention to? Which players on the current roster do you all think are most likely to be a factor in 2023 and beyond, when we might be competitive again?
Do you get the ACL Cubs and Dominican League on your cable system?
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I’m assuming you mean not established
Wisdom- can he get the K’s down and continue to hit the ball hard
Ortega- maybe a platoon/reserve OF
Happ- can he rebound
Alzolay, Steele, Thompson- can they start
Wick, Rodriguez, Jewell, Maples, Heuer, Rucker, Megill, any bullpen guy they throw out there.
Slim pickings.
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If I’m watching games for the rest of the year, or checking box scores, who should I be paying most attention to? Which players on the current roster do you all think are most likely to be a factor in 2023 and beyond, when we might be competitive again?
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Jed doing damage control on Marauee pregame.
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I believe that differences between management and players can easily stem from lack of communications between agent-player, but I believe that the largest source is the differences between what management thinks a player is worth, and what the agent/player think they can get on the open market.
If management thinks that a player will be worth 5 - 70 to him (or thinks that the player will not get an offer over that amount, and the player thinks he will receive 7 - 150 (whether that is his own number or one that comes from his agent), bad communications are likely to result.
Which side is right probably depends upon the particular manager or the particular agent/player.
I doubt that hard feelings will not factor into future negotiations nearly as much as offers from other teams. In the last analysis, I don't think that the majority of players give substantial home team discounts, but rather go with any offer that is substantially higher than the others, regardless of the team.
For lower level players, factors other than money probably carry more weight. A reliever may sign with the team that promises (or at least he expects) to make him a starter. or a marginal position player might sign with the team that has a hole at that particular position. But I think for most players, money has the last word.
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craig - I believe when Hoyer first was appointed he said he expected to take maybe a year to select a GM. And I think he said he expected to be someone outside the organization in order to get fresh perspective. So nothing surprising in the process so far.
Thanks for the reminder, Ron. "Outside the organization" seems wise.
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I wonder what the process is for GM and president? Will Hoyer try to pursue and hire a GM after the season? Will he just continue as the combo president/GM? I wonder how much time/space Ricketts will give him?
craig - I believe when Hoyer first was appointed he said he expected to take maybe a year to select a GM. And I think he said he expected to be someone outside the organization in order to get fresh perspective. So nothing surprising in the process so far.
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I wonder what the process is for GM and president? Will Hoyer try to pursue and hire a GM after the season? Will he just continue as the combo president/GM? I wonder how much time/space Ricketts will give him?
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Putting together the pieces
Rizzo was offered an extension in spring training.
Baez last extension offer was pre-COVID spring training
Bryant last extension offer is unknown, but all the reports seem to go back to him being pre-arbitration.
I don't think Jed tried really hard, TBH.
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https://theathletic.com/2746929/2021/08/02/rosenthal-rays-discussed-creative-possibilities-in-talks-with-cubs-for-kris-bryant-and-craig-kimbrel/?source=dailyemail
Interesting for-pay article about Rays talks.
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Thanks for your thoughts, reb. I guess I'm thinking that where confusion for players might arise is that agents perhaps don't consistently keep them apprised of discussions, or all of them. --craig
I agree. Seems like more athletes are switching agents these days due to dissatisfaction with representation.
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...Also, I would not put much emphasis on what’s a “formal” or written vs. verbal offer. This is not like buying a house where you probably will never deal with other side ever again. These folks have ongoing dealings and relationships, so they talk and talk and talk and, when they have a deal or close to a deal, it’s then reduced to writing. Nobody is going to slip an extra Grand into the “formal” offer. ...
Thanks for your thoughts, reb. I guess I'm thinking that where confusion for players might arise is that agents perhaps don't consistently keep them apprised of discussions, or all of them.
I'd guess boundaries discussions happen well before anything close to an informal offer does. For example, injury and injury-risk impacts market value. For a club to give a guaranteed deal a year of two prior to FA, they expect some cost-reduction (relative to FA price) in order to take on the risk. Two years before Arrieta hit FA, I'd assume a boundary discussion would have addressed whether Boras was interested in exchanging some cost-reduction in exchange for the security of getting an extension now. If Boras says no, and Theo knows he won't pay full FA-top-ticket for a pitcher with two years of possible injury waiting for him, does Theo even both to make an offer, informal or not?
Or Noah Syndegaard: Agent, do you want a short deal so that he can prove himself and hit the market again? Or want a long a deal with as many guaranteed dollars as possible?
I'm just imagining there are early-level preliminary discussion way before "offers" are discussed.
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Rizzo compared Hoyer's comments to bad break up and saying you're fine when you're not fine. He also said no one signed so maybe their is a common denominator and if you wanted to dig into that you could.
Pretty big diss on the Professor there.
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https://theathletic.com/2747405/2021/08/03/scouting-the-cubs-new-prospects-from-their-trade-deadline-sell-off-im-excited-about-whats-in-store/?source=emp_shared_article
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Rizzo compared Hoyer's comments to bad break up and saying you're fine when you're not fine. He also said no one signed so maybe their is a common denominator and if you wanted to dig into that you could.
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Rumblings suggest Baez could be back in time for spring training.
Brett Taylor at Bleacher Nation happens to have a comment on that in today's effort.
Which reminds me, the drip-drip of the offseason? It could be even worse this year, as teams will not want to make major moves before the CBA is in place, and if that doesn’t happen before December 1, then they *can’t* make moves until it’s done, and that might not be until February or March. So I guess then maybe we will get the crazy crush of free agency right before Spring Training anyway …
My view is similar to his. Bargaining talks will not even get serious until 2022 spring training does not begin on time.
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I could see Bryant holding the whole call up debacle against the Cubs and just telling Boars not to even counter.
Maybe some of his buddies on the team were upset enough to stand with him on that?
I heard that he traded Kimbrel to the White Sox so he could stay in Chicago. Apparently his daughter is very sick with a hear condition and he expressed to management that he did not want to leave the area and have to change doctors and everything from Childrens Hospital. If that is the case and Hoyer only negotiated with the Sox for that reason I say kudos for being human. I am sure the Sox were not trying to fleece the Cubs because of this request either. For that I say Kudos to them too.
If the story is true.
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Other possibility is the realize how unpopular these trades are and are trying to place the blame on Bryant, Baez and Rizzo.
I suppose that is possible but the trades were really done favorably for the players. Each of those 3 was traded to the specific team (Baez and Bryant) or geographic area (Rizzo) that they were hoping for. The Cubs earned some brownie points from the players and their agents.
It somewhat begs the question if they maximized the returns while trying to do solids for the players but at the very least the players (and their representation) were appreciative.
Point being that I doubt Jed would try to turn this around on the players and make them look bad at this point. Anyone who understands how this works would applaud moving these players AT THIS POINT while it certainly is in the eyes of the beholder if the team maximized the returns. P
Rumblings suggest Baez could be back in time for spring training.
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Craig-I’ve never worked inside baseball industry or with player agents, so don’t know the real world customs there. But, more generally, one side (here, Hoyer) ordinarily can’t negotiate directly with the principal (here, the player) when the latter has representation (the agent). That is a real no-no (unless of course the agent tells the other side it’s okay to do that—probably never happens in baseball). It’s an ethical breach to undermine the rep’s authority by dealing directly with the principal. Boras, for example, has a legal fiduciary duty to Bryant. So, it undermines the entire framework by direct dealing of that sort. I suppose (maybe) Hoyer could tell Bryant, hey, I just made an offer to Boras—-call Boras. There, Hoyer arguably wouldn’t be “dealing” with Bryant but just telling him about an event. In any case, guessing that Boras wouldn’t like even that and would tell Hoyer to cut it out.
How much does the player want to know about club offers? Some, probably nothing….I hired you for that, just get me best deal. Others, a lot……keep me informed as much as possible.
Also, I would not put much emphasis on what’s a “formal” or written vs. verbal offer. This is not like buying a house where you probably will never deal with other side ever again. These folks have ongoing dealings and relationships, so they talk and talk and talk and, when they have a deal or close to a deal, it’s then reduced to writing. Nobody is going to slip an extra Grand into the “formal” offer.
Regarding counter-offer, sure, if an offer is so low and below expectations, the other side may well not counter. Probably Boras, among others, does that frequently if he’s dismissive of the numbers in the offer—-particularly as he’s rarely interested in a deal before the player a actually hits free agency. But, from what Hoyer said, he (Hoyer) think his offers were not lowball and merited a counter. Really a matter of tactics that probably differs from agent to agent.
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It was painful watching the Hoyer interview. Obviously, he was extremely tired, but to me it was not like watching a very tired Theo.
Theo did not throw shade on individuals, but Hoyer did for no good reason, in my opinion. I'd guess his comments will not endear him to Rizzo, Bryant or Javy (or their reps or family members) and I'm not the least bit sure about what he - or we - got out of his frustrated comments.
By the end of the interview, Hoyer may have felt better getting his emotions off his chest, but I'd say it was a bush league thing to do and certainly unbecoming of a top executive, particularly when it was clear that all negotiations were to be held confidential.
I've been looking for reasons to believe Hoyer is the right guy to lead this organization; however, I'm not yet seeing the light at the end of that tunnel. We may have obtained quite a bounty in trades this year, but it will be YEARS before we know. It would be nice if we could see proof of his executive leadership soon. HIs recent comments make me feel less sanguine that he's the right guy!
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The way Hoyer made it sound, these were firm, formal offers. If those were not transmitted in writing, that qualifies as pretty serious malfeasance. I cannot see that.
I can absolutely see Boras, for one, not even presenting an offer to Bryant if it didn't meet some threshold he had established.
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Kaplan is interviewing Rizzo tomorrow at 9. I’m just going to guess that Rizzo isn’t in love with Jed’s comments today.
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I know this is an unpopular view right now, but I really do not understand the cynicism about this group (ownership and management) that completely transformed an organization that had failed achieve success for so many decades, including through spending an enormous amount of personal money to accomplish that. Criticism of specific decisions I do understand. But that's very different than what's going on among some folks here. I don't want to offend Jeff, but I appreciate that he's NOT doing that. Same with Dave23. I value the measured, reasoned and thoughtful assessments they are providing during this emotionally difficult period.
People have been complaining a lot about the failure of key players to perform up to expectations, but now that they have been traded, the complaint is that the Cubs screwed up by not opening the vault to keep them. This after at least two these guys apparently turned down what seem to have been reasonable offers, given the circumstances (Baez something like 6 years for 160-180 million, Rizzo 5 years $70 million offer I believe). And according to Hoyer without a counter offers in at least some instances. And all of this while publicly proclaiming, with great emotion, their commitment to remaining Cubs, while simultaneous saying it was out of their control (how exactly?).
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reb, from your negotiating experience, what's your guess on how much agents tell athletes about discussion or offers from teams? And how much discussion goes on apart from formal offers? Agents are busy. Perhaps agents would prefer guys don't take home-town discounts? Aren't agents often told by players that the agent is entrusted to get the best deal, and the player doesn't want to be distracted? Perhaps especially if there are discussions, but verbal or email discussion that don't involve formal final written offers?
I guess I'm wondering if Bryant doesn't necessarily even know what was discussed or offered or counter-offered? Or, whether Theo talked to Boras about Arrieta 15 times, "would you consider XYZ...", and Boras told him every time "don't send me anything for Jake
for <$200, it starts at $200, otherwise we're going to take it to FA and test the market". So Theo doesn't send him anything; Boras can tell Arrieta "he never even sent us a proposal", and Theo and Hoyer can likewise say "he never sent us a counterproposal"?
I'm thinking this not only from the Cubs context, but also in the context of Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Part of his criticism was that the Packers hadn't communicated with expiring veterans; or hadn't made offers to one or more who wanted to stay and would have accepted sub-market deal(s). Is it possible that both sides are true? The team was negotiating with agent, and agent said "no, you deal with me. Don't try to pull Jordy's heartstrings, and don't try to tell him you'll give him this half-market deal."
I guess I'm wondering if agents often don't want teams talking directly to players. Yes, the player hires the agent and the agent serves the player. And the player can sometimes tell the agent what he wants, even if it's not best deal. (Bobby Portis just re-signed with the Milwaukee Bucks for what is certainly a substantially sub-market deal.)
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Other possibility is the realize how unpopular these trades are and are trying to place the blame on Bryant, Baez and Rizzo.
Whether there were counter-offers or no counter-offers, that’s a factual matter. Happened or didn’t happen. Let’s see if any of the parties dispute what Hoyer said about that.
If no counter-offers, that speaks for itself. There is no other inference other than the players did not want to negotiate with Hoyer and wanted to go into free agency—-which of course is their right.
Once you have the facts, then you can cast blame, not cast blame, whatever. But, Hoyer revealed a factual element. It gives a fuller picture. So, that’s helpful to understanding what happened. Maybe there’s a contra-explanation to come. We’ll see.
I’m not too interested in Hoyer’s motive. More generally, a lot of really important and interesting info comes out because somebody had a motive of one kind or the other. Whatever the motive, it’s the facts that matter. In any case, the interview doesn’t come off as Hoyer payback, at least to me.
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4. Just as he seemed surprised at the way extension-talks had gone, he likewise seemed surprised that the offense wasn't good. Struck me as the exact same spin that Theo has had for the previous 4 years. We brought in these great players and great hitters, they are talented and we know that from days past; I am surprised that the offense isn't great. It kinda always seemed to me that Theo mis-evaluated; he kept saying how talented and great they are, and year after year after year was surprised that they weren't better. New coach, new attitude, more practice. Just constantly over-estimating their capacity, and then being annually surprised that they didn't get better. Jed had the exact same "I'm surprised our offense isn't better" perspective as Theo.
I think it’s more of a “sum of the parts” thing being not as good as the individual components.
On paper, these WERE really good players. For me, it’s a true baseball mystery why Cubs failed to have a better offense with the parts we had. Hoyer doesn’t get it because IT’S A TRUE BASEBALL MYSTERY.
Yeah, too many Ks, not enough contact, blah, blah, but the club just had a knack for not getting baserunners in and going cold inexplicably and underachieving offensively. Hoyer has access to every piece of data possibly available but pretty clear from this interview nothing seems to explain to Hoyer the offense woes.
For me, it’s a “that’s baseball” mystery and must be frustrating when you are one of the folks who put it together.
When a baseball executive does an interview like this, there are two possible extremes: he/she can sugarcoat stuff with the typical PR baloney, on one end, or he/she can spill their guts and give the real lowdown. The latter basically never happens and the former happens too often. Thought that Hoyer interview was a very interesting middle ground with honesty from his perspective and a few nuggets. If anyone prefers happy talk instead, they won’t much care for this one.
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Other possibility is the realize how unpopular these trades are and are trying to place the blame on Bryant, Baez and Rizzo.
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3. He pushed back hard on the contract-offers. I believe what he said, and I loved the honesty. I do admit it left me feeling like, "Jed, have you not worked with power agents before, and are you unequal to the task? Were you unable to communicate with the agents or the players themselves?" Should you really be acting surprised by how it went? I thought the way he talked about the players and the contract negotiations did not at all suggest that Hoyer is interesting in trying to resign them this winter.
Here’s the thing that jumped out at me: Hoyer said he didn’t get counter-offers back to the very good (his view) contract offers he made. Seemed that kind of shocked him.
There is no legal duty for either side to negotiate about this. But, when there is such a duty, say, as in cba discussions, the failure to make a counter-offer is an indicia of bad faith bargaining. In other words, the parties can’t get anywhere in the absence of some kind of back-and- forth.
Think that (I’m guessing) Hoyer kind of looked at the lack of counter-offers from the players as kind of bad faith on their part. Here they are telling media how much they’d like to stay and yet, privately, they are NOT doing the most basic thing that is a foundation of actual negotiations: engaging the other side. So, can see how that is frustrating to Hoyer. Thought that really came out in the interview.
Notably, Hoyer feels his offers were good market value offers. I find the combo of a market offer (Hoyer claims) and a lack of a actual negotiations, encouraging going forward once the players see what the market will bear for them. Maybe Hoyer’s offers will then look like a good basis to make a COUNTER-OFFER to the Cubs—-and somebody or two returns to Cubs. Who knows.
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Keith Law said every trade the Cubs made were good and that there were no head scratchers and in total they did great.
I think the only real losses were probably Bryant and Kimbrel.
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Morgan - and those of his ilk - are going to be put out of business by the three batter minimum.
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Adam Morgan is another arb guy.
Yeah, looks like Morgan’s minor league stint this season cost him enough service time to delay his free agency.
Could be a non-tender candidate, depending how he does rest of the way.
Morgan strikes me as a good example of a reliever on a bad 1970s era Cubs bullpen——like some kind of reincarnation of bad times. Maybe that’s unfair, I don’t know.
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Adam Morgan is another arb guy.
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Aside from Contreras, not too sure that any of the other four arb guys will even be offered arb.
Three are pitchers: Holder, Ryan, Brothers. Two have been bad lately and one is a mystery man. Could see a non-tender and re-sign with one or two, maybe.
The fourth is Happ, who is probably looking near $5 arb. He’s in such a funk and is a FA after 2023 in any case. Think he has to show something Aug/Sept to get tendered.
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It's closer to $60.
I’ve only seen people quote the $80 million on Twitter. I wonder if the are the benefits into it. I haven’t added it up.
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If the Cubs offer all of their arbitration eligible guys contracts they have about $80 million tied up next year.
It's closer to $60.
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It's not so much about what Hoyer says but rather how he and the development team perform over the next couple of years. It's clear that success require a combination of effective player development, smart trades, and judicious acquisition of FAs. Those are all ultimately Hoyer's responsibility and he will be judged on whether the club has another competitive window open starting in 2023 (or 2024 at the latest).
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Really essential listening to Hoyer on ESPN 100 Kap and Hood today. Goes thru trade deadline, recent Cubs history, and more. If link doesn’t work, another link at Bleacher Nation.
https://t.co/GZugeqzfZg?amp=1
This is terrible from a fan’s point of view, IMO, because the normal guy can’t make heads or tails of what Hoyer is getting at, if he’s getting at anything at all. I know absolutely nothing about this aspect of the game but Hoyer does not inspire confidence. He goes all over the place in the interview, you don’t know what the heck he’s talking about.
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Really essential listening to Hoyer on ESPN 100 Kap and Hood today. Goes thru trade deadline, recent Cubs history, and more. If link doesn’t work, another link at Bleacher Nation.
https://t.co/GZugeqzfZg?amp=1
Link works, being at 12-13 minutes. Helpful.
Not a super inspiring interview. He sounds like a frustrated, kinda discouraged guy.
1. Didn't talk at all but any of the specific prospects acquired.
2. Kinda said he couldn't give a clear plan, the way Theo had initially, because he's still working through it. Mentioned that with CBA to be determined, it's hard to plan. Also mentioned how the current CBA, in which comp picks are at ~75 instead of ~35, impacted the decision to trade now. But yeah, was not able or willing to articulate a plan or a schedule or anything.
3. He pushed back hard on the contract-offers. I believe what he said, and I loved the honesty. I do admit it left me feeling like, "Jed, have you not worked with power agents before, and are you unequal to the task? Were you unable to communicate with the agents or the players themselves?" Should you really be acting surprised by how it went? I thought the way he talked about the players and the contract negotiations did not at all suggest that Hoyer is interesting in trying to resign them this winter.
4. Just as he seemed surprised at the way extension-talks had gone, he likewise seemed surprised that the offense wasn't good. Struck me as the exact same spin that Theo has had for the previous 4 years. We brought in these great players and great hitters, they are talented and we know that from days past; I am surprised that the offense isn't great. It kinda always seemed to me that Theo mis-evaluated; he kept saying how talented and great they are, and year after year after year was surprised that they weren't better. New coach, new attitude, more practice. Just constantly over-estimating their capacity, and then being annually surprised that they didn't get better. Jed had the exact same "I'm surprised our offense isn't better" perspective as Theo.
5. There was no question asked about whether he plans to hire a general manager.
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Those guys can't be anticipated to play on the 2023 team. They can be hoped to improve and show a lot, though, so that they look like big value.
I didn't mean to imply they would be, but if they can have a Brennan Davis like trajectory, at least 1-2 of them, then I think you could see more long term investments put forward that would give the Cubs a punchers chance at winning the division and not having a sell off if they fail. If the development of the younger guys stalls then it is going to be a longer rebuild.
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I think some of the teenage guys the Cubs acquired are going to have to take a huge step forward as well. 2023 competing, which would be more like trying to win the division, will require everything to go perfect. ...
Those guys can't be anticipated to play on the 2023 team. They can be hoped to improve and show a lot, though, so that they look like big value.
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Agree. Progress from some of the young guys is essential for trying to contend in 23. If Steele, Kilian, Alzolay, Brailyn, Thompson, and Jensen all bust next year, and Brennan Davis looks like the next Brett Jackson, 23 is too soon.
I think some of the teenage guys the Cubs acquired are going to have to take a huge step forward as well. 2023 competing, which would be more like trying to win the division, will require everything to go perfect.
The Cubs also really need to get into the top 10 since the Mets are getting the 11 pick for not signing Rocker.
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The Cubs can shoot for better players. They don't need to be cheap, they can pay a high AAV to somebody like Syndergaard to let him reestablish health and dominance. ....
Yeah, taking a shot for a high-ceiling guy like Syndergaard would make a lot of sense. If you hit, terrific. If he busts, you weren't going to win this year anyway. If he's good, he's a sign-and-trade value, too. That's a good concept there, Blue.
...I think it is getting clearer that they aren't going to try and be good next year and 2023 will depend on how the young players are doing.
Agree. Progress from some of the young guys is essential for trying to contend in 23. If Steele, Kilian, Alzolay, Brailyn, Thompson, and Jensen all bust next year, and Brennan Davis looks like the next Brett Jackson, 23 is too soon.
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Thanks, Blue, that's how I see it. ≥$70 to spend, if they can get value. A rotation starter; a 1B; one or two OF guys; one or two relievers. For example, three $20M guys, maybe a $10M guy, and a couple of relievers,
I don't think the spending will necessarily be about budget; I think it may be more about value? It may be hard to got $100-worth of good-value FA's to come and sign with this roster this year. So go for good-value, but if you can't find it, it may be best to save it for later. (Theo had $$ for Tanaka; when Tanaka didn't sign, Theo saved it.).
*IF* you can sign guy(s) who you think have potential long-term value, AND you hit, that would be great. When Theo signed Chatwood, he thought he had potential to emerge as a multi-year high-capacity not-old starter, who might be a quality multi-year starter at <$20M price in his career prime. That's what he thought in signing Edwin Jackson, too. (I'm not sure Theo and his scouts were real great at ID'ing good pitching value....). I could imagine HOyer trying to target somebody like that? A 3-4 year guy who's not old, and who *IF* he emerged as a good rotation guy could be part of the rotation skeleton in contending years? Hendry signed Ted Lilly, wasn't a stud but was a skeleton guy for a couple of years.
Or Hoyer could be going for shorter guys? Feldman, Maholm, Jason Hammel type pickups come to mind from previous rebuild. He could go with pure 1-year sign-and-trade guy, but I'd imagine maybe somebody worth a 2-year deal might be better? Could use him for 2nd year or extend if he's pretty decent; or *if* he's used as a sign-and-trade, having the second year could add value relative to a pure rental?
The hope, of course, would be that the guys you spend on are good. If you're signing Edwin Jackson, Jason Heyward, Milton Bradley, Jake Arrieta type guys, those have neither Nowacrat nor Buildican nor sign-and-trade function.
The Cubs can shoot for better players. They don't need to be cheap, they can pay a high AAV to somebody like Syndergaard to let him reestablish health and dominance. The years are going to be more important than the actual cash I think they are going to be looking at more 1-2 year deals. I think it is getting clearer that they aren't going to try and be good next year and 2023 will depend on how the young players are doing.
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Really essential listening to Hoyer on ESPN 100 Kap and Hood today. Goes thru trade deadline, recent Cubs history, and more. If link doesn’t work, another link at Bleacher Nation.
https://t.co/GZugeqzfZg?amp=1
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...they have about $80 million tied up next year. That could be $70-120 million to spend in free agency on short term guys free agents or salary dumps. ...
SP- ...FA..
Bullpen- Maybe a couple vets get signed ....
1B- FA. ...
LF- Happ or FA
CF- Kermaier/Ortega. Kiermarier at $20 million remaining over the next 2 years could bring some decent prospects from the Rays for eating the contract
RF-FA. Maybe Heyward is given away for free and eating is salary or just DFA
You could grab a decent starter or 2 and decent OF options. .... Maybe 2023 looks like 2015, but more than likely 2024 is the year the Cubs are targeting.
Thanks, Blue, that's how I see it. ≥$70 to spend, if they can get value. A rotation starter; a 1B; one or two OF guys; one or two relievers. For example, three $20M guys, maybe a $10M guy, and a couple of relievers,
I don't think the spending will necessarily be about budget; I think it may be more about value? It may be hard to got $100-worth of good-value FA's to come and sign with this roster this year. So go for good-value, but if you can't find it, it may be best to save it for later. (Theo had $$ for Tanaka; when Tanaka didn't sign, Theo saved it.).
*IF* you can sign guy(s) who you think have potential long-term value, AND you hit, that would be great. When Theo signed Chatwood, he thought he had potential to emerge as a multi-year high-capacity not-old starter, who might be a quality multi-year starter at <$20M price in his career prime. That's what he thought in signing Edwin Jackson, too. (I'm not sure Theo and his scouts were real great at ID'ing good pitching value....). I could imagine HOyer trying to target somebody like that? A 3-4 year guy who's not old, and who *IF* he emerged as a good rotation guy could be part of the rotation skeleton in contending years? Hendry signed Ted Lilly, wasn't a stud but was a skeleton guy for a couple of years.
Or Hoyer could be going for shorter guys? Feldman, Maholm, Jason Hammel type pickups come to mind from previous rebuild. He could go with pure 1-year sign-and-trade guy, but I'd imagine maybe somebody worth a 2-year deal might be better? Could use him for 2nd year or extend if he's pretty decent; or *if* he's used as a sign-and-trade, having the second year could add value relative to a pure rental?
The hope, of course, would be that the guys you spend on are good. If you're signing Edwin Jackson, Jason Heyward, Milton Bradley, Jake Arrieta type guys, those have neither Nowacrat nor Buildican nor sign-and-trade function.
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There is a lot of emphasis on "legacy" in professional sports and that means championships won these days. I suspect that Baez, Rizzo, and Bryant all decided that their chances to achieve this were better with teams other than the Cubs. It's hard to fault that reasoning.
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One other factor is how much pressure the player's association puts on these guys to get the best contracts they can. I actually don't doubt the sincerity of Bryant, Rizzo, and Baez on wishing they could stay in Chicago. Still the PA hits home to the players how important it is to sign for as good of deals as they can, so everyone else behind them also gets good deals. Bryant himself was the Cubs' player rep for a long time, so he's probably even one of the ringleaders on that front. I'm sure for someone like Bryant, they'd love to stay in Chicago, but ideally the Cubs would be the team that makes the best offer.
Plus going back to the ego thing, I'm sure they all want to be paid more per year than Heyward.
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Those guys are probably going to get a major reality check this offseason.
Bryant was an MVP, ROY, MVP=7, and 4-time all-star.
Rizzo was top-20 MVP 5 years straight, twice finishing as high as MVP-4; 3-time all-star; 4-time gold-glove.
Baez finished MVP-2; 2-time all-star; and also has one gold-glove.
All three guys have been discussed and treated as superstars and celebrities in Chicago for years. I kinda wonder whether they've self-valued themselves as MVP-class superstars, and have assumed that MVP-class superstar contracts were going to come their way? And will now get their reality check?
Players often talk pridefully about "betting on myself" when they pass on good contract offers in order to reach FA. There's something about the athlete's competitive mind-set that wants to shoot for the top contract. Isn't accepting a lesser contract than Arenado, prior to FA, almost admitting or accepting that you're not as good? Once you hit FA and hit the market, reality-check sets in and of course agents settle for the best they can get.
It will be interesting to see what they do end up getting; obviously only the agents and Hoyer, maybe not even the players themselves, actually know. We'll never know how much weaker, or perhaps stronger, Cubs offers were relative to what the players get.
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So lets take Ricketts/Hoyer at their word. They want to win WS and build the next great team. That said I don't think they are going big game hunting in free agency next year, but I think they have money to spend.
If the Cubs offer all of their arbitration eligible guys contracts they have about $80 million tied up next year. That could be $70-120 million to spend in free agency on short term guys free agents or salary dumps. I think the team will look okish, but have fatal flaws leading to trades at the deadline again.
SP- Hendrix, FA, Alzolay, Steele, Thompson, Mills. The Cubs need to find out
Bullpen- Maybe a couple vets get signed but the need to sort out the bullpen arms in the minors.
1B- FA. Maybe Hosmer if the Padres can cover the last 2 years.
2B- Madrigal
SS- Hoerner
3B- Wisdom/Bote
C- Willson, unless an extension isn't happening.
LF- Happ or FA
CF- Kermaier/Ortega. Kiermarier at $20 million remaining over the next 2 years could bring some decent prospects from the Rays for eating the contract
RF-FA. Maybe Heyward is given away for free and eating is salary or just DFA
DH- Rotation of guys.
You could grab a decent starter or 2 and decent OF options. It wouldn't be a horrible team, but it isn't good either. More prospects are still brought in though. Maybe 2023 looks like 2015, but more than likely 2024 is the year the Cubs are targeting.
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That Jason Heyward contract...
Jesse Rogers
@JesseRogersESPN
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Let's just start with this idea: Don't you think they all sat down at some point -- KB for sure -- and said in some form or another whatever you're paying the rightfielder, I'll take some of that or more....Arrieta did that re Lester, why he walked. Its complicated (sort of)
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Rosenthal put out a piece on the Cubs/Rays talks
-For Bryant it would have Kiermaier + prospects not named Franco, Lowe, Bruajan, Baz, Wells
-For Bryant/Kimbrel it would have been Glasnow+ prospects.
Before people go off on not getting Glasnow. He's having TJS, which the Cubs knew was a possibility and will miss all of 2022. He's a free agent after 2023 and the 2023 Glasnow is probably something less than peak Glasnow.
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I agree.
Rogers is going to be on MLBN on High Heat in a few minutes, if anyone wants to watch...
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Those guys are probably going to get a major reality check this offseason.
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(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210802/ed97b1d3ff967d047365f0f262020ccf.jpg)
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(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210802/c9e70834a5abe9f22fdd3f06e2e37cb4.jpg)
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Friday and weekend was crazy, so I was doing more reading than posting. Most of you guys have already thought things through. But I'll add a couple of thoughts, some of which have probably already been made.
1. If you'd asked me a week or month ago how much we could get for 2-month rentals, Rizzo-Baez-Bryant, I'd not have expected we'd get a lot of talent back. Using milb's ranking, those three rentals harvested 5 guys in our top-16. Better than I expected. So I'm pleasantly surprised, that Baez was able to get a 1st-round-pick prospect back in return (who doesn't seem to have proven himself unable to actually hit yet.). And for Rizzo and Bryant to both get two top-16-caliber prospects each.
2. At one point, there'd been talk about whether the trade return would even be any better than keeping them and getting comp picks. The 5 top-16 prospects returned obviously are better than having received 3 comp picks taken in front of round 3, who wouldn't begin their pro careers until 2023.
3. I'm highly skeptical that K-machines like Canario, Deichmann, and Ball will ever hit enough to help a winning team. Guys who K a lot in low minors, that almost never seems to be a correctible disability.
4. I think Cubs evals sometimes differ, perhaps significantly, from some fangraphs/milb media evals. I imagine this difference in valuation to be more true or more relevant in regards to pitchers than players? I think of this particularly in the case of Bailey Horn, whose fangraphs ranking seemed much lower than the caliber of prospect Tepera could have returned. Perhaps Kilian and/or Heuer, too?
5. Plus I feel like the Cubs pitch-lab stuff has seemed to be somewhat effective (no hint yet that there is anything they can do with a hitter who doesn't have contact skill). In the cases of Kilian, Horn, and Heuer, and perhaps Vizcaino, Espinoza, and Palencia too, they may recognize some latent potential that pitch-lab may help to untap?
6. Madrigal seems an odd target, given that Hoerner has gold-glove 2B capacity. I don't trust Cub scouting for position players. But they obviously believe he can play the position. *IF* he proves out to be fine at 2B, I think adding an every-day upper-.700's-OPS starter is justifiable value. Build lineup skeleton one guy at a time. Perhaps a freakishly-gifted contact guy might also have a little more freedom to make adaptations to his offense? Perhaps he could choose to take more walks, if he decided to, and he might have potential to evolve into a consistent .370-OBP guy?
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KiLian, guys. One L. He's a pitcher. The fewer Ls, the better.
:):):). Thanks, Jeff.
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KiLian, guys. One L.
He's a pitcher. The fewer Ls, the better.
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Killian is a gap in Fangraphs. Longenhagen saw him in instructs last year and that is it. The stuff he is reporting is based off of other scouts and seems to be less (MPH and quality) than what others are.
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I think the scouts have missed Killian's increase in velocity and k rate in their rankings. His stats scream that he is ready, hopefully they translate to the next levels favorably.
Yeah, that's what I'm hoping, too. No indication that Fangraphs has processed those changes into their report. The milb report has some references to this season, but also includes phrasing "He could open 2021 in high Class A". So unclear how much of their scouting information and ranking is cut-and-paste from their off-season writeup, versus informed by the present season.
In either case, one would like to imagine the Cubs are informed about the present version of the guy. Hard to tell, though; and no evidence that the Cubs have very good scouting or player-evaluation skills.
If Killian is going to be a capable starter, you'd know by next summer, I'd think. I'm not looking for Degrom or Darvish. But a solid mid-rotation sub-4-ERA type guy, I think you'd have an idea if that's plausible. If I'm looking at free-agent signing post-2022, I'd think I'd already have an idea whether or not Killian could be a part of the rotation skeleton.
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On my drive in I caught the tail end of Kap interview with Jed. I find Jed a lot harder to read than Theo.
Only thing I believe is that Theo and Jed still talk regularly, sometimes as just friends but Jed also bounces ideas off of him. The trade deadline was the first time Theo missed it.
I missed the extension talk, but I guessed Jed really tried the core for not taking good offers. It could just be the Cubs trying to save face.
He has no clue on the timeline when the Cubs will be good again. The young guys will drive this when they are ready.
Kap just said Madrigal is part of the new core and they choose him over Crotchet.
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Ross said on Sunday that Nico Hoerner is “pretty far off” from getting back into game action.
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I think the scouts have missed Killian's increase in velocity and k rate in their rankings. His stats scream that he is ready, hopefully they translate to the next levels favorably.
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Don't forget Thompson in your skeleton possibilities. He has a chance to be a solid bottom of the rotation guy.
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You guys have beautifully talked through the trades and pickups, thanks for all the thoughts, analysis, and links and stuff.
In understanding getting a couple of ready/close guys (Madrigal, maybe Killian, Wicks in the draft, too..), I imagine Hoyer wants to assemble a skeleton. Add some capable players to build the skeleton, then spend on top-price FA stars, most of whom won't want to sign with a team that won't have a chance.
As the eternal optimist, I'm imagining that a year out, Killian, Wicks, Steele, Alzolay, Marquez, plus of course Hendricks, *IF* things went well that might hypothetically look like a potentially strong rotation skeleton? Perhaps a stud free agent might feel like *if* he was to join, that it could be a high-end long-term contender-legit rotation?
Lineup, that's tougher. I'm imagining hypothetically extending Contreras; having Madrigal and Hoerner both look like good team guys; hypothetically having Brennan Davis looking like a good player with some star-potential? Maybe/hopefully fine a good hitter who'd be willing to take your money this winter, even if next year isn't going to be a contender year yet? That might provide enough skeleton so that after 2022 season, that you could persuade a good FA hitter to sign?
You are indeed the eternal optimist.
I think the matter of just how close Killian might be is one of the more interesting questions of the moment. There's a pretty huge gap of opinion based on how much of a prospect he is, which as usual comes down to a gap between scouting and results. If you think Killian's raw stuff is good enough to make him a prospect, you wouldn't think there's much keeping him in the minors. He's 24, both his command and control are reportedly sharp, and there's not a lot of projection generally. If he's not "ready" now or very soon, he probably won't be in a year or two years.
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I think MLBPA looks at a hard payroll floor as an intra-management issue, not really a practical cba issue. Intra-management issues (small market vs. big market) just wouldn’t result in a high enough floor to impact salaries and, in any case, could only happen with a hard salary cap—-which union will not agree to unless they substantially lose bargaining power.
There is a reason why agents and big stars view their contracts as impacting other players, that is, as a union issue: there is a trickle down effect, but one that is diminishing somewhat based on newer considerations. What has happened, as everyone knows, is that the data revolution has shown clubs that players tend to hit free agency when future seasons are past their prime performance. Also, clubs don’t offer arb to guys who can be replaced by somebody else even at a modestly lower salary. Clubs have smartened up based on data.
So, the union will try, in part, to start addressing problems caused by the above. It won’t be solved in just one cba. Will require creative steps that can be built upon. A hard cap/floor is not a step in that direction.
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You guys have beautifully talked through the trades and pickups, thanks for all the thoughts, analysis, and links and stuff.
In understanding getting a couple of ready/close guys (Madrigal, maybe Killian, Wicks in the draft, too..), I imagine Hoyer wants to assemble a skeleton. Add some capable players to build the skeleton, then spend on top-price FA stars, most of whom won't want to sign with a team that won't have a chance.
As the eternal optimist, I'm imagining that a year out, Killian, Wicks, Steele, Alzolay, Marquez, plus of course Hendricks, *IF* things went well that might hypothetically look like a potentially strong rotation skeleton? Perhaps a stud free agent might feel like *if* he was to join, that it could be a high-end long-term contender-legit rotation?
Lineup, that's tougher. I'm imagining hypothetically extending Contreras; having Madrigal and Hoerner both look like good team guys; hypothetically having Brennan Davis looking like a good player with some star-potential? Maybe/hopefully fine a good hitter who'd be willing to take your money this winter, even if next year isn't going to be a contender year yet? That might provide enough skeleton so that after 2022 season, that you could persuade a good FA hitter to sign?
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Just how high do you think the small market teams are going to want to raise the cap? $50 million? $100 million? $150 million?
Since 2002 8 team total have gone over the CBT and only 4 teams have paid more than $10 million in taxes. It just isn’t something teams do unless they are World Series contenders. 2017 was the only year where more than 5 teams went over the cap. Teams treat it as a cap and the players union should get something for it.
In 2021
There are 5 teams with a payroll between $50-70 million.
7 team team between $70-100 million.
3 teams between $100-130 million.
4 between $130-150
5 between $150-180
5 between $180-200
1 above $200
2019
4 teams above $200 million
7 teams between $150-180 million
7 teams between $125-150’million
12 teams below $120 million
Now raising the cap to $300 million and let’s say teams spend to that might 3-4 teams that would approach it. Raising the salary floor to $120 million would get more money. It will also make the game more competitive, The players also need to get to free agency younger or shift money from vets to young guys. It will be a long battle and there is going to be a lot of issues that are going to be fought over.
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reb, I'd think including a floor would be helpful.
...As to the floor, the union knows there always will be clubs with low payrolls. Revenue sharing had basically zero impact on that. Neither side is much interested in a floor: owners because it exacerbates an internal fight among owners; union because they feel whatever owners would agree to will be ineffective re. actual spending. So, there will be other more meaningful avenues to fight over—-..
reb, not sure I follow. I do follow the thinking that they've got higher priorities, so the floor will not be something to fight over.
But I don't see why bumping the floor wouldn't be pretty relevant to union membership? A lot of union members play for low-spending teams. I'd think a lot of union members would benefit from floors that are significantly enriched.
Not a big factor, but that might also impact teams that are not especially small-market, but that are playing the tank game, too?
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It was profits and he has claimed it multiple times. I’m not sure I buy it.
The high spending teams minus the Dodgers have treated it like a near hard cap. MLBPA hired Craig Edwards from Fangraphs who has did a large majority of their prospect/trade value work on the site. If the MLBPA listens to him they have a much chance of getting a better deal that reflects the realities of how front offices work now and not 40 years ago.
Yes, some clubs have treated it as a hard cap——to the great consternation of the union. So, it would be counter-intuitive for the union to actually memorialize in law what they hate in de facto.
The de facto cap that exists now is a product of the union agreeing to abysmally low dollar thresholds that trigger the tax/penalties. That was a product of having non-labor non-professionals leading negotiations on the union side. So, the bargaining goal in next cba will be to raise substantially those thresholds. I have heard that even the owners were shocked by the thresholds that the union agreed to in current cba. Everybody on both sides know they will go up in a meaningful way. The fight will be how much.
As to the floor, the union knows there always will be clubs with low payrolls. Revenue sharing had basically zero impact on that. Neither side is much interested in a floor: owners because it exacerbates an internal fight among owners; union because they feel whatever owners would agree to will be ineffective re. actual spending. So, there will be other more meaningful avenues to fight over—-hopefully more creative ideas than last time around.
As to Wittenmyer, yeah, I don’t doubt he reported something like that—-but we’d have to believe Woodward and Bernstein met him in a parking garage with the info. Even insiders—the union, among others—have tried unsuccessfully to get hard numbers on profitability. It’s all guesswork.
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I think what Wittenmyre said is that Cubs OUTSPENT the Yankees one year.
He’s correct. That was in 2018.
Regarding a hard cap, with a spending floor——not going to happen. Doubtful that owners would even propose something like that, much less achieve that. MLBPA has been philosophically opposed to a hard cap since its existence. After agreeing to a bad contract (for the union), the notion it would agree to a hard cap next time around is mind-boggling.
It was profits and he has claimed it multiple times. I’m not sure I buy it.
The high spending teams minus the Dodgers have treated it like a near hard cap. MLBPA hired Craig Edwards from Fangraphs who has did a large majority of their prospect/trade value work on the site. If the MLBPA listens to him they have a much chance of getting a better deal that reflects the realities of how front offices work now and not 40 years ago.
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Craig-I’m talking about the plan when they came in based on what they saw at the time. Contreras was basically a nobody then. Schwarber convinced them he could be a catcher and soon, so they drafted him as a catcher. Then, Contreras emerged. Also well documented that Theo and staff didn’t think much of Baez when were in Boston. Lemahieu and Cashner, they were eager to get rid of, it seems. Farm system was mostly junk.
Rest of top 10 were Szczur, Chris Carpenter, Trey McNutt, Reggie Golden, Jay Jackson, etc. After that, bunch of nobodies.
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Cubs had four guys in starting lineup today hitting under the Mendoza line…not counting Duffy who’s hitting .226 and heading seriously south.
So, if you want to see a top 10 draft choice, I guess this is your lineup.
Happ is one of the Mendoza guys.
AZ Phil just wrote that he expects Happ to be non-tendered this off-season. I don’t know about that, but if nothing much improves, Happ will face that possibility. He’s probably looking at near $5 arb. Maybe hard to justify that given the way he’s been hitting
My take on Happ is that it seems he faces each pitch utterly unconnected to what happened before. The pitcher has some kind of plan to get him out but seems like Happ has no clue what that plan might be. Of course, we know that he has that hole in upper part of the zone but uncanny how he doesn’t do much with other pitches in the zone. Rarely is he “on” something, which kind of happens with a sense of anticipation.
I don’t know what’s going on, but it’s frustrating watching him now. He’s come out of bad periods before and maybe can do it again. Just have to keep trotting him out there, I suppose..
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Theo inherited a farm that included Contreras, Baez, Lemahieu, Cashner who was legit talented enough to justify exchanging for Rizzo, maybe wasn't that bad?
I'm not confident that the system that Theo left (prior to the DArvish trade) was really very likely to produce as much as those guys?
It's possible that Hoyer/Ricketts were starting from a more talent-deficient system?
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Look, as I’ve said before, I have no disagreement with the argument that in the very most recent seasons, the Ricketts have unduly put profit-seeking regarding the Wrigleyville development over the interests to field a better club on the field.
As I also said at the time, the Darvish trade was motivated to be a salary dump. The Ricketts are capitalists and part of the appeal of owning the Cubs is to maximize underutilized potential assets regarding the Cubs product. To make money. All true, I think.
I’m also sure the Ricketts would tell us that this short-term pain (exacerbated in part by Covid) eventually will inure to the benefit of winning baseball games when the project(s) comes to fruition—along with Marquee developing profits.
Whether the last point is true and honest remains to be seen. The Ricketts should be held to that implied promise and if they don’t come through with payroll, then by all means they should be criticized.
But, way too early to know, one way or the other. What just happened is that core of the club reached free agency together and wanted to test free agency. This was not really a surprise if we did the service time math.
Ricketts overall tenure as owners, however, has been excellent, I think, big picture.. Contenders and a World Series and compared to decades and decades and decades of futility compared to their predecessors. So, for those of us who have been around for awhile, maybe we are more cognizant of that big picture.
Next couple of off-seasons will be interesting. But, this is a different setting now than when the Ricketts came in and Theo’s strategy was to be intentionally bad at the beginning. Then, the farm system wad barren and fans were willing to wait. Now, farm system is pretty good and, as Hoyer just said, fans have a high expectancy of winning. Lovable Losers—DEAD, DEAD, DEAD. All to the good. We expect to win. Nothing wrong with complaining about not winning. Ownership knows that.
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The Rays are competitive and the definition of a small market team. Even then they barely spend over the National TV contracts. Should the Cubs just not spend money out of fairness? The Cubs have been one the most profitable teams yearly in MLB. If you listen to Whittenmeyer one year under the Ricketts the Cubs made more money than the Yankees.
My guess is the CBA is going to take a while, but you are going to see a spending floor to go with a hard cap.
I think what Wittenmyre said is that Cubs OUTSPENT the Yankees one year.
He’s correct. That was in 2018.
Regarding a hard cap, with a spending floor——not going to happen. Doubtful that owners would even propose something like that, much less achieve that. MLBPA has been philosophically opposed to a hard cap since its existence. After agreeing to a bad contract (for the union), the notion it would agree to a hard cap next time around is mind-boggling.
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Is Rafael Ortega a player?
He is today.
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The Rays are competitive and the definition of a small market team. Even then they barely spend over the National TV contracts. Should the Cubs just not spend money out of fairness? The Cubs have been one the most profitable teams yearly in MLB. If you listen to Whittenmeyer one year under the Ricketts the Cubs made more money than the Yankees.
My guess is the CBA is going to take a while, but you are going to see a spending floor to go with a hard cap.
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Yeah, the rich teams don't have enough of an advantage already. They should just keep spending and spending until the poorer teams literally have no chance to compete. Sign of the times.
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Is Rafael Ortega a player?
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This board seems to be the only place where the Ricketts family hasn't used up every ounce of good will they earned during the World Series run. Even if you accept the claim that the pandemic was devastating to their bottom line, that doesn't excuse not trying in the pre-pandemic offseasons after the 2018 and 2019 seasons.
I'm glad the Dodgers finally just blew through every luxury tax level and decided they don't care about the weak penalties. More teams should stop treating it like a hard salary cap.
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Hoyer took over a team that hasn’t actively tried to make itself better in the off season since Darvish. If Zobrist’s wife hadn’t cheated on him they wouldn’t have Kimbrel. None of the other big market clubs cut payroll like the Cubs. People bending over backwards to pat the Ricketts family on back for over extending themselves to buy up Wrigleyville is just weird.
The Dodgers go out and add Betts, Scherzer, Trea Turner. They resign guys Justin Turner, Jensen, extend Kershaw. They have a functional minor league system. The Cubs counter with Daniel Descalso. Is it a wonder they didn’t keep up?
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Cubs payroll is $140 million, 15th in MLB. The Cubs are spending less than the White Sox now and are $120 million behind the Dodgers. I think that qualifies as cheap.
No. That qualifies as sensible. They lost the bulk of their income last year, and did not know how much would be received this year. Adding 50 million dollars in salary just to have a second tier team at best and tying your hands to make moves in the future just doesn't make sense, either from a baseball sense or a financial sense.
I expect for them to be rather active this winter, going after a shortstop and starting pitching. But I can't imagine more than one or two major moves this winter. I can't see any reasonable action they can take to become dominant next year. But even near the salary cap, they were not dominant for the last three years, so money isn't an obvious solution.
Everyone knew that Rizzo, Bryant, and Baez were going to become free agents this year, with disastrous results for the team. The sensible thing to do would have been to trade one of then two years ago, and one last year, while their value was still high enough to bring back some near term returns. But that is done now, and all they can do for the long term is to gradually restore long term value to the team.
Hoyer took over a team that was allowed to decline to the point where some short term pain in necessary. But Hoyer takes over a decent farm system (at least compared to that of ten years ago) and seem to have brought in quite a bit of young talent with the recent trades, I I expect this rebuild (or restoration) to be much less painful than the last time. Especially without the severe financial restrictions that were included in the purchase agreement contracts.
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Cubs payroll is $140 million, 15th in MLB. The Cubs are spending less than the White Sox now and are $120 million behind the Dodgers. I think that qualifies as cheap. The major league payroll has been below this number since the rebuild and unfortunately that money can’t be repurposed to getting amateur players any more.
Spending big on free agents next year only makes sense if you are trying to juice attendance. The Cubs have to replace Bryant, Rizzo and Baez production just to get back to where they where on offense. To put that in contrast that is 6 fWAR through just the partial season. Then you have to improve from there in the rotation and offense. Adding an expensive SS
only doesn’t do that. The Cubs need prospects to make their way to majors before free agency is going to make sense.
The Marlins and Angels where discussing a Brandon Marsh for Max Meyer trade at the deadline. The Marlins have excess pitchers and need hitters. Too bad the Cubs have no hitting left.
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I’ll give Jes credit - no one but him laughs at the jokes in 90% of his posts but he still manages to be a laugh riot.
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I only noticed that he's from Sacramento which makes him fine with me.
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Anybody notice that Madrigal's given first name is "Nicklaus"?
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That's the point - what wasn't enough before might suddenly be enough once he sees the offers from other teams.
That goes back to the Realmuto/Contreras discussion.
Realmuto sought far more than he ended up with, re-signing with Phillies. It was widely thought that Mets would go after him but Mets signed McCann early on.
It just depends what the market will offer at the time the guy is out there and is ready to sign. Timing can change even within the same off-season. Boras/Bryant will see what’s out there. They will have way more info at that time than they had when Cubs were making offer(s).
So, we’ll see.
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I guess I was tag-teaming with other posters who've said, if they really wanted to stay here, they could have.
A lot of players feel an obligation to other members of the union not to take a grossly below market deal. Bryant is a big pro-union guy.
Let's see what the market allows.
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At some point, you have to pay guys to play baseball. Contreras is a good baseball player - not great, but good. You can make a case that you may as well throw money at him as anybody else.
That said, he’s a catcher with a serious overuse problem who’s pushing 30 and already showing signs of offensive decline. Maybe some of that is counterbalanced by his apparently improved framing, but is that the guy you want to throw a hundred million at with a cheap owner and a roster that’s basically going to be nothing but who-knows prospects apart from Madrigal and arguably Hoerner? If the Cubs have any designs on competing in the next 3-4 years they’re going to need to fill a large number of holes externally.
Let’s be clear about something. It is factually incorrect that Contreras has a “serious overuse problem.”
Actually, compared to his peers, he has much LESS catcher usage than they do.
By end of this season, Contreras will have caught about 4600 innings thru age 29.
Salvador Perez, thru age 29, had caught 7430 innings.
Realmuto, thru 29, caught 5675 innings.
Posey, thru 29, 5960 innings.
And, Perez and Posey each missed a season with injuries.
Further, Contreras wasn’t catching anywhere until he turned 20 and was converted. Realnuto, for example, caught 500 more minor league innings than Contreras did.
So, let’s put the “overuse” to bed. It’s flat wrong.
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That's the point - what wasn't enough before might suddenly be enough once he sees the offers from other teams.
I guess I was tag-teaming with other posters who've said, if they really wanted to stay here, they could have.
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That's the point - what wasn't enough before might suddenly be enough once he sees the offers from other teams.
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It really will be interesting to see Bryant's market develop. Of course, the number of interested teams is going to be huge. But, as good as he is, Bryant is no longer amongst the very best players in the game. The name recognition doesn't match the production.
There is a chance that his market is not going to yield the $200+ million that once seemed to be a foregone conclusion.
I agree, Jeff. The other day he said that he would have no problem signing with the Cubs as a free agent. If what they offered wasn't enough, what makes him think they can offer more this offseason?
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Perhaps I'm reading things wrong, but I wonder if our big 3 really believed they'd be traded. Rizzo I'm not sure of. He seemed to handle it very well and has settled in quickly in New York. But Bryant was crying and Javy's interview is where he appeared dazed and in disbelief. It's like deep down they thought, "They wouldn't trade us." Rizzo made the comment a couple weeks ago that he thought all 3 would resign.
I only wonder what would have happened if we had traded one of these in the offseason and kept Darvish. I doubt we would have had the 11 game losing streak that settled all their fates.
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It really will be interesting to see Bryant's market develop. Of course, the number of interested teams is going to be huge. But, as good as he is, Bryant is no longer amongst the very best players in the game. The name recognition doesn't match the production.
There is a chance that his market is not going to yield the $200+ million that once seemed to be a foregone conclusion.
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I wonder if they could get Contreras to sign at marginally more than Salvador Perez's extension from a few months ago. He got 4 years, $82 million, would Contreras take 4/$85? The Realmuto deal would be fine too, but the Perez deal might be more comparable since it's an extension with his original team a year before free agency.
Yes, you’re right that a Contreras extension has to take into account that, unlike Realmuto, 2022 is an arb year and not a FA year.
As an arb year, Contreras gets way less than $20 in 2022. He’s $6.65 in 2021.
So, could give him $22 per 2023-2026, plus his arb valued 2022.
That’s about 5/$100. I think he’s going to want 5 years.
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I think things have to go really well for the Cubs to be competitive by 2024 and that is probably more the division than the World Series. Willson would be 32, Hendricks would be 34 and in the last year of his deal. I think keeping them would be more about trying to keep attendance up than anything. Willson at 5/$100 would have 3 more years left. I guess it depends on what are the Ricketts going to commit to spending in the future and what the CBA does to limit spending.
My gut says trade both Hendricks and Willson, but I don’t think the Ricketts family wants that much of a headache.
Molina after 30 has had 3 above average wRC+ seasons. He was a 2-3 fWAR player during that time, my guess is the last 3 years of that contract are going to be rough.
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At some point, you have to pay guys to play baseball. Contreras is a good baseball player - not great, but good. You can make a case that you may as well throw money at him as anybody else.
That said, he’s a catcher with a serious overuse problem who’s pushing 30 and already showing signs of offensive decline. Maybe some of that is counterbalanced by his apparently improved framing, but is that the guy you want to throw a hundred million at with a cheap owner and a roster that’s basically going to be nothing but who-knows prospects apart from Madrigal and arguably Hoerner? If the Cubs have any designs on competing in the next 3-4 years they’re going to need to fill a large number of holes externally.
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I wonder if they could get Contreras to sign at marginally more than Salvador Perez's extension from a few months ago. He got 4 years, $82 million, would Contreras take 4/$85? The Realmuto deal would be fine too, but the Perez deal might be more comparable since it's an extension with his original team a year before free agency.
I think we will make a strong push on Bryant. Call me an optimist on that.
I think their biggest push is going to be to sign whatever free agent shortstop they like most.
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Of course, other thing that would be great is if Hoyer seeks to replace Baez with one of the other big time FA shortstops.
Thought that Dodgers would re-sign Seager but with Trea Turner there for 2022, maybe not. He’d be nice fit here.
Contreras. Bryant. Seager.
And, strawberry ice cream.
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It’d be nice if we re-signed Contreras and made a strong run at bringing Bryant back.
I think we will make a strong push on Bryant. Call me an optimist on that.
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Reb, would you give Willson the Realmuto contract?
Of course, Realmuto is better than Contreras——basically a 4 WAR guy and Contreras a 3 WAR guy.
But, contracts are about timing and the market. Contreras will be same age that Realmuto was when latter signed his deal. On Willson’s side, Realmuto had more mileage as a catcher than Willson has now.
Realmuto got 5/115.5 (23.1 per). Grandal, a year older when he signed, got 4/73 (18.25 per).
In a way, it’s helpful for both sides that those contracts are out there. It’s partly a matter of how Contreras fits in rather than breaking new ground.
Other thing is that Realmuto signed during Covid, with all that uncertainty. He was originally seeking 7/200.
So, bottom line, I would offer Contreras five years.
23 per is high. But, 20 or a bit more per, at 5 years? Yes. Think he’s worth it.
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Bleacher Nation’s prospect guy is releasing his video scouting of the prospects coming back. He isn’t a professional, but I find his takes interesting. He spoiled that he came away really liking Kilian. He is maybe the guy I am most interested in getting reports on.
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Reb, would you give Willson the Realmuto contract?
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As mentioned above, think that what Hoyer does with Contreras will be a strong indicator of near-term plans.
Not a bunch of key guys nearing free agency, now, just Contreras.
My hope is that Contreras is extended coming off-season. No idea if that may happen, but hope springs eternal.
He’s a catcher, a position that lends itself to leadership and setting a tone for the clubhouse.
Catching prospects behind Contreras seem to have regressed: Amaya seems like more of a backup type perhaps, reports on Quintero are really bad, Hearn Ks like crazy and, in any case, seems a long way away. Ditto for Ballesteros in Dom League—long way away.
Didn’t seem like Hoyer had any interest in moving Contreras at trade deadline. Compare that to Trea Turner and Nats. Maybe a good sign of Hoyer’s intentions?
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There is no way to know or even have a good guess what Hoyer’s plan going forward will be.
And, he is not going to announce that in advance to his competitors.
I don’t see trading away pending post-2021 free agents as an indicator, one way or the other, what Hoyer might do in 2022. Getting a return today for guys who can leave—when you’re not a 2021 contender— is just prudent. Rizzo with Nats, a Nowacrat GM if ever there was one, did same thing. Recognize reality and do today what you have to do today.
Keep in mind that there’s probably won’t be a cba by 12/1 when current cba expires and transactions will freeze because owners likely will declare a lockout. So, any chance of a Contreras extension or Hendricks trade—-either of which would tell us a lot about Hoyer’s plan—probably will be on hold for a considerable period in any case.
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Thanks for all of the input and analysis, and links and grab-up of other analysis and scouting commentary. Very helpful!
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I mean if the Cubs could pitch from 50 feet they might have a chance at winning a few games.
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ah, it makes more sense when you think of a pitching "closer" and opposed to closer meaning nearby. Duh
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No set closer. So they will go with guy that matches up best with the given hitters.*
*Assuming the I-Cubs can actually get a lead at some point.
I do think that will be the way going forward though.
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Sounds like no one will be designated as the closer. Seems sensible. Let them audition for the part.
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Interpret Ross' statement?
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From Jesse Rodgers
More Willson Contreras:"I'm not thinking of getting traded. I'm thinking of guiding these guys in the right way. I'm trying to be their leader. I'm going to do my best....I would love to stay here. I love Chicago. I love my team. If they want to build around me I'm open to talks"
Ross also said it will be closer depending on situation now.
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😐
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I have to give Hoyer credit for taking a novel approach to making starting pitching a strength of the team.
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https://www.thecubreporter.com/cubs-40-man-roster
ArizonaPhil has updated his 40-man roster with the new arrivals. The number of options remaining for the rostered guys could become important.
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The 40-man is at 39 with 8 guys on the 60-day IL. Of those 8, only two seem to have a shot to come back and play this season (Romine and Wick).
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RHP Codi Heuer has been added to the #Cubs 26-man roster.
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Looking at the Cubs IFA signings post Jimenez and Torres and their track record has been not great. The Cubs redid their scouting recently, but it might be few cycles before that pays off due to all the deals already done. Quintero is reportedly already a bust and Hernandez has a .600 OPS in the DSL. Hopefully Hernandez is just in a slump.
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Bingo!
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If you're in the Cubs minor league system, it's got to be motivating to realize that there will be all kinds of opportunities at the ML level over the next couple of years.
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The boys and akaLoveland at the Sox board aren’t shedding any tears about losing Madrigal. “Defense and base running — meh.”
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The other variable in play here is that, in theory, the absolute need for a top defensive shortstop might be somewhat lessened if we transition from a soft tossing rotation to more of a power pitching bunch.
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Hoerner is a player.
Im not concerned about him.
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On some plays it allows you to position yourself to get a batter out without needing a gun. Sure it's better to have a gun but the question is at what point does a mediocre arm disqualify you from being an effective everyday SS. For me, the jury is still out on Hoerner.
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The problem with good range and a below average arm is that you get to a lot of balls that you can't turn into outs.
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Once I sat down on The Show and put a roster/lineup/pitching staff together you realize just how bad this team currently is.
We may not win another game.
I guess that's the plan though.
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Good range and consistency can compensate for a below average arm. I haven't given up on Hoerner as a possible everyday SS.
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The Cubs seemed to target both contact guys and guys with pure power in the draft and in trades. The Astros figured out how to improve contact or least target guys who have power and could improve contact. The Dodgers have been taking contact guys and adding power. Justin Stone needs to start producing like the pitch lab.
The Astros only figured out how to bang trash cans.
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I like Hoerner's offensive potential. To me, he just needs more reps to improve his pitch recognition. I also am not convinced that he can't be an everyday SS. Is his arm really that much of a negative?
Yes.
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Kaplan talked to Kevin Goldstein, prospect guy at Fangraphs former Astros FO executive, and he said the Cubs could easily afford a $300 million payroll if they wanted. He’ll be on his podcast Tuesday.
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We have been spoiled with Javy, but yes. Nico would be a plus SS with a stronger arm. His arm takes him from plus to average or slightly below average. There will be plays he just can’t make. If you go back and watch the last few games where Nico played SS when Javy was out you’ll see it.
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I like Hoerner's offensive potential. To me, he just needs more reps to improve his pitch recognition. I also am not convinced that he can't be an everyday SS. Is his arm really that much of a negative?
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Like I said, sign FAs you think you can flip at the deadline. Then see where things stand next winter.
The issue with Hoerner and Madrigal defensively is that Madrigal certainly can't play anywhere but 2B. So if you're moving Hoerner, you're moving a guy who gives you GG defense for one who... doesn't. Maybe Hoerner can learn CF and become a sort of Zobrist-lite (in every sense) but it's valid to question whether that's the best way to utilize him.
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This is a big, big deal. The primary root cause of the Cubs' broken and dysfunctional offense is that they don't get enough base hits. Oddly enough, it's easier to find power nowadays than it is guys who can make elite contact and get lots of hits.
If they can find defensive homes for both Madrigal and Hoerner, that's a good start. Having two out of eight guys with that profile doesn't seem like a problem to me.
The Cubs seemed to target both contact guys and guys with pure power in the draft and in trades. The Astros figured out how to improve contact or least target guys who have power and could improve contact. The Dodgers have been taking contact guys and adding power. Justin Stone needs to start producing like the pitch lab.
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Cubs payroll is $140 million, 15th in MLB. The Cubs are spending less than the White Sox now and are $120 million behind the Dodgers. I think that qualifies as cheap. The major league payroll has been below this number since the rebuild and unfortunately that money can’t be repurposed to getting amateur players any more.
Spending big on free agents next year only makes sense if you are trying to juice attendance. The Cubs have to replace Bryant, Rizzo and Baez production just to get back to where they where on offense. To put that in contrast that is 6 fWAR through just the partial season. Then you have to improve from there in the rotation and offense. Adding an expensive SS
only doesn’t do that. The Cubs need prospects to make their way to majors before free agency is going to make sense.
The Marlins and Angels where discussing a Brandon Marsh for Max Meyer trade at the deadline. The Marlins have excess pitchers and need hitters. Too bad the Cubs have no hitting left.
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Going over the reports on the new players coming through the trades, it looks to me as if they got much more in return than I had expected. The only return that surprised me on the negative side was that of Tepera for Bailey Horn. I would have thought that he would bring in more than Horn, but the Cubs must have been impressed with more than just his stats.
It will be interesting to watch the minor league box scores again, with more than a dozen names worth following now.
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For the last three years, the Cubs have been criticized for having all or nothing guys. Lots of home runs, but few men on base at the time. They HAD to get contact guys in order to be decent. Now they get one of the better contact guys in the league and they are criticized because he has little power.
Based upon the information that we have today, although the common belief was that we will get nothing worthwhile for trading Baez, Bryant, Rizzo, Tepera and Chafin, the fact is that it looks on paper as if they got value WELL above the end-of-round second round draft choices for each of them.
But the Cubs have ended up with a much better balanced farm system, with good prospects with near ready talents, others with better possibilities in the mid levels, and several with star potential, although with several years development before them. That is a far better situation that when we had one of the top rated systems, but all were in the same time frame and all were destined to leave at the same time.
I believe that the Cubs will be extremely active in the free agent market this winter, going strongly after one of the top tier shortstops, and with an entire starting staff to fill. Regardless of recent criticism, ownership has NEVER been cheap, having been in the top five in salary levels for half a decade, and having spent a lot of cash to bring in Heyward, Lester, Lackey, Darvish and others over the years. Having more common sense than some of us, when their gate receipts decreased by a hundred million dollars per year, they cut expenses accordingly. But now that that seems to be behind us, I expect the faucet to open again.
They will not likely to spend do it all in one winter, but they will soon be up there in the top salary levels.
It will be an interesting winter. How quick will teams be to bring in free agents when they don't know what the rules will be after the new labor agreement is reached. I hope they hammer it out quickly. Just glancing at the recent actions, it looks like the Cubs believe that universal DH will be here next year.
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All in all, I like picking him up in the deal. A guy who puts the ball in play and gets base hits is an element we've been missing, even if those attributes aren't really in style anymore.
This is a big, big deal. The primary root cause of the Cubs' broken and dysfunctional offense is that they don't get enough base hits. Oddly enough, it's easier to find power nowadays than it is guys who can make elite contact and get lots of hits.
If they can find defensive homes for both Madrigal and Hoerner, that's a good start. Having two out of eight guys with that profile doesn't seem like a problem to me.
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Also on Madrigal, maybe I might be a little higher on him, but I still wonder if there's some poor man's D.J. LeMahieu in him. It took LeMahieu work to become a Gold Glover, and while it's hard to see him hitting double digit home runs, LeMahieu eventually got there too. Madrigal's slugging this year was a tad higher than it was in the minors, and pop often develops late.
All in all, I like picking him up in the deal. A guy who puts the ball in play and gets base hits is an element we've been missing, even if those attributes aren't really in style anymore.
LeMahieu, BTW, is 6'4", 220 so I'm not exactly sure he's a good comp for Madrigal power-potential wise...
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On the bullpen the Cubs have a bunch of nasty guys with Wick, Leeper, Rodriguez, Heuer and on down. My guess is the Cubs move to the Rays where a bunch of guys get saves to keep down arbitration costs and lesser reliever gets a majority of the lower leverage saves.
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This is a historic fire sale, and opinions - all premature at this point - are obviously going to be all over the map. But to me it seems telling that we gave up Kimbrel (not a rental), Chafin, Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, and Tepera and really only got one guy who's a legit top 100 prospect (before this season). And honestly, that's not a guy with superstar upside - he was in the top 100 because of the high floor, not the high ceiling. There are a lot of other names involved who could potentially be on those lists, but they aren't now. And if you're only getting one top-100 name after giving up all those guys, is Madrigal the sort of player you want that to be? I don't know - it's a philosophical argument, to an extent.
I think you are too hung up on top 100. The list are fluid and the Cubs went with a lot of younger guys that can potentially be a lot higher on the list by the time they are major leaguers. The Cubs have a lot of guys in 100-200 range and the difference in value between the #50 and #200 prospect is small.
The Cubs need more Brennan Davis level players and if they can get 2 guys out of this deadline and Darvish that would be a fantastic win. The Cubs system pre-Darvish on Fangraphs was 22 it is 9 now.
Also on Madrigal, maybe I might be a little higher on him, but I still wonder if there's some poor man's D.J. LeMahieu in him. It took LeMahieu work to become a Gold Glover, and while it's hard to see him hitting double digit home runs, LeMahieu eventually got there too. Madrigal's slugging this year was a tad higher than it was in the minors, and pop often develops late.
All in all, I like picking him up in the deal. A guy who puts the ball in play and gets base hits is an element we've been missing, even if those attributes aren't really in style anymore.
In a small sample is slugging was better, but his ext velocity and launch angle didn’t change. If it was going to be a change that is sustainable you would expect that to improve. Hoerner’s slugging is worse this year, but his launch angle went from 0.8 last year to 7 degrees this year. His max exit velocity has gone up from 103 as a rookie to 106 to 107 this year. That is all encouraging. Madrigal max exist velocity cell and his launch angle went from 4 to 1.7. He has amazing contact ability and there isn’t anything stopping him from making a swing change to add that slugging, a lot of guys have done it and the Cubs are paying Justin Stone money to do this type of thing. The big problem is he and Nico are very similar. Nico is an elite defender at second and his arm limits him at SS. Unless Nico can play CF or gets traded they are redundant.
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Also on Madrigal, maybe I might be a little higher on him, but I still wonder if there's some poor man's D.J. LeMahieu in him. It took LeMahieu work to become a Gold Glover, and while it's hard to see him hitting double digit home runs, LeMahieu eventually got there too. Madrigal's slugging this year was a tad higher than it was in the minors, and pop often develops late.
All in all, I like picking him up in the deal. A guy who puts the ball in play and gets base hits is an element we've been missing, even if those attributes aren't really in style anymore.
Lots of overlap with Hoerner there, no? Both offensively and defensively. Hoerner can play SS, but I don't think you want him to long-term.
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Also on Madrigal, maybe I might be a little higher on him, but I still wonder if there's some poor man's D.J. LeMahieu in him. It took LeMahieu work to become a Gold Glover, and while it's hard to see him hitting double digit home runs, LeMahieu eventually got there too. Madrigal's slugging this year was a tad higher than it was in the minors, and pop often develops late.
All in all, I like picking him up in the deal. A guy who puts the ball in play and gets base hits is an element we've been missing, even if those attributes aren't really in style anymore.
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https://theathletic.com/2743328/2021/07/30/the-cubs-go-all-in-on-the-fire-sale-so-lets-take-a-look-at-the-return-keith-law/?amp#click=https://t.co/cauRhxMDBk
Law doesn’t love Madrigal.
Canario and Alcantara have All-Star potential
Kilian he has sitting 93-95, refers to the slider as an out pitch to go with 4 other pitches.
This is a historic fire sale, and opinions - all premature at this point - are obviously going to be all over the map. But to me it seems telling that we gave up Kimbrel (not a rental), Chafin, Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, and Tepera and really only got one guy who's a legit top 100 prospect (before this season). And honestly, that's not a guy with superstar upside - he was in the top 100 because of the high floor, not the high ceiling. There are a lot of other names involved who could potentially be on those lists, but they aren't now. And if you're only getting one top-100 name after giving up all those guys, is Madrigal the sort of player you want that to be? I don't know - it's a philosophical argument, to an extent.
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To bring up one overlooked guy from today, Codi Heuer seems to me like a guy who might right the ship with a change of scenery and go back to being the dominant reliever he was last year. Relievers can be pretty fickle like that. I actually wouldn't be shocked if he's our closer by time September comes around and establishes himself as a good closer for the next couple of years for us.
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https://theathletic.com/2743328/2021/07/30/the-cubs-go-all-in-on-the-fire-sale-so-lets-take-a-look-at-the-return-keith-law/?amp#click=https://t.co/cauRhxMDBk
Law doesn’t love Madrigal.
Canario and Alcantara have All-Star potential
Kilian he has sitting 93-95, refers to the slider as an out pitch to go with 4 other pitches.
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I think the plan should be to trade Contreras over the winter and concentrate on signing middling FAs to 1 and 2 year deals to flip at the deadline - something Theo did to great effect when he came on-board. Be awful the rest of this season and next, net two high draft picks. Plan on another huge IFA binge after the usual year off to reset the penalties. After another season and two months you should have a slightly better idea of where you stand with all these prospects, and what a realistic timetable is.
IFA free agency is a hard cap until the introduce a draft. I don't think you can even trade cap space. The Cubs 2022 IFA is more of a spread it around than signing a high dollar guy like Hernandez (his brother is signing with the Cubs).
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Jed on Marquee
-Doesn’t rule out signing on of Bryant, Baez or Rizzo. The fact he said this with a straight face was impressive.
-This speeds up the reset/rebuild
-Going to build the next great Cubs team. He’s in it for winning.
-Key point to me he wouldn’t give a time frame for when the next great Cub team would appear.
I think this was a mix of BS and truths.
-The trades have obviously sped up the rebuild. I don’t think the Cubs are resigning any of the three guys unless the media/fans just hammers them. As weird as this sounds I think Bryant is the best bet a resigning, and that is probably a 10% shot. I think you are going to see sign and flip guys for at least 2022 and probably 2023. My guess is the payroll is probably $140-150 until 2024. Contreras is probably gone this off season is he doesn’t sign a team friendly extension and I still struggle to see the point of Hendricks on the team unless he just doesn’t have trade value.
I think the plan should be to trade Contreras over the winter and concentrate on signing middling FAs to 1 and 2 year deals to flip at the deadline - something Theo did to great effect when he came on-board. Be awful the rest of this season and next, net two high draft picks. Plan on another huge IFA binge after the usual year off to reset the penalties. After another season and two months you should have a slightly better idea of where you stand with all these prospects, and what a realistic timetable is.
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Jed on Marquee
-Doesn’t rule out signing on of Bryant, Baez or Rizzo. The fact he said this with a straight face was impressive.
-This speeds up the reset/rebuild
-Going to build the next great Cubs team. He’s in it for winning.
-Key point to me he wouldn’t give a time frame for when the next great Cub team would appear.
I think this was a mix of BS and truths.
-The trades have obviously sped up the rebuild. I don’t think the Cubs are resigning any of the three guys unless the media/fans just hammers them. As weird as this sounds I think Bryant is the best bet a resigning, and that is probably a 10% shot. I think you are going to see sign and flip guys for at least 2022 and probably 2023. My guess is the payroll is probably $140-150 until 2024. Contreras is probably gone this off season is he doesn’t sign a team friendly extension and I still struggle to see the point of Hendricks on the team unless he just doesn’t have trade value.
For the rest of the year
-I need Steele/Thompson/Alzolay/Mills getting starts.
-Wisdom playing everyday to see what he can do with high fastballs. Happ needs to play too.
-Nico I’d like to see in CF. Alcantara I’d like to get time at SS.
-I guess Bote can play second to see if he can get some trade value.
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so.. who is the closer now for the cubs? Maples?
Manny Rodriguez. Maples is on the IL anyway...
The issue with Madrigal seems to be that other than bat-on-ball skills (which are obviously elite) he seems to have trouble translating his raw ability to the game. No one doubts his speed or defensive range, but he's struggled with the glove and on the bases as a major leaguer. If you read what the Sox coverage sites were saying about him, there was some talk about his playing scared to an extent. That's obviously a judgment call, and he's still very inexperienced especially considering how much time he's missed due to injury (which is a valid concern in its own right).
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I listened to Longenhagen on twitch.
Canila he isn’t sure how it is working. He has him from scouts as 91-93 with average breaking balls. He has carry on the fastball and a tough release point. Said he needs more info.
Carencino he has concerns about his swing and miss, but he has legit power. He is out of options in 2023 and he thinks he might need more time. Compared him to the Padres hitters and said the Cubs could easily get 2 stars and a bunch of dudes out of the group.
PCA- is a 70 defender in CF and he has worries about his swing and high fastballs. Said he could be a JBJ Jr type or something more with swing adjustments to handle high heat.
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so.. who is the closer now for the cubs? Maples?
Don't need one.
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Statcast numbers
Madrigal: ext velocity: 36%, sprint speed: 76%, Outs Above Average: 78%
Hoerner: ext velocity: 52%, sprint speed: 91%, Outs above average: 95%
I don’t know if Hoerner can play SS well enough to make it work. It will be interesting to see if he gets time in CF when he come back.
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so.. who is the closer now for the cubs? Maples?
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I look forward to seeing his high baseball IQ with you moving forward.
Real issue here is why give up madrigal for Kimbrel... why not get turner and max instead. boooooo.
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Maybe would be useful to note Pipeline scouting report on Madrigal from a year ago:
Perhaps the best pure hitter among prospects, Madrigal excels at making line-drive contact to all fields with a controlled right-handed swing. His extraordinary hand-eye coordination and feel for the barrel allowed him to limit his strikeouts to 37 in 707 college plate appearances and just 21 in 705 trips to the plate in his first two years as a pro. The question is how much impact he'll ultimately have at the plate, because he's small and possesses little raw power while his penchant for putting the bat on the ball cuts into his walk totals.
Madrigal does have plus speed and knows how to use it, so he enhances his offensive profile with basestealing ability. His high baseball IQ is obvious in the field as well, where he's a potential Gold Glover at second base. He has the hands and actions to play shortstop, though his fringy arm is better suited for second.
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Madrigal has great range, but he's the anti-mago. He will turn reuglar plays into acts of mental failure on a regular basis. Just dumb **** that will make you make you needlessly angry.
On the hitting side, he's a great asset, he will work the pitcher, and will not give at-bats away. ever. But he's not going to hit for much power, unless something can be untapped in his swing. The Wsox have a **** poor record of getting more out of hitters... so there is likely room for improvement
How the hell did he win a GG in the minors? Is the bar that low?
What's the prognosis on the hamstring injury - long-term? Concerning that he's has season-ending injuries 3 of the last 4 years.
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Madrigal has great range, but he's the anti-mago. He will turn reuglar plays into acts of mental failure on a regular basis. Just dumb shit that will make you make you needlessly angry.
On the hitting side, he's a great asset, he will work the pitcher, and will not give at-bats away. ever. But he's not going to hit for much power, unless something can be untapped in his swing. The Wsox have a piss poor record of getting more out of hitters... so there is likely room for improvement
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There were 7 more players needed to make their MLB entry in order to reach a round number (10,000?) and I said that the Cubs would bring them to that number all by themselves this year. You thought it was some sort of shtick. But they have had five all by themselves since then. I am pretty sure this last call up put them over.
I thought it was a shtick myself, but will deny it if asked.
-
Refresh my memory. What did we talk about?
-
Cubs roster moves:
-RHP Manny Rodriguez recalled
-OF Johneshwy Fargas recalled
-INF Frank Schwindel recalled
-RHP Michael Rucker selected
-OF/IF Andrew Romine selected
-RHP Jake Arrieta reinstated from 10-day IL
What do you think, Jeff. Does that put them over the number we talked about?
-
Ka-BOOM!
In all seriousness, that was a lot to take in.
- I would have preferred upside over Madrigal, and with Kimbrel that was presumably an option. Madrigal is a puzzler in some ways - was highly touted defensively (won a minors GG) but has been thoroughly mediocre as a big leaguer. Seems eerily similar to Hoerner - best at 2B, contact wizard, no power, not enough walks. He'd a good get - a better pure hitter than Hoerner, albeit with less power potential, and a near-lock starting caliber player. But again, would have preferred a riskier guy with star potential as our headline name of the day.
- Huer is not too exciting, frankly - a setup guy with a big arm and so-so secondaries. Purely an add-on.
- Espinoza for Marisnick is a surprisingly appealing lottery ticket.
- Not sure what to make of the Bryant return. I think Killian is the key to the deal in many ways - are his numbers a mirage, or has he legit made the jump to real prospect? He was borderline top-30 in the Giants (loaded) system before the season.
- Crow-Armstrong is an interesting guy. Obviously well-regarded - first round pick, hit well in very limited pro duty, but that shoulder injury (albeit non-throwing) is no joke. Could be a chronic issue.
- The Cubs seem to have overall focused more on contact/speed/defense guys over power guys. Several young CF prospects added to the mix in the past three days.
Gonna take some time to soak all that up. First flush reaction is I'm not overhwhelmed, based on the fact that we gave up pretty much everybody not under team control beyond this year. It's an interesting group of prospects but certainly no more than you would have expected based on who we traded.
-
BuildICan. NowACrat was fun while it lasted.
DMF...it's been a while
-
Just woke up - anything happen?
Ka-BOOM!
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Odd fact about the Bryant deal - except for these guys, no player with the last name of either Kilian or Canario has ever played American professional baseball.
-
Just woke up - anything happen?
-
-RHP Manny Rodriguez recalled
-OF Johneshwy Fargas recalled
-INF Frank Schwindel recalled
-RHP Michael Rucker selected
-OF/IF Andrew Romine selected
-RHP Jake Arrieta reinstated from 10-day IL
You made up some of those names, didn't you?
-
We're now back to counting on the development of young minor league players and smart trades/acquisitions with the hope of being competitive again in 2-3 years.
BuildICan. NowACrat was fun while it lasted.
-
yes
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Craig, I know you don't really have enough information to make a truly informed decision, but, if Kilian continues to pitch well after joining the organization, would you give him a start or two in late September? He is already 24.
-
Kiley McDaniel referred to Canario as “just outside the top 100”…
He sounds similar to Caissie…power hitting corner OF type…
-
Canario is supposedly coming off a shoulder surgery and his team plays in a tough offensive environment. Since June he’s put up a .265/.340/.482 slash line.
Today sucks, but the Cubs did well. I’m really waiting for Jed to crawl out of wherever he is and give a direction for what is going to happen. I just don’t see the Cubs spending to be good next year.
-
Arrieta gets to be part of the next rebuild! :):)
-
Cubs roster moves:
-RHP Manny Rodriguez recalled
-OF Johneshwy Fargas recalled
-INF Frank Schwindel recalled
-RHP Michael Rucker selected
-OF/IF Andrew Romine selected
-RHP Jake Arrieta reinstated from 10-day IL
-
Any thoughts on stretching Heuer out as a starter?
Don't know enough about him to know if it might work. But I think it would be worth a look.
Heuer, Steele, Keegan, personally I think it would make sense to take a look at all three of those guys.
-
Any thoughts on stretching Heuer out as a starter?
-
No, just PCA. I wouldn't have thought he'd be available, so no add-ons makes sense.
-
Who did we get beside Peter Crow-Armstrong for Baez and Williams ? Surely we got more than one (injured? ) minor league prospect ?
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Kilian.....signing with the Giants for an over-slot $397,500 in the eighth round a year later. He didn't surrender an earned run in 16 innings during his pro debut and might have begun to advance quickly in 2020 if the coronavirus pandemic hadn't shut down the Minor League season. He instead participated in instructional league and was one of the better pitchers in San Francisco's camp.
Kilian added strength during his layoff and showed increased velocity in short stints at instructs, topping out at 98 mph after usually ranging from 90-95 with his four-seam fastball in college. After battling inconsistency with his breaking balls at Texas Tech, he has added some power to his curveball and scrapped his slider in favor of a shorter, harder cutter. He also exhibits feel for an average changeup.
..he could develop into a No. 4 starter. He repeats his athletic delivery and throws all four of his pitches for strikes. He could open 2021 in high Class A and push for a role in San Francisco the following year.
This appears to be a pre-season writeup, based off of instructs glances, and input from coaches.
The pre-season idea of upgraded stuff seems to be affirmed by the actual season stats.
A 96/9 K/BB adds some appeal.
A #4 starter doesn't seem like a big ceiling, but maybe the season's performance hints #4 might be underselling him a little, maybe? One might also rationalize that 6 years of #4-starter control might be good value for a 2-month rental?
-
I'm surprised Houston didn't try to get him back, considering they dealt Straw away...
-
Maybe someone already posted it and I missed it, but here's the return for Marisnick:
Jordan Bastian @MLBastian
Cubs announce that they've acquired RHP Anderson Espinoza (No. 9 on @MLBPipeline's Top 30 Padres prospects list) for OF Jake Marisnick.
That seems like pretty good lottery ticket for Marisnick. Two Tommy Johns and this year is the first time he has pitched since 2016. But he was a top 50 prospect before the 2016 and 2017 seasons, and still a top 100 before 2018, so he seems like a worthwhile reclamation project for 2 months of a bench player.
br, this morning he was no longer a bench player, he was our star outfielder.
-
Goes from 8th on the Padres list to 29th on the Cubs on Fangraphs. Cubs lack top end talent, but have depth for days.
-
Maybe someone already posted it and I missed it, but here's the return for Marisnick:
Jordan Bastian @MLBastian
Cubs announce that they've acquired RHP Anderson Espinoza (No. 9 on @MLBPipeline's Top 30 Padres prospects list) for OF Jake Marisnick.
That seems like pretty good lottery ticket for Marisnick. Two Tommy Johns and this year is the first time he has pitched since 2016. But he was a top 50 prospect before the 2016 and 2017 seasons, and still a top 100 before 2018, so he seems like a worthwhile reclamation project for 2 months of a bench player.
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I think if you love where you're at and want to stay, you make sure you have an agent who will get you the best deal possible and not look for the most money. Most agents have no allegiance but the $ sign.
-
Yes.
He wont be for long though.
-
Is Davies still here?
-
I doubt that any of the guys traded are feeling like they are a big reason why the Cubs have fallen short over the past few years. They probably feel that management failed to assemble a roster capable of competing for a championship. If you don't want to spend your remaining years of excellence playing for a rebuilding team, you don't sign an extension. It makes perfect sense in today's major sports world. I certainly don't hold it against the players. The truth is, we thought they would be better than they proved to be (even though they were really good ballplayers). Management seemed to also have made that miscalculation and as a result there just wasn't enough additional complementary talent acquired. We're now back to counting on the development of young minor league players and smart trades/acquisitions with the hope of being competitive again in 2-3 years.
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They're still my Cubbies.
These players didnt want to be here or they would have signed extensions.
Its not just on Jed and the Rickett's clan.
F' em.
I was having a similar conversation (a tad less pointed) but basically said that if these guys wanted to stay with the Cubs they could have done so.
It was mentioned that KB was crying. At the end of the day if he wanted to stay he could have accepted “short” money to stay and it wouldn’t have changed his life. A contract for 8 years at $15M/year will give him more money than 3 generations of his family can spend. $20M wouldn’t help any more than $15M. The Cubs reportedly offered Bryant over $250M for 8 years. That’s over $30M/year. I get seeking fair market value but if someone truly loves where they are and they are offered a sum of money that will last for multiple generations why not accept the offer and be happy?
Yes…..it is a rhetorical question as I know the answer.
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Kilian
AA- 26.2% K%, 3.3% BB%, 2.43 ERA/2.38/3.16
Via MLB Pipeline. No reports from Fangraphs
A starter on back-to-back College World Series teams at Texas Tech, Kilian turned down the Orioles as 20th-round sophomore-eligible in 2018 before signing with the Giants for an over-slot $397,500 in the eighth round a year later. He didn't surrender an earned run in 16 innings during his pro debut and might have begun to advance quickly in 2020 if the coronavirus pandemic hadn't shut down the Minor League season. He instead participated in instructional league and was one of the better pitchers in San Francisco's camp.
Kilian added strength during his layoff and showed increased velocity in short stints at instructs, topping out at 98 mph after usually ranging from 90-95 with his four-seam fastball in college. After battling inconsistency with his breaking balls at Texas Tech, he has added some power to his curveball and scrapped his slider in favor of a shorter, harder cutter. He also exhibits feel for an average changeup.
Kilian's lanky 6-foot-4 frame gave him more projection than a typical college pitcher, and if he continues to make the gains the Giants hoped he would, he could develop into a No. 4 starter. He repeats his athletic delivery and throws all four of his pitches for strikes. He could open 2021 in high Class A and push for a role in San Francisco the following year.
-
What do you do with Ross?
-
They're still my Cubbies.
These players didnt want to be here or they would have signed extensions.
Its not just on Jed and the Rickett's clan.
F' em.
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Just from reading, it seems like Kilian has a little bit of Shane Bieber in him.
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Kilian sounds like he had a velocity jump to. Maybe he was the target, but it seems like a lot less than what they got for Baez and Rizzo.
Interesting. Can't imagine the high-K low-contact A-ball hitter was the priority. Have to assume the Cubs scouts think Kilian has enough arm and stuff to make it.
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Canario, Vizcaino, and Espinoza are all on the 40-man roster. Once ArizonaPhil gets his feet under him, it'll be interesting to see how many options these guys have remaining.
-
The 26-man roster is down to 20!
Is Eric Sogard still available?
We need a 2-way player.
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Kilian sounds like he had a velocity jump to. Maybe he was the target, but it seems like a lot less than what they got for Baez and Rizzo.
-
When you trade a bunch of good players, aren't you supposed to feel that you received high ceiling players in return?
I'm not feeling that.
-
I guess Davies didn't get traded. That's surprising.
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This is why you fall in love with the jersey not the player.
I still love em.
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Kilian looks like he's having a big breakout this year. In 15 starts between high A and AA (mostly AA), he has a 2.13 ERA while striking out 10.1 per 9 IP. He has also walked only 9 hitters in 84 2/3 IP.
He's also 24, so he seems like someone who could be in the major leagues by next year.
-
No
Canario .235/.325/.433 in Low A with a 28% K%.
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Is that a better return than a comp pick?
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Nightengale correction:
Bob Nightengale @BNightengale
Caleb Killian and Alexander Canario
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Bob Nightengale
@BNightengale
·
2m
The #Cubs receive pitcher Caleb Killian and outfielder Alexander Camargo from #SFGiants in Bryant trade
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The 26-man roster is down to 20!
-
If they acquired Bart, might as well say bye to Contreras now.
-
Nevermind on the Giants return:
Andrew Baggarly @extrabaggs
I don't know who reported Bart and Wade Jr. to the Cubs, but that is not accurate, I'm told.
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Does Chicago win 10 more games this year?
0 would be fine.
-
Cubs get Joey Bart. (And LaMonte Wade Jr.)
EDIT: bad report, the Cubs didn't get this return.
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Pete Abraham
@PeteAbe
·
1m
Anderson Espinoza, the erstwhile Red Sox prospect, was traded to the Cubs for Jake Marisnick.
Espinoza never pitched for the Padres after being acquired for Drew Pomeranz. Had TJ twice.
-
Do we care?
-
Does Chicago win 10 more games this year?
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Today sucks
-
Marisnick to the Padres.
-
LOL, mlbtraderumors is crashing.
-
Is Davies still a Cub?
-
Maybe Bryant getting out from under Rizzo’s shadow will be good. Not that he ever was but maybe in his own mind. Bryant will have to be team leader now with COntreras.
-
https://twitter.com/jrfegan/status/1421198195288313868?s=21
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Looks like Marisnick to the Padres. (That too).
-
Marisnick to SD.
-
Passan has Bryant to SF...
-
7 min to the deadline, and Bryant is still a Cub. Hoyer presumably trying to squeeze out the best deal.
-
I wouldn't be surprised if the Cubs try to get Heuer stretched out.
-
Bryant to SF
-
Fangraphs has Madrigal as 60/60 fielding...Method says otherwise, and everything I'm seeing on Twitter agrees with him...
For comparison, they have Hoerner as 45/50...
-
At least we're bout to have a strong farm system.
-
Winker and Marisnick probably getting traded too. Going to be a AAA team.
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Good to see you all as well! Figure this is still the best place to get info on these trades.
-
Moxy!
-
Maybe have to keep Bryant for PR reasons? I hope not, but only 37 minutes left.
-
We got Crow-Armstrong and Fruvous?
-
And Moxy Fruvous too!
Our cup runneth over!
Good to see ya!
-
I think Crow-Armstrong might be the entire return for Baez/Williams, but that seems like good return?
-
They had a really nice long run together and it was a pleasure to root for them. We didn't realize that they were peaking in 2016, but the peak was glorious. I have nothing but good feelings towards them all.
-
You know it has to happen...but man...this is really kind of soul crushing to go through.
-
Have the Giants done anything yet? Bryant perhaps?
Jesse Rogers thinks that's the most likely destination.
-
Bully, great to have you visit!!!
-
Have the Giants done anything yet? Bryant perhaps?
-
There he is!
Bully!
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Fake Passan account says Bryant to the Yankees. It's not true.
-
I’m watching my thirties be washed away in a 24 hour period! Make it stop! (Or, maybe, clear the entire deck at this point....)
-
That’s a big get if PCA is involved.
-
Gotta wonder how Contreras is feeling watching *everyone* get traded away.
Hope we trade him and Hendricks too (but not likely to happen).
-
like that!
-
Pete Crow Armstrong is one of the players coming back from the Mets.
-
Gotta wonder how Contreras is feeling watching *everyone* get traded away.
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I'm with br on this one. Madrigal may not be sexy, but he has otherworldly contact ability, was a consensus top 50 prospect, placed #44 in FG's 2021 Top 50 Trade Value series, and all he did this year was hit hit hit, on pace for 4 WAR before the injury.
Madrigal has a wRC+ 115 this year. Nico has a wRC+ of 114. Nico has a higher launch angle and higher maxEV this year and is on pace for a 4fWAR season as well over 162 games.
-
We're losing a lot of HR's...Trevor Story, anyone?
-
We'll end up with the #1 pick as shitty as this team will be.
-
A little less than an hour to move Bryant.
-
Rosenthal confirming Baez & Williams to Mets, pending physicals
-
Trevor Williams is going to the Mets with Baez.
-
Trading Baez now is a defensible move in terms of the rebuild, and probably makes it "easier" for the front office to pursue another SS this winter, if they prefer a different guy to Javy.
-
I think the Cubs will be in the shortstop free agent market in the offseason and won't necessarily be relying on Hoerner. The fact that they got Madrigal means that they're not looking for a long, drawn out rebuild.
Between Story, Correa, Seager, Baez, and Semien, there are a lot of options. And the Dodgers probably won't be in the mix since they just got Turner.
-
Passan called it "a massive price" for the White Sox to pay...
Javy is going to the Mets...
This will be painful if it happens, but good on Hoyer for tearing the whole thing apart.
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I'm with br on this one. Madrigal may not be sexy, but he has otherworldly contact ability, was a consensus top 50 prospect, placed #44 in FG's 2021 Top 50 Trade Value series, and all he did this year was hit hit hit, on pace for 4 WAR before the injury.
-
After having Russell and Baez at SS, playing Hoerner's arm at SS on a regular basis would be pretty disappointing.
-
Passan called it "a massive price" for the White Sox to pay...
Javy is going to the Mets...
-
Huh, a few seconds apart:
Mark Feinsand @Feinsand
The Mets have a deal in place pending medicals to acquire Javier Baez from the Cubs, per source.
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
Mets are talking about adding a pitcher from Cubs in addition to Javier Báez, either Zach Davies or Trevor Williams, source tells @TheAthletic. Deal is not close at this moment.
-
Before the season, Madrigal was ranked as the #39 prospect in baseball by Fangraphs. And he didn't do anything to hurt that value before he got hurt (he was on pace for a 4 fWAR season). He's a pretty good get for the Cubs.
On Hoerner, I'm not convinced he's a starter for next year's team. His development has really been hurt by the late 2019 shortstop injuries followed by the pandemic year. He still has so little experience above the low minors.
-
Nico has to learn how to hit for power. Surely these batting coaches can help with that. CF might work but if he’s going to injure himself on non-contact plays that’s troublesome.
-
So SS for Hoerner.
-
Joel Sherman @Joelsherman1
#Mets making movement toward Javy Baez. Maybe a pitcher in the deal too
-
I wonder what this means for Nico? Do they try him in CF or is he the SS next year?
-
Is he good defensively?
No he’s not.
-
Is he good defensively?
-
That's awful.
-
Well, Nick Madrigal is definitely a different kind of hitter than they've had over the last several years.
-
T Minus 1 hour and 30 minutes...
-
Bob Nightengale
@BNightengale
The #Cubs will receive second baseman Nick Madrigal and pitcher Codi Heuer from the #WhiteSox for Craig Kimbrel.
-
By my clock on the wall it’s one hour and thirty six seconds.
-
Do we Eloy back?
-
Who the hell are they giving up????????
-
David Kaplan
@thekapman
·
52m
Multiple sources have confirmed that the #Cubs and #WhiteSox are continuing to have discussions that would send Craig Kimbrel to the Sox. Price is steep. Several suitors. Stay tuned. The next 2 1/2 hours will get crazy.
He did have that earlier.
-
Rosenthal confirms
-
And Passan confirms:
Jeff Passan @JeffPassan
The Chicago White Sox are finalizing a deal to acquire closer Craig Kimbrel from the Chicago Cubs, sources tell ESPN.
-
Michael Cerami
@Michael_Cerami
SOURCE: I'm hearing Craig Kimbrel has been traded to the Chicago White Sox.
Charles the Cat™
@CharlsMeow
Eyes (emoji)
This has to be wrong or a joke.
-
Michael Cerami (backup writer at Bleacher Nation, so take it with a huge grain of salt) says Kimbrel has been traded to the White Sox.
At some point, Bleacher Nation's refusal to be negative about anything the Cubs do is going to pay off for them...
-
Kiley McDaniel just said that Keibert Ruiz "has a chance to become one of the top 10 catchers in the league because the position is so weak"...
That's the top guy the Nats got for Trea freakin' Turner and Max freakin' Scherzer...
-
https://twitter.com/MLBBruceLevine/status/1421168997165371393?s=19
-
If we made Hendricks available, would we get a package similar to what MN just got for Berrios?
-
I really wish we could have gotten in on that Turner/Scherzer deal...I would have given the Nats just about anything they wanted to get Turner and Scherzer, and then flipped Scherzer to whatever WC team made the best offer...
-
Deadline is it until the off season.
-
There are no more post deadline trades allowed anymore are there?
-
T minus 2 hours and 16 minutes....
-
Aim high!
-
Rays want Bryant and Kimbrel according to Rosenthal.
Just assuming the Cubs would be paying all of Bryant and probably a significant portion of Kimbrel that would have to put Baz on the table wouldn’t it?
Say like Baz, Lowe (CF), Taj Bradley and another piece?
-
Dodgers still after Kimbrel.
We're gonna clean up when we trade him.
-
Rays want Bryant and Kimbrel according to Rosenthal.
-
Schwindel's gonna be our 1st baseman one would think.
-
Why? An absolute butcher at 1B and having a terrible year. What does Voit help you do, exactly? You aren't going to be competitive next year and it's not like he helps you all that much even if you're trying.
Gets rid of Bote's contract.
-
Mets and Cubs talking.
All of the mess I post today is from Twitter.
-
Baseball America just ranked the 35 prospects changing hands this month. Keibert Ruiz and Josiah Gray were 1 and 2.
For the Cubs:
Deichmann 9
Vizcaino 12
Alcantara 13
Palencia 19
Horn 27
Ball 29
-
We'll take him. With Abrams, TYVM.
-
Hosmer is reportedly available.
-
Trading Kris Bryant would leave Patrick Wisdom as the only 1B currently on the 25-man roster.
It would also leave an open spot on the 25-man roster.
-
How bad would it be if the Cubs were done dealing (can't find a dance partner) and Bryant, Kimbrel and everyone else stays a Cub?
Beyond whatever you can imagine.
-
Trading Kris Bryant would leave Patrick Wisdom as the only 1B currently on the 25-man roster.
-
My view is that if you get a real prospect by trading a good player as a rental, you do it. If all you're going to get is a mediocre prospect(s), I'm fine with hanging on to the player.
-
Boy its gonna be hard on The Show playing with a Cub team lead by Hoerner,Happ,Contreras,Marisnick, and Heyward.
-
Agree - no to Voit. Just play Rivas the rest of the year. Pair him with Wisdom or Schwindel if you can get him straightened out.
-
How bad would it be if the Cubs were done dealing (can't find a dance partner) and Bryant, Kimbrel and everyone else stays a Cub?
-
The Yankees want to dump Voit and the Cubs need a first baseman. Bote for Voit, it lowers the Yankees CBT number and gives them a bench bat with versatility.
Why? An absolute butcher at 1B and having a terrible year. What does Voit help you do, exactly? You aren't going to be competitive next year and it's not like he helps you all that much even if you're trying.
-
The Yankees want to dump Voit and the Cubs need a first baseman. Bote for Voit, it lowers the Yankees CBT number and gives them a bench bat with versatility.
-
Twitter says look for Davies to be packaged with Bryant or Javy.
-
Kaplan said Heyward, Arrieta, Rizzo, Sogard and Bote where/are the the players who refused the vaccine.
Flip Bote to the Pads in the Kimbrel-Hosmer deal. Happy to see the backside of all of them.
-
Stark said 10 teams are on Kimbrel and Rogers agrees.
There's literally no contending team that couldn't use the best closer in baseball in any given season. and trading for him has the bonus of keeping all your competitors from getting him.
-
Stark said 10 teams are on Kimbrel and Rogers agrees.
-
Kaplan said Heyward, Arrieta, Rizzo, Sogard and Bote where/are the the players who refused the vaccine.
-
Baez and Bryant linked to Mets per Heyman.
-
Watching these players get shipped out, thinking about how long it could be before we're winning again, and looking at the URL for this very page:
http://bbf.createaforum.com/general-discussion/cubs-in-'21/2100/
...for a second it looked like it was saying, "Sure, the Cubs will be competitive in '21... twenty-one hundred!"
-
Is the deadline passed or is it midnight or tomorrow midnight?
Friday 4pm eastern.
-
Is the deadline passed or is it midnight or tomorrow midnight?
-
Hendricks has enough club control where he might still be around by the time you’re trying again. And if not there’s still time to flip him later.
Contreras, otoh, makes little sense. No way you’re competitive next season and you’re just going to end up dumping him at the deadline anyway - probably for far less than now unless he has a big bounceback year.
-
By all means bring him back when his career is done. The prospects are going to have more value and they can sign another veteran to mentor the kids.
If they are actually going to try and put out a respectable team then keep him, otherwise burn it to the ground.
-
After the deadline passed I think the Cubs need to lay out a clear roadmap of what they are doing. If the plan doesn’t involve spending a lot money in the off season with a higher payroll then I’m really struggling with what the point of keeping Hendricks and Willson is.
I think the Cubs see Hendricks almost as a second pitching coach. They want him around Jordan Wicks...I think they're hoping he's Hendricks-like with more velocity. Hendricks will be with the team until his contract runs out. And if he wants a post-playing career in baseball, he'll be in the Cubs organization for a long time after he retires as a pitcher.
They should extend Contreras. But if they're not going to spend this offseason, then I agree that he probably should be traded.
-
After the deadline passed I think the Cubs need to lay out a clear roadmap of what they are doing. If the plan doesn’t involve spending a lot money in the off season with a higher payroll then I’m really struggling with what the point of keeping Hendricks and Willson is.
-
The Dodgers payroll is almost double what the Cubs are spending this year. The Ricketts family is being cheap and not investing in this team. The whole point of being a big market team is to be able to out spend your opponents by obscene amounts. FWIW the Brewers have $70 million on the books for next year before arbitration. The Cubs if the give a contract to all of their arbitration players are on the hook for $80 million. My guess is that the payroll next year will be lower than this year.
https://mobile.twitter.com/barstoolchicago/status/1334896257475678208
Don’t forget this beauty from when Tom last had the guts to show up.
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
Dodgers now seem to be the Steinbrenner era Yankee spenders. Don’t think that’s the bar for anybody else.
In any case, Cubs payroll was higher than Dodgers in 2019 and 2018. Ricketts even outspent the Yankees one of those recent seasons.
But, the larger point is the year-to- year contention and a World Series. If that’s terrible, I’ll take it.
That’s the past, granted.
Going forward, we’ll see. Let’s state the obvious. Will take excellent player development, good decisions by the baseball people, and smart spending from ownership. All three—-and more. Remains to be seen how these play out.
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Keith Law likes the Rizzo trade for the Cubs.
https://theathletic.com/2740334/2021/07/29/cubs-get-a-strong-return-for-a-declining-anthony-rizzo-keith-law/
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I think Javy is 50/50. The rest are likely gone. The only thing Ricketts is doing is paying salary for prospects. Small things I guess.
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So I guess it's safe to assume that tomorrow's gonna be a very interesting day.
Kimbrel,Javy,Bryant,Davies?
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The Dodgers payroll is almost double what the Cubs are spending this year. The Ricketts family is being cheap and not investing in this team. The whole point of being a big market team is to be able to out spend your opponents by obscene amounts. FWIW the Brewers have $70 million on the books for next year before arbitration. The Cubs if the give a contract to all of their arbitration players are on the hook for $80 million. My guess is that the payroll next year will be lower than this year.
https://mobile.twitter.com/barstoolchicago/status/1334896257475678208
Don’t forget this beauty from when Tom last had the guts to show up.
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
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And, Reb, I'd certainly agree with your comment that the big picture of the Ricketts' ownership has been a real success! (so far)
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Thank you, CUBluejays.
Yeah, I'd certainly agree that you'd think Cubs could have found a way to hang on to Darvish and make a better run, but does all of that fall on Ricketts? I'm not sure a more creative front office leader couldn't have found a way. Theo always was persuasive enough to get the budget or whatever else he needed (though budget issues are probably why Theo left). Still, the early returns on Jed don't appear real great (tho' that story is in chapter 1 - he certainly could have held on to Schwarber rather than use about the same money for Joc P, though lack of starting pitching is certainly what sank the ship.
I'd also point out that we had a payroll significantly larger than MIlwaukee's AGAIN. However, Milwaukee has David Stearns!
Man, I'd flip Jed for that guy in a heartbeat! (if only)
I'll hope Cubs will keep their ear to the ground and go after Stearns if there's ever an opportunity. Stearns sure seems like the real deal and, at the end of the day, great baseball leadership is WAY more important than any player or two or three.
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That’s short-term stuff. And unfair.
The big picture is that the Ricketts took over a floundering organization, hired first-rate folks to run baseball operations, and within a few years won a friggin World Series!
Thereafter, until this season, they have been big payroll spenders and on-field contenders.
And, Covid has played a big role in the current cutback, as Cubs were way more debt leveraged because of the Wrigleyville collateral stuff. Yes, they are investors trying to make money and the latter has now clashed with baseball operations, given Covid, in a way not helpful to winning.
And, Marquee probably isn’t doing much for bottom line, yet at least.
So, yes, the current spending situation is disappointing. But, let’s not reinvent the world every couple of years. The big picture has been a huge success.
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Ricketts is just the family and they have sucked post Darvish signing.
Since Darvish was signed they have not invested additional money in the team. The Cubs only ended up with Kimbrel because of Zobrist’s ex-wife. The Cubs dropped their payroll around $60 million this year. They where the only team that was “trying” to win to do that. The budget is set by Ricketts family and I 100% believe they are using money from the Cubs to pay for Rickettsville. This tear down doesn’t have to happen to the extent it will, but it is happening because that is what the family wants.
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CUBluejays, I like your stuff, but am not clear why you say "Ricketts sucks." His Dad sucks, but seems like Tom has been a solid leader for us.
Of course, I had 50+ years as a diehard Cub fan before he arrived, so I'll offer that I haven't had the bar set super high for Cub ownership.
But, let's not forget, he was the guy who was smart enough to bring in Theo AND get the hell out of his way.
A World Championship, which seemed unattainable to some of us 10 years ago, might well not have happened by now with any other owner.
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Jake Jewell will have #65. His nickname is "Bob".
Very disappointed to see him bringing that garbage number with him from the Angels. Maybe I'll forgive him if he pitches well.
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The difference between a back of the top 100 prospects and prospect 250 is a lot less then the difference in value between 50 and a top 5 prospect.
Hassell is a fun OF, but he isn’t worth 4 years of suck.
The Cubs have been at or near the luxury tax since from 2016-2020. Ricketts sucks, but they have spent money post WS.
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I'm not taking on Hosmer for Gore, Campusano, or Hassell. But, for Abrams, they can have Kimbrel and I'll take all of Hosmer's contract.
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The Cubs are not going to be spending like the Yankees or Dodgers, period. And for the next couple of years they're likely going to be in full tank mode. Even if you assume Ricketts will ever threaten the LT again now that he has his ring (which is a very valid question) it's not going to happen anytime soon. By the last two years of Hosmer's deal Heyward will be off the books in any event. If taking that on gets you a legit Top 100 prospect (and you're not doing it otherwise) it's the right thing to do.
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Is that how lux tax threshold works for traded players? Did not know.
The luxury tax would be the AAV - any retention. For midseason it would be the percent of the season multiplied by the AAV.
If it was going to be Hassell, Hosmer and $30 million for career minor leaguer and the Cubs could move the cash to the end of the contract then great. Otherwise it is a big nope for me.
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Is that how lux tax threshold works for traded players? Did not know.
Same, I didn't realize that either. Helpful.
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The cash isn’t the issue. It is the AAV at $18 million that will be used to calculate whatever salary limit is. Marquee breaking to a Rizzo interview in 10-15 minutes.
Is that how lux tax threshold works for traded players? Did not know.
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As we think about what it would mean to eat Hosmer's contract, note that a 60FV grade hitter (Abrams) is worth about $55M. A 55FV grade hitter (Campusano) is worth about $46M. A 55FV grade pitcher (Gore) is worth about $34M.
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Heyward set to make $44M over 2 years, or $22M/yr. Hosmer set to make $59M over 4 years, or $14.75M/yr. $7.25M difference per year. Another way to think about it: Heyward costs approx 50% more than Hosmer. Hosmer also has an opt-out after next year, so if he thinks he can beat 3/$39 on the market it's even less of a commitment. (I doubt he'll exercise the opt-out.)
Yes, $14.75M is a significant overpay for Hosmer, but if that puts a Abrams, Gore, or Campusano on the table, could very well be worth it.
KB, Kimbrell (and cash?) for Hosmer and the entire SDP farm system :)
The cash isn’t the issue. It is the AAV at $18 million that will be used to calculate whatever salary limit is. Heyward’s AAV is $23 million. Say the luxury tax/salary cap is $250 million in the future, Hosmer will account for 7% of that for 4 years. Heyward and Hosmer would be 16% of that for 2 years.
Marquee breaking to a Rizzo interview in 10-15 minutes.
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Look at what heyward’s contract has done to the Cubs ability to spend. There is only a $5 AAV difference between the Heyward and Hosmer.
Yeah, it would be gross. An argument might be that *IF* you scouted/developed/lucked-out super well, *if* a Hosmer/Kimbrel package turned into *TWO* good starting players, occupying a couple of spots with cheap young 6-year-control guys might be good value for $13/year? I'm not suggesting that's a good argument. Just that *IF* the Cubs were to hypothetically make such a deal, I don't expect it would be a logic-less decision. And that it's probably so illogical that it won't happen. :):)
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Jordan Bastian
The Rizzos are walking around Wrigley Field, getting some final photos here.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E7gG7F_WUAU-_wg?format=jpg&name=900x900)
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Heyward set to make $44M over 2 years, or $22M/yr. Hosmer set to make $59M over 4 years, or $14.75M/yr. $7.25M difference per year. Another way to think about it: Heyward costs approx 50% more than Hosmer. Hosmer also has an opt-out after next year, so if he thinks he can beat 3/$39 on the market it's even less of a commitment. (I doubt he'll exercise the opt-out.)
Yes, $14.75M is a significant overpay for Hosmer, but if that puts an Abrams, Gore, or Campusano on the table, could very well be worth it.
KB, Kimbrell (and cash?) for Hosmer and the entire SDP farm system :)
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Look at what heyward’s contract has done to the Cubs ability to spend. There is only a $5 AAV difference between the Heyward and Hosmer.
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Very surprised at the return for Rizzo. Even with the Cubs picking up "all his salary." Rizzo doesn't make a ton. Probably unreasonable to set expectations for a Kimbrell return based on this deal, but I'm certainly optimistic at this point...
I don't know what to think about the Tepera return, but I very much like what we've gotten for Chafin and Rizzo. Kudos to Hoyer and team.
A note on the Cubs' farm system. Where they're rated middle of the pack by Fangraphs, FG also noted that the Cubs are among a small handful of teams with extreme upside at the lower levels of the minors, and that they are very likely to rank significantly higher next year. That's before trade deadline activity. I suspect that by the end of the season, we'll be widely considered a top-10 system, if not higher.
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I admire your optimism in thinking Hosmer's $15m annual salary is going to be pushing the Cubs against the cap/LT in the next four seasons...
Hosmer is $13M/year for his last 3 years. That would be an ugly anticipated waste. Still, it's not quite like Heyward-scale or anything like that.
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I have no clue when the Cubs are going to spend again, but if they aren’t trying to spend with Padres until after 2025 this is going to suck horribly. There isn’t a reason to keep Contreras or Hendricks then.
I think you're creating a false dichotomy here.
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I'm guessing the Yankees think the short RF porch will be Rizzo-friendly?
I'm guessing they're right.
How about KB to the Red Sox now? If they need a 1B he can certainly do that too.
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I admire your optimism in thinking Hosmer's $15m annual salary is going to be pushing the Cubs against the cap/LT in the next four seasons, given that apart from Hendricks and Heyward they basically have nothing allocated. Who are you expecting the new owner to be?
With Rizzo bringing back two pretty decent prospects, at least on paper you:d expect KB to fetch more. He's having a better season and has far more defensive value with his versatility.
I have no clue when the Cubs are going to spend again, but if they aren’t trying to spend with Padres until after 2025 this is going to suck horribly. There isn’t a reason to keep Contreras or Hendricks then.
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I'm guessing the Yankees think the short RF porch will be Rizzo-friendly?
There was a tweet about that:
Sarah Langs @SlangsOnSports
Anthony Rizzo has 14 HR this season
If all of his 2021 batted balls over 300 ft had been hit at Yankee Stadium? He'd have 23 HR
Unsurprisingly, like with Joey Gallo, that's the most of any single ballpark
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I'm guessing the Yankees think the short RF porch will be Rizzo-friendly?
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On Hosmer his contract runs through 2025, that why you don’t do it. It is going to be a decent guess that there is at least another luxury tax or a hard salary cap. Even if the Cubs just cut him that is going to be less money that the Cubs can spend at some point when they actually try and be good in the future.
The Cubs aren’t going to be competitive next year no matter how much Jed tries to sell it. They can pay his whole contract this year and next year and the Cubs could still run under $100 million on the payroll for next year.
They Cubs should take all the bad short term contracts that teams have for prospects, just not ones that last for another 4 years.
I admire your optimism in thinking Hosmer's $15m annual salary is going to be pushing the Cubs against the cap/LT in the next four seasons, given that apart from Hendricks and Heyward they basically have nothing allocated. Who are you expecting the new owner to be?
With Rizzo bringing back two pretty decent prospects, at least on paper you:d expect KB to fetch more. He's having a better season and has far more defensive value with his versatility.
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Maybe he can do the old Carlton Fisk thing. Oh, wait...
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Rizzo will have to switch numbers in New York. 44 has been retired for Reggie Jackson.
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I think SD and TB are big-time in the mix for Kimbrel, but I hope we don’t get frozen out by the Scherzer trade. The buzz is that Hosmer’s contract alone would net one of their top four prospects, and if that’s the case I’m not sure why the Cubs wouldn’t do that.
The Rays system is, as usual, ridiculous. They could give you 2-3 guys that would make our top 10 and barely make a dent in their system. But does the 16 million option on Kimbrel have any appeal for them with their perpetually modest big league payroll limitations?
On Hosmer his contract runs through 2025, that why you don’t do it. It is going to be a decent guess that there is at least another luxury tax or a hard salary cap. Even if the Cubs just cut him that is going to be less money that the Cubs can spend at some point when they actually try and be good in the future.
The Cubs aren’t going to be competitive next year no matter how much Jed tries to sell it. They can pay his whole contract this year and next year and the Cubs could still run under $100 million on the payroll for next year.
They Cubs should take all the bad short term contracts that teams have for prospects, just not ones that last for another 4 years.
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Alcantara has a career 22% K rate stateside as a 6'6" 16-18 year old. That is nuts.
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Rizzo got a lot more value back than I expected, which tempers the loss.
Doesn’t hurt when Red Sox and Yankees BOTH want your guy.
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It's still an asset even if they didn't want to use it for themselves.
Right, if can’t afford him in 22, they could trade Kimbrel in off-season and get significant chunk of value back.
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I would've preferred they traded everybody but Rizzo. While his production has declined, sometimes you don't just cheer the hits you cheer the person.
Nope. You cheer the laundry.
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But does the 16 million option on Kimbrel have any appeal for them with their perpetually modest big league payroll limitations?
It's still an asset even if they didn't want to use it for themselves.
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I would've preferred they traded everybody but Rizzo. While his production has declined, sometimes you don't just cheer the hits you cheer the person.
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I think SD and TB are big-time in the mix for Kimbrel, but I hope we don’t get frozen out by the Scherzer trade. The buzz is that Hosmer’s contract alone would net one of their top four prospects, and if that’s the case I’m not sure why the Cubs wouldn’t do that.
The Rays system is, as usual, ridiculous. They could give you 2-3 guys that would make our top 10 and barely make a dent in their system. But does the 16 million option on Kimbrel have any appeal for them with their perpetually modest big league payroll limitations?
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Going to be tough getting my head around actually seeing Rizzo in a Yankees uniform. Sad.
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Fangraphs has Alcantara as a 50 FV guy, which would put him #3 in Cubs system.
Longenhagen on Alcantara:
TLDR
Long, lanky and loaded with tools and projection, Alcantara has massive potential but still has plenty to prove.
Full Report
I've made no change to Alcantara's FV from last year since I can't find anyone from outside the Yankees org who has seen him, though his ranking among the 50 FV prospects in the system has changed based on continued conversations about him with front office personnel from other clubs. For context, Alcantara was fourth on my international list in 2018, and was one of the players the Yankees promoted from the DSL to the GCL in the middle of the summer of 2019. He was part of New York's DR instructs in the Fall. Athletic 6-foot-6 outfielders who can rotate like Alcantara can are rare, and this young man might grow into elite power at maturity. He is loose and fluid in the box but does have some swing-and-miss issues, though it's not because lever length is causing him to be late -- it's more of a barrel accuracy issue right now. This is one of the higher ceiling teenagers in the minors, but of course Alcantara might either take forever to develop or never develop at all.
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Not a bad return for Rizzo. Two prospects with some dings but especially in Alcantara’s case, a fair amount of upside.
If taking on Hosmer (I’m sure the Pads will eat part of the salary) means better players coming back, I’m all in favor.
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I can hear the promo's now, "Tony Rizzo and the Yankees take on the Red Sox Friday night."
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Apcantara is 19 in the complex league with a wRC+ of 160
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That seems like pretty good return for two months of Rizzo. Alcantara seems to have big upside according to Fangraphs' write-up.
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Adler is confirming the names. #7 and #11 prospects. For the Cubs that would be 2-3 and 8-10.
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If we can trade for Sandy, we can get a whole team of Alcantari
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Jack Curry that broke the trade.
The Yankees are trading Alcantara and Vizcaino for Rizzo. The Cubs are picking up all of Rizzo’s remaining salary.
If I’m doing the list right that is a 50 and 45 FV prospect for him and the cash.
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Voit isn’t a FA until 2025…why wouldn’t he have a future here?
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Cubs are paying all of the salary.
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Why are we trading for voit though? He has no future with us
Someone would need to play first base for the Cubs with Rizzo gone, and Voit is a pretty good hitter.
There's no indication the Cubs are actually getting Voit right now, though. Just speculation.
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Kevin Alcanarara and Vizcaino?
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Exactly
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Theo’s a big part of the reason we’re here…
Which way do you mean that? He's a big reason we won in 16? Agree. Big reason we are offloading? I agree. I just wish he had followed through with his threat, what was it, 2 or 3 years ago, to make big changes.
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Why are we trading for voit though? He has no future with us
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Theo’s a big part of the reason we’re here…
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Theo is sitting back and thinking, "I got out of there just in time."
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The thought of having Voit at 1B and him doing damage in Cardinals games does make me smile a bit…
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Nightingale is pushing Hosmer to the Cubs now….
INSERT VADER NOOOOOOOOOOP GIF
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I have seen it mentioned on Twitter a couple times today that the Yankees might look to move Voit to save money, so that’s not out of the question.
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I wonder if Voit is part of the return?
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Maybe they resign both Rizzo and Bryant after the season is over. :)
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I cant say that I disagree with not resigning Rizzo.
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The Yankees pulled Pierera from a game but Sherman said earlier it wasn’t because of a trade.
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Br beat me.
Nightengale tweeted it too.
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Yankees are close to getting Rizzo according to Joel Sherman.
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Trevor Hooth
@HoothTrevor
White Sox 2020 5th rounder Bailey Horn showed off a nice fastball last night, striking out 5 batters in 3 innings of work. The fastball got up to 96, mixed in a breaking ball too.
2021
A: 10.54 K/9, 2.30 BB/9, 2.63/2.45/3.40 27 IP
A+: 10.63 K/9, 9 BB/9, 13.09/7.89/6.68
FV: 35+ of Fangraphs. He's been a starter/reliver for the White Sox.
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I wonder if Tepera was already out in the bullpen and had to job in to the dugout between innings?
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BA's #25 prospect for the White Sox. 90-94 fastball with potential plus curve and fringy slider and change. His High-A stats this year are not pretty.
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LHP Bailey Horn for Tepera
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Tepera is being reported.
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Hey man says Cubs and white sox are making a trade.
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More roster moves
Additionally, the #Cubs have placed RHP Dillon Maples on the 10-day IL (blister) and recalled RHP Trevor Megill from Iowa.
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Kiley McDaniel believes the Mets are going to be the next big position player trade.
Jon Morosi
@jonmorosi
·
49s
Source: #Cubs, #RedSox have discussed an Anthony Rizzo trade as recently as the last 24 hours.
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Jake Jewell will have #65. His nickname is "Bob".
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Jewell will be OK until they ask to see his hat and glove.
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I think Jewell has been throwing 97/98. He's supposed to be really impressive along with Leeper and Rodriguez.
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Bastian:
Update:
• Nico Hoerner to 10-day IL with right oblique strain
• Sergio Alcántara recalled from Iowa
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https://twitter.com/cubprospects/status/1420777607688343554?s=21
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07/29/21 Chicago Cubs optioned RHP Cory Abbott to Iowa Cubs.
07/29/21 Chicago Cubs placed RHP Kohl Stewart on the 60-day injured list. Right elbow inflammation.
07/29/21 Chicago Cubs selected the contract of RHP Jake Jewell from Iowa Cubs.
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I’m concerned about the potential of that. So many moving pieces. Try to optimize them all and you risk running out of time or being stuck with the leftovers.
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He'll scru around long enough that his bargaining position disappears and we get even less. Prepare to be disappointed.
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Seeing all these other trades… I’m like, let’s gooooo Jed!
Gotta find new homes ASAP for Davies, Bryant, Rizzo, basically the entire bullpen…
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Mike Hawk just tweeted that sources have informed him that Eric Sogard has been officially released.
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Eric Sogard, who was DFAed five days ago, has been officially released.
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Does he have a Twitter account with rumors cause watching the Cubs is painful.
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I wonder what his cousin, Mike Hunt, has to say on the matter...
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Mike Hawk on Twitter apparently called the prospects headed to the D-backs for Escobar before everyone else and he did the same with Frazier to the Padres. He was saying that Kimbrel to Padres was being held up by clearing money to stay under the Luxury tax. He said that they where going to do this by trading Hassell and Hoser to the Rangers for Gallo. Gallo just got scratched. I have no clue if this guy has any idea what going on, but at least the craziness is fun.
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Try to be build a .500 team.
i.e. the GarPax Bulls. That:s generally what happens when you try to "thread the needle" between rebuilding and competing now.
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Jesse Rogers
Javy Baez will be fined (not suspended) for his actions two nights ago after walking off the Reds in the ninth, per a source. He was very happy with the hit off Amir Garrett.
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Dave, you can find this kind of info on any player on their Baseball Reference page—-near bottom of page listing contract details.
Thanks. I looked on ArizonaPhil's site, but it only mentioned that he was signed for next year.
Hendricks is the most underrated player on the team, at least among many on this board. He is about as close to a top tier starter as they are likely to get for quite a while. And he has been for about 5 years.
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Not exactly shocking but a new item from Morosi.
Jon Morosi
@jonmorosi
The #Dodgers have spoken with the #Cubs about multiple players, and closer Craig Kimbrel is among them, source says.
@MLB
@MLBNetwork
1:25 PM · Jul 28, 2021·
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Hendricks has the greatest trade value on the team. But I think his value to highest to the Cubs, so it would have to be a blockbuster to trade him. I know he is signed for at least one more year. Do they control him beyond next year?
Dave, you can find this kind of info on any player on their Baseball Reference page—-near bottom of page listing contract details.
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Looks like Hendricks is signed through 2023.
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Hendricks has the greatest trade value on the team. But I think his value to highest to the Cubs, so it would have to be a blockbuster to trade him. I know he is signed for at least one more year. Do they control him beyond next year?
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https://twitter.com/charlsmeow/status/1420438857091190789?s=21
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I'm not sure what the Blackhawks are doing can even be called that. The Blackhawks had 1st round picks and cap flexibility, now the have Jones, maybe a 1 year goalie rental and a first round pick in 2023.
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The Cubs send Kimbrel pulse enough cash to cover the next 2 years of his contract to make it affordable and Dipito sends fun prospects to the Cubs.
Bryant, Kimbrel, and cash to the Mariners for Julio Rodriguez. Maybe DiPoto got Abraham Toro as the "additional" piece to make it work.
Get it done, Jed.
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Or what the Nashville Predators are currently calling a "competitive rebuild".
I hate it when GM's who have been around for too long use eyeroll-worthy phrases like that.
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Try to be build a .500 team.
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What are the Blackhawks doing now that the Cubs are trying to do next year?
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So the Mariners have a revolt in the clubhouse and could use a closer. The Mariners have a fun farm system, but probably can’t afford Kimbrel’s contract. The Cubs send Kimbrel pulse enough cash to cover the next 2 years of his contract to make it affordable and Dipito sends fun prospects to the Cubs.
I kinda see what the Blackhawks are doing this off season as what the Cubs are going to try and do in 2022. I don’t really love it but that is where the Cubs are.
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Andrew Baggerly is reporting that the Giants are backing off any Bryant trade that involves Bart.
Bart is mashing in the PCL, but he has a 28% K% as well. Concerns about contact are the reason he’s dropped in rankings.
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By Anthony Franco | July 27, 2021 at 9:05pm CDT
With the Cubs selling off established players on the big league roster, Kris Bryant is one of the game’s most obvious trade candidates. The 29-year-old is slated to hit free agency this winter, and past extension discussions with the Cubs haven’t resulted in a deal.
Even if Bryant does wind up changing uniforms in the next few days, he’d remain open to returning to the North Side via free agency. “Oh yeah, absolutely,” Bryant replied when asked if he’d be willing to sign with the Cubs this winter if they trade him midseason (via Patrick Mooney of the Athletic). “Like I’ve said, I love this place. It’s all I’ve known. The familiarity of being here and this city and the people make it a lot easier to say, ‘Yeah, of course, I’d love to play here.”
That’s not to say such a situation is likely. The Cubs haven’t spent at particularly high levels in free agency over the past few seasons, and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has previously spoken about there being inevitable turnover on the roster in 2022 and beyond. Bryant also didn’t give any indication he’d take any sort of discount to return to Chicago.
Nevertheless, it’s at least a bit notable the former NL MVP would be happy to return to the Cubs after being traded if that situation happened to present itself. Bryant’s willingness to stay in Chicago beyond his initial window of team control has been the subject of some speculation since the Cubs held him in the minors to open the 2015 season in order to gain an extra year of control over his services. Bryant’s camp filed a grievance (which he ultimately lost), although the four-time All-Star has perennially maintained that situation would not preclude him from signing a long-term deal with the Cubs.
It remains to be seen where Bryant will end up for the season’s final couple months, although it seems a near certainty he’ll be traded. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported this morning that the Rays had had “preliminary discussions” about a potential Bryant acquisition.
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Anthony Franco | July 27, 2021 at 9:50pm CDT
The Giants and Cubs have had discussions about a possible Kris Bryant trade, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). Chicago is evaluating San Francisco catcher Joey Bart as a possible part of those conversations, according to Morosi, although he unsurprisingly adds the Giants aren’t likely to give up Bart for Bryant alone.
Bryant has plenty of experience at third base and all throughout the outfield, making him a viable fit on the rosters of plenty of contenders. San Francisco’s expected to get Evan Longoria back from the injured list next month, so the front office is likely eyeing Bryant as a potential outfield pickup. Giants left fielders (primarily Alex Dickerson) have a below-average .214/.288/.395 slash line this season.
Bryant could also offer some cover in center field. Steven Duggar has had a great season, but he’d never before hit at anything near his current .284/.358/.484 clip. Moreover, Duggar’s current .405 batting average on balls in play is unsustainably high, masking an alarming 31.6% strikeout rate.
Finances might be a concern for many clubs interested in Bryant (like the Rays, reported to have had preliminary discussions about a potential deal this morning). The 29-year-old is making $19.5MM this season, his final before hitting free agency. About $7.13MM is still owed for the remainder of the year.
That tab shouldn’t pose much of a problem for the Giants, who have ample financial flexibility. Ownership has previously approved payrolls above $200MM, but their current figure is in the $150-152MM range in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts and Roster Resource. San Francisco’s nowhere near the luxury tax line, so there should be room for president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and general manager Scott Harris (a former Cubs’ assistant GM) to spend to upgrade a roster that currently leads the Dodgers by two games in the NL West.
Of course, Bart would be an ambitious ask for less than half a season’s worth of work from Bryant alone (although he is reportedly the most likely Giants top prospect to move in the next few days). The former #2 overall pick hasn’t yet found major league success, but he’s a highly-touted young talent. Baseball America slotted the right-handed hitting backstop as the game’s #22 overall prospect in their updated top 100 list this week. While Buster Posey has catcher locked down at the big league level in San Francisco this year, Bart has had a strong campaign at Triple-A Sacramento. The 24-year-old is hitting .310/.372/.532 in 188 plate appearances, his first crack at the minors’ highest level.
There’s no indication the Giants and Cubs are in specific discussions on players other than Bryant, although it’s possible the sides could work out some sort of package deal. Speculatively speaking, relivers Craig Kimbrel and Ryan Tepera could hold appeal to a Giants bullpen that has pitched well but is generally short on past high-leverage experience. Kimbrel would be the more impactful — but far more expensive — pickup. He’s playing out the season on a $16MM salary (about $5.85MM of which remains), with a $16MM club/vesting option for 2022. Tepera, meanwhile, is making an $800K salary and will reach free agency at the end of the year.
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Marco Luciano for both of them and call it a day.
Maybe something like KB and Tepera for Bart could work.
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Not saying Joey Bart wouldn’t be a good get…he would, but a year ago (2020 Fangraphs mid-season top 100), Bart was #5 overall.
Now, Fangraphs 2021 mid-season, Bart is #65.
His stock is dropping, as unclear whether he will hit as anticipated. That’s why he might be available. But, #65 is still pretty good, of course. Probably a starting-level catcher.
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Morosi did follow that up with a tweet saying that it would probably require more than just Bryant to get Bart. The Giants also seem like one of the best fits for Kimbrel, FWIW.
Marco Luciano for both of them and call it a day.
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Morosi did follow that up with a tweet saying that it would probably require more than just Bryant to get Bart. The Giants also seem like one of the best fits for Kimbrel, FWIW.
Which is the opposite problem- Bart isn’t enough for Kimbrel straight up.
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Morosi did follow that up with a tweet saying that it would probably require more than just Bryant to get Bart. The Giants also seem like one of the best fits for Kimbrel, FWIW.
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Morosi reporting that Joey Bart is on the table as a Bryant return from SF. I’m very, very skeptical they’d do that but he’d be a fantastic get for a KB rental.
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https://www.mlb.com/news/amir-garrett-discusses-javier-baez-walk-off
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Rogers to the IL and pick up Rex Brothers to replace.
wrong topic?
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Rogers to the IL and pick up Rex Brothers to replace.
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The #Cubs today recalled LHP Kyle Ryan and RHP Cory Abbott from @IowaCubs.
RHP Keegan Thompson was optioned to Iowa.
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Of course, I'm just an armchair/internet scout, but a couple of less publicized names I've come across that I'd be interested in acquiring are Rays IF Taylor Walls and Giants OF Luis Matos.
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Diechman is a righty mashing corner OF. If he can keep the walks and lower K rate and find a way to tap into the power he could get to be really interesting.
Palencia just by his height seems to be more likely a relief pitcher, but having little pro experience with a big fastball and a breaking ball you probably let him stay at starter as long as he can physically handle it.
Not a bad return for Chafin, who seems like somebody the Cubs would want back next year. It isn’t team altering, but it is a couple of nice pieces that can help.
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Alleged back-up catcher Austin Romine, currently on 60-day IL, has begun a rehab assignment with ACL Cubs.
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Or do doubt him, but he did say it was a name discussed.
Blind Squirrel regarding name discussed.
Dead Wrong about the “report.”
Amateurville.
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Kimbrel got his second win tonight, so his trade value is UP, right?
Only impact of a poor outing at this point of the season, after a season-long track record of success, is if the guy looks injured or gets injured in the game. Otherwise, it’s recency bias.
whatever
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I was worried that he had destroyed his trade value with that outing. In terms of recognizable names, we got for Chaffin than we got for Yu. Yes, I know the jury is still out.
Kimbrel got his second win tonight, so his trade value is UP, right?
Only impact of a poor outing at this point of the season, after a season-long track record of success, is if the guy looks injured or gets injured in the game. Otherwise, it’s recency bias.
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Longenhagen:
Palencia was signed in February of 2020, so it was technically the 2019 signing period, and of course we had no season in which to evaluate him. He came out in 2021 Extended throwing huge heat in just an outing or two before he was sent to Stockton not long before list publication. He was 97-99 in those outings. Palencia is a squat young man with a longer arm action, but he has feel for creating bat-missing breaking ball depth, and he obviously has a huge arm. There is less track record here than is typical for most 21-year-old prospects but Palencia has a long developmental runway because he only just signed. He's an exciting prospect because of his arm strength and breaking ball, but the rest is still out of focus because industry exposure has been limited to just a few innings.
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Probably about as good of a return as you can hope for.
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Daniel Palencia is the second player. 21 and has hit 100 as a starter. Stats aren’t great. He was the #12 guy on Fangraphs.
He Was signed Feb 2020 so he has little experience and is a short righty. The breaking ball is supposed to be good to go with fastball.
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There Fangraphs list doesn’tNick Allen would be amazing, but I doubt the A’s deal him for Chafin.
Charles the Cat threw out Jorge Juan as a name. He is a Barstool guy.
Or do doubt him, but he did say it was a name discussed.
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Rumored to be high-A 22 year-old pitcher Jorge Juan, who would be… sort of a prospect. Not a bad second piece if so.
As I said! 😛
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Jorge Juan.
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Rumored to be high-A 22 year-old pitcher Juan Jorge, who would be… sort of a prospect. Not a bad second piece if so.
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Would be nice if the other guy is an actual prospect and not just a lottery ticket. Deichmann is fine as return on a Chafin rental, but he is old for a prospect, has a big injury history and his numbers adjusted for that bandbox of a ballpark are less impressive.
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Deichmann just batted an inning ago with LV and still playing defense.
I don’t know, maybe they don’t pull about-to-be-traded guys out of the game at AAA like they do in majors.
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Too bad Chafin was hit around on Saturday.
Deichmann probably would be 24 or 25 instead of 26 but for that outing.
I was worried that he had destroyed his trade value with that outing. In terms of recognizable names, we got for Chaffin than we got for Yu. Yes, I know the jury is still out.
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Too bad Chafin was hit around on Saturday.
Deichmann probably would be 24 or 25 instead of 26 but for that outing.
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Deichmann is on A’s 40-man.
So, guessing he comes up to majors if/whenBryant is traded.
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Deichmann is about right as a headliner for Chafin.
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Longenhagen:
There's a rift between Deichmann's obvious raw power and his in-game power production. He hit nearly as many home runs during his six-week 2019 Fall League stint as he did during his entire season that year at Double-A Midland, where his statline may have been compromised by an injured shoulder. It was the latest of several weird injuries that have limited Deichmann's playing time. He was hit in the face by a pitch in 2017 and required surgery, then broke a hamate in '18, the shoulder in '19, and then there was the pandemic. We're still talking about a 26-year-old corner outfielder who has struck out in excess of 30% of the time at his last couple stops, and that's scary, but Deichmann crushes righties and is pretty likely to play some sort of part-time role, at least. His walk rates exploded early in 2021 and it only took him a couple of weeks to accumulate nearly as many walks as he did in all of '19. This may be a small sample blip or an indication of a change that could enable Deichmann to fit in as more than just a corner platoon bat, but he's most likely that.
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From Emily Waldron
Deichmann has the ideal frame for the profile of a raw power bat. Has dropped his K% from 30.3% in 2019 to 23% this season. Among scouts, the swing-and-miss has been a concern, but the power potential is easy to like. Great kid, great attitude and work ethic. #Cubs
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9th best OPS on Vegas for a 26 year old OF. 19% BB%, 23% BB%.
8th best prospect on Fangraphs.
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Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
Triple A outfielder Greg Deichmann one of two players Cubs are acquiring for left-hander Andrew Chafin, sources tell @TheAthletic. Deichmann, a second-round pick in 2017, is batting .300 with an .881 OPS for Las Vegas.
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Rosenthal says Greg Diechman 1/2 players.
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Juan is a 22 year old in A ball. 18 IP, 5 G 4 starts. 37.8% K%, 7.6% BB%. 2.50 ERA. Fangraphs had him at 35+ FV to start the year. 60/60 fastball, below average secondaries, 30/50 command.
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There Fangraphs list doesn’tNick Allen would be amazing, but I doubt the A’s deal him for Chafin.
Charles the Cat threw out Jorge Juan as a name. He is a Barstool guy.
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Kantrovitz came from the A's...maybe he targeted someone he really likes that the A's don't value as much for whatever reason...
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Heyman piggybacks on Rosenthal as well...as per the norm...
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Rosenthal says A’s
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Well, this is a legit source and not Suq Madiq or whoever Dusty’s “source” was, so credible. Chafin was a lock to be dealt but I thought he might get packaged with Bryant or Rizzo (or even Kimbrel).
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For a guy who was a Cub for less than a year, he left his mark. Hate seeing him move on.
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Watching the Reds telecast, which is just horrible...Brennaman's replacement is just god-awful...
So I guess I'll be missing hug watch in the bullpen...
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Chafin trade incoming.
Via Mark Feinsand for the sticks in the mud.
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They’re opinions by pros, but opinions. Not claiming hard evidence. When they have hard evidence, they say it in a way that seems like hard evidence.
In Buster’s case, seemed to be based on “stuff” he heard, so I thought particularly interesting. He’s not claiming more than “stuff” heard. I took that to mean not hard evidence but more like informed opinion.
“Made up fantasies” are all over the online universe made by non-professionals. For me, that kind of thing is less than worthless.
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I saw another report that he could head to Giants. I wonder how many of these projections are made up fantasies by these guys.
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On Buster‘s podcast today, he was discussing with Kurkjian where Kimbrel likely to be traded.
Buster said “based on some stuff I heard over the weekend,” Buster picking the Dodgers. Kurkjian guessed Red Sox or Dodgers.
Would not mind getting one of the Dodgers top two catching prospects in a deal.
Wonder (me) if Dodgers also might be interested in Davies, what with having a few of their starters hurt or in limbo.
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Gordon Wittenmyer
Javy expected to be out of lineup at least a day or two with bruised heel from yesterday’s play in 8th (hit bag awkwardly running out grounder).
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Abrams value a 60 FV prospect is about $55 million so they'd need to add to him to dump Hosmer's contract.
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LOL, we don't have the guy that could get CJ...
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If it’s cj and Trent then yes.
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What if it got you an extra top 100 guy AND Trent Grisham?
It was also mentioned that Grisham might be movable because they see Abrams in CF at some point in 2022.
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https://twitter.com/ken_rosenthal/status/1419665449122402314?s=21
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I'll take Gore, off season or no.
I'd take Gore, mechanical issues or no.
Pitching lab candidate
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18 million AAV through 2025. Around $68ish million is left on the contract, depending on what is left this year. He’s been worth -0.4 fWAR this year.
If it is CJ Abrams sure, anyone else nope.
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What is his contract?
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No
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Would you take Hosmer's contract from the Padres in a Kimbrel deal if it got you an extra top-100 prospect?
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I'll take Gore, off season or no.
If they can get Abel for Kimbrel, take that and run to the bank.
I'd take Gore, mechanical issues or no.
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Thats why I said "reportedly".
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If they can get Abel for Kimbrel, take that and run to the bank.
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Bleacher Nation on the source of the Kimbrel report:
Bleacher Nation @BleacherNation
I see a lot of folks sharing a Craig Kimbrel report from "Mike Hawk," and my good friends, until Seymour Butts confirms, you should not be running with it.
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Kimbrel reportedly to the Padres.
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The Phillies are the worst of the bunch though, prospect-wise.
I don't see why the Cubs shouldn't get a Torres caliber prospect for Kimbrel. He's the best closer in baseball and under team control for next season as a reasonable price. At the very least it would need to be two 50-100 guys, and the Phillies can't do that.
The Cubs do have some leverage here - they can always pick up the option and see what they can get over the winter. That's obviously not the preferred option but it's not as if they have to trade Kimbrel now or get nothing for him at all.
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Dombrowski probably the only GM will trade his top guys. I don’t think the Cubs are going to get a Torres type prospect for Kimbrel. Abel might be the top of what is obtainable for him and getting him into the Cubs pitch lab would be fun. Stott is in AA and is kinda interesting.
The only really team with a farm system that has been mentioned with Kimbrel is the Blue Jays. The Astros and A’s systems aren’t great. The Braves and Mets aren’t loaded.
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I'm confident that Hoyer will f it up. Be patient.
You're telling a Cub fan "be patient"?
In all seriousness, Jedster will probably play out the Kimbrel drama as long as possible, trying to whip up a bidding frenzy. Waiting is always risky for deadline dumps - partners can find other partners, guys can get hurt. Kimbrel is certainly the main event for us and it helps that he's basically unique and there really isn't a single contender that wouldn't love to have him. But in theory, he could go out tomorrow and revert to a wildman or give up three home runs - it's not totally impossible. Risk-reward, like anything else.
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I would want better than the two prospects the Phillies say they're refusing to trade for Kimbrel, so I don't really see how that's going to work.
I'm confident that Hoyer will f it up. Be patient.
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I agree, but Dombrowski keeps saying he has the ammunition and the go-ahead. I wonder who he's talking about.
I would want better than the two prospects the Phillies say they're refusing to trade for Kimbrel, so I don't really see how that's going to work.
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This issue with the Phillies is they simply don't have the prospects to trade for Kimbrel. Chafin or Tepera, maybe.
I agree, but Dombrowski keeps saying he has the ammunition and the go-ahead. I wonder who he's talking about.
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The Phillies and Cubs just make a ton of sense as trade partners. The Phillies need a bullpen and the Cubs can give them that including an elite closer. The Phillies system isn’t great, but they have some interesting guys in Abel, Slotts and Rojas.
This issue with the Phillies is they simply don't have the prospects to trade for Kimbrel. Chafin or Tepera, maybe.
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https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-trade-deadline-potential-landing-spots-for-cubs-stars-with-kris-bryant-anthony-rizzo-more-on-the-block/
All just speculation, but some interesting options here.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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The Phillies and Cubs just make a ton of sense as trade partners. The Phillies need a bullpen and the Cubs can give them that including an elite closer. The Phillies system isn’t great, but they have some interesting guys in Abel, Slotts and Rojas.
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Saturday night, Cubs optioned Trevor Megill to Iowa.
Possible or even likely that Bote coming up for Sunday’s game.
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Ross seems to want to avoid prolonged slumps with Happ.
So, when Happ is in a mini-slump, Ross tends to give him a day or so off.
Happ now in a 1 for 15 mini-slump.
Also, collaterally, seems like Ross wants to see what he has in Ortega. An older guy but with lots of team control going forward.
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I guess it's just normal due diligence, but I find it fascinating that scouts are sent to watch in person major leaguers with extensive track records.
Totally agree. What's he going to report? "Boss, it was kept under wraps, but Buzz had his left foot amputated."
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Why is Heyward playing over Happ? Wouldn’t it be in the Cubs long term interest to get Happ straightened out vs watching Heyward ground out to second base?
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I guess it's just normal due diligence, but I find it fascinating that scouts are sent to watch in person major leaguers with extensive track records.
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Only 6 days to go until the trade deadline.
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
Mets are scouting Cubs-Dbacks in Chicago (and others elsewhere presumably). Of interest there: Bryant, Escobar, Davies, relievers. Jays and Phillies are among teams with scouts at Clark and Addison, as well.
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I think we should start calling him "The Shwy".
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His speed rating on The Show is 94.
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Johneshwy is one of those guys whose ridiculous number is surpassed by his amazing name.
You can only have so much craziness on one player so I hope we give him one of our many remaining reasonable numbers.
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Jordan Bastian
Update on lefty Brad Wieck (on IL with irregular heartbeat): Undergoing ablation procedure in near future. No timetable. Similar to what he had done two springs ago.
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The #Cubs today claimed OF Johneshwy Fargas off waivers from the Mets and optioned him to @IowaCubs
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LHP Brad Wieck has been transferred to the 60-day IL.
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Sogard ends his Cubs career with the clutch 2-out game-tying double against the Cardinals. Kinda fun.
Perhaps also reminder that the idea "Cubs offense is too XYZ, what they need is more contact" is not well resolved by adding a guy who's a great contact hitter but nothing more.
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SWEET!!!!
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Jordan Bastian
Cubs moves:
• Eric Sogard DFA’d
• Matt Duffy activated
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My autocorrect really doesn’t like prospects names.
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Should that be Mark Vientos?
Yes it is.
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Finally out of the black hole that is the internet in South Dakota. I lost cell service once Bryant was pulled and that was really frustrating.
Fangraphs had a piece on potential trades.
Rizzo to the Red Sox for Noah Song, Chris Murphy and Cameron Cannon
Bryant to the Mets for Mark Vientiane and JT Ginn
Kimberl to the Jays for SS Kevin Smith, 3B Jordan Groshans and IF Miguel Hiraldo
The writer views Smith as a 3 WAR SS. He is 25 and hitting well in AAA, but he is supposed to be below average on defense. I think Kimbrel trade as light, cause I don’t buy Smith as that good of a get. The other two seem reasonable even though. Going to be a sad day.
Should that be Mark Vientos?
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Finally out of the black hole that is the internet in South Dakota. I lost cell service once Bryant was pulled and that was really frustrating.
Fangraphs had a piece on potential trades.
Rizzo to the Red Sox for Noah Song, Chris Murphy and Cameron Cannon
Bryant to the Mets for Mark Vientiane and JT Ginn
Kimberl to the Jays for SS Kevin Smith, 3B Jordan Groshans and IF Miguel Hiraldo
The writer views Smith as a 3 WAR SS. He is 25 and hitting well in AAA, but he is supposed to be below average on defense. I think Kimbrel trade as light, cause I don’t buy Smith as that good of a get. The other two seem reasonable even though. Going to be a sad day.
Been looking at those proposals, and I'd actually be OK with all of them, if not thrilled with any of them. There was another Mets proposal too (with no Ginn and de la Cruz) which stinks on ice.
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I agree with you there, too, Deeg. Going anti-awful in a tank year isn't a huge deal. And do NOT want to commit long-term dollars.
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Finally out of the black hole that is the internet in South Dakota. I lost cell service once Bryant was pulled and that was really frustrating.
Fangraphs had a piece on potential trades.
Rizzo to the Red Sox for Noah Song, Chris Murphy and Cameron Cannon
Bryant to the Mets for Mark Vientiane and JT Ginn
Kimberl to the Jays for SS Kevin Smith, 3B Jordan Groshans and IF Miguel Hiraldo
The writer views Smith as a 3 WAR SS. He is 25 and hitting well in AAA, but he is supposed to be below average on defense. I think Kimbrel trade as light, cause I don’t buy Smith as that good of a get. The other two seem reasonable even though. Going to be a sad day.
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Better to trade Rizzo. Better for him and better for us.
I agree, but the buzz among some of the Cubs press guys is that the club doesn't want to deal with the embarrassment of trading him for next to nothing (which is what you'll get). If that's the case then going to QO-compensation route is the far better option than an extension.
The alternative, of course, is if you can package him with someone more valuable - like Kimbrel or Chafin or Baez - you can pretend that he brought a satisfactory return.
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Better to trade Rizzo. Better for him and better for us.
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I agree with those questions, reb. Especially with your question about if he goes, who comes? Bote or Rivas? Fans may be disappointed that an average bat with an elite glove isn't great. But we might get way, way, way, way worse.
We're not going to be contending anyway, so is it really a big deal? Rizzo may in fact be a 3 WAR player for the next couple of years, or a 2 WAR player - but he's very unlikely to be more than that. Losing that level of production is a lot less damaging to the rebuild than making a large financial commitment in order to keep it. Whether you trade him for scraps or offer him the QO (which he'll never take but honestly has little downside for the club either way), that's better than tying up money for 3-5 years to keep him around.
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..My take is that very unlikely to see Rizzo repeating his prime seasons—-when he was around a 6 WAR player in his mid-20s. Last year, he was a 3 WAR player pro-rata of a 60-game season. That’s still a good, above average player.
If you combine full 2020 (no pro rata) and 2021 so far——which combined is almost one full season——he’s been a 2 WAR player——an average regular.
For me, the question is whether Rizzo, going forward, can play at his 2019 form when he was a 4 WAR guy, which is all-star or near all-star caliber. Think that’s a reasonable possibility.
It’s a complicated question: how telling is the weird 2020 season for any player (see Baez in 2020)? Is Rizzo going to get hot this year as season progresses? Is the back contributing to anything here? What kind of salary/term will it take to sign him? Who would replace Rizzo? Rivas up from AAA—do you want that? Many other questions.
I agree with those questions, reb. Especially with your question about if he goes, who comes? Bote or Rivas? Fans may be disappointed that an average bat with an elite glove isn't great. But we might get way, way, way, way worse.
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Rizzo being discussed on other thread. Thought discuss here.
My take is that very unlikely to see Rizzo repeating his prime seasons—-when he was around a 6 WAR player in his mid-20s.
Last year, he was a 3 WAR player pro-rata of a 60-game season. That’s still a good, above average player.
If you combine full 2020 (no pro rata) and 2021 so far——which combined is almost one full season——he’s been a 2 WAR player——an average regular.
For me, the question is whether Rizzo, going forward, can play at his 2019 form when he was a 4 WAR guy, which is all-star or near all-star caliber. Think that’s a reasonable possibility.
It’s a complicated question: how telling is the weird 2020 season for any player (see Baez in 2020)? Is Rizzo going to get hot this year as season progresses? Is the back contributing to anything here? What kind of salary/term will it take to sign him? Who would replace Rizzo? Rivas up from AAA—do you want that? Many other questions.
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Expected that Alcantara would be optioned…. to make room for Duffy.
So, in turn, now seems like a pitching move to make room for Duffy.
Thing is that Duffy coming off 60-day, so somebody has to come off the 40-man too.
Wonder if, maybe, this means a pitcher now on the active roster about to be traded?
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The #Cubs today recalled RHP Trevor Megill from @IowaCubs and optioned INF Sergio Alcántara to Triple-A.
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I think it might really benefit Bryant and Rizzo to be traded to contending teams. They both seem to need a mental reset and it would not surprise me to see them playing at All Star levels with new teams.
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What I meant was that I think Bryant is very likely to be back on the field by tomorrow in which case there won't be any impact on his tradeability.
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Who was it a few years ago that got hurt so he couldn't be traded. I think someone had a deal in place but he was left on the field.
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Probably not if he is not back on the field by then.
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That'll likely happen by this weekend.
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Taking Bryant out of yesterday's game because of a potential hamstring problem might well have destroyed the chances of trading him for anything decent. I suspect no one will make a serious offer until they are sure that he is back on the field and showing that he is healthy.
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I could understand it if he was ALWAYS like that. But he had a couple of rather good offensive seasons.
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It’s hard for me to fathom that a guy like Jason Heyward, who is as athletic as he is, and has as many years at the big league level as he does, can look this bad at the plate.
Coming into tonight, in 213 AB, he’s hitting .207 with 6 HR and 19 RBI.
As bad as Michael Jordan was at Birmingham, I believe that he could have put up at least those numbers given the experience and the opportunity…pretty easily…
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Are the Nationals and Phillies true buyers or are they just trying to raise the cost to the Mets? In either case, it's a plus for the cubs.
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We'll be lucky if we get Almora back from the Mets for Bryant.
Actually, since Castro is being investigated for domestic abuse, and his good buddy Harper is there, Philadelphia might be interested in Bryant.
I think we'll do better than that (and I do think that's the most likely landing spot). Somewhere in-between that and one of those top-100 types.
Something like Bryant (or Baez), Davies, and Chafin might pry a decent prospect return from the Mets.
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https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/phillies/phillies-trade-deadline-buyers-dave-dombrowski
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We'll be lucky if we get Almora back from the Mets for Bryant.
Actually, since Castro is being investigated for domestic abuse, and his good buddy Harper is there, Philadelphia might be interested in Bryant.
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Bleacher Nation blogs about an SI report that the Mets could trade Ronny Mauricio or Mark Vientos for Bryant:
https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2021/07/19/report-mets-prospects-ronny-mauricio-and-mark-vientos-could-be-in-the-cards-in-a-kris-bryant-trade/
I would assume that’s very much on the high end of possible returns for Bryant. But the Mets have a lot of needs and may be feeling a bit panicky, so some sort of blockbuster multi-player deal might be on the table there. I could see a mutual fit with Baez, too.
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The #Cubs today activated RHP Dillon Maples from the 10-day IL and optioned LHP Kyle Ryan to @IowaCubs
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Bleacher Nation blogs about an SI report that the Mets could trade Ronny Mauricio or Mark Vientos for Bryant:
https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2021/07/19/report-mets-prospects-ronny-mauricio-and-mark-vientos-could-be-in-the-cards-in-a-kris-bryant-trade/
Interesting…..but when the writer (SI guy) uses the term “could potentially be” that very likely means the writer is speculating about names and has no real source that those guys are actually available for Bryant.
My own guess is that you’d have to package Bryant with another player(s) to have a realistic chance to make a deal like that.
Is going to suck seeing Bryant in another uniform whenever that happens.
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Bleacher Nation blogs about an SI report that the Mets could trade Ronny Mauricio or Mark Vientos for Bryant:
https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2021/07/19/report-mets-prospects-ronny-mauricio-and-mark-vientos-could-be-in-the-cards-in-a-kris-bryant-trade/
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Minor league career K/PA of about 15%.
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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/07/cubs-claim-frank-schwindel-off-waivers-from-athletics.html
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Boog is very good, but too often he forgets he's not the attraction.
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Two-man booth, with JD and Boog or Sutcliffe and Boog, works a heck of a lot better than a 3-man booth with these guys.
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https://www.milb.com/south-bend/news/rowan-wick-rehab
Hallelujah!
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https://www.milb.com/south-bend/news/rowan-wick-rehab
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Yeah, that Ball goes from ranked #12 at Pipeline in a higher rated Braves system to #29 in a lower ranked Cubs system tells us that the .209 average impacted his prospect status.
Of course, it’s a partial season so far, so if he hits from here on out, maybe Ball moves way up. This stuff is volatile, obviously. So, it’s not a bad return if the guy moves way up based on a hot month or two.
Or, maybe it happens in 2022.
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Post trade Fangraphs redid his rankings.
30/45 hit
35/60 game power
70/70 raw power
40/40 speed
45/50 field
First number is what he’d project as a major leaguer right now. Second number is his projection. His projection would be a .250/30 HR player with average defense.
For comparison in 2016 Vogelbach was rated by Longenhagen as
45/50 hit
60/60 raw power
45/50 game power
20/20 run
30/30 field
I think people are getting too hung up on stats. We are coming off a season where no minor leagues games where played. I’m going to be more interested on how guys end playing and StatCast numbers than BA and ERA. I have no clue what Ball is going to be, but he has big power and has hit previously in the minors. He was upside and the Cubs gave up somebody that wasn’t going to be part of the team next year for it. Perfectly fine trade, some of you are way overthinking this.
Fangraphs has him at 17 as a 40+ player. That tier of player starts at 10 in the Cubs system.
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Ball is currently is a career .278 hitter in the minors. Does nine points make that much difference.....
No. If we'd gotten Ball before this season, with the former scouting reports based on his 2019 season, I'd have been really interested. But if he's now been exposed as a .209 hitter in A-ball at age 23, then I'm pretty doubtful, and assume that whatever scout wrote up the 60 hit tool would take it back and re-score that by a lot.
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You were never going to get more than a lottery ticket for Joc, so no reason to be disappointed with Ball. I'm not sure I buy the argument that he proves Hoyer is prioritizing high-ceiling guys (any more than the Darvish trade, where he simply got held up by the Padres and took what they were willing to give), given that he has no defensive position and will never hit for average, but at least he has a useful skill if he somehow pans out.
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While Vogelbach as a prospect shared the positional liability and the perceived power asset, the distinction was that he was perceived as, and actually was, a good hitter, and a reasonably good contact guy. Despite his lack of speed or infield hits, he was a career .287 hitter in the minors.
Ball is currently is a career .278 hitter in the minors. Does nine points make that much difference.
The scouting report on Ball gave him a 60 rank as a hitter. That is better than just about anyone currently in the Cubs minor league system. Or for that matter, probably better than just about everyone currently in the Cubs major league system.
Of course, the odds of anyone in the low minors ever becoming an impact player in the majors is pretty slim. Even top 100 prospects mostly top out as average players, if they make it at all. But this one at least has some tools that look promising. Let's go out and get 20 prospects just like him, and we should get one or two useful major leaguers.
Better than none.
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He’s going to Boston. I don’t know man like how can you get excited about a hitter hitting .207 in the minor leagues? Batting average is key.
How about someone that hit over .330 in the minors. Can we get excited about him?
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Exciting
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Eric Sogard returns from the IL and takes Joc Pederson's roster spot.
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Boston’s farm system is pretty meh.
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I'd say Boston is likely but California wouldnt be too big of a shocker either.
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He’s going to Boston. I don’t know man like how can you get excited about a hitter hitting .207 in the minor leagues? Batting average is key.
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Jon Heyman says the Cubs are trying to extend Baez and Rizzo before the deadline but that ship has sailed with Bryant.
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Ball reminds me in many ways of Dan Vogelbach. Potential great power combined with no clear position to play.
Probably an apt comparison in many respects……and with the imminence of the DH in the NL (likely in 2022 and going forward), value of a DH-type carries more value for Cubs now than it did in 2016.
We’ve been kind of spoiled with very good 1B defense here, Rizzo, Grace, and bad 1B defense is very unappealing.
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Pipeline has revised its Cubs prospect rankings and Ball is now Cubs #29 prospect.
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Agree w/ CBJ: pleasantly surprised the Cubs got Ball for Joc, especially if they didn't have to throw any money in.
Regarding Ball's bat, he's basically rated similar to Caissie, but with more power. Ball's 1B/DH profile depresses overall value vs Caissie (which is why Caissie is rated 45FV vs +40FV for Ball), but this is a legit prospect bat.
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The Rangers once threw in Kyle Hendricks, teams can make mistakes. Ball is a long shot, but he is certainly more interesting than what I thought they'd get for Joc.
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I don't mean to sound dismissive of Ball. Anybody with that level of power is an interesting longshot, why not take a chance. But I think the reality that the Braves presumably are taking on >$4M of contract for two months of a mediocre/liability guy in Joc, plus are tossing in Ball besides, suggests that they view his value as insignificant.
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While Vogelbach as a prospect shared the positional liability and the perceived power asset, the distinction was that he was perceived as, and actually was, a good hitter, and a reasonably good contact guy. Despite his lack of speed or infield hits, he was a career .287 hitter in the minors. Interestingly, for all of his power reputation, he only had one minor-league season >20HR (23), the season the Cubs traded him for Montgomery. And then he had the crazy 30 HR season for seattle.
Had Vogelbach been the same kind of contact hitter, but hitting 40 HR a year, he'd be in the league and be a value guy. But when drafted, I think it was the combo of power AND pure hitting that appealed, and gave the possibility of David Ortiz or whatever. I'm guessing that Ball with the power but without the contact hitting is only half the prospect that Vogelbach was, thus being drafted in the 20's-rounds instead of the 2nd.
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Ball reminds me in many ways of Dan Vogelbach. Potential great power combined with no clear position to play.
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Observation:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHC/2021.shtml
The Cubs came within one game of going the entire month of May without ever losing a game by more than one run. (Something they can't seem to go a day without doing now.) On the next-to-last day of May, they lost 5-1 to Cincinnati; every game they played until then was either a win or a 1-run loss.
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Pederson actually has minus bWAR with Cubs—because of his defense.
0.2 fWAR.
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He has a "Prospect Live" OFP ranking of 40. That would put him between #22 and #31 in the Cubs system.
Below average fielding first baseman. Slow runner. Substantial power.
Currently hitting .207 with 6 homers in High A. He hit about .330 in 2019 in Rookie and Low A, with 17 home runs.
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Ball originally signed for late 7th round money, according to Pipeline, although drafted later than that.
Was Braves #12 prospect in a top 10 farm system. Pipeline moves guys around after transactions, so will be interesting where they place him in Cubs system. Guessing will be lower than #12.
Duffy and Bote coming back soon. Ortega happy about this move—-gets to stay.
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Atlanta Braves number 18 prospect - 2021
Bryce Ball
Age: 22 yr
Height: 6-6
Weight: 240 lbs
Hits/Throws: L/R
Acquired: 2019 Draft, Round 24
RuleV: 2022
Report
Video
Physical Description: Tall and well filled out. Broad shoulders with tree-trunks for legs. Well filled out upper body. Ready-made body with little projection, long levers.
Hit: At the plate, there is very minimal pre-pitch movement for Ball, he stands tall with a slight bat wag. When he swings, the bat-path starts linear with a slight bit of loft towards the end of the swing through the zone. He shows average bat-speed which will allow him to catch up to premium velocity. Ball has a very pull-heavy approach where he easily taps into his power. He looks to attack fastballs thrown on the inner half of the plate. Pitches thrown on the outer-half are a place in which pitchers can attack Ball because the quality of contact goes down, leading to weak flares that go to the opposite field. He shows an average understanding of the strike zone and will draw his fair share of walks. Ball does have a tendency to swing and miss at breaking stuff, even fringy breaking balls. I have concerns about his ability to recognize spin out of the hand, and how more advanced pitchers with better breaking stuff will take advantage of Ball. Grade: 40
Power: Ball has the power to hit the ball out of any ballpark. He generates average bat-speed and has tremendous raw strength. He doesn't have to sell out to reach his plus power. He has double-plus raw power but in-game it is closer to plus power. He looks to use that power to deposit batted-balls towards the pull-side where he easily taps into his power. Opposite field power is average for him, but that is rare. Grade: 60
Field: In the field, there is little to be encouraged when watching Ball, he is a below-average defender at first base. There is nowhere else for him to play on the field, limiting him to being a potential designated-hitter. He lacks lateral agility and is overall stiff in his movements. He sets a good target in large part due to his huge frame but is below average when he needs to scoop throws off the dirt. In double-play situations the less he has to move the better if he can just be a target at first he is fine, but if he has to make the initial throw it results in failed double plays because of his lack of agility. Grade: 40
Arm: The arm is fine at first, the few times you see him have to use it he can throw well to second-base to initiate the double-play. It is accurate and has average carry. Grade: 45
Run: Ball has a short and choppy stride with a below-average first-step. He will not be a base-running threat because of his lack of a good jump off the bag or general foot speed. Grade: 30
Overall: Ball will have to consistently hit for power for him to be a consistent big-league role player. He is someone who is a below-average defensive first-baseman so the easiest pathway for him to be anything at the big leagues is as a designated hitter and there are questions if he will hit enough to profile there consistently. The power is the carrying tool and if he keeps hitting for power as he goes against more advanced pitchers. This is a three true outcomes profile, and he will need to hit for power and keep the strikeouts down to be considered a bench piece.
OFP: 40
Role: 40 - Below-Average Player: Bench or Role
Risk: Moderate
Evaluator: Rhys White
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Potential does not equal present or even something achievable.
He’s a high risk older prospect with some upside. Chances are great that he flakes out and becomes nothing, but he could be something more. You aren’t getting a sure thing for Joc, I frankly thought it was going to be a reliever prospect.
I think we are getting an idea of what Hoyer is going after in trades. It is going to be high upside/low floor. Theo tended to be lower ceiling/higher floor.
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...
.207/.354/.396
Famgraphs has him a potential 60 hit tool, 70 raw power...
I wonder if the "hit" tool was largely based on 2019, but 2021 hasn't necessarily confirmed that rating...
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Unless the Cubs are paying $$, they're also offloading both >1/3 of this year's $4.5 deal, plus the $2.5 buyout. >$4M combined.
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Pretty fringey prospect but that's fine, not like you're getting anything more for Pedersen with the year he's having.
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https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/sports/baseball/2021/04/02/meet-atlanta-braves-first-baseman-prospect-bryce-ball-mlb-mason-city-iowa-native/6880738002/
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40-man roster stands at 39.
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SSS alert!
Ball in July:
.242/.390/.515
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I think Ball is a stat darling.
.207/.354/.396
Famgraphs has him a potential 60 hit tool, 70 raw power
19% BB%, 27% K%
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Ball's hitting .207 in single A.
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So it’s starting.
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And so it begins.
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For minor leaguer Bryce Ball.
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Joc Pederson to the Braves.
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The other factor with the QO bit is that one or more of the guys might take it? Which the Cubs might not mind?
A second is that the guys have 10 days to explore the market before accepting or rejecting. Assuming the Cubs would be interested in resigning some of them, giving them some free opportunity to get some market-input might help the Cubs? Often agents anticipate their guys hitting market and getting big-star offers. But if you use the QO window to explore the market and don't find the interest you'd wanted, maybe it then becomes easier to accept a market-realistic offer from Cubs? Maybe the same offer that you've been turning down for some time?
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Rogers mentioned the return for position players not be great at the deadline. The optics of letting Bryant go for a mediocre return and wanting to make Bryant the call guy for leaving. Ryan’s to the Mets was still mentioned as a possibility.
I’d mention the demand for Rizzo and Baez is going to pretty light. Not a lot of contenders have a whole at 1B or SS. Baez’s value is hurt because he’d be the second best SS on the market behind Story.
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The Cubs would get a pick after before round 3 (after comp round B which is after round 2) for each player the lose with a QO.
If the Cubs where to lose players with the QO and they where over the luxury tax it would be a pick after the 4th round.
What picks or IFA money is lost by the signing team has no effect on what a team gets.
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Matt Duffy in the lineup tonight with Iowa beginning his rehab assignment.
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Craig, you're a bad reader.
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Play, that post dealt with a lot of the QO landscape, but most particularly what pick(s) a team who signs a FA will lose.
Maybe I'm a bad reader, but I don't think that included what a FA-losing team receives in compensation?
Which may be more what's relevant to the Cubs. What would we GET if we QO'd Bryzzo/Baez, and they all left? That's presumably written up elsewhere in the CBA, yes?
It's not that we directly receive whatever pick(s) the signing team loses, correct? Instead, we'd get comp picks either in front of round 3 or in front of round 4? And maybe a piece of international spending money?
Or, for example, if a team such as the following signs our guys, "• A team that exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season will lose its second- and fifth-highest selections in the following year's Draft as well $1 million from its international bonus pool" would we directly get their specific 2nd and 5th picks, and their $1M in bonus pool?
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Looks like Bryant is going to Boston.
?????
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Got me, Dog.
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Looks like Bryant is going to Boston.
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Play Two — you did not post that off the top of your head, nobody can do that. You cheated.
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Qualifying Offer
Definition
The qualifying offer is a competitive balance measure that was implemented as part of the 2012-16 Collective Bargaining Agreement and restructured under the 2017-21 Collective Bargaining Agreement.
Note: Teams became subject to the following parameters beginning between the 2017 and 2018 seasons.
Clubs wishing to receive compensatory Draft picks for the loss of a free agent can make a one-year "qualifying offer," worth the mean salary of MLB's 125 highest-paid players, to their impending free agents prior to the onset of free agency if and only if:
1. That player has never received a qualifying offer previously in his career.
2. That player spent the entire season on that team's roster (in-season acquisitions are ineligible).
A player will have 10 days to accept or decline the qualifying offer, during which time he can negotiate with other teams to survey his market value. Should a player decide to accept the qualifying offer, he is signed for the following year at that predetermined rate (i.e., the mean salary of the league's 125 highest-paid players). If a player rejects the qualifying offer, he is free to further explore the free-agent market.
MLB Draft compensation
Any team that signs a player who has rejected a qualifying offer is subject to the loss of one or more Draft picks. While a team's highest first-round pick is exempt from forfeiture, any additional first-round picks are eligible. Three tiers of Draft pick forfeiture -- which are based on the financial status of the signing team -- are in place to serve as a penalty for signing a player who rejected a qualifying offer.
(Note: Each pick in the first 10 rounds of the Draft has an assigned value, and the total for each of a club's selections equals what it can spend on signing bonuses for players selected in those rounds without incurring a penalty. When a team forfeits a Draft pick, it also surrenders the accompanying bonus pool money associated that pick, independent from any money forfeited from its international bonus pool per the rules below.)
• A team that exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season will lose its second- and fifth-highest selections in the following year's Draft as well $1 million from its international bonus pool. If such a team signs multiple qualifying offer free agents, it will forfeit its third- and sixth-highest remaining picks as well. If that team loses a free agent, it will be awarded a Draft pick immediately following the fourth round. The Astros, Cubs and Yankees exceeded the threshold in 2020.
Examples: A team with one pick in each round of the 2021 Rule 4 Draft would lose its second- and fifth-round picks. A team with two first-round picks and one pick in each subsequent round would lose its second-highest first-round pick and its fourth-round pick.
• A team that receives revenue sharing will lose its third-highest selection in the following year's Draft. If it signs two such players, it will also forfeit its fourth-highest remaining pick. If that team loses a free agent, it will be awarded a pick between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A if -- and only if -- the lost player signs for at least $50 million. If the lost player signs for less than $50 million, the team's compensation pick would come after Competitive Balance Round B, which follows the second round.
The following 14 teams qualify for these picks during the 2020-21 offseason: Brewers, D-backs, Indians, Mariners, Marlins, Orioles, Padres, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers and Twins.
Examples: A team with one pick in each round of the 2021 Rule 4 Draft would lose its third-round pick. A team with two first-round picks and one pick in each subsequent round would lose its second-round pick.
• A team that neither exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season nor receives revenue sharing will lose its second-highest selection in the following year's Draft as well as $500,000 from its international bonus pool. If it signs two such players, it will also forfeit its third-highest remaining pick. If that team loses a free agent, it will be awarded a Draft pick immediately following Competitive Balance Round B. The 13 clubs that fall into this category during the 2020-21 offseason are the Angels, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox and White Sox
Examples: A team with one pick in each round of the 2021 Rule 4 Draft would lose its second-round pick. A team with two first-round picks would lose its second-highest first round-pick.
The Draft-pick compensation is also based on the financial status of the free agent's former team
Like standard Draft picks, compensatory picks in a given tier are ordered in accordance with the previous season's standings. If a team with MLB's worst record and a team with a .500 record both lose a free agent that signs for more than $50 million, the team with the worst record would receive the higher of the two compensatory picks.
Players who are unsigned after the start of the Rule 4 Draft in the year that follows the rejection of their qualifying offer are no longer tied to draft pick compensation and can be signed without their new club needing to forfeit a draft pick.
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QO?
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Jesse Rogers implied on the radio that Bryant, Baez and Rizzo are more likely to get a QO rather than traded.
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Agreed
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If they can sign only one of them, I hope it is Contreras.
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A leader.
Thats why I'd hate to lose Willson.
He should be our Yadier Molina.
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Asked if the effort was there, he replied: “No, I don’t, to be honest. I feel like everybody was off. Everybody was distracted. I don’t know why. Probably because the All-Star break is pretty close. (Sunday) is the last day of the first half. I don’t think that way, but I didn’t think we were on today.” Contreras said he considers himself a team leader but didn’t feel like he could say anything to his teammates about the effort. “I think there is a lot going on,” he said. “There are a lot of things I’d like to say, but I’d rather keep it to myself than say it. That’s it.” “That’s on everybody’s work ethic and job,” he said. “We have to win as a team, but also I cannot ask everybody to play like I do or to play like Baez and I play. Everyone is different. I know they might be tired, but I’m here to win. I’m here to compete, and that’s what I like to (get) from everybody else.”
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Basically Contreras calling out his teammates for lack of effort and commitment, not like "Javy and me".
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These next few weeks could get really ugly.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/cubs/ct-chicago-cubs-st-louis-cardinals-20210711-dscbn3xg4ngmtbjmztwdgvrmau-story.html
Care to share any sections of the article for those of us who do not subscribe to the Trib?
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These next few weeks could get really ugly.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/cubs/ct-chicago-cubs-st-louis-cardinals-20210711-dscbn3xg4ngmtbjmztwdgvrmau-story.html
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The Cubs haven't gotten a lot of breaks the last few years, but launching one of the biggest fire sales in recent memory in this market is terrible timing. The number of teams in legit contention is the smallest it's been in many years at this point in the season - baseball is as top and bottom heavy as it's been in decades.
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Kyle Hendricks now has as many wins as a Cub as Kerry Wood.
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All this speculation is interesting up to a point.
The collective bargaining agreement between MLB and the MLBPA expires December 1, 2021. There won't be any free agent signings prior to that date. When will a new agreement be reached and signings resume? I'd be shocked if the 2022 season starts on time.
I don't doubt that the collective bargaining process is going to complicate things. But I don't see that it's very likely to affect whether Bryant, Baez and/or Rizzo remain with the Cubs whenever the next season starts.
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All this speculation is interesting up to a point.
The collective bargaining agreement between MLB and the MLBPA expires December 1, 2021. There won't be any free agent signings prior to that date. When will a new agreement be reached and signings resume? I'd be shocked if the 2022 season starts on time.
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Of the 3 I'd try to keep Bryant.
Pay him.
"F" what it costs.
I'd trade Rizzo and Javy.
Im inclined to want to keep Contreras too but Amaya could change my mind.
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It is beginning to sink in that it is a very real possibility that Bryant, Baez and Rizzo could all be gone before the next season. It makes me sad, but I must say that it seems like it's probably time for everyone to move on. We'll always have not only a World Championship, but several really exciting seasons (2015-2018) in spite of some disappointing endings.
In spite of his injuries, Bryant is the guy I would most want back. He's clearly capable of MVP type performance when healthy, he plays five positions, providing acceptable or better defense at all of them, he's a fine baserunner and he's continually working to be a better hitter. He also seems like a solid, no drama guy not only on the field but off of it. But he's destined for free agency and it's unlikely that the Cubs will match or beat the best offer he gets from someone else. I hope I'm wrong about that.
Baez is arguably the most exciting player in MLB, and can carry the team when he's on. If he leaves, we'll really miss his tags, his exceptional plays, his slides and his dramatic HRs. But after all these years he seems to have reverted to his undisciplined approach at the plate, seemingly incapable of laying off low outside balls outside the strike zone. His extraordinary defensive plays are mixed in with, at times, sloppy defense. Javy seems to have become something of an all or nothing player, perhaps epitomizing what the team itself has become. He was foolish to have turned down the offer the Cubs made before the pandemic. I suppose it's possible that Hoyer can reach an agreement with Baez that is acceptable to both, but I suspect that Javy and his agent think he's worth a lot more than the Cubs do. Maybe as a free agent he'll discover the Cubs provide his best option?
I was once sure Rizzo and the Cubs would come to an agreement, but his refusal of the Cubs offer and his less than stellar season have led me to think it's pretty likely he'll be gone, probably through free agency. I agree with everything Ben said in his earlier post.
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So we're are on the National's plan, with shitter offensive players... wtf.
Adding Siemien, while 2 of the big 3 doesnt move the needle at all... nor does it help that there are significant holes being created by next year's FA class...
And also, this does nothing to address the pitching staff.
The only way out of this is a full rebuild. or the Ricketts pretending they are George for a summer. I got even money on its not the latter.
It would be Bryant, Rizzo + a Free agent SS, SP. So yeah the Cubs would have to spend a lot of money and that probably isn't happening. I get that.
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Rizzo was the leader and a "glue" guy when the team was getting good and going good.
However, he hasn't seemed to be that guy the last couple of years.
Seems like he may want out and little doubt that he tweaked management and lots of fans with his anti-vax stance (still hard for me to believe).
We will all appreciate what Rizzo did for the Cubs, but he doesn't seem like that guy to me any more either. I'm sort of sad just thinking that.
All things must pass.
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I'm baffled by this idea that we should sign Rizzo to a big contract and write him in as a stud in the middle of the order. What have these mediocre last two seasons done to suggest that makes sense? He's on the wrong side of 30, clearly is no workout fanatic, and seems unlikely to ever be the guy he was a few years ago for an extended stretch of time. Unless he wants to sign a very lowball offer, let him walk.
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In a super tough stretch, once again Kyle Hendricks dominates the Cards and re-establishes himself as a Top 20 starter in the NL.
In an era in which plus fastballs and curves get the attention, it's rather amazing Hendricks is still doing it with his non-electric stuff!
Over his last 17 starts against the Birds, he's 12-1 with a 2.41 ERA. Card fans throw their hands up when he takes the bump vs them. :)
And, over the last two months vs ALL teams, he's unbeaten - 9-0! He's gone at least 6 innings in each of his last 11 starts!
The guy just knows how to pitch! He's our gift for Freaking Larry Himes being such a dope!
Before starts, Maddux used to wear a T-shirt that said: "Change speeds. Work fast. Throw (what appear to be) strikes."
Hendricks could wear that shirt most appropriately now. And maybe add a bullet: "Watch hitter's swings - slow them down/speed them up."
Our guy can really pitch!
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Hoyer is saying it won't be a rebuild, but if you just retain Rizzo to get back to where the Cubs are on offense you need one more guy stud in addition to Semien. Then you have to address the stink hole that is the Cubs rotation. On offense the Cubs at least have Davis coming up sometime in 2022.
If the Cubs kept Bryant, Rizzo and replaced Baez with Siemien or Seagar and add Davis to the OF at some point in 2022 I could see an upgraded offense developing. They still need to spend a significant amount on the rotation though. They will have Hendricks, Alzolay then 3 wholes. If you add say Scherzer on a short term deal, bring back Davies and then hope Thompson or Steele could by your fifth starter maybe that works and going cheap on the bullpen. That team with 1 more starting outfielder could compete, but are the Cubs going to spend that much money? It will be interesting to see what happens in the next month and the off season to say the least.
So we're are on the National's plan, with shitter offensive players... wtf.
Adding Siemien, while 2 of the big 3 doesnt move the needle at all... nor does it help that there are significant holes being created by next year's FA class...
And also, this does nothing to address the pitching staff.
The only way out of this is a full rebuild. or the Ricketts pretending they are George for a summer. I got even money on its not the latter.
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br, I don't know that I track your logic, or if I do that I'd come to the same conclusion. Or maybe I don't understand the premises of your logic chain?
Suppose a player and his agent hypothetically want to "bet on themselves". Happ thinks he's a good player maybe stepping into a really good career, and wants to get paid like a really good player. So, are you saying the Cubs should have just paid Happ a long-term really-good-player contract last winter, and paid whatever long-term extension it would take? Suppose the agent hypothetically thinks Happ had a chance to become a >$20/year guy; he wouldn't settle for less than $90/6 to give up that opportunity. Are you saying the Cubs should have paid $90/6 to get him extended, if that's what it took? I don't see how that would have been wise, especially given the caliber of play that he's provided thus far this summer.
Or are you assuming a premise where Happ would have accepted a cheapish contract?
Or are you assuming that other teams loved him enough that the Cubs could have gotten a big haul in trade? I'm not sure that was true, given how vulnerable Happ has always been to K's and to velocity above his hips.
Or are you saying they should have just said, if he doesn't sign a cheap extension, you were going to trade him for the best the market would offer, no matter how modest that might be?
I guess in a sense I'm wondering how wise it can ever be to fault moves *unmade*, unless you actually know what the best financial deal was that was available and went untaken; or what the best trade offer was that was made, but that went untaken.
When a deal *IS* made, it's fair to look at is and say "Man, we should have outbid the Giants for DeSclafini", or "we shouldn't have paid Arrieta X", or "we shouldn't have traded XYZ for Quintana."
But much harder to fairly say "we should have signed Bryant/Baez/Rizzo/Happ" without knowing what they turned down. If that makes sense?
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With Ian Happ coming off the bench a lot of days, it's frustrating that the Cubs didn't learn their lesson from their situations with Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Contreras, Schwarber, etc. Last offseason was the time to make the hard decision they couldn't make with the other guys. They should've either committed to him and figured out an extension while they still could. Or they should've traded him at top value before he got too close to free agency.
Instead, they did nothing. Now his value might be at an all-time low and he's getting close enough to free agency that he won't bring much back on the trade market even if he rebounds.
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Assume Baez and Bryant both leave...
What does everyone think of Marcus Semien as a Cub next season. I'd hit him leadoff, with Hoerner in the two hole.
What would be his best home defensively? 2B, 3B, or SS?
Hoyer is saying it won't be a rebuild, but if you just retain Rizzo to get back to where the Cubs are on offense you need one more guy stud in addition to Semien. Then you have to address the stink hole that is the Cubs rotation. On offense the Cubs at least have Davis coming up sometime in 2022.
If the Cubs kept Bryant, Rizzo and replaced Baez with Siemien or Seagar and add Davis to the OF at some point in 2022 I could see an upgraded offense developing. They still need to spend a significant amount on the rotation though. They will have Hendricks, Alzolay then 3 wholes. If you add say Scherzer on a short term deal, bring back Davies and then hope Thompson or Steele could by your fifth starter maybe that works and going cheap on the bullpen. That team with 1 more starting outfielder could compete, but are the Cubs going to spend that much money? It will be interesting to see what happens in the next month and the off season to say the least.
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Jordan Bastian
Brad Wieck (0.00 ERA with 28 K in 17 IP this season) has dealt with a heart issue in the past. Here's a story from @Russ_Dorsey1
in spring 2020:
https://www.mlb.com/news/brad-wieck-returns-to-cubs-after-heart-procedure
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Cubs announce that Ryan Tepera has been reinstated from the IL. Kyle Ryan recalled, and Cory Abbott has been sent to Iowa.
Brad Weick is also going to the IL with irregular heartbeat.
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The priorities are going to be FAs Jed can sign on 1-2 year deals and flip at the deadline.
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Anyone less than 30 is probably getting 8-10 years…
Who should be our top priorities in FA?
Besides Brad Miller, obviously…
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He means all nine figures to the left of the decimal point.
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Since he's decent at SS I'd play him there as long as that's the case. But let's be honest - there's no way in hell the Cubs are going 9 figures on a 30 year-old FA after a fire sale.
Joc?
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Assume Baez and Bryant both leave...
What does everyone think of Marcus Semien as a Cub next season. I'd hit him leadoff, with Hoerner in the two hole.
What would be his best home defensively? 2B, 3B, or SS?
Since he's decent at SS I'd play him there as long as that's the case. But let's be honest - there's no way in hell the Cubs are going 9 figures on a 30 year-old FA after a fire sale.
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Assume Baez and Bryant both leave...
What does everyone think of Marcus Semien as a Cub next season. I'd hit him leadoff, with Hoerner in the two hole.
What would be his best home defensively? 2B, 3B, or SS?
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Being stretched as a starter, which I think is a smart move. May as well take a shot and see if he can do it.
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Cubs could have kept Steele on rehab/IL status at Iowa for up to 30 days but optioning him instead keeps him from getting major league service credit for that period.
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• LHP Justin Steele activated from the 10-day IL, optioned to Triple-A Iowa.
Get a few starts in preparation for a few at the big league level in the second half?
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Jordan Bastian
Moves for the Cubs:
• LHP Justin Steele activated from the 10-day IL, optioned to Triple-A Iowa.
• C Taylor Gushue cleared waivers, sent outright to Iowa
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Ahhh, so that's why he's been struggling so badly. :)
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The #Cubs today placed RHP Jake Arrieta on the 10-day IL with right hamstring tightness and recalled RHP Cory Abbott from @IowaCubs
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The Cubs/Ricketts need to figure out what the budget is going to be going forward. If the Cubs are going to be cheap, then they need to blow up the team and trade everyone that has value. Trying to be a .500ish team sucks. Not really watching this team since The middle of June has been a good thing.
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He's probably watched the last 11 games.
Suddenly AAA doesn't seem so bad.
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Dee Gordon opts out of contract.
He's probably watched the last 11 games.
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Dee Gordon opts out of contract.
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The Cubs made 59 roster moves in June. There have already been 11 in July.
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I think the Mets are an intriguing trade partner.
They have obvious needs at 3B and SP, and could probably use some OF depth as well...for when Nimmo goes back on the DL.
If we offered a package of Bryant, Davies, Marisnick...would that be enough to get a Baty or a Mauricio (or both) in return? Mauricio in particular is blocked for the next 10 years or so...
What if we swapped Hendricks (and his team-friendly contract) for Davies? Could we get both Baty and Mauricio?
No, and no.
But they are still the likeliest Bryant destination IMO.
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07/06/21 Chicago Cubs activated RHP Trevor Williams.
07/06/21 Chicago Cubs placed 2B Eric Sogard on the 10-day injured list. Left thumb contusion.
07/06/21 Chicago Cubs placed RHP Kohl Stewart on the 10-day injured list. Right elbow inflammation.
07/06/21 Chicago Cubs recalled SS Sergio Alcantara from Iowa Cubs.
. Okay, now we'll kick some a$$!
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07/06/21 Chicago Cubs activated RHP Trevor Williams.
07/06/21 Chicago Cubs placed 2B Eric Sogard on the 10-day injured list. Left thumb contusion.
07/06/21 Chicago Cubs placed RHP Kohl Stewart on the 10-day injured list. Right elbow inflammation.
07/06/21 Chicago Cubs recalled SS Sergio Alcantara from Iowa Cubs.
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To make a good and fair baseball trade, you have to be in a position to walk away if you don’t like the terms. (Actually, that’s true of any kind of potential deal in any field of endeavor).
Very doubtful that Hoyer was in a position to walk away in the Darvish deal. There can be little doubt that Ricketts wanted a certain payroll number. On top of that, most other clubs were not in a position to add payroll at the time of the Darvish trade, so Hoyer had zero or hardly anybody else to make a deal with re. Darvish. I’m guessing that Hoyer liked the players he got but there should have been another top prospect in that deal, a top 10 guy in Padres system, in addition to what Hoyer got. But, because Hoyer wasn’t in a position to walk away, he had to take what he got. Sure, he could have moved Bryant instead of Darvish for even a lesser return, but somebody big had to be moved—-in a bad market.
A very poor negotiating position to be in, especially with a limited market at the time. So, wouldn’t blame Hoyer.
By the way, Preciado and Cassie seem to be doing very well, so who knows….
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I think that's what Darvish was worth and some Cub fans have a hard time accepting that.
That's silly. He was Cy Young runner up last year (arguably should've won), and he's a top 10 pitcher again this year. Ace pitchers typically get far more than a few 18 year olds who have yet to play their first professional game.
After witnessing what Hoyer did with Darvish, I have no hopes for what he gets for anybody.
I still wonder if we can blame the return completely on Hoyer. Based on the timing of the trade (a couple days before the end of the year), I think it's possible that the Ricketts family told him his payroll had to be under a certain number by December 31 and this was the only way to make it happen at that point in the offseason while still getting something back.
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I think that's what Darvish was worth and some Cub fans have a hard time accepting that.
Its called pricing something to sell.
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After witnessing what Hoyer did with Darvish, I have no hopes for what he gets for anybody.
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No way they take an overperforming SP, and a broken 3b, for their top prospect.
This isnt the same Mets ownership as before, i doubt Cohen is willing to give up those prospects unless he has a trade and sign chance like he did with Lindor.
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I think the Mets are an intriguing trade partner.
They have obvious needs at 3B and SP, and could probably use some OF depth as well...for when Nimmo goes back on the DL.
If we offered a package of Bryant, Davies, Marisnick...would that be enough to get a Baty or a Mauricio (or both) in return? Mauricio in particular is blocked for the next 10 years or so...
What if we swapped Hendricks (and his team-friendly contract) for Davies? Could we get both Baty and Mauricio?
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He wasn't a catcher when we had him as a prospect.
Chirinos was a catcher in Cubs system by high-A ball. Was a catcher at Daytona, Tennessee, and Iowa.
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He wasn't a catcher when we had him as a prospect.
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I hadn't even noticed that Gushue got into a game (and with the ugly number 57 on his back). I had also thought that Chirinos began his career with the Cubs, at least for part of a season, but now see that he never reached the bigs with us.
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Former Smokie.
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He hit .278/.422/.556 in 45 PA in AAA for the Yankees this year, so maybe there is something left in the tank.
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The #Cubs today signed catcher Robinson Chirinos to a one-year major league contract.
Catcher Taylor Gushue has been designated for assignment.
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The end is near for our Cubs as we currently know them.
Im not a fan of any player. Im a fan of a team but I have a hard time understanding letting the 3 impending free agents go.
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The #Cubs today activated INF Nico Hoerner from the 10-day IL and optioned INF Sergio Alcántara to
@IowaCubs
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Jesse Rogers
@JesseRogersESPN
· 58m
The Cubs are just the 3rd team in the Live Ball era (Since 1920) to go 20 consecutive games with 8 or fewer hits (had 7 today). 1972 Mets went 20. Only the 1968 Yankees had a longer streak, 22 games.
The Mets were the Mets. 1968 was the year of the pitcher causing the mound to be lowered.
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Jesse Rogers
@JesseRogersESPN
· 58m
The Cubs are just the 3rd team in the Live Ball era (Since 1920) to go 20 consecutive games with 8 or fewer hits (had 7 today). 1972 Mets went 20. Only the 1968 Yankees had a longer streak, 22 games.
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Nico Hoerner was with the club in Cincinnati Saturday and will likely be activated on Sunday. Who goes away? I'm guessing it won't be a pitcher. Jason Heyward was pinch hit for by Jake Marisnick late in the game. Does he have one of those 'phantom" injuries?
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I'm thinking it would take one heck of a winning streak over the next three weeks to keep the Cubs from being in a sell mode.
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So let's trade for Pujols...
I think the real moral is to sign Mays.
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Can't hit, can't score, can't win.
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Graphic posted on broadcast today.
Cubs have 8 or fewer hits in each of their last 19 games.
Longest such streak by ANY TEAM since 1972.
Wow.
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Bryant slash line in June.
.114 .205 .241
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So let's trade for Pujols...
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'73 Mets went to the World Series...in May '72 they traded for Willie Mays...
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I guess Jesse Rogers has become Jon Greenberg's straight man.
Jesse Rogers
@JesseRogersESPN
The Cubs lost 2-1, now 7.5 games out of first place after their 7th consecutive loss.
Per @ESPNStatsInfo: The Cubs have had 8 or fewer hits in 19 consecutive games, the longest such streak by any team since the 1972 Mets did so in 20 straight.
jon greenberg
@jon_greenberg
Did the ‘72 Mets add at the deadline?
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E5UPB7xWEAQ1OI9?format=jpg&name=900x900)
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07/02/21 Chicago Cubs recalled RHP Kohl Stewart from Iowa Cubs.
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Nance optioned to Iowa today. Corresponding move to follow.
As BN put it re. Nance initial spin rates:
“the story on Nance has become very clear: before he gave up his first run in that disconcerting appearance against the Mets in New York a few weeks ago, Nance featured elite spin rates, crazy movement, late life, and looked unhittable. Since then, which corresponded with the league announcing that sticky stuff checks were coming, and corresponded with significant drops in his spin rate, Nance has 10.0 innings, allowing 12 ER on 11 hits (3 homers), 4 walks, 2 hit batters, and 4 wild pitches. His strikeout rate went from 31.7% to just 21.3%.”
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Sure looks like we will likely be sellers at the deadline, which is rather disappointing.
I'll ALWAYS feel grateful to Theo/Jed/Jason for accomplishing the Holy Grail of sports for our Cubs (and us)!
However, in hindsight and at this moment, we still don't seem much closer to fixing at least two MAJOR problems since Theo/Jed took over:
1. Lack of development of starting pitchers - doesn't seem like we have much SP talent in the minors (which has REALLY hurt us the last decade)!
2. Lack of success of Cub Hitting Coaches - we've been through a revolving door of guys, but none stick! Watching Schwarber make some adjustments with the Nats hitting coach - and, then, REALLY take off - has just poured salt on that wound for me!
Who knows what went into trading Darvish, but the Yu and Schwarber moves sure don't look very favorable for Jed about now! It's always seemed Theo is a unicorn and Jed was as Robin to Batman. Jed is experienced and seems like a solid, smart guy, who deserves time, but...
Maybe the Cubs will, somehow, go on another run and get back in the NLC race this month, but that doesn't seem likely.
It will be sad watching us part with some of our core guys who've been so integral to unprecedented Cub success. However, at this point, FWIW, the option of trying to hang in there while trading even potentially promising minor league guys for mediocre starting pitching doesn't seem like a very good alternative to me.
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If the Cubs want to pick up a veteran pitcher that they have always loved, and who's still in his lower 30's, there's always their much-respected Jose Quintana. With his 6.85 ERA and 1.9 WHIP, Maddon has finally shifted him to the bullpen. Guessing the GM wouldn't mind moving what's left of his $8M salary, so you wouldn't have to give any prospect to pick up his salary.
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I hope one day we can look back on this year and say, "Damn I am glad we cashed in on all those potential FA's we traded."
Just think if we had given Schwarber one more year and the haul he would get right now... But then again, with the tear he is on we might still be in first place.
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I remember several on this board counting the days until Soriano’s long term deal ended. As disappointing as he was, he was still much more of an offensive threat than Heyward has been.
Though to be fair, a butcher pretty much everywhere defensively. Heyward is at least a GG caliber RF and seems like a very decent clubhouse guy (as was Soriano, as I recall).
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I remember several on this board counting the days until Soriano’s long term deal ended. As disappointing as he was, he was still much more of an offensive threat than Heyward has been.
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Milton Bradley?
Todd Hundley?
Jeff Blauser?
Way back 30 years ago, I recall Danny Jackson. And Dave Smith.
Mel Rojas.
Those were very short-commitment dollar-modest guys compared to Heyward. Such a long-term commitment.
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In those cases, the damage was smaller, and for a much shorter duration. Heyward's signing is the gift that keeps on taking.
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Milton Bradley?
Todd Hundley?
Jeff Blauser?
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I started watching the Cubs something like 26 years ago and Jason Heyward has been the worst free agent signing Ive personally experienced.
I bet the board will have some other contenders over that time. But Heyward is near the top of my list for disappointing, that’s for sure. I remember being so excited when we “won” that sweepstakes.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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I started watching the Cubs something like 26 years ago and Jason Heyward has been the worst free agent signing Ive personally experienced.
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I was listening to Kaplan's podcast last week and they mentioned something about the Cubs watching Hamels pitch. Can he be any worse then Jake?
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I think if you can get Bryant and Rizzo healthy Bryant could go to RF and move Heyward to the bench and keep Wisdom at third until Duffy can return. I just want Sogard gone when Nico comes back.
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I know the major league squad is pretty beat up right now, but when do the Cubs bite the bullet on Heyward's contract and bench/dfa/whatever him? He's been soooo bad this year, and the underlying numbers are *not* good.
His line drive rate has plummeted to almost a career low. His GB rate is up near career highs. His infield fly ball rate is career high and *terrible*. Soft contact rate almost at career high. Hard contact rate almost at career low. Pull rate career high, which is not good when combined with his poor contact as evidenced by all of the previous data points. He's basically pulling weak grounders into the shift non-stop. Defense, while very dependable, doing very little to float his overall game.
Wisdom has a good arm - could he play RF? Obviously the K-rate is a huge concern there, but I'd rather see if he can figure it out with enough playing time.
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Loboaton is going to the 60 day DL. Cubs are calling up someone called Taylor Gushue to be the 5th backup catcher this year.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/taylor-gushue/sa827360/stats?position=C
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Cubs offense with Duff/Hoerner
.262/.339/.423, wOBA .330, wRC+ 110, 6.1 fWAR (#2 in MLB)
Cubs offense preDuffy/Hoerner
.189/.286/.366, wOBA .288, wRC+ 82, 0.9 fWAR (#22 in MLB)
Cubs offense postDuffy/Hoerner
.199/.274/.385, wOBA .288 wRC+ 82, 1.6 fWAR (#28 in MLB)
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Rays also got Shane Baz in that trade... who is currently doing really well in AAA.
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Jordan Bastian
Cubs moves…
• RHP Ryan Tepera to 10-day IL (left calf strain)
• RHP Trevor Megill optioned to Iowa
• RHP Tommy Nance (recalled), LHP Adam Morgan (selected) up from AAA
• INF Matt Duffy moved to 60-day IL
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The Rays trading Archer for Glasnow/Meadows
White Sox Quintana for Jimenez/Cease
Brewers getting Hader
Those are really about the only team altering trades at the deadline going back to 2014.
2019 the prospect that has turned into something is Josh Rojas, who was like the 5th piece in the Greinke trade. People expecting the Cubs to get much more than some teenage lottery tickets are going to be really disappointed at the deadline.
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Kimbrel should bring back a nice return considering his extra year of control. Who Hoyer gets for him and Bryant are crucial. Hendricks and Chafin and Baez should be gone as well.
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If the traded player agrees to an extension, they will.
Okay, give me a list of traded deadline guys who signed an extension before hitting free agency. Say, in last 10 years?
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Yeah, getting Chapman locked up really helped us with those repeat WS championships.
Yeah, thanks to the Chapman deal, you had to settle for winning the World Series first time in 108 years.
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Also much tougher—five years later—to get premier prospects these days.
See Yu Darvish.
Ouch.
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Gleyber was #27 BA prospect in July 2016.
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Gleyber Torres?
Torres was only about #20 in baseball, can't call it a "top" prospect unless the guy is #1 overall.
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If the traded player agrees to an extension, they will.
Yeah, getting Chapman locked up really helped us with those repeat WS championships.
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Nobody offers the top prospect in baseball for a 2-month rental.
That is a Pie-in-the-sky hypothetical. Sorry.
Of course, Tatis Jr. was already traded once but that was when he was a Reggie Preciado-type prospect at the time. Maybe Hoyer has already pulled that off.
If the traded player agrees to an extension, they will.
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Gleyber Torres?
Ouch.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Nobody offers the top prospect in baseball for a 2-month rental.
That is a Pie-in-the-sky hypothetical. Sorry.
Of course, Tatis Jr. was already traded once but that was when he was a Reggie Preciado-type prospect at the time. Maybe Hoyer has already pulled that off.
Gleyber Torres?
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Nobody offers the top prospect in baseball for a 2-month rental.
That is a Pie-in-the-sky hypothetical. Sorry.
Of course, Tatis Jr. was already traded once but that was when he was a Reggie Preciado-type prospect at the time. Maybe Hoyer has already pulled that off.
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I suspect that the decision by Hoyer over whether to trade or not to trade at the deadline may not depend so much on where the Cubs are in the standings or whether he thinks that our FA's will sign, but on what the other team is offering. If the other team is offering prospects the level of Franco, Tatis, or Trout, I think you have to weigh what some are saying here about the realistic chances of the team being able to compete at that level, considering what Reb has said that anything can happen once in the playoffs, etc, etc. Conclusion: I'm glad I'm not Hoyer, and I'm glad Davep and Reb aren't either.,
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#Cubs roster moves today: RHP Tommy Nance optioned to Triple-A. RHP Trevor Megill recalled from Triple-A.
Nance 44 pitches on Sunday (and pitched Friday). Probably unavailable for at least next two games.
This is baseball in 2021. Give the club needed innings and get your ticket punched back to AAA.
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This series is critical. A sweep by Brewers and now 6 games back? No, that’s bad. We have to win this series.
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Taylor McGregor
#Cubs roster moves today: RHP Tommy Nance optioned to Triple-A. RHP Trevor Megill recalled from Triple-A.
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From May 15 to June 12—almost a month—Cubs were practically an offensive juggernaut. Cubs need to do that kind of thing to be a force. That’s a long stretch and maybe the club can get back to that for a sustained period. Cubs have the bats to do that but more guys have to be in a groove compared to the lesser versions of themselves. That’s the mystery of baseball. Which version of a guy with a track record shows up?
Cubs rotation is different. Not much of an upside. That’s why think offense needs to carry the club…and get us to the bullpen. Could even see adding to the bullpen at the trade deadline to make it even better if somebody falters between now and then.
Brewers have a major advantage on Cubs with their rotation. Cubs need to make that up on offense.
If Cubs still in the race at trade deadline, figure they’ll try to add a SP, but skeptical they can add anybody much better than what’s on hand. Maybe a depth guy. Sometimes, can get lucky with a guy like that and turns out better than expected.
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The Cubs will have to play much better baseball than they have recently if they are going to be a serious team to content with in September and beyond.
The Cubs are a flawed team, they aren't going to be serious contenders for beyond unless they make a serious upgrade to the rotation.
The offense will get better when Nico and hopefully Duffy return. It will given them more balance. The bullpen is fine. The rotation outside of Hendricks and Davies is a mess. Alzolay needs to get better against lefties, Jake is inconsistent, and Willilams/Mills is meh.
The Cubs are 12-13 in June against teams that are 39 games above .500. The Cubs could win playoff series or they could be out in the first round, but this team should be the favorite for the division. The Brewers went 15-9 against teams are 61 games under .500.
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The Cubs chances of making the playoffs have decreased from 30-60% about a week ago to 23-44% now (lowest and highest of FansGraph, Baseball Reference, and 538.com).
Above what threshold should the Cubs be buyers? Below which should they be sellers?
Obviously, it depends on whether you make the playoffs as wildcard or division winner. Given the latter is much more likely (The Cubs chance of a wild card is 2-10% depending on source). Perhaps 40% for buyers and 20% for sellers?
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The Cubs will have to play much better baseball than they have recently if they are going to be a serious team to content with in September and beyond.
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Cubs now 3 back in division, and 4 and 5 back behind San Diego and Dodgers for wildcard. Losing the Dodgers series is tough, because beating them out for Wildcard is one of the pathways for reaching the playoffs.
The Cubs in June played the Padres, Giants, Padres, Cardinals, Mets, Miami, Cleveland Dodgers. (248-209, .543)
The Brewers in June played the Detroit, Arizona, Reds, Pirates, Reds, Colorado, Arizona, Colorado (125-186, .401)
The Cubs will be the first above .500 team the Brewers have played since they played 4 games against the Padres May 24-27 and the third since on Dodgers April 29-May 2. The fact that the Cubs are only 3 games behind is kinda staggering. I thought it would worse. After the Brewers series the Cubs don't play a well above .500 until White Sox in August.
The Cubs have 6 against the White Sox, 7 against the Phillies, 3 against the Nationals, 3 against the Giants. Those are the only games left against teams outside of the division that have a chance at .500 or better. The Cubs schedule gets a lot easier from here on out.
In case you are wondering the Brewers September/Oct schedule is Giants, Cardinals, Phillies, Indians, Tigers (2), Cubs, Cardinals, Mets, Cardinals, Dodgers.
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Thats why I wonder if we should give him 100 million.
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"Anthony Rizzo left today’s game with left low back tightness."
The tightness episodes seem to be happening with more frequency. At what point will something more serious be needed than a day or two of rest?
Put me down as very concerned.
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Cubs now 3 back in division, and 4 and 5 back behind San Diego and Dodgers for wildcard. Losing the Dodgers series is tough, because beating them out for Wildcard is one of the pathways for reaching the playoffs.