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General Category => Archives => Topic started by: Dave23 on July 17, 2022, 12:50:21 pm
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https://yalebulldogs.com/news/2022/8/3/baseball-kipp-signs-with-cubs.aspx
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Draft-siging deadline expired last night. All 1st and 2nd rounders ended up signing. Ferris was by far the highest-paid of the regular 2nd rounders. Only two others over $2, one at $2.0 and one at $2.35.
Only two 3rd-rounders got more then Paciolla.
Brock Porter's $3.7 4th round deal blew both Ferris's and Mule's deals out of the water, but no other 4th rounders got more than Mule.
As deeg noted, whatever you think of the strategy, it appears they executed and were able to get some guys they really liked. Time will tell whether the guys they liked can develop and will be worth liking!
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Thanks for the update, Reb. Though expected, it's still welcome news about Ferris!
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Meghan Montemurro
@M_Montemurro
Cubs announce they signed 19 of 20 draft picks including 2nd-rd pick LHP Jackson Ferris & 4th-rd pick RHP Nazier Mulé.
Lone unsigned pick is HS RHP Brock Blatter (19th rd).
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Wheat also signed, apparently.
There goes the 3 dollars. Two to go.
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Wheat also signed, apparently.
They plan to use that five dollars to sign Wheat and Blatter. Wheat, being the higher draft choice, will get 3 and Blatter 2.
Had to separate the wheat from the chaff on that one.
[groan]
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Wheat also signed, apparently.
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Ricketts is so cheap, why did he withhold a Lincoln?
Glad to see it all wrapped up. Hope the kid becomes our World Series ace.
Now you are just being silly. They plan to use that five dollars to sign Wheat and Blatter. Wheat, being the higher draft choice, will get 3 and Blatter 2.
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I believe that the Ferris bonus is the highest bonus paid to any drafted player after pick #23 in round 1, with the exception of the $3.7 bonus to Brock Porter by the Rangers in round 4.
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Ricketts is so cheap, why did he withhold a Lincoln?
Glad to see it all wrapped up. Hope the kid becomes our World Series ace.
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According to CCDT, the Ferris signing leaves the Cubs $5 under the max, with overage.
THAT’s FIVE DOLLARS.
As in, a Lincoln.
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Good news. Whatever you think of the strategy, at least they managed to execute it successfully.
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Callis:
2nd-rder Jackson Ferris signs with @Cubs for $3,005,000 (slot 47 value = $1,661,200). Florida HS LHP, 1st-rd talent, three potential plus pitches in riding 92-95 mph fastball, downer curveball & fading changeup. Mississippi recruit.
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Maybe the Cubs are waiting to announce the Ferris signing on the day they deal Contreras…to soften the blow…
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"Slot" is a great guide. A context for me is that only half of first rounders actually get slot. Picks 20-30, half got slot, half were sub-slot. Picks 10-20, 4 were slot, 5 were sub-slot, Pareda will presumably get the slot guys up to 50%. Picks 1-10, 4 got slot.
No great insight there, just something that I observed. Just the context that when a guy gets paid like slot-24 (Ferris) or slot-13 (Horton), there may not be 23 or 12 guys getting paid more. Both Ferris's slot and his pay will put him in the top 20-25.
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$3M is just about slot for overall pick #24 this draft.
So, definitely first round money.
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Horton and his selection has obviously dominated draft discussions for good reason. But the riskier $3M Ferris pick, that's a really significant risky and expensive guy.
Johnson and Pareda will have substantial deals coming, but at present only 18 guys have gotten ≥$3M deals. So Ferris will be one of only 21 guys that get to $3M. He's getting valued and paid like a solid first-rounder; I think the expectations/hopes should be commensurate with that. Bryant got a huge deal. Horton, HOward (3.7), and Almora (3.9) got deals larger than Ferris. And obviously it's dumb to ignore inflation.
But Ferris at $3.0 will be essentially on par with Happ (3.0), Schwarbs (3.1), and Wicks (3.1). And ahead of thriftier first rounders like Nico (2.7), Little (2.2), Jensen (2.0) and Lange (1.9).
Kantro obviously really values the guy and sees some big possibilities. We really are justified in viewing Ferris as a 1st round guy with first-round possibilities, and not as a late-round first either.
I admit some puzzlement as to the delay in his signing. The $3.0M slot has been defined for a while. What's the holdup? Who knows, and perhaps who cares. Maybe his grandfather has a big birhtday and family reunion? Maybe his mom and dad wanted to come along for the signing and this weekend is better? Maybe his sister got Covid so he didn't want to expose the plane? Probably nothing of any concern. I do admit, though, that the last time a first-rounder took a puzzlingly long time to sign, it was Alex Lange, who'd failed his physical. HOping it's nothing like that at issue with Ferris.
Tangent: When the twitter pictures of signings get shared, is that the player posting those, or the Cubs? Perhaps for all I know Ferris signed on Wednesday, but*if* the Cubs don't post them and Ferris doesn't happen to be an Instagram guy or Twitter guy or whatever, maybe he's just not told the world even thought it's already happened?
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Jackson Ferris is one of nine unsigned players drafted in first two rounds.
Callis says all expected to sign by the Monday deadline.
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Just trying to keep my poor dog from ruining carpet.
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Did you switch professions?
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Too many topics with 2022 and having to keep an eye on a dog with diarrhea.
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CBJ struggling to keep reality and fantasy.
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Planning to draft his kid?
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Picking up Joey Votto, Bryan Reynolds to paternity list.
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https://twitter.com/JonathanMayo/status/1552742137208389632?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1552742137208389632%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwitter.min.html1552742137208389632
Mule $1.0 as expected.
Leaves $3.005 as max possible for Ferris
Reb, you are fast! Way to go.
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Mule’s bonus is $1 M even.
That leaves a few dollars over $3 for Ferris.
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Bonus for 13th rounder HS pitcher Luis Rujano was $210,000——$85,000 overslot.
So, that leaves just over $4 M for Ferris and Mule and any other overslots.
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4th rounder Nazier Mule has signed.
CCDT has a link to his Instagram page with photo of the signing.
No bonus $ out yet.
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reb, a couple of thoughts.
"Recency bias" is pejorative, but I'm a cautious supporter! Especially for young pitchers whose capacities are changing. If a guy has learned new skills, it makes best sense to evaluate him as he is now, with those skills, rather than evaluate him as the pre-skill guy. Horton got faster; his command got better; he developed the slider. He flashed pitches in June that trackman captured, that were not there in March.
"Recency bias" is more appropriate for young pitchers than for hitters or vets. Young pitchers really do learn new grips and new pitches that make them better, sustainably so. And show up with sustainably increased velocity. Their skills and capacities can change significantly. Hitters can't "learn to hit" the way a pitcher can "learn a new grip", so "adding a skill" isn't really a thing for hitters.
The small-sample is a legit hesitation and risk for sure; who knows how sustainable any of it will be? Horton didn't pitch until March 29, or start until April 14. His postseason (31IP) was barely smaller than the regular season 53IP.
I trust the thoroughness and logic of the Cubs analysis, and accept the associated risk. I'm sure they are well aware that there is no safety in either Horton or Ferris. You can have great process and logic and infrastructure and philosophy, but it comes down to individual players and health.
Twenty year ago I trusted the process and liked drafting Brownlie, Blasko, Luke Hagerty, Justin Jones, and Billy Petrick, too. Seemed like a great, high-ceiling haul that could hypothetically combine with Prior and Kerry Wood to set up a pitching dynasty! Opportunity unfulfilled.
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Even the $500,000 difference between Horton and Collier has a big effect on who the Cubs after Ferris.
Law thinks it is recency bias by going after Horton and just looking at postseason Kantrovitz, from interviews, believes that the trackman numbers provide a statistically significant sample.
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I think that it is far too oversimplified to consider only the first and second round picks when considering the Horton choice.
I think it is quite likely that the Cubs knew not only what Horton would sign for, but also what they could sign Lee or Collier for. So they were deciding what was the better value, Horton at 4.4 million or Lee at 5.7 million. If they felt that the future value of Lee was worth the 5.7, but the future value of Horton was 5.6 million, (not quite as high as Lee, but much higher than the actual cost), then they made the right choice, giving them an excess value of 1.1 million to spend later in the draft, whether it be Ferris or someone equivalent.
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Listened to Keith Law’s draft post-mortem podcast at The Athletic, an interesting listen that i’d recommend. Went up about 5 days ago before Horton bonus info went up.
Law has written that Cubs Horton pick was perhaps a “recency bias” pick, which he explains as a matter of draft philosophy that folks can reasonably disagree about. Think that perhaps he gives a bit of short shrift to Horton’s HS pedigree but most interesting thing is that he assumes Horton will sign for slot or near slot and, therefore, not really impacting other Cubs picks that much—although he mentions Ferris and Mule as upside potential guys.
After the Kantrovitz interviews and the Horton actual bonus number, all of it makes more sense compared to draft day.
Before the draft, I said hope that Cubs get the guy they really want but don’t outsmart themselves (Hayden Simpson still in the memory bank, I think). If it turns out that Horton’s last 5 starts were an illusion, maybe that description might fit. But, at this point, on board with Cubs draft philosophy and the massive emphasis on pitching upside.
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Lee signs for slightly over-slot with the #8 pick.
-He basically signs with the Twins for what our slot would have been, $5.7, versus the $4.45 Horton got. $1.2 difference.
-Collier signed for $5.0.
-Parada hasn't signed yet.
In my view, the Cubs did not pass on Collier for financial reasons. To make Collier work, the Cubs could have still taken Ferris; all they'd have needed to compromise was on 3rd-round projection Paciolla. No big deal. If Collier and Horton were equal, sure, price is fine as a tiebreaker. But *IF* the Cubs scouted Collier ahead of Horton, Paciolla and a little money would NOT have overridden taking the preferred prospect.
Lee, though, at $1.2 that equivalent argument does not hold. To take Lee would have either meant deferring on Ferris, or else pretty much seriously sub-slotting for every round after Ferris. So with Lee, I think it *IS* plausible that the Cubs might have preferred Lee, all things being equal; but preferred Horton + Ferris over Lee. We'll never know, of course; perhaps they really had Lee and Horton at equivalent value, so it was a no-brainer.
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Noland pitched great against both Stanford and Ole Miss in Omaha.
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So, turns out that only super-cheap senior sign was 7th rounder Nick Hull at $25,000.
Yeah, that's kinda cool. Obviously guys coming in at $125 or $200, that's not big dollars or anything. But those are guys who might have a chance if they develop well. Even in the 3rd day guys, #20 is still getting $100, and #18 at $80 is the only 3rd day guy below $100, for those with numbers listed.
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Thanks for numbers, reb.
With the above signings, think that leaves just under $4.1M (including 5% overage) to sign Ferris and Mule and any “above-sloters” at rounds11-20/undrafted.
Sounds about right for $3 for Ferris and $1 for Mule. And ~$0.1 for whichever 3rd day guy will take it (or already has).
I don't think we got a report on Rujano, right? He might have been a guy who might have been worth overslot? I assume not, though. In which case saving an extra $100K for whichever between Wheat and Blatter might take it would be the approach Kantro used last year.
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So, turns out that only super-cheap senior sign was 7th rounder Nick Hull at $25,000.
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With the above signings, think that leaves just under $4.1M (including 5% overage) to sign Ferris and Mule and any “above-sloters” at rounds11-20/undrafted.
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BA:
8th rounder McGwire signs at $200,000 ($189,100 slot)
10th rounder McCullough sign at $125,000 ($154,300 slot)
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3rd rounder Paciolla signs for $900,00 ($735,500 slot)
6th rounder Frisch at $228,000 ($303,900 slot)
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Not saying he's going to be Keegan Thompson, but that reads a lot like his draft profile when the Cubs took him.
-Maybe they see a mechanical tweak that will unlock velocity
-Maybe they'll do the weighted balls with him
-They have sports performance guys, maybe there is something with body that can be developed.
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Yeah, Ron, I love it, for exactly those reasons. I'd assumed a 23-year-old was drafted for signability reasons, not because he was valued very highly as a prospect. Not so much that they paid $200 vs $165, but that they payd $200 vs $25 or $5 or something. Last year two of their signability guys signed for $1K (the biochemist) and $5K (Peter Mott, pick #10), and this year the guy selected two rounds ahead of Noland signed for $25K. That's the kind of scenario that I assumed for Noland.
The fact that they valued him for $200K bonus demonstrates that their scouting sees real-prospect possibilities for him. So I love it, it's like getting a real prospect when I wasn't expecting that, I love it.
Tangent thoughts: He's 23, so even if he still did have another year of eligibility, had he gone back and then re-entered the draft again next summer, he'd have been turning 24 by the time he signed. So I'd not have thought his leverage was very good. For the Cubs to have gone overslot, for a 23-year-old with limited leverage, yeah, it would appear the Cubs see value worth the bonus. Very cool.
I wonder with Callis's listed "88-91mph fastball". Perhaps the Cubs scouted that somewhat faster? Or saw enough inconsistency that they see there is more velocity sometimes, and they figure that with pitch lab the faster ones might become the norm rather than the exception? Will be interesting to track how he develops.
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Noland could have gone back to Arkansas, and I guess the Cubs wanted him badly enough that they were willing to pay him $35,400 extra to keep him from doing that. They apparently saw enough in him to draft him way ahead of how he had been rated by others before the draft. And I guess they had enough money to do that without jeopardizing their ability to sign any other draftees? Interesting if we'll see any explanation of the pick from Kantrovitz.
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That is really bizarre. Noland is 23 years old. I sure didn't expect that. Very crazy.
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They paid overslot for a 9th round pick. Quite unusual.
Does that leave just Ferris unsigned out of the first 10?
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Callis:
9th-rder Connor Noland signs with @Cubs for $200k (slot 263 = $164,600). @RazorbackBSB LHP, uses 88-91 mph fastball to set up solid curveball & slider, also played QB for Arkansas at beginning of college career. @MLBDraft
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Not until they become wives.
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Ball players shouldn't be allowed to have girlfriends. They are always causing trouble.
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Dave, a different source stated that 8 of the first 10 have signed, but listed Noland, Paciolla, and Frisch as having all signed, with Mule and Ferris being the only ones unsigned. Operationally, significant overslots are usually done last, after the senior slots have been formalized to ensure they have the money. Remotely unlikely, of course, but you don't want to sign Ferris if you're depending on Noland's senior-sign money to make Ferris fit, but Ferris gets killed in a car accident or his girlfriend talks him out of signing or whatever.
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Only three of the first ten Cubs picks are unsigned, Paciolla, Frisch and Noland. I suspect we will leave either Paciolla or Frisch (or perhaps both) unsigned until Noland is signed, so they know exactly how much money is available. It would be nice if they were able to sign all three and still have enough money left over for Rujana and Blatter. I am assuming (for no logical reason whatsoever) that Noriega will sign for slot or less.
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Here is the link
https://northsidebound.com/2022/07/23/cade-is-a-bad-man-a-behind-the-scenes-breakdown-of-how-the-cubs-landed-cade-horton/
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He also rescheduled Nichols pre-draft presentation to when Hoyer was going to be there, because Hoyer had to leave early the day it was supposed to happen.
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More.
Dan Kantrovitz: You see this hellacious slider that he’s started to break out. We’ve [all] read about how he picked that up and incorporated so quickly. There was an electric heater and a developing feel for a change of pace pitch that moves away from lefties…At that point, after some prodding from Ty, I’m thinking time is running out and we need to prioritize getting a few more of us back into see him in person. So we’re like four or five days into the combine. It’s a pretty long, drawn-out affair. Ty is in my ear and we’ve all got these images of Cade’s nasty breaking ball just buckling knees. So I left that (the MLB Draft Combine) maybe two days early and still remember getting a text from one of our scouts from the Combine [saying] “Where did you go?”. And I texted back and just said “Omaha”. He gave me a wink response realizing it was for Cade. At that point, Cade had potentially two starts left (Notre Dame and Ole Miss). Thinking back to those 2 Starts and re-watching them kindof gives you goosebumps…I mean with good hitters walking back to the dugout having looks on their face like “what the hell just happened?. What did I just see?” At that point, putting everything together, we didnt have a scout that thought he shouldnt be in the mix at 7. I mean, he had been on the peripherary most of the spring so it wasnt like this huge leap but it was clear we had to sit down with Jed and Carter and continue to really flush this one out
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From Northside Bound interview.
Dan Kantrovitz: Now that the ink is dry, I can be probably a little more open about it than I was able to do prior to the official signing. Backing up to probably March when he made his first outing this year on the mound, I got a text from Ty Nichols, our Area Scout. He had seen [Horton] and he said “Hey DK, Cade is a bad man”. I’ll never forget that because we’d been talking about Cade for a while, really ever since we’d been at his house in high school. Just following him since, we were pretty excited to see him get out on the mound. It was highly anticipated on our end. Though, I’m thinking to myself, “Okay, well, let’s just take a step back here. It’s one short outing”. Though I will say we also had some scouts run in there after Ty and the reports basically echoed what Ty was saying [that there] was just there’s something special here and he’s just shaking off some rust. I wouldnt guess that was too far from what the industry was probably thinking either. I mean, if this guy goes back to school, he ends up probably being in the top five or 10 on the 2023 draft board from a publication standpoint. So I think there was a bit more buzz in the industry than maybe out of it but in any case, we did still have some questions at that point. I kept in mind [Cubs 2021 first round pick] Jordan Wicks and a few others who Ty recommended…he just has a really keen eye for pitching. We’d been studying every outing up to that point so there had been a lot of conversations about him – but publicly the narrative started to change when he began consistently dominating really good hitting teams..it was like Texas, Florida, VA Tech. He just mowed those teams down…I remember thinking “holy [crap]”, his stuff is just getting better and better…and its still not where we think it’ll end up.
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Cubs Live! is doing a live draft recap show right now on Marquee. Carter Hawkins is getting ready to speak for a bit.
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Blue, I think that's kind of contextual. I think both that comment and that reality are more for 3rd day back-of-system take-a-shot picks. I don't think thats a factor for the dollar picks taken prior to senior-signs and 3rd-day guys.
I think it probably came into play after the first 2 picks. It was mentioned that anybody the drafted would have to be better than what was already in the minors to get playing time.
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"Cubs have signed 8 of their 1st 10 picks from the ‘22 draft so far, including 1st round pick Cade Horton. Jackson Ferris (2nd) and Nazier Mulé (4th) are the 2 who have yet to sign."
https://twitter.com/ryan_a_herrera/status/1550910513760067586?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1550910513760067586%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwitter.min.html1550910513760067586
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....
There is a Creighton analytics account that released some of data on Horton’s fastball and slider from the CWS.
Horton had one fastball at 96 with 16 inches vertical and 3 inches of horizontal another at 97 with 21 inches of vertical and 0 horizontal (which is an amazing pitch). So assuming the arm slot is correct it seems to be the fastball that the Cubs want. I saw another article where the Cubs have a change up in mind for him.
The Cubs seem to be going after this because it is rarer and scouts analytic people grade the fastball out worse than what it actually is.
Fascinating. Those are some striking numbers. I'm guessing that it's "a" fastball that they view as promising; perhaps not as "the" fastball that they like for everybody. I imagine they can recognize a variety of different fastballs that can perhaps work well in different ways. But yeah, I'd think *if* they saw some really special fastballs, they probably figure he's got the capacity; and they can figure out how he does it when he does that, and make it possible to do routinely and at situational will.
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Cubs went so pitching heavy as well because the didn’t have a lot of positional openings in the minors and they have more innings available. Cost of losing 2 short season teams.
Blue, I think that's kind of contextual. I think both that comment and that reality are more for 3rd day back-of-system take-a-shot picks. I don't think thats a factor for the dollar picks taken prior to senior-signs and 3rd-day guys.
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I wonder how tweakable fastball stuff is.
I think that in context of new draftees. College guys Horton and Birdsell (both of whom have signed), both throw pretty fast, but without necessarily have fastballs that are all that good. How much can that be tweaked?
From Sharma on Horton: "while the fastball is a 70 pitch according to scouts on velocity alone, it plays more average. .... The heater for Horton is an area the Cubs will focus on, along with likely adding a pitch that can move arm-side to counter his sweeping slider. The current belief is it could be a power changeup..."
At least one of the Horton scouting reports seemed kinda similar, his fastball is fast, but it wasn't especially hard to hit.
I get testing different grips for breaking balls. If Horton is 70-velocity fastball, but it plays average, and it's an area the Cubs will focus on, I wonder what you do to tweak that. I can't imagine it would be arm slot or stride length or whatever. I'd imagine it has to be something more nuanced in the grip and release, I guess, if possible. Or, perhaps it's less a matter of changing it, but more a matter of locking into the best version? I imagine a guy who's only thrown 50 innings, that he's not been throwing the exact same ball every time. So maybe 20% he throws ones that have excellent metrics; but 40% of OK, and 40% are lousy. The composite might come across as "average". But maybe the goal is to identify what makes the excellent ones excellent, and figure out how to do that all the time, or maybe at least 70% of the time, rather than only 20%?
I imagine some of the same will go with Birdsell.
I think D+D look for guys who can throw really good pitches sometimes, and figure it's development's job to make that the norm. The flip is that a lot of mediocre pitchers throw a lot of terrific pitches. But a lot of the damage comes on the mistakes. So success is impacted largely by how good the good ones actually are, but also the frequency-rate of less-than-good ones.
Read a little bit more about it. What the Cubs are targeting is something called a cut/ride fastball. Basically it is a 4 seam pitch that is thrown from an arm slot that will give the appearance that it will cut, but it doesn’t instead the fastball has ride (doesn’t fall as much). A four seam fastball has about 7.5 inches of horizontal break, a cut/ride fastball will have less than 3 inches of horizontal movement. It will also have great than 16 inches of induced vertical break.
So it will be a fastball that when you look at the numbers will have the appearance of being straight and easy to hit, but because of the arm slot will end up in the wrong spot where the hitter is expecting it. Examples of Cubs with this type of fastball are Steele, Strowman, Killian, Riley Martin and a few others.
There is a Creighton analytics account that released some of data on Horton’s fastball and slider from the CWS.
Horton had one fastball at 96 with 16 inches vertical and 3 inches of horizontal another at 97 with 21 inches of vertical and 0 horizontal (which is an amazing pitch). So assuming the arm slot is correct it seems to be the fastball that the Cubs want. I saw another article where the Cubs have a change up in mind for him.
The Cubs seem to be going after this because it is rarer and scouts analytic people grade the fastball out worse than what it actually is.
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Cubs went so pitching heavy as well because the didn’t have a lot of positional openings in the minors and they have more innings available. Cost of losing 2 short season teams.
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Maybe similar to Deeg, I was disappointed in real time to hear the name Horton instead of Brooks Lee on the draft broadcast.
But, what do I know about these guys? Or anybody else here? We have not much to work with as to any individual player. So, as I look at it, we just have to defer to the strategy of the front office folks with the information.
By the way, who knows if Brooks Lee would have been the pick in a one-round draft. We probably will never know who Cubs preferred over who. It might have been some guy mocked consistently way down, for all we know.
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deeg, I understand all three of: 1) disagreeing with the Cubs scouting eval. 2) Not wanting to ever "trade" down at all, but always to go with your totally top-rated remaining player, price regardless, and even if the separation is slim, and 3) preferring a safer hitter over a more injury-vulnerable pitcher. I also understand the preference for safer college over riskier HS.
I do think this largely comes down to the scouting eval, and the willingness to accept the risk that comes with a pitcher. I'm not sure any of Lee, Collier, or Pareda are going to get paid all that much more than the Cubs paid Horton.
I do admit that I'm kind of fired up about getting some rotation prospects who can throw hard. We've been working with a lot of soft-toss finesse guys for the last decade. Hendricks of course. Lester wasn't fast, especially after the World Series season.
Stroman doesn't throw very hard. Quintana had below-average velocity. Mills. Darvish had/has really good, above-average velocity, but he's kinda been the exception.
I think it might be fun to have a collection of good-velocity starters with high ceilings.
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Birdsell $385, $17 K below slot.
I'm figuring that Kantro has the savings to go $3/$1/$1 on Ferris, Paciolla, and Mule. If McGwire and Frisch sign for slot, he'd have ~100-200K left for 3rd-day overslots. I'm curious whether McGwire will get a little extra? And which between Paciolla and mule gets more?
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Craig, if he's been honest about him credit where it's due. I still don't agree with the strategy when you have the 7th pick and a guy like Lee is on the board but better that he admit the truth (tacitly).
That said, I still don't see Horton as being worth even the slot money he got, 10-13, and who knows but I doubt he would have gone that high. I'm not sure he would have gone much before Ferris.
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Going back to some earlier discussion, I think Kantro was pretty unambiguous in that Marquee interview. He was pretty unambiguous that he was considering the whole draft, not just a single player, and that eventually the draft will be judged by the class as a whole, not just by a single selection. I don't think he really could have been more transparent that "trading down" to improve subsequent picks was part of the analysis.
deeg, I think you faulted him as if he was being misleading or dishonest; and perhaps for my 12-year-old nephew, or for my wife, perhaps they are too naive to understand what he communicated. But I didn't perceive any dishonesty there. seemed as obvious and transparent and straightforward as you can get, for anybody who understands how the draft works.
I totally get the question, whether it's ever wise to "trade down" in a baseball draft. It's surely a risk in a high-stakes gamble, and if Horton, Ferris, Paciolla, and Mule all bust, while Lee, Pareda, or Collier both sign for more than $4.5 AND become high-value players, it may look pretty bad in retrospect. Time will tell.
I'll be interested to see how much more expensive those three guys are when they sign. I'd seen a rumor that Collier had a $5 deal with Cinci, but he hasn't sign that yet. But *IF* hypothetically he's $5, only $0.5 above Horton, that's not a monstrous difference. *IF* those guys end up signing for ≤$0.5 more than Horton, that kinda suggests to me that Kantro's scouting evaluation did NOT have the more expensive players as significantly more valuable on the BPA continuum. The Cubs may well have had those guys pretty much on the same scouting-plateau.
For the moment, I'm fine with the decision they made. I think it's kind of exciting, to be aggressive and shoot for a couple of first-round-talent pitchers. Heh heh, optimist that I am, sometimes one fluky-lucky or fluky-smart draft can transform a franchise. Heh heh, maybe six years from now, the Cubs will be premium contender, with Mule closing, Ferris and Horton as #1-#2 rotation starters, Birdsell a reliable setup guy, Paciolla emerging as an asset young starting 3B, and McGwire and Blatter having emerged as good trade-value guys at the Iowa options yo-yo. Shoot, maybe Haydn McGeary will be a solid, middle-of-the-order DH by then! And Shane Marshall will be another nice relief guy! Heh heh, everybody is going to hit their ceilings in this draft!
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$4,450,000 for Horton's deal.
1. That would be between the 12 and 13 slot values.
2. Frees $1.3.
3. Overall 5% overage was $0.5.
4. Those two combined provide $1.8 in discretionary overslot.
5. Hull came in at $25K, $222 under.
6. Assuming Noland and McCullough come in at ~25K each, that would free up ~$250 more.
7. So, I'm figuring they've got $2.2-2.3M to allocate for their overslot deals.
I'll be curious to see whether McGwire gets much if any of that. His slot is $189, I'd not be surprised to see him come in pretty much at slot, or maybe $200, $250, or $300, but probably not above that.
I'd kinda figure Kantro wanted to keep ~$200 for his 3rd-day picks? What and Blatter are pretty much the two remaining younger guys who might command overslot. But not sure whether or not Rujano may have already agreed to some overslot, or if he just agreed for the $125K standard.
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....
Method had a post about Steele’s fastball and how it isn’t giving up HR. The Cubs are targeting what is his fastball does and trying to teach it. I don’t fully understand it yet and am trying to read up on it. See when I don’t get something I try and learn about.
I wonder how tweakable fastball stuff is.
I think that in context of new draftees. College guys Horton and Birdsell (both of whom have signed), both throw pretty fast, but without necessarily have fastballs that are all that good. How much can that be tweaked?
From Sharma on Horton: "while the fastball is a 70 pitch according to scouts on velocity alone, it plays more average. .... The heater for Horton is an area the Cubs will focus on, along with likely adding a pitch that can move arm-side to counter his sweeping slider. The current belief is it could be a power changeup..."
At least one of the Horton scouting reports seemed kinda similar, his fastball is fast, but it wasn't especially hard to hit.
I get testing different grips for breaking balls. If Horton is 70-velocity fastball, but it plays average, and it's an area the Cubs will focus on, I wonder what you do to tweak that. I can't imagine it would be arm slot or stride length or whatever. I'd imagine it has to be something more nuanced in the grip and release, I guess, if possible. Or, perhaps it's less a matter of changing it, but more a matter of locking into the best version? I imagine a guy who's only thrown 50 innings, that he's not been throwing the exact same ball every time. So maybe 20% he throws ones that have excellent metrics; but 40% of OK, and 40% are lousy. The composite might come across as "average". But maybe the goal is to identify what makes the excellent ones excellent, and figure out how to do that all the time, or maybe at least 70% of the time, rather than only 20%?
I imagine some of the same will go with Birdsell.
I think D+D look for guys who can throw really good pitches sometimes, and figure it's development's job to make that the norm. The flip is that a lot of mediocre pitchers throw a lot of terrific pitches. But a lot of the damage comes on the mistakes. So success is impacted largely by how good the good ones actually are, but also the frequency-rate of less-than-good ones.
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Law mentioned he was shut down at some point this year in the podcast and I got the impression that he was throwing at the draft combine. Anybody throwing 100 in their teen years is at high risk for TJS.
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Yes, I got the same thing from the interview about condition of Mule’s arm.
Guessing that’s a preview of something we’ll hear to come.
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Speaking of injuries...
In Kantro's Marquee interview, something in his wording gave me the impression that he was not confident regarding Mule arm-health-wise.
He was clear that focusing on pitching first was their perspective. But being so young and athletic, that it was too soon to know what he'd end up being good at. But there was also something to the effect that they hadn't had him in for a physical yet.
It gave me the impression that they did NOT already have arm-eval information info that had already reassured them that Mule's sore-arm was a non-issue. I kind of inferred that *IF* Mule hypothetically needs surgery, that Kantro would be neither shocked nor regretful of having drafted Mule.
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I agree. Cease was drafted around that level because of his surgery, and certainly was worth the wait. Unfortunately, it wasn't the Cubs who waited.
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Thanks, Blue. frish as a possible round 2-3 talent, I'd say that's fine with waiting a bit, if you're getting that for slot in the 6th round.
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https://theathletic.com/3437936/2022/07/21/mlb-draft-report-card-national-league/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
Keith Law article, collects his notes on the Cubs picks. He has some mechanical faults with Ferris and Birdsell, plus of course Horton as a 2-pitch guy. This kind of encourages the idea that *if* the Cubs pitch-lab development process actually works, think what guys might become with some optimization. If Birdsell is throwing 94-96 and touches 98 with a lousy delivery that doesn't use his lower half, what might he become *if* he optimizes his delivery and is better able to use his legs? *IF* Ferris has some delivery flaws, imagine if the delivery gets optimized so that his control can be more consistent? If Horton can dominate the College World series with his two pitches, imagine how interesting he might become as he develops 3rd and maybe 4th besides?
Seems like some fun projects for Breslow to try to optimize.
I kind of assume they communicate quite a bit with players to see how willing they are to modify what they do. I recall back in Fleita days, they were kinda hesitant to mess with guys, at least not until they'd had some problems and were looking for solutions. I expect modern pitchers are much more eager to experiment, and with pitch lab to have better opportunity to quantify what might work and might help. But I suspect they've already talked to guys and have some sense of their willingness and openness to change.
Law was on the Athletic baseball podcast and talked a little bit more about the Cubs draft. His issue with Horton is the lack of dominance over an extended period of time. He chalked it up more of a philosophical difference. When he mentioned the high upside arms the Cubs took he mentioned Ferris, Mule and Frisch. He said without the injury Frisch might have been a top 2 round talent.
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Even with Carraway, I believe that the WTF was due to the fact that he was projected to be a releiver rather than the question of whether his command could be fixed.
That was my issue, taking a guy who was strictly a reliever in the second round. It is like drafting a DH, they have to be so amazing to make the pick work.
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If you listen to the Kantrovitz interview closely, he basically tells us that the Horton bonus was a factor in getting the draft achieved—as a whole—the way Cubs wanted to do it.
He’s not asserting that, if it was a one-round draft, the pick necessarily is Horton.
He’s telling us, fairly up-front, the context of that pick. At least that’s what I got from the interview.
Maybe, because the #7 overall pick is so important, the better strategy is to just take BPA with that pick—as if it was a one-round draft—and begin the “process” at round 2 and beyond. That’s the issue I raised earlier. I don’t know the answer.
As you say, we can't read minds, so all we can do is guess, based upon what we have been told. My personal opinion is that in a one round draft, they would have taken someone else. ArizonaPhil made a good explaination, showing that with the money spent on the two rounds of the draft, it is equivilent to trading our first round pick, number 7 and our second round pick, number 47, for two midteen first round picks. It was functionally the same as a football team trading down.
That said, the Cubs were lucky to get (presumably) the second rounder that they wanted. It could easily ended up differently, although not necessarily worse.
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Even with Carraway, I believe that the WTF was due to the fact that he was projected to be a releiver rather than the question of whether his command could be fixed.
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https://theathletic.com/3437936/2022/07/21/mlb-draft-report-card-national-league/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
Keith Law article, collects his notes on the Cubs picks. He has some mechanical faults with Ferris and Birdsell, plus of course Horton as a 2-pitch guy. This kind of encourages the idea that *if* the Cubs pitch-lab development process actually works, think what guys might become with some optimization. If Birdsell is throwing 94-96 and touches 98 with a lousy delivery that doesn't use his lower half, what might he become *if* he optimizes his delivery and is better able to use his legs? *IF* Ferris has some delivery flaws, imagine if the delivery gets optimized so that his control can be more consistent? If Horton can dominate the College World series with his two pitches, imagine how interesting he might become as he develops 3rd and maybe 4th besides?
Seems like some fun projects for Breslow to try to optimize.
I kind of assume they communicate quite a bit with players to see how willing they are to modify what they do. I recall back in Fleita days, they were kinda hesitant to mess with guys, at least not until they'd had some problems and were looking for solutions. I expect modern pitchers are much more eager to experiment, and with pitch lab to have better opportunity to quantify what might work and might help. But I suspect they've already talked to guys and have some sense of their willingness and openness to change.
Ferris has a similar long arm action to Jensen that the Cubs just cleaned up on him this year. So I think his issues are fixable. They have had luck with adding pitches like spike curves and Vulcan change ups prior to the revamp of the pitch lab so I think Horton’s issues are fixable.
It is fine to have opinions before the draft and even wish the Cubs did something different. They cleatlrly have a lot more info than what we do. I can see the what they where going for it makes sense. Carraway is literally the only draft pick that Kantrovitz has made that was a real WTF. We’ll just have to wait 5 years and see if they were right.
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If you listen to the Kantrovitz interview closely, he basically tells us that the Horton bonus was a factor in getting the draft achieved—as a whole—the way Cubs wanted to do it.
He’s not asserting that, if it was a one-round draft, the pick necessarily is Horton.
He’s telling us, fairly up-front, the context of that pick. At least that’s what I got from the interview.
Maybe, because the #7 overall pick is so important, the better strategy is to just take BPA with that pick—as if it was a one-round draft—and begin the “process” at round 2 and beyond. That’s the issue I raised earlier. I don’t know the answer.
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It's perfectly fine for the Cubs to take the trading down strategy and draft an overslot guy in the second round. A defensible strategy, though not what I would have done with Parada and (especially) Lee on the board. It would just be refreshing if they admitted that's what they were doing instead of pretending they though Horton was the BPA and everything went exactly as they dreamed.
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https://omny.fm/shows/wscr-0001/who-is-cade-horton-cubs-1st-round-pick-7th-overall
Not sure if this has been shared or not…David Haugh talks with Oklahoma coach Skip Johnson about Horton.
It’s a 35 minute clip, but only the first 19 or so are the interview…
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Because nobody on the board has any real access to really good first-hand info pre-draft—while the Cubs do, my hope for Cubs draft was that (1) Cubs are able to draft who they really want and (2) cubs don’t outsmart themselves, given all the multiples to consider.
Seems like they accomplished the first point above. Kantrovitz sure sounds like that happened. But, a little bit of me worries about the second point with the Horton pick.
I get the pick. High upside SP. Below slot and creates money for another high upside SP 2nd round. Makes sense.
But, most drafts in hindsight heavily evaluated based on how 1st rounder panned out. And, Cubs passed on Brooks Lee who seems to have a strong case for being a solid regular (or better)…and soon. That’s a lot to pass up for a guy that Kantrovitz basically conceded would not have been the pick if draft was held a month earlier. Keith Law threw out the description of “recency bias” for this pick and maybe “bias” is too pejorative a word but “recency” definitely seems apt.
Earlier, I noted that Horton had a HS pedigree too, so that's comforting. But, a little scary that the pick is mostly based on the pick’s most recent five starts. I get the “process” involved in the Cubs draft as a whole but will wonder for some time whether passing on Lee was a good idea.
As I have zero expertise to quarrel about it, I only raise the point. And, guessing that similar point was made within Cubs brain trust and then rejected. So, that’s good enough for me to be okay with the pick. But…..we’ll see.
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Yes, my memory is likely biased, but in the past it seems like they wanted draft selections to just go out and pitch during the summer after being drafted before making adjustments in the fall. I suspect there is so much data out there now that they can go up to a kid and say these changes will get you to the majors. Let's put them in place behind the scenes - and I'll let you try them out for 1 or 2 innings before the ACL concludes.
The late rounds used to be when you would fill out your SS-A team. Now it's all about getting pitchers with the potential to have plus pitch- after tweaks in the lab. Why exciting in theory, most of this will go on out of our sight.
Remember how excited "we" were when Ryan Jensen emerged from the pitching lab with 3 stellar outings in June (6/1 K/W in 8 IP with 5 H and 0 R allowed). In July he has a 9/8 K/W in 11 IP with 13 H and 10 ER allowed. Back to the lab?
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https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/cubs-weekly-podcast-dan-kantrovitz-analyzes-2022-draft/
Kantro comes on at 5 minutes, and stays through 32 minutes. Excellent interview, he's pretty open. Several interesting notes that struck me (it was all interesting, so these are just selective)
1. Said they'd actually even talked about Ferris at 7 at one point or another. So was happy he was still available at 47.
2. Said rounds 1+2 went exactly as they had hoped.
3. Made reference to Horton being their "#1 guy", but the context pretty obviously factored in allocating budget to other draftees.
4. For Paciolla, spoke to his positional flexibility, and scouting consensus that his contact capacity is good. Wording was perhaps optimistic but not necessarily super-confident about future power potential. (I found some of the media reports on him variably inconsistent. One spoke favorably about his contact; one or two others didn't. One or two talked about power potential, not all... So getting a feel for how Kantro and the Cub scouts perceive him was informative.).
5. Repeated reference to infrastructure and high-performance team and Breslow's team, etc.. Pretty obviously drafting for talent, and then entrusting it to the development teams.
6. Talked Birdsell as being pretty advanced. So didn't sound like he envisioned re-developing him in every way.
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https://theathletic.com/3437936/2022/07/21/mlb-draft-report-card-national-league/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
Keith Law article, collects his notes on the Cubs picks. He has some mechanical faults with Ferris and Birdsell, plus of course Horton as a 2-pitch guy. This kind of encourages the idea that *if* the Cubs pitch-lab development process actually works, think what guys might become with some optimization. If Birdsell is throwing 94-96 and touches 98 with a lousy delivery that doesn't use his lower half, what might he become *if* he optimizes his delivery and is better able to use his legs? *IF* Ferris has some delivery flaws, imagine if the delivery gets optimized so that his control can be more consistent? If Horton can dominate the College World series with his two pitches, imagine how interesting he might become as he develops 3rd and maybe 4th besides?
Seems like some fun projects for Breslow to try to optimize.
I kind of assume they communicate quite a bit with players to see how willing they are to modify what they do. I recall back in Fleita days, they were kinda hesitant to mess with guys, at least not until they'd had some problems and were looking for solutions. I expect modern pitchers are much more eager to experiment, and with pitch lab to have better opportunity to quantify what might work and might help. But I suspect they've already talked to guys and have some sense of their willingness and openness to change.
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Callis:
15th-rder Haydn McGeary signs w/@Cubs for $125k. @CMUMavsBaseball C led NCAA D-II in hitting (.481), OBP (.579), slugging (1.061), OPS (1.640), hits (103), homers (35), total bases (227), Two-time D-II player of the year, D-II career record 75 HR. Kentucky recruit. @MLBDraft
I like that they thought he was worth the full $125K. Last year a couple of the 3rd-day signings were $50 or $75.
And back in 2019, three of the 11-20 picks signed for $5K or less. (Darius Hill, who's now slipped to only .326 BA for Iowa, was a $5K guy.).
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August 1st at 5 pm. I think a lot of the drafted guys are already on their way to Arizona.
With the draft pools and players basically agreeing prior to the draft what they are going to get, moves things along.
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Callis:
15th-rder Haydn McGeary signs w/@Cubs for $125k. @CMUMavsBaseball C led NCAA D-II in hitting (.481), OBP (.579), slugging (1.061), OPS (1.640), hits (103), homers (35), total bases (227), Two-time D-II player of the year, D-II career record 75 HR. Kentucky recruit. @MLBDraft
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Not to distract from all of this bias, prejudice, cultural intolerance, and hate speech. But, is August 1st the deadline for draftees to sign, or is it later? I think it was like July 12th in one of the recent years with the June draft.
Not sure what the pros-and-cons are for players, agents, and organizations to have a quick deadline. Getting plane tickets for 19 guys to zig out to Mesa and then to schedule in all of their physicals, all within less than two weeks, sounds potentially tricksy, especially if any scans show any yellow-flags that need followup examination.
But man, for me as a fan, it sure is nice to have a fixed, quick calendar, and have it all done within two weeks. Way nicer than back in the Bobby Hill, Bobby Brownlie, Blasko days. have they signed yet? If not, when does their college actually start classes, Aug 22 or not till after Labor Day? If their college has started classes, has the unsigned Blasko actually gone to class, or is he still staying out of class so that the signing window is still open? Having a common deadline, and a quick one, is much nicer for me. Obviously the budget cap also takes away suspense.
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Obviously fake news. There are NO trees in North Dakota.
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Big deal. There is nothing to see in North Dakota.
Whadaaaya mean?
https://www.onlyinyourstate.com/north-dakota/terrifying-abandoned-places-nd/
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Big deal. There is nothing to see in North Dakota.
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In Montana, a thousand dollars can be life changing.
Yeah, but you can see North Dakota from there.
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He's going to get a fractional scholarship, not a full scholarship. Baseball doesn't have enough scholarships to field a full team. The Cubs can pay for tuition to college outside of his signing bonus though.
I've actually heard rumors that some baseball players are getting $250,00 or more in NIL money, despite Alabama's use of the bagman in the past, they are fairly behind the curve on NIL deals except for their stud football players.
I believe in the last draft, the Cubs gave a scholarship to the University of Chicago to a left handed pitcher that wanted to go there. That was in addition to whatever they gave him to sign.
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Word is he can be stubborn, we'll see.
and has psychic abilities
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I'd also guess out of state tuition for Alabama is worth more than the $125K bonus he'd get from the Cubs.
Alabama might not be the cream of the crop in baseball in the SEC, but that's still a school that wants first rate sports teams across the board and probably has the facilities to back it up. I can't imagine him signing, but you never know.
He's going to get a fractional scholarship, not a full scholarship. Baseball doesn't have enough scholarships to field a full team. The Cubs can pay for tuition to college outside of his signing bonus though.
I've actually heard rumors that some baseball players are getting $250,00 or more in NIL money, despite Alabama's use of the bagman in the past, they are fairly behind the curve on NIL deals except for their stud football players.
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Reb might have posted this already?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/1R9hzhGo0Q_29g2bfa2yQwHYqNN799JzkCP7HyK-XCKY/htmlview#
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In Montana, a thousand dollars can be life changing.
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Word is he can be stubborn, we'll see.
Honored to receive this homage from Deeg, repeating my joke from yesterday.
Thanks and appreciate the respect, especially after I tweaked his missing sense of humor——and then he takes a stab at humor by repeating my joke. (Honestly, wasn’t a great joke first time around but so appreciate the gesture).
Nazier Mule: Deeg fave and Reb fave—bringing the world together in peace.
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I'd also guess out of state tuition for Alabama is worth more than the $125K bonus he'd get from the Cubs.
Alabama might not be the cream of the crop in baseball in the SEC, but that's still a school that wants first rate sports teams across the board and probably has the facilities to back it up. I can't imagine him signing, but you never know.
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But he might be getting life changing college snatch and some NIL money.
If you dont think the SEC recruits with the ladies you're clearly not from around these parts.
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Not arguing anything Craig stated, but Alabama baseball isn’t as big time as one might believe, relative to the rest of the SEC…
Heh heh, in that context I certainly wouldn't imagine that some back-of-staff freshman from Montana is getting life-changing NIL money.
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https://theathletic.com/3435257/2022/07/20/cubs-draft-cade-horton-pitching/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983&redirected=1
Within the past 20 years post-Prior, the Cubs have used 14 first-round picks on pitchers. Matt Clanton, Chadd Blasko, Luke Hagerty, Bobby Brownlie, Mark Pawelek and Hayden Simpson never reached the majors. Andrew Cashner, Paul Blackburn and Alex Lange were included in trades .... Pierce Johnson is on the Padres’ injured list. Wicks, Ryan Jensen and Brendon Little are still in an improving farm system that will be adding a high-risk, high-reward talent from Oklahoma.
Andrew Cashner the best in the twenty years between Prior and Wicks.
Pierce Johnson and Paul Blackburn were picks 43 and 56. Mooney isn't literally incorrect, but guys taken in the 40's and late 50's aren't really what we usually envision when we think "first rounder".
Seems pretty urgent that Wicks and Horton reverse that record of futile drafting.
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Not arguing anything Craig stated, but Alabama baseball isn’t as big time as one might believe, relative to the rest of the SEC…
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SEC baseball aint no joke and there's NIL money to be made now.
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Of the 3rd-day guys, 19th-round Blatter is the guy I expect won't sign. He's the only young one, he just turned 18 earlier this month; he's an Alabama recruit, so big-time program; and he's big and already all-state and throws hard. I assume he will NOT sign, unless an overslot like Ferris fails his physical and some overslot cash becomes unexpectedly available.
JP Wheat turns 20 in two weeks. He'd seem the only other overslot candidate.
The rest of the 3rd-day guys are all at least 21. Some may get the full $125K slot, but certainly not all; and I doubt any of them will get any overslot.
One other possibility is that perhaps Blatter or Wheat might also consider redirecting and going to a JC, and keeping their options open for next spring and beyond.
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Was just coming here to post that re: Rujano…
Nice!
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https://twitter.com/Savermetrics/status/1549747522830184450?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1549747522830184450%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwitter.min.html1549747522830184450
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Word is he can be stubborn, we'll see.
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Not that there's any suspense, but Mule's coach said he'll be going pro.
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Heh heh, Haydn McGeary, 15th rounder, hit 35 HR in 54 games this year, for a D2 school in Mesa Colorado. Had a 1.640 OPS! Very fun.
CCDT has a link to McGeary’s Twitter page where he refers to himself as a Cub. So, he has a deal apparently.
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Wish he'd learned a spitter from Gaylord Perry instead.
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https://www.mlb.com/cubs/news/cubs-draft-mason-mcgwire-son-of-mark-mcgwire
Nice McGwire article. Said he kinda learned his splitter from Rollie Fingers.
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Kantrovitz excepts to sign 18-19 players.
Wow, that's really interesting. I don't think they signed that many last year, and with three HS guys today, a couple with decent college commits, I'd wondered. I imagine you always take at least one more expensive prospect than you figure you can sign, just in case one of your overslot-intended guys, like Ferris for hypothetical example, were to fail his physical.
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19th rounder Brock Blatter from a Montana HS was BA's #401 overall prospect. He has a commitment to Alabama.
BA:
Blatter has had an unusual path as a high school prospect, thanks mostly to being a Montana product. The state doesn’t have high school baseball and because of that, Blatter has been harder to scout than most. He pitched in Arizona and for the Area Code Select Brewers this spring, where he mostly pitched in the upper 80s, but also made his way to MLB’s Draft League during the summer, where he initially struggled with control, but started throwing a fastball in the 91-95 mph range. Blatter is a 6-foot-6, 215-pound righthander with a great frame and solid arm talent now. He has thrown two breaking balls, though the slider is the better of the two and during the Draft League it was a mid-80s pitch with spin in the 2,600-2,700-rpm range. There are a few teams intrigued with Blatter’s size and improving stuff and he would seemingly have plenty of projection remaining as a cold weather arm who hasn’t pitched too frequently. If teams are scared off the profile due to his relative lack of history, Blatter could head to campus at Alabama. He has a chance to be the first high school player drafted out of Montana since righthander Gage Hinsz in 2014.
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Kantrovitz excepts to sign 18-19 players.
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19th rounder Brock Blatter from a Montana HS was BA's #401 overall prospect. He has a commitment to Alabama.
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Garriola was hitting .370 well into the season but had a major slump final 75 or so ABs.
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17th round pick Old Dominion OF Andy Garriola, 6-5 Corner OF, .322/.384/.715
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More on McGeary.
https://www.gjsentinel.com/sports/mcgeary-sweeps-national-player-of-the-year-honors-once-again/article_db316d02-f70c-11ec-be15-ab6c30e76e49.html
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Reading up on Rujano…getting him to sign would be a grand slam…
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Heh heh, Haydn McGeary, 15th rounder, hit 35 HR in 54 games this year, for a D2 school in Mesa Colorado. Had a 1.640 OPS! Very fun.
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It’s an interesting draft, for sure…
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Rujano has a scholarship to USF, so he might be a tough sign.
Peters grew 9 inches after high school and can touch 101.
Brandon Noriega was an MLB Draft camp guy with no shcool listed hit 96 has a lefty.
Shane Marshall, P Georgia, has barely pitched but my 1 stuff+ model has the second best fastball in college.
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Through round 14, four more pitchers. Seems like the theme of big-armed guys to be given pitch-lab-development opportunity. 14th rounder a strong-armed backup catcher for U Georgia. 13th rounder was a raw 19-year-old high schooler, from Florida HS but born in Venezuela.
I'll be curious to see whether any of the picks today try the draft-and-follow route?
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12th rounder Matt Peters.
https://takeoutyourscorecards.wordpress.com/2022/04/14/ivy-tech-northeast-right-hander-peters-now-hitting-triple-digits/
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5. I'm guarded about Mule. Sounds like a really big talent, pretty high-ceiling for a 4th rounder.
Tell the truth. When you wrote "Mule", you were thinking "Mule", not "Mul ee".
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...I think a lot of this is giving the development team high end arms and seeing what happens. Keegan Thompson was basically a Noland like pick, decent college pitcher without a fastball and they turned him into a useful major league pitcher. If you give them guys that are already throwing in the upper 90's with decent control I really want to see what they can do with them.
Kyle Body, formely with the Reds and runs Driveline, has a pitching development metric for minor league systems and the Cubs have jumped up the list. The pitch lab may not have a ton impact at the major league rotation yet, but I think it is coming soon. This is the first draft where I think the Cubs targeted pitchers that they can really improve.
Yes, exactly. They've been working with a lot of 3rd-day draft picks, and many of the more talented guys have been injured. (McAvene, Franklin, Brailyn, Thompson....). So getting some volume of guys who have talent, it should be fascinating to see what they can do.
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I'm an optimist, so I always love the draft and the influx of new guys and new hopes.
1. With the pitch-lab and pitching-development possibilities, it's so much easier now to believe that they can develop the pitchers. So it's fun to imagine what they might be able to do with some of these talents.
2. Guys like McGwire and Mule, I think the pitching-development program has some great opportunities there for the young guys. McGwire especially seems super projectable. Who knows how hard he might throw in three years?
3. I was surprised and delighted that they were able to afford three HS guys yesterday. After Ferris, I'd wondered what cash was left. Will be fascinating to see how far overslot McGwire, Mule, and perhaps also Pacciola might go.
4. I also kinda like some of the take-a-shot risk-reward with some of the college picks. In some ways I think taking a couple of guys with some injury history gives you a chance to get better value, *IF* they stay healthy. Frisch might come back 100% and be a good prospect. Birdsell seems to have velocity and offspeed and reasonable control. Maybe they can help touch-up his delivery and touch up his fastball movement, and who knows? McCollough sounds interesting, too.
5. I'm guarded about Mule. Sounds like a really big talent, pretty high-ceiling for a 4th rounder. Still, while the Cubs development is good at some things, remediating wildmen remains kinda unproven. Perhaps getting a wildman when he's 17 is the time to get your hands on him and try to refine him early and slowly? Would be awesome if he clicks someday.
6. With Hawkins and the Cleveland history, I'm hopeful that the Cubs have a good clue on what to look at in pitchers and what can be optimized. It would be fun moving forward to have a lot of trust in the Cubs D+D departments; I don't think I've had that in a while for the Cubs.
7. It's fun to have been able to take both Ferris on Sunday and some upside guys on Day 2. But that capacity did depend on underslot Horton. So much hinges on whether he'll be good, and whether his fastball will be a quality pitch that he can locate for strikes and get outs with. *IF* Horton turns out terrific, this could be a great draft. But *IF* Horton ends up being JAG, retrospect may be less kind. But man, it sure is fun to have top-10 pick and the draft dollars that come with it. Would be really good to stack some good drafts while e happen to have a couple of seasons selecting in the top ten.
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Yeah I'm wondering if a two pitch guy like Horton without a lot of innings under his belt is more destined to be moved to the pen. Still, the Cubs saw a path to getting two high end talents, appeared to read the draft board pretty well and took good advantage of it.
He does have a decent change up. He struggled controlling it and didn't need it to dominate college hitters.
I think a lot of this is giving the development team high end arms and seeing what happens. Keegan Thompson was basically a Noland like pick, decent college pitcher without a fastball and they turned him into a useful major league pitcher. If you give them guys that are already throwing in the upper 90's with decent control I really want to see what they can do with them.
Kyle Body, formely with the Reds and runs Driveline, has a pitching development metric for minor league systems and the Cubs have jumped up the list. The pitch lab may not have a ton impact at the major league rotation yet, but I think it is coming soon. This is the first draft where I think the Cubs targeted pitchers that they can really improve.
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While I am not as high on our #1 pick as some....
Yeah I'm wondering if a two pitch guy like Horton without a lot of innings under his belt is more destined to be moved to the pen. Still, the Cubs saw a path to getting two high end talents, appeared to read the draft board pretty well and took good advantage of it.
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Having a BIG inventory of high-ceiling pitchers seems like the only way to go. So many get hurt or flame out or or or.
The game is still so much about pitching and that's what sinks the Cubs far more years than any other area(s) of weakness.
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Agree with Doc! This is my favorite Cubs Draft in quite awhile. While I am not as high on our #1 pick as some, I like (or understand) what we have taken the rest of the way and I do see the high ceiling for Horton though a low floor may also be in play. I guess the low floor is true of many draftees, even those taken in the 1st round.
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While I was disappointed we didn’t take a hitter, I really like this draft. It reminds me of the Hoerner draft.
Horton- seems to have the building blocks to be a TORP pitcher. He needs to be more consistent with the slider and develop his change up more and hopefully a curve.
Ferris- skinny lefty who is already up to 95. Add some weight and velocity and he could be another TORP pitcher.
Paciolla- from the limited clips I’ve seen the swing is pretty.
Mule- seems to have some high upside
Birdsell- back of the rotation starter or a multi-inning reliever is fun in the fifth.
Frisch- TJS so who knows what he’ll be when he recovers
Hull- 91/92 on the fastball, but he is a high spin guy. The slider is 3000 rpm and the fastball is as well. If you could boost the fastball up to 95 that could make a fun bull pen guy
McGwire- he’s 91/92 on the fastball. You need to add velocity, but the Cubs have had success with high schoolers in this range.
Cubs came away with fun guys. The rest of the rounds should be interesting too.
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Via Lance Brozdrowski (Marquee’s prospect guy) on twitter
Some notes on a few #Cubs draft picks via CHC and non-CHC sources...
Jackson Ferris - Currently 91-95 mph good carry FB, CU is 78-81, CH 84-86
Repertoire will change by end of 2023, fill in mix w/ SL & refine CH (key development points). He's funky, Kikuchi/Fried mechanics.
Christopher Paciolla, SS - Internally it seems like they love this kid, comp'd him closely to Mickey Romero, the Red Sox first-round pick, but got him 3rd round.
He's a dream for the S&C team, an underdeveloped body, should look different in 1-2 years.
Brandon Birdsell, RHP - 95-96 mph on FB t99, high efficiency, short/tight slider, sparsely used CH that data likes but he hasn't been able to put in zone.
A non-CHC org said they had concerns about how the fastball will play at higher levels, even with velo, secondaries are 👍.
Not active spin, efficiency is 98%+, spin rate is below avg. Sounds like it's an approach thing, doesn't really flatten out at top of zone, hasn't been able to generate swing-miss to this point.
But it's just one org, I would guess Cubs either a) see a fix or b) love secondaries
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If the Cubs are not able to sign Ferris, do they get a replacement pick next year, or did the new agreement change that?
ArizonaPhil
Keep in mind that if a club doesn't sign its first, second, or third round pick, the club gets a compenstion pick in the next draft, one slot lower if it's a first or a second round pick who does not sign, or at the end of the third round if it's a third round pick who does not sign.
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For my Derek Diamond fans….he was drafted by the Pirates in the 6th round and is signing.
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10 - Brody McCullough - 6’4, 205 RHP from Wingate
110 Ks in 63 IP at D2 level…best pitch is low 90s FB
Glad we got him in the 10th. We used to take guys like that in the 1st round (if they were 5’8 or shorter).
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There’s now also draft pick compensation for unsigned players taken in first three rounds.
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Could have HS guys Cubs draft go JUCO route and retain their rights until near next year’s draft.
AZ Phil:
The signing deadline for most draft picks is August 1st, but for the first time in about 15 years, players selected in the draft who do not sign and then go to a a junior college can be signed by the club that drafted the player up until one week prior to the next year's draft…The club has to have the Signing Bonus Pool space to sign the player, however. Thus rule also applies to draft-eligible players who are playing independent ball (like Kumar Rocker).
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Tomorrow's draft will be interesting. Do the Cubs still have some money left for 1-2 high schoolers? Will they target a bunch of junior college guys as draft and follow? Since undrafted free agents can get more money will they try and fill out org depth that way if they actually need anybody.
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Wow, so 9 pitchers out of 10 picks.
Think that puts the Horton pick into context.
Yeah, says something about how front office looks at the farm system: in need of more pitching.
Not really a surprise. We knew system strong in a bunch of exciting position player prospects. Pitching not nearly as deep.
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This has been a fun draft to follow. Interesting to pick only one hitter in the first 10 rounds. Hopefully Horton is the late bloomer that he looked like in the postseason and our upside picks work out. Goodness knows we need some quality pitching on the farm.
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BA:
Brody McCullough
McCullough made 18 appearances for Wingate during his 2019 freshman season and then transitioned to a starting role during the Covid-shortened 2020 season. In 2021 he split time as a starter and reliever but posted a 2.47 ERA while managing excellent strikeout and walk rates, and this spring as a full-time starter he continued to miss bats and prevent runs. The 6-foot-4, 205-pound righthander posted a 2.40 ERA over 11 starts and 63.2 innings, while striking out 110 batters (42.1 K%) and walking 24 (9.2 BB%). For his career at Wingate, McCullough has struck out 258 batters (32.3 K%), compared to just 72 walks (9.0 BB%). After a strong spring season, McCullough headed to the Cape Cod League, where he posted a 2.70 ERA over five starts and 20 innings for Hyannis, with 30 strikeouts (38.5 K%) and eight walks (10.3 BB%). McCullough throws a fastball in the lower 90s, a slider in the low-to-mid 80s and a mid-80s changeup. His college track record is impressive and his turn on the Cape late in the year before the draft could have teams even more excited.
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Interesting to see how much the Cubs are leaning into recently-injured guys. Who knows how the strategy will work out, but I like the appetite for risk.
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And here are notes on him from the Cape…
https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/tag/Brody+McCullough
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Callis just said McCullough performed well at the Cape…
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10 - Brody McCullough - 6’4, 205 RHP from Wingate
110 Ks in 63 IP at D2 level…best pitch is low 90s FB
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I think the draft and follow is only for JC players, but I'm not sure.
Birdsell probably has at least 1 more year, but with COVID players where able to petition for a 6th year if they want it. The difference with baseball is that it is a partial scholarship, so he or his family have to pay money to keep going to school and at 23 his offers probably aren't going to get a lot better.
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Mark McGwire has another son, a position player prospect, who is transferring to U of Oklahoma.
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With 2-way player Mule announced as a pitcher, Cubs have drafted 8 pitchers with first 9 picks.
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BA:
Connor Noland
After not filling a significant role on the 2021 club, Noland stepped up to fill the massive void created when Arkansas’ expected ace Peyton Pallette blew out his elbow. Noland was rarely spectacular, but he was extremely reliable as Arkansas’ Friday starter. He went 8-6, 3.65 in 116 innings and 19 starts. Noland’s 89-91 mph fastball would be a below-average pitch in pro ball, but it does effectively set up his average, mid-80s slider and above-average, mid-80s curveball. He has above-average control. Noland is a fourth-year junior who could opt to return to Arkansas for another season if his late-round draft status doesn’t entice him.
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I hope he has kept in touch with the guy that supplied his father with all those "nutritional suppliments".
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9 - Connor Noland- 6’2 senior RHP from Arkansas - another who had a nice postseason run…
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And yes…Mason McGwire has a famous father…and it’s not Dan McGwire…
Wasn't Mark McGwire almost as good of a pitching prospect coming out of college as he was a hitter?
Kind of fun that we drafted his son considering how much his dad wore us out over the years.
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Apparently, pronounced moo-LAY
Not on THIS board.
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Birdsell pitched only 7 innings as a freshman at Texas A+M. I don't know the threshold for NCAA baseball; but I'm guessing that 7 innings maybe doesn't exhaust a year of eligibility? So I'd guess it might be correct that he's actually got one more available?
Still, he's 22 already and with the draft not till late July, to come back as a red-shirt senior next year, and get drafted at age 23 in July, that seems relatively unappealing.
Question: There is a draft-and-sign rule that is back in place. Where a guy can go unsigned this summer, go back and play another spring in school, and then get signed for up to $200K without needing to go back into the draft. Is that limited to JC players? Or could potentially draft-eligible sophomore (or juniors too) use that?
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And yes…Mason McGwire has a famous father…and it’s not Dan McGwire…
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7th - Nick Hull, 22yo RHP from Grand Canyon U
8th - Mason McGwire - 18 yo RHP - Capistrano Valley HS (CA) - Oklahoma commit - 6’4 190
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Cubs 7th rounder Nick Hull, Grand Canyon College pitcher, is listed at school site as a Graduate Student.
I think that means, if he wants to sign, he has to pay into a fund to help pay Birdsell’s bonus.
Will help to stay under slot.
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Regardless of how he is listed, he may not have any eligibility remaining.
Not sure, you may be right.
But, found link below from one year ago that says Birdsell has two years of eligibility remaining. Not sure if that’s accurate.
https://patch.com/texas/conroe-montgomerycounty/mlb-draft-former-willis-p-brandon-birdsell-drafted-twins
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Even good seniors will come at some discount, just not a huge one.
In 2014, Cubs drafted Jake Stinnett—a senior—2nd round #45 overall.
As CBJ notes, there was a small discount with Stinnett but signed very close to slot as a premier prospect at the time.
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Regardless of how he is listed, he may not have any eligibility remaining.
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Is Birdsell a full senior? Or does he have another year of eligibility left if he wants it?
https://texastech.com/sports/baseball/roster/brandon-birdsell/11657
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Is Birdsell a full senior? Or does he have another year of eligibility left if he wants it?
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Birdsell listed as Jr. at team site.
https://texastech.com/sports/baseball/roster/brandon-birdsell/11657
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Even good seniors will come at some discount, just not a huge one.
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6th round
BA #200.
Will Frisch
Frisch ranked No. 155 in the 2021 draft class a year ago as a draft-eligible sophomore and pitched in several roles for Oregon State to great success. Frisch was expected to move into the starting rotation full-time this spring for the Beavers, but a partially torn UCL and subsequent Tommy John surgery ended his 2022 season before it began—like many pitchers in this injury-ridden class. Frisch entered the year with second-to-fourth round potential, thanks to a solid three-pitch mix including a fastball, slider and changeup. In 2021 as a split starter/reliever, Frisch averaged 94 mph and ran the pitch up to 98, while his upper-80s changeup earned plus grades and generated a 40% whiff rate and his mid-80s slider checked in at average. With a solid or better three-pitch mix and control that took a big step forward from 2020 to 2021, Frisch looked the part of a solid starting pitching prospect with a filled-out 6-foot, 222-pound frame. His injury and lost 2022 season make him more of a question mark.
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BA:
Birdsell has come a long way in his four years of college ball (one year at Texas A&M, one year at San Jacinto (Texas) JC and two years at Texas Tech). A mid-April rotator cuff injury derailed Birdsell’s 2021 season. He was still drafted by the Twins in the 11th round, but he opted to return to Texas Tech to improve his draft standing. He should do better this year after going 9-3, 2.75 with 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s completely reworked his delivery and filled out from 210 pounds as a freshman to 245 pounds now. Birdsell once was a flamethrower with no idea of where the ball was going. Birdsell’s delivery now is both simple and unorthodox. He simply breaks his hands and goes home as if he’s playing a game of catch, but with a slight stutter as he hangs over his plant leg, which messes with hitters’ timing. It’s paid off in improved control. Birdsell’s plus four-seam fastball sits at 95-96 mph and has touched 99. He carries that velocity through his starts. His above-average mid-80s slider has more depth than tilt, which allows it to be effective against lefties as well as righties. He throws a fringe-average 86-87 mph changeup almost exclusively to lefties. Birdsell has at least a solid path as a two-pitch reliever, but his control improvements give him a shot of going out in pro ball as a starter. His age (22) will likely hurt him on many teams’ boards.
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There's the Senior draft!! Brandon Birdsell. Pitcher from Texas Tech.
Don’t think so. Junior according to Texas Tech website.
Birdsell 2nd team All-Ametican. BA #137 ranked. Doesn’t seem underslot.
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Birdsell is #101 at mlb.com. He has been drafted twice before.
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Sounds like quite a bit to like with him if he can stay healthy…
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There's the Senior draft!! Brandon Birdsell. Pitcher from Texas Tech.
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Don't ruin it for me. Let me have my moment.
Well, Mule’s parents say he’s terribly stubborn.
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Paciolla and Mule ranked overall #126 and #98, respectively, by BA.
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Apparently, pronounced moo-LAY
Don't ruin it for me. Let me have my moment.
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It's a HS P named Nazier Mule. Fun name if he makes it.
Apparently, pronounced moo-LAY
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next pick has to be a money saving pick
Doesn’t seem like it. U of Miami recruit.
BA:
Mule has been famous from an early age, standing out for his athleticism at shortstop, raw power and outstanding arm strength. As he enters his draft year, Mule has the talent to play both ways in college at Miami, but his professional future looks brighter on the mound. He has reached 100 mph, even more remarkable given that he will be 17 until October. This spring, Mule pitched more in the 92-96 mph range, then after an April start in which he threw more than 100 pitches, he felt soreness in his arm and hasn’t pitched since, though he has still been hitting and playing first base at times. When Mule was pitching, multiple scouts noted he was often pitching backwards, throwing more breaking balls than fastballs. Over the summer, Mule’s slider was often fringy to below-average, but some scouts who saw him this spring said he snapped off some better sliders and was showing more feel for his changeup. Some of them also thought that, while he wasn’t throwing as hard as they had seen in the past, he was showing more pitchability than he had before when he was more of a thrower than a pitcher, though others noted times where he lost his control. Mule’s youth, athleticism and raw arm strength will appeal to some teams, while others view him as a high-risk prep arm.
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It's a HS P named Nazier Mule. Fun name if he makes it.
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next pick has to be a money saving pick
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UCLA recruit Paciolla figures to be at least slot, if not more.
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BA:
Paciolla was not a well-known name entering the spring, but plenty of scouts ran into Temecula Valley High in California to see the 6-foot-2, 185-pound shortstop. Paciolla is a projection power hitter who has a body you can dream on. He’s tall and lean with plenty of room for more strength gains in the future, and a chance to get to above-average power. While most scouts seem to think he’ll be a power-over-hit bat, the industry is split on his pure hitting ability. Some think he showed a shorter swing throughout the spring and will be able to make adjustments with hands that work well, while others question his swing decisions and contact ability, noting that he pulls out on his front side with some frequency. At the plate, Paciolla stands with a closed off lower half, but will still get caught out in front trying to pull the ball to left. Defensively, Paciolla has soft hands and an average arm now that could become above-average with more strength, but he lacks the footspeed to stick at shortstop despite solid instincts. He’s a below-average runner and takes time to get underway out of the box, but he could profile at third base as he develops physically. Paciolla is committed to UCLA.
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I am sure that they believe that. But I doubt that oral agreements are binding in these circumstances, and there is always the chance that someone will change their mind.
Very, very rare that someone reneges on an agreement, even informal with draft.
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New pick. Kantrovitz expects no signability issues with either guy.
The Cubs will know the dollar amount of every pick they make.
I am sure that they believe that. But I doubt that oral agreements are binding in these circumstances, and there is always the chance that someone will change their mind.
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UCLA commit. Kantro had some money to spend, I think...
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wow another HS player didnt see that thought they were going to try to save some money
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If the Cubs are not able to sign Ferris, do they get a replacement pick next year, or did the new agreement change that?
New pick. Kantrovitz expects no signability issues with either guy.
*If* Kantro hypotheticallyalready knows those numbers, that would facilitate strategic decisions today. For example, whether Horton and Ferris combine for 6.9, 7.4, or 7.9 will dramatically impact what Kantro can do today.
The Cubs will know the dollar amount of every pick they make.
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i thought it was only if you didnt sign your first round pick not a second. but I could be way wrong on that
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If the Cubs are not able to sign Ferris, do they get a replacement pick next year, or did the new agreement change that?
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I believe it is the area scout that does the work on signability.
This is from Fangraphs
"I don’t know for sure whether the Cubs cut an under-slot deal with Cade Horton, but based on the pre-draft rumors about them looking to cut at pick No. 7, and the Jackson Ferris pick in round two, I’d guess they did. Horton was rumored to be ticketed for close to $4 million before the draft, which would be a $1.7 million cut. Jackson Ferris, I’m told, was looking for “Top 20 money,” which means about $3.5 million, about $2 million above slot at his pick."
Thanks, blue. I guess I'd wondered whether, for a $5M-type big-ticket franchise-player-wannabe, whether Kantro or Hoyer or Hawkins might perhaps take that over? Higher stakes than with guys like Christian Franklin or Luke Little or the biochemist. But perhaps they still do just leave it to the area scout, even for Horton.
Obvious that he'll be variably underslot. The Fangraph gossip that Ferris was wanting top-20 cash, that's informative and not obvious. Adding two guys your scouts think are top-10/top-20 values, that's really fun. :). Two practical questions are how far under and over for Horton and Ferris; and how well-defined those numbers entering today's picks? *If* Kantro hypotheticallyalready knows those numbers, that would facilitate strategic decisions today. For example, whether Horton and Ferris combine for 6.9, 7.4, or 7.9 will dramatically impact what Kantro can do today.
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Two interesting sections that caught my eye:
1. "In a pre-Draft meeting with Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and general manager Carter Hawkins on Sunday morning, Kantrovitz presented an “ideal road map” for the first two rounds. Landing Horton was the primary goal, but the Cubs were already aiming for Ferris in Round 2."
2. "'The first thing I asked Cade when I called him to congratulate him,” Kantrovitz said, “was if he remembered when we came to his house back in high school...'"
Interesting that Horton was allegedly the "ideal-road-map" intended round-one pick, and that they were also "aiming for" Ferris round 2. So, they did their work, applied their best-allocation-of-dollars analysis, and got the players they wanted. Now, time will tell if they both selected wisely and get lucky with health and development.
Interesting that Kantro apparently hadn't been in prior communication. Part of the "ideal-road-map" analysis hinges on price point for each big ticket. So it's interesting that Kantro had apparently not been in direct personal communication. Maybe he didn't with family, but had with agent? Maybe he didn't with family, but the area scout was tasked with that? I've just always wondered how some of the pre-communication goes, since the whole plan for 2nd round and beyond hinges on how much of the $10M budget will get absorbed by pick #1. I'd kinda guess that is more complex with Horton. I think Steele could say $1M, nice round number; Triantos, $2M, nice round number. But Horton's number is much bigger, plus his self-perception of fair-price has probably fluctuated wildly since March.
I believe it is the area scout that does the work on signability.
This is from Fangraphs
"I don’t know for sure whether the Cubs cut an under-slot deal with Cade Horton, but based on the pre-draft rumors about them looking to cut at pick No. 7, and the Jackson Ferris pick in round two, I’d guess they did. Horton was rumored to be ticketed for close to $4 million before the draft, which would be a $1.7 million cut. Jackson Ferris, I’m told, was looking for “Top 20 money,” which means about $3.5 million, about $2 million above slot at his pick."
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The rest of today's picks will provide some insight into Kantro's price estimations for Horton and Ferris. Hoping he's still got some $$ left to allocate.
I'm optimistic about the two picks. Risky for sure, no question. For teams where things work out, some uncertain players work out well.
Cubs need to hit on some of their players, and avoid the injury bug too. Teams get built player by player. It would so be cool if down the line the Cubs are a consistently serious contender with a high-caliber rotation; and in retrospect we look back at this gutsy, risky draft as one that generated two consistent asset rotation starters.
Heh heh, while I'm in Koolaid world, Wicks will also be good and Gray will bounce back from his TJ and be really good too.
I'm also kind of optimistic that between Kantro's staff and Hawkins, that perhaps they have a pretty good scouting eye for pitchers? Gray obviously got injured quickly, but he was a surprise pick last year, barely top-200 in media rankings, but Kantro's guys evaluated differently and pre-surgery he appeared to be a stud. So, maybe they're just pretty good at envisioning what a guy might do? Wicks seems to have been an intelligent eval, as well. Little and perhaps Moreno appear to have been scouting-validated picks, even if Moreno is wild and really just getting started. Obviously pitchers and injuries go together, so if you spend your bullets on pitchers, you can't act surprised if they fail due to injury. But yeah, I'd like to think that they know how to scout and draft pitchers pretty welll?
The one obvious mega-bust was Burl. Maybe too overconfident in the pitch-lab capacity to transform **so** wild a guy?
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As 2nd round pick was coming, I'd had Connor Prielipp in view, the U Alabama pitcher from Wisconsin kind of in view. Thinking that after Wicks last year, and then Horton this year, then if they added another high-ceiling first-round-talent college guy, the rotation could hypothetically be rebuilt very very quickly.
So the decision to go after HS Ferris surprised me some. Perhaps reassuringly so, that kinda confirms the commitment to long-term BPA.
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Bastian piece, with Kantrovitz remarks.
https://www.mlb.com/news/cubs-take-cade-horton-with-no-7-overall-pick-in-mlb-draft
Two interesting sections that caught my eye:
1. "In a pre-Draft meeting with Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and general manager Carter Hawkins on Sunday morning, Kantrovitz presented an “ideal road map” for the first two rounds. Landing Horton was the primary goal, but the Cubs were already aiming for Ferris in Round 2."
2. "'The first thing I asked Cade when I called him to congratulate him,” Kantrovitz said, “was if he remembered when we came to his house back in high school...'"
Interesting that Horton was allegedly the "ideal-road-map" intended round-one pick, and that they were also "aiming for" Ferris round 2. So, they did their work, applied their best-allocation-of-dollars analysis, and got the players they wanted. Now, time will tell if they both selected wisely and get lucky with health and development.
Interesting that Kantro apparently hadn't been in prior communication. Part of the "ideal-road-map" analysis hinges on price point for each big ticket. So it's interesting that Kantro had apparently not been in direct personal communication. Maybe he didn't with family, but had with agent? Maybe he didn't with family, but the area scout was tasked with that? I've just always wondered how some of the pre-communication goes, since the whole plan for 2nd round and beyond hinges on how much of the $10M budget will get absorbed by pick #1. I'd kinda guess that is more complex with Horton. I think Steele could say $1M, nice round number; Triantos, $2M, nice round number. But Horton's number is much bigger, plus his self-perception of fair-price has probably fluctuated wildly since March.
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Always a useful site:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9hzhGo0Q_29g2bfa2yQwHYqNN799JzkCP7HyK-XCKY/htmlview#
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I don't think Horton has the Harden changeup.
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Just saw Rich Harden mentioned as a comp, and that’s a pretty good one as well…peak Harden was really good…
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Bastian piece, with Kantrovitz remarks.
https://www.mlb.com/news/cubs-take-cade-horton-with-no-7-overall-pick-in-mlb-draft
Thanks for the link.
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Definitely
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Anybody else see a little Kerry Wood in Horton's delivery?
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Some grades.
CBS:
7. Cubs: Cade Horton, RHP, Oklahoma
Horton had a phenomenal June for the Sooners, causing his stock to shoot up after the publication of our top 30 rankings. Those are the breaks sometimes. He has a big-time power arm, though none of the scouts or evaluators who spoke to CBS Sports were sold on him sticking in a rotation. The Cubs taking him this early, then, is a steep gamble, albeit one that may end up looking brilliant. Grade: C
BR:
Grade: C
Between Horton's limited collegiate success and the Cubs' abysmal recent track record developing pitching, this is a tough one to understand. It looks an awful lot like what the Kansas City Royals did picking at No. 7 overall last year when they reached for Frank Mozzicato to save money for later in the draft, so stay tuned.
Sporting News:
7. Cubs — Cade Horton, RHP, Oklahoma
Grade: B
Horton struggled mightily through the first half of the Oklahoma season, but he picked it up late and was as dynamic as anyone during the Sooners' College World Series final run. His fastball reaches the upper 90s and his slider is a filthy out-pitch. He also offers a solid curveball and a serviceable changeup. The Cubs are thinking that what he did in the College World Series is the type of pitching prospect he'll be in the system. More risk than most college arms taken this early, but plenty of upside.
ESPN:
7. Chicago Cubs: Cade Horton, RHP, Oklahoma
Who is Horton? A late riser on draft boards, Cade Horton was dominant on the mound during Oklahoma's College World Series run capped by a MCWS final-record 13-strikeout outing against eventual champion Ole Miss in Omaha. Before being sidelined due to Tommy John surgery, Horton arrived at Oklahoma a local product of Norman High as one of the nation's most heralded recruits in 2020 as a two-way star on the diamond and also as a quarterback.
Why the Cubs took him here: The view of Horton changed dramatically for the better after his strong postseason performance for the Sooners. Teams don't usually draft for need, but it's also true the Cubs system is stronger in position player prospects and weaker in starting pitching prospects (especially in the upper levels). It appears the Cubs were focused on getting a pitcher. -- Schoenfield
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Bastian piece, with Kantrovitz remarks.
https://www.mlb.com/news/cubs-take-cade-horton-with-no-7-overall-pick-in-mlb-draft
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Kind of figured that the first seven picks would not be the “Big 7” from the Mocks over past few weeks. Draft always seems to have some surprises. This one no different. Just don’t know in advance what the surprises will be.
Nobody expected the Horton pick of course. BA said Horton pitched post-season like scouts saw him pitch in HS pre-TJ, so the dramatic post-season improvement compared to regular season not out of nowhere. Guessing that HS pedigree was a factor for Cubs.
I get the Brooks Lee appeal, but BA noted he’s a body builder of sorts and the bulk may affect his range as a pro as he ages, plus he has an injury history. Still, everybody thinks he’ll hit but maybe limited upside as solid regular rather than a star? Also get appeal of a possible #2 SP exceeds that of Lee, arguably.
Guessing that Horton at #10 slot money savings (compared to #7 slot) plus 5% overage will pay for almost all of the overslot Ferris bonus.
Interesting that Jacob Berry, defense issues and all, went way higher than age wunderkind Cam Collier. Maybe Collier didn’t overly impress during brief stint at the Cape or maybe a guy who mashes at top college level is more appealing.
Wouldn’t mind seeing Cubs take a slot value college pitcher in 3rd round, if possible. Go all in on pitching, these rounds.
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Top 10 round picks usually have an agreed upon price before the pick is made and very rarely don’t sign.
If you drafted Parada or Lee at 7 you probably don’t get Ferris at 47. The Cubs came away with 2 first round talents with their top 2 picks. Both have a chance at being a #2-3 starter in scouting terms, which is a 3-4 WAR player or an all-star level pitcher.
Everybody has a chance to be anybody. It's all about odds. If the Cubs truly believed Lee (or Parada, for that matter) isn't what the overwhelming majority of the scouting community thinks he is, then I guess it makes sense. What they did was effectively trade down in the draft like NBA teams do. Whether it's smart in any specific case depends on the available options.
For me, where the Cubs are now, when you're sitting at #7 you take the BPA. I think that was Lee, who some scouts had going at #1 and seems as close to a sure thing as anybody in this draft.
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I wasn't surprise by the Rocker going #3. None of the mockers knew where to put him. I really wonder if he had still been on the board at 7, when our brain trust would have done.
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well it looks like this time next year we will have another top pick. and the year after that and maybe the year after that
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Top 10 round picks usually have an agreed upon price before the pick is made and very rarely don’t sign.
If you drafted Parada or Lee at 7 you probably don’t get Ferris at 47. The Cubs came away with 2 first round talents with their top 2 picks. Both have a chance at being a #2-3 starter in scouting terms, which is a 3-4 WAR player or an all-star level pitcher.
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if they sign ferris then it might be worth the risk but if not then it is a waste. I just wish they would have gone best available with both picks.
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Cubs certainly going with some risk with these two picks, but they are definitely getting some upside.
I'm a lot more comfortable with the level of risk with Ferris than with the 7th overall pick, especially considering who was still on the board.
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does this mean the cubs go cheap the rest of the way to help pay for ferris or do the other rounds just get a certain amount?
Depends on what Horton is signing for. The rumor was the Cubs we’re looking to save on the first round pick. If Horton was looking at full slot at 10 they could save around $700,000 by giving him $5 million. There second round pick has $1.6 million bonus slot. If his ask is $3 million they probably go senior signs in the 6-10 rounds. If they aren’t saving much on Horton then they probably have to punt the rest of the draft if his ask is $3 million.
The Cubs seem to love the IMG lefties.
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Cubs certainly going with some risk with these two picks, but they are definitely getting some upside.
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does this mean the cubs go cheap the rest of the way to help pay for ferris or do the other rounds just get a certain amount?
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https://twitter.com/mlbpipeline/status/1416081971285999618?s=21&t=Vhp-0a7DEb5gR5YKAp3_6w
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If it is you and Dave will be happy, because he'll be a Bulldog next season.
Rebel, not Bulldog…that’s those agriculture majors from down South in Starkville…
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Peyton Graham would be a nice pick if we went position player…
Longenhagen said in the chat he has makeup issues.
Got the lefty pitcher right. Ferris was 19 on MLB pipeline, 43 on Fangraphs, 38 with Law.
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BA:
Jackson Ferris
Originally a product of Mount Airy High in North Carolina, Ferris transferred to IMG Academy, where he wowed scouts during his junior season by posting a 0.55 ERA over 50.2 innings and striking out 86 batters compared to just 13 walks. He made significant velocity increases throughout his high school career, and over the 2021 showcase circuit was regularly around 93 mph and touching 96-97 mph at peak from the left side. On top of that fastball, Ferris has flashed multiple above-average secondaries: a mid-70s curveball with impressive depth and spin (2,400-2,600 rpm) and a mid-80s changeup that’s thrown with fastball arm speed. That loud stuff did come with some inconsistencies that scouts hadn’t previously seen from him as an underclassman, and throughout the 2022 spring he was largely the same pitcher—good pure stuff, but scattered and inconsistent command from outing to outing. Many scouts believe Ferris’ complicated, contorting delivery is simultaneously a boon for his deception and a burden for overall consistency. There’s tilt and drift during Ferris’ leg lift, with plenty of length and hooking action in the back of his arm slot, and then finally a crossfiring lower half in his landing. He’s not always on time with his release at foot strike and many in the industry believe he’ll need to clean up some of those moving parts to make the most out of his obvious arm talent. Ferris is committed to Mississippi but has plenty of interest among the top two rounds.
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Diamond is in the transfer portal so he isnt coming back thank goodness
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Cubs did the same thing the Bulls did, grab a guy later who a lot of rankings had higher than their first round pick.
If they can sign Ferris - which would seem to be depend on Horton going a million or so under slot - it's a worthwhile gamble. He reminds me of Herz a little - very hard to hit but with a funky delivery that calls into question whether his command and control will allow him to stick in the rotation.
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Don’t worry about Ole Miss. Derek Diamond will be back!
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Then Twins go right after and grab Prielipp.
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NOOOOOO. I wanted ferris to come to ole miss and win another one. I heard his signing about is 3 mi. has anyone else heard that?
If it is you and Dave will be happy, because he'll be a Bulldog next season.
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NOOOOOO. I wanted ferris to come to ole miss and win another one. I heard his signing about is 3 mi. has anyone else heard that?
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Mixed feelings…he’s an Ole Miss commit…lol
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Well, that implies they think they can go underslot with Horton.
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Save Ferris!
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Tanner is still on the board, we certainly need catchers.
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i was going to say peyton also think he will be good when fills out
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Peyton Graham would be a nice pick if we went position player…
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Conner Prielipp would be fun. Carson Whisenhunt got an MLB pipeline comp to Wicks.
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so who do you think we will take with our next pick.
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That will never take the place of Slippery Rock Teachers College.
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Disappointing that there wasn't a player from Little Rock Bible College worth gam bling on this year.
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I wasn't dumping on the pick. In my opinion, the Cubs drafts have gotten better each year since 2019, and I have no reason to think that I have more information about the draft than the Cubs Front Office has.
That being said, I would have taken Cam Collier.
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I would have liked a hitter, but people dumping on the pick are jumping the gun.
Horton’s fastball has characteristics that the Indians have prioritized in drafting. The slider is nasty and is relatively new and the Cubs might be able to improve on it. They have been able to teach guys a Vulcan change up and while he didn’t use it much his current change up showed some decent characteristics.
Let’s see what the rest of draft looks like.
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yea I dont like the move just what I am hoping they are doing now that the pick was made
Horton probably won't go much under slot, if at all, since he has an extra year of eligibly left. But it's hard to imagine the Cubs making this pick unless they thought they could get him under slot. Very odd.
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yea I dont like the move just what I am hoping they are doing now that the pick was made
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Heh, even BN having trouble getting into their usual dlck-riding mode over this pick. I'm sure by tomorrow Bert will have "come around" and started calling it the steal of the draft.
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maybe going sub slot with our first pick to reach with our second pick
We'll find out, but I don't think drafting in that spot was the time to play that game. Lee seems like a no-brainer there. But hey, maybe they were down on him for whatever reason. Collier? Parada?
On the plus side, we're likely to have multiple chances at high draft picks in the next few years.
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Cade Horton as a kid...
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maybe going sub slot with our first pick to reach with our second pick
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Hard to believe they passed on Lee for Horton, honestly. An intriguing talent but taking a two-pitch guy with a limited track record of success considering the guys that were on the board there seems like a reach.
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I hope we get Ben Joyce at #47.
If the Cubs take another reliever round Kantrovitz should be fired.
Kiley McDaniel linked them to Careen Whisenhunt in the second round.
Horton has some really good slider and fastball traits.
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We bitch about not having pitching and then bitch about getting the best college pitcher in the draft.
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at the 7th pick would have like something less risky but then the draft is always a risk
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Risk adverse [sic] teams lose - a lot.
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I am risk adverse. This seems like a ton of risk for #7 overall.
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Reports are that the Rockies were taking him at #10 if he was on the board…
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Horton has risen from a injury-recovering reliever to a dominant starter in just a few months. I believe that sometimes you can hit gold by picking someone like that. I also believed that when they picked Hayden Simpson. And Branden Little.
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Law on Horton:
Nobody raised his stock in the last month of the amateur season than Cade Horton, who changed the shape of his breaking ball and went on a tear in the postseason with a two-pitch combo. He missed 2021 with Tommy John surgery, and is primarily a two-pitch guy with limited experience as a starter – he was a two-way guy, playing short and pitching in relief, until moving into Oklahoma’s rotation partway through this season. He could be just a very late bloomer, or this could be recency bias, favoring what we saw in the last six weeks over everything that came before. Horton is also a draft-eligible sophomore, giving him a lot of leverage to ask for a top-10 bonus, although I’m sure the Cubs will meet it.
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Ha!
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LOL! Contreras for Parada! Make it happen!
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Collier still hasnt been picked.
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Tough to be upset about a potential #2 starter from the college ranks.
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Horton was mocked 9, 10, 13, 13 by McDaniel, Law, BA, Callis.
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He was f’ing electric against Ole Miss in the CWS.
I’m stunned, but I’m not upset with the pick…at all…
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Callis says the Cubs got "the best college pitcher in the draft."
He also said there was a lot of "helium" about Cade Horton and Callis thought he might go 7 to 11.
We definitely need pitching, so I'm on board! Sure hope they can develop him into something special!
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if they are saving some money to over slot someone who would be a person they might be looking at with the next pick.
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I hope we get Ben Joyce at #47.
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Disappointed they didn’t take Parada. Horton had a lot helium going into the draft.
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I wish we would have taken someone else. there was quality there.
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Well. Ok.
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That pisses me off. Better be underslot but guessing it won’t be.
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Good pick.
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Its Horton.
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If the Cubs are the Cubs of old they will take none of those 4 and will select someone that will infuriate me.
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Cubs are up. Having both Berry and Kumar Rocker go off before Cubs pick wasn't assumed in all previews, I'm guessing.
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Cubs have their choice of Lee, Parada, Collier, and Neto.
This should be interesting.
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Could it be Collier?
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Kumar Rocker at #3?
Cubs up in 2 picks.
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It takes a huge d o u c h e b a g to make Roger Goodell look like a good guy.
Well done, Rob.
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Johnson from the HS ranks, Lee from college. I'd take Lee for sure if it weren't for the injury history. I might do it anyway.
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I'd be happy with Parada or Lee. What about you JeffH?
Dreaming, I wish Dylan Lesko had not had TJ and would have been available at #7 (tho' Cubs and other clubs may one day regret not taking him early anyway).
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It seems like Jones and Holliday are the ones that never get to 7 in any mock draft.
Setting those guys aside, who's your preferred choice?
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The future…