Bleacher Bums Forum
General Category => Archives => Topic started by: Dave23 on November 04, 2014, 02:51:52 pm
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brought to you by the #1 farm system in MLB...
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I guess we needed a Dan Vogelbach/Left Field free version of On The Farm, haha.
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Vogelbach: 2-4, 2B, 3 RBI
Pineyro: 1-1-0-0-0-2
http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2014_11_04_msswin_srrwin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119
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Anyone see the Baseball Prospectus write up on Vogelbach last week? Sure would be nice if his scouted-power would occasionally show up in a game. Maybe in Tennessee this year.
From BP:
"He walked four times in this game but seemed generally disgusted by the notion, as though he wasn’t happy about not getting to hit but cognizant that it’s better than chasing bad pitches and getting out. Vogelbach clearly wants to hit, as it’s the only thing he does well on a baseball field, and he attacks hittable pitches when he gets them."
"His raw power is legitimate and is a true plus tool, and combining it with an above-average hit tool and good plate discipline should make for a solid everyday hitter. He may never suit up for the Cubs, with first base blocked by Anthony Rizzo and even that being a stretch of Vogelbach’s talents with a glove, but he’s going to give some American League team a solid DH for 5-7 years in his prime and should be one of the main pieces the Cubs use when they ultimately decide to trade for pitching help"
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Did you hear Harold Reynolds shilling for the NL style of play during the WS? He said he played his career in the AL, but being able to see the NL regularly he now favors the NL. Motivation? Word is the new commissioner doesn't like the DH, and certainly doesn't like the DH in one league over the other. Word also is that he would like to do away with it, which surprises me since AL people love it. To get rid of it, MLB would have to satisfy the union somehow, maybe with another roster spot. Just reporting. Don't shoot the messenger.
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Don't worry, Curt. There are so many reasons to shoot you, being a messanger wouldn't add much.
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I find it hard to believe that in an era of falling offense, they are going to want to take away more offense. I love 1-0 games, but I think the public would prefer more offense.
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Did you hear Harold Reynolds shilling for the NL style of play during the WS? He said he played his career in the AL, but being able to see the NL regularly he now favors the NL. Motivation? Word is the new commissioner doesn't like the DH, and certainly doesn't like the DH in one league over the other. Word also is that he would like to do away with it, which surprises me since AL people love it. To get rid of it, MLB would have to satisfy the union somehow, maybe with another roster spot. Just reporting. Don't shoot the messenger.
That would be downright shocking.
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I was trying to point out btw that a dh only player may have little value in the future.
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Rademacher: 1-2, 2 SF, 2 RBI, BB
Vogelbach: 2-4, BB
Edwards: 2-2-1-1-2-4
http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2014_11_05_gddwin_msswin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119
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Callis has a short write up on Edwards. He sat 91-94, topped at 97 with late cutting action. His curve was his best pitch, he had a mid 80's slider/change up/splitter that didn't move much. He was missing down and away with his fastball.
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A fan was about to buy a bat for $850 that had supposedly been used by Kris Bryant in a game. He tweeted Kris Bryant to confirm that it was authentic. Bryant told him he shouldn't have to pay $850 and sent him a signed bat for free.
http://wapc.mlb.com/cutfour/2014/11/06/100745146/how-chicago-cubs-prospect-kris-bryant-saved-one-of-his-fans-850?adbid=530516778380967936&adbpl=tw&adbpr=544620720&partnerId=as_mlb_20141107_35172807 (http://wapc.mlb.com/cutfour/2014/11/06/100745146/how-chicago-cubs-prospect-kris-bryant-saved-one-of-his-fans-850?adbid=530516778380967936&adbpl=tw&adbpr=544620720&partnerId=as_mlb_20141107_35172807)
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That is really cool
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Hannemann: 1-3, BB
http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2014_11_06_msswin_srrwin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119
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Hannemann: 1-2, 2 BB, SB
Vogelbach: 1-3, BB, K
Pineyro: 3-2-0-0-0-3
Concepcion: 3-1-0-0-0-1
Cates: 1-1-1-1-1-2
http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2014_11_07_surwin_msswin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119
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Hannemann has really turned it on lately. His AFL numbers look good.
I know that guys get hot and guys get cold, and neither lasts forever. But I'm super gullible and optimistic. So for a guy like Hannemann who's played so little, a little hot streak still makes me hope that he's figured something out that will last. That he'll maybe be a good major league hitter, even though he was only a .682 guy in A-ball at age 23. Would be really fun if a guy like that exploded and emerged as a solid .290-hitter with a .350-OBP and good CF defense.
I assume with Almora in tennessee they'll repeat Hannemann at Daytona this year.
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Apparently things have been going so well for the franchise lately that no one even bothered to mention that Vitters was released.
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Perhaps a distinction without a difference, but I believe he became a 6 year free agent.
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That top 5 pick didnt work out.
Wasnt he supposed to be the best bat in that draft?
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Yep. Many high draft picks fail.
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Vitters over Wieters. Genius.
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Starling Peralta signed a minor league successor contract with Cubs, passing up free agency. He will be eligible for the Rule 5.
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Vitters over Wieters. Genius.
Not sure it's any consolation, but it wasn't a scouting assessment. Wieters got a $6.0 bonus---more than the #1 pick David Price ($5.6). Cubs ownership at the time didn't want to pay the bonus Wieters demanded. Vitters signed for $3.2.
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Ownership was diverting money away from the draft into free agency to juice attendance to increase the selling price. I believe the rumor was that KC was going to take Vitters and the Cubs would have taken Jarred Parker instead. KC switched to Moustakis at some point near the draft and the Cubs went with the hitter over the pitcher.
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Royals switched to Moustakis morning of draft day.
Yeah, Parker would have been the pick, but Parker would have been a headache now with two TJ surgeries.
By the way, Wieters is a pending post-2015 FA.
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Just looked at Vogelbach's stats.
His first full season after the draft was 2012.
2012 AZL/Boise 1.051 OPS/.641 slg
2013 KC/Daytona .824/.449 (90% the season was in KC, but he actually did better for Daytona -- .895 to .824)
2014 Daytona .787/.429
2014 AFL .697/.300 in 60 AB
Not a good trendline.
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Two uniques for Parker, that I doubt apply to anybody else:
1. Parker was ranked by BA as a top-50 prospect for five straight years, without ever cracking the top 25.
2. He was #36 going into 2010, missed the whole season..... and moved up to BA's #33 spot entering 2011.
Also flukey is that he's had six seasons in which he pitched >4 games in a league. His ERA has been in the 3's every single time.
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Agree, jes. What gets me particularly is the slugging. No slug = no succeed.
Hopefully we'll see a rebound this year. As JR has said, going from anti-HR FSL to pro-HR Tennessee could boost his numbers quite a bit. I'd also imagine/hope/expect that either Vogelbach or somebody in the Cub coaching are aware that he's not going to have either Cub-value or trade-value if he doesn't slug a lot more. Probably it's just beyond his talents to do so, and that's it. But when some of these other scouts still seem to think he's got this 60-slugging rating, maybe there still is some latent slugging potential, and perhaps some adjustment or change in confidence will help find it? We're fans, why not hope so.
The one adjustment I'd think might work would be to simply be more aggressive. In other words, hack more and hack earlier. He's been a better than 2BB/3K guy at every step, which is pretty unusual. His best (only?) standout skill thus far, really, has been his high-walk rate, and that's been true again in AFL. It's pretty impressive, really. Given that BB/K rate, I wonder if he might not be able to make some of five adjustments:
1. Swing more aggressively early in counts. Don't take so many pitch-ones, which is often the most hittable pitch and often where you see more fastballs. That will surely come at the expense of reduced walks, no question. But, the K's will also drop some to offset that, and if you get more HR hits the OBP may dwindle little and the slugging may rise substantially? And who knows, perhaps with more slugging you'll get more respect walks anyway...
2. Just swing for the fences more. A little more leg kick, a little longer swing, a little earlier commitment to the weight shift needed for long balls. Given his very controlled K-rate, he's got space to make some compromises without going K-crazy dead. If he compromises some on his K's, but gets enough more HR's, it's worth it.
3. Guess more? Baez usually guesses wrong and often misses even when he guesses right, but he's guessed right enough to slug his way to the majors. Perhaps Vogelbach should guess more often and take bigger long-ball swings on his guesses. Obviously you'll K more that way, but again he can afford to K-more.
4. Adjust swing plane slightly in the uppercut direction? Bryant and Schwarber had GO/AO ratios between 0.6-0.7, and when Soler was killing AA he was below 0.7 too. (He grounded out a lot once he got to Iowa and Chicago, though...) Not sure how you adjust a swing path slightly, but if there is some possible adjustment that could give Vogelbach a little more lift and get fly balls, that might help him. With his lack of speed, I'm sure infielders can play super deep on him, and that he may cost a lot of stats-invisible outs via hitting into DP's. So ground balls can't be his friend.
5. Intentionally try to pull more? Opposite-field power is great, and he's got at least some. But a lot of long balls come via pulling. Not sure how that would work. He just decides to try? Commit his swing a hair earlier, at risk of more bad swings? Shifts his stance by a couple degrees so his feet are slightly more likely to step-in-the-bucket? Move an inch or two closer to the plate? I don't know.
My understanding is that he has kind of tried some of these things, without success. I think a story was that early last spring, he WAS trying to pull and swing for the fences, with no success. Maybe that means he's got no chance; but maybe he overdid it, or just didn't stick with it long enough, or maybe that was a myth.
Certainly most hitters are constantly looking for adjustments that give them more success. Who has more invested and gives more thought than the hitter himself? So in most cases, I think hitters really have pretty much self-optimized their game and stance and approach and swing plane and all that stuff. Probably Vogelbach has done so, too, and has found that any of my stupid simplistic notions make him worse.
But somehow, someway, the slugging needs to trend back up or his career isn't going big-league.
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Lifted this from Cubs Den--Kris Bryant 2014 spray chart. Helps explain how Bryant hits for average while striking out a lot.
http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/files/2014/11/bryant-spray-chart.png
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Not exactly a pull hitter there, at least not when he puts it in the air. Quite encouraging.
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Wow.
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very interesting indeed
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Hannemann: 3-4, 2B
http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2014_11_10_msswin_gddwin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119
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Hannemann is now in the top 10 in OPS and batting average, and close in OBP. AFL doesn't seem to have quite the massive hitting numbers from some years back.
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Hannemann: 0-4
Vogelbach: 2-4
http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2014_11_11_surwin_msswin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119
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Hannemann is now in the top 10 in OPS and batting average, and close in OBP. AFL doesn't seem to have quite the massive hitting numbers from some years back.
Hannemann: 0-4
Seriously, Craig?
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What goes up, must come down
Spinning wheel got to go round
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Your voodoo is getting stronger.
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But at least he's not jinxing Vogelbach lately.
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But at least he's not jinxing Vogelbach lately.
Don't give him any ideas.
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Rademacher: 2-4, HR, 4 RBI, BB
Edwards: 3-1-0-0-1-2
Concepcion: 1-3-2-2-2-0
Cates: 1-2-0-0-0-0
http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2014_11_12_perwin_msswin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119
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Rademacher Rakes!!
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And his popcorn is really good.
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AFL season ends.
Vogelbach: 1-5, 2B, RBI, BB
Hannemann: 0-5, K
Rademacher: 0-1, BB
Pineyro: 2-0-0-0-0-3, ( 13-2/3 IP, 11 H, 4 BB, 16 K, 1.98 ERA)
http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2014_11_13_gddwin_msswin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119
CJ Edwards: 15 IP, 8 H, 8 BB, 13 K, 1.80 ERA, .154 BAA
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Schwarber on crushing things and on working with Russell Martin (not that anybody is getting ahead of things).
http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs/cubs-kyle-schwarber-would-love-work-russell-martin
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Hey, Dave, do you ever talk with your friend the scout anymore?
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AFL season ends.
http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2014_11_13_gddwin_msswin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119
I just noticed that one of the players on the Solar Sox is Dwight Smith, Jr., son of the former Cub. Smith the younger is 22, playing LF in the Toronto farm system. http://www.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=l119&t=p_pbp&pid=596105
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Baseball Prospectus top 10 prospects:
1. Addison Russell
2. Kris Bryant
3. Jorge Soler
4. Albert Almora
5. Kyle Schwarber
6. Billy McKinney
7. Pierce Johnson
8. Gleyber Torres
9. Dan Vogelbach
10. Carson Sands
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25046
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BP's top ten Cubs prospects has Russell number 1 and CJ Edwards is not on the list.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25046
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It also ranks Almora ahead of Schearber.
Great list.
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Baseball Prospectus top 10 prospects:
1. Addison Russell
2. Kris Bryant
3. Jorge Soler
4. Albert Almora
5. Kyle Schwarber
6. Billy McKinney
7. Pierce Johnson
8. Gleyber Torres
9. Dan Vogelbach
10. Carson Sands
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25046 (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25046)
I've got to say that lists like this undermine the credibility of sites like Baseball Prospectus. It's surprising to see Almora ranked as highly as he is, particularly ahead of Schwarber. But Dan Vogelbach rated higher than C.J. Edwards? Seriously?
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Honestly, Ron, I don't think it undermines their credibility -- Baseball Prospects is sort of what they do, right? Though ranking Russell #1 and dropping Edwards out does smell a little bit like click-bait. So maybe that does hit at their credibility. Anyhow, it's fun to see an outsider's view.
Apparently some BP guys also released a podcast about the rankings, and the concerns are with Edwards health and that they project him as a reliever.
their top guys under 25 in the organization list is interesting too (Baez over Soler?):
Anthony Rizzo
Starlin Castro
Addison Russell
Kris Bryant
Javier Baez
Jorge Soler
Arismendy Alcantara
Albert Almora
Kyle Hendricks
Neil Ramirez
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Bryant is the consensus #1 in baseball. Putting anyone ahead of him weakens the cred.
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Agreed Curt.
Edwards should not only be on the list but in the top 5.
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Hey, Dave, do you ever talk with your friend the scout anymore?
He retired several years ago, but still lives in Mesa. I talk with him quite often.
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Bryant is the consensus #1 in baseball. Putting anyone ahead of him weakens the cred.
It looks like they give a lot of weight to those who have already performed at a high level in the majors, so it makes sense that they put Rizzo and Castro at the top. The only thing I can think of for Bryant is that they might think his defense will mitigate his offensive value a little.
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On twitter BP explained the rankings.
Edwards is viewed only as a relief pitcher, so that downgraded him.
Schwerber isn't viewed as being able to stick at catcher, so he is a bat only prospect.
Still high on Almora and the think his bat will rebound and still have plus D in CF.
Gorosch who saw most of the low A games for BP, thinks Tseng is the pitcher in the system.
Russell over Bryant because of defensive value.
Interesting list to be sure. I have to wonder how much influence Parks had on the list.
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Listening to the Baseball Prospectus podcast now. They sure are high on Addison Russell. Hope they are right. They did say that Bryant started out as the #1 guy but after more thought they decided to go with Russell - but close case. They said that Russell could be the #1 prospect in all of baseball.
Interestingly, they believe that if he outgrows SS, he would likely develop the power necessary for 3B. If it's true that Russell has a higher ceiling than Bryant (a big if), and his growth moves him off of middle infield, presumably that's a scenario in which he could push Bryant off 3B and into the OF.
They think that when Russell moves to the major leagues, he is likely to have an easier transition than guys like Baez, Alcantara, Soler, and even Bryant (due to his longer swing and higher swing and miss). They noted that Soler struggled quite a bit in the last 20+ games in the major leagues. They do expect Bryant to make the transition better than the three guys who came up this season.
On Kyle Schwarber and Albert Almora: They consider Schwarber in a second tier, with Almora in first tier because he is an "impact up the middle player," impact baserunner who "is going to hit", with potential to grow into plus power.
On Schwarber: "more one dimensional, ability to hit for average, good plate coverage, really sound, mature approach, plus or better raw pop," who will be "a useful bat regardless of where he slots." They said "odds are he's not a 100 game a year catcher, maybe a 50 game a year catcher" who will be "a pretty good bat, #5 or #6 bat in a lineup."
They compared that unfavorably to "Almora's ceiling ... "a #1 or #2 bat in the order who is going to hit for average, hit for power and give you big value on the defensive side and on the bases."
"The key for Schwarber is going to be how much is the power going to play in games and where's the value ultimately going to come defensively." For Schwarber able to become all-star depends on something extra happening ... such as him improving a lot as catcher. "Not the staple of the lineup, but a really important piece. A really good complementary member on a championship team. Could afford to have him play 1B with guys like Russell and Almora in the lineup."
It seemed to me that they were comparing Almora's ceiling to a more conservative assessment of Schwarber's likely trajectory. They were clearly not bothered by Almora's disappointing season, nor his lack of walks or demonstrated power. But they considered Schwarber's mediocre catching abilities a major issue (even though he hadn't had the advantage of proper training at that point).
Possible future major prospects mentioned: Gleyber Torres, Sands, Steele, Stinnett, Zagunis, Underwood. Tseng not mentioned for some reason. Cubs could still be in the top four or five organizations even if graduate two top prospects (Russell and Bryant).
Highly impressed with developmental approach to players, finding strengths in player's profile and drawing those strengths out, regardless of what they initially saw. Similar to what the Cardinals do.
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It looks like they give a lot of weight to those who have already performed at a high level in the majors, so it makes sense that they put Rizzo and Castro at the top. The only thing I can think of for Bryant is that they might think his defense will mitigate his offensive value a little.
Wrong list, Dave.
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Thanks for the podcast notes, Ron.
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Yeah, thanks for all the transcription, Ron.
Wonder what makes them think Almora is going to hit for power. That seems to be a complete stab in the dark guess.
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I suppose the term "hit for power" is rather subjective. I have seen scouting reports that project eventual 20 HR power. For a Gold Glove CF, they might consider that to be power.
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Heck, I was intrigued by their apparently high degree of confidence that Almora will be a good #1 or #2 hitter at the major league level. I've had high hopes for Almora myself (at least until this last season), but I confess to being mystified by their lack of skepticism about any aspect of his game. I sure hope they are right about him (and wrong about Schwarber).
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If there is one critical key to the future lineup, it's whether Almora can lock down CF.
Say three times: up-the-middle, up-the-middle, up-the-middle. These guys are gold and Almora is the only true, plus defensive CFer in the organization. So, if he hits, it's huge. If he doesn't, will have to scramble at a very important position.
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I was especially pleased to read that bit about Almora in the write-up.
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Hard not to think about Evan Gattis in relation to Schwarber.
Gattis is a 125 OPS+ catcher and you want like crazy to have an offensive catcher like that.
But, as Braves are realizing, very difficult to tolerate a guy "who can catch" in comparison to a guy who is a really good defensive catcher--a true catcher.
Way, way premature to know what Schwarber can do as a catcher but the Gattis analogy shows that very tough to carry an offensive catcher who just isn't very good defensively.
Piazza comes up when discussing offensive catchers but Piazza was miles better than Gattis defensively...and he was arguably the greatest offensive catcher of all-time. Hah, hope Schwarber is a Piazza comp there and we won't worry too much that he isn't Pudge defensively.
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I have a good feeling about Almora. He doesn't have to be that much of a stud offensively to be valuable.
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Next season is going to be a really important one for Almora. It would be wonderful if it's a breakout season. Of course it's going to be a kinda important one for Baez, Alcantara, Soler, Bryant, Russell, and a number of the young pitchers as well.
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They noted that Soler struggled quite a bit in the last 20+ games in the major leagues.
Soler only PLAYED in 24 games in the major leagues. He had an overall line of .292/.330/.573/.903. In his last 20 game he had a line of .243/.284/.432/.716.
It seemed to me that they were comparing Almora's ceiling to a more conservative assessment of Schwarber's likely trajectory. They were clearly not bothered by Almora's disappointing season, nor his lack of walks or demonstrated power. But they considered Schwarber's mediocre catching abilities a major issue (even though he hadn't had the advantage of proper training at that point).
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In other words, they don't really know what they were talking about.
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MLB.com Pipeline has adjusted their Cubs top 20 prospects in light of the Vizcaino trade, as Vizcaino was formerly in top 20.
By the way, Vizcaino shoots up to #4 prospect in Braves system.
Most will be surprised who is now Cubs #20 prospect in this survey.
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2014/#list=chc
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La Stella was Braves #9 prospect before 2014 season.
Here's the entry:
Background: La Stella transferred from St. John’s to Coastal Carolina and emerged as a second-team All-American and the Big South Conference player of the year in 2011. Injuries slowed him in 2012 before La Stella put together an impressive season in the Double-A Southern League, where he was ranked as the circuit’s No. 16 prospect
Scouting Report: La Stella has hit at every level thanks to great hand-eye coordination and above-average bat speed. He has an excellent approach and exceptional feel for the strike zone, which helps him rack up more walks than strikeouts. La Stella also shines as a situational hitter with his ability to advance runners via the hit-and-run or by bunting. He runs the bases well and with intelligence despite not being blessed with great quick-twitch athleticism. Defensively, he makes all of the routine plays at the keystone and has an average arm. Nagging injuries, including an elbow issue this season, have kept him from playing even 100 games in a season.
The Future: Braves fans are begging for La Stella to get an opportunity to unseat Dan Uggla at second base. Finances could play a role, but his bat appears to be near big league ready if needed.
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http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/12/7/7351045/chicago-cubs-top-20-prospects-for-2015
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Thanks Dusty...good read!
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Cubs signed Yovanny Ceuvas, 16 year old OF, out of the IPL.
Here's a link to his stats or lack there of, they aren't helpful
http://www.iplbaseball.com/Player/yovanny-cuevas
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http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/astros-nix-reach-grievance-settlement/
Jacob Nix, Houston draftee, gets $1.5 settlement. The note doesn't detail, but presumably it's a grievance settlement rather than a contract. So Houston doesn't violate the draft cap and get doesn't get penalized for going over the draft limit. Had the "contract" been enforced, it would really have killed them. But neither do they get Nix's services.
Would seem to be a win-win outcome overall for Nix. He gets the $1.5 million he wanted, plus he presumably gets another shot to return to the draft and get additional million(s). So he can double his money. And perhaps end up in a less dysfunctional organization besides.
Personal thought: Houston just lost, lost, and lost in this whole deal. They lost the players, they lost a bunch of money, they lost a lot of face/reputation, and they were perhaps at risk of losing additional penalty picks future, even is that didn't actually happen. Two possible stories:
1. The common view has been that they tried to trick the system, tried to take advantage of Aiken, and their sins found them out and came back to punish them.
2. The alternate story is that they assumed their Aiken deal was good and done; were careless/hasty in advancing Nix until Aiken had cleared; and then they were double-diced when they both got the terrible news on the Aiken physical, and realized they'd gone way too far with Nix. Lose, lose, lose.
I've always thought story 2, incompetent dumb mistake and sincere concern about Aiken's health prospect, had Occam's Razor and had better explanatory power. If they were just using the elbow as an pretense, even though they weren't really concerned about it's impact on his pitching future, I don't imagine they'd have carried things to the disastrous wall.
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It will be interesting to see where Aiken goes in the draft. If he goes top 5 the elbow concern was likely a sham and the just wanted to drive down his price to get Mac Marshall along with Aiken and Nix. It is interesting that Aiken, Nix, and Marshall are all going the juco route, so they should all get drafted next year.
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I think that if he doesn't go first (or perhaps second) in the draft, it is because teams take the health problem seriously. He was quite clearly the top player in the draft this year, and should not lose any standing in next year's draft unless some teams are scared off by the health reports.
Assuming, of course, that he pitches as well this year as he did last year.
Even some top prospects who actually HAD surgery still go in the 10 to 20 range. For Aiken even to go 4th or 5th, I would think that teams actually take the physical concerns seriously.
I agree with Craig. I think that the problems were due more to the incompetency of Houston management, rather than to their greed. They never should have made that kind of offer to Nix until they were certain that Aiken would sign for their offered amount.
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As to Nix, too bad Astros didn't lose draft picks. Had they gone through the arbitration process to its conclusion, without a settlement, arbitrator may well have enforced the Nix contract and the cba's provisions re. loss of draft picks.
But, via settlement, Nix gets his bonus money and will get another round of bonus money when he goes back into the draft again and doesn't have to play for Astros--he's happy. Astros get to pay Cash Considerations to Nix and don't lose draft picks--they're happy. Union gets the remedy that the player wanted--and probably doesn't care much about draft pick losses for the club--so Union is happy. MLB office is happy for the whole thing to go away, they're happy.
Only guy not too happy is Aiken. Not entirely clear whether time limits have been waived for him to file a grievance in near future on his own behalf. Different factual situation than Nix situation but presumably he just goes back into the draft next year and that's that. Hope he doesn't get hurt in the interim. Cubs probably won too many games to get a shot at him in 2015 draft.
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I think that if he doesn't go first (or perhaps second) in the draft,
The Astros have the 2nd and 5th picks in the draft, the chance that Aiken lets them pick him again have to be almost zero. It is tough to tell the rankings this far out, but Brandan Rogers seems to be the #1 guy so far.
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Sorry. I assumed that you were excluding the Astro's picks. If I remember right, according to draft rules, they would have to have Aiken's permission to pick him a second time.
But assuming his performance (and scouting report) is equal to that when he was in high school, I would assume that he will be picked 6 through 10 (actual picks) even if teams agree with the Astro's assessments, and third or 4th at the worst if they disagree with the Astro's assessments of the medical risks.
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http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/astros-nix-reach-grievance-settlement/
Jacob Nix, Houston draftee, gets $1.5 settlement. The note doesn't detail, but presumably it's a grievance settlement rather than a contract. So Houston doesn't violate the draft cap and get doesn't get penalized for going over the draft limit. Had the "contract" been enforced, it would really have killed them. But neither do they get Nix's services.
Would seem to be a win-win outcome overall for Nix. He gets the $1.5 million he wanted, plus he presumably gets another shot to return to the draft and get additional million(s). So he can double his money. And perhaps end up in a less dysfunctional organization besides.
Personal thought: Houston just lost, lost, and lost in this whole deal. They lost the players, they lost a bunch of money, they lost a lot of face/reputation, and they were perhaps at risk of losing additional penalty picks future, even is that didn't actually happen. Two possible stories:
1. The common view has been that they tried to trick the system, tried to take advantage of Aiken, and their sins found them out and came back to punish them.
2. The alternate story is that they assumed their Aiken deal was good and done; were careless/hasty in advancing Nix until Aiken had cleared; and then they were double-diced when they both got the terrible news on the Aiken physical, and realized they'd gone way too far with Nix. Lose, lose, lose.
I've always thought story 2, incompetent dumb mistake and sincere concern about Aiken's health prospect, had Occam's Razor and had better explanatory power. If they were just using the elbow as an pretense, even though they weren't really concerned about it's impact on his pitching future, I don't imagine they'd have carried things to the disastrous wall.
Where did you get that the settlement was for the full $1.5M? Certainly not from the link you posted where it says:
Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported the Astros and Nix had reached a monetary settlement, though a size of the payout was not reported.
I'm not saying definitely he didn't get the full amount but no one else is reporting he received $1.5M as a settlement. So did you mis-read the article or do you have another source you can link to that verifies the settlement amount?
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I think that if he doesn't go first (or perhaps second) in the draft, it is because teams take the health problem seriously. He was quite clearly the top player in the draft this year, and should not lose any standing in next year's draft unless some teams are scared off by the health reports.
Assuming, of course, that he pitches as well this year as he did last year.
Even some top prospects who actually HAD surgery still go in the 10 to 20 range. For Aiken even to go 4th or 5th, I would think that teams actually take the physical concerns seriously.
If he goes 4th or 5th, that might indicate that 3 or four teams took the concerns seriously. It would also indicate that at least one team, the team taking him 4th or 5th, did not.
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Isn't that what I said?
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Not at all.
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That seems like the Astros gaming the system, honestly.
Either they broke a contract with Nix or they didn't. If they did, they should be penalized by MLB. If they didn't, there's no reason to settle for the contract value Nix was going to get.
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Peter Gammons tweeted the $1.5 million figure the other day.
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I think they should have been penalized. Beyond what circumstance has dictated.
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John Manuel @johnmanuelba 1h1 hour ago
Trying to line up #Cubs top 30, I knew system was heavy with potential star power, but also impressed by depth. Actually 30 legit prospects
John Manuel @johnmanuelba 1h1 hour ago
Doen't mean all 30 guys will be big leaguers or that I'll rank 'em right. But org has many, many options/trade pieces.
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Thanks, Ron. That's encouraging, again.
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http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/01/minor-moves-dae-eun-rhee.html
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http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/01/minor-moves-dae-eun-rhee.html (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/01/minor-moves-dae-eun-rhee.html)
Good for him that he got a pretty nice contract for someone who kind of became a non-descript prospect after all of his injuries. Just too bad he couldn't ever stay healthy.
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BA's Top 10 Prospects . . .
1. Kris Bryant, 3b
2. Addison Russell, ss
3. Jorge Soler, of
4. Kyle Schwarber, c/of
5. C.J. Edwards, rhp
6. Billy McKinney, of
7. Albert Almora, of
8. Gleyber Torres, ss
9. Pierce Johnson, rhp
10. Duane Underwood, rhp
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Not much to argue with there.
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Thanks, JR. Interestings:
1. they've got McKinney ahead of Almora, I suppose reflects the valuation of hitting.
2. Torres at #8. Pretty high for a very young guy in a very strong, deep system
3. Underwood ahead of Tseng.
4. Johnson, Underwood, and Tseng all behind a distant position guy like Gleyber.
5. Soler mashed AA and AAA, did very well in majors, and has reasonable contact and discipline skills so that he doesn't seem to have a high failure risk. Interesting that a guy who's already shown very well, has a ton of potential, and has limited risk, is still "only" #3.
I imagine some chat question will ask. But I'd be curious where they'd put Baez if he were still eligible. Or Alcantara.
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Of all the evaluators, BA places the most emphasis and value on "tools", and the least on performance.
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I'm telling you, McKinney is a keeper. And I too am surprised that Torres is listed as high on this list as he is.
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I'm telling you, McKinney is a keeper. And I too am surprised that Torres is listed as high on this list as he is.
I'll post some of the scouting reports when I get time, but I thought the McKinney scouting report was kind of interesting and seemed pretty consistent with what I saw of him in the Daytona game I attended this past year.
Background: The Cubs were stunned they were able to pry both Addison Russell and McKinney, the Athletics’ top two prospects, away in the Jeff Samardzija/Jason Hammel trade. Signed in 2013 for $1.8 million, McKinney jumped to high Class A for his first full season and hit better in the high Class A Florida State League after the trade than in the offense-first California League.
Scouting Report: It’s all about the approach with McKinney, a polished hitter who is quiet in the box, with a balanced setup and good hands. He’ll bar his swing at times but generally has as smooth path to the ball and isn’t afraid to hit with two strikes, or to use the whole field. McKinney’s pitch recognition and situational hitting skills are other plusses, leading some evaluators to believe he may wind up with average or a tick above home run production eventually. A sore shoulder limited McKinney to DH duty down the stretch, and his fringy arm strength limits him to left or center field anyway. He’s an average runner.
The Future: McKinney isn’t a profile left fielder, but his Todd Hollandsworth/Rusty Greer skillset blends well with the rest of the Cubs’ aggressive, powerful bats. He’s headed to Double-A as a 20-year-old in 2015.
It looked to me at the time that McKinney isn't a guy who's going to become a 30+ home run bomber or be a really athletic 5-tool guy who will be a plus runner or play center in the majors, and this scouting report seems to bear that out. Todd Hollandsworth would be a pretty underwhelming result for him, although I can see where they make the comparison. Rusty Greer in his peak seasons would be a much better result.
That's not to say McKinney isn't a keeper, but I'm not sure he's a guy who's going to blossom into a Bryant/Baez/Schwarber/Soler impact player either.
He might be a guy where we ought to be willing to include him in a trade for an impact major leaguer if/when the time is right.
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In the Cubs chat accompanying the rankings, John Manuel says Cubs #11-20 ranked prospects are the best #11-20 ranked prospects of any organization.
That's aside from the top 10 guys.
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All the more reason we should be able to afford to trade someone like McKinney.
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Of all the evaluators, BA places the most emphasis and value on "tools", and the least on performance.
BA ranked McKinney just ahead of Almora even though Almora has higher upside. McKinney with superior offensive approach but Almora riskier.
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Neither Almora or McKinney are "tools" players, in the way that Bryant or Baez are. But BA placed Underwood and his fastball ahead of Tseng and his control (and performance). Hendricks never made it far on their list, in spite of performance.
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That's not to say McKinney isn't a keeper, but I'm not sure he's a guy who's going to blossom into a Bryant/Baez/Schwarber/Soler impact player either.
I'm not sure those four are all going to be impact players. Nor do I think the Theocracy is.
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Neither Almora or McKinney are "tools" players, in the way that Bryant or Baez are. But BA placed Underwood and his fastball ahead of Tseng and his control (and performance). Hendricks never made it far on their list, in spite of performance.
Think it should be possible evaluate Almora and McKinney without reference to Bryant/Baez.
Most evaluators would consider Almora a tools prospect--advanced hit tool and stellar CF defense. These are tools under any evaluation system. Interesting that John Manuel has McKinney slightly ahead of Almora in prospects rankings notwithstanding Almora's superior upside. Shows that BA rankings are not only about tools.
As to Underwood and Tseng--BA not alone there. Sickels and McDaniel have Underwood ahead of Tseng. McDaniel has Underwood #7 and Tseng at # 19. Only ranking that I'm aware of that is not there yet is the dated MLB Pipeline (which still has Candelario at #11).
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Shows that BA rankings are not only about tools.
True. Of course, no one has said that it WAS only about tools.
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True. Of course, no one has said that it WAS only about tools.
And, of course, nobody said that anybody said it was only about tools.
Of course, somebody said BA places the most emphasis and value on tools, in relation to other evaluators.
Whether true or not, the BA ranking of McKinney over Almora is not one of tools over other factors. That's the point.
In any case, I'm unaware of any prospect evaluator who does not emphasize tools way, way more than performance. Anybody who didn't would be out of work in short order.
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http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2015-chicago-cubs-top-10-prospects-chat/
Manuel's long Q+A chat after the ranking. It's free, I'd assumed it would be blocked for subscribers only. A bunch of interesting stuff in there. Several I thought were cool:
1. He kinda wanted to put Stinnett ahead of all the other pitchers.
2. Almora higher ceiling than McKinney, but much higher risk as a hitter. Manuel says he's a believer, supported a poster's suggestion that Almora's offensive ceiling might be basically 2014 Castro.
3. He expects the top 7 to all make BA's top 100, and thinks Torres may even have a shot too.
4. Thinks Bryant/Russell/Soler will all make top 10 at least top 15.
5. The Cuban prospect Yoan Moncada, Manuel said he'd put him #3, just in front of Soler. Obvously he's just one evaluator, but that puts an interesting context both for how valuable Moncada is, and I also for how valuable Soler is. (When we see how much the winning bidder is going to spend for Moncado, tax included, it shows how pricey Soler would be.)
6. Manuel says he includes all of the pitchers the Cubs took in the first 7 rounds. I think that's a mistake, and he actually means the first 6. (First six would include Stinnet, Sands, Steele, and Cease. If he really means 7, that would be including James Norwood, which seems rather unlikely in a system as deep as ours.)
7. Said Sands' stuff wasn't as good after signing.
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...Most evaluators would consider Almora a tools prospect--advanced hit tool and stellar CF defense. These are tools under any evaluation system. ...
Tools versus performance is perhaps too simplistic. But Almora isn't rated and valued as highly as he is based on his .683 OPS performance. It's based on his perceived tools and projected productivity, defense, power, hitting.
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In any case, I'm unaware of any prospect evaluator who does not emphasize tools way, way more than performance. Anybody who didn't would be out of work in short order.
Probably wouldn't have trouble working for Billy Beane. In fact Beane likely wants more such prospect evaluators.
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Craig, thanks much for the link to the Manuel report...very interesting.
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I've written Baez off ... He's striking out at a ridiculous rate in winter ball ... he doesn't walk ... I don't see how any of that is going to get drastically better.
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Its getting awful hard to disagree.
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The only thing likely to have changed is that more pitchers and opposition managers are understanding the guy has serious pith recognition problems and they are exploiting the problem.
He is not getting any worse. He is just not yet getting any better with the underlying problem.
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JR, I'm curious what the BA article said about Gleyber Torres. Seems a pretty high ranking for a guy who I don't think is normally projected to develop much power.
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Craig, not to steal JR's considerable thunder, but back when BA ranked Gleyber as one of the best prospects in the Arizona Rookie League, they wrote that: "Torres hits with a compact stroke, good balance, at least average bat speed and very good hand-eye coordination. Torres is a selective and patient hitter who hits line drives into gaps and has the ability to drive the ball the other way.”
That's to hold you over until JR can weigh in (I don't have a BA subscription, but found the above stuff copied by some blog back when it was published).
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Not only is Torres ranked in the top ten, but one blog is claiming that he is the highest ranking Gleyber that Cubs have signed since the late 1800s.
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1. Kris Bryant
Background: The Cubs did plenty of due diligence on drafting Bryant out of high school in 2010, under their previous administration, scouting him heavily out of Las Vegas’ Bonanza High. The price wasn’t right, as it turned out, for any team, as Bryant bypassed the Jays (who drafted him in the 18th round) to go to San Diego. A three-year starter who also played for USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team, Bryant turned a corner in 2013, leading the nation in home runs (31) as well as walks, total bases and slugging percentage while playing third base, right field and center field for the Toreros. The No. 2 overall pick in 2013 signed for a Cubs club-record $6,708,400, then hit nine homers in his pro debut and was MVP of the Arizona Fall League. All he did for an encore was become the second player to win BA’s College and Minor League Player of the Year awards in consecutive years (Alex Gordon, 2005-06), leading the minors with 43 home runs and a .661 slugging percentage while ranking second in on-base percentage.
Scouting Report: Bryant’s biggest adjustment as an amateur was spreading out and simplifying his swing, and while he has some holes, as most tall sluggers do, his approach and pitch recognition make him an above-average hitter with lethal all-fields power. No one in the minor leagues gets to their raw power as much as Bryant, a baseball grinder whose father Mike played in the minors in the early 1980s and who works as a hitting coach in Las Vegas, having mentored Rangers No. 1 prospect Joey Gallo among others. While Gallo, like last year’s Cubs’ top prospect Javier Baez, always seems to be seeing how far he can hit it, Bryant has an all-fields approach that belies his experience level. He works at his craft, soaking up coaches’ information and applying it in ways that earns respect from coaches and teammates. Bryant’s athleticism makes him an average defender at third base, where he’s improved on balls in front of him, features an easy plus arm and ranges well to his left. He’s not as good going to his right, and few tall, lanky players his size have stayed at the hot corner. His average speed—he’s easy to grade because he runs virtually every ball out—would suit him well if he moves to the outfield, and he’d profile in right. Bryant’s makeup earns nearly as many plaudits as his power, both for his work ethic and love of the game, which go hand in hand.
The Future: The Cubs have a surplus of athletic infielders who can hit, and it’s conceivable either big league shortstops Baez and Starlin Castro or Double-A shortstop Addison Russell could wind up at third base, with Bryant shifting to the outfield. Bryant also could stay at third, where Luis Valbuena is keeping the hot corner warm in Chicago. Barring a poor start back Triple-A Iowa, Bryant should arrive on the North Side as soon as the Cubs deem it financially feasible. Bryant has the talent, confidence and makeup to be one of the game’s biggest stars. All he’s waiting for is the playing time.
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2. Addison Russell, ss
Born: Jan. 23, 1994. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 195. Drafted: HS—Pensacola, Fla., 2012 (1st round). Signed by: Kelcey Mucker (Athletics).
Background: The 12th overall pick in 2012, Russell signed for $2.625 million and instantly became the Athletics’ top prospect. His 2014 season got off to a slow start; he injured his hamstring on Opening Day and missed two months. When he returned Russell was the key return for the Cubs when they traded Jeff Samardzija to the Athletics.
Scouting Report: Russell combines above-average athleticism with extremely quick hands and impressive strength to produce both plus hitting ability and power. He’s nearly impossible to beat with a fastball when he’s looking for it and stays back on offspeed stuff, trusting his fast hands and making plenty of high-impact contact. Defensively, Russell has the range and improved footwork to stay at shortstop. He has an average arm with a slight hitch in his throwing motion, but it’s accurate and he has a good internal clock, so most scouts believe he can be an average defender. He’s played some second base as well. He’s an above-average runner but not a burner.
The Future: Russell’s bat will play anywhere. Chicago shortstop Starlin Castro will play as a 25-year-old in 2015, so Russell should open the season at Triple-A Iowa.
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3. Jorge Soler
Background: Soler defected from Cuba in 2011, officially signing for a $6 million bonus as part of a nine-year, $30 million contract. Soler had trouble staying on the field in his last two seasons, getting too bulky and straining both hamstrings early in 2014. A looser Soler took off in the second half, including a tantalizing big league callup.
Scouting Report: Kris Bryant hits more homers, but Soler’s create more buzz. His vicious bat speed, top-of-the-scale raw power and impressive feel for hitting make him a terror to pitchers. When locked in, he generates scorching line drives to all fields; some just don’t stop going until they’re over the fence. He’s coachable, takes quality at-bats and isn’t fazed by hitting with two strikes. Soler runs average at this point in his career and has an easy plus arm, fitting the right-field profile well. His biggest issues are concentration, competing consistently and staying healthy, none of which he has done yet over a full pro season.
The Future: Soler is the best outfielder and righthanded power hitter on the Cubs’ big league roster. If he stays healthy, he has the ability to be an all-star right fielder soon.
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4. Kyle Schwarber, c/of
Born: March 5, 1993. B-T: L-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 235. Drafted: Indiana, 2014 (1st round). Signed by: Stan Zielinski.
Background: As a sophomore, Schwarber led Indiana to the 2013 College World Series. The Cubs drafted him fourth overall in 2014, signing him for a $3.125 million bonus. Then Schwarber destroyed pro pitching in his debut, hitting 19 home runs (counting the playoffs) over three levels.
Scouting Report: Schwarber has thick, strong legs and swings from the ground up, incorporating his powerful lower half to deliver plus power with a short, furious stroke. He keeps his hands back and has the strength to hit the ball out to any part of the park. He has a .300-hitting, 30-homer ceiling. A college catcher, Schwarber has leadership skills and solid-average arm strength, but his receiving was rudimentary as an amateur, frequently dropping to one knee to handle breaking balls. He has the tools to be a capable left fielder, having shown instincts for the position.
The Future: With his bat, Schwarber—an average runner underway—could move quickly as an outfielder. The Cubs intend to catch him, with some club officials giving him a 50-50 shot to stay there, while sources outside the system aren’t as sanguine. The offseason plan is for Schwarber to open as the Double-A catcher, but the plan could change in spring training.
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5. C.J. Edwards
Background: Signed for $50,000 by the Rangers, Edwards was a key piece the Cubs received in trade that sent Matt Garza to Texas. Edwards missed most of 2014 with a right shoulder strain, making four April starts in Double-A and six more after returning in August. He didn’t need surgery, however.
Scouting Report: At his best, Edwards delivers three above-average to plus pitches, with excellent body control leading to an easy, rhythmic delivery and strike-throwing ability. He’s very tough for hitters to square up due to late cutting action on his fastball, which generally sat 90-93 mph in August and in his Arizona Fall League stint. The late life on the pitch has allowed him to allow just two home runs in 237 career pro innings. His curveball improved over his 2013 model, with more snap now in the upper 70s. The change flashes plus, playing off his fastball. His feel for pitching returned though his command showed some rust.
The Future: Durability remains Edwards’ biggest concern, and he raised more questions this year than he answered, but Cubs officials believe he learned a lesson in how to prepare for a full season. Chicago’s best pitching prospect likely will start 2015 back at Double-A, with front-of-the-rotation stuff and doubts over how often he can go to the post.
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6. Billy McKinney, of
Born: Aug. 23, 1994. B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 195. Drafted: HS—Plano, Texas, 2013 (1st round). Signed by: Armann Brown (Athletics).
Background: The Cubs were stunned they were able to pry both Addison Russell and McKinney, the Athletics’ top two prospects, away in the Jeff Samardzija/Jason Hammel trade. Signed in 2013 for $1.8 million, McKinney jumped to high Class A for his first full season and hit better in the high Class A Florida State League after the trade than in the offense-first California League.
Scouting Report: It’s all about the approach with McKinney, a polished hitter who is quiet in the box, with a balanced setup and good hands. He’ll bar his swing at times but generally has as smooth path to the ball and isn’t afraid to hit with two strikes, or to use the whole field. McKinney’s pitch recognition and situational hitting skills are other plusses, leading some evaluators to believe he may wind up with average or a tick above home run production eventually. A sore shoulder limited McKinney to DH duty down the stretch, and his fringy arm strength limits him to left or center field anyway. He’s an average runner.
The Future: McKinney isn’t a profile left fielder, but his Todd Hollandsworth/Rusty Greer skillset blends well with the rest of the Cubs’ aggressive, powerful bats. He’s headed to Double-A as a 20-year-old in 2015.
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7. Albert Almora
Background: Almora signed for $3.9 million as the sixth overall pick in 2012. Injuries interrupted his first pro season, and he reached Double-A in 2014 but has yet to thrive.
Scouting Report: Almora has first-round tools, starting with a line-drive bat with present strength, fine hand-eye coordination, bat speed to catch up to good fastballs and average raw power. He was pitched backwards much of the season and struggled to adjust. He still employs a big leg kick and can get streaky, as evidenced by a .377/.395/.649 finishing kick with high Class A Daytona before his promotion. A bit more patience would go a long way to making him a big league regular considering Almora’s defense, which remains advanced. He reads hitters’ swings, has excellent range despite fringe-average speed and owns an accurate, strong arm. His bilingual skills come in handy in the clubhouse, and Almora’s makeup and work ethic remain strong positives.
The Future: The Cubs don’t need Almora to be a star, just a grinder who can hit and play plus defense at a premium position. Those goals are attainable if he becomes more flexible in his hitting approach. He’s headed back to Double-A to begin 2015 but now has Arismendy Alcantara ahead of him as Chicago’s incumbent center fielder.
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8. Gleyber Torres, ss
Born: Dec. 13, 1996. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 175. Signed: Venezuela, 2013. Signed by: Louie Eljaua/Hector Ortega.
Background: The Cubs signed the two top-ranked players in the 2013 July 2 signing period, Torres and outfielder Eloy Jimenez, who got more money but is much less polished than Torres. A $1.7 million signee, Torres finished his U.S. pro debut by earning a promotion to short-season Boise before his 18th birthday. His maturity showed as he maintained his focus despite turmoil in his native Venezuela that prompted his family to come to the U.S.
Scouting Report: Torres is not the typical teen and draws comparisons to Cubs prospect Albert Almora for his baseball savvy and instincts. His hands, actions and above-average arm fit him for shortstop, and his internal clock helps him make routine plays look routine. His range may fit him better for second base, where his bat should carry him. He has an advanced approach for any age, with strength that allows him to drive mistakes to the gaps and fight off pitchers’ pitches. He’s willing to draw walks and has a chance to be an above-average hitter with fringe-average power down the line. He’s an average runner and won’t be a big basestealer.
The Future: Torres is expected to advance to full-season ball with Chicago’s new low Class A South Bend affiliate. He’s a couple of years away from the Cubs’ upper-levels middle-infield glut and could be trade bait sooner than later.
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9. Pierce Johnson
Background: Arvada, Colo., was the high school home for Johnson as well as Roy Halladay and Mark Melancon. Johnson signed in 2012 for $1.196 million. He has a long history of forearm trouble from his amateur days, when he also had knee and hand injuries, but has never had arm surgery. When he was disabled in 2014, it was due to hamstring issues, not his arm.
Scouting Report: Johnson walked eight in his second Double-A start in 2014 and took a while to find his confidence thereafter. When he throws strikes, his stuff has proved hard to square up; opponents have hit .227 against him as a pro. His 90-94 mph fastball can reach 96 and has late life up in the zone. His upright finish can make it difficult for him to locate down in the zone, a developmental focus going forward. Johnson throws both a hard late-breaking curveball with depth and sluvy shape in the low 80s and a short, cutter-like slider. He’s learned to use his fringy changeup more effectively with pro experience.
The Future: If Johnson puts it all together, he profiles as a No. 2 or No. 3 starter with two plus pitches and potentially above-average control. Chicago’s 2014 ace, Jake Arrieta, had a similar (albeit more durable) career path, and Johnson’s stuff is worth the wait. He could pitch his way to Triple-A Iowa with a strong, healthy spring training.
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10. Duane Underwood, rhp
Born: July 20, 1994. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 205. Drafted: HS—Marietta, Ga., 2012 (2nd round). Signed by: Keith Lockhart.
Background: Underwood was a potential first-round pick as a prep senior before an erratic spring in which he didn’t hold his top-end velocity. The Cubs signed him for a $1.05 million bonus and he struggled in his first two seasons. But having dropped 25-30 pounds, Underwood broke out at low Class A Kane County.
Scouting Report: Underwood took off when his preparation started to match his ability. He not only had a better body but a better, more professional mindset. His weight loss unlocked his athleticism, allowing him to better repeat his delivery and locate his plus fastball. He had the highest average velocity of any Cubs minor league starter; his heater can sit in the 94-96 mph range. He’s learning to finish hitters off with a hard curve that flashes plus as well thanks to its depth and late action. He needs to locate both pitches better against more advanced hitters. His changeup continues to improve and also flashes plus because he throws it with good arm speed. Consistency with location and preparation continue to be Underwood’s biggest weaknesses.
The Future: No one took as big of a step forward for the organization in 2014 as Underwood, who has the system’s most electric stuff. If he combines better control with more consistent displays of the best of his repertoire, he could move quickly. He’ll start 2015 with Chicago’s new high Class A Myrtle Beach affiliate.
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Thanks JR!
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Yes, thanks, JR.
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Thanks, JR.
JR Baseball America Top 10 BA Top 10 BA top 10 Scouting Reports scouting reports Scouting reports
Bryant Russell Soler Schwarber Edwards McKinney Almora Torres Johnson Underwood
Heh heh, I'm trying to put in a bunch of keywords so that if/when I want to search my way back to these reports, it will be easy! Fun.
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Heh heh, I'm trying to put in a bunch of keywords so that if/when I want to search my way back to these reports, it will be easy! Fun.
Craig, just save this link:
http://bbf.createaforum.com/general-discussion/on-the-farm-208/msg207297/#msg207297
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Thanks, JR.
JR Baseball America Top 10 BA Top 10 BA top 10 Scouting Reports scouting reports Scouting reports
Bryant Russell Soler Schwarber Edwards McKinney Almora Torres Johnson Underwood
Heh heh, I'm trying to put in a bunch of keywords so that if/when I want to search my way back to these reports, it will be easy! Fun.
That may have been a bunch of random keywords to you, but to Curt, it would have been his most intelligible post since BigBadBanana retired.
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Dave, I have a message from BigBadBanana for you. "ESAD" what's that mean?
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Exceptional stupidity and dementia?
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https://twitter.com/andruwgreen/status/553930531721998336
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=santia001and&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.mlbtraderumors.com
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https://twitter.com/andruwgreen/status/553930531721998336
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=santia001and&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.mlbtraderumors.com
Organizational depth.
Every minor league game has to have some pitcher starting it.
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And every MLB system has to have someone to call up in case of injury or failure by MLB players, without damaging the team to much, or perhaps even helping. Caughlin was a good example.
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True enough... but Andruw Green is very unlikely to ever be that guy. He is the kind of pitcher who doesn't hurt the AA team too much when he gets a start. His AA ERA last year, his second full season at that level, was almost half a run higher than the team average, and 3/4 of a run higher than the league average. He is organizational roster fill.
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Of course you meant Santiago. Andruw Green was the guy that tweeted.
I know nothing about Santiago other than his stats. I assume Hoyer has more information at his disposal.
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Organizational depth.
Every minor league game has to have some pitcher starting it.
A spectacular waste of bandwidth.
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Of course you meant Santiago. Andruw Green was the guy that tweeted.
I know nothing about Santiago other than his stats. I assume Hoyer has more information at his disposal.
Yes, but part of that information is a good handle on how much organizational depth is needed. Teams routinely acquire bodies for organizaitonal depth, and there is nothing wrong with that, even if some fans want to imagine great significance in every move a team makes. There is no reason at all to believe there is anything more to Santiago than his performance to date indicates. And that being the case there is no reason to think the move is anything more than it appears, an insignificant move to acquire a body to take the mound in AA-ball every 5th day simply because every game has to have a starting pitcher.
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There is no reason at all to believe there is anything more to Santiago than his performance to date indicates.
There is no reason that YOU KNOW OF.
In spite of your posts, I suspect that it is still possible that you realize that there might be information in this world that you are not cognizant of.
Then again, perhaps not.
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Obama is toast
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There is no reason that YOU KNOW OF.
In spite of your posts, I suspect that it is still possible that you realize that there might be information in this world that you are not cognizant of.
Then again, perhaps not.
davep, that is about the stupidest thing I have seen from you, though I will readily acknowledge that I am not cognizant of all of the stupid things you have said or done, and that in all odds you have topped it multiple times.
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Interesting. The one who spends his life quibbling about semantics suddenly resents it when he is quibbled with.
Or are you saying that you DO have all the information available to the front office, and that you are in a position to judge their intentions with absolute certainty?
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Heh heh heh
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Interesting. The one who spends his life quibbling about semantics suddenly resents it when he is quibbled with.
Or are you saying that you DO have all the information available to the front office, and that you are in a position to judge their intentions with absolute certainty?
Saying "there is no reason at all to believe" constitutes absoute certainty?
There is still no reason at all to believe Santiago is anything other than organizational roster fill.
Let me ask you a question, davep. Do you have any reason at all to belive that the next person you see on the street will be a murderer? If you have no such reason, are you really in a position to have absolute certainty about it?
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So you are saying that if the front office signs a prospect, we have no reason to believe he is not a prospect. sounds right to me.
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Occam's razor, davep.
I assume you would not dispute that every team in the minors needs to have players on the field at every position every game, and that every game needs a starting pitcher. I assume you would also agree that the organization will use starting pitchers in the minors more or less the same as in the majors, though with an organizational caution in using young pitchers and care to avoid abusing and injuring them, they will be used a bit more conservatively. And I assume you would agree that even though the farm system has a higher than normal proportion of real prospects, that several roster positions on several of the minor league teams will NOT really be filed with prospects with anything resembling an actual chance of playing in the majors but will instead be filled with organizational roster fill, players who are signed simply because SOMEONE has to be there, and they are the best of those available for those roles.
If we have no reason to believe a signing is anything other than that.... we have no reason to believe the signing is anything other than that. In this case, though I used the wrong name before my first comment on it, I had looked at his stats first and not only saw no reason to think he was signed as anything other than organizational roster fill, I saw a record and darft selection position indicating the same. Does this mean I am precluding the posibility the front office may see something else in him and have realistic hopes he might be more? Of course not, but possibilities we are unaware of are not a reason to think anything more than the most obvious possibility applies.
One other point: signing a free agent 25 year old pitcher who has never even had success in AA, despite being there for three years, and who rated 40th before his mediocre 2014 season in the Dodger system, is not exactly "signing a prospect."
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In 7 games this year in Puerto Rico, Baez is 7 for 30 with a double and 2 BBs. He has K'd 6 times. Perhaps he is working on sacrificing power for contact?
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Ocam's razor, Jes. If the prison down the street just has a massive breakout and you see a guy in an orange jump suit coming down the street, he most likely isn't a murderer, but you would be idiotic to dismiss the possibility.
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Schrodinger's cat Dave. I have nothing to add, I just wanted to throw out terms too.
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If you put Jes in a box and aerate it with a .45, when the box gets to Antarctica how long do you leave the box outside before opening the box? Since we don't know if he's alive or not, has a murderer been committed? So, let's not open the box.
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In 7 games this year in Puerto Rico, Baez is 7 for 30 with a double and 2 BBs. He has K'd 6 times. Perhaps he is working on sacrificing power for contact?
??? Play, I'm not tracking. Are you choosing some 7 recent games, or something? Or the total winter league season?
The following site shows data for 11 games, none since Dec 28. Do you have some more recent results which are more contact-oriented? http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/org.jsp?id=chc
The mlb site reports 11 games in Puerto Rico, not 7. With 21K in 43 AB. 12K to 1 hit over the last five games listed, so getting back into baseball groove didn't seem helpful. That's two weeks old, though; if you've got some data that shows better success in games over the subsequent two weeks, that would be interesting. I'd wondered if he just played for a couple weeks, struggled, and just came home?
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I'm just manually checking the daily box scores:
http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/scoreboard.jsp?sid=l133&t=l_sco&lid=133
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Schrodinger's cat Dave. I have nothing to add, I just wanted to throw out terms too.
They opened the box. The cat is dead.
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I'm just manually checking the daily box scores:
http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/scoreboard.jsp?sid=l133&t=l_sco&lid=133
Ah, good. So the "this year" is this calendar year, not this Puerto Rican season, gotcha. Sounds good.
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Yes- calendar year. Admittedly, a somewhat arbitrary choice of sampling!
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It seems overwhelmingly likely that Baez is working on specific adjustments. It's hard to conceive of him having 32 PAs with only 7 K's and no HRs with his former approach. Perhaps he's following advice from Mallee?
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Cubs Den has his K% at 31% overall and in the playoffs (37 PA) it is 16%. He mentions that Baez is making some rather large changes, but he doesn't mention what it is.
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Fingers (and toes) are crossed for Baez, but for now I'm assuming he'll be a non-factor for the 2015 season, or the bulk of it anyway. He's plenty young, so hopefully he'll get things turned around no later than the beginning of the 2016 season.
I think the offensive hopes for the Cubs in 2015 rest with Rizzo and Castro at least maintaining what they did last year, Soler and Bryant becoming forces to reckon with, Montero/Ross constituting a substantial upgrade at catcher and others (Alcantara, Coughlan, LaStella et al) performing reasonably well. Is it that hard to imagine improved offense from catcher, 2B, 3B (if Bryant catches on quickly) and maybe all three OF positions?
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The Cubs OBP/OPS by position last season were: LF- .329/.783; CF- .264/.610; RF- .290/.673; 3B- .302/.726; SS- .323/.733; 2B- .280/.622; 1B- .381/.890; C- .285/.620. I don't see a high likelihood that the infield offense will be greatly improved in 2015 (unless Baez takes a big step forward). We should get significantly more offensive production from C. The key will be whether either (or both) of Alcantara and Soler make big strides. Maybe we can get to the middle of the pack in the NL in runs scored, and that would give us a chance to be in the playoff chase down the stretch. But lots of things would have to go right.
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Kris Bryant could improve on the 3B numbers a lot and that could move Valbuena to 2B improving the production there. La Stella might be able to do better at 2B as well. I'll be shocked if Soler doesn't out perform .673.
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LF- .329/.783; Should get worse. Very unlikely to match or exceed.
CF- .264/.610; Can't help but get better. I'm not sold that Alcantara will turn it on, but a .264 OBP is kinda hard to sustain.
RF- .290/.673; Could/should get significantly better. I think Soler could clear .300 OBP, and should go well beyond .673 OPS.
So, overall OF I expect to be significantly better. That could depend heavily on Alcantara, of course, and on how long of a rope the give him if he's struggling.
3B- .302/.726; Maintain or maybe improve somewhat.
SS- .323/.733; Maintain.
2B- .280/.622; Could improve significantly. Again, .280 OBP is pretty low. I expect some help here, whether La stella, Valbuena, Alcantara, or baez.
1B- .381/.890; Going down, perhaps big time. Rizzo had a fabulous year, pretty hard to see him replicating that.
C- .285/.620. Modest improvement possible. If they keep Castillo and platoon him, it could improved massively. But if Ross is playing as Lester's personal catcher, rather than as a semi-platoon versus lefties only, he should be really bad. And if Montero is playing a lot versus lefties, he's not going to be that hot, either. And old catchers are also relatively likely to get hurt.
Overall I see Rizzo and LF as likely to go down, but 2B and CF likely to go up, possibly significantly. RF, 3B, and C also have chance to improve variably.
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The striking thing with those positional breakdowns is that the Cubs had only four positions that sustained .300 OBP, and 3B just barely.
Three positions (not counting pitcher) with .622-OPS or worse.
They had some really really bad spots. Olt, Lake, Baez, Alcantara, Baker, Barney, Schierholz, they gave away a LOT of AB's to really bad out makers. It's hardly even possible to be that bad again.
1B and LF both greatly outperformed expectation, of course.
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Alcantara had an OBP of .215 and an OPS of .565 vs. RHP. Improvement in offensive numbers for CF might be less than you think.
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My thinking is that he'll either be a lot better or else he'll be in Iowa.
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Alcantara's overall OPS was .620 because he hit lefties so well. So there is certainly reason to be hopeful.
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LF- .329/.783; Should get worse. Very unlikely to match or exceed.
CF- .264/.610; Can't help but get better. I'm not sold that Alcantara will turn it on, but a .264 OBP is kinda hard to sustain.
RF- .290/.673; Could/should get significantly better. I think Soler could clear .300 OBP, and should go well beyond .673 OPS.
So, overall OF I expect to be significantly better. That could depend heavily on Alcantara, of course, and on how long of a rope the give him if he's struggling.
3B- .302/.726; Maintain or maybe improve somewhat.
SS- .323/.733; Maintain.
2B- .280/.622; Could improve significantly. Again, .280 OBP is pretty low. I expect some help here, whether La stella, Valbuena, Alcantara, or baez.
1B- .381/.890; Going down, perhaps big time. Rizzo had a fabulous year, pretty hard to see him replicating that.
C- .285/.620. Modest improvement possible. If they keep Castillo and platoon him, it could improved massively. But if Ross is playing as Lester's personal catcher, rather than as a semi-platoon versus lefties only, he should be really bad. And if Montero is playing a lot versus lefties, he's not going to be that hot, either. And old catchers are also relatively likely to get hurt.
Overall I see Rizzo and LF as likely to go down, but 2B and CF likely to go up, possibly significantly. RF, 3B, and C also have chance to improve variably.
With stats like that a team could finish last in its division.
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Ocam's razor, Jes. If the prison down the street just has a massive breakout and you see a guy in an orange jump suit coming down the street, he most likely isn't a murderer, but you would be idiotic to dismiss the possibility.
Reading comprehension, davep. I did not dismiss the possibility. I said there is no reason to believe the guy was signed as anything other than organizational roster fill. There isn't.
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Alcantara's overall OPS was .620 because he hit lefties so well. So there is certainly reason to be hopeful.
In 2013, he did better versus righties than lefties. And in 2012, his splits were even. Will be curious whether the strong 2014 split will be a permanent thing. Obviously if it is, .215-OBP-vs-RHP guys don't get a lot of starts vs RHP long-term.
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Ryan (the forgotten man) Sweeney might get a lot of plate appearances if Alcantara struggles against RHP's again and Sweeney stays healthy.
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Kris Bryant could improve on the 3B numbers a lot and that could move Valbuena to 2B improving the production there.
He could, and I certainly join you in hoping that he does, but keep in mind that as good as Mike Schmidt was, if Bryant is every bit as good as Schmidt for every bit as long and joins Schmidt as a first ballot HOFer.... he will still be a drag on the team offensively.
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Baez 2-6 tonight, singling in the winning run with 2 outs in the bottom of the 10th. He K'd once.
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Fingers crossed.
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Patrick Mooney says the Cubs have traded recently DFA'd LHP Mike Kickham for Lars Huijer:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=huijer000lar
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MLB.com rates him #17 for the Mariners
Scouting grades: Fastball: 50 | Curveball: 50 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45
The Mariners have long been active in Europe, with Huijer's signing out of the Netherlands in 2011 a recent example.
Huijer has an interesting three-pitch mix to go along with some projectability. He throws a sinking fastball -- mostly in the upper-80s -- that generates a lot of ground balls. He can also throw his mid-70s curve and upper-70s changeup for strikes. Huijer does a good job of keeping the ball down in the zone.
With some added strength and experience, Huijer's stuff could take a step forward, giving him the chance to be a mid-rotation starter if it all clicks.
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Finally. This organization has been lacking the influence of someone named Lars for a long time. Especially since Condor Cash and Rock Shoulders are no longer with the Cubs.
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Didnt we have Lars Anderson last year?
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Weren't he and Arn the Minnesota Wrecking Crew?
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Finally. This organization has been lacking the influence of someone named Lars for a long time. Especially since Condor Cash and Rock Shoulders are no longer with the Cubs.
The most important thing is that you can't go wrong with a Dutchman.
By the way, both Condor Cash and Rock Shoulders will be rendered valueless next year when the Cubs draft Skye Bolt.
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No Curt.
That was Ole Anderson.
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Weren't all three involved at some point? Then they brought in Blanchard and Flair.
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How about a Sven? Are there any Sven's in the organization?
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How about a Sven? Are there any Sven's in the organization?
Yes. Starlin Juan Garcia y Vasques Pancho Estrellio Sven Castro.
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Patrick Mooney says the Cubs have traded recently DFA'd LHP Mike Kickham for Lars Huijer:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=huijer000lar
Huijer comes to us straight out of Haarlem.
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Weren't he and Arn the Minnesota Wrecking Crew?
Actually, there were several versions of the Minnesota Wrecking Crew, including the Minnesota Wrecking Crew II, who wrestled in masks and were the Destruction Crew of the AWA and that promotion's tag team champions at the time.
The Andersons that wrestled as the Minnesota Wrecking Crew were: Gene, Ole, Arn and, yes, Lars. First came Gene and Lars, then Ole and finally Arn. None of them were actually related.
It is horrible that I remember any of that.
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Actually, there were several versions of the Minnesota Wrecking Crew, including the Minnesota Wrecking Crew II, who wrestled in masks and were the Destruction Crew of the AWA and that promotion's tag team champions at the time.
The Andersons that wrestled as the Minnesota Wrecking Crew were: Gene, Ole, Arn and, yes, Lars. First came Gene and Lars, then Ole and finally Arn. None of them were actually related.
It is horrible that I remember any of that.
Remembering it is bad... actually knowing any of it in the first place may be worse. Even after reading it, none of it stuck in my mind to a degree to adress whether it will ever be remembered.
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BA is going to put Schwarber in the top 20 strictly on his bat.
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That's pretty awesome.
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BA is going to put Schwarber in the top 20 strictly on his bat.
Think you're referring to Ben Badler's list---one of the four BA analysts who will rank top guys. Remains to be seen whether Schwarber cracks BA top 20 list. Unless you have access to the list already??
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I thought Badler was teasing the BA list? If not then he has 4 Cubs in his personal top 20. Truth be told I like the BA list less than every other list last year. BP losing Parks could drop them, but I'm not sure yet.
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It's his personal list. Not to say that Schwarber won't crack top 20 BA list (including Badler's input) but rankings won't be revealed for awhile.
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Leave it to ArizonaPhil to come up with rules that I have never heard of.
At the time the Cubs claimed Kickham, there were eleven teams between the Cub's pick and Seattle's pick. If at the time the Cubs claimed Kickham, if any of the eleven teams also claimed him, then if they put in a grievance with MLB, they could get Kickham for the 20,000 dollar waiver price, and Huijer would have to be returned to Seattle if another deal could not be worked out. Phil says that it is extremely rare for a team to file such a grievance, but it did happen once. If no one puts in a grievance, the trade will hold.
This rule is to prevent the practice (that is fairly common) in the rule v draft, where a team with an early pick selects a player with the intention of trading him to a team who would not otherwise had much of a chance to get that player. Cubs did that this year.
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Cubs did that this year.
And in 2007 with Josh Hamilton.
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McLeod said that Torres (SS) will likely start at South Bend.
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CUBluejays - Were you there this morning? There were more good questions at this session than any other I attended, including the one that resulted in this response.
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No. I just saw it on Twitter. When my son gets old enough I'd love to take him though.
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Tidbits from this morning's "Down on the Farm" session at the Cubs Convention:
McLeod said that Rivero will be in the major league camp and will challenge for a place on the roster. He expects him to be a part of the bullpen soon. Referred to Torres as "a smart kid."
Asked to identify guys who are overlooked, I think it was Jaron Madison who mentioned the following: Caratini - really impressive, learning how to catch, think he's due for a breakout year; Candelario - has the tools to be an impact 3B, after struggling last season starting to make improvements, expect a good year from him.
Asked about Kane County's impressive performance as a team, McLeod singled out Underwood ("great developmental year") and Blackburn, and also mentioned Rademacher ("professional hitter, plays all OF positions).
Asked about Kevonte Mitchell (there were a few pretty sophisticated fans asking questions today for a change), McLeod said that he is a tremendous athlete, who did really in rookie league someone who had such little baseball experience, hitting for average and controlling the strike zone, but is a long ways away.
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Kyle Schwarber said that he was "self-taught" as a catcher. He watched catchers on TV and tried to copy what they did. Said after he got drafted and joined the Cubs, he found out he was doing a lot of things wrong. He said he went through a crash course at Kane County and it all clicked quickly, "I got it." He seems to feel very confident that now that he has gotten (and will get) good coaching, he can become a good catcher (he clearly understands that he still has a lot to learn and that it will take hard work - but he's confident about succeeding).
McLeod, by the way, related a story from he and Theo first met with Schwarber (before drafting him). He said most kids, in the presence of a major league exec like Theo are, if not intimidated, pretty awed. But when they asked Schwarber if he really though he could catch, he responded something to the effect of "I get really (expletive deleted) when people question whether I can (expletive deleted) catch ..." This clearly made a good impression on McLeod and Theo.
Smokies and Spring Training broadcaster Mick Gillespie said that Addison Russell has the best hands he's ever seen in a minor leaguer. Russell volunteered that he needs to cut down on his strikeouts and errors.
iAnd finally (unless I think of something else), in an earlier session, Gillespie said that Kris Bryant is the best hitter he's seen play in the minor leagues (as he apologized to Baez, Soler and Alcantara who were on his panel).
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Kyle Schwarber said that he was "self-taught" as a catcher. He watched catchers on TV and tried to copy what they did. Said after he got drafted and joined the Cubs, he found out he was doing a lot of things wrong.
This can be interpreted as a backhanded slap of the baseball coaching staff of Indiana University.
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I didn't even think it was backhanded. It was a direct hit.
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It aint like he went to a powerhouse SEC baseball school.
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Yeah he probably had to go to classes and get real grades.
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This can be interpreted as a backhanded slap of the baseball coaching staff of Indiana University.
I suspect it was more a matter of simply not getting any actual coaching at IU on how to catch.
Schwarber seems very, very promising. Some athleticism, a good hitting eye, intelligence, willingness to actual work on changing whatever is needed, and receptive to coaching pointing out his errors without any resistance.
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Yeah he probably had to go to classes and get real grades.
I assume that is actually still required there. It was when Bobby Knight was coaching the basketball team. At one point in about 1980 one of the team's top freshman recruits, a guy who had been pursued by top schools all over the country, called a news conference to announce that he was leaving the program and would be enrolling in another school and playing basketball for someone other than Bobby Knight. He almost seemed to be saying ANYONE other than Bobby Knight. In responding to reporters questions he explained that he simply could not deal with all of Knight's rule, not only on the court, but off the court, requiring players to keep a curfew, attend classes, and even to pass the classes. Some of the reporters laughed a bit and asked him if Knight hadn't made those expectations perfectly clear to him before he signed with I.U., the kid responded to the effect of, "Sure he did.... but it's not like I actually thought he was serious."
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Thanks for reports, Ron. The Kevonte Mitchell as "great athlete" stuff is encouraging. Tallish guy, and did control the strike-zone, but was pretty much a singles hitter. A great athlete with that kind of height, you'd think there might be some possible power in future.
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I remember a report that said that he showed power in batting practice but it hasn't translated into game production yet.
Don't know if that is a good or bad sign.
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Ron, thanks a lot for you report on the convention in general, and down-on-farm in particular. Very much appreciated.
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I'm happy to have provided my fragmented reports from the convention. I get a lot from BBF and it's nice to have an opportunity to give something back.
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Gleyber Torres looks like a lock to start the season in South Bend, despite just turning 18 last month. With Russell moving up to AAA and Marco Hernandez traded away, there aren't any major obstacles in his path short of Chicago. If (mighty big if) his performance merits it, he could get called up in September 2016 at the tender age of 19.
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Gleyber Torres looks like a lock to start the season in South Bend, despite just turning 18 last month. With Russell moving up to AAA and Marco Hernandez traded away, there aren't any major obstacles in his path short of Chicago. If (mighty big if) his performance merits it, he could get called up in September 2016 at the tender age of 19.
I suspect there will be a lot of pitchers he faces along the way who serve as meaningful obstacles for Torres, as well as management's attitude toward promotion and developent, well beyond the perspective which would exist in most organizations that when a minor league prospect's position is quite adequately filled at the major league level there is no need or reason to speed the prospects promotion thru the minors. I doubt there is anyway within the reasonable range of probability that he could reach the majors by the end of 2016, unless his performance ended up combined with a major league level immediate need such as sometimes arises as a result of injury (or multiple injuries) with the big league club.
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Agree, nobody is blocking him, so he can move as rapidly as his talent, improvement, and the difficulty of pro baseball allows.
I'd imagine end of 2017 would be as optimistic as I could imagine. I think they like to give guys a full year at a spot, and my guess is he'll find South Bend plenty challenging. Aggressive to move him there already, so I'm guessing that they'll be happy if he's solid/competitive there. Unlikely that he'll dominate or get bored there and need a promotion. Then ideally start 2016 Daytona and finish AA; start 2017 AA, promote to Iowa, and perhaps be September ready for majors at age 20. Fun to dream, and imagine everything going ideally.
The one thing I'll be most interested in this year will be his GO/AO rate. He was 2.06 GO/AO last year. A second was 40K/182 AB. Who cares, he's super young so he's rated so favorably because everybody projects improvement, so the grounders hit last year presumably have no predictive power. But sometimes for guys who have a ground ball stroke or swing plane, that doesn't necessarily change much. Based on Baez and Almora, the Cubs seem reluctant to tinker with a hitter's swing mechanics or presumably swing plane. On the other hand, there was some reports that Soler was hitting too many hard grounders, and that they did make efforts to adjust his swing somewhat, with good results. Will be interesting to see how Torres's ground ball frequency looks going forward.
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But that is the only obstacle which defeats most prospects. It is so rare as not to merit real discussion that a high quality prospect fails to reach the majors simply because his "path" is "blocked" by better players/prospects at higher levels.
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By the way, one thing I forgot to mention about the Cubs Convention was although Kris Bryant was there and was introduced in the Opening Ceremony he was not on a single panel and he was not slated for any of the autograph sessions (virtually every other player was in at least one autograph session). I found that interesting.
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If he can't read or write maybe we've finally found a flaw!
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He can read and write fine. He just hates Cubs fans.
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By the way, one thing I forgot to mention about the Cubs Convention was although Kris Bryant was there and was introduced in the Opening Ceremony he was not on a single panel and he was not slated for any of the autograph sessions (virtually every other player was in at least one autograph session). I found that interesting.
Theo promised Bryant he'll be up a week earlier so long as Bryant keeps his mouth shut about opening at Iowa.
Must be very difficult for Theo and Hoyer to keep a straight face when explaining why Bryant opens at Iowa.
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Theo promised Bryant he'll be up a week earlier so long as Bryant keeps his mouth shut about opening at Iowa.
Must be very difficult for Theo and Hoyer to keep a straight face when explaining why Bryant opens at Iowa.
Not at all. And they have even explained it. It is only difficult for fans to accept plainly explained reality when it is at odds with their preconceived notions. That doesn't mean Theo or Hoyer have any difficulty presenting a reasonable explanation.
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No more than it was for the Astros to keep Springer down because he turned down an extension and calling up Singleton because he signed one. It is a baseball rules problem, not a Cubs problem.
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No more than it was for the Astros to keep Springer down because he turned down an extension and calling up Singleton because he signed one. It is a baseball rules problem, not a Cubs problem.
It's not a problem at all.
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No more than it was for the Astros to keep Springer down because he turned down an extension and calling up Singleton because he signed one. It is a baseball rules problem, not a Cubs problem.
Word.
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It will be easy to tell the reason for starting Bryant in the minors (if they do). If they bring him up in three weeks, the odds of his learning enough to prove himself in that time are almost nil, and it was almost certainly done for free agency purposes. If on the other hand he doesn't come up until July or August, he was likely there for learning purposes only.
I expect him up in April.
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They'll come up with some good excuse, just like Rizzo needs X number ABs at the AAA level. It was just a coincidence that when he reached that number he also delayed his super 2 status. It is also a coincidence X number of AB haven't been mentioned again since for player promotions.
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As long as management does the smart thing, I'm not too concerned about what they say about why they're doing it.
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They'll come up with some good excuse, just like Rizzo needs X number ABs at the AAA level. It was just a coincidence that when he reached that number he also delayed his super 2 status. It is also a coincidence X number of AB haven't been mentioned again since for player promotions.
It is also just a coincidence that when I drop something from my extended arm that it falls toward the earth instead of floating away into space.
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I noticed when you were eating that whenever your elbow bent, your mouth opened.
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If he can't read or write maybe we've finally found a flaw!
Thats one reason why we have to send him down to start the season-to work on this!!!
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Maybe he still has to work on his cliches.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTCs0-a7I9g
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Luckily for me grammar and spelling weren't part of the MCAT when I took it.
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Mute as moot is neither grammar, nor spelling, though I will readily grant that knowing the difference is not likely to do a damn bit of good on either the MCAT or practicing medicine.
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Baez with 3 K's in 3 ABs so far tonight.
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0-4, but failed to get the golden sombrero.
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No problem, all he has to do is adjust the way he holds his hands, or quiet his bat waggle, or reduce that leg kick.
Just little things.
Nothing that won't be corrected by opening day.
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http://vineline.mlblogs.com/2015/01/18/2015-cubs-convention-down-on-the-farm/
Nice detailed vineline recap of the down-on-the-farm session.
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http://vineline.mlblogs.com/2015/01/18/2015-cubs-convention-down-on-the-farm/
Nice detailed vineline recap of the down-on-the-farm session.
That was a very good summary. Somebody either recorded the session or they write/type really, really fast.
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What was your favorite team when you were younger?
Russell didn’t watch a lot of TV growing up. He played outside. But he’d have to say the Red Sox, even though he’s from Florida. He was actually more of a football fan. He wears 27 partly because of Edie George. He loved the Tennessee Titans.
Russell is in the Chicago Cubs organization, and he's a fan of the Titans? Man, I feel bad for him.
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Interesting that Madison is still pretty optimistic about Candelario. They've always liked him. His poor numbers last year involved something like a .254 BABIP, so maybe some bad luck going on. Still, he was only .291 BABIP the year before, so when you're a low BABIP for a couple of years, there may be some reason for that. He'll be 21 this year, probably time to start hitting if he's going to make it as a hitter. The odd thing is that his low BABIP profile doesn't exactly result from being an extreme ground ball guy like Almora or anything like that.
McLeod's mentioning Rademacher is interesting. Hitting 10 HR in his breakout power year isn't exactly power-exciting. But otherwise he's been a solid average-OBP guy for two straight years. If he could boost his HR production at HR-friendly Tennessee, he could look interesting as a possible big-league utility outfielder.
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I believe that the Cubs have a system in place for tracking every AB of every minor leaguer now, and with more detail about each of those ABs. And they have more actual eyes on the performance and progress of players than in the past. It's worth remembering that this regime, while highly sophisticated when it comes to sabremetrics, also firmly believes in subjective scouting judgments as well. So their evaluation will go beyond the raw numbers that fans see. Whether the assessment proves correct or not, it's not surprising that there will be guys who catch the attention of the Cubs leadership even when their conventional stats aren't all that interesting.
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Advanced stats and scouting should always be used together. The hope is that the advanced stats can help explain what a scout is seeing or why something isn't working.
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Candelario is an example of how young prospects can sometimes get too much credit for being young. Candelario was considered a top-10 or top-12 system guy a year and two years ago. His performance neither season had been notably great; .740 OPS in Boise, .740 OPS in Kane County, both without attractive defense. But because he was young, we always assume the youngest guys will improve greatly.
Sometimes they don't. Hopefully we'll see that Gleybar does.
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You leave Torres alone, go jinx somebody else.
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Yeah, fall in love with Edwin, why don't you, craig.
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Baez's K-rate is around 50% in winter ball.
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Baez's K-rate is around 50% in winter ball.
You obviously haven't followed his history from league to league.
He ALWAYS starts out slow, takes about 200 AB to figure out the lay of the land, then makes the needed adjustments and dominates.
No reason at all to be concerned about his struggles there when he has not yet come close to those 200 AB.
He's still adjusting.
The guy is going to be the opening day starter in 2015 and everyone will forget all about his little K-kerfufle.
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Baez's K-rate is around 50% in winter ball.
Just curious is that going by PA or AB and does it include the playoffs?
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Just curious, do you still think Baez is as likely to post an MLB K rate of 15% as 40%?
You used to object to my read of Castillo's market value too. I called it in December, and now indeed we see we have to wait and hope for ST injuries to create demand. Are you almost ready to ask forgiveness on that one?
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as far as I see that's Ab and includes his 0-9 with 6ks in the playoffs... I'm not sure I'd include him in the top 5 right now of Cubs prospects...
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Just curious, do you still think Baez is as likely to post an MLB K rate of 15% as 40%?
You used to object to my read of Castillo's market value too. I called it in December, and now indeed we see we have to wait and hope for ST injuries to create demand. Are you almost ready to ask forgiveness on that one?
1.) Yes. I'll take Baez over Gary Sanchez.
2.) I'm not sure what you think I thought Castillo was going to bring back, but Corporan brought back a better prospect than Ruggiano I still think your wrong. If all the Cubs were looking for is a non prospect Castillo wouldn't still be a Cubs.
Bitterman where are you getting that? What I see doesn't include the playoff stats on mlb. He had a 16% K rate prior to the 0-9 with 6 K's in the playoffs.
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Callis ranks Schwarber as #3 catching prospect in baseball.
http://m.mets.mlb.com/news/article/107044448/2015-prospect-watch-top-10-catchers
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Per AZ Phil, Cubs have released following 7 minor leaguers--with comments by AZ Phil below.
RHP Josh Davis (2013 NDFA - Belmont U.), LHP Alberto Diaz (2010 IFA - Venezuela), LHP Frailyn Figueroa (2011 IFA - Dominican Republic), LHP Nathan Dorris (2012 17th round - Southern Illinois), RHP Zak Hermans (2013 13th round - Princeton), and RHP Yao-Lin Wang (2009 IFA - Taiwan). and C Lance Rymel (2012 28th round - Rogers State).
Yao-Lin Wang got a $260K bonus in 2008 but he was an "A"-ball swing-man, plus he was going to be a minor league 6YFA post-2015. He was a SP for Team Chinese Taipei in the WBC qualifying tournament a couple of years ago, so he can probably find work in the Taiwan Major League (TML).
Zak Hermans was a polished lower-level swing-man with minimum upside.
Nathan Dorris was a hotshot coming out of HS but was an under-achiever at Vanderbilt when Cubs Minor League Pitching Coordinator Derek Johnson was there, and Dorris ended up transferring to a JC and then ended up at SIU. He started off pretty well this past season, but had a bad 2nd half.
Josh Davis was a polished NDFA senior roster-filler who moved back-and-forth between EXST and wherever he was needed.
Alberto Diaz is a hard-throwing but short LHRP with zero command that I saw a lot of in Extended Spring Training.
Frailyn Figueroa was at EXST, too, but he was out of shape (overweight) and then he strained something and ended up on the 60-day DL.
Lance Rymel functioned as a sort of player-coach at several different levels. Good receiving skills but no bat.
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http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/baseball-joe/blog/cubs-have-reason-to-be-concerned-about-baez-012215
21Ks in 43ABs during regular season. I wouldn't even consider him as a viable 2b option until he proves he can handle AAA for a FULL season. I'm not so sure the starting 2B is even on the roster yet....but you've got to assume it's La Stella.
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The 21K/43AB stats that Morosi used are as listed on the mlb.com site: http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/org.jsp?id=chc (http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/org.jsp?id=chc)
Those listed mlb values, combines with the playoff values, combine for 27K/52AB, 52% K/AB rate. That's what Morosi was working with and bitter man.
Playtwo said the mlb.com site hadn't kept their site updated, and there were some January AB's in which he wasn't K'ing that much (although he wasn't hitting much either).
Blue, where are you getting 16%? I'm guessing that's like 25 January PA? Pooled in with the other samples and that might composite to around 40% for the winter.
So I'm assuming your 16% K is from maybe 25 PA in January where his K-rate dropped?
If I mix in 25 AB of 16% with the other 43 + 9 AB, that would put him right around 40% composite for the winter games.
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I think it was around 37 PA in the playoffs up to the point he went to the Cubs convention. Melee worked with him for 5 days and he's been working on some mechanical stuff. He's better off in AAA until he figures something out.
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You used to object to my read of Castillo's market value too. I called it in December, and now indeed we see we have to wait and hope for ST injuries to create demand. Are you almost ready to ask forgiveness on that one?
Why should he? Until Castillo is trades (or cut) giving a good idea of how other teams valued him, all we know about how other teams value Castillo is that it is not as highly as the Cubs value him.
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Callis ranks Schwarber as #3 catching prospect in baseball.
http://m.mets.mlb.com/news/article/107044448/2015-prospect-watch-top-10-catchers
Being the THIRD best prospect is not particularly encouraging.
I suspect that if you look at the 3rd best prospect at every position over the last 30 years you would find that the majority of them never became serious contributors at the major league level. 30 teams mean no more than 30 starting players at each position (and generally a bit less since for each position generally at least a couple of teams really have no true regular), and while retirement and age-related skill erosion create regular turnover at all positions, that number probably is no more than an average of 3-4 per year per position (30 teams, to turn over the entire collection of 30 positions, if you assume 10 year careers for starters, you woulld have an average of three guys a year retiring or aging out of starting rolls or becoming injured), meaning being the third best prospect is simply not all that emcouraging.
Hopefully their evaluation of Schwarber underestimates him.
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Jes - the article says he is the third best catching prospect in the entire MINORS. There are substantially more than 30 teams in the minors
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Schwarber has yet to play above A-Ball. The fact that he is already rated so high despite some defensive questions is more than encouraging. A big season in AA would likely catapult him to the top of the catcher rankings.
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Or if he is unable to stay at catcher, perhaps number one in left field.
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It is pretty impressive to be the third ranked catcher, when no one outside of the Cubs thinks he can actually play the position.
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Jes - the article says he is the third best catching prospect in the entire MINORS. There are substantially more than 30 teams in the minors
The number of teams in the minors is not relevant to my point.
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It is pretty impressive to be the third ranked catcher, when no one outside of the Cubs thinks he can actually play the position.
I would bet that if you looked at the 3rd rated catcher in the minors for each of the last 30 years relatively few of them ever ended up contributing a great deal in the majors. As I wrote, hopefully the rating seriously underestimates him.
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Or maybe it is an abnormally strong crop of catchers. I understand your logic Jes, but I would suggest that it is extremely limited. If we use your line of thinking.....it would suggest that anyone rated 3rd or below will never be useful in the majors. I'm sure there have been a few players rated lower who have had decent major league careers.
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Or maybe it is an abnormally strong crop of catchers. I understand your logic Jes, but I would suggest that it is extremely limited. If we use your line of thinking.....it would suggest that anyone rated 3rd or below will never be useful in the majors.
No, that is not at all what I suggested, nor does it logically flow from what I wrote.
I am quite high on Shwerber and believe he has a very good chance of being a significant contributor for the Cubs.
I am much, much less high on various prospect ratings.
Nothing I wrote suggested I believe Shwerber is anything less than a top prospect, or that I doubt he will make it to the majors and do well.
My point was and remains that the rating, particularly a rating of the 3rd best catching prospect, is not something to get excited about. Too many folks here sometimes seem to be more excited with how various prosepct ratings evaluate the Cub farm system or the Cub prospects than how the actual team does or is likely to do. Those ratings have no outcome on either. Third best catching prospects likrly seldom (not never, but seldom)make much difference, and I strongly suspect the rating is more than a bit off.
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Schwarber is another guy with a lot of potential.
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8 positions x 3 = 24 top-3 position players. Within the top 24 ranked position players in any year, some succeed, some fail. And a lot end up being kind of average.
As jes suggests, rankings are just rankings by media guys who do the rankings. The smartest baseball guys don't know what will happen, and the ranking guys aren't any more prescient.
Rankings change pretty rapidly. On that list, they've got Max Pentacost, #11 pick who hit as well as hoped, sitting only at 9th. I'd think a #11 pick who has no problem adapting to pro pitching is probably pretty valuable property. Schwarber's valuation now is way higher than it was 10 months ago.
Within our own system, guys who are in the 11-20 range, Stinnett, Sands, perhaps Jiminez, they haven't done much yet, but they seem much more possible to jump a ton than when we've had guys like Lake sitting at 12th. Everything changes.
If Schwarber shows confirmation defensively that he will be a catcher, while continuing to hit, he'll be higher than 3rd next year.
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I guess my point is that IF they thought he could play catcher, then he would be far and away the #1 catcher on the list. The fact that they aren't sure he can play catcher and he is still ranked as the #3 catcher only on his bat is pretty impressive.
Swihart and Afaro aren't exactly bad prospects either. This isn't like Vogelbach being the #8 1B prospect, because the prospect list stinks.
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Jes - the article says he is the third best catching prospect in the entire MINORS. There are substantially more than 30 teams in the minors
All the teams have at least a AAA, a AA, an A team, that makes 90. Some teams have more than one A. Most have R Rookie leagues. Some have Dominican and Arizona development squads. Probably trends toward 120 minor league rosters.
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Agree. The others are strong prospects too, without the positional uncertainty. If Schwarber answers the catching question affirmatively, he'll become a relatively can't-miss guy.
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The number of teams in the minors is not relevant to my point.
True. You failed to make a point. But you indicated that the fact that there were only 30 MLB teams were somehow relevant to the discussion, or presumably you wouldn't have included in your post.
I have never seen the figures, so perhaps you know them better than I, but every year there are more than a hundred or so at every position in the minors, and I suspect that the guy rated third among that one hundred or so is more likely to do well in the majors than those rated substantially below them.
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True. You failed to make a point. But you indicated that the fact that there were only 30 MLB teams were somehow relevant to the discussion, or presumably you wouldn't have included in your post.
I have never seen the figures, so perhaps you know them better than I, but every year there are more than a hundred or so at every position in the minors, and I suspect that the guy rated third among that one hundred or so is more likely to do well in the majors than those rated substantially below them.
Sorry if you could not catch the point, davep, but it was there.
There are 30 teams in the majors. It is only in the majors that a player (or prospect once he becomes a player) can ever contribute in the majors.
The number of minor league teams is utterly irrelevant to the question.
There is a limited turnover among those 30 teams, and a limited number of players in any year at any position, or over any given period of time (whether five years or a decade or any other period) who are going to meaningfully contribute at the major league level.
Add another ten thousand minor league teams, and it will not alter the picture.
I have to ask, do you ever play cards? If so, do you ever win?
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True. You failed to make a point. But you indicated that the fact that there were only 30 MLB teams were somehow relevant to the discussion, or presumably you wouldn't have included in your post.
I have never seen the figures, so perhaps you know them better than I, but every year there are more than a hundred or so at every position in the minors, and I suspect that the guy rated third among that one hundred or so is more likely to do well in the majors than those rated substantially below them.
Every team has 7-10 farm clubs, and most carry three catchers. So there are probably between 600 and 800 minor league catchers each year.
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Cubs are totally typical, with 4 full season and two short-season. 6 states teams, plus whatever Dominican/Venezualen groups. Certainly being one of the three more promising catchers among all those teams and pro catchers is relatively good.
There aren't often three of the thirty teams that are introducing a rookie as a primary starter at a given position.
The average starter doesn't remain so for 10 years, though, at any one position. So it's probably true that the average turnover per year is a little greater than 3/30.
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The average starter doesn't remain so for 10 years, though, at any one position. So it's probably true that the average turnover per year is a little greater than 3/30.
Agreed. It is a LITTLE greater than 3/30... and you appear to be the only one who has commented here here who might be able to correctly calulate the odds of drawing to an inside straight.
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This from the inventor of Jesmath.
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I understand your logic Jes
There's something you don't see every day.
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No surprise, but Keith Law ranks the Cubs farm system as #1:
1. Chicago Cubs
Take a moment to recover from your surprise ... The past 12 months have seemed more like a coronation for the Cubs than one for the teams that actually played in the World Series. The hype around their system is justified by the talent in it, with the strongest collection of top-shelf hitting prospects I can remember since I started working in baseball. They have someone coming at just about every position other than catcher and first base, and most of them fare well both in traditional evaluation and in analysis of their performance to date.
The Cubs' draft strategy under the Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer regime has been to grab a polished hitter in the first round and load up on arms later. That, along with the trade of Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel that netted two more top hitting prospects, has produced a system that's full of hitting prospects but still a bit light on the pitching side. The first wave of bats reached the majors in the middle of 2014, with more coming this year, but there won't be enough at-bats for Javier Baez and Jorge Soler and Arismendy Alcantara and Addison Russell and Kyle Schwarber and Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo … and that's not even everyone who might end up pushing for playing time. The Cubs are in prime position to flip a young hitter for a pitcher or even to swing a bigger deal, especially if they want to try to set themselves up to win the NL Central in 2016. There are young starting pitching prospects here to like, led by 20-year-old Duane Underwood, but they're all a few years away.
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12211903/chicago-cubs-no-1-farm-system-rankings-2015-mlb?ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_law_2015rankingall30farmsystems
His top 100 list is out tomorrow.
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Other teams in the division:
7. Pirates: They still have several players likely to help the major league club in 2015, and just about every affiliate should have at least one potential star on its Opening Day roster.
13. Cardinals: You'd have to go down to rookie ball to find a potential star in the system -- they lost one, Oscar Tavares, to tragedy last autumn -- yet the Cardinals can run 15 or more names who project to have significant, major league roles as average regulars or quality extra guys.
17. Reds: This could easily be a top-10 system in a year, given how many upside players are in the organization, from relievers working as starters to toolshed, Latin American position players. There is very little 2015 impact, however, and nearly all of their top 10 prospects have some significant risk associated with them.
28 Brewers: Years of bad drafts and struggles developing pitching have caught up with the Brewers, who've had just two draft picks in the first five rounds -- Brett Lawrie and Yovani Gallardo -- pan out since they took Ryan Braun in 2005. Jimmy Nelson might join that group, but it's hard to sustain a low-payroll club without a productive farm system.
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MLB.com top SS prospects. Russell #3.
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/107655298/prospect-watch-top-10-shortstops
MLB.com top 3B prospects. Bryant #1.
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/107421602/prospect-watch-top-10-third-basemen
MLB.com top 1B prospects. Vogelbach #8.
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/107150022/2015-prospect-watch-top-10-first-basemen
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Heh, their top 1B prospect has never played a game there...classic...
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Heh, their top 1B prospect has never played a game there...classic...
This is an example of the defensive spectrum, which we discussed earlier. A move to 1B is the least degree of difficulty on the spectrum, so doesn't really matter if the guy hasn't played there before in minors.
If the Cubs had announced this off-season that Bryant was moving to corner OF, he would be the #1 corner OF prospect in MLB. (Much better that he's the #1 3B prospect).
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MLB.com top SS prospects. Russell #3.
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/107655298/prospect-watch-top-10-shortstops
MLB.com top 3B prospects. Bryant #1.
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/107421602/prospect-watch-top-10-third-basemen
MLB.com top 1B prospects. Vogelbach #8.
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/107150022/2015-prospect-watch-top-10-first-basemen
Shwarber is #3 catcher too.
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Who are SS's 1 and 2, ahead of Russell?
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Carlos Correa (Astros) and Francisco Lindor (Indians). Correa I buy, but Lindor is a stretch.
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Shwarber is #3 catcher too.
At no time have I ever suggested Schwarber is not a very promising prospect, or that he has little to no chance to be a high impact catcher in the majors. My point was, and remains, that it makes little sense to get very excited about him because he is rated as the 3rd best prospect in the minors at that position. The same would also be true of Russell, for the same reasons. This does not mean there are not many reasons to be excited about their futures, but merely that the fact either of them show up as the 3rd best prospect at any particlar position is not somethingto get too excited about.
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Keith Law's top 100 probably isn't going to be all that popular here...but keep in mind he did rate them as having the best minor league system. Four Cubs are in his top 100:
1. Bryant
4. Russell
14. Soler
90. Schwarber
Law favors high ceiling prospects, which explains why Almora and McKinney aren't there (though you could argue that Almora isn't there because he just hasn't shown that he's good enough to be there). Pitchers who will likely end up as relievers rarely make his list, and I think he's suggested in the past that he thinks that's where Edwards will end up. And usually doesn't give much credit to bat-only prospects, which is how he views Schwarber.
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12211713/top-100-prospects-2015-including-kris-bryant-byron-buxton-more-mlb
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There are over one hundred catchers in the minors. Having a guy rated by experts to be the third best prospect among them is sufficient reason for me to be excited.
To each his own.
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Clearly you're delusional.
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I think that Schwarber rating is absurd. No way there are 89 prospects better than Schwarber. I would put him in the low twenties at worst.
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Well over 100, or even 200...
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One thing you can say about Keith Law is that he is supremely confident in his opinions. He's confident, pretty much without reservation, that Schwarber can't be a catcher and I guess that C.J. Edwards can't be a starter. He may be right, of course. But I prefer evaluations that allow for a tad more humility (that is to say, more than zero).
But Cub fans should still be very pleased with the fact that he projects Soler "as a 25-30 homer guy who hits .270-.280 with solid OBP ... which would make him maybe the Cubs' third- or fourth-best hitter in their suddenly loaded lineup."
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But I prefer evaluations that allow for a tad more humility
Kind of how I feel about posters. And people in general. Probably why I'm not a fancy ESPN commentator.
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I think that Schwarber rating is absurd. No way there are 89 prospects better than Schwarber. I would put him in the low twenties at worst.
I would figure Law belives Schwarber has no chance to stick at catcher with that ranking. His bat as a catching prospect would make him much higher. Although I think the production he has already shown should rate him higher.
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He comes out and says it:
90) Kyle Schwarber, C/LF AGE: 21DOB: 3/5/93B/T: L/RHT: 6-0WT: 235 AVG: .344OBP: .428OPS: 1.061HR: 18SB: 5 lastname Schwarber was the fourth overall pick in the 2014 draft as a power-hitting catcher from Indiana University, then went and destroyed three different leagues after signing, ending the year in high-A just a few months out of college. Schwarber has very little chance to catch in the majors, as he's a poor receiver and is very muscular for the position, but his bat should make him a regular at another position, possibly first base, but most likely left field.
He has a chance to end up with a plus hit tool and plus power, showing much better plate discipline this summer than he did as an amateur, although his front side can get soft and he can be vulnerable to soft stuff away because his typical swing is so hard. If he hits .280 or so with a strong OBP and 25-30 homers, he'll be a good everyday player even if he ends up as a bad left fielder, and the Cubs certainly believe he has a chance to exceed even those marks.
Top level: High Class A (Daytona) | 2014 rank: Ineligible
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One thing you can say about Keith Law is that he is supremely confident in his opinions. He's confident, pretty much without reservation, that Schwarber can't be a catcher and I guess that C.J. Edwards can't be a starter. He may be right, of course. ....
As jes has aptly noted, what some media evaluators think or evaluate doesn't matter. Whether a player can or can't play does.
But I think Law's ranking is somewhat reasonable given the premise. Given the premise that Schwarber can't catch, and also that he'll be at best pretty below-average defensively in left, then he's got to be an all-bat player. Need to be a really, really good hitter to be a top-40 prospect if you're a DH or a defensive liability even in LF. I'm certainly hoping that Schwarber is that good of a bat, and in this period where hitting seems to be so difficult, I'm pretty optimistic that he will be. But it isn't easy to be so good a hitter that you're a real value even if you're kinda useless defensively.
Obviously I hope the "can't catch" premise is faulty, and that he WILL be able to catch quite well. Or that he'll be perfectly average in left even if he can't catch.
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Law can be an insufferable prick, but he does do some actual scouting of players. I don't know how much he has seen of the Cubs prospects since he moved back east. I still like Kiley McDaniel more than anybody right now, but they all fall short of Jason Parks.
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I just cant trust a dude named Kiley.
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There are over one hundred catchers in the minors. Having a guy rated by experts to be the third best prospect among them is sufficient reason for me to be excited.
To each his own.
In the last 20 years how many of those rated as the 3rd best catching prospect in a year ended up seriosly contributing in the majors?
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I have no idea. How many?
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Why do you all waste your time?
Seriously.
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LOL, OK, so I googled for a while...here's the past 10 years...
2014 - Jorge Alfaro
2013 - Evan Gattis
2012 - Travis d'Arnaud
2011 - Hank Conger
2010 - Buster Posey
2009 - Carlos Santana
2008 - Geovany Soto
2007 - Neil Walker
2006 - Russell Martin
2005 - Brian McCann
I think the point is made.
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LOL, OK, so I googled for a while...here's the past 10 years...
2014 - Jorge Alfaro
2013 - Evan Gattis
2012 - Travis d'Arnaud
2011 - Hank Conger
2010 - Buster Posey
2009 - Carlos Santana
2008 - Geovany Soto
2007 - Neil Walker
2006 - Russell Martin
2005 - Brian McCann
I think the point is made.
Do you have a link to the ratings?
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LOL, OK, so I googled for a while...here's the past 10 years...
2014 - Jorge Alfaro
2013 - Evan Gattis
2012 - Travis d'Arnaud
2011 - Hank Conger
2010 - Buster Posey
2009 - Carlos Santana
2008 - Geovany Soto
2007 - Neil Walker
2006 - Russell Martin
2005 - Brian McCann
I think the point is made.
Neil Walker may be the most interesting of those, since he has not played a single inning as C in the majors, and up until that rating he had never played a single inning in the minors as anything other than a C, and after that rating never played catcher again.
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Nicely done there, Dave.
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Jes has a point. Why get excited about someone that will might never even be as good as Posey.
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Jes has a point. Why get excited about someone that will might never even be as good as Posey.
Yeah, he might turn out to just be another Russell Martin or Brian McCann. ;)
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Posey sucks so bad they move him to first base a lot.
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Do you have a link to the ratings?
http://www.google.com/
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to be fair, I simply googled "catching prospects by year" and got several rankings, then I started googling by year, such as "catching prospects 2006", etc.
There were several sites used, but Baseball America was the primary one, it seemed.
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And yes, Neil Walker surprised me as well...
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There was also at least one year when neither of the top two catching prospects ended up amounting to anything, while the 3rd best did, which is one of the reasons I would really like to see the complete ranking lists.
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Damn Dave that was cold.
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Damn Dave that was cold.
Yes, yes it was.
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I honestly didn't expect it to be that convincing...
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I honestly didn't expect it to be that convincing...
Without looking at who was also ranked 1st and 2nd, and also looking at the prior 10 years, it isn't that convincing.
Hence my request for the links.
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Is your google broken?
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2005 - 1) Mauer, 2) Barton, 3) McCann, 4) Mathis
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2005-top-100-prospects-248/
2006 - 1) Saltalamacchia, 2) Clement, 3) Martin, 4) Walker
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2006/26660.html
2007 - 1) Clement, 2) Saltalamacchia, 3) Walker, 4) Iannetta, 5) Montero
http://projectprospect.com/article/2006/10/20/top-5-catching-prospects
(or, if you like...)
2007 - 1) Saltalamacchia, 2) Clement, 3) Montero, 4) Suzuki, 5) Iannetta
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2007/263445.html
2008 - 1) Wieters, 2) Clement, 3) Soto, 4) Towles
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2008/265658.html
2009 - 1) Wieters, 2) Posey, 3) Santana, 4) Flowers
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=3840355 (Keith Law)
(or, if you prefer...)
2009 - 1) Wieters, 2) Posey, 3) Santana, 4) Montero
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2009/267699.html
2010 - 1) Montero, 2) Posey, 3) Santana, 4) Norris
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-100-prospects-no-1-20-9546/
(or, if you prefer...)
2010 - 1) Montero, 2) Santana, 3) Posey, 4) Flowers
http://www.hardballtimes.com/baseballs-top-catching-prospects-2010-outlooks-and-future-stat-projections/
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Keith Law's Cubs top 10:
1. Kris Bryant, 3B
2. Addison Russell, SS
3. Jorge Soler, RF
4. Kyle Schwarber, C
5. Gleyber Torres, SS
6. Billy McKinney, OF
7. Albert Almora, CF
8. Duane Underwood, RHP
9. C.J. Edwards, RHP
10. Jen-Ho Tseng, RHP
http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/post/_/id/3242?ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_law_cubstop10prospects
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That is an interesting list. I have a man crush on Torres, but that is way to high for me.
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Overview
The majors' best farm system is loaded with potential, or even likely, stars, with their top six all projecting as at least average everyday players, along with a number of other prospects outside their top 10 -- e.g., outfielder Eloy Jimenez (15) and catcher/third baseman Victor Caratini (13) -- who have a decent shot to join them. The system still isn't where it should be in terms of potential starting pitchers, although Underwood took a big step forward this year, holding 94-95 mph deep into starts and showing a plus curve and plus change, just not all at the same time.
After taking Schwarber (whom I've listed as a catcher but don't believe will remain there) with the No. 4 overall pick this year, the Cubs pounded pitching, including three high-upside high school arms in lefty Carson Sands (16), right-hander Dylan Cease (14) and lefty Justin Steele (11). Cease blew out his elbow in the spring and won't pitch until mid- to late 2015. Lefty Rob Zastryzny (18) and right-hander Jake Stinnett (17) could end up as fifth starters or solid relievers, while Corey Black (17) now appears destined for a full-time bullpen role. Bijan Rademacher (20) sounds like he should be on the Dutch Olympic speed-skating squad, but he's a very solid fourth outfield prospect who has a little bit of everything without one plus tool.
2015 impact
Bryant should be the rookie of the year favorite in the NL, and if he's not the Cubs' Opening Day third baseman, I'm calling service time #shenanigans. Soler will be their everyday right fielder; Russell might be ready by the All-Star break, although his playing time will also depend on whether Javier Baez gets comfortable at the plate. Edwards might break in this year as a starter, but I'm skeptical he can remain a starter.
The fallen
I've never loved Pierce Johnson's (12) arm action because it puts tremendous stress on his elbow (from the valgus force exerted on the joint by his late, hard pronation), but he's also shown no improvement in his fastball command and missed half of last year with a hamstring injury. He was supposed to be a polished college pitcher who could move somewhat quickly to the majors, but walking a batter every other inning in Double-A at age 23 was a big step back, and he's still searching for an effective third pitch between a cutter and a changeup.
Sleeper
Of all of the young arms in the system, Steele made the strongest impression this summer, an athletic, 6-foot-1 southpaw with good downhill plane and some advanced feel for pitching, especially for a Mississippi high school product. His fastball is in the upper 80s now -- but should peak in the low 90s -- and where Sands has more present velocity Steele has better projection.
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Interesting list. He mentions both Stinnett and Black as his #17; I assume either one of them is 19 on his list, or else one is 18 with Z bumped down from 18 to 19. Interesting thoughts there:
1. Almora at #7, behind the 6 good hitters, "with their top six all projecting as at least average everyday players." Seems fair. Almora is still very high at 7, but until/unless he learns to hit he's probably more of a high-risk guy, without the "at least average everyday player" tag being true. He's got a great chance to improve a lot offensively, but it's certainly at least possible that he'll just continue to pound grounders, take no walks, and hit not enough HR's to become an everyday guy.
2. The notes on Pierce Johnson's arm mechanics and perceived injury risk. We'll see. But regardless of the injury risk, the reality that Johnson was really wild this year is a legit worry. Hard to be a good big-league starter if you can't control the fastball and are walking lots of guys.
3. Interesting that he projects Steels more favorably than Sands, and has Underwood as his top pitcher.
4. After Almora, 10 of his next 12 (in spots 8-19) are pitchers, with only Caratini and Eloy interrupting the run of pitchers. I'm not arguing.
5. Interesting that he's so high on Caratini, hope he's right. He's also still hanging in there on Corey Black, Law had him in his top 10 last year.
6. As usual, Blackburn is outside of that pool of ten pitchers and top-20 guys.
7. Surprised to see Rademacher again slipping into another top-20. Would be really cool if, given another offseason to prioritize adding power and an offseason to target getting more lift, just having matured another year at age 23, and now playing in a much more HR-friendly park and league, if he might not jump his power numbers significantly this year. He's hit 4 and 10 the last two years, hard to get very excited. But if he jumped that to 15+, he'd look increasingly promising.
Thanks for the comments, Dave.
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So if Schwarber becomes the top rated Catching prospect would it not be impressive because other top rated Catching prospects before him failed?
Take the ratings for what they are worth. Success is not guaranteed for any top rated prospect. Failure is also not promised simply because a player wasn't drafted in the 1st round.
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Yes, yes it was.
ICE COLD
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Law is a upside guy so it isn't shocking that he has Underwood as his #1 pitching prospect.
He's too high on Torres, too low on Stinnett.
The fact he has Tseng at #10 is interesting, because he isn't Law's type of pitcher.
He's been saying that about Johnson and the mechanics since the Cubs drafted him. Johnson's arm has been healthy so far (knocking on all the wood I can find, because he is a pitcher) the control and lack of a third pitch are worrisome.
Cartini has gotten some decent love on prospects list, so Law is just adding to it.
Steele over Sands isn't surprising for Law. I'd take Sands or Stinnent over Steele, but Steele might have more upside because of the fastball.
Radenmacher love I don't get.
I want to be high on Almora, but I'm just worried about his approach and too much weak contact. Hopefully he can change it.
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Rademacker is a David DeJesus type of player. Does most everything well. Does nothing outstanding. If his hitting falters even a little, he will disappear from the radar.
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Not very many guys start the season in a full-season league at age 18, as will Gleyber Torres. And, not just 18, but a young 18 as he turned 18 a month ago and will play the entire season at age 18--and then some. Won't turn 19 until December.
Even Starlin Castro did not play full-season ball until age 19. Will be interesting to see if Torres can hold his own with that challenge.
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How old is he in Jes years? He would be so close to 18 we could still consider him 17!
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So if Schwarber becomes the top rated Catching prospect would it not be impressive because other top rated Catching prospects before him failed?
If most of them failed, yes such a rating would not be very impressive.
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All bad major leaguers were probably 18 and promising once!
Ronny Cedeno was in full-A at 18, although he didn't start there. I'd thought Neifi was, too (albeit not with us); but now the statistics site shows otherwise. (I wonder if he and many others who listed as 18 at the time were age frauds? Or maybe I'm just confusing him with somebody else.)
Jae Ha and Hak Lee didn't do Midwest League till they were 19. Both are examples that guys who are good teenagers in Midwest don't necessarily improve, despite their youth. I think Chirinos wasn't Midwest until 19, either.
One Cubs position prospect that comes to my mind (I'm probably forgetting somebody) who started and played full season in Midwest at 18 is Felix Pie.
Castro didn't do full-season till 19, but then he started right out at Daytona, and then Tennessee, at 19. Pretty impressive. And didn't just go there; he hit very well at both. Different thing to be young-for-league versus also being good-for-league at the same time.
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Different thing to be young-for-league versus also being good-for-league at the same time.
But you can't be both until you are first young for the league. He may still flame out and never even reach AA, but making full season at age 18 is promising.
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2005 - 1) Mauer, 2) Barton, 3) McCann, 4) Mathis....
Thanks. I have some reading to do.
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I thought the OFer Jiminez was supposed to be the stud of that group?
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But you can't be both until you are first young for the league. He may still flame out and never even reach AA, but making full season at age 18 is promising.
I don't think one should get too excited about a guy merely because he is only 18 playing in a full season league and rated the Cubs 5th best prospect.
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Jimenez has a ton of physical tools, but needs more development. Torres is more of a finished product with less tools. He is from the same development program as Barrato who was traded for Donalson this off season and compared well to him.
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But you can't be both until you are first young for the league. He may still flame out and never even reach AA, but making full season at age 18 is promising.
He should be all right unless there are warning signs, like being selected third best catcher in the minors.
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Jimenez has a ton of physical tools, but needs more development. Torres is more of a finished product with less tools. He is from the same development program as Barrato who was traded for Donalson this off season and compared well to him.
Eloy had some health problems last summer. Anybody remember what they were, and whether they will have any lasting impact? His actual game stats don't look good (.227/.268/.635) Nothing notably good (walked little too little; K'd a little much; average kind of low; power not good enough.) But no real red-flags either. 32K/150AB, not good for rookie league but hardly a big problem. 10 walks in 150 AB, not good but not terrible. Grounded out too much, but not extreme at all. Didn't show wow power (.367 slugging), but 13 of 34 hits for extra bases, that's not bad. Hopefully he'll be 100% healthy this year and be able to drive his swing with more stability and power, and he'll start to show some hitting authority.
But, 6'4" guys tend to have a lot of strike zone to cover, and it's really hard when you're so tall. Hitting is the hardest skill to scout, and it's hard to guess whether he might have it or not.
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As we all know, never count your prospects before they hatch.
On the other hand, once they hatch, make sure they count.
http://www.nbcnews.com/science/weird-science/study-suggests-baby-chicks-can-count-left-right-n297376
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It was my understanding that Jiminez had an ankle injury in extended spring training that bothered him all year. I think it was CubsDen that reported that he seems to be totally recovered now.
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MLB Network is unveiling MLB.com's top 50 prospects right now.
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I don't think one should get too excited about a guy merely because he is only 18 playing in a full season league and rated the Cubs 5th best prospect.
Some HS first rounders do not begin their season following the draft in full season ball at age 19---and Torres will be doing that at 18. Pretty special. Age to level of play is often one of the hallmark indicators of special prospect status.
You should get at least a little excited about that but, yes, be careful of things you get "too excited" about.
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Almora - 57
Schwarber - 49
Edwards - 47
Soler - 21
Russell: - 5
Bryant - 2
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I don't think one should get too excited about a guy merely because he is only 18 playing in a full season league and rated the Cubs 5th best prospect.
Agreed, completely. I have never expressed any excitement at all about him.
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My absurdly early Top 20 prospects for 2016, assuming Bryant and Soler are no longer eligible (duh!) and Rivero, Beeler and Jokisch won't be eligible unless they have bad years in AAA:
Russell, Schwarber, Torres, Edwards, McKinney
Johnson, Stinnett, Underwood, Almora, Sands
Tseng, Caratini, Zagunis, Jimenez, Clifton
Vogelbach, Steele, Zastryzny, Cease, Hannemann
That looks like a top five farm system to me, even before adding 2015 draft picks and IFA signings. If Russell somehow loses his rookie status, I'd put it in the 6-8 range.
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And, of course, that list has no one from the 2015 draft, or the 2015 IFA signing period. There are reports that the Cubs have unofficial agreements with three or four of the top ranked prospects from that class.
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Heh heh, fun. Agree, good chance to remain very high level.
Russell is critical for being super-highly rated, probably. (Heh, or going nuts and signing Moncado somehow....!) Super high-rank typically requires some star/superstar candidates near the top. Fair chance that Russell won't again be listing as a top 3-5 guy next winter, either because he doesn't play that great, or because he does and graduates.
Similar may apply for Edwards and/or Johnson. If they stay in the minors long enough to remain on next winter's prospect rankings, that may mean they aren't having real great years and won't have a lot of top-system reputation.
Of course, that may not be true for either them or for Russell.... if things go well for the big-league team. If the starting rotation stays healthy and strong, and the bullpen is doing very well as we hope, then perhaps even if Edwards or Johnson have very fine seasons, they still might not get called up into a pennant race. Same for Russell, if Casto and Bryant are healthy and productive, and if Baez/Alcantara/La Stella are doing well for 2B. Certainly the ideal is that the big-league guys play so well that the minor leaguers just aren't needed even if they do thrive. Win-win.
I'm kinda guessing that Almora will either hit and move up; or if he doesn't he won't still be top ten.
I think the success of the pitchers will really impact the ranking next year. Law's list had 10 pitchers in the 8-19 range in his list; some of those guys won't progress and will fall out of the top 20 for sure; but hopefully several of them step up big-time, and look like really major guys.
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I agree that if Almora doesn't hit well in 2015, he will drop substantially on just about everyone's list.
And when the MLB team becomes good enough to lose the extremely high draft positions that we have enjoyed in the last few years, the middle rounds of the draft MUST perform well if the system is to remain productive. And since the middle rounds of the last few drafts have been largely pitchers, if some of them do not emerge (Stinnett, Cease, Sands, Zastryzny, Underwood, etc.). The system rankings will drop also. The IFA signings could keep them afloat for a while, but an IFA draft could pretty well hamstring that source also.
Of course, that makes the job of providing a steady stream of good players to the MLB team more difficult, but not impossible. The Cardinals have managed to do it for more than a decade. It will be the major test of this Front Office.
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The keys to the long-term success of the Cubs will be scouting and player development. It isn't enough to find good prospects; we also need to mentor them and develop their skills. After 2015, much of the elite talent will be obtained through trades or free agency.
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Baez will not play in the Caribbean Series:
http://muskat.mlblogs.com/2015/01/29/129-baez-wont-play-in-series/
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Baez will not play in the Caribbean Series: http://muskat.mlblogs.com/2015/01/29/129-baez-wont-play-in-series/
In 15 playoff games with Santurce, Baez batted .203 (13-for-64) with two doubles, four RBIs, and four walks. He struck out 18 times.
It doesn't sound as if Santruce will likely be too disappointed in not having him available.
Anyone still thinking he is likely to break camp with the big league club?
Even if he hit .350 with a HR in every 15 AB and only one K in every 5 plate appearances, is there anyone here who would have him in Chicago to start the season if they were GM?
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Yikes, .234 slugging, .250 OBP. Pretty ugly.
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It's okay, Craig. All he needs to do is reduce the leg quick and quiet his bat. Not a big deal. This guy always takes about 200 AB at each level, but then he adjusts and crushes the competition. Nothing left to prove at the AAA level.
He and Bryant both need to start the season with the major league team.
If they don't, it has nothing to do with development, but is entirely because the Ricketts are cheap asses and want to save money several years down the road by delaying arbitration or FA.
.... or at least that is what several folks here have told us so often a person would think that they actually believe such nonsense.
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And that's against inferior pitching.
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And wasn't jiggs the one who in early May last year, before Baez turned it around at Iowa, insisted Baez should be brought up at that time, that he probably wasn't hitting well there because he wasn't challenged and was bored?
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And wasn't jiggs the one who in early May last year, before Baez turned it around at Iowa, insisted Baez should be brought up at that time, that he probably wasn't hitting well there because he wasn't challenged and was bored?
and weren't you the one who said he should be brought up the year before because he was in a learning "sweet spot"?
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Eloy had some health problems last summer. Anybody remember what they were, and whether they will have any lasting impact? ...
It was my understanding that Jiminez had an ankle injury in extended spring training that bothered him all year. I think it was CubsDen that reported that he seems to be totally recovered now.
Sahadev Sharma said that Jiminez "battled shoulder soreness early in the season and a leg issue that shut him down late". Will be fun to see how he can do, assuming he's healthy, this summer. I wonder if he'll impress enough in XSL to play at Eugene, or if they'll keep him at Mesa. I assume the complete facilities in Mesa make it easier both for health/weight work, and for practicing baseball fundamentals. And with shorter trips there is probably more time to work on baseball. But perhaps the improved Eugene facilities will be pretty decent for baseball training, too.
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and weren't you the one who said he should be brought up the year before because he was in a learning "sweet spot"?
No. I even thought when he was brought up last year that it was likely too early.
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Logan Watkins tweeted that he tore his Achilles today.
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Terrible break for him.
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Or tear in his case.
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Well yeah that too . . .
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fangraphs Jeff Sullivan looks at Bryant's contact rate in the minors and why that may be a red-ish flag (good, robust discussion in the comments too):
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kris-bryants-one-offensive-question-mark/
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Callis talks about Schwarber and other Cubs prospects:
http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs/cubs-does-kyle-schwarber-have-what-it-takes-stick-catcher
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Wow. Continued slam of Indiana baseball coaching.
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Wow. Continued slam of Indiana baseball coaching.
Seems well deserved, if your All-American junior catcher had to learn his catching mechanics by watching MLB games on TV.
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I know nothing about the Indiana program, Cubsin, but the program did get to Omaha. I wonder if the head coach wouldn't say, "Yes, it's true. We did not have anyone on staff to specifically work with our catchers." I'd guess Schwarber had a decent hitting coach.
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I think it is just a fact of life. I doubt that there are two many college programs that have a coach who does nothing but specialize in teaching catching.
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I think it is just a fact of life. I doubt that there are two many college programs that have a coach who does nothing but specialize in teaching catching.
You are probably right, but couldn't they find someone to come in for a few days?
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I know nothing about the Indiana program, Cubsin, but the program did get to Omaha. I wonder if the head coach wouldn't say, "Yes, it's true. We did not have anyone on staff to specifically work with our catchers." I'd guess Schwarber had a decent hitting coach.
The hitting coach (Ben Greenspan) was also the catching coach and recruiting coordinator at Indiana. Contrary to Schwarber's comments, he must have been doing a good job because the head coach brought him along with him when he moved to a more prestigious baseball program after the season.
Head coach Tracy Smith is now the head coach at Arizona State and Greenspan was one of three of his assistants that moved with him from Indiana to ASU. Under Smith & Greenspan the Indiana program has also produced another pro catcher that will probably start this season for Oakland (Josh Phegley). How many recent college programs can claim they have a catcher in the majors and another one that's a highly rated MLB prospect? Let alone a Big Ten baseball program?
Maybe Greenspan having to do three jobs (hitting coach, catching coach & recruiting coordinator) limited his time in working to improve Schwarber's inadequacies at the position or maybe there was a personality conflict between the two. Either way Schwarber isn't doing himself any favors by taking shots at his old college program or the coaching staff. Better to just say I've learned a lot from the Cubs coaching staff that has catching experience at the major league level (Mark Johnson) than blaming it on your former coaches at Indiana. Basically saying "it's Indiana's fault that I need a lot to learn about catching" instead of taking at least some of the blame yourself is not a good sign.
http://www.thesundevils.com/SportSelect.dbml?&DB_OEM_ID=30300&SPID=126725&SPSID=749683 (http://www.thesundevils.com/SportSelect.dbml?&DB_OEM_ID=30300&SPID=126725&SPSID=749683)
http://www.thesundevils.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=749683&SPID=126725&DB_LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=30300&ATCLID=209574667&Q_SEASON=2014 (http://www.thesundevils.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=749683&SPID=126725&DB_LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=30300&ATCLID=209574667&Q_SEASON=2014)
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The hitting coach (Ben Greenspan) was also the catching coach and recruiting coordinator at Indiana. Contrary to Schwarber's comments, he must have been doing a good job because the head coach brought him along with him when he moved to a more prestigious baseball program after the season.
There might be other reasons to bring him along to the new job. I suppose any deficiencies in coaching the catching staff could be outweighed by his abilities in coaching hitting or in recruiting coordination.
Or he might have a hot wife.
It certainly would have been more politic to refrain from placing the blame on someone else, but there seems to be little doubt that he learned more about catching from his professional coach than he did from his college coach.
I hope it is enough.
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Bottom line is that Schwarber needs to learn how to say things more diplomatically before he suffers hoof and mouth disease. "I had great coaches at Indiana, but I've learned even more since coming to the Cubs!" Maybe that's what the minors are for (Bull Durham) to learn sports-speak.
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Wow. Continued slam of Indiana baseball coaching.
I don't see the "continual slam".
But Schwarber never really learned how to catch growing up - "I just watched TV and I would see how those guys would catch the ball and I would try to repeat it," he said.
I think this is just a repeat of an old quote from a month ago. And the quote is talking about "growing up", not about Indiana.
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I think we can all agree that Indiana sucks.
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Recruiting is the life blood of college sports. Hitting (for the whole squad) is far more important than improving the catching skills of one player. Even if he had the ability to improve Schwarber's technique, he probably didn't have much time to do it.
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Bonus money and prospect status at the time aside, this is an example of the benefits of signing out of HS. Schwarber would be way more advanced defensively (or his deficiencies conclusively established) by now.
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Of course, out of high school, you have to project (another word for guess) how he will develop both physically and mentally. There is a reason why the washout rate for high school players is substantially higher than for college players.
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Both are true, of course. Schwarber's baseball development would be more advanced had he gone pro right off. He'd not have gotten a $3+ million bonus, though, or gone in the top 5.
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Bonus money and prospect status at the time aside, this is an example of the benefits of signing out of HS. Schwarber would be way more advanced defensively (or his deficiencies conclusively established) by now.
....or he could be out of baseball by now. Schwarber wasn't drafted out of high school and it wasn't because teams bypassed him because they were worried about his commitment to a college program. He was a unheralded recruit that quickly developed in college. He was fortunate in that he went to a program that had none of their catchers returning on the roster(two seniors graduated and a freshman didn't return for the sophomore season). So he was given a chance to play immediately as a freshman, something very few unheralded freshman get to do. To his credit he produced and started the whole season.
If he would have been an undrafted FA signee out of high school, he might have been assigned to a minor league affiliate that had a drafted catching prospect on the roster and his playing time would have been limited. He might not have lasted one season in the organization and be forced to go to an independent league to continue his career. He definitely wouldn't have made $3+ million in pro ball during the three years he spent in college. Going the college route paid off for Schwarber.
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Schwarber excelled as a college Freshman and certainly would have impressed in anybody's minor league camp at age 19.
Truly preposterous is the notion that he might have been released as a pro given his offensive skills at 19. Just think that is ridiculous.
Schwarber is from a small town in far southwest Ohio that is little known as a baseball hotbed. Yes, he was under-recruited but he hit from day one when he left and would have done that anywhere on the planet, college or pro. The advantage of Indiana is that it netted him a $3 plus bonus, which wasn't available out of HS. But, if the poor/non-existent catching instruction he got at Indiana delays his big league arrival by a year, that's a year's delay in arb (and maybe eventual free agency). So, a wash at best as to money.
Schwarber would have received first-rate catching instruction as a 19 year old pro. He did not at Indiana.
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Ben Badler @BenBadler 55s56 seconds ago
Big day at the MLB showcase for Dominican outfielder Starling Heredia. Strong kid with a big arm, loud contact in BP and the game.
This is the kid the Cubs are rumored to be signing and the #1 prospect in IFA for 2016.
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Ben Badler @BenBadler 55s56 seconds ago
Big day at the MLB showcase for Dominican outfielder Starling Heredia. Strong kid with a big arm, loud contact in BP and the game.
This is the kid the Cubs are rumored to be signing and the #1 prospect in IFA for 2016.
Please, please tell me the kid is not a close relative to Felix.
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Felix' dad.
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Runs like Mays; hits like Hayes.
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Almora #38 in BP top 101 prospects.
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BP top 101 link.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25538
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He punches people named Felix.
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The Heredia name is new to me. Here is some BP:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SK_fox6W5fk
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Heredia's stance and bat placement strikes me as similar to Baez'. Now if Baez would just adopt Heredia's simple and quiet swing.
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He punches people named Felix.
Interesting that Russell is ahead of Bryant. Also no CJ Edwards I guess because of injury.
2 Russell
5 Bryant
19 Soler
38 Almora
77 Schwarber
81 McKinney
83 Johnson
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Based on the Baseball Prospectus rankings:
Russell would be the #1 prospect for 28 other teams
Bryant would be the #1 prospect for 26 other teams
Soler would be the #1 prospect for 17 other teams
Almora would be the #1 prospect for 10 other teams
Any one of Schwarber, McKinney and Johnson would be the #1 prospect for 4 other teams
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from the BP chat about the rankings:
-What does the prospect team need to see out of Gleyber Torres for him to crack the Top 101 in 2016?
Top 101 Chat: He was pretty darn close this year -- about as close as you can get without making the cut.
-I noticed CJ Edwards was left off, I assume his injuries and durability were the reasons. If he had played 150 inning last season where where would you have ranked him?
Top 101 Chat: I don't know with specificity, but if durability is removed from the equation the stuff is mid-rotation quality. So maybe as high as the 40s?
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The Cubs farm has been highly regarded. But the headliners from the last two winters will largely either be graduating (Baez, Soler, Alcantara, Hendricks already; Bryant for sure; perhaps Russell, Edwards, Johnson as well) or else struggling enough to lose their buzz (perhaps Almora? Johnson? Possibly Edwards? For recent grads, possibly Baez? And/or Alcantara?)
Almora, Schwarber, McKinney, and Torres are the next group of hitters who will not graduate on all lists.
Edwards, Johnson, Underwood, and Tseng seem to head the lists of pitchers, in whatever order.
I thought it might be fun to try to rank or think about guys who aren't currently top-10 types, but whose progress or lack thereof will impact the reputation of the system a year from now. Most guys who aren't in the top 10-15 now probably never will amount to a lot. But the future reputation of the farm system, and the health of the big-league roster will hinge on some guys outside the top-15 stepping up and emerging as contributors. When as future asset-starts; as future anti-awful starters; as excellent relievers or quality bench/depth guys; or as trade pieces.
Who might be some guys of interest?
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Not including those mentioned:
Sands, Steele, Cease, Null, Zastrizny, Rivero among pitchers.
Zagunis, Jimenez, Mitchell, Galindo, The other Baez, Appletini, Candelario, Hannemann among hitters.
And # 9 draft choice and IFA free agents to be named later.
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Caratini was listed as a sleeper in a couple of places.
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Some wild ones:
1. Rivero:
2. Clifton.
3. Corey Black
4. Paniagua.
None of these four have gotten a lot of discussion this winter, or consideration for top-12 type status. But each has a chance to step up as a contributor of some sort this season. Rivero turns 27 this month, his control is shaky (28BB/65 innings), and he's a reliever when the Cubs already seem somewhat well stocked in good-armed-relievers-who-are-somewhat-wild-and-inconsistent. He's about the same age as Rondon, and older than Grimm or Ramirez. But his fastball velocity, the movement on his fastball, and the bite on his slider sound very good, and 100K/65innings guys don't grow on trees. The bullpen seems pretty crowded, so not sure where chance will come, or if he'll be able to sustain his success from last year, whether in Iowa or in the majors. But somehow there always seem to be opportunities for relievers with good stuff. He'll get a chance if he keeps pitching well.
In the modestly talented Northwest League Clifton didn't get especially high BA ranking or scouting buzz, and certainly his performance was inconsistent and his control spotty. So not sure how much potential is in there. Clifton at draft seemed to profile physically as a rather slender guy. But he's supposed to have a pretty good fastball, and I read that he's filled out a lot since. He'll still open the season at age 19. So I'm hoping that his fastball will be faster and more impressive, and that his control and consistency will each take significant steps forward. He could be the kind of guy who'd take a big step forward, kind of like Underwood did this past season.
Corey Black was kind of a "buzz" guy last winter, and there were rumors that other teams really wanted him, and that he'd looked really good after the Cubs got him for Soriano. This year it would appear that his stuff continued to be very good, but man the control was bad. 71 walks in 121 innings? Yuck. And that was going in the wrong direction, getting worse, not better. Guys can have down years, make some adjustments, and come back better, so perhaps that will be true for Black? Perhaps the control was part of his program to try to emerge as a starting pitcher, working on change and 3rd-4th pitches? So I suppose the hope is that he'll simplify to a fastball/curveball mix (perhaps with several variations within the fastball, 2-seam/4-seam/cutter...), and he'll step it up this year. Certainly seems to have the stuff to be a really nice bullpen arm. But, whether bullpen or rotation, it's hard to be effective or consistent if you're wild and can't locate your fastball. But he certainly has the stuff where if he did sharpen up the control, he could emerge as a value guy.
Paniagua is another guy too wild for excellence. But there were some stretches where he had some very effective games, and scouting-wise he sounds like he's got very good stuff. With a year of pro coaching and pro experience behind him, I wonder if there's a chance that with a fresh start, that he might step up and look really rather good? Doubtful for same reasons as Black; wild guys who can't throw strikes or locate their fastball will always have problems, whether run relief or rotation. But when a guy has that much stuff, and so little experience, I'd think the chance is there for the control and consistency to start catching up to the pure stuff, and you might get another good bullpen candidate.
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How would you like to go through life as the "other Baez"?
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Dillon Maples with health and control could shoot up the lists, not that either has a great chance.
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Stinnett, Norwood, Vogelbach and Dunston. #1 2015 IFA prospect Starling Heredia has been linked to the Cubs.
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Maples! Forgot about him. What happened to him, anyway? Did he have major surgery? TJ? Shoulder? Or something less last summer? Or did they just shut him down because he was stacking failure and they wanted to rework his delivery yet again? But yeah, if he was both healthy and conjured up control, he'd be an interesting breakout guy.
I don't expect Cease will do any serious pitching this summer, and if he throws a few innings in rookie league games it will be to build his arm and confidence, not to blow away hitters. But if he pitches 12 innings, hits low 90's and seems fine in Mesa August, and then impresses the coaches in fall instrux, that could still be enough to get scouts buzzed and still hang in our top-20, poised to then make a jump after 2016 season. .
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How would you like to go through life as the "other Baez"?
For the money that pro athletes make, I would be willing to go through life as "the other Hitler".
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For the money that pro athletes make, I would be willing to go through life as "the other Hitler".
You long to have a life. Period.
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Maples! Forgot about him. What happened to him, anyway? Did he have major surgery? TJ? Shoulder? Or something less last summer? Or did they just shut him down because he was stacking failure and they wanted to rework his delivery yet again? But yeah, if he was both healthy and conjured up control, he'd be an interesting breakout guy.
He broke a rib in the summer and when he came back he still couldn't throw a strike.
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Thanks, good, heh heh healing a rib doesn't quite have the long-term schedule or residual impact that a shoulder or TJ do. But I can't imagine trying to throw strikes with a rib that's still hurting, though.
We'll see what he can do when he comes back.
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I think the Non-Schwarber "other catchers" will be an interesting group.
*Zagunis and Caratini are the serious candidates;
*Amaya, Contreras, Remillard and Johan Mateo outside long-shots.
I think it will be really interesting to see how Caratini and Zagunis look through the summer. Both get projected as variably raw/mediocre/unrefined defensive catchers with variably promising offensive profiles. For both I'd think a full offseason, a full camp, and then a full summer of instruction should go some distance in establishing whether they'll be on track for acceptable defense. A year from now I think the Cubs will have a much better gage on that.
For us as box score fans, of course the offensive progress will be lots easier to track.
If you ignored age and scouting projections, Caratini's offense last year was unexciting (.260's and .270's averages, 5 HR total), but at the same time showed no red flags given his age. Didn't K too much or anything. If a year of maturation and strength adds an extra 5 HR, and everything else stays the same, his offense will look quite good for a catcher. Hope some power grows and the defense progresses really well.
Zagunis the contact hitting and plate discipline looked really good. Hopefully some power will add in, and the defense will move in the right direction. If he's a LFer with no power, not so interesting. But he might be a pretty good hitter.
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How would you like to go through life as the "other Baez"?
It is entirely possible that in five years Javier Baez will be finding out.
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I think Jeffrey Baez is interesting, too, Jes (and Javier MAY continue to have adjustment problems for a good while)
* developing power - 13 HR and 29 XBHs in 267 ABs with about .800OPS in '14
* outperforms his age group - played at Kane County at 20/21 with -1.5 age differential (below league avg.)
* good speed - can steal a bag (around 17-18 in '14) and has the speed to play CF according to most reports
* arm - has a BIG arm with history of assists
Jeffrey Baez has some tools, that's for sure. Will be VERY interesting to watch his performance this season.
Shasson, thanks for your report from "Top 101." Interesting that they describe CJ Edwards as "mid-rotation quality"..."if durability is removed" since Edwards' stats, at least to this point in his minor-league career look like TORP ("if durability is removed"):
* in 240 IP - 140 H, TWO freaking HRs!!!, 299 Ks...sure look like TORP numbers to me
* at AA last year, his trend line basically continued...in 48 IP, 30 H, 46 Ks, 3:1 K to BB ratio
* maybe the most important number is less than .1 for every 9 IP...that's just ridiculous and certainly suggests what most experts say - CJ Edwards can pitch off his FB (with plus off-speed potential) and his FB has VERY late movement that professional hitters don't square up very often...another TORP quality.
* Top 101 is probably more objective than I, but CJ Edwards' numbers continue to be rather ridiculous...let's hope that continues this season and that "durability is removed," too
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When they are talking about mid-rotation starters they are referring to him as a scouting #3. Which is a really good pitcher. They said he would be a top 40 prospect.
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CUBluejays, 2 HRs in 237 innings with 140 hits and 294 Ks actually profile better than a #3, particularly since in 48 IP in AA he continued his stinginess, giving up only 1 HR and 30 hits. All of those numbers suggest some serious, serious stuff!
Not that we wouldn't be happy IF Edwards turns into a solid #3 (they're hard enough to find, particularly cost controlled); however, I'm just saying that Edwards' raw minor-league numbers, "if durability is removed," look like those of a TORP.
Certainly, his command can improve, but a .975 WHIP in 237 minor-league innings is also outstanding.
If durability is not removed and is an issue that obviates his career as a SP, Edwards sure appears to have stuff that will play VERY well out of the pen, too!
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Here is the pitchers ranked in the 40's are their list. Carlos Rodon, Aaron Blair, Henry Owens and Jake Thompson. Those are pretty decent prospects. A scouting #3 would be what most consider a #2 at the major league level. I used to get hung up on it, but after listening to enough podcasts with Parks and McDaniel I just learned to not get hung up on it.
Giolito maybe the only #1 in the minors. #2's on their list would be Bundy through maybe Rodon. That is 18 pitchering prospects. They may cut off the list of #2's even earlier than Rodon.
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Thanks CUBluejays...I see your point. Yeah, I certainly wouldn't rate Edwards over guys like Dylan Bundy (tho' he was out with injury last year).
Guess the rankings show the TREMENDOUS difference between minors and majors! Who makes it big is very hard to project, particularly among pitchers.
Edwards minors numbers have been outstanding...if he becomes a solid #3 at the MLB level, that will work quite nicely.
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I had not realized until this morning that BP had rated four other prospects (including Addison Russell) ahead of Kris Bryant I'm guessing that the fact that three of the four (everybody but Buxton) are SS was a factor, but since it seems everyone else in the baseball world sees Bryant as no worse that #2, it's puzzling to me.
http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs/baseball-prospectus-thinks-four-prospects-are-better-cubs-kris-bryant (http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs/baseball-prospectus-thinks-four-prospects-are-better-cubs-kris-bryant)
For those of you who follow the various prospect-oriented publications/sites closely, I'm curious if you can shed any light on this. Are there tendencies within each of the different scouting/rating sites that distinguish one from another. If so, understanding those tendencies would be helpful in interpreting variations between the rating results. Specifically, what is it about BP that would result in them being such an outlier on Bryant?
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Questions about Bryant's defense must be the main issue.
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I don't know the tendencies. But I assume it could be some confluence of varying valuations of defense and K's/contact.
If somebody thinks Bryant will or should move to OF (and will be a liability at 3rd if he doesn't); has a higher concern regarding the K-rate and thinks that big-league pitchers might stress that further; and perhaps also has stronger concerns that Bryant's minor-league BABIP won't be sustainable in the majors, I could see ranking him "only" #5.
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I think BP puts more into positional value than other sites. The team is headed by somebody new since Parks left, so I don't think there is enough to say what their bias is. Parks like high upside, younger latino players, .
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I think BP puts more into positional value than other sites. The team is headed by somebody new since Parks left, so I don't think there is enough to say what their bias is. Parks like high upside, younger latino players, .
Yeah, defensive spectrum value is huge.
Schwarber at #77. If it was clear Schwarber had catcher defensive value, guessing he'd be near Swihart (#17), Hedges (#23), and Alfaro (#31), no?
If Addison Russell projected as a LFer, where would he likely rank?
There are zero 1B in the top 100.
When some talk about moving Bryant off 3B to LF in order to accommodate Mike Olt, we ignore defensive spectrum value. Also will be a factor down the road for Cubs at SS if Russell, Baez, and Castro all hit. Whatever happens, Cubs are not going to put Addison Russell in LF.
Really key, not just in prospect evaluation, but more importantly in major league lineup construction.
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what is it about BP that would result in them being such an outlier on Bryant?
The difference between a #1 ranking or a #4 ranking is not necessarily very great.
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Yeah, defensive spectrum value is huge.
Schwarber at #77. If it was clear Schwarber had catcher defensive value, guessing he'd be near Swihart (#17), Hedges (#23), and Alfaro (#31), no?
If Addison Russell projected as a LFer, where would he likely rank?
There are zero 1B in the top 100.
When some talk about moving Bryant off 3B to LF in order to accommodate Mike Olt, we ignore defensive spectrum value. Also will be a factor down the road for Cubs at SS if Russell, Baez, and Castro all hit. Whatever happens, Cubs are not going to put Addison Russell in LF.
Really key, not just in prospect evaluation, but more importantly in major league lineup construction.
We certainly wouldn't want to put Russell in left field if it would cause him to lose his ranking as a BP prospect. But once he is in the majors, he loses that anyway. Which leaves only two considerations.
Would moving him to left field hurt his trade value? I can't imagine why, since whoever traded for him could put him at third base if they wanted to.
Would putting him in left field improve the defensive performance of the team, while leaving the offensive performance of the team? If so, why would any responsible manager do otherwise?
What it boils down to is this. If Olt and Russell are going to be in the line up at the same time, one at third base and the other in left field, and IF Olt is the better defensive third baseman and Russell is the better left fielder, what possible reason could there be to play both of them out of position.
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what possible reason could there be to play both of them out of position.
Because it would make Reb right?
Somehow I doubt that reason will be very important with Maddon.
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When some talk about moving Bryant off 3B to LF in order to accommodate Mike Olt, we ignore defensive spectrum value. Also will be a factor down the road for Cubs at SS if Russell, Baez, and Castro all hit. Whatever happens, Cubs are not going to put Addison Russell in LF.
Who the hell talked about moving Kris Bryant off third base for Blind Mike Olt?
Because that would be dumb.
(kinda hoping it was me now)
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You know who it was.
We all know who it was.
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We certainly wouldn't want to put Russell in left field if it would cause him to lose his ranking as a BP prospect. But once he is in the majors, he loses that anyway. Which leaves only two considerations.
Would moving him to left field hurt his trade value? I can't imagine why, since whoever traded for him could put him at third base if they wanted to.
Would putting him in left field improve the defensive performance of the team, while leaving the offensive performance of the team? If so, why would any responsible manager do otherwise?
What it boils down to is this. If Olt and Russell are going to be in the line up at the same time, one at third base and the other in left field, and IF Olt is the better defensive third baseman and Russell is the better left fielder, what possible reason could there be to play both of them out of position.
Russell and Bryant each may have 10 times the career value of Mike Olt---maybe more. Therefore, the presence of Olt should and will have zero impact on where Russell and Bryant play. As elite guys, they will play on the defensive spectrum where they have the most value, provided they are legit solid defensive guys at the more valued position. Everybody who read Bill James 30 years ago understands this and, in most circles, it's a non-issue to this day.
This is also why Cubs are trying to develop Schwarber as a catcher. He is not going to be anything close to the best defensive guy they could find to carch. But, if he can reach the sufficiently solid defensive level, his value is exponentially greater than at the easy end of the defensive spectrum.
Other thing is that guys tend to lose the defensive skills necessary when they are moved off the hard part of the defensive spectrum. Does not take long for that to happen. (James wrote about this too decades ago). Guys like Mike Olt tend to have relatively short careers, so minimizing Bryant's career value at 3B to accommodate Olt for the short-term is a very bad idea.
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I think most people were talking about moving Bryant if you have Russell, Castro and Baez in the INF and hitting well or if Bryant can't handle third. No way would I move Bryant of third for Olt. I think Olt could make a nice bench guy 1B/3B/corner OF and right handed power.
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Defensive spectrum arguments imply that moving Bryant to OF would devalue him. The advantage of 3B over OF blurs when the defense played at 3B is below average.
The practical question is how below-average Bryant's defense needs to be at 3B before a move would be justified.
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I wouldn't move the Gatorade cooler down the bench to accommodate Mike Olt.
What fool is arguing shifting anyone around for Mike Olt?
*checks Reb's post*
Oh, well that explains that.
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The discussion is based upon the hypothetical situation in which both Olt and Bryant are going to play, and one will play third while one will play left field. There are no other options.
In that hypothetical situation, if Olt is the better defensive third baseman, and Bryant is the better left fielder, it would be foolish to play them both both in positions that hurt the overall defense, or at the least, do not help the overall defense as much as possible.
In the hypothetical situation, the defensive spectrum is meaningless, since neither player is going to be traded or benched. No manager in his right mind would injure his defense while leaving his offense unchanged.
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The discussion is based upon the hypothetical situation in which both Olt and Bryant are going to play, and one will play third while one will play left field. There are no other options.
In that hypothetical situation, if Olt is the better defensive third baseman, and Bryant is the better left fielder, it would be foolish to play them both both in positions that hurt the overall defense, or at the least, do not help the overall defense as much as possible.
In the hypothetical situation, the defensive spectrum is meaningless, since neither player is going to be traded or benched. No manager in his right mind would injure his defense while leaving his offense unchanged.
I think the above response reveals how you go adrift on this subject. You are looking at this way too narrowly.
It's not about a narrow hypothetical situation. Actually, it's mostly about how a major league club develops players and puts together a roster for the long haul. It's about avoiding short-term expediency.
Schwarber is the best example because it's the easiest to grasp. His bat will get him in the lineup period. But, Cubs are all in to develop him as a catcher. If he can handle catcher, the incumbent ca tcher will be on his wayout no matter of his defensive superiority. It's about understanding and applying values of the defensive spectrum.
If Bryant handles 3B solidly---and Castro, Russell, and Baez all hit, nobody from that middle infield group is going to LF. Somebody from the group will be traded for a valuable piece elsewhere. You don't put Addison Russell in LF.
A quality SS is not going to be developed as a corner OFer early in his career. How often does that happen?
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No. You have tried to make it that, but the discussion is actually about how two players should be positioned defensively if they are going to be in the same lineup at the same time in one of two positions. You can obfuscate all you want, but it doesn't change the fact that maximizing the defense while holding offense equal is the only thing that makes sense in that situation. Maxims like "never moving a greater prospect to make room for a greater prospect" is meaningless once the prospects become major leaguers.
It would be similar to refusing to shift the third baseman to the other side of second when a lefty pull hitter comes up because he is a "third baseman".
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If you read the initial post, as I said before, the defensive spectrum comes into play "most importantly in major league lineup construction." Not just about prospect status.
If you think this is only about Mike Olt, you're missing the point. It's about maximizing value---and not just short-term. Mike Olt does not have to be in any lineup. That is not a given (thankfully). It's a larger point.
Not sure why you think this notion is an obfuscation. It's a simple, basic concept that most everyone grasps.
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Not sure why you think this notion is an obfuscation.
Because it is.
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2015 - Mike Olt hits well and plays spectacular 3B defense. Kris Bryant hits extremely well and plays adequate 3B defense. Chris Coghlan and Chris Denorfia both play terribly. Maddon puts Olt at 3B and Bryant in LF.
2016 - Mike Olt hits poorly. Billy McKinney tears up the minor leagues and is hitting .380 in AAA in early June. Maddon tries to move Bryant back to 3B, but he's a disaster because his infield skills have deteriorated due to not playing infield for a year. Maddon lets Bryant work through his problems. The mental strain of his defensive problems carries over to the batter's box.
Reb is right. Dave is wrong.
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If you read the initial post, as I said before, the defensive spectrum comes into play "most importantly in major league lineup construction." Not just about prospect status.
I read the post. I just saw no sense to it. The defensive spectrum not only is unimportant in a major league construction, it is absolutely meaningless in the hypothetical construction in discussion.
The fact that Russell can play shortstop as well as other positions is meaningless in a specific game, if you are not going to play him at shortstop that game. The same applies to left field and third base. If you are going to start two players in the game, it makes no sense fail to optimize your defense, as long as your offense remains constant. Do you actually believe that, for a specific game, a player loses value for that specific game if he plays third base poorly rather than left field well? Especially if his alternate plays third base well and left field poorly. If so, I need you to explain how hurting the defense actually helps the team for that game.
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Tactics vs. strategy. Tactically, you play your roster in a way that maximizes defensive value. Strategically, you don't keep two guys on the roster if it means one of them has to move to a non premium defensive position even though he is strong at a premium defensive position. You trade one of them to get maximum value.
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I'm not sure it is that simple. In Castro/Russell/Baez you have players that their bat will still let them be above average at 2B/3B with likely above average to plus defense. In Bryant you have somebody that his bat will play anywhere. If he is below average at third and above average in LF, it might be best for the Cubs/him to play LF. This all changes if the Cubs middle infielders don't pan out or Bryant's defense is better at 3B, but it will take a few years to figure out. Bryant is going to start at 3B for the Cubs this year, but I don't know how long he will stay there.
It is a lot like the Orioles moving Machado to 3B and keeping Hardy.
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A lot of gold-glove defenders were unnecessarily moved down the defensive spectrum.
Want a great defense? Have a 2B and 3B who could have been variably good/decent at SS, but who are way above average at 2B/3B. Have a LFer who could have perhaps been variably good/decent at 3B or CF, but who is way above average in left.
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A lot of gold-glove defenders were unnecessarily moved down the defensive spectrum.
Want a great defense? Have a 2B and 3B who could have been variably good/decent at SS, but who are way above average at 2B/3B. Have a LFer who could have perhaps been variably good/decent at 3B or CF, but who is way above average in left.
Very rare to see a solid defensive SS who can hit that is moved off SS. Machado a rare example.
Sure, a marginal offensive guy like Darwin Barney might be moved to 2B but Barney is the type who gets moved to accommodate better players. The masterstroke in this area was Earl Weaver moving Cal Ripken from 3B to SS.
Most other examples happened for specific reasons peculiar to the player. Alex Gordon we've already discussed--posted a link explaining that. Bonds had a gold glover in CF next to him. Who else are you talking about?
Why are Cubs trying to develop Schwarber as a catcher? How many superior defensive catchers could Dodgers and Mets have found to justify moving Piazza to 1B or LF?
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I'm not sure it is that simple. In Castro/Russell/Baez you have players that their bat will still let them be above average at 2B/3B with likely above average to plus defense. In Bryant you have somebody that his bat will play anywhere. If he is below average at third and above average in LF, it might be best for the Cubs/him to play LF. This all changes if the Cubs middle infielders don't pan out or Bryant's defense is better at 3B, but it will take a few years to figure out. Bryant is going to start at 3B for the Cubs this year, but I don't know how long he will stay there.
It is a lot like the Orioles moving Machado to 3B and keeping Hardy.
Never argued that Bryant will stay at 3B if he clearly is below average at the position. That's too easy. Issue is what happens if he is solid average or better. Pretty confident he stays at 3B if he attains the latter.
Once you move him off the position for a significant period, highly likely he will lose 3B skills and have to stay in OF.
Not talking about game-to-game. Theo/hoyer are not constructing an organization on a short term basis. How do you develop guys and use them long-term, especially the elite guys. If you maximize each such guy's value, you maximize the value of the components of the organization as a whole, including trade options.
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So let's play GM.
Russell wRC+ 110-130 plus defense at SS/2B/3B
Castro wRC+ 115-120 average defense at SS, above average 2B
Baez wRC+ 120-130 average-above average at SS, Plus defense at 2B/3B
Bryant wRC+ 140-150 below average-average at 3B, above average in LF
Who do trade or arrange them.
For me it is Castro 2B/Russell SS/Baez 3B/Bryant LF and I scream in joy. Seeing Bryant play third in a limited sample size I have questions about how well he will be able to play 3B, but he is athletic enough to play LF quite well. I willing to give him this year to how well he does on defense and with the bat. That will also give the Cubs time to figure out what they have in Russell, Baez and Alcantara and to a much lesser extent Olt/LaStella. So I think we'll have a much better idea of how things will sort out after the year.
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Given those assumptions, I would do the same...all day, every day...
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Under above scenario, how about if instead you could trade Castro to acquire a likely top-end type starting pitcher? Might that be best use of value?
Or, what if your doubts about Bryant's defense are removed and he's playing solid defense at 3B?
Not a prediction, but a question.
Seems to me that least attractive option there is moving somebody to LF. What do you think?
If Bryant is subpar at 3B, then it's kind of easy, assuming the attractive options.
Would be a massively unusual scenario if everybody pans out as hoped, but it could happen. A great problem to have and tough decisions to be made.
On other hand, how to deal with Bryant and Mike Olt should be, and is, easy.
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And the pitcher blows out his arm the next day.
I would take the above average offense and above average defense at every position and be really happy. The chances of everybody working out is small, but the Cubs are do for some good luck some day.
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and he's playing solid defense at 3B?
This is the big question. How bad (or good) is Bryant's defense at third. If it's sub-par, then CBJ's scenario works well for me. If it's average or better and (for the sake of argument) the offensive stats CBJ proposed are the same, I'm trading a shortstop.
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And the pitcher blows out his arm the next day.
I would take the above average offense and above average defense at every position and be really happy. The chances of everybody working out is small, but the Cubs are do for some good luck some day.
So, we're assuming the rosy scenario for this discussion but we have to assume the guy we trade for blows out his arm? Not fair.
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The big question for me in CBJ's scenario is Baez being a plus defender at 3B.
Not that I doubt he could be, but 3B is totally different from SS/2B...
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So, we're assuming the rosy scenario for this discussion but we have to assume the guy we trade for blows out his arm? Not fair.
It's a pitcher, they should all be assumed that their arm is going to blow up. :)
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If they all reach their offensive potiential, that looks as good as any.
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I would not trade a top offensive player like Castro (or any of them) for a single TOR pitcher. Offense is becoming too hard to come by.
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Short-sighted to make any blanket statement about trading for a pitcher.
Assume Jon lester blows out his arm, are you then more in need of a TOR acquisition? Think so.
Yes, have to be careful acquiring pitchers and weigh the risk. But, if you have embarrassment of riches in middle IF, it may well be best approach. Does anybody really think that Theo/Hoyer have ruled out trading one of the rosy scenario guys for a TOR guy down the road?
Regarding Bryant, guessing that by end of 2015 season, there will be near universal sentiment---one way or the other---about his position.
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...Sure, a marginal offensive guy like Darwin Barney might be moved to 2B but Barney is the type who gets moved to accommodate better players. The masterstroke in this area was Earl Weaver moving Cal Ripken from 3B to SS.
Most other examples happened for specific reasons peculiar to the player. Alex Gordon we've already discussed--posted a link explaining that. Bonds had a gold glover in CF next to him. Who else are you talking about?....
Ryne Sandberg. Paul Molitor (Robin Yount). Lou Whittaker. Jose Lind.
I think the "specific reasons peculiar" may not be all that exceptional. Bonds got VanSlyked, Molitor got Younted, Whittaker got Trammelled. Somebody else was there and established, so somebody gets moved. That's exactly the type of situation we're hoping applies here.
I think Russell, Castro, and Baez could constitute "specific reasons", that's why we're talking about it.
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Very rare to see a solid defensive SS who can hit that is moved off SS. Machado a rare example.
I don't doubt that it's rare to see a solid defensive SS moved off SS. But I suspect it's also rare to have two or three solid defensive SS who are all solid or better offensive players on the same team. The Cubs are reasonably likely to find themselves in that position (with Castro, Baez and Russell), which would make moving at least one off of that position inevitable.
Was Ryne Sandberg not considered a solid defensive SS when he first came up? My impression was that he was put at 3B and then 2B because of the presence of the veteran Larry Bowa.
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Ryne Sandberg. Paul Molitor (Robin Yount). Lou Whittaker. Jose Lind.
I think the "specific reasons peculiar" may not be all that exceptional. Bonds got VanSlyked, Molitor got Younted, Whittaker got Trammelled. Somebody else was there and established, so somebody gets moved. That's exactly the type of situation we're hoping applies here.
I think Russell, Castro, and Baez could constitute "specific reasons", that's why we're talking about it.
I agree with craig - that the circumstances are likely to dictate where various Cubs end up playing. I could see circumstances in which Bryant gets moved even if he's playing an adequate 3B or better. I think that might apply to all of these guys. I resist the notion that there is a fixed answer to whether you keep all of Castro, Baez, Bryant and Russell or trade one of them. I think it depends.
For example, in the scenarios mentioned earlier, whether you want to trade a Castro for a starting pitcher depends very much on exactly who you would get in return (including his contract terms) and what your own starting pitching looks like at that time and in the future (and other considerations as well, I expect).
I don't think a mechanistic approach is either wise or what this FO is likely to take as these players show what they are capable of and as the team gets more definition as to where its strengths and weaknesses lie. One of the things I love about Joe Maddon is his flexibility. And my sense is that Theo and Jed are of the same mind, based on what they've been saying and doing since coming to the Cubs.
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When ARod went to the Yankees most baseball people considered him a better SS than Jeter, but Jeter was already there, so...
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Jeter is clutch though...... Just think of the grief Castro would take if he played as bad defense as Jeter did at SS.
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So let's play GM.
Russell wRC+ 110-130 plus defense at SS/2B/3B
Castro wRC+ 115-120 average defense at SS, above average 2B
Baez wRC+ 120-130 average-above average at SS, Plus defense at 2B/3B
Bryant wRC+ 140-150 below average-average at 3B, above average in LF
Who do trade or arrange them.
For me it is Castro 2B/Russell SS/Baez 3B/Bryant LF and I scream in joy. Seeing Bryant play third in a limited sample size I have questions about how well he will be able to play 3B, but he is athletic enough to play LF quite well. I willing to give him this year to how well he does on defense and with the bat. That will also give the Cubs time to figure out what they have in Russell, Baez and Alcantara and to a much lesser extent Olt/LaStella. So I think we'll have a much better idea of how things will sort out after the year.
Baez is the hinge. Castro is a player, Bryant and Russell seem likely to varying degree, so if Baez is plus-defense 120-130 offense, you've got four = surplus.
If Baez can't hit, you've got three, no surplus.
If Bryant can't field, we may be down to two.
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Ryne Sandberg. Paul Molitor (Robin Yount). Lou Whittaker. Jose Lind.
I think the "specific reasons peculiar" may not be all that exceptional. Bonds got VanSlyked, Molitor got Younted, Whittaker got Trammelled. Somebody else was there and established, so somebody gets moved. That's exactly the type of situation we're hoping applies here.
I think Russell, Castro, and Baez could constitute "specific reasons", that's why we're talking about it.
Let's look at these guys.
First, nobody mentioned above went to LF early in their career. So, irrelevant as to Bryant.
Whitaker and Lind are not on point at all.
Whitaker was a 2B/3B in minors (6 career minors games at SS) and played 2B in majors.
Lind was moved to 2B in AA and played last two seasons in minors (AA and AAA) at 2B--and played 2B in majors.
So, no clue why use those guys as examples for this discussion. Both played at their value positions in majors.
Sandberg was a SS in Phillies system and did not have a SS arm. Very few folks think he had a future as a SS in majors--a major reason why he was available in a trade. If he was capable at SS, he sure was not going to go back there after a couple seasons at 2B in majors. So, if you believe he was a SS, perhaps a cautionary tale. In any case, Cubs were not sure where to play him and, of course, had one season at 3B (after Ken Reitz was traded) and moved to 2B after Cubs dumped Bump Wills--which of course turned out to be ideal. Just don't see how Sandberg is relevant to the discussion. He should have played 2B and he did.
Molitor played a total of 63 games in his minor league career. Went from A ball to majors. No idea how good a SS he was in those 63 games. Yes, Brewers had a 22 year old future HOFer at SS, so Molitor went from A ball to 2B in majors. That is such a peculiar situation (an incumbent HOF youngster in place at SS) that I have trouble seeing that as much of a lesson. Keep Robin Yount at SS as long as possible? Okay.
In any case, I don't have a gigantic problem moving one of the Cubs SS guys to 2B, if necessary. While it's kind of a shame for the player who perhaps could have a long SS career in majors, 2B is still an up-the-middle important defensive position.
What I object to is moving anybody to LF. Certainly not Russell, Castro, or Baez and not Bryant either if we assume he will be a solid defensive 3B for purposes of the discussion.
And I don't like the idea of moving a true SS to 3B either. Very few examples of a legit SS moving to 3B before aging process. Machado is one. A true rarity.
Under CBJ's hypothetical scenario, you have a SS quality MIFer moving to 3B and a solid average 3B with unusually high offense moving to LF, a mostly offensive position with minimal defensive value. So, you are under utilizing two elite guys. Would much rather trade for value at another position of need.
Thinking Delino DeShields for Pedro Martinez. ;D
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2015 - Mike Olt hits well and plays spectacular 3B defense. Kris Bryant hits extremely well and plays adequate 3B defense. Chris Coghlan and Chris Denorfia both play terribly. Maddon puts Olt at 3B and Bryant in LF.
2016 - Mike Olt hits poorly. Billy McKinney tears up the minor leagues and is hitting .380 in AAA in early June. Maddon tries to move Bryant back to 3B, but he's a disaster because his infield skills have deteriorated due to not playing infield for a year. Maddon lets Bryant work through his problems. The mental strain of his defensive problems carries over to the batter's box.
Reb is right. Dave is wrong.
Any player who would be a "disaster because his infield skills have deteriorated due to not playing infield for a year" almost certainly would have been so week to begin with that it really would not have made a great deal of sense for him to have been there in the first place.
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I read the post. I just saw no sense to it.
That might be because there was no sense to it.
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Tactics vs. strategy. Tactically, you play your roster in a way that maximizes defensive value. Strategically, you don't keep two guys on the roster if it means one of them has to move to a non premium defensive position even though he is strong at a premium defensive position. You trade one of them to get maximum value.
You only trade one of them if doing so would improve the team.
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Very rare to see a solid defensive SS who can hit that is moved off SS.
Part of that reason is because it is very rare for a team to have the kind of established SS as the Cubs have in Castro and two promising SS prospects like Baez and Russell. One time I can think of is when the Brewers has an All Star SS in Robin Yount and moved him to LEFT FIELD to accomodate 24-year-old Ernie Riles, a nice prospect who ened up 3rd in ROY voting but who never in his career approach Robin Yount levels. And the Brewers did not move Yount to LF initially instead of CF (where he was moved the next season) because they had a great CFer there. The Brewers instead had Rick Manning and his .562 OPS in CF.
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Thinking Delino DeShields for Pedro Martinez. ;D
And sometimes you get Broglio.
Just an aside but that 1994 Expos team was great. Alou, Grissom, Walker in the outfield with Rondell White off the bench. 21 year old Cliff Floyd at 1B. Will Cordero at SS. Kenny Hill, Pedro, Jeff Fassero in the rotation. Butch Henry had a 174 ERA+ as the 4th starter. The bullpen had Wetteland, Rojas, Jeff Shaw, Tim Scott, Gil Heredia. The worst ERA+ was Shaw at 109.
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Yeah, but they didn't win the World Series.
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I would not trade a top offensive player like Castro (or any of them) for a single TOR pitcher. Offense is becoming too hard to come by.
Short-sighted to make any blanket statement about trading for a pitcher.
Assume Jon lester blows out his arm, are you then more in need of a TOR acquisition? Think so.
Yes, have to be careful acquiring pitchers and weigh the risk. But, if you have embarrassment of riches in middle IF, it may well be best approach. Does anybody really think that Theo/Hoyer have ruled out trading one of the rosy scenario guys for a TOR guy down the road?
Last season the Cubs traded two pitchers, both of whom at the time were preforming at TOR levels, in a moved which was primarily for a single AA top SS prospect.
Yes, I think the Theocracy would insist on more than a single TOR guy for any one of the Castro/Baez/Russell trio if they have each proven they can hit in the majors.
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And sometimes you get Broglio.....
Brock/Broglio would never happen today. Now well known that Broglio was hurt/damaged goods at time of trade. In those days, GMs had gentlemen's agreements and rare for a guy to undergo a physical exam before a transaction or even look at medical reports. Broglio was hurt from day one. A pitcher can get hurt on day two but Broglio not a good example of what we're talking about.
By the way, most folks thought that was a good trade for Cubs when it was made. I heard about trade during a Dodgers radio broadcast from Vin Scully, and Scully was raving about how Cubs rotation was stacking up: Ellsworth, who had a fantastic season the year before; Larry Jackson, a 24 game winner that season; Broglio was 18-8 year before in a 250 inning season; and Bob Buhl, crafty veteran in a 4-man rotation.
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Ryne Sandberg. Paul Molitor (Robin Yount). Lou Whittaker. Jose Lind.
Molitor is a nice example disproving Reb's point. After his first three seasons as a good SS/2B in the majors (ROY his first season, 20th in MVP voting his 2nd and an All-Star in his 3rd) he was moved to CF to start his 4th season, played OF that entire year, and then was moved back to the infield his 4th season. And after 8 years at 3B he was moved back to 2B. The norm? Certainly not, but the idea that it simply does not or can not happen is nonsense.
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Molitor started 54 games at SS in his career---in 21 seasons. So, let's get that out of the way. Was never a SS other than as a rare fill-in role.
Nobody ever said can't or does not happen. Rarely happens. I've said that repeatedly.
Funny how the rare guys cited are, more often than not, HOFers. By definition, HOFers are outliers. They do things on occasion that are very, very rare. Very special players.
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HOFers are also the ones we are most likely to remember.
The fact that they are the ones we discuss does not even begin to indicate that they are outliers.
It instead indicates that they are the ones we remember.
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Oh, and Ernie Riles is not exactly a HOFer who caused the Brewers to move Yount.
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Qualification....
Nobody ever said can't or does not happen. Rarely happens. I've said that repeatedly.
meet certitude.
Russell and Bryant each may have 10 times the career value of Mike Olt---maybe more. Therefore, the presence of Olt should and will have zero impact on where Russell and Bryant play. As elite guys, they will play on the defensive spectrum where they have the most value, provided they are legit solid defensive guys at the more valued position.
Whatever happens, Cubs are not going to put Addison Russell in LF.
All brought to you by the same sponsor.
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Qualification....
meet certitude.
All brought to you by the same sponsor.
First, Ernie Riles moved Robin Yount off SS the way Andre Rodgers moved Ernie Banks off SS. Yount was in his 12th season in majors and, like Ernie, was ready to move to a less demanding position.
First quote references the Molitor post. Yes, very rare the way he was moved around. I suppose, under JesLogic, that makes Molitor a career bench guy.
Second quote has a proviso after the quoted section. From your salad days, you may recall what a proviso does.
As to third quote, yes, I am very confident that Addison Russell is not going to be developed as a LFer. Really going out on a limb there. Sorry if that was confusing.
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First, Ernie Riles moved Robin Yount off SS the way Andre Rodgers moved Ernie Banks off SS. Yount was in his 12th season in majors and, like Ernie, was ready to move to a less demanding position.
Banks had knee problems which forced the move. It was a move to 1B, the least demaning position on the field, and it came when he was 31. Yount's move was at age 29, was to LF initially, and then to CF (illustrating that your defensive spectrum position is wrong), happened absent any knee or similar problem (his shoulder difficulties may have changed the equation so playing Riles at SS and moving Yount to the OF resulted in a net benefit to the team, but it did not mean he could no longer play SS, which was the case with Banks), and when Yount ended up in CF he was still in a demanding position. It was, however, a move just as davep has explained teams will make, when the new use of the two players results in a net benefit to the team. That is really all that matters.
First quote references the Molitor post. Yes, very rare the way he was moved around. I suppose, under JesLogic, that makes Molitor a career bench guy.
JesLogic is pretty simple here, and it is the same as any logic, other than yours. It is the logic that when an absolute position is taken, a single contrary example shows the absolute position to be wrong
Second quote has a proviso after the quoted section. From your salad days, you may recall what a proviso does.
Proviso my ass. There was no "proviso." Your comments after the quoted passage neither altered or limited anything I quoted.
Here is the entire paragraph:
Russell and Bryant each may have 10 times the career value of Mike Olt---maybe more. Therefore, the presence of Olt should and will have zero impact on where Russell and Bryant play. As elite guys, they will play on the defensive spectrum where they have the most value, provided they are legit solid defensive guys at the more valued position. Everybody who read Bill James 30 years ago understands this and, in most circles, it's a non-issue to this day.
As to third quote, yes, I am very confident that Addison Russell is not going to be developed as a LFer. Really going out on a limb there. Sorry if that was confusing.
I never suggested it was confusing. I pointed out that it was quite clear, and quite clearly contrary to your post earlier today in which you claimed your position was one of nuanced qualification:
Nobody ever said can't or does not happen. Rarely happens. I've said that repeatedly.
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Banks had knee problems which forced the move. It was a move to 1B, the least demaning position on the field, and it came when he was 31. Yount's move was at age 29, was to LF initially, and then to CF (illustrating that your defensive spectrum position is wrong), happened absent any knee or similar problem (his shoulder difficulties may have changed the equation so playing Riles at SS and moving Yount to the OF resulted in a net benefit to the team, but it did not mean he could no longer play SS, which was the case with Banks), and when Yount ended up in CF he was still in a demanding position. It was, however, a move just as davep has explained teams will make, when the new use of the two players results in a net benefit to the team. That is really all that matters.
Yount had shoulder surgery. He could not make the throw from the SS hole. That's why he moved off SS. Same as Banks; different body part. Nothing to do with making room for the immortal Ernie Riles at SS. Ernie Riles?? You're kidding, I suppose.
As for the rest, all silly stuff in your post. Basic Snark, as usual. Should have known better. You go back to Ignore.
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And the crowd erupts with cheers!
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At least one part of the crowd does.
There is nothing "snarky" about pointing out either inconsitent positions or downright false statements. But it is amusing to see someone engaging so aggressively in snark ("From your salad days, you may recall what a proviso does.") first to complain of it and then in the same post use false claims of it to excuse a failure to address either their inconsistency or falsity.
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As for the rest, all silly stuff in your post. Basic Snark, as usual. Should have known better. You go back to Ignore.
George Knue used to moderate a board where you could award one to five stars to each post. Unfortunately, the ratings were skewed by being able to vote on your own posts.
How would such a rating system work here for the character Reb is referring to? Would the average number of stars be higher than you might expect because because you can't vote on what you can't see or would those of us who normally don't read his nonsense take him off ignore just to be able to vote?
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We project that a young player will improve with time/coaching/practice, with improvement projected to be steepest when a guy is young and relatively new to the pro game/coaching. Position stuff seems status quo for now. But a year from now we'll have additional input on a lot of questions regarding hoped-for progress:
1. Bryant: How good, adequate, or bad is Bryant at 3B? Another year of polish and he'll look quite acceptable? Or will he look somewhat deficient without much progress and with limited evidence that his improvement trajectory will ever get him good enough? Negative feedback on the 3B defense may make the 3B-vs-OF question moot.
2. Schwarber: How good, adequate, or bad is Schwarber at C? Another year of polish and coaching and will he look well on path to becoming quite acceptable? Or will he look significantly deficient without great progress and with limited evidence that his improvement trajectory will ever get him good enough? Negative feedback on his C defense, combined with positive feedback on his hitting, may push him into LF. Might the OF be more crowded than the IF?
3. Baez: Will Baez figure out how to hit? If not, the question of whether the infield is too crowded may be moot.
4. Fowler: Will the Bonds-influenced Fowler have a really good year offensively, and with Maddon's defensive positioning might he look surprisingly respectable defensively as well? If so, his leadoff profile and his intelligent hitting approach might make him a very desirable long-term extension cornerstone in the OF and at leadoff. That could contribute to OF crowding.
5. Almora: Perhaps this is the year that Almora really matures as a hitter. If he emerges as the good hitter with strong power that many scouts have always projected him to become, that could contribute to OF crowding. If so, he'd be for CF, which wouldn't seem to impact the Bryant/Schwarber LF issue directly. But if BOTH Almora AND Fowler were to emerge as very desirable keepers, Almora could go for center and then Fowler could potentially slide to left. Sure, that's a step down the defensive spectrum. But where now we may be sub-average defensively in both center and left, Fowler in left and Almora in center might make both positions significant defensive assets. Fowler's averaged over .800 OPS for the past three seasons, so if he can sustain or improve that, an .800-OPS guy with .370-OBP is hardly an offensive problem relative to LF. The conjunction of Fowler and Almora both having excellent seasons might crowd OF and make the concept of moving Bryant out there much less appealing than it seems now.
6. McKinney: Another young player who is highly regarded as a hitting prospect. For now, he's distant, and we don't know if he'll have any power, or if he's likely to be anything more than a 4th OF/role-player. But he hit 11 HR's last year. What if he hits .300 with huge OBP and 15 HR's as a 20-year-old? More potential OF crowding.
It's possible that the LF landscape could change a lot by September.
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4. Fowler: Will the Bonds influence by instructional or chemical?
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It's about time for FD to remind us not to count our prospects before they hatch.
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5. Almora: Perhaps this is the year that Almora really matures as a hitter. If he emerges as the good hitter with strong power that many scouts have always projected him to become, that could contribute to OF crowding. If so, he'd be for CF, which wouldn't seem to impact the Bryant/Schwarber LF issue directly. But if BOTH Almora AND Fowler were to emerge as very desirable keepers, Almora could go for center and then Fowler could potentially slide to left. Sure, that's a step down the defensive spectrum. But where now we may be sub-average defensively in both center and left, Fowler in left and Almora in center might make both positions significant defensive assets. Fowler's averaged over .800 OPS for the past three seasons, so if he can sustain or improve that, an .800-OPS guy with .370-OBP is hardly an offensive problem relative to LF. The conjunction of Fowler and Almora both having excellent seasons might crowd OF....
Considering age and development history, even if Almora develops, I would be very surprised to see him having an excellent season in the majors before 2019 at the earliest, and by then the landscape is likely to be quite changed in the Cubs outfield. I would expect the front office to see a full season of success from Almora in both AA and AAA before he is called up, unless he completely changes his development course and absolutely starts ripping the ball apart from the beginning of this season.
I suspect we will see McKinney well before Almora.
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http://m.cubs.mlb.com/news/article/109204790/cubs-minor-leaguer-works-on-earning-new-set-of-stripes
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Baseball Prospectus says the Cubs have the best farm system:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25592
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I have never been impressed with CCO, since I find very little information that is new or even interesting, but this is a quote from today.
On the outside looking in could be Olt and Javier Baez. Petulantly sticking at shortstop during his time in the minors, Baez has only been a recent convert to second base, and there are some varying opinions as to his defensive ability at either position. Baez has also publically shown his disdain for playing third base in the past,
It has been my impression that it was the front office that kept Baez at shortstop, and have seen very little to indicate that Baez refused to be moved. Nor have I heard that Baez has shown disdain for playing third base. Most shortstops want to stay at shortstop, but that is hardly because of petulance.
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That's news to me, too. I had always heard that he wanted to play in the majors and really didn't care where. I wonder if they are making this up out of whole cloth, basing it on one observation somewhere. My impression was that Baez was playing shortstop in the minors because 1) they needed him at ss for that particular team and 2) he would be ready if they traded Castro.
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He also looked very good defensively at 2B. Not much reason to give credence to those comments.
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What surprised me was that CCO very seldom has anything controversial in it. I don't remember many "opinion pieces".
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Seems fabricated. Non-issue. I think some of that may come from Arizona fall League two years ago, where he did play a couple of games at 3B, made several errors and looked bad, and by at least one account looked really disinterested. That's a perhaps subjected game observation; may be totally wrong. Whether there was any additional story (AFL coach wanted him to work on 3B and he didn't want to, or something?), beats me. But I think that's just CCO being dumb, and I wouldn't take CCO's stuff to prove anything.
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Seems fabricated. Non-issue. I think some of that may come from Arizona fall League two years ago, where he did play a couple of games at 3B, made several errors and looked bad, and by at least one account looked really disinterested. That's a perhaps subjected game observation; may be totally wrong. Whether there was any additional story (AFL coach wanted him to work on 3B and he didn't want to, or something?), beats me. But I think that's just CCO being dumb, and I wouldn't take CCO's stuff to prove anything.
There's also an important difference between being thrown into a game at a new position without notice or preparation and working out on a new position beforehand.
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Next we'll hear that he plays his boombox too loud and they'll show us video of him leaving games early.
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Davep is a troublemaker
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I wish you would stop talking to my wife.
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I wish you would stop talking to my wife.
Like you?
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I never talk to my wife. I haven't been able to get a word in edgewise for 20 years.
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The Fangraphs top 200 is very pro-Cub. I like they way the organize tiers of prospects by Future Value grades and that they give out so darn much info with no paywall.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fangraphs-top-200-prospect-list/
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The Fangraphs top 200 is very pro-Cub.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fangraphs-top-200-prospect-list/
I'll say. Cubs with 2 of the top 3, 3 of the top 13, 4 of the top 21, 6 of the top 100, 8 of the top 125, and 11 of the top 200.
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Fangraphs also says the Cubs have the most valuable farm system money-wise, and it's not even close:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/taking-a-stab-at-valuing-the-farm-systems/
$225,000,000 surplus value on the Cubs farm, with Minnesota second at $180,000,000. There is another big drop-off at #4 (Dodgers, $135,000,000). Only seven other farm systems are at least half as valuable as the Cubs system according to that analysis.
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Baseball America's top 100 list:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-100-prospects-tools-2/
1: Bryant
3: Russell
12: Soler
19: Schwarber
38: Edwards
83: McKinney
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Other Cubs listed on at least one of the seven individual BA voters' Top 150's: Almora, Johnston, Stinnett, Torres, Tseng and Underwood.
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Top prospects for the other NL Central teams:
Pittsburgh - Tyler Glasnow - #16
Cincinnati - Robert Stephenson - #23
St. Louis - Marco Gonzales - #50
Milwaukee - Tyrone Taylor - #93
So the Cubs had three guys listed ahead of Pittsburgh's top prospect, four ahead of Cincinnati's, five ahead of St. Louis's and six ahead of Milwaukee's.
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Struck me as odd that there wasn't more separation between Schwarber, with serious defensive doubts and only two months of low-minors experience, versus Soler, who is a very capable defensive RF, who has already crushed AA/AAA, and who looked very big-league competitive. Maybe I'm too confident about Soler. Or maybe it really speaks to how really, really, really buzzed some of those BA guys are about Schwarber's bat. Or that the BA guys aren't as catching-defense skeptical as seem most other media reporters.
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If, after the season, the Cubs had announced that Schwarber was going to be a left fielder, I think he would have been ranked in the 30 - 35 range. If, after the season, scouts were convinced that he could be a MLB catcher, he would have ranked in the 10 - 15 range. Perhaps the actual ranking is a reasonable compromise.
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If Schwarber continues to hit well in AA and can be a decent catcher he'll rank in the top 10 and it wouldn't shock me to see him in the top 5.
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If Schwarber continues to hit well in AA and can be a decent catcher he'll rank in the top 10 and it wouldn't shock me to see him in the top 5.
Yeah, but what about that study arguing that Jose Molina, as a framer, was better and more valuable overall than Albert Pujols in his prime as a Posada-type defensive catcher?
Shouldn't Cubs be grooming Will Remillard as catcher of the future?
If Schwarber is second coming of Albert Pujols offensively but is a subpar framer, why should he catch over Remillard if you agree with study?
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On the other hand, why sign Ross when you already have Castillo? This front office certainly does not ignore the value of framing.
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Pujols was drafted as a 3B. Nobody seriously considered him for catcher. Don't care what that study says. Jose Molina, as a framer, would have been better than Mays, Banks, and Rizzo as a catcher, too.
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I'm all for framing and everything but good grief, I still want a catcher who can hit. All of this recent hoopla over framing just illustrates yet again the need to go to an automated strike zone. The idea should be to get it right, not worry about the ego's of the umpire's union.
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As far as framing goes Schwarber has the body type that can lead itself to being good at framing. I'll take a guy that can be above average with the bat at catcher and have a Ross type backup and get the best of both worlds.
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As far as framing goes Schwarber has the body type that can lead itself to being good at framing. I'll take a guy that can be above average with the bat at catcher and have a Ross type backup and get the best of both worlds.
Way too easy. For the moment. let's not assume Schwarber is good at framing. What if Schwarber hits like Pujols and frames like Posada? The study at issue says Jose Molina is better than that guy.
Begs the question to assume that Schwarber has the body type to be good at framing. What if he's Posada at framing and hits like Pujols? Simple question. Do you want that guy to catch for you for the foreseeable future or do you want Jose Molina instead?
Simple question. And, let's assume that Ross is the backup to either guy.
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On the other hand, why sign Ross when you already have Castillo? This front office certainly does not ignore the value of framing.
Nobody should ignore the value of framing. The issue is what is the comparative value of framing?
Hard to know how much the Ross/Castillo decision pertains to framing and how much pertains to handling the pitcher staff. Ross is really good at both and Castillo is poor at framing and purportedly poor at handling a pitching staff too.
So, hard to know how much weight Cubs front office gave to either skill in making this decision. Would not assume that it's mostly framing.
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Ill take Welly over Ross.
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Way too easy. For the moment. let's not assume Schwarber is good at framing. What if Schwarber hits like Pujols and frames like Posada? The study at issue says Jose Molina is better than that guy.
Begs the question to assume that Schwarber has the body type to be good at framing. What if he's Posada at framing and hits like Pujols? Simple question. Do you want that guy to catch for you for the foreseeable future or do you want Jose Molina instead?
Simple question. And, let's assume that Ross is the backup to either guy.
In an era of depressed offense I would take his left handed bat over Molina everyday of the week.
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In an era of depressed offense I would take his left handed bat over Molina everyday of the week.
Okay, three more questions.
1. Would your answer be different if the Schwarber period was 2000 to 2010 instead of the current era of depressed offense?
2. Is there any era in baseball history in which you would prefer Jose Molina over a Schwarber who is the equivalent of Albert Pujols/Jose Posada?
3. Let's assume that Schwarber is a righty bat only, would your answers be different?
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Way too easy. For the moment. let's not assume Schwarber is good at framing. What if Schwarber hits like Pujols and frames like Posada? The study at issue says Jose Molina is better than that guy.
Does anyone have a link to the study. I remember that it was said that Molina was more valuable to the team, but was it because of framing, specifically, or was it because of overall defense. There is a lot more to catcher defense that merely framing.
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Study referenced in this article.
http://grantland.com/features/brad-asumus-pitch-framing-dennis-eckersley/
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1) If I'm really confident that framing is worth what people are saying and the numbers where significantly in favor of Molina then yes. I am I personally there, right now, no.
2.) Only the steroid era and that is more of a maybe.
3.) No. The Cubs just need lefties so if I was on the fence it would matter.
4.) I'm serious about the body type. Big guys cover more of the plate with their mass, so less movement is needed to catch the ball.
Does anyone have a link to the study. I remember that it was said that Molina was more valuable to the team, but was it because of framing, specifically, or was it because of overall defense. There is a lot more to catcher defense that merely framing.
It was an internal Yankee study quoted in a Grantland article, so nobody has it. From the data the public ha,s it is at best a wash if you assume Pujols was producing around 60 runs above average on offense. Peak Pujols produced more and peak framing Molina couldn't catch him.
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I'm all for framing and everything but good grief, I still want a catcher who can hit. All of this recent hoopla over framing just illustrates yet again the need to go to an automated strike zone. The idea should be to get it right, not worry about the ego's of the umpire's union.
Agree. Get it automated and lets not worry about this nonsense.
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Let's assume that framing is hugely significant, more significant than the offensive differential between Posada and Molina.
3 Questions, from a prospect/development standpoint,:
1. how easy is it to scout?
2. How teachable is it?
3. What kind of "tools" are essential to being a really good pitch framer?
Scouting: It's easy enough to read a hitter's stats and determine whether he was very effective. Last year Schwarber was very effective. Easy to scout power, easy to scout velocity. How easy is it to evaluate framing skills? Will the Cubs "know" whether he's going to be a framing asset or a framing liability by the end of the year? Is there enough minor-league PitchFX type data to evaluate that statistically? Is it something that's scoutable by eyeball?
Teachable: How much can be learned just by wanting to and being coaches towards the ideal? Can anybody learn it, if they're coached right and they try hard? How much is head smarts versus physical tools? If it is teachable, how long does it take?
Tools: Assuming there are some "tools" involved, what are they? Does schwarber have them? BlueJay says being big helps. Ausmus wasn't.
One "tool" may perhaps be visual. Theo suggested that Schwarber's ability to see the ball as a hitter may also benefit him as a framer? Do guys who get fooled by movement as hitters also tend to get fooled by movement as catchers and react late?
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1) If I'm really confident that framing is worth what people are saying and the numbers where significantly in favor of Molina then yes. I am I personally there, right now, no.
2.) Only the steroid era and that is more of a maybe.
3.) No. The Cubs just need lefties so if I was on the fence it would matter.
4.) I'm serious about the body type. Big guys cover more of the plate with their mass, so less movement is needed to catch the ball.
It was an internal Yankee study quoted in a Grantland article, so nobody has it. From the data the public ha,s it is at best a wash if you assume Pujols was producing around 60 runs above average on offense. Peak Pujols produced more and peak framing Molina couldn't catch him.
Okay, thanks.
My own view is that I have no idea what value to place on framing (other than confident it has a value of some kind).
But, can't a case be made that Pujols in his prime was the best hitter in baseball and that, roughly during that period, Jose Molina was among the worst hitters in baseball? Think that the Molina vs. Pujols/Posada study argument is the kind of thing that somebody would fabricate if they were trying to undermine the framing argument, like an agent provocateur or the like. Let's make the case that the the worst hitter is more valuable than the best hitter because of framing--and see if folks buy it?
So, the notion that one component of catcher defense outweighs the offensive disparity (and maybe all other catching components) is amazing to me. If that is true the, as Robb notes in his post, MLB must immediately go to an automated strike zone to get a more fair and accurate ball/strike system.
Also interesting that seems like no insiders within the game believe the value is anything close to the Molina vs. Pujols/Posada study. The Yankees, who actually did the study, completely ignored the study results by letting Molina walk away for $800,000 to the Jays. Don't think they do that if they remotely believe the study.
Also haven't seen much discussion of this in baseball media, other than sabermetric circles. Back in the 1980s, sabermetric stuff was widely ignored too but folks are a lot more sophisticated today. Don't think a good study would be ignored. Yes, Cubs to some extent are taking framing into account in roster construction but it is one thing to prefer Ross over Castillo overall and another to prefer Jose Molina over Albert Pujols in his prime/Posada. And, yes, framing is referenced in general baseball media but rarely with any specifics regarding specific value.
In any event, all pretty interesting stuff.
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Don't know the answers to questions posed by Craig (as to Schwarber) but wonder if maybe a guy who is defensively raw and unschooled (like Schwarber) might be more coachable as to framing than somebody who already has a firm technique in receiving the pitch?
Of course, must have the talent to begin with. Seems like Cubs should be able to see that pretty quickly with Schwarber. Then, it's a matter of mastering the craft. There does seem to be a certain level of enthusiasm within the organization about him catching but hard to know if it's about framing or all the other stuff a catcher has to do. Have to wonder how much they focus on teaching him framing compared to all the other stuff.
If he is very poor at framing, hypothetically, the studies would say why bother, right? Just put him in LF, even if he's decent at all other aspects of catching. Very poor Schwarber framing and we're back in the Jose Molina study. Guessing that Cubs are not looking at it quite that way.
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....If he is very poor at framing, hypothetically, the studies would say why bother, right? Just put him in LF, even if he's decent at all other aspects of catching. Very poor Schwarber framing and we're back in the Jose Molina study. Guessing that Cubs are not looking at it quite that way.
Agree.
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Don't know the answers to questions posed by Craig (as to Schwarber) but wonder if maybe a guy who is defensively raw and unschooled (like Schwarber) might be more coachable as to framing than somebody who already has a firm technique in receiving the pitch?
I'm far more worried about the number of hypothetical home runs he hits.
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Automating the strike zone should lead to shorter game times, too.
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If I were a professional umpire, I would be incredibly ashamed of my fellow umpires if I believed pitch framing was nearly as important as some here seem to accept.
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I have no doubt that framing causes some pitches off the plate to be called strikes.
My distrust is in the conversion from increased strikes to decreased runs scored. The logic that I have seen in quantifying the conversion has not been very convincing to me.
If Ross were the best "framer" in baseball, I would still rather have Castillo, let alone Pujols/Posada, at catcher.
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Baseball America's top 100 list:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-100-prospects-tools-2/
1: Bryant
3: Russell
12: Soler
19: Schwarber
38: Edwards
83: McKinney
You have to wonder where Baez would rank had re remained in the minors all season and put up a full season that simply projected his 2014 minor league stats oveer a full minor league season.
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Let's assume that framing is hugely significant, more significant than the offensive differential between Posada and Molina.
Let's assume pigs can fly....
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Craig
1) It can be scouted. Quantifying it at minor league level would be difficult. It would take pitchF/X and data on pitchers and umpires.
2) The Astros taught Castro how to frame pitchers. How much it can be improved on and can everyone be improved? I don't know. Castillo stabs at the ball and you would have to completely change how he catches the ball. It may be recognition or just how he catches it so it may not ever get any better. Catchers are moving their upper body to catch the ball, not their gloves and also how the glove is pointed when catching it.
3) the tools are being absent or appearing to be absent of movement when catching the ball. Your trying to fool the ump into thinking you are setup in the strike zone and the pitcher is hitting his spot. The bigger you are the more area you cover and the less movement is needed to catch the pitch. Small guys can still be good framers but it takes more skill.
As far as how valuable it is, I would think it is on the high end of what people are coming up with. A batter may have 4 AB to influence a game. A catcher can have 120+ attempts to influence the game. What is the difference in batter OPS between a 2-1 count and a 1-2 count? Framing 1 pitch can provide that multiple times a game.
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Your math is probably a little high there, if for no other reason than of the 120 pitches that are thrown, the catcher probably only catches about half of them, since many are hit before they reach the catcher's glove. In addition, a fair proportion are obvious strikes or obvious balls regardless of who is the catcher.
Are there any studies which quantify how many balls a good catcher can turn into strikes in a typical game?
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As far as how valuable it is, I would think it is on the high end of what people are coming up with. A batter may have 4 AB to influence a game. A catcher can have 120+ attempts to influence the game. What is the difference in batter OPS between a 2-1 count and a 1-2 count? Framing 1 pitch can provide that multiple times a game.
The high end.
Okay, put aside Pujols-type offense for Posada, where you're not certain of relative framing value.
Does high end confidence mean you'd take Jose Molina (OPS+ of 64) as your long-term career catcher over Posada straight up (121 OPS+)?
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Give me Schwarber swinging a hypothetical 120-ish OPS+ left-handed bat and I'll live with his warts defensively.
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Your math is probably a little high there, if for no other reason than of the 120 pitches that are thrown, the catcher probably only catches about half of them, since many are hit before they reach the catcher's glove. In addition, a fair proportion are obvious strikes or obvious balls regardless of who is the catcher.
Are there any studies which quantify how many balls a good catcher can turn into strikes in a typical game?
I think I've seen somwhere around 6-7 strikes above expected for the elite guys. If you compare it to Castillo it might be around 10. I also saw a study that I didn't dig into that the elite guys cause hitters to swing at more pitches out of the zone as well.
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The high end.
Okay, put aside Pujols-type offense for Posada, where you're not certain of relative framing value.
Does high end confidence mean you'd take Jose Molina (OPS+ of 64) as your long-term career catcher over Posada straight up (121 OPS+)?
To keep things simple I'm going to assume baserunning and regular defense have similar values. Yan Gome had a wRC+ of 121 last year and was worth 13 runs on offense in 518 AB. Molina had a wRC+ of 69 in 2013 which over 518 would be -20 runs. So Molina's pitch framing would have to be 33 runs in difference. I think that is quite possible when comparing a bad framer to a good framer to be worth that much. Would I want/have the balls to do it? It would be really close to when I would consider it, if I had the bats in the lineup to support having such a drag on the offense. It would be easier to do it in the AL with DH.
I'd rather have Montero over Molina any day of the week. I'd much rather have Schwarber be good at framing pitches than either Monterro or Molina. 😛
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I don't think there are many that are saying that framing is worthless or meaningless. But a lot of us just don't buy into the magnitude of the value.
But the greater the value, the greater the reason to automate ball and strike calls. We use technology to ensure that calls in the field are correct, even to the point of delaying the game interminably. Let's use that same technology, without the delays, to make sure that ball and strike calls are correct.
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Pitch framing, instant replay, the height of the mound, left handed vs. right handed first basemen are all little nuances. A catcher hustles down the first base line to backup infield throws and how often does it happen that he saves the day? An intentional walk becomes a disaster as the pitcher lobs the ball over the catcher...happen often? Little things.
First batter up, first pitch, umpire calls it a strike, while the announcers and the bench groan because it was a foot outside. Important blown call? Probably not.
Bases loaded, 9th inning, 3-2 count, down by a run, same call. This time vitally important.
Pitch framing's importance is dependent on game situation. Greg Maddux seemed to think it was important. So did Steve Carlton. Didn't help them on every pitch, but it did on critical crucial pitches.
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Let's assume pigs can fly....
And lets assume Jes can still practice law
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LMAO
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And lets assume Jes can still practice law
jacey, other than a personal dig, the relevance of that would be what?
At one point you had more than 10% of your posts which were attempts at personal digs at me, and most of them appearing to be based on the misguided assumption that the digs bother. Do you think I have forgotten my disbarrment? Do you think others here are unaware of it? Do you think it makes you look smarter to have remembered it? Or perhaps that it makes you look classier to have brought it up?
If you just want to get that personal attack percentage back up, you could always adopt a personal avatar which would perhaps be something like: Jes Beard still disbarred! You know, get it in with every post.
But if you really want to get in digs that would bother far more, make sure your future posts also point out that I have also become impotent in my old age. Bothers WAY more than disbarrment.
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So do a lot of former lawyers have problems in their briefs?
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No. Former lawyers lose their briefs.
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So do a lot of former lawyers have problems in their briefs?
I've not tried "polling" them, but if it is of interest to you, perhaps you might do so.
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Baseball Prospectus’ Sahadev Sharma was hired by Vineline to write up a 4 part piece on Cubs prospects ("Elites" "up and comers" "phone call away" "bounce back"). Some good stuff from him -- he would describe himself as a Cubs' fan I believe, and he's writing for a Cubs' fan publication here of course.
Relative to Schwarber he notes that:
"The Cubs took Schwarber under the assumption he’d end up in left field, but the improvements he made defensively in such a short timespan were impressive enough for the organization to shift philosophies in his development plan...Schwarber has worked hard with catching instructor Tim Cossins to improve his transfer and set-up, and the results have been eye-opening. "
This will take you to "the elite" section, and you can find links to the other sections from there.
http://vineline.mlblogs.com/2015/02/12/from-the-pages-of-vine-line-minor-league-prospectus-part-1-the-elite/
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It's anthropologically interesting to watch people defiantly not accept that framing is a big deal that has an effect of many runs.
Also the defiant attitude that Castillo is valuable, despite what the entire league has been shown to think of him in his obvious availability.
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What offers have other teams made to the Cubs for Castillo. Are you aware of information that has not been reported in the press.
Exactly what value do you think Castillo has? Will he be released? Will he go through waivers and be assigned to Iowa?
What value has anyone else on this board placed on Castillo? And who has been defiant in their attitude. Do you consider people that point out the meaninglessness of your posts as having attitude problems?
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Keith Law just released his top 20 prospects who will have an impact in 2015. He has Bryant at #1 and Soler at #2. He also indicated Russell would be on the list if not for the fact that he's just not likely to have an opportunity to play enough this year.
http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/post/_/id/3640?ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_law_top20impactprospectsfor2015
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With Bryant spending time in the OF this spring I'm not so sure that Russell won't be given a chance if he warrants it. Even if Baez sticks Russell could take over 3rd and shift Bryant to left. If Russell tears it up at AAA this spring I could see them waiting long enough to move his service clock and arbitration back and call him up mid-June. I'm not sure how much better Russell in the line-up would be than the LF platoon but it would sure be exciting to have a mid year lineup with Soler, Bryant, Baez, Castro, Rizzo and Russell in it.
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BTW my fearless prediction this year is that Albert Almora will take a dramatic step forward and re-insert himself into the long term plan.
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I'd be shocked if Russell doesn't start the year at Iowa.
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I think his days in AA are over.
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I meant AAA, I fixed it.
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I would prefer to see Russell start in AA. He's 21 ... I see no reason to be so aggressive. Let him dominate AA ... it would be nice if after rushing Baez .. and in my opinion they did rush him ... that they take their time with Russell. ETA in mid-2016 if everything goes well. Dominate for half a season in AA ... IF that happens ... he goes to AAA. If he excels in @ 400ABs ... up with the Cubs. Also ... I am not very familiar with baseball contracts ... so perhaps this isn't relevant .. but if Russell and Bryant start their MLB service time in the same season .... won't their contracts be up in the same season? Wouldnt staggering expiring contracts be a good idea ... assuming both players become impact guys?
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To be a free agent you need 6 full seasons of MLB service time. About 21 days in the minors is all you need to push back his free agency. Assuming Bryant stays in Iowa to start the season he wouldn't be a free agent until 2022. If Russell comes up in 2015 (and stays) or starts 2016 in the majors he would also be a free agent in 2022.
Russell already has 250+ AB in AA with wRC+ of 173 and 141. He's dominated AA already and strike outs aren't a concern like with Baez. If Russell was still with the A's chances are pretty decent that he would be their opening day SS, so it isn't like the Cubs are rushing him through levels. The problem with waiting until mid-2016 with Russell is he may not be super great when he first comes up, so your looking at 2017 before the Cubs get decent productions. That is wasting 2 of the best seasons of Lester/Arreita/Rizzo/Castro.
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Yeah, Russell probably is a starter in major leagues in 2015 for a number of organizations.
Could be with Cubs too but other things might have to happen with other guys:
... if Bryant doesn't look good at 3B and moves to OF, opening for Russell.
... if Baez struggles with contact issues and isn't starting in majors, opening for Russell.
... if Cubs look to make mid-season major trade (Hamels?) and ready to deal Castro mid-season, opening for Russell.
... if a starting IFer gets hurt, opening for Russell.
... if Cubs are clearly a 2015 contender by mid-season and brass feels that Russell in majors in some capacity clearly improves the club for a post-season run, opening for Russell. For service time issues, don't see just a September call-up for Russell. If he comes up, likely would be much earlier.
Otherwise, possible scenario is that Russell situation is a 2016 redux of Bryant/2015: a few weeks back in minors for service time issues and an early 2016 call-up.
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I'm always the cautious one, but I don't see this really being Russell's time yet. He was an .850-OPS guy in 60 AA games. Scouts like him, .850-OPS is pretty good, and he's got no major cautions. But I don't think an .850-OPS guy in AA is so dominant that it proves that he's ready to be big-league good right now.
If he can sustain or improve on that, great. But it's not like 50-games of .850 will necessary stay that good if he plays another 50 games in AA (guys go up and down all the time.) So sustaining at at least that level of excellence seems desirable. And improving seems pretty desirable, too. The premise with "he's only 21", "he's only 22" is that young guys are supposed to keep improving faster than their level of competition. Sometimes they do, but it's not rare when they don't. If he goes up to PCL and struggles like Baez with a PCL-mediocre low-.800's OPS, people will want to promote him because he's Addison Russell, touted prospect. But guys who are really big-league ready ought to be sustaining pretty high production numbers in that league if they're ready. Hope he does produce great and is ready soon.
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I agree. There are probably exceptions, but I don't think most high impact prospects should be promoted until they dominate their league, regardless of age and experience. In my opinion, more prospects are hurt by being rushed than are hurt by being promoted too slowly.
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But I don't think an .850-OPS guy in AA is so dominant that it proves that he's ready to be big-league good right now.
It isn't.
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I'm always the cautious one, but I don't see this really being Russell's time yet. He was an .850-OPS guy in 60 AA games. Scouts like him, .850-OPS is pretty good, and he's got no major cautions. But I don't think an .850-OPS guy in AA is so dominant that it proves that he's ready to be big-league good right now.
If he can sustain or improve on that, great. But it's not like 50-games of .850 will necessary stay that good if he plays another 50 games in AA (guys go up and down all the time.) So sustaining at at least that level of excellence seems desirable. And improving seems pretty desirable, too. The premise with "he's only 21", "he's only 22" is that young guys are supposed to keep improving faster than their level of competition. Sometimes they do, but it's not rare when they don't. If he goes up to PCL and struggles like Baez with a PCL-mediocre low-.800's OPS, people will want to promote him because he's Addison Russell, touted prospect. But guys who are really big-league ready ought to be sustaining pretty high production numbers in that league if they're ready. Hope he does produce great and is ready soon.
As we've discussed before, Baez crushed AAA from mid-May to his early August call-up. Don't think his major league woes had much of anything to do with lack of additional minor league seasoning. His flaws were exposed at major league level. Doubt that another few hundred or whatever pre call-up AAA at bats would have prepared him any better. Just had to see big league pitching and try to adjust going forward.
Think the "domination" of minors is way overrated. Think it's rare that a position player prospect is hurt long-term by an "early" call-up. Some guys (B. Jackson, Vitters) just get exposed in majors and never adjust and other guys only get so far because of significant flaws in approach or pitch recognition (C. Patterson). Don't think there is any evidence that Patterson was hurt by his call-up. Actually had best season at age 23.
Some guys are just best suited by exposure to big league pitching without first "dominating" their previous level. Ron Santo was called up mid-season from AAA with a 268-351-412 line. He was ready to go and compete in majors at age 20. Sandberg's last AAA season was a .749 OPS season. Maybe he doesn't reach top form in 1984 without the 1,400 plate appearances he had in majors in 1982 and 1983. Why wait for a "domination" AAA season.
Don't think anybody is "hurt" by staying in minors longer: but it's just a waste of time for some guys. Is wasting your time being "hurt?" Maybe.
Think pitchers are a bit different. Takes a bulldog mentality to face major league hitters and there is an injury risk of course for pitchers. Don't think pitchers have to "dominate" either but show they won't be scared and know what they're doing on the mound.
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Think the "domination" of minors is way overrated. Think it's rare that a position player prospect is hurt long-term by an "early" call-up. Some guys (B. Jackson, Vitters) just get exposed in majors and never adjust and other guys only get so far because of significant flaws in approach or pitch recognition (C. Patterson). Don't think there is any evidence that Patterson was hurt by his call-up. Actually had best season at age 23.
So once such players are returned to the minors, the minor league pitchers then exploit the "significant flaws in approach" which got "exposed in the majors"?
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I think just the opposite. Confidence is often the difference between a successful major leaguer and a failure. Anyone that is rated that highly in AAA is likely to have the talent to succeed. An early call up can be ruinous to that confidence for a kid that is not mentally or physically ready for the top competition. A three month success is hardly enough for most players to establish themselves in any league. A batting average of .278 with greater than 25% strikeout rate is hardly a sign that he had mastered the competition level in the various minor league levels.
Hopefully, the Cubs MLB team will be good enough in the future that they don't have to move
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Just got the 2015 BA Prospect Handbook. Not sure if Cubs #11-20 have already been posted but here it is.
11. Tseng 12. Stinnett 13. Caratini 14. Zastryzny 15. Zagunis 16. Black 17. Hannemann 18. Blackburn 19. Steele 20. Jimenez 21. Rademacher 22. Jokisch 23. Clifton 24. Candelario 25. Vogelbach 26. Sands 27. Mitchell 28. Cease 29. Norwood 30. D. Torrez
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Kiley McDaniel did a July 2 update. The Cubs aren't linked to any of the top 5 guys. Heredia, who was linked to the Cubs, is being mentioned as a likely Dodger target now. It would be interesting to see if the Cubs are still going over or if they will hold off.
He mentions 5 teams will likely go over, the Dodgers, Royals, Phillies, Blue Jays are mentioned in the article as likely to go over.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/july-2nd-plans-are-coming-into-focus/
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Just got the 2015 BA Prospect Handbook. Not sure if Cubs #11-20 have already been posted but here it is.
11. Tseng 12. Stinnett 13. Caratini 14. Zastryzny 15. Zagunis 16. Black 17. Hannemann 18. Blackburn 19. Steele 20. Jimenez 21. Rademacher 22. Jokisch 23. Clifton 24. Candelario 25. Vogelbach 26. Sands 27. Mitchell 28. Cease 29. Norwood 30. D. Torrez
That list is tremendous....Many of us, just a few years ago, would have been very pleased to have several of these guys in our top 10
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Kiley McDaniel did a July 2 update. The Cubs aren't linked to any of the top 5 guys. Heredia, who was linked to the Cubs, is being mentioned as a likely Dodger target now. It would be interesting to see if the Cubs are still going over or if they will hold off.
He mentions 5 teams will likely go over, the Dodgers, Royals, Phillies, Blue Jays are mentioned in the article as likely to go over.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/july-2nd-plans-are-coming-into-focus/
It sounds like there are two very extraordinary talents in next years July 2nd class, both of whom eclipse any of the talent available in this years class. One gets Miguel Cabrera comps, the other has Piazza's name bandied about him. I wonder if the Cubs are thinking that their resources would be better spent staying within the limitations this year and still drafting a solid class, while saving the big bullets for next year.
That would man an average class this year, and the ability to go all out next, when none of the Yankees, BoSox, Dodgers, etc., can compete for the high-ceiling talent, in what is likely the last July 2 signing period.
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I really hope the Cubs aren't the the team that has 6 guys "signed" for $7.5 million.
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Why?
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Because they are the wrong 6 guys.
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Why?
If your going to give up high end IFA/Cuban talent for 2 years it needs to be an over whelming haul. Heredia +6 guys and one of the Cuban pitchers would be more what I'd be looking for. Throw in the fact that you could be the only big spending team for the 2 2016 kids it would be really tempting to wait a year.
That said the Cubs are far better at this and have more info than what I have.
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Betting everything on how a couple of 15 year olds develop is really placing your eggs in one basket.
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I think there is a decent argument to make that avoiding the high cost 16 year old talent may be a smart thing to do and instead just sign cheap guys unless there is a Sano, Hernandez, Caberra type talent. I'm more worried about missing 2 years of Cuban guys, because no body really knows how many Moncada/Soler type guys are on the island.
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Seven and one half.
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Pretty interesting Jesse Rogers interview with Addison Russell.
http://espn.go.com/espnradio/chicago/play?id=12413850
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That said the Cubs are far better at this and have more info than what I have.
sacrilege.
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Betting everything on how a couple of 15 year olds develop is really placing your eggs in one basket.
No one is talking about betting everything on a couple of 15 year olds. What CBJ and I are saying is that it would be interesting to simply do the normal thing this year - i.e. spend millions of dollars on intl talent - and go into next year as one of the only big spenders, in a year when there is potentially more high-end talent. That doesn't preclude a great July 2 signing season this year. It just means not going into penalty land.
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I don't remember the exact number, but I think their cap this year is about 4 million dollars. Last year they spent about 14 million. 4 million will give them one top player or maybe 2 in the 10 to 15 range.
If they are certain that next year (2016) will be a bumper year, fine. But as I read it, there are two "super prospects" in the batch, both of them about 15 years old. Is it deeper next year than it is this year? I don't know.
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Pretty interesting Jesse Rogers interview with Addison Russell.
http://espn.go.com/espnradio/chicago/play?id=12413850
Thanks for posting this.... but what about it was interesting? I was thinking "vapid" when I was listening.
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What do you think he could have said that you would not consider "vapid"?
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What do you think he could have said that you would not consider "vapid"?
Who is the "he" you reference? Rogers or Russell?
Any number of things would qualify as not being vapid, though during most of it I didn't hear any. Most of the questions were unlikely to elicit anything else, one of my favorite examples of that was asking Russell how it felt to be Bryant's teammate. It was worth hearing that Russell is eager to get experience at 2B and 3B and that he sounded as if he would be quite happy to play either, but other than that... not much there.
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Who is the "he" you reference? Rogers or Russell?
Either one.
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Either one.
My response is the same as the rest of my response was before your clarification. And my earlier question remains -- what about it was interesting?
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Very little. But I can't remember too many interviews with young prospects that WERE particularly interesting. If you had been conducting the interview, what questions would you have asked to make it less bland.
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Maybe he would have asked if Schwarber had any chance of breaking with the big club out of spring training?
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On the MLB Network 30 Clubs in 30 Days Cubs edition, Dan O'Dowd (former Rockies GM) compared Schwarber to Jim Thome and said that his bat is probably ready for the Majors right now or could be by the end of the year. He also said that how long Schwarber spends in the minors depends on how he progresses as a catcher and whether or not the organization wants to move him to left field.
He also had high praise for Kris Bryant and Addison Russell.
On the same program, John Smoltz picked the Cubs to tie for the second wild card and force a play-in game at 84 wins. O'Dowd had them falling just short of a playoff spot and Dan Plesac did his schtick about the big blue train and he picked them to be in the wild card hunt.
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Arguello tweeted that Stinnett has been looking good so far. He might move quickly through the system.
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Among other problems, the drop in oil prices has Venezuela on the verge of total collapse.
But their exit leaves just four major league teams braving it out in Venezuela -- Detroit, Tampa Bay, Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=12481289 (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=12481289)
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Az Phil has had some minor league camp reports. As he notes, usually goes who are throwing 30-45 pitches (2-3 innings) are being considered for rotation use, and 1-inning guys are relief-tracked. Not sure how many days he's seen, but not surprises. Paniagua relief. Underwood started, but got lifted after only one inning for some unknown reason.
Some guys who've been in the starter pool:
Sands, Clifton, Null, Norwood, Ryan Williams, Zach Hedges, Conway, Leal (I assume those would cover South Bend and perhaps some XST or Myrtle)
Stinnett, Skulina, Underwood, Tseng (Phil hasn't mentioned seeing him throw, but I'm just assuming), Blackburn, Torrez, Martinez (I assume those could cover Myrtle)
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http://m.cubs.mlb.com/news/article/113091452/mlb-pipeline-checks-in-from-cubs-camp
Callis: On the Minor League side, right-hander Tyler Skulina is showing why the Cubs invested $800,000 in him as a fourth-round Draft pick in 2013. Fully recovered from a sore knee that hampered him last year, he's back to throwing 92-95 mph fastballs and hard sliders with downhill plane and difficult angle.
McLeod"His arrow is pointing north after he understood what he needed to do as a pro," McLeod said of Underwood. "He has the most upside of all of our starting pitchers. He can sit 94 mph and he has two swing-and-miss offspeed pitches. His changeup can be very good."
Stinnett: There are certain things in my delivery that could help me be more consistent. My front foot was a little unstable, so I've been working on that. It's helping me throw strikes more. I've trying to develop my third pitch, my changeup, that I'll need to be a starter.
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Recently listened to the Baseball Prospectus Cubs season preview podcast. They spent some time talking with Chris Crawford, their senior prospect writer. What stood out to me was how high Crawford was on Gleyber Torres -- as I heard it, he felt Torres deserved to be considered in the same elite tier as the top-top guys in the system.
You can find the link to that podcast here (Effectively Wild episode 631):
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/blog/daily_podcast/
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Thanks, shasson. That was very interesting. Yes, he was very positive about Torres. Cool. He was also hugely positive on Bryant and Russell, and pretty much on McKinney. Very positive on Sands, too. He was less positive than most on Baez, and relatively low on Almora.
He was pretty favorable on Bijan Rademacher, who has also gotten some favorable evals from some other sources (Callis at mlb, and Baseball America.) an interesting note in the BA prospects book said that Rademacher, who has not been much of a power guy, was in the FSL HR-derby and put on a show there. Not sure how relevant that is, if his power swing and his in-game swing are two different swings and the power doesn't apply to games. But, it might speak to having some untapped power potential. Sometimes with experience a guy can better tap into his power potential, or get smarter at choosing counts or situations where he takes more of a HR swing. Hopefully that will be true for him, and he'll emerge as a pretty good hitter. The caution, I think, is that a lot of these scouting guys go to these all-star games. So perhaps he had one good but flukey and unsustainable and misrepresentative 45-minutes in a HR-derby, but that's what all of these evaluators are remembering and so they are all exaggerating his potential. Of course, perhaps other team scouts are also there and may exaggerate his value for the same reason, so maybe it pumps up his trade value? In any event, Crawford seemed to think Rademacher had some very interesting potential, possibly as a starter someday and perhaps even an all-star if everything went right for him. I'd think that Southern League this year will be a good opportunity for him. At 23 he's not that old yet, and perhaps if the power is growing, he's looking and learning how to tap into it better, and he moves from the HR-hard FSL into HR-friendly Tennessee, perhaps the HR's will go up, and his numbers will look really good, and he'll have some nice value as a trade piece or as a bench/depth guy?
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ArizonPhil knows everything: " Jen-Ho Tseng and six relievers combined to toss a four-hit shutout with 17 strikeouts, David Bote singled twice, doubled, walked, stole two bases, scored three runs, and drove-in another, and Shamil Ubiera singled twice, walked twice, and knocked-in three runs, as the Cubs blanked the Langley Blaze 10-0 in Minor League Camp...A member of the British Columbia Premier Baseball League (BCPBL), the Blaze are one of the top amateur baseball clubs in Canada"
http://thecubreporter.com/03172015/tseng-company-fan-flames-cub-hitters-extinguish-blaze#more
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Hadn't heard Phil mention Tseng before, so glad to hear he's fine and healthy.
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Baseball Prospectus writer Jordan Gorosh was watching the Cubs minor league scrimmage today. Some of his tweets:
-Dan Vogelbach 2-2 with loud contact to the middle of the field. He can rake.
-Jose Rosario with a lively 93-96 mph FB, 83-84 mph SL w avg potential. No command, but decent RP starter kit
-In his second inning of work Rosario dropped in some 86-87 mph CHs. Has a feel for the pitch. Could be a quick mover as a reliever
- Matt Brazis, acquired for Justin Ruggiano, pumping an easy 93-94; 84 mph hard breaker, 77 mph CH. Cmnd profile as well
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-Dan Vogelbach 2-2 with loud contact to the middle of the field. He can rake.
Cue Jeff with his "He'll need those raking skills for his future lawn care business" reply.
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He'll need those raking skills for his future lawn care business.
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Baseball Prospectus writer Jordan Gorosh was watching the Cubs minor league scrimmage today. Some of his tweets:
- Matt Brazis, acquired for Justin Ruggiano, pumping an easy 93-94; 84 mph hard breaker, 77 mph CH. Cmnd profile as well
Interesting. That sounds like major-league plausible arm. Guy had 2.36 ERA last year, between the offense-heavy Cal league and AA (he was 1.64 in Southern League), with 84K/18BB/74IP. I'd assumed he was a minor-league fastball beating minor-leaguers with a breaking ball. But if he's got solid fastball velocity, then he might reach the majors someday.
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Interesting. That sounds like major-league plausible arm. Guy had 2.36 ERA last year, between the offense-heavy Cal league and AA (he was 1.64 in Southern League), with 84K/18BB/74IP. I'd assumed he was a minor-league fastball beating minor-leaguers with a breaking ball. But if he's got solid fastball velocity, then he might reach the majors someday.
He's also got a nice difference between his fastball and change -- 93 to 77.
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Arizona Phil had two articles up about Thursday and Friday minor league play. Eloy Jiminez hit HR's on each of those days. And stole a base one of them. Last summer he had a couple of injuries, that he's running well enough to steal a base might reflect well that his legs/ankles are healthy.
Would be fun to see him emerge as a good game-hitter this year, whether in XST and Eugene, or perhaps at some point in South Bend.
Most tall guys with serious power potential can't actually hit very well. Hopefully he'll emerge as one of the rare ones who can.
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Gorosh from BP has video of Jimenez hitting. The swing was pretty quiet and he hit a line drive to RF for an out.
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Good to see...
http://chicago.suntimes.com/baseball/7/71/464489/forget-cubs-albert-almora-full-bloom-spring
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Thanks for the Almora piece. Needless to say, it'd be huge if he blossoms into the player they felt he could be when they drafted him. The strike zone comments sound both encouraging and also a bit too Josh Vitterish for my liking. I've long thought it's hard for players to dramatically change their approach. Let's hope Almora is an exception.
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Thanks, Dusty, encouraging article. We'll see how it works. Interesting that the article didn't have a single note about his leg kick. His story was kind of funny, that as a 4th year pro he's maybe never before actually taken a pitch that might have been a strike, but wasn't called as one. Also kind of funny that he's talking about working deeper counts; but his spring results in 22 PA show one walk and two K's.
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I like walks more than JR, but Almora is kinda of an interesting type of player. He has extreme contact ability so he may never walk a lot. I would be more interested in him swinging at pitches that he can drive and do damage with instead of just pitches he can put into play. He will likely never be a big walk guy, but he won't be a big K guy either and that can be ok. It can be OK as long as he swings at the right pitches.
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exactly...lay off the pitcher's pitches, and be patient to see if he'll make a mistake...
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I like walks more than JR, but Almora is kinda of an interesting type of player. He has extreme contact ability so he may never walk a lot. I would be more interested in him swinging at pitches that he can drive and do damage with instead of just pitches he can put into play. He will likely never be a big walk guy, but he won't be a big K guy either and that can be ok. It can be OK as long as he swings at the right pitches.
Haha, well actually I was thinking about something along those lines the other day while I was sifting through players for our fantasy draft and trying to find guys who could be productive without striking out.
But the way players are brought up and taught today, you'll rarely see a player developed to be a Tony Gwynn, Wade Boggs, or Rod Carew type hitter again it seems like . . . guys who get on base by getting a lot of base hits. In today's game, there are so many hitters and so many mediocre ones who strike out 120-140 or even 150-180 times a season. Those guys may walk more than they used to, but they strike out a whole lot more. By the 6th or 7th round of our draft, it just seemed like there were so many mediocre hitters who weren't giving themselves chances to get a hit since they K so frequently. A lot of them may have walk rates in the 1 BB per 10-11 AB range, but they're not necessarily good or productive hitters.
I'm not sure that's really made for a better game or a more watchable game either. And I'm not even sure the greater appreciation of walks is resulting in better OBP's or better hitters. Since steroids have gone out of the game and since players are taught to be more patient and to see more pitches, it just seems like you have a lot of guys who walk a decent amount, strike out a lot, and don't hit for as much power or have as many base hits as they used to.
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I'm not sure that's really made for a better game or a more watchable game either. And I'm not even sure the greater appreciation of walks is resulting in better OBP's or better hitters. Since steroids have gone out of the game and since players are taught to be more patient and to see more pitches, it just seems like you have a lot of guys who walk a decent amount, strike out a lot, and don't hit for as much power or have as many base hits as they used to.
And therein lies the "pace of game problem" the media loves to b!tch about.
There's so little contact in today's game that a single to the opposite field is a rarity. Even a simple ground ball up the middle seems like a refreshing change from strike-ball-ball-strike-foul-ball-foul-foul-foul-called-strike-three.
The time of game has never really been a problem but it's just sitting in a seat and having to seemingly look at inning after inning of guys staring at pitch after pitch without even a hint of trying to put anything into play.
If there's a three and a half hour game that's 8-7 and there's a ton of action with a lot of base hits, no one is complaining because there's excitement the whole time. But if that same three and a half hours are filled with nine hits, eleven walks, twenty strike outs and only three total runs between both teams, then it's a frustrating game for fans (not to mention managers).
All this window dressing with the pitch clock and having hitters stay in the box between pitches isn't going to do anything to change that.
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StrikeZone, that's a damn excellent point, and I haven't even thought about MLB's pace of play problems along those lines before.
Back in the 80's, yeah we weren't as smart about the importance of getting on base and or limiting a pitcher's workload, but players got base hits, they stole bases, and promising pitchers weren't getting Tommy John surgeries after their second or third seasons since they weren't required to strike everyone out to be effective.
One of the reasons I haven't gone to as many Vanderbilt baseball games as I used to is because their style of play and the dead bat college game in general is kind of slow and boring to watch. Tim Corbin is a great coach, and Vanderbilt is a great college baseball program. Still, they will take a ton of pitches, and every single hitter will step out of the box and slow the game down after every single one of those pitches. I'm not sure if it's the same way in the last year or two for them, but 3-5 years ago, you would routinely have 2-0 games that would take like 4 1/2 hours to play.
MLB seems to becoming more and more like dead bat college baseball in that players don't hit for power anymore, and they keep running long counts and don't do anything exciting at the conclusion of those long counts.
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One of the reasons teams wanted hitters to take pitches was to burn through the starter and get to the bullpen. In the game today with every team having multiple 95+ guys it may not make as much sense to do that anymore. I think Theo mentioned something along those lines.
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If they would limit mid-inning pitching changes to one per inning, complaints about the "pace of the game" would be largely eliminated.
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I like walks more than JR, but Almora is kinda of an interesting type of player. He has extreme contact ability so he may never walk a lot. I would be more interested in him swinging at pitches that he can drive and do damage with instead of just pitches he can put into play. He will likely never be a big walk guy, but he won't be a big K guy either and that can be ok. It can be OK as long as he swings at the right pitches.
If he has good strike zone judgement, is able to drive some pitches deep, and excellent contacts skills, he will never come close to reaching his potential as a hitter unless he does become a hitter with a significant (something the top side of 70, and preferably the top side of 100) number of walks.
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exactly...lay off the pitcher's pitches, and be patient to see if he'll make a mistake...
If he has the kind of contact ability most seem to say, he needs to lay off more than just the pitcher's pitches. Until he gets a 2nd strike on him he needs to lay of anything other than pitches in the portion of the strike zone where he is able to hit the ball with power.
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The league OBP last year was .312. Cubs had only a limited number of guys who carried .300 OBP.
If you hit for a high average, he can have a decent OBP without many walks. And if you play an excellent CF, and can hit at least a reasonable number of HR's, you don't need to have an above-average OBP to be a useful player.
But, last year he hit .270, which would be good for a HR/walks guy. But for such an extreme anti-walk guy, .270 was only enough to support a .291 OBP. .250 OBP at Tennessee, with his .234 average.
He doesn't need to be an OBP champion to be useful to the Cubs. But assuming he goes as low-walk guy, his contact better get him a high batting average. Which goes back to needing quality of contact, not just ground balls to 2nd base.
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If he has good strike zone judgement, is able to drive some pitches deep, and excellent contacts skills, he will never come close to reaching his potential as a hitter unless he does become a hitter with a significant (something the top side of 70, and preferably the top side of 100) number of walks.
A list of players in the top 20 in majors in wRC+ who didn't walk more than 70 times.
Jose Abreu
Michael Brantley
Miguel Cabrera
Buster Posey
Matt Kemp
Nelson Cruz
Josh Harrison
The complete list of major league players that walked more than 100 (BB+IBB)
Carlos Santana
Jose Bautista
Giancarlo Stanton
Excluding IBB only 17 players walked more than 70 times.
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If he has good strike zone judgement, is able to drive some pitches deep, and excellent contacts skills, he will never come close to reaching his potential as a hitter unless he does become a hitter with a significant (something the top side of 70, and preferably the top side of 100) number of walks.
In the entire MLB, there were only two players who topped 100 walks. Seems like a rather high bar.
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He doesn't need to be an OBP champion to be useful to the Cubs. But assuming he goes as low-walk guy, his contact better get him a high batting average. Which goes back to needing quality of contact, not just ground balls to 2nd base.
A list of players in the top 20 in majors in wRC+ who didn't walk more than 70 times.....
In the entire MLB, there were only two players who topped 100 walks. Seems like a rather high bar.
Did any of you actually read what I wrote?
I said nothing about whether he would be a valuable player or a good hitter. I addressed his strike zone judgement and contact ability and pointed out that as good as both are HE needs to lay off even pitches in the strike zone unless they are in the are where he can drive them or he has two strikes on him, and if he does that he will draw well more than 70 walks a year. He can certainly add a great deal of value to a team without ever reaching his potential as a hitter. He wil not, however, reach his potential as a hitter without drawing a high number of walks.
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In the entire MLB, there were only two players who topped 100 walks. Seems like a rather high bar.
Jesmath!
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Did any of you actually read what I wrote?
I said nothing about whether he would be a valuable player or a good hitter. I addressed his strike zone judgement and contact ability and pointed out that as good as both are HE needs to lay off even pitches in the strike zone unless they are in the are where he can drive them or he has two strikes on him, and if he does that he will draw well more than 70 walks a year. He can certainly add a great deal of value to a team without ever reaching his potential as a hitter. He wil not, however, reach his potential as a hitter without drawing a high number of walks.
What if he doesn't have the potential to draw a high number of walks?
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Just read the quote above. Jes, nearly 40% of the board has you on Ignore, so, no, most actually don't read what you write.
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Did any of you actually read what I wrote?
Nope! I'm trying a new speed reading technique I just learned. It's called Jesreading. Works great!
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Aww, man, I was setting myself up for an ignore feature joke, but Curt beat me to the punch!
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What if he doesn't have the potential to draw a high number of walks?
If he has the strike zone judgment and bat control he is supposed to have, and he is able to drive the ball with authority, as scouts say he can (even if his perforance last year did not support that), then he has the potential to draw a high number of walks.
But I am not saying his potential will be reached simply by walking a lot. I am pointing out that someone with his strike zone jugement and bat control, AND who has the ability to drive the ball at times, needs to lay off even pitches IN the strike zone unless it is in an area where he can drive it, until he has two strikes on him. That would essentially be the Ted Williams approach, where walks were not the goal, but were instead a by-product of a disciplined approach at the plate.
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Kind of defeats purpose of Ignore feature if the ignored post shows up in the quote section of somebody else's post.
Is it true that at 50% or more Ignore, that doesn't happen?
Come on, folks.
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I'm just glad to know that Buster Posey hasn't reached his offensive potential because he can't walk 70 times in a year.
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Regarding taking pitches and pace of game--pitches per plate appearance is definitely a factor.
In 2014, PPA was 3.80 in the NL.
In 1988, PPA was 3.54 in NL.
(Can't find pre-1988 PPA on BR).
In any case, that adds about 1/2 inning of extra time to the average game since 1988. About 70-80 total PAs per game for both teams and 1/4 a pitch per PA. In the neighborhood of 20 extra pitches per game.
Not to mention the dawdling. Think the foot-in-the-box will help when becomes accepted practice eventually. Watch a game from the 1960s. Big difference. Think it will encourage the pitcher to take less time too if the batter isn't roaming around after every pitch.
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I'm just glad to know that Buster Posey hasn't reached his offensive potential because he can't walk 70 times in a year.
If he has the same strike zone judgment and contact ability Amaro has, then if he is unable to draw 70 walks a year (though in 148 games in 2012 he drew 69 walks, meaning if he would have played in another 7 games, he would have been in 155 games, which is what I would expect a healthy non-catcher to play in a full season if he is a regular, and in 7 more games he would have been on pace fro drawing just more than 70 walks), he has not reached his offensive potential.
Posey actually supports my position rather than negates it.
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In 2014, PPA was 3.80 in the NL.
In 1988, PPA was 3.54 in NL.
I would suggest that's because the average pitcher has much better stuff now than the one 25+ years ago. Harder to put pitches in play means more pitches. Also correlates with far more strikeouts which of course takes more pitches, generally speaking.
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Not to mention (nearly) every game is on TV now, which adds tons of commercial time between innings, pitching changes (which have increased, also) and all the visits to the mound that come with those.
But the commercial breaks aren't going anywhere.
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Regarding taking pitches and pace of game--pitches per plate appearance is definitely a factor.
In 2014, PPA was 3.80 in the NL. In 1988, PPA was 3.54 in NL. ...In any case, that adds about 1/2 inning of extra time ...
Not to mention the dawdling. Think the foot-in-the-box will help when becomes accepted practice eventually. Watch a game from the 1960s. Big difference. Think it will encourage the pitcher to take less time too if the batter isn't roaming around after every pitch.
I like the foot-in-box idea, and I think if the batter would stay in the box and the pitcher would pitch the ball it would all be very nice. I sure wouldn't mind.
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http://www.thecubreporter.com/03242015/pelicans-dont-know-way-beat-san-jose#more
Wild is wild.
*Dillon Maples pitched one inning, 3 walks and 2 wild pitches.
*Bard walked all four batters in his outing.
Hendricks sharp.
Stinnett gave up 4 earned runs.
James Norwood pitched 4 shutout innings, retired the last 11 guys. Sounds like he's gotten the opportunity and is winning a rotation spot for South Bend.
Steele pitched a day or two back, but only one inning. I'm assuming he's XST-bound.
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Too bad about Bard. I was pulling for him.
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I was also. But I don't remember anyone that has come back from the yips, at least in baseball.
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I can't remember anybody either, although there may be many who I'm not aware of. Other posters, have there really been some?
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Didn't the Dodger-Yankee 2B whose name escapes me "sorta" recover? I thought he at least got to the point where he could throw it to first if he didn't think about it. Sax?
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Does Rick Ankiel count?
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I wonder if he ever got it straightened out from the mound. I still remember how he and Wood came up about the same time and we all figured they would battle for a dozen years. How quickly things changed.
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He pitched again very briefly before converting full-time to the OF...
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But wasn't his pitching erratic and that's why he went to the OF?
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Another gem by Tony...letting the kid stink in a playoff game to the point of ruin.
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Per baseball-reference.com...
In 2004, Ankiel pitched 23.2 innings in the minors, allowing 9 hits, with 2 walks and 23 strikeouts and 0 wild pitches.
In 2004, Ankiel pitched 10 innings in the majors, allowing 10 hits, with 1 walk and 9 strikeouts and 1 wild pitch.
Small sample size, for sure, but control didn't seem to be an issue at all...
I remember thinking to myself "Really??!!"
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Didn't Chuck Knoblauch recover fromt the yips?
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Yeah that's pretty decent. Yet he decided to go to the OF. He was a decent hitting pitcher.
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Knoblauch was a second baseman before going to the OF.
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Knoblauch only played in the OF the last 2 years of his career, I thought he had the yips before then.
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Knoblauch only played in the OF the last 2 years of his career, I thought he had the yips before then.
He did.
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http://www.thecubreporter.com/03252015/smokies-drop-baybears-aces-trump-i-cubs-riverview
Wild is Wild. Black with 4 walks and a WP in his 2.1 innings.
Edwards, interestingly enough, pitched 1 inning of relief. All the starters seems to be pitching start innings. Why is he doing a 1-inning relief deal? Have they already given up on him as a starter?
Well, he walked 3 and gave up 3 runs in his one inning, so maybe he's getting more wild himself.
Roster filler Carlos Pimentel went 4 innings, so perhaps that's one of the AA starters again.
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http://www.thecubreporter.com/03252015/smokies-drop-baybears-aces-trump-i-cubs-riverview
Wild is Wild. Black with 4 walks and a WP in his 2.1 innings.
Edwards, interestingly enough, pitched 1 inning of relief. All the starters seems to be pitching start innings. Why is he doing a 1-inning relief deal? Have they already given up on him as a starter?
Well, he walked 3 and gave up 3 runs in his one inning, so maybe he's getting more wild himself.
Roster filler Carlos Pimentel went 4 innings, so perhaps that's one of the AA starters again.
Edwards may have hit his single inning pitch limit in that one inning with an ugly line like that.
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Maybe Edwards got stuck in traffic on his way to the ballpark?
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Ash Marshall interviewed Madison and posted stuff on Twitter.
-Jimenez and Kevonte Mitchell could go to South Bend
-Zagunis likely to Mrytle Beach and will play mostly CF.
-Stinnett likely to South Bend
-Edwards will be a late decision between Tenn and Iowa
-Russell to Iowa
- Almora likely to Tenn, but the Cubs want him to force their hands. I'm not sure what that means. Would they jump him to Iowa?
-Villaneuva either goes to Tenn or Iowa and is the best defensive 3B
- Bryant if he goes to Iowa will get time in LF
- Cubs want all position prospects to play a second position.
- McKinney might go to Tennesee only thing holding him back is defense
- Schwarber to Tennesee.
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Ash Marshall interviewed Madison and posted stuff on Twitter.
- Bryant if he goes to Iowa will get time in LF
What a fool.... doesn't Maddon know ANYTHING about the defensive spectrum? Or that Mike Olt is a horrible baseball player?
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-Jimenez and Kevonte Mitchell could go to South Bend
-Zagunis likely to Mrytle Beach and will play mostly CF.
-Stinnett likely to South Bend
- Almora likely to Tenn, but the Cubs want him to force their hands. I'm not sure what that means. Would they jump him to Iowa?
-Villaneuva either goes to Tenn or Iowa and is the best defensive 3B
- McKinney might go to Tennesee only thing holding him back is defense
Thanks, fascinating on moving Zagunis to center. Perhaps speaks to how much they like his bat and speed. With Almora being the only CF prospect in his way, the opportunity for him seems pretty good. I wonder if Hannemann is roster-fill at this point, or if he'll just be a utility OFer?
Stinnett interesting, I'd hoped he'd look sharp enough in camp to earn MB, but that doesn't seem to have been true based on the two games Az Phil reported on.
Almora comment seems weird.
Madison seems like he may be a rusher. Even thinking about Almora to Iowa seems an absurd rush; Mitchell to SB seems awfully fast, too.
If McKinney holds at MB, an outfield with McKinney, Zagunis, and Hannemann, with Caratini at catcher, that might end up being a pretty interesting lineup. Candelario back there again, I'd suppose. In a couple of the Az Phil box scores, he seems to be hitting this spring, something that he hasn't done in several years. I wonder if he's perhaps ready to step into some of the production that's been projected for him for years but that he hasn't shown since Dominican League.
And if Torres, Jiminez, and Mitchell were all at SB, that would provide some names to watch, too, although probably doubtful you'd get excellent production that young.
I wonder if Gioskar Amaya, with the switch to catcher, will be XST and Eugene, or whether they'll just rush him right into full-season?
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Just forgot to post it. He had a lot of info
Ash Marshall @AshMarshallMLB · 14h 14 hours ago
Also of note in #Cubs org this spring, converted 2B Gioskar Amaya will be the everyday catcher in South Bend this year. #Cubs love his bat.
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Just forgot to post it. He had a lot of info
Ash Marshall @AshMarshallMLB · 14h 14 hours ago
Also of note in #Cubs org this spring, converted 2B Gioskar Amaya will be the everyday catcher in South Bend this year. #Cubs love his bat.
Good to know the conversion seems to be going well. Hopefully he won't be quite the late bloomer that Chirinos has turned out to be.
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Just forgot to post it. He had a lot of info
Ash Marshall @AshMarshallMLB · 14h 14 hours ago
Also of note in #Cubs org this spring, converted 2B Gioskar Amaya will be the everyday catcher in South Bend this year. #Cubs love his bat.
I like it. Clevenger went back to short-season for some time before he started catching games, Chirinos too, I think? I get that, too. Catching is difficult, so most guys take some time to be decent. The system invests so much in it's young pitchers, you don't really want them afraid to throw the breaking ball because the catcher can't catch them.
Amaya is still only 22, so if he's a natural as a good defensive catcher, he's still got time there. He's not that good a hitter, but he had a .379 OBP at Daytona, so he could be a good OB guy going back down to Midwest League and help SB's offense. Not sure how much they should love his bat, though. 90K/4HR and 109K/5HR, that's not a great K/HR profile. But, it's a way more acceptable for catcher than for 2B.
Anyway, I think that's pretty cool, and think were he to succeed, it would be a really fun story.
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Anybody else having a tough time remembering all these new affiliates? It's gonna take me a while to get used to them.
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SZ...i was thinking the same thing
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https://twitter.com/ashmarshallmlb
"-Zagunis likely to Mrytle Beach and will play mostly CF."
Blue, naive Twitter question blended with Zagunis! I don't read twitter a lot, so I actually don't know exactly how it works.
When I got back to that twitter, I see one tweet saying Zagunis to Myrtle, but I don't see anything about playing mostly center. Is it the case that after a tweet is posted, there is some conversation that can follow that remains viewable for a limited time? But that a day later it's no longer visible? So I'm not seeing that comment because it wasn't in the main tweet, it was in the expanded conversation, but that is now gone?
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https://twitter.com/ashmarshallmlb
"-Zagunis likely to Mrytle Beach and will play mostly CF."
Blue, naive Twitter question blended with Zagunis! I don't read twitter a lot, so I actually don't know exactly how it works.
When I got back to that twitter, I see one tweet saying Zagunis to Myrtle, but I don't see anything about playing mostly center. Is it the case that after a tweet is posted, there is some conversation that can follow that remains viewable for a limited time? But that a day later it's no longer visible? So I'm not seeing that comment because it wasn't in the main tweet, it was in the expanded conversation, but that is now gone?
It's possible that the original tweet had some info and then in the replies it was explained. You can click on the original tweet to expand it to get all the replies.
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It was a reply to Bleacher Nation. It appeared in his timeline for me, but I follow Bleacher Nation. On the link you posted it is under tweets and replies.
Brett Taylor @BleacherNation 17h17 hours ago
Wow, Zagunis to High-A? Suggests either Cubs feel he's come far with glove behind plate, or bat's just too good. https://twitter.com/ashmarshallmlb/status/580914656505503745 …
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@BleacherNation Cubs LOVE his speed and athleticism. Already advanced on basepaths. Will play most in CF, but bat profiles in corners too.
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Thanks. Yeah, I clicked on the original tweet in which he'd mentioned Zagunis, and
It's possible that the original tweet had some info and then in the replies it was explained. You can click on the original tweet to expand it to get all the replies.
Yeah, I did that on the original tweet that had Zagunis for Myrtle, but the replies there only talked about McKinney. But Blue found it. Interesting.
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Seems proof that blue is smarter than a college professor.
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Almora comment seems weird.
Madison seems like he may be a rusher. Even thinking about Almora to Iowa seems an absurd rush;
From everything we have heard, the only aspect of Almora's game about which there appears to be any real concern is is hitting, and, while that is obviously a very important part of his game, if he is hitting well this spring, connecting with authority and no longer appears to be a groundworm assassin when he is at the plate, Iowa doesn't really seem to be a stretch.
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Brady Aiken underwent TJ surgery today.
Could it be that Houston was right in claiming that his undersized ulnar was a medical risk?
On the positive side, he is now likely to be there when the Cubs draft at #9.
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I don't think that's a positive, Dave. I think it means somebody who might have still been there, while he was being taken among the first 8 picks, will now be gone.
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I agree with Dave.
Terrible for the kid, of course, but this looks a lot like the Jeff Hoffman situation last draft, who went #9--right where Cubs pick this coming June.
Assuming this turns out to be routine TJ rehab (which it might not), have to think Cubs would be very interested in drafting a guy who was #1 on their board in 2014. This is potentially the kind of high upside pick Theo and the gang look for. Indeed, I would be concerned he might go earlier to Red Sox or White Sox.
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The Astros dont look so dumb now huh?
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Brady Aiken underwent TJ surgery today. Could it be that Houston was right in claiming that his undersized ulnar was a medical risk? On the positive side, he is now likely to be there when the Cubs draft at #9.
It could be Houston was right. And it could be Houston was wrong. I suspect there have been at least a couple of pitchers drafted out of HS last summer who had "normal sized" ulnar who have also since had TJS, or who will have it very soon. Not exactly a strong case yet for a cause and effect relationship.
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There will never be a cause and effect relationship that can be proven.
However, there were several hundred pitchers drafted last June, and if you are right, perhaps 2 or 3 have had TJ surgery since then. What are the odds that the guy with the small ulner was one of the 1.5 percent that needed surgery?
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Dave, you can't prove anything. If people are convinced that Houston fabricated the elbow health concern (at the expense of losing the top pick; losing Nix; and paying whatever grievance settlement they ended up paying Nix), the fact that Aiken's elbow gave out isn't going to change anybody's mind. It's not going to prove that Houston actually had any sincere concerns about this elbow, rather than just using it as a pretext; and it's not going to prove that the actual injury had anything to do with the issue that they were worried about.
Note: The short UCL has been mentioned. But I wonder if their doctors ever confirmed that was the *only* concern that manifested? I'd think that some exams could show two or more issues.
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Can't we believe Houston screwed up because we just hate them? Not as much as the Cardinals, of course, but a little bit. Not as much as the Brewers either, but more than Twins or Royals. I'm sure they're still bastards.
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Anybody else having a tough time remembering all these new affiliates? It's gonna take me a while to get used to them.
How long have they had Myrtle Beach? I noticed that while down there last weekend.
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Oh... Nevermind. That switch was this offseason. Cubs first year in Myrtle Beach SC...
CAROLINA LEAGUE:
**Carolina Mudcats contract with Cleveland Indians has expired, no word on new affiliation.
**Lynchburg Hillcats switch from Atlanta Braves to Indians
**Myrtle Beach Pelicans switch from Texas Rangers to Chicago Cubs
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/9/21/6781291/minor-league-affiliates-shuffle-for-2015
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There will never be a cause and effect relationship that can be proven. However, there were several hundred pitchers drafted last June, and if you are right, perhaps 2 or 3 have had TJ surgery since then. What are the odds that the guy with the small ulner was one of the 1.5 percent that needed surgery?
After a number of examples a cause and effect is proven to the satisfaction of most people, particularly if there are relative few exceptions to the pattern.
One example is not a pattern. One example is close to statistically meaningless.
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In most instances, I dislike sacrifice bunts by position players, when advancing a player to second or to third base, but I believe that squeeze bunts are an exception. In the first inning of the Rockies game, the Cubs were practicing it, with great success.
Like stealing bases, you have to have a fairly high success rate in order to make it worthwhile. Has anyone ever seen a study of how often squeeze bunts (suicide and/or safety) are successful? The usual figure on stolen bases is that a 70% success rate is the cutoff for making them worthwhile. I would think that something less than that would make squeeze bunts worthwhile.
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Not sure about percentages, but I know they sure deflate the defense when successful and invigorate the defense when they fail. Successful ones demoralize more than 3 run homers or critical errors. Never quite understood that, other than the feeling of helplessness they create.
Heh, in high school ball you instruct the pitcher to throw at the batter; in the pros that will get you thrown out of the game.
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They certainly can create confusion in the defense. At one time, pitchers in the MLB were instructed to throw at the batter's head if they saw the runner breaking for the plate. Most batters would hit the ground rather than trying to bunt a ball coming at his skull. As Curt says, I doubt that they are taught that in this day and age.
If you tried a squeeze bunt on Bob Gibson, he would not only throw at the batter's head right then, he would also do it the next two times he came to bat.
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I originally said we taught to throw at the batter's head and then dropped it to batter. Don't need a law suit from some kid that got nailed in 1974.
BTW, school law attorneys told baseball coaches to tell their players that the suicide squeeze is a dangerous play. Some kid slid into home on the play, caught his cleats funny, snapped some vertabrae and became a parapalegic. Family sued the coach for not having told the players that it was a dangerous play and to be careful and won.
Helmets went from skull caps or cap liners, to one ear flap, to two ear flap. I'm surprised that batters aren't wearing full armor by now.
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Re the great, intimidating fireballer, Bob Gibson...I recall Bob Costas interviewing him 20+ years ago when sluggers like Jose Canseco and Mark McGuire were standing on top of the plate and mashing home runs.
Costas asked Gibson how he'd pitch a guy like Canseco and Gibson said: "First time up, I'd hit him. Second time up, I'd hit him again. Third time up, I wouldn't have to hit him."
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Ron Santo once said that he loved to hit after Ernie Banks, except when facing Gibson. He was always afraid that if Banks hit a home run, Gibson would kill him. He went on to say that on the few occasions Banks hit a homer off of Gibson, Ron felt like stepping into the batters box and just lying down on the ground, just to get it over with.
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Suicide squeeze is getting very rare these days. Trend now in the majors, when manager thinking bunt, is safety squeeze toward the right side. Properly executed, it gets runner in from 3B with some success.
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With the decline in offense and the increase in strike out rates, perhaps it should come back into fashion.
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Not to begin yet another rehash of the designated hitter but I'd guess that rule has given pitchers some immunity towards throwing at hitters. It's a little difficult to lay a bunt down the first baseline and accidentally spike the pitcher as he tries to field it.
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Bob Gibson at one time was Creighton's leading all time scorer in basketball. After he graduated from Creighton he signed with the Harlem Globetrotters. The Cardinals paid him $3,000 and let him play with Globetrotters for 4 months before starting baseball. He has to be the start of the Cardinals pixie dust.
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The start of the Cardinal's pixie dust was the trade for Lou Brock.
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in high school ball you instruct the pitcher to throw at the batter
Really?
Helmets went from skull caps or cap liners, to one ear flap, to two ear flap. I'm surprised that batters aren't wearing full armor by now.
Bonds did.
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Really?
Bonds did.
We were talking about squeeze bunts. MLB players, and many college and high school coaches would instruct the pitcher, when he saw the runner on third base break for the plate, to throw at the batter, under the assumption that he would duck from the pitch and the runner would be caught between third and home. Not done much any more.
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The real key was coaching the kids right so they wouldn't break too soon so the didn't get the batter killed.
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http://www.thecubreporter.com/03272015/2015-cubs-minor-league-spring-training-rosters-updated-327#comments (http://www.thecubreporter.com/03272015/2015-cubs-minor-league-spring-training-rosters-updated-327#comments)
From Friday Az Phil.
For those of you wondering which pitchers are stretched-out as starters at MINOR LEAGUE CAMP (so far):
IOWA: 3
Corey Black
Pierce Johnson
Carlos Pimentel
TENNESSEE: 3
Felix Pena
Ivan Pineyro
Rob Zastryzny
MYRTLE BEACH: 7
Paul Blackburn
Josh Conway
Jonathan Martinez
Tyler Skulina
Jake Stinnett
Daury Torrez
Jen-Ho Tseng
SOUTH BEND: 6
Trevor Clifton
Erick Leal
Zach Hedges
James Norwood
Jeremy Null
Ryan Williams
===========
Notable absent from the list are the following:
1. Edwards
2. Underwood
3. Sands
4. Steele.
IN today's game report, Ryan McNeil threw three shutout innings with 4 K's. Sands and steele each threw an inning each in relief. So I'm guessing they're for Eugene.
Not sure if it means anything. Perhaps Phil has seen guys stretched out, but not sure he sees everything? Maybe there are guys who are stretched out but he hasn't seen?
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Sure good thing that Don Larsen in the World Series didn't realize he needed to be stretched out.
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Perhaps Phil has seen guys stretched out, but not sure he sees everything? Maybe there are guys who are stretched out but he hasn't seen?
Sacrilege. Phil knows all and sees all.
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Seriously, though, last year when I stopped in at extended spring training, Phil was positioned to watch two concurrent games, with binoculars and a thick binder/notebook and would chat with various Cub officials. I suspect he comes as close as any layperson to knowing/seeing all.
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Last night the Cubs and Rangers held their own "Futures Game" with some proceeds going to charity. Arizona Phil at The Cub Reporter: "the best overall performance by a Cub position player was turned-in by 2014 #1 draft pick catcher Kyle Schwarber, who walked in both of his At Bats (both times on 3-2 pitches), and also helped Corey Black get out of jams in two different innings by throwing out Ranger baserunners trying to steal (one at 2nd and one at 3rd).
And the best Cub pitching performance was by #1 pitching prospect C. J. Edwards, who retired all six men he faced (K, L-4, K, 4-3, F-9, K - all strikeouts were swinging)." Torres and ELoy Jimenez each went 1-2, and Torres' hit was a triple. Saw a picture of the Cubs team standing in front of the dugout for the Anthem, and Jimenez towered over his teammates.
Phil's write-up and box score (Vogelbach and Zagunis both K'd twice in their only at bats).
http://www.thecubreporter.com/03312015/future-where-we-are-going-spend-rest-our-lives#comments
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Somebody asked Phil about Jimenez in another post. Here's his reply:
Eloy Jimenez is a man-child beast-menace. He has plus-power, as much power as any 18-year old I have seen.
He runs well for a big guy, gets good jumps on stolen base attempts, and he will not swing at pitches out of the strike zone (although he does swing & miss pitches in the strike zone).
On the negative side, he needs a LOT of work in RF (his defense can be kind of brutal at times), and while he has enough arm to play RF, he had a sore elbow for much of last season, so that's a bit of a "yellow flag" going forward. I would say he probably projects as a 1B down the line.
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Since there isn't a draft thread yet I thought I'd post this here. In his chat today McDaniel reported that he is hearing in the 6-10 could be some big underslots.
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Badler is reporting that the Cubs signed 47 players in the last IFA and spent over $3 million.
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Thanks, Blue. So other than the slot they traded to Atlanta in the LaStella trade, they ended up still spending all the rest of their cap money, then? 3-mill divided by 47 equals $64K per. That's a lot of bodies to fit in their facilities. Hopefully there's a Castro in that crowd.
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They have 15 scouting reports for the Cubs. I don't have access to BA thought. I seems that they signed a lot of $250,000 guys and a bunch of cheaper guys as well.
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They signed at least seven players for $250,000 each and three more for $200,000 each. They also signed three players from Mexico (no bonus amounts shown), and two of them will debut in the Arizona Rookie League this summer. Those two plus the 45 players Arizona Phil listed for the VSL and DSL match the 47 signees Ben Badler reported.
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Do you have any clue about how the Mexican guys are? From my understanding typically only a small portion of the signing bonus goes to the player and the rest goes to team. The portion that goes to the team does not count against the limits. The Cubs could have spent $2-3 million on them and still stayed below the limits.
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The Braves have claimed McKirahan off waivers. Rule 5 draft rules apply.
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They signed at least seven players for $250,000 each and three more for $200,000 each. They also signed three players from Mexico (no bonus amounts shown), and two of them will debut in the Arizona Rookie League this summer. Those two plus the 45 players Arizona Phil listed for the VSL and DSL match the 47 signees Ben Badler reported.
Thanks, Cubsin. It may be interesting to see how the results go. The argument with Latin signings between spending on big-tickets versus spreading same dollars over multiple smaller bites is longstanding. Will be interesting to see whether spreading it around pays off. Not fair comparison, though, since the year before they had both big tickets and volume of them. Still, interesting to see whether this year with all $250-max guys produces any real prospects or not.
I think it's pretty interesting how the previous class, the three biggest tickets (Tseng, Torres, and Eloy) are all looking very well-invested thus far. And Mejia (traded for Montero) some good value too. Galindo also started well. The Columbian kid with the TJ was the only dollar guy who hasn't looked good early. Not like Ricketts let them spend a bunch (Malava, Acosta?, Marcano, etc.) but they all pretty much immediately proved unable to hit even Dominican or Arizona-League pitching.
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Mike Matuella who was going to be a top 5 pick is getting TJS.
Can we get a draft topic as there is going to be more draft news coming.
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Tony Zych is apparently a Mariner now. I don't remember the Cubs cutting him...was there some kind of trade? Or did the Cubs drop him?
Tony Zych @TAZ_Zych
Happy to start my new journey with the @Mariners. Blessed and thankful for the opportunity! Excited for the year to start! #Time2Work
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He's still listed as a Cub. It is April 1.
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Tony Zych @TAZ_Zych · 26m 26 minutes ago
Just want to thank all my teammates, staff, and fans for the last few years in the @Cubs organization.
ony Zych @TAZ_Zych · 21m 21 minutes ago
Happy to start my new journey with the @Mariners. Blessed and thankful for the opportunity! Excited for the year to start! #Time2Work
https://instagram.com/p/08qbhfIssj/
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Hmmm...I wonder if all that happened today. Or maybe he got traded for King Felix! Wooo hoooo!
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Speaking of trades, br, where did you see the Utley to the Yankees? Can't see anything anywhere.
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Maybe a dollar bill out of King Felix's wallet?
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I didn't post the Utley to Yankees thing--I couldn't find anything on it either.
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My bad, it was dev. Sorry, br.
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They signed at least seven players for $250,000 each and three more for $200,000 each. They also signed three players from Mexico (no bonus amounts shown), and two of them will debut in the Arizona Rookie League this summer. Those two plus the 45 players Arizona Phil listed for the VSL and DSL match the 47 signees Ben Badler reported.
Does anyone have access to the details of the article?
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Does anyone have access to the details of the article?
I do. I'll be leaving momentarily, but I'll be home late tonight. I don't want to post the whole article, but I can answer specific questions.
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I do. I'll be leaving momentarily, but I'll be home late tonight. I don't want to post the whole article, but I can answer specific questions.
Specific questions like, "Exactly what does it say?" :-)
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I was wondering if there was a list of the players, or at least a list of the high priced ones.
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The 6 figure signings is the free part.
LHP Wander Cabrera (Dominican Republic), RHP Emilio Ferrebus (Venezuela), SS Yeiler Peguero (Dominican Republic), OF Jose Jules (Dominican Republic), 3B Rafael Mejia (Dominican Republic), SS Fidel Mejia, OF Samir Lara (Dominican Republic), SS Francisco Garay (Panama), LHP Riger Fernandez (Venezuela), OF Yovanny Cuevas (Dominican Republic), SS Rafael Narea (Venezuela), Tony Rijo (Dominican Republic).
The Mexican guys I don't think are listed as it is thought to figure out how much is going to the player vs team.
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Do we have enough to sign Sidd Finch?
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AZ Phil notes some minor league assignments today:
IOWA to TENNESSEE:
OF John Andreoli
LHRP Jeffry Antigua
RHRP Frank Batista
RHSP Corey Black
2B Stephen Bruno
LHRP Hunter Cervenka
INF Ryan Dent
RHSP C. J. Edwards
OF-IF Anthony Giansanti
C Kyle Schwarber
SS Elliot Soto
3B Christian Villanueva
1B Dan Vogelbach
IOWA to MYRTLE BEACH:
C Willson Contreras
TENNESSEE to MYRTLE BEACH:
RHRP Matt Brazis
3B Jeimer Candelario
C Victor Caratini
LHRP Gerardo Concepcion
INF Wes Darvill
OF Jake Hannemann
2B Danny Lockhart
OF Billy McKinney
SS Carlos Penalver
RHRP Starling Peralta
C Victor Caratini
MYRTLE BEACH to SOUTH BEND:
C Gioskar Amaya
OF Jeffrey Baez
OF Yasiel Balaguert
RHP Francisco Carrillo
LHRP Tyler Ihrig
C Justin Marra
OF Trey Martin
RHRP Jasvir Rakkar
RHSP Jake Stinnett
SS Gleyber Torres
INF Jason Vosler
2B Chesny Young
MYRTLE BEACH TO EXTENDED SPRING TRAINING:
OF Kevin Encarnacion
SOUTH BEND to EXTENDED SPRING TRAINING:
C-1B Tyler Alamo
OF Charcer Burks
OF Eloy Jimenez
OF Kevonte Mitchell
C Tyler Pearson
INF Ho-Young Son
INF Tanner Witt
Also, OF Pin-Chieh Chen was moved up from TENNESSEE to IOWA, OF Kevin Brown was moved up from SOUTH BEND to TENNESSEE (INF Tim Saunders is injured and probably will be assigned to EXST for rehab), and C Erick Castillo was moved up from SOUTH BEND to MYRTLE BEACH.
Author: Arizona Phil
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AZ Phil notes some minor league assignments today:
IOWA to TENNESSEE:
1B Dan Vogelbach
Author: Arizona Phil
I'm confused. Vogelbach was assigned to Daytona all of last year. How did that become an Iowa to Tennessee assignment?
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Can someone ask Phil when Zych was released? I never saw it anywhere.
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jes, Phil is talking about work groups in camp. Guys do a lot of spring training work with a higher group, then get sent down to a lower group now. Being two groups up from where you ended last year, and then dropping one group so that you're still higher than you were last year is quite common.
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Thanks, reb. The following are the ones involving significant prospects whose assignments had at one point been ambiguous. In all cases, they go to the lower rather than more aggressive level.
I included Torres, even though confirming his assignment to South Bend is not at all newsworthy. 6 months ago, that wouldn't have been true. It perhaps speaks to his status that him starting in full-A is obvious and unambiguous and boring, even though he only turned 18 less than four months ago.
To our surprise, there had been talk earlier this spring, by Madison himself, that Eloy and perhaps also mitchell might possibly also start in full-season. No such luck, although not surprising. With Jimenez, Mitchell, Sands, and Steele, the XST group will have some names to watch.
IOWA to TENNESSEE:
RHSP C. J. Edwards
TENNESSEE to MYRTLE BEACH:
OF Billy McKinney
MYRTLE BEACH to SOUTH BEND:
RHSP Jake Stinnett
SS Gleyber Torres
SOUTH BEND to EXTENDED SPRING TRAINING:
OF Eloy Jimenez
OF Kevonte Mitchell...
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McKinney back to A+ is the only real surprise. I wonder what their rationale is.
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Cant hate on being able to see Schwarber Vogelbach and Edwards at Tennessee this year.
I wouldnt be stunned if Almora's here too.
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...It perhaps speaks to Torres status that him starting in full-A is obvious and unambiguous and boring, even though he only turned 18 less than four months ago. ..
The same probably applies to Schwarber in AA as a catcher. The week after the draft, who would have assumed he'd be opening this spring in AA as a catcher, and that it would be a no-brainer? When the farm season ended, we might have assumed his bat would be AA ready, but who would have assumed he'd be opening in AA as a catcher, rather than a LFer? That it's a no-brainer now, both bat but also as a catcher, is a really good thing.
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Az Phil noted that Almora injured his knee. Said he was able to limp off the field on his own power.
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I thought that Edwards and Black would be at Iowa. Maybe it's a cold weather, early-season thing for Edwards?
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McKinney back to A+ is the only real surprise. I wonder what their rationale is.
They were (and apparently still are) worried about his defense.
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Hard to imagine that he isn't at least adequate in LF.
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They were (and apparently still are) worried about his defense.
Isn't he supposed to end up as a left fielder? How bad can his defense be?
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I believe there was talk that he'd had a rib injury in camp. One subtle factor may be that in AA games when it's NL vs NL teams, they don't use the DH. Not sure how many NL opponents there are in the Southern League, but if McKinney's perhaps dinged up a bit, they may want him DH'ing rather than running around and diving on his ribs.
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I know that many here are bored to tears about the Bryant/service time discussion, so skip this if you're in that camp.
But, with the actual Bryant assignment to Iowa, lots of stuff in the baseball media about it--once again. Just want to address three points commonly discussed lately.
First, the notion that the Union doesn't even represent Bryant, so why the fuss here. Actually, that's incorrect. Every cba in any field of endeavor has a recognition clause that sets forth who the Union represents. This is the recognition clause in MLB: The Clubs recognize the Association as the sole and exclusive collective bargaining agent for all Major League Players, and individuals who may become Major League Players during the term of this Agreement...(emphasis supplied). Very broad provision there.
Second, some writers point out that Union doesn't bother with the interests of minor leaguers, so why the fuss here. But, no union anywhere gets to decide among itself who they will represent. A Union can only achieve recognition when it demonstrates majority support among those in the bargaining unit. Further, representing all minor leaguers would dwarf the current membership numbers. Players Union would have to expand exponentially for that kind of task and not much in it for the Union for such an undertaking. So, they negotiate for non major leaguers as it affects majors league issues. Makes sense.
Third, will be very surprised if there's an actual grievance and arbitration for Bryant. Very, very likely that any grievance would be a loser for the Union, absent a smoking gun statement by Cubs officials expressly linking the assignment to service time--and Theo and Hoyer have been very careful about what they say. Remotely possible Union could go that route just to set a framework for bargaining about the issue next negotiation for new contract. But, even the super-two arbitration fight decades ago was a product of a work stoppage that was bitter on both sides. Don't see starting a fight this time around for a free agent service time system that has also been around for decades. Is the membership going to push the leadership to fight for the occasional Kris Bryant-type issue? Doubt it.
Finally, I wonder if Bryant actually will be up as soon as some assume--after 12 days or so. Looks bad and actually encourages filing of grievance if the timing of his recall is almost exactly when service time passes. Guessing Cubs will wait longer than some think. Hope to be wrong about that. Let's see him in 13 days after season starts.
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Here is summary on some of the internation signings from CCO
• LHP Wander Cabrera: The 17-year old lefty signed for $250,000 and is 6-foot-1, 185 pounds. Baseball America reported he has good arm strength, a fastball that touches 92 mph, a “solid breaking ball at times for a 17-year old” and he has a changeup. Cabrera needs to work on his mechanics and is “still erratic.”
• RHP Emilio Ferrebus: The 17-year old right-hander signed for $250,000 and is 6-foot-2, 165 pounds. Ferrebus has “late, above average running life on a fastball that touches 93 mph.” Ferrebus has three pitches and projects as a starter. Baseball America thinks his fastball could develop into a plus-pitch, and his breaking ball and changeup “have a chance to be average or a tick better.”
• SS Yeiler Peguero: The Cubs signed the shortstop for $250,000 and he “stands out more for his instincts than raw tools” according to Baseball America. Peguero is 5-foot-10, 155 pounds and is a switch hitter with a line drive approach from both sides. Baseball America explained Peguero “grew up playing a lot of baseball so his game awareness is mature for his age.” Peguero is described as “a gamer with good actions in the middle of the field and an average arm.” Peguero will spend time at second base and shortstop.
• CF Jose Jules: Signed for $250,000, Baseball America indicated Jules is on “the other end of the spectrum from Yeiler Peguero in terms of raw tools versus baseball skills. Jules is 6-foot-2, 170 pounds and has “plus speed, excellent athleticism and projectable raw power potential from the right side.” Jules has “promising tools,” but “the game skills are still crude at this point.”
• 3B Rafael Mejia: The 17-year old third baseman signed for $250,000 in August. Mejia is 6-foot-1, 195 pounds with what Baseball America described as a “strong, physical frame.” There is a chance Mejia hits for power due to the lift in his swing from the right side. Mejia has “solid hands and an above average arm.”
• SS Fidel Mejia: According to Baseball America, Rafael Mejia and Fidel Mejia are not related. The Cubs signed the 16-year old shortstop for $250,000. Mejia is starting to fill out his frame, currently 6-foot, 170 pounds and he has “long arms on a gangly, high wasted frame.” Mejia hits from both sides and his “hands work well at the plate with a loose, fluid swing, especially from the left-side.” Mejia could change positions and is too young to project according to Baseball America, but the tools are there.
• OF Samir Lara: The Cubs signed Lara in December for $250,000. Lara is 18 years old, 6-foot, 165 pounds and hits from the right side. According to Baseball America, Lara “impressed the Cubs with solid tools in his speed, arm strength and raw power.” Lara projects as a right fielder.
• INF Tony Rijo: The Cubs signed Rijo for $100,000. Rijo (6-foot, 170 pounds) hits from the right side, with quick hands “a line drive stroke and gap power.” Rijo’s bat is ahead of his glove. He could play second, third of end up in a corner outfield spot.
• INF Tony Rijo: The Cubs signed Rijo for $100,000. Rijo (6-foot, 170 pounds) hits from the right side, with quick hands “a line drive stroke and gap power.” Rijo’s bat is ahead of his glove. He could play second, third of end up in a corner outfield spot.
• SS Francisco Garay: The Cubs signed the 17-year old switch-hitting shortstop for $200,000. Garay is 6-foot-2, 170 pounds and stands out “for his athleticism and the physical upside in his gangly build.” Good hands at shortstop, strong arm and average speed.
• SS Rafael Narea: Narea (16 years old, right-handed, 5-foot-10, 160 pounds) signed for $150,000 and is a “defensive oriented shortstop with good actions, instincts and gets quick reads off the bat.” His defense is ahead of his offense.
• LHP Riger Fernandez: The Cubs signed the 17-year old southpaw for $200,000. Fernandez “has a sound delivery and arm action” with a fastball that already touches 90 mph with “good tailing action.” Secondary pitches “is still raw” his curveball is ahead of his changeup.
• OF Yovanny Cuevas: The Cubs signed the 16-year old outfielder for $200,000. Cuevas is 6-foot, 170 pounds corner outfielder that “impressed the Cubs with his right-handed bat and occasional power.”
• RHP Hector Garcia: The 16-year old right hander is 5-foot-11, 160 pounds and features a fastball that has touched 92 mph. Garcia has a “feel for a slider and changeup and advanced pitchability for his age.”
• 2B Carlos Sepulveda: Sepulveda is 5-foot-10 and hits from the left side. The 18-year old Sepulveda could make his professional debut in the United States. The Cubs were reportedly impressed with his bat.
• RHP Jesus Camargo: The 18-year old right hander features a fastball that has touched 93 mph on the gun, a changeup that “flashes above average and is ahead of his breaking ball.”
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We signed two dudes named Tony Rijo?
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Who has exactly the same skills, amazing.
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Born the same day, too.
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jes, Phil is talking about work groups in camp. Guys do a lot of spring training work with a higher group, then get sent down to a lower group now. Being two groups up from where you ended last year, and then dropping one group so that you're still higher than you were last year is quite common.
That was what I was thinking might be the case, but was a long way from certain.
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Third, will be very surprised if there's an actual grievance and arbitration for Bryant.
Damn. That is big news. I was just sure a grievance would be filed.
Finally, I wonder if Bryant actually will be up as soon as some assume--after 12 days or so.
Aside from those who have been insisting that the ONLY reason the Cubs will start Bryant at Iowa, no one has been thinking Bryabt wil be called up after 12 days or so. I will be surprised if he is called up before May, and most likely not before near the end of May.
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Blue, thanks for the synopsis on the Cubs internationals. WE'll see how it works. Fifteen $200K guys, who knows if a couple of them won't develop into non-trivial prospects in time, particularly if the coaching is good?
The part that surprised me a little is that I'd kind of figured that they might take more of their projection shots on pitchers. When a pitcher is 16 or 17, who knows how fast they'll be when they project into their 24-year-old frame?
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Could be twins, like the Canseco brothers years ago, or the Van Arsdales in basketball even earlier, though with very unimaginative parents who couldn't decide on a 2nd name.
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reb, I apologize for asking, since I've been a whiner about the incessant service time thing.
But what is the wording in the cba that would make it grievable to acknowledge considering service time?
Team routinely acknowledge the options factor when choosing who to send down and who to keep, don't they? Or is that not true, and they don't actually? Szczur goes down, Sweeney stays, if Hoyer actually mentioned options as the reason could the union then grieve that?
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I think anything outside of a development reason would be a grievance. Does a GM actually say we sent this guy down because he options left? I think it is one of those things that fans/reporters fill in the blanks.
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I think anything outside of a development reason would be a grievance. Does a GM actually say we sent this guy down because he options left?
Yes. Sometimes they do.
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We signed two dudes named Tony Rijo?
At least they both got the same amount in their contracts. It would have been weird to pay one more than he other.
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One of them kisses with his mouth open. Davep told me.
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You are talking about Toni, his twin sister. Probably won't be able to stay at shortstop, since she is currently pregnant.
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reb, I apologize for asking, since I've been a whiner about the incessant service time thing.
But what is the wording in the cba that would make it grievable to acknowledge considering service time?
Team routinely acknowledge the options factor when choosing who to send down and who to keep, don't they? Or is that not true, and they don't actually? Szczur goes down, Sweeney stays, if Hoyer actually mentioned options as the reason could the union then grieve that?
Yes, there are various motives for personnel decisions as to who makes the club. Options, high salary (see Edwin Jackson), low salary, what have you.
Some motives obviously would be impermissible (if you could prove it factually)--race, religion, the pain-in-the-butt club Union player representative who is a thorn to management and would otherwise make the club (that used to happen when there was a bad labor relationship). The power to assign players is not unfettered. If the motive is bad, there's a problem.
Take options. Keeping a guy on the roster who is without options, say Sweeney, doesn't really undermine any understanding between the parties. The purpose of the options rules mostly are to keep guys from being buried forever in the minors. So, if Sweeney stays because of the options rules, it's consistent with the underlying purpose of the rule. Szczur will get same benefit down the road. If Edwin Jackson stays because of his big free agent contract, that doesn't undermine free agency. Jackson gets his money and he gets to stay on club. Hard to see anything in the cba undermined in those situations.
General Rule: Every contract of every kind has an implied covenant of good faith and fair dealing. If you have an employment contract with your college, say, it probably has something about classes you are expected to teach. (Let's assume no union cba). Assume you are expected to teach three classes. But, as it turns out, your college doesn't give you a classroom to teach your classes or minimal facilities. Then, you find yourself disciplined and your pay docked for failing to teach three classes. The implied covenant of good faith requires both parties to the contract to refrain from conduct that unfairly keeps the other from getting the benefits of the contract. More likely than not, your contract doesn't say anything about the college providing you a classroom to teach. It's implied. Failing to provide that undermines the basic bargain you struck.
In the baseball cba, you have the 6-year service time free agency rule. What's the purpose of sending Bryant to Iowa? To evade the 6 year rule. That's the motive. And, that motive is inconsistent with any baseball on-the-field reason. Unlike options or the big contract, it's not consistent with the purpose of the underlying process that the parties negotiated about the subject.
Then, by analogy, there's the Standard Player Contract. Aside from the good character clause, clubs may terminate a player if he "fails, in the opinion of the Club's management to exhibit sufficient skill or competitive ability to qualify or continue as a member of the Club." This is why Theo and everybody in Cubs management insists that there is some baseball-related reason for Bryant to Iowa. Yes, as a practical matter, there are a variety of reasons why players get assigned, but at a certain point you get into bad faith--and relying primarily on a non-performance motive is problematical when it is inconsistent with the rubric that the parties negotiated, with the implied covenant of good faith.
Of course, this kind of stuff has gone on for years. Every industry has its peculiar ways of doing things. Perhaps Bryant is the quintessential service time case because it's so blatant---he's that good and it's well known. Everybody has a reason: Theo is smart for doing this; Bryant is disappointed because he flat out knows he deserves to be on the club (as do his teammates); Boras has good reason to pound the table.
Don't think we'll see a meritorious grievance because an arbitrator will be loathe to second guess an assignment based on probabilities of performance. Probably need something more that establishes, as a factual matter, the improper service-related reason, such as a club statement that shows the bad moitve. More than inherent probability given the wide latitude clubs need to have for player assignments. Last thing anybody wants is a bunch of these cases every year that are less compelling than Bryant's credentials. Slippery slope. Imagine if you had 20 cases a year with someone having a beef about this. Nobody wants that.
Final thing. We don't really know if the parties have discussed a Bryant-type scenario in previous cba negotiations. Labor lawyers argue frequently about waivers of bargaining rights based on what is discussed or not discussed previously: waivers by inaction, waiver by implied acquiescence, other types of waivers. That would be very relevant if they litigate this thing. Somebody has bargaining notes that go back decades.
Long answer. Sorry. Time for some actual baseball.
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Reb - So the moral of the story is? Be careful for what you ask for because you might get it?
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Thanks reb.
http://www.thecubreporter.com/author/arizona-phil
1. Az Phil said that Almora was a full participant yesterday.
2. Said Denorfia batted 3 times a day or two back. Hit a double and didn't seem to be running full-speed, but then did seem to be running full speed scoring from second on a single.
3. Also reported Underwood going 5 innings, he hadn't previously seen him go long. That's as deep as anybody pitches at this point in minors, so he's evidently as thoroughly stretched out as anybody else, no issues there.
Phil also had a listing of the rosters as of Friday. Each team is a couple of guys over the limit, so some cuts and moves up or down to go. But you get a pretty clear definition of where the main players are.
Pierce Johnson seems like the only pitcher of note at Iowa, other than relievers Rosscup and Rivero.
Myrtle Beach could be pretty loaded, in terms of win-loss power. Not sure guys like McKinney, Henneman, Zagunis, Candelario, Caratini, Penalver, Contreras are any of them going to be big-ticket prospects. (Although perhaps one or more will, too.) But that's a pretty long group of guys who are either reasonable prospects or experienced enough to be reasonably minor-league capable.
The pitching with Tseng, Underwood, Blackburn, Torrez, Martinez, Skulina, Conway, Paniagua, Brazis also seems really long and deep.
Wouldn't be surprised if they run away from their league.
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With seven promising starters on the staff, Myrtle Beach should have one of the better pitching staffs in the league. Perhaps no top 5 prospects, but probably mostly top 15 prospects in a powerhouse farm system. And in a league where piggyback starters are not used very often, it will be interesting see what the Cubs choose to do in the unlikely event that all seven perform well. They already have Paniagua and Brazis (lesser prospects but still with promise) in the pen.
Offense is more problematic, at least on paper, with perhaps McKinney as the top offensive prospect there, but there seem to be few automatic outs other than Penalver.
McKinney was the only surprising assignment to Myrtle Beach. Perhaps the Front Office wanted to add a little offensive production for the first year of a new addition to their system.
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Zagunis should be really good at high A. He doesn't K, he walks a lot, he's a college guy so older than many in that league. I'd be shocked if he doesn't stand out at that level, at least in his ability to get on base at a super high rate (AA/AAA are where he'll actually be challenged)
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I agree. I suspect that Craig is right, in that a few will end up standing out from the others, but it is a crap shoot to determine which ones at this point.
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Don't think we'll see a meritorious grievance because an arbitrator will be loathe to second guess an assignment based on probabilities of performance.
We won't see one involving Bryant because there is no meritorious grievance to be made.
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Zagunis should be really good at high A. He doesn't K, he walks a lot, he's a college guy so older than many in that league. I'd be shocked if he doesn't stand out at that level, at least in his ability to get on base at a super high rate (AA/AAA are where he'll actually be challenged)
I hope you're right there. But Zagunis only played 14 games (plus playoffs) in low-A last year. Given small sample of success then, that he was in a groove then, and that is a new season and another step up, it wouldn't be too shocking if it isn't so easy for him. Hopefully it is easy for him, and he comes out hitting and getting on base and never quits.
My caution is that sometimes there isn't great carryover from August of one year to April of the next. Ryne Sandberg, Brian Dopirak, Javy Baez can all tell that story.
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Zagunis walked more than he K'd in college too, as I recall. It seems to be who he is.
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My caution is that sometimes there isn't great carryover from August of one year to April of the next.
I think a case can be made that Baez performance in August pretty much carried over to April of the next year.
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Happy Easter, Davep and Craig!
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And to you, Curt.
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Happy Easter. He is risen indeed!
Fitting to have the resurrection, new life, and new hope of Easter synced with a new season and new hopes starting for the Cubs.
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Craig, did you see my note in Other Sports?
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No, I'll check.
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Pierce Johnson isn't listed on the AA roster. In an article the I-Cubs wrote he isn't mentioned as one of the 5 starters there either. Is he hurt?
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ArizonaPhil says that Pierce Johnson has been left behind in extended spring training, and is inactive with an unknown injury.
And so it starts.
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According to Muskat, opening day starter for Iowa will be Donn Roach. Yippee.
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http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs/cubs-being-cautious-pitching-prospect-pierce-johnson
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Thanks, P2. Glad it's not an arm injury.
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Scott Frazier has really improved this spring. He actually finished his inning, and only walked two.
OK, he did make a wild throw to first base for an error, but at least it wasn't called a ball.
On a more serious note, control pitcher Carson Sands threw 16 pitches, only 6 strikes.
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Scott Frazier has really improved this spring. He actually finished his inning, and only walked two. OK, he did make a wild throw to first base for an error, but at least it wasn't called a ball. On a more serious note, control pitcher Carson Sands threw 16 pitches, only 6 strikes.
AZ Phil also mentioned in his blog that catcher Will Remillard recently had TJS and will miss the entire 2015 season.
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Clifton started for South Bend today against Notre Dame and did really well to start the game.
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Edwards is going to be in the pen at AA to at least start the season.
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Ill go check them out soon.
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Not everybody on board with Addison Russell as Cubs future SS.
Chat today:
Comment From joe
when will addison russell come up? Will it take a Starlin trade or will he move to third or second?
Kiley McDaniel: When he’s ready and needed. I think Castro might be a better defender than Russell, so you might have it backwards.
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We'll see, but if Russell is a good fundamental defender, he's better than Castro.
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Baez is probably the best defensive shortstop of the three.
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Russell, Baez and Castro are all better than Jeter.
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Not everybody on board with Addison Russell as Cubs future SS.
Chat today:
Comment From joe
when will addison russell come up? Will it take a Starlin trade or will he move to third or second?
Kiley McDaniel: When he’s ready and needed. I think Castro might be a better defender than Russell, so you might have it backwards.
That's surprising. Who is Kiley McDaniel and should anyone take him seriously?
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I believe he's Mrs. McDaniel's husband, the mother of Davep's paperboy. Not sure though.
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He worked for the Pirates, Orioles and Yankees. He is currently the prospect writer for Fangraphs. In the past he's worked for BP and Scout. Since Parks left to go work the Cubs he's my favorite prospect guy and his stuff is free on Fangraphs.
Despite what people think Castro isn't a low bar to clear for SS defense. To be better on defense it is going to take an above average defender.
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South Bend beat Notre Dame in a tune-up game Tuesday. Trevor Clifton fanned 9 in 4-2/3.
http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150407&content_id=116870860&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_t550&sid=t550
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Despite what people think Castro isn't a low bar to clear for SS defense. To be better on defense it is going to take an above average defender.
Not to say Castro is a bad defender, but how good he is is probably at least open to some debate. I was looking at what ESPN has for his dWAR, for instance, and the past two seasons, he's been at -0.2 dWAR.
I can't imagine -0.2 dWAR is a particularly high bar to climb.
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And even if you're into UZR (which I'm not), it also has Castro as a below average defender for his career.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4579&position=SS
I'm actually surprised the guy at Fangraphs would say Castro might be a better defender than Russell, unless he's not all that high on Russell's defense.
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McDaniel had a quite detailed Cubs prospects report last fall. He had some scout(s) suggest that there was something about Russell's arm action at short that wasn't right. The report also suggested that he didn't have the quick-twitch of many top middle infielders, and suggested that 3B might be a better defensive fallback than 2B. (I recall being a little puzzled, because to some degree I thought a hard shot to 3rd might require more quick-twitch than a ball to 2B.) The thinking was also that if he moved to 3rd, he might not need to be as concerned about keeping his weight down, and it might actually be conducive for the broad-shouldered Russell hitting more HR's.
I have no idea, obviously. But the general views have seemed to present Russell as a guy who has good hands and plays a smart, polished, instinctive version of SS. But I don't recall the typical picture being as a guy who stands out for either his arm, or his speed or quickness or range.
We'll see.
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Not to say Castro is a bad defender, but how good he is is probably at least open to some debate. I was looking at what ESPN has for his dWAR, for instance, and the past two seasons, he's been at -0.2 dWAR. ....I can't imagine -0.2 dWAR is a particularly high bar to climb.
The standard for big-league SS defense is very, very high. It might be argued that if Castro is basically average, that average isn't an amazingly high bar to climb; yet beating big-league average at SS really is a pretty high bar, in a way.
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The standard for big-league SS defense is very, very high. It might be argued that if Castro is basically average, that average isn't an amazingly high bar to climb; yet beating big-league average at SS really is a pretty high bar, in a way.
It is, but considering the hype Russell has, I hope he'd turn out to be better defensively than a tick below average shortstop like Castro is, according to some metrics.
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Some baseball people have reportedly considered Russell to be an even better prospect than Bryant, or at least close to him. He is, after all, in the top 3 or 5 top prospects in all of baseball. Hard to imagine him being rated that highly if he isn't considered to be better defensively than Castro.
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not sure that I agree with that Ron. A Castro-level (or touch below) defender, who as an offensive player has more plate discipline and power than Castro, and a similar hit tool, is clearly a super-elite top-5 guy.
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My wife and I have an understanding that anytime I give an opinion on anything whatsoever, there is an automatic (if unstated) caveat: "but I could be wrong." That is especially true in areas in which I have no genuine expertise - such as evaluating professional baseball players.
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If you have ten scouts, I'm sure you get a range of ideas. We'll see. Seems their is pretty wide-spread respect for Russell's chances as a defensive SS. But that's no guarantee, and having one guy question that hardly seems astonishing.
Normally there is something of a tenure system. You don't normally move an established starter off of his existing position if it's a lateral move; normally you'd need to expect the replacing player to be superior in order to shift the tenured guy.
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And even if you're into UZR (which I'm not), it also has Castro as a below average defender for his career.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4579&position=SS
-0.2 dWAR is average SS. When you add in the positional adjust for SS on fangraphs he is 2 runs above average and would rank 13/22 in qualified SS in defense. He's basically an average SS even with his boneheaded plays. An average defensive SS isn't an easy bar to clear.
Edit: To further explain the dWAR comment, WAR in any form isn't powerful enough to make a determination on a small difference. A 2.5, 2.7, 3 WAR player are essentially at the same talent level. WAR needs closer to 1 WAR difference before you start noticing the difference in talent or results.
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Personally I don't envision the "glut" to be a problem.
If Bryant works out at 3rd, and you end up trading somebody, to me Baez seems the obvious one. He's the most inconsistent, he'll be the least likely to be established and least likely to be "safe" if the time comes. The Cubs may be emerging as a regular contender, and might be better off with the safe and predictable good-value good-hitter Castro rather than trading Castro for the chance to roll the dice on an uncertain and probably always hot-and-cold Baez.
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If Bryant sticks at third. Say Baez is a .240 hitter with 25-30 HR. That would be enough to make him a useful LF.
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If Bryant sticks at third. Say Baez is a .240 hitter with 25-30 HR. That would be enough to make him a useful LF.
Given his abilities as a middle infielder, I'd be shocked if Baez is moved to the outfield.
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Haven't seen this mentioned here yet but CJ Edwards will be in the bullpen to start the season. The Cubs in the same announcement also said they have no questions about his durability. It seems that statement and the move are counter-intuitive. Perhaps he will be on an innings limit and they would like to save innings for a possible need at Wrigley later in the season? Other than that I find this move interesting and a little disappointing.
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Edwards is going to be in the pen at AA to at least start the season.
Nice to see I made somebodies ignore list.
I've seen it mentioned that with his limited innings last year, he'll be on an innings limit this year. This would be a way to keep him going all year and maybe even make him a call up option later in the year. It could also mean they think he's a reliever and are just getting it started.
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But the general views have seemed to present Russell as a guy who has good hands and plays a smart, polished, instinctive version of SS. But I don't recall the typical picture being as a guy who stands out for either his arm, or his speed or quickness or range.
The comp I've usually seen is Barry Larkin. Seems to fit with that description. I'll take that over a guy who's maybe a bit more athletic with a bit better range but has a significant brain cramp every other game.
I'm with Jeff in that Baez looks to be the best defensive shortstop of the three, but I'm guessing that Russell will be the guy.
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What's Bluejay rambling on about now? I ignore that guy's posts. ;)
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C.J. won't help the 2015 Cubs as a starting pitcher because of his innings limit. He might, however, help the Cubs as a relief pitcher this season. He could move to the rotation in 2016 or 2017 if he can stay healthy and build up his innings. If Pierce Johnson can avoid further injuries, he might get some late-season starts for the Cubs this year.
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Not to say Castro is a bad defender, but how good he is is probably at least open to some debate. I was looking at what ESPN has for his dWAR, for instance, and the past two seasons, he's been at -0.2 dWAR.
I can't imagine -0.2 dWAR is a particularly high bar to climb.
Assuming the ESPN dWAR has any real validity.
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Sad news about Baez's sister:
Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs
Condolences to Javy Baez and family. Lost his sister last night. They were very close. Cubs ask for privacy for family
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Baez is going on leave so he won't be playing for a bit.
Edit: Here is an article from December about his sister
http://m.cubs.mlb.com/news/article/66112700/
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Underwood stats
Player IP H R ER BB SO
Duane Underwood Jr. 5.0 4 1 0 2 5
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Jake Stinnett
Player IP H R ER BB SO
Jake Stinnett 5.0 3 1 1 2 4
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I never spoke to Javy's sister but I have met his father and the sister was beside of him in a wheelchair.
She had Javy's cleats.
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Torres: 0-3, 2 K
Stinnett: 5-3-1-1-2-4
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_09_bgrafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Hannemann: 3-5, RBI
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_09_wilafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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John Arguello @CubsDen 39m39 minutes ago Phoenix, AZ
Almora walks and Kyle Schwarber triples him home.
John Arguello @CubsDen 41m41 minutes ago Phoenix, AZ
Almora draws a 4 pitch walk.
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Bryant: 1-4, RBI, SB, K
Russell: 2-4, RBI, E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_09_iowaaa_mrbaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Almora: 1-4, BB, K
Schwarber: 1-3, 3B, RBI, 2 BB, K
Edwards: 2-1/3 -2-1-1-2-2
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_09_tenaax_msbaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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I never spoke to Javy's sister but I have met his father and the sister was beside of him in a wheelchair.
http://m.cubs.mlb.com/news/article/66112700/
The three boys credit their love of the game to their late father, Angel Luis Baez. He died when Javier was 10 years old.
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So Dusty sees dead people. No harm in that.
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Could be a stepfather.
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It might not have been his dad then.
Dude was driving an Escalade truck that Javy got in and had his sister with him too.
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I normally don't read Morrisey's stuff but sometimes you click on an article without knowing who wrote it
Noely Baez, the 21-year-old sister of Cubs’ prospect Javy Baez, died Wednesday night. Here’s the column I wrote last August on the special bond between the two:
http://chicago.suntimes.com/baseball/7/71/513156/javy-baez-love-sister-will-never-end (http://chicago.suntimes.com/baseball/7/71/513156/javy-baez-love-sister-will-never-end)
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After one game Schwarber is not in the Smokies' lineup.
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It's the second inning of Tennessee's second game, and Almora has matched his walk total from his 36 games at Tennessee last year.
After allowing a bunt single to open the game, Jeremy Null has allowed one more ground single through four. Six K's. He was a low-walks guy in college, too.
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Null sounds like a steal. His velocity jumped after drafting him.
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What do you have for velocity on him, Blue? I thought he was your garden-variety touches 94-95 but works 90-91 average-velocity righty?
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That sounds about right. He's a big guy, with good downward plane, and movement on his fastball. The slider and change are supposed to be good as well. In college he had a back issue and was throwing sub-90. If he has good command that sounds like a ground ball machine that can miss bats. Those guys are fun.
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Bryant: 0-4, 2 K
Russell: 1-4, 2B, E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_10_iowaaa_mrbaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Hannemann: 2-5, 2B, 2 K
Torrez: 4-2/3 IP, 6 ER, 2 HR
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_10_wilafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 0-4, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_10_bgrafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Almora: 0-4, BB, RBI
Vogelbach: 1-3, 2 BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_10_tenaax_msbaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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After one game Schwarber is not in the Smokies' lineup.
Maybe he's being called up? We need 4 catchers.
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Schwarber hit a HR out of the stadium in Mississippi.
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ChicagoCubsOnline retweeted
Mick Gillispie @BroadcasterMick 40m40 minutes ago
Wow! @kschwarb12 just hit a blast out of the stadium to right in Mississippi. His first @SLeagueBaseball Homerun! 2-0 @smokiesbaseball 4th
ChicagoCubsOnline retweeted
Smokies on Radio @SmokiesonRadio 29m29 minutes ago
SCHWARBER DOES IT AGAIN! A strike 'em out, throw 'em out double play ends the inning! 2-0, Smokies after 4. #TNSvsMIS
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Cant beat it.
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Bryant pissed at people doubting after 2 games. Hits his first HR.
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Finally, Bryant with a home run. It was beginning to look like a lost season for him.
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Schwarber: 2-4, HR, RBI, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_11_tenaax_msbaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Bryant: 3-4, 2B, HR, SF, 3 RBI, BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_11_iowaaa_mrbaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Terrific learning experience for Bryant tonight facing Zack Petrick, Tyler Waldron, and Boone Whiting.
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Terrific learning experience for Bryant tonight facing Zack Petrick, Tyler Waldron, and Boone Whiting.
Actually that should give him plenty of opportunities to get on base, and therefore give him plenty of opportunities to improve his baserunning.
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Torres: 3-4, 2B, BB, K
Je Baez: 2-4, 2 2B, BB, Assist
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_11_bgrafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Blackburn: 5-4-1-1-1-6
Paniagua: 3-0-0-0-0-6
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_11_wilafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Ryan McNeil had a good game for SB as well. Coming off TJS a few years ago.
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A Paniagua with no walks could be an effective pitcher.
In the South Bend game, Ryan McNeil K'd 5 in 3 innings. 2nd pick of the 3rd round, so had some potential, so-so his rookie summer, then supposedly was looking very impressive the following XST until he blew his arm and had surgery in 2013. Walked 10 guys in hs 16 rehab innings last year at Boise, not effective.
So him getting promoted to full-A already was surprising; to be whiffing a bunch of guys is interesting. Or, what Blue just posted.
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http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=69678383&topic_id=&sid=milb&v=3&tcid=tw_video_
Schwarber's HR. He hit it hard.
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Too short to be a catcher.
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Bryant's homer:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=69842883&topic_id=18601616&c_id=&sid=milb
Nice play by Russell:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=69816883&topic_id=18601616&c_id=&sid=milb
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http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=69678383&topic_id=&sid=milb&v=3&tcid=tw_video_
Schwarber's HR. He hit it hard.
I was there and there is a restaurant there and he hit the top of it. It went a long way...however the team did play soccer for a while and made like 5 errors and looked bad doing it.
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Cubs Den had Blackburn high 80's low 90's. Conway who pitched yesterday and is another TJS guy from 2012 topped out at 92.
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First homer of the year for Russell today.
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Almora with another walk and went 2-3.
Cubs Den tweeted that Barret Loux was consistently hitting 93 for Iowa.
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Bryant homers again.
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Bryant just hit a laser over the 373 sign in RCF...
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Russell's was a bomb into the Redbirds bullpen...
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Took him 4 at bats to do it.
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And yeah, Loux hit 94 several times...
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Bryant up in the 9th, bases loaded, 0 out
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Just missed , mile high fly out to LF...RBI
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Valaika just missed one as well...
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Almora: 2-5, 2b, BB, K
Vogelbach: 3-5, 2 2B, 2 RBI, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_12_tenaax_msbaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Russell: 3-5, HR, 2 RBI
Bryant: 1-4, SF, HR, 3 RBI, K
Rosscup: 1-0-0-0-1-3
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_12_iowaaa_mrbaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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In two innings, Rosscup has totaled 5 K's. Based on spring training and early season, he seems to be healthy.
Rivero hasn't K'd anybody in his two appearances.
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Two observations, one from today's game, and one based on today, this weekend, and pretty much everything else so far...
1) today, in Bryant's 2nd and 3rd AB's, he K'd swinging, both times on good fastballs. My son looked at me after the second swinging K and remarked "he's pulling off the ball, big time...". His 4th AB, he punched a long fly ball foul down the RF line, and my son said "he's adjusting...fixing his swing and his approach mid-AB". Sure enough, next pitch, he smoked a laser over the wall in RCF. Unlike most of his shots, this was a low line drive...probably would have gone thru the wall if it hadn't cleared it.
2) remember Billy Beane telling Theo "congratulations, you just traded for Barry Larkin"? I'm not one for hyperbole, but I'm telling you all now...Russell's gonna be better. I'm struggling to think of a comp...think peak Jimmy Rollins with more power...
I hope Castro can play 2B.
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Torres: 2-4, RBI, BB, SB, E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_12_souafx_dayafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Myrtle Beach has no offense whatsoever.
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_12_wilafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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I don't think Russell's game is built around speed anywhere near as much as Larkin and Rollins' were, but he's exciting nonetheless.
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I don't think he'll ever steal 40 in a season, but I could easily see 20-25 over a 162 game season.
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Vogelbach: 3-5, 2 2B, 2 RBI, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_12_tenaax_msbaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
I believe Vogelbach started out quite slowly in each of the last two seasons. This season he is hitting .400 with 2 doubles, 3 walks and only 2 K's is 18 PA: .400/.500/.533/1.033. Small sample size to be sure, but it would be very nice to see him put together a nice, strong season in AA and regain not only prospect status but to revive questions of how to get him in the lineup.
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One of the things I read in the off-season was a piece about Castro at second base. It was relating that Sandberg and someone else both thought that Castro is a natural second baseman. I'd be fine with Castro at second if they don't get the kind of trade return they want.
Was just telling my son about that Beane quote today. Really looking forward to Russell.
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I have heard reports that Castro would make a better second baseman than a shortstop. In actual fact, I think that almost anyone that can play shortstop can also play second base, and probably third base and any outfield position.
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Thanks for game observations, Dave, and enthusiasm for how polished and complete Russell looks. Each player is different, so of course the Larkin analogy won't be perfect. Larkin provides a nice analog as guy who was just a very complete, well-rounded player, good at everything. He wasn't a HR champ or a batting champ or Ozzie Smith defensively or Ricky Henderson base stealer, but he was just really good at pretty much every phase.
I think Russell may hit with more consistent HR power than Larkin. Larkin had only 4 years with >12 HR's, and only once hit more than 20. (Oddly one year he hit 33...) Russell is a broad-shouldered guy who looks like he might end up hitting quite a few HR's.
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Russell's homer:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=71514483&topic_id=18630668&c_id=&sid=milb
Bryant's homer:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=71514483&topic_id=18630668&c_id=&sid=milb
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Almora: 2-6, 2B, RBI, Assist
Schwarber: 1-4, BB, PB
Vogelbach: 2-3, 2 2B, 2 BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_13_tenaax_msbaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Vogelbach is hot. Four doubles already. Not many grounders for him thus far, nice.
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Rizzo feeling pressure? Trying too hard? JK
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Vogelbach is hot. Four doubles already. Not many grounders for him thus far, nice.
.444/.565/.667/1.232 GB/FO -- 0.33 2K's in 23 PA
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Rizzo feeling pressure? Trying too hard? JK
Yeah, if he can go 0-3 tonight, Rizzo will be where he was last season.
2 for 17 to open last season. 2 for 14 so far this season.
A bit early to worry much.
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Well, Rizzo has hit Mike Leake at a .350/.409/.600 clip, so he's facing the right guy tonight to break out of this early season funk.
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According to AZ Phil, OF Jae-Hoon Ha is being converted to a RHP.
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Took Myrtle Beach till game five to get rained out. Is that an improvement over Daytona?
Also, Bryant's made his first error on a throw.
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Clifton walks four in the first, and his full-season debut is done.
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Bryant: 3-5, K, SB, 2 E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_13_iowaaa_nozaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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All lousy little singles. He has a lot of work to do offensively.
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South Bend:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_13_souafx_dayafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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From http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/fantasy-roto-arcade/farm-report--enjoy-kris-bryant-while-you-can--des-moines-120736245.html
"Addison Russell, Bryant's Iowa teammate, has been raking as well, carrying his excellent spring performance (.317/.349/.488) into the regular season. Russell is currently 7-for-22 with five runs scored, one homer and zero strikeouts. Whenever the Bryant Watch ends, Russell Watch begins. The shortstop seems more likely to be a mid/late-summer add for Chicago, however, assuming he isn't a trade chip."
Two interesting things there. First, it's really impressive that Russell has no Ks in 22 ABs. Second, "trade chip"? Are you kidding me?
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Well if Mike Trout is on the market...
McDaniel is coming out with his second IFA article tomorrow, it should clear up if the Cubs are going to go over.
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you do realize it sounds just nutty to think you'd get trout for even 3 addison russell's and 2 Bryants right?
Trout is still younger then bryant and has already accumulated 30 WAR in his baseball career.
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I don't even want to think what the cost would be for Trout. Rizzo, Castro, Bryant and Russell? Maybe gets you in the ball park.
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Pass...
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I dont think they would take on salary... rizzo is cheap but still lot of commitment to him.
They would want Russel/Bryant/Buxton/Sano.
Prospects are just prospects... no guarantee they will take the next big step at the next level, regardless of their talent level.
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I don't think the Angels would trade or if they did a team would meet their price.
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1st game of DH:
Tseng: 5-4-2-2-0-5
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_14_salafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Iowa rained out, Tennessee idle.
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Iowa rained out,
Another wasted day goes by where Bryant doesn't get a chance to work on his baserunning.
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Torres: 2-3, RBI, SB, CS
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_14_souafx_dayafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Zagunis: 2-3, 2B
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_14_salafa_myrafa_2&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Chris, you've got a Youtube video posted instead of the box score link.
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Zagunis plays basketball?
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Maybe some of those chicks can hit the curve.
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As usual, I have no idea what JR's talking about. 😉
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Piece on Schwarber:
http://www.knoxnews.com/sports/all-eyes-focused-on-smokies-catcher-kyle-schwarber_70382444
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Russell: 1-5, 2 K
Bryant: 0-3, BB, 2 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_15_iowaaa_nozaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Smokies rained out.
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Here is McDaniel's part 1 piece
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-international-signing-market-part-1/
It appears the Cubs may still be going over. The lost deals with Heredia (Dodgers $3 million) and Gilberto Celestino (Houston $2 million).
2 guys in this article are mentioned.
Aramis Ademan, SS, Dominican Video: Ademan has been tied to the Cubs for awhile, with a rumored $2 million price. He’s only 5’10/150, but he has slick hands and should be able to stick at shortstop, with advanced feel for contact and a smooth cut from the left side.
Christopher Martinez, 3B, Dominican Video: Martinez is believed to be another of many Cubs targets, with rumors he has a deal for $1.5 million. He has solid average raw power and arm strength along with the hands to play in the infield, though his feet are a little slow at this point.
I believe the Cubs could spend close to $5 million if the trade for more money, so it is possible I guess they don't go over. Alvarez has a deal with the Dodgers for around $16 million. Without getting the top guys this year I wish they would wait to go over for next year when that class seems to have more top end talent.
Edit: Team plans will come out tomorrow. In a tweet about the Cubs going over a former Fangraphs employee who now works for ESPN responded Lucius Fox. He is an 18 year old who lived in America, but was born in the Bahamas. He recently moved back to Bahama to become a IFA. MLB is ruling on if he should be in the draft or IFA. If he's in the draft he would be a top 50 prospect.
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In a tweet about the Cubs going over a former Fangraphs employee who now works for ESPN responded Lucius Fox.
Is Batman part of the deal?
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Now that I think about it, that's too close to Bartman. Forget it.
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Bryant has 8K/25 AB. Reb jokes about Bryant's base running. But perhaps he still has learning left about hitting, too.
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I heard he hit second base with the wrong foot the other night on his home run trot. Not acceptable.
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Right. He should be sprinting.
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Stinnett with 7 walks, a wild pitch, and a hit batter so far in 2 plus.
And Myrtle Beach has been rained out again. Moving out of Daytona is paying real dividends.
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Stinnett with 7 walks, a wild pitch, and a hit batter so far in 2 plus.
Yikes, wasn't he supposed to be our big sleeper pitching prospect this year?
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Yep. He seems to be pretty well washed up.
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Not quite David Ross level washed up though.
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Torres: 1-5, RBI, K
Stinnett: 2-1/3 -3-8-5-7-2
http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/college/kentuckiana/2015/04/13/wku-basketball-coach-who-is-geno-auriemma/25723933/
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http://m.mlb.com/news/article/118486902/phil-rogers-cubs-used-team-approach-to-draft-kris-bryant (http://m.mlb.com/news/article/118486902/phil-rogers-cubs-used-team-approach-to-draft-kris-bryant)
Article on Cubs drafting of Kris Bryant. Interesting parts were that by Sam Hughes account, Bryant was even or behind Clint Frazier and Austin Meadows early in the spring. (Meadows is doing VERY well, by the way) Hughes says the debate among Bryant, Gray, and Appel lasted way to the end.
Phil Rogers says McLeod gives a somewhat different story. Rogers: "Some people claim the Cubs would have taken Appel if the Astros had selected Gray, leaving both Bryant and Appel on the board. McLeod said it's not true, that Appel was a consideration at No. 2 only if Bryant had been off the board." (Although Rogers doesn't actually include a quote quite to that effect, and the quote that he does include doesn't really have McLeod saying that.)
I wonder if this might not have been a deal where there were lots of opinions in the room, right to the end, and they have a lot of smart guys talking and expressing their opinions. But perhaps McLeod had the final say, and perhaps he knew in his mind that he had Bryant first even when the talk everybody else was hearing didn't make that so clear?
Not sure how it's going to go, but Gray may not be looking that great. He's gotten off to a slow start, and of course the Cubs themselves killed him in a spring training game. Appel had his problems last year, but finished pretty strong, and had a good first start in AA. Will be interesting to see how all of these guys turn out.
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Gray is pitching in Albuquerque, I wouldn't put much into his stats there. Appel is repeating AA and while is first start looked good, he only K'd 4 in 5 innings. I think I've come around that if a pitcher and hitter are close enough in your ratings you should go with the hitter every time. This draft I'm not sure if there is any hitting talent worth the #9 pick that will still be there, so it might make more sense to grab a high end ceiling pitcher instead.
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Agree, Blue. This year might be a good time to take a shot at a promising HS pitcher. Or not, who knows.
On Gray, two years ago I thought he might be a stud, and finishing the summer dominant in the high-scoring Cal league supported that. But, last year in AA, his numbers were fine but nothing awesome. 2.7:1 K/BB, 1.2 WHIP, 8K/9IP, nothing Cy-Youngish there, either. Back when we were having the Appel/Gray draft spring, I thought it was very plausible that a big-time college pitcher drafted in the top 3, if things worked right and he really was enroute to ace-hood, could well be in the majors within 15 months, and could well be a main piece right out of camp two years later. Not so for Gray.
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Here is McDaniels on the Cubs IFA plans. It sounds like right now they are going to spend $7 million on big name guys. The can spend $5 million without the 2 year penalty.
Cubs: The Cubs have been tied to the most players during this process and are believed to have agreements with a number of players that should easily send them over their bonus pool. Sources have indicated that these are the deals the Cubs have in place:
1. Aramis Ademan, SS, Dominican, $2 million Video: He’s only 5’10/150, but he has slick hands and should be able to stick at shortstop, with advanced feel for contact and a smooth cut from the left side.
2. Christopher Martinez, 3B, Dominican, $1.5 million Video: He has solid average raw power and arm strength along with above average bat speed and some looseness at the plate. He also has the hands to play in the infield, though his feet are a little slow at this point.
3. Yonathan Perlaza, SS, Venezuelan, $1.2 million Video: Stout 5’8/175 infielder has a chance to stick at shortstop and is an average runner with below average power, but has a smooth cut that produces among the most hard contact in games in this class.
4. Miguel Amaya, C, Panama, $1.2 million: 6’0/160 lefty hitter has an advanced swing, some pop and the tools to catch, but still needs some work defensively
5. Anderson Amarista, RHP, Venezuela, $1 million Video: 6’0/178 righty sat 85-87 mph when I saw him in February, but has projection and a clean arm, normally sits a few ticks higher, has hit 91 mph and already flashes a solid average curveball
6. Yunior Perez, RHP, Dominican: $650,000: 6’3/175 righty is loose, has a clean arm, projection and sat 90-93 mph when I saw him for a few innings in February. That said, the curveball is below average and I haven’t seen him throw a changeup at all, so he’s still in the early stages.
7. Luis Diaz, SS, Dominican: $350,000: 5’9/155 infielder is a plus runner with a chance to stick at shortstop and below average power, but good feel to hit from the right side.
As I mentioned yesterday, these numbers may be a bit different than the final bonuses and things can still happen, like deals falling apart late for various reasons. I heard about Martinez and Amarista pretty recently and heard the other five players over a month ago. These numbers add up to $7.9 million and the Cubs pool is a little over $3.2 million, meaning they can make trades to boost their pool to just under $5 million, so it appears they are set to go over this year. Scouts think Perez and Diaz, who have the same trainer (Franklin Ferriera), are both signed at nice values while the others are somewhere close to market value.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-international-signing-market-part-2/
I'd rather lose a couple of the million dollar guys and not go over, but the Cubs FO sadly isn't calling me for advice.
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I don't know what the financials look like, but if the Cubs really were in on the Moncada bidding, these numbers are disappointing, given the premium talent apparently available next year. Either go over bigger this year, or stay in budget. But what do I know?
Perhaps the potential for an international draft is also changing the Cubs' calculus on the matter?
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The international draft can't come until at least 2017.
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It may also be that there are and will continue to be other deals that McDaniel doesn't know about. So, he's heard about $7 worth of deals, but $2.5 of them he just heard about only days ago. Perhaps he'll hear about another $2.5 within the next few days, and another $2.5 within a week after that?
Last time, the "names" that were linked to Cubs at this time were Torres and Jiminez, and one or both of Moreno/Mejia? But then they ended of getting Tseng and Galindo besides, and some others.
I guess I'm just reasoning that Kiley thinking he knows about $7M now in April, with that being disappointing, may not mean they don't end up spending $15 (plus tax) before the year is done.
But, it certainly doesn't seem that any of these sound like the very top-rated guys.
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I like the description of the $2 million SS. I haven't watched the video.
My issue is all the top guys, in the Jimenez/Torres group have deals. It also sounds like none of the tops guys are even in the Jimenez/Torres class anyway. We are going for a bunch of guys in the Frandy De La Rosa/Paniagua/Malvae type of kids. That is disappointing to me and not worth the penalties.
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I like the description of the $2 million SS. I haven't watched the video.
My issue is all the top guys, in the Jimenez/Torres group have deals. It also sounds like none of the tops guys are even in the Jimenez/Torres class anyway. We are going for a bunch of guys in the Frandy De La Rosa/Paniagua/Malvae type of kids. That is disappointing to me and not worth the penalties.
Agree 100 percent on this one. Why waste the money? One of the descriptions of one of the SS reminded me of Ryan Theriot, Not worth the penalty for going over on guys like that
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There is a case to be made about quality-through-quantity with these type of longshot, really young guys--even the top guys are longshots.
If Cubs go that route, I suppose that's the theory.
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Remember, there are more prospects than those in Latin America. And there are also certain to be some more Cuban players coming available, perhaps even more than usual, considering that under the new friendship with Cubs, it might be easier to defect than before.
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The Cubs may also try to trade for bonus slots from those teams that went over last year. That may be part of their strategy.
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They can only trade to bring it up to $5 million. I have doubts that any of the top Cuban will go to any team but the Dodgers in this period, unless the Dodgers do not want them.
As far as quality through quantity that is fine, but it isn't worth losing a shot a high end talent for 2 years. You can do that by signing cheaper guys.
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Having seen the talent from their first over-slot IFA draft, I plan to wait and see what they do this summer. I'll be very surprised if they go over the limit without blowing the doors off.
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Remember, the 7.9 million only pertains to the 7 or so top prospects mentioned. In addition to other prospects that he doesn't know about, there is also the 40 or so others that they will sign for much lower amounts, but still add up. 40 guys averaging 50,000 each still amount to a couple of million.
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Agree, Blue. This year might be a good time to take a shot at a promising HS pitcher. Or not, who knows.
On Gray, two years ago I thought he might be a stud, and finishing the summer dominant in the high-scoring Cal league supported that. But, last year in AA, his numbers were fine but nothing awesome. 2.7:1 K/BB, 1.2 WHIP, 8K/9IP, nothing Cy-Youngish there, either. Back when we were having the Appel/Gray draft spring, I thought it was very plausible that a big-time college pitcher drafted in the top 3, if things worked right and he really was enroute to ace-hood, could well be in the majors within 15 months, and could well be a main piece right out of camp two years later. Not so for Gray.
Sample size is no longer a consideration in evaluating performance?
Does this mean the Lester signing was definitely a mistake?
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Jes, K/9 ratio is a fairly common evaluation tool. So, over larger sample (like a full minor league season in this case), you divide the K's and innings each by 9 to get the K/9 ratio. Gray's 8K/9 was fine last year over his 124 innings, but not wow-acious like his 12.3 had been in his 37 innings of his draft summer, or like his 13.5 had been during his brief 5-start finish in the offense-inflating Cal League.
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Jes, K/9 ratio is a fairly common evaluation tool. So, over larger sample (like a full minor league season in this case), you divide the K's and innings each by 9 to get the K/9 ratio. Gray's 8K/9 was fine last year over his 124 innings, but not wow-acious like his 12.3 had been in his 37 innings of his draft summer, or like his 13.5 had been during his brief 5-start finish in the offense-inflating Cal League.
Yes, I am familiar with using K/9 IP, as an evaluation tool. However when it is used, it is generally used to also reflect tenths of K's/9 (like in your reference to 12.3 for his 37 draft summer innings). Last year, in his 124 AA innings Gray had a K/9 rate of 8.2, and this year, in his 9 innings pitched, he has 8 K's. As a result it seemed you were using his rate this season.... which is exactly 8/9 from having 8 K;s in the very small sample size of 9 innings.
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Trying to figure out why Schwarber only plays every other game.
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3-run homer for Bryant.
Either flied out to the wall in right or was robbed of a homer in right his previous time up depending on which account you believe.
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vines/gifs being tweeted show the ball he was robbed on was at the very top of the wall, maybe over, in straight away right field. Russell has 3 hits, and Vogelback is continuing to rake in AA.
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Im gonna go see the Smokies play Saturday.
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Vogelbach is doing a good job in showing why he was drafted. Still not showing overwhelming power, but that will come if he keeps making the contact he is doing.
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Russell: 3-4, 2B, 3 RBI
Bryant: 1-4, HR, 3 RBI, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_16_iowaaa_nozaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
2nd Iowa game rained out.
South Bend:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_16_souafx_ftwafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Black: 4-3-1-1-2-5
Edwards: 2-2/3 - 2-2-2-2-2
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_16_penaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Myrtle Beach rained out yet again, this time on the road.
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Vogelbach is hot. He has a 0.33 GO/AO ratio early, so even his outs he's mostly getting off the ground. If he can sustain the .500+ BABIP, he doesn't need to hit any HR's! As primarily an OBP guy, heh, maybe Maddon would like him someday as a leadoff man.
Almora's got his early meaningless-small-sample OPS up to .667, that's good progress compared to last year. His early meaningless small-sample 2.17 GO/AO is even worse ground ball factory than he was last year. So whatever adjustments or swing corrections he's made doesn't appear to have tinkered with his ground ball orientation, at least not yet.
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Give Almora a couple months before you go all Nitro Nic on him. ;D
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The death knell is when he names his daughter after Almora.
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Just for fun here are Kyle Schwarber's numbers so far as a Cub prospect:
76 games
274 plate appearances
.343 BA
.429 on-base
.639 slugging
1.068 OPS
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Some discussion going around as to whether Addison Russell starting at 2B Thursday means he may get a callup sooner than expected. Seems like organization may be moving up his timeline.
Guessing very, very little chance that Russell gets the Bryant service time treatment--waiting until next season--and that he'll be up mid-season at the absolute latest. And maybe a lot sooner than that.
Guessing that either Russell or Baez will be starting 2B for Cubs before end of May.
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A game in April matters just as much as a game in September, and our great start changes the landscape, if ever so slightly. I wouldn't be surprised if the club execs are considering a slight acceleration of timetables due to our current position.
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A game in April matters just as much as a game in September, and our great start changes the landscape, if ever so slightly. I wouldn't be surprised if the club execs are considering a slight acceleration of timetables due to our current position.
If the Cubs are still no more than half a game out in June, yes, but no decision on Russell is likely to be made before then, and the team's record in the first two weeks of the season simply will not play a role in the decision at that time.
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Schwarber: 0-1, 2 BB
Vogebach: 2-3
Pineyro: 6-2-0-0-0-3
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_17_penaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Almora: 0-4
Vogelbach: 3-3
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_17_penaax_tenaax_2&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torrez: 5-4-1-1-3-4
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_17_myrafa_wswafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Russell: 0-3, 2 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_17_okcaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 0-3, RBI, 2 BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_17_souafx_ftwafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Almora distributed his groundouts beautifully, grounding out once each to pitcher, 2B, SS, 3B, and 1B. He did have a called-strike-three K, and in his 7th out he managed a flyout to right. If he maintains his present 3K/3BB/34AB ratio, that normally seem an awesome split predicting excellent average and OBP. Hopefully that will prove true as the season plays out, and he's an April victim of small-sample-size .226 BABIP.
Saber guys, I assume that BABIP's tend to be habitually low for dedicated ground ball hitters?
With three walks on the season and a called strike three yesterday, I'm guessing he's attempting the "take pitches you can't drive, wait for pitches you can drive" logic to heart, or at least trying it for a while. Unfortunately the small sample suggests that for him thus far, pitches he can "drive" means "driving them" into the ground. I don't think he's hit a ball in the air to left field since opening night.
Tonight's the night, he's due to pull a single, a double, and a HR to left.
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A few thoughts.
It takes around 800 balls in play for BABIP to stabilize.
Expected BABIP in the simplest form thinks 24% of ground balls will be hits.
Ground Ball/Line Drive/Flyball numbers from the minors aren't super accurate.
Way to early to care.
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Pretty interesting that Russell is now going to be playing 2B regularly at Iowa. Think that tells us Russell will be up before Baez. 2B is the open position with Cubs and that's where Russell is playing.
Also may indicate that Baez is heading for a long stint at Iowa to rework his approach. That's my guess now.
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I think it will be interesting how they line up when Baez returns.
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..Expected BABIP in the simplest form thinks 24% of ground balls will be hits.....
Thanks, helpful. Almora has over 900 pro AB now; so the career ground ball orientation isn't actually new. Might be something to keep an eye on going forward.
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Underwood no-hitter through 5. Didn't allow any runs in his first start, either. So, nice start for him.
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Thanks, helpful. Almora has over 900 pro AB now; so the career ground ball orientation isn't actually new. Might be something to keep an eye on going forward.
FWIW last year was his lowest GB% of his career and the 800 balls in play is for the majors. It might be much higher in the minors. I think his GB% is just his ability to make contact and hopefully with a better approach it will improve.
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His GO/AO ratio has been fairly consistently ground-ball-ish.
2012: 1.41 2013: 1.37 2014: 1.44 (1.68 in AA)
Obviously 8 games this spring of 2.13 is tiny, but thus far it's an extension of what he's been before, a ground ball guy and opposite field guy. Often when a guy has a flaw, offseason and camp is a time when they work on flaws and focus on adjusting to correct.
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Not arguing it is a flaw. Last year he was at 44%. Previous years it has been 48%. My beef is that it is so early it isn't worth looking at. It likely won't be till at least June.
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If milb boxscore to be trusted, it has Underwood taking his no-hitter into the 7th inning before giving up two hits. If it's true, that's pretty remarkable to be getting into the 7th inning on his second start. 5 innings is normal long-outing at this stage. Obviously doesn't take as many pitches when facing 3 hitters per inning.
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Underwood threw 55 pitches through 6.
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wow, that's still only 3 pitches per batter. Nice.
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Almora 3 for 3 so far, with a ground single to center, a ground single to left, and a bunt single.
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All grounders all the time! That's the ticket!
System has a chance to win all their games tonight.
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Almora's 4th and 5th hits tonight were fly balls, one a double.
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He pulled one of the fly balls to center, too. Nice!
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Zagunis has his OBP up over .440. Small sample, but he's appeared to carry his game up to A+ pretty seamlessly thus far. Had a brief window at Kane county, but that was small, too, and JR has rightly noted that Boise to full-season doesn't always translate. So far so good.
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Candelaria is doing well and McKinney is heating up as well.
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Schwarber: 0-2, 3 BB, K
Almora: 5-5, 2B, RBI, SB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_18_penaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Underwood: 6-2-1-1-1-4
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_18_myrafa_wswafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
McKinney: 2-3, 2B, RBI, BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_18_myrafa_wswafa_2&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 0-2, 2 BB, 2 K, E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_18_swmafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Iowa was rained out.
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Does anyone have a scouting report on Zach Hedges? His numbers look pretty good between last year and his 2 starts this year. Low ERA. Decent Ks. Low BBs. Low BAA. 6'4 195 sounds projectable.
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After a pretty bad first game, Clifton has done pretty well. Five innings of one hit ball today at South Bend.
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After a pretty bad first game, Clifton has done pretty well. Five innings of one hit ball today at South Bend.
very nice. 7K/1BB. When that guy can keep the walks down, he's got a chance to be pretty good.
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Torres: 2-3, 2 E
Clifton: 5-1-0-0-1-7
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_19_swmafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Myrtle Beach and Tenn both rained out.
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Myrtle Beach now has 5 rain outs, last year they had 3.
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Iowa called in the 6th.
Russell: 0-2, E
Rivero: 0-1-0-0-2-0, WP 15 batters faced this year, 0 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_19_okcaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Everything fluid, but Russell has a .308 OBP and .740 OPS.
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and as you well know Craig, if Cubs scouting/development folks think Russell's approach and skill set are solid, they won't sweat small-sample-size AAA performance in April.
In fact, he is playing second again today, and from what I see on Twitter, Hoyer admitted on the radio this morning that the Cubs have issues on the big-league team at 2nd and essentially that's why Russell is getting reps over there. One doesn't have to read to much into anything to take away that he could be called up sooner rather than later to take over 2nd.
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Looks like the odds on the Cubs getting McKirahan back have been improved greatly.
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Yes, I do know that. Just noting the insignificant small-sample-size results are presently bad, not good. A call up today would be in spite of the small-sample hitting, not because of the small-sample-size hitting.
As we've seen from Baez (.833, .323 OBP), Alcantara (.890, .353OBP), Vitters (.891, .380 OBP), and Jackson (.817 OPS, .338 OBP), guys with respectable-but-modest PCL production often get totally buried in the majors.
I hope they let Russell demonstrate that he can drive the ball pretty consistently against AAA pitchers before they put him up against big-league pitching all the time.
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I wonder what the Cubs are thinking with Alcantara. Maddon's got him behind Herrera now, and he looks kind of hopeless/helpless. I wonder if Alcantara's window of opportunity is closing, or if management still has hopes for him. He might be better served playing and getting some regular AB in Iowa, and regaining some confidence, rather than just sitting and watching Herrera and failing in occasional pinch hitting opportunities. Maybe he's got no developmental potential anymore, but if he does I'm not sure his present situation is serving him well.
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Alcantara is probably up because Baez is down and LaStella is DL
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I agree. I think that Alcantara is the next to go down, as soon as they get what they believe is a decent replacement.
I doubt that the front office has given up on him. But he needs at bats on a regular basis, and isn't likely to get them in the big league team in the near future.
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Schwarber sure is taking his share of walks so far....
craig, i asked myself the same question yesterday, wondering how Maddon thinks of AA after his poor start. He looks lost at the plate
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Alcantara is probably up because Baez is down and LaStella is DL
And Olt out. Still, I'd almost think for Alcantara's sake, getting him out of this failure-cycle would do him good. Chris Valaika (sp?) could sit on the bench and make pinch-hitting outs occasionally about as well as Alcantara could, probably.
I wonder whether Baez will come back anytime soon? I think he got sent down before April first, so I don't think he's had any at-bats for a full three weeks. If he does come back sometime soon, it's probably going to take him a while to get back into his hitting groove.
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I believe that Baez never got any at bats at Iowa before he went on the berevement leave. I doubt that they would bring him straight to the big league club, even if they are thinking of bringing him up in the near future.
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I wish they would just play him at 2nd for a month and see what happens
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If over the next few weeks Russell adjusts well to 2B and holds his own at the plate, I expect he'll be up in May.
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I Cubs manager still hasn't heard anything on Baez, but the thinking is he will have to go to extended soring training before returing to the I Cubs.
Vailaka isn't on the 40 man roster so that might be an issue there.
Dave I wonder if it make McKirahan less likely. He gets basically an 80 game DL stint.
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I believe that Baez never got any at bats at Iowa before he went on the berevement leave. I doubt that they would bring him straight to the big league club, even if they are thinking of bringing him up in the near future.
Correct, he hasn't batted in game, minor-league or spring-training, since March. So he's going to need some work to get back into hitting shape. If he were a major-leaguer, he'd certainly go on a minor-league rehab before coming back after a 3+ week layoff. Perhaps he'd get a couple days in XST and then come up to Iowa and just rehab there, it's just the minors so why not.
I wonder if Arizona Phil has seen anything of him yet down in Mesa. Other than Phil's input, perhaps he has been practicing there for several days, who knows.
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Not much new on the Baez front:
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/sports/baseball/iowa-cubs/2015/04/20/baez-return-unknown/26074767/
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Dave I wonder if it make McKirahan less likely. He gets basically an 80 game DL stint.
Isn't it a suspension? If so, I believe that it will not count towards MLB service time. Of course, that might not affect a rule v draftee.
In which case, that might be a great thing to do in the future. Draft a kid, rub some cream on him, and suspend him for the season, thus keeping him.
I suspect ArizonaPhil would know.
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Craig, you've got to admit that it's a little funny that after Russell broke up a no-hitter in game 1 of today's DH, he has two doubles so far in game two!
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Russell's got a couple of doubles in Iowa's game 1. Good job.
Also got a single in game 1, his and Lake's singles spoiling Scott Baker's otherwise perfect game.
He's got 1 walk in 43 AB thus far this year. He had >10% walk rates at each stop in the Oakland system. Must be very freeing to come to the Cubs with no such expectations.
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Isn't it a suspension? If so, I believe that it will not count towards MLB service time. Of course, that might not affect a rule v draftee.
In which case, that might be a great thing to do in the future. Draft a kid, rub some cream on him, and suspend him for the season, thus keeping him.
I suspect ArizonaPhil would know.
80 sounds like a second or third offense, doesn't it?
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Craig, you've got to admit that it's a little funny that after Russell broke up a no-hitter in game 1 of today's DH, he has two doubles so far in game two!
Heh heh, I need to make some comments about Vogelbach's power, too! will he then hit 2 or 5 HR's?
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Isn't it a suspension? If so, I believe that it will not count towards MLB service time. Of course, that might not affect a rule v draftee.
In which case, that might be a great thing to do in the future. Draft a kid, rub some cream on him, and suspend him for the season, thus keeping him.
I suspect ArizonaPhil would know.
http://www.cbabaseball.com/rules/index.php?title=Service_Time_(MLB)
This site says it counts. The problem with rubbing cream is if the kid did cheat in the future the suspension increases. I believe 80 days is the new starting penalty.
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It does seem that with the Cubs' current 2B deficiencies at the major league level, Baez out of commission for some time due to his leave, and Russell playing 2B consistently now, that the FO is at least considering bringing him up sooner rather than later if he impresses.
If that happens, it will be interesting to have an infield of Rizzo (25), Russell (21), Castro (25) and Bryant (23), with Baez (22) waiting in the wings.
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http://www.cbabaseball.com/rules/index.php?title=Service_Time_(MLB)
This site says it counts. The problem with rubbing cream is if the kid did cheat in the future the suspension increases. I believe 80 days is the new starting penalty.
His major league service credit is irrelevant. The issue is not major league service credit but whether he fulfills his Rule 5 time on the active roster requirements, which are that "the selected player must remain active (not on the disabled list) for a minimum of 90 days."
So, looks like he might fulfill that requirement, assuming that Braves want him back on their major league roster. Even if he falls short, he can meet the requirements next season, again, if Braves still want him on active roster.
In sum, the suspension probably has no impact on Cubs getting him back, with the caveat that he could fall out of favor within Braves organization for the PED suspension, which I suppose could be true for Cubs too if he's offered back.
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Kiley McDaniel chat today at Fangraphs. McDaniel is a little less enthusiastic about Addison Russell as a SS than most:
Q: Addison Russel ETA? What position does he debut?
Kiley McDaniel: ..... Russell’s release is a little slow, so he may end up being not as good defensively as Castro, but the glove is a little better. It isn’t an easy situation to predict, especially with Baez and Bryant also in the IF mix.
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His major league service credit is irrelevant. The issue is not major league service credit but whether he fulfills his Rule 5 time on the active roster requirements, which are that "the selected player must remain active (not on the disabled list) for a minimum of 90 days."
So, looks like he might fulfill that requirement, assuming that Braves want him back on their major league roster. Even if he falls short, he can meet the requirements next season, again, if Braves still want him on active roster.
In sum, the suspension probably has no impact on Cubs getting him back, with the caveat that he could fall out of favor within Braves organization for the PED suspension, which I suppose could be true for Cubs too if he's offered back.
Now they don't have to come up with a fake injury to hide him.
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From ArizonaPhil
20-year old Dominican RHP Santiago Rodriguez and 17-year old Venezuelan switch-hitting SS Andruw Monasterio have been added to the Cubs Extended Spring Training roster. Rodriguez was at Instructs last fall, while Monasterio will be making his U. S. debut.
It is unusual for a Latino of any age to make his debut in the U. S. instead of Venezuela or the DR, much less a 17 year old. That would seem to be an indication that Monasterio isn't considered one of the run-or-the-mill signees. Torres and Jimenez did so last year, but I can't think of any others.
Anyone know what his signing bonus was?
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Here is another one that is starting his career in the US.
2B Carlos Sepulveda: Sepulveda is 5-foot-10 and hits from the left side. The 18-year old Sepulveda could make his professional debut in the United States. The Cubs were reportedly impressed with his bat.
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I wonder whether Baez will come back anytime soon? I think he got sent down before April first, so I don't think he's had any at-bats for a full three weeks. If he does come back sometime soon, it's probably going to take him a while to get back into his hitting groove.
WHAT hitting groove?
His OPS before his bereavement leave was .000. Isn't it setting his bar pretty low for him to have that as his goal?
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I wish they would just play him at 2nd for a month and see what happens
Didn't we see what happens last year when that is done?
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Iowa Gm 1:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_20_okcaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Russell: 2-4, 2 2B, RBI, SB, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_20_okcaaa_iowaaa_2&t=g_box&sid=milb
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From ArizonaPhil
20-year old Dominican RHP Santiago Rodriguez and 17-year old Venezuelan switch-hitting SS Andruw Monasterio have been added to the Cubs Extended Spring Training roster. Rodriguez was at Instructs last fall, while Monasterio will be making his U. S. debut.
It is unusual for a Latino of any age to make his debut in the U. S. instead of Venezuela or the DR, much less a 17 year old. That would seem to be an indication that Monasterio isn't considered one of the run-or-the-mill signees. Torres and Jimenez did so last year, but I can't think of any others.
Anyone know what his signing bonus was?
He reportedly received a "small" (less than $100,000?) bonus. However, he did play 36 games in the VSL last year, batting .292/.368/.343/.711, with 15 walks versus 19 strikeouts.
Also, Jefferson Mejia (part of the Montero trade) debuted in the U.S. last year.
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Heh heh, I need to make some comments about Vogelbach's power, too! will he then hit 2 or 5 HR's?
I did it! I did it! Vogelbach hit one!
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What is your academic specialty again, alchemy -- converting basic materials into gold?
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What is your academic specialty again, alchemy -- converting basic materials into gold?
Sorcery, with a minor in witchcraft.
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So, Craig is Professor Snape, from Hogwarts? Suddenly it all makes sense.
http://rack.3.mshcdn.com/media/ZgkyMDEzLzA2LzEyLzczL1NuYXBlLmFjZDUzLmdpZgpwCXRodW1iCTEyMDB4OTYwMD4/8de162dc/c6b/Snape.gif
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Looking at Nic Jackson and the others whose career Craig has destroyed, his alchemy seems to be turning gold into basic materials.
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Schwarber: 0-2, 2 BB, 2 K
Edwards: 1-2/3 -1-4-0-2-3, 6 BB in 5-2/3 IP
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_20_tenaax_jacaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
South Bend:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_20_swmafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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McKinney: 2-5, HR, 2 RBI, BB
Hannemann: 2-4, RBI, 2 BB, K, 3 SB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_20_myrafa_salafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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.He reportedly received a "small" (less than $100,000?) bonus. However, he did play 36 games in the VSL last year, batting .292/.368/.343/.711, with 15 walks versus 19 strikeouts...
Thanks, Cubsin. Where did you get that report? Too bad that he wasn't viewed as worth much money, I know guys emerge, but scouts are usually pretty good at anticipating/projecting even those. I wonder whether there's any possibility that he was scouted favorably, and perhaps did get a bigger bonus than we know, but it was simply never reported? With a May birthday, he wasn't eligible two July's ago. So he signed during the second half of the signing year, probably well after the Cubs had gone over their cap, and probably well after most of the other teams had kind of spent their budgets. And pretty much well after Badler was paying a lot of attention. (Gallindo, it was hard to get info on his signing, for example.) So I'm wondering whether perhaps Monastereo maybe signed for less than his talent because there wasn't much competition or other teams with money left competing? Or whether he got a non-trivial deal, enough so that he didn't want to wait another year, but while Badler might be keeping tabs on Tseng or Galindo sized deals, maybe a $450K offer in January doesn't real make the news? Just wondering.
I recall wondering about Monasterio last fall, after the following somewhat bizarre note by Tom U. (who I doubt knows anything, but perhaps has some contact in the organization). It was in a catchers article, paragraph talking about my friend Yohan Matos:
http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2014/11/cubs-farm-report-110614.php#.VTWYUFrQncZ
"But don’t be too surprised if Matos moves up quickly, as he has shown to have some of the future star power seen in other teenage prospects such as Gleyber Torres, Jefferson Mejia, Wladimir Galindo, and Andruw Monasterio."
Maybe Tom just looked at the stats and liked Monasterio's. But I suppose maybe he talked to somebody in the Cub system who had favorable comments about Monasteri.
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Here's my source: http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2014/07/cant-catch-me-cause-the-rabbit-done-died-cubs-2-red-sox-1/ (search the article, the Monasterio snippet is in the comments). Starlin Castro signed for $45,000, so I wouldn't dismiss Monasterio just because he didn't receive a large signing bonus.
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You can never really tell much about teenagers. However, now that teams are dumping so much money in the DR on scouting and building academies down there, it's becoming a little less of a crap shoot, scouting-wise.
These are kids that haven't been playing organized baseball of any real substance. They don't have little league. All they have are buscones trolling the sandlots, looking to score their next meal ticket.
It's still hard to project really raw 15 or 16 year-olds into guys that are going to be playing baseball as adults in their primes. Once teams get their hands on these kids, get them eating right, lifting weights, get them on supplements that are legal and start coaching them, you just never know which ones are going to take off, which ones are going to flame out in AA and which ones are going to fall by the wayside.
All the scouting in the world is never going to tell you what kid is going to fall in love with Wendy's chili or a stripper with a coke habit.
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Or worse, fall in love with coke and a stripper with a Wendy's chili habit.
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Thanks, Cubsin. No question, a kid is 15 when he's being scouted to be signed at age 16. A lot of studs in the majors were already studs in 9th grade, I'm sure, but certainly not all.
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I'd say most were.
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5 walks in 5 innings for Stinnett tonight which is an improvement from the 7 in 2+ last time out.
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Almora!
1. He hit a line drive to left field!
2. He hit only a single grounder, and that for a hit!
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Rivero: 1-0-1-1-2-1, 4 IP, 6 BB, 2 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_21_nozaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Schwarber: 2-5, RBI, K, 2 PB
Black: 6-3-1-1-2-4
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_21_tenaax_jacaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 0-3, 3K, E
Stinnett: 5-2-1-0-5-4
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_21_lcoafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Mckinney: 2-5, RBI
Tseng: 4-1/3 -6-2-2-1-3
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_21_myrafa_salafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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John Arguello had this note on Stinnett:
Jake Stinnett was throwing hard today (one pitch read 100 mph on the stadium according to the South Bend announcer) but was wild, walking 5 but he was also squeezed a bit. He also struck out 4 in 5 innings of work. Hitters only managed 2 hits off of him and an unearned run. I can't speak to the accuracy of the stadium gun, but the Cubs 2nd round pick pitches in the 93-95 range and I've heard he's hit as high as 97, so 100 seems like a stretch, but we will try to verify if we can. He also threw a pretty tight curve with sharp, downward break and a change. All 3 pitches have the potential to be average or better at the MLB level.
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He has a lot of movement on his sinker and I've wondered if that throws off low A umps.
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Vogelbach has 7 BB's and just 3 K's in 39 AB so far. Maybe he's finally starting to break through. He'd be a nice trade chip if his bat picks up this season.
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He has a lot of movement on his sinker and I've wondered if that throws off low A umps.
I would think so. That pitch also throws off many major league umps.
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While I'll concede that Vogelbach's best position is DH, I don't understand the common desire to send him to an American League team in a trade. The next CBA (beginning in 2017) will either add the DH to National League teams or it won't. If it doesn't, he should be MLB ready by then and have greater value. If it does, we have a very strong candidate for the job.
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Hoping Alcantara goes down and starts hitting. He could turn into a valuable trade chip.
Probably going to need a starter and a reliever at some point
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They seem to need a reliever now. Motte and Schlitter are shaky at best. Any news on the possible return of Grimm and/or Ramirez?
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Everybody needs good relievers though, right (except the Royals)? Gonna be tough to grab a good one from another team given the competitive trade market.
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Javy Baez would probably fetch us a pretty good one.
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They seem to need a reliever now. Motte and Schlitter are shaky at best. Any news on the possible return of Grimm and/or Ramirez?
I just posted this on the 2015 thread. As I said there, I don't know exactly what this means, but it sounds positive.
Justin GrimmVerified account
@GrimmReaper51
Encouraging day today! Now I'm ready to watch the boys take the series tonight! #LetsGo
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Motte has had bad starts to a season before and come back. Schlitter needs a shave, new uniform number, and two months in Iowa.
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Have Karchner and Heredia retired? So soon. So soon.
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I know Motte isn't lights out but as a 5th reliever he would be fine. The problem right now is he has been moved up to the number 3 righty and is getting overexposed. Rosscup and Coke are fine along with Rondon and Strop. Jackson in a very small sample size is doing well and should be a reasonable long man for now. Just getting '2014' Grimm back would be huge and not removing effective starters after 84 pitches would help as well. I really like Maddon, but sometimes I think really smart managers make moves just to look smart. That's what removing Wood for Schlitter last night looked like to me. The day Shlitter is demoted/released will be a very happy day for this Cubs fan.
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Have Karchner and Heredia retired? So soon. So soon.
Sorry Curt, we don't have Garland, Noel, Speier and Orie to trade any more.
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I wondered last night why Maddon stuck with Schlitter for as long as he did. Schlitter needs to be sent down. He is not adding anything positive right now
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Wada today:
5-1/3 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 5 K, 0 HR
Get well soon. Opportunity awaits.
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First half of this BA piece is on Duane Underwood, with video.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/underwood-overwhelms-winston-salem/
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That BA piece on Underwood says he lost weight. Wasn't he a twig when they drafted him?
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Not sure what he was when they drafted him, but it has been reported that he came to spring training 2014 (or 2013, don't remember which) quite out of shape.
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Ok, seems odd to go from that skinny to overweight that quickly. Usually guys like that have trouble adding weight. Speaking of which, the Edwards bullpen strategy isn't exactly working.
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..... Speaking of which, the Edwards bullpen strategy isn't exactly working.
Yeah, with Pierce Johnson out and Edwards struggling at the moment, Underwood probably Cubs #1 pitching prospect as of today.
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Vogelbach responds to Craig's sniping with another home run.
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Jeremy Null 6 innings, 3 hits, no runs, no walks, 4 strikeouts.
Good time to pitch a shutout, because South Bend has been limited to 14 runs so far.
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Walks are Null.
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Runs are too.
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Myrtle Beach:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_22_myrafa_salafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Iowa:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_22_nozaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Chris, you must be confusing Underwood with someone else. he was 6'3" 210 his final year of high school.
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Chris, you must be confusing Underwood with someone else. he was 6'3" 210 his final year of high school.
You sure? PG has him at 185 though some of the pics I'm finding now make him look bigger than I remember.
http://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Playerprofile.aspx?ID=250831
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Almora: 2-4, SF, RBI
Schwarber: 4-6, RBI, K
Vogelbach: 2-5, 2B, HR, 5 RBI, BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_22_tenaax_jacaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 2-5, 2 RBI, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_22_lcoafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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AA pitchers must just love facing Schwarber and Vogelbach (which is also probably the name of an law firm in Lancaster County, PA) back-to-back.
And, for what it's worth Chris, this is the Underwood pre-draft article I found:
http://www.lonestarball.com/2012/5/29/3050867/2012-draft-prospects-preview-duane-underwood
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Not sure how often he's done it past, but Almora was playing left today.
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Vogelbach's homer:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=85163083&sid=milb
Vogelbach's homer from three days ago:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=82457783&sid=milb
Schwarber's RBI single:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=85204383&sid=milb
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Not sure how often he's done it past, but Almora was playing left today.
Bryant's not giving up his CF post.
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Baez should be reporting to Mesa today.
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A top 18 year Cuban CF left the island. He will likely be unable to sign until 2016 IFA period. Pulling out of some contracts and staying below the limit just makes too much sense.
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A top 18 year Cuban CF left the island. He will likely be unable to sign until 2016 IFA period. Pulling out of some contracts and staying below the limit just makes too much sense.
Why would it take 18 months or more to establish his eligibility to sign with a major league team?
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I was curious- was Null one of our draft picks or did we get him from another organization? What team did we get Blake Cooper from? Did he come over in Valbuena trade?
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15th Round Pick #439 - Jeremy Null, RHP from Western Carolina (NC) - Junior
Jeremy Null is a rather big right hander. Null is 6-foot-8, 225 pounds but injuries this season hurt his draft stock and dropped him from a potential top five-round pick. Null sat in the 90-92 mph range and hit 93 mph early in in the season. His velocity dipped into the 85-88 mph range due to back issues. Prior to his back troubles his slider showed plus potential. Null also throws a changeup, but rarely uses it and according to Baseball America his frequent use of his sider could have hurt his velocity.
Null works downhill and has a stiff, upright delivery with a short stride and arm action, according to Baseball America, that puts stress on his shoulder and elbow. Null projects as a reliever.
This past spring, Null was 6-4 in 15 starts with a 2.94 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. In 101 innings, he gave up 87 hits with 29 walks and 93 strikeouts.
listed at 6'8", 230 pounds on his school website, MLB has 6'7", 225 pounds
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Thanks DaveP...I thought he was a draftee
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Why would it take 18 months or more to establish his eligibility to sign with a major league team?
Because of his birthday he has to register with MLB by May 15th. He can't register until he establishes residency and he can't do that in a month, so he has to sit out until the next 2016 class. Same reason Alvarez isn't a free agent now.
Edit:
McDaniel had another piece on IFA with Lucius Fox being a free agent. It appears to be a race between the Cubs, Dodgers and Rangers for him. I'm doubtful that the Cubs will beat out the Dodgers for him and that would mean the Cubs are likely going to take a 2 year penalty and spend around $12.5 million on bonuses and penalities and miss the top talent in this class. Another way is they are signing maybe 1-2 more players of in the $1 million class of players then what they could by not going over the penalty and just trading for extra space.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lucius-fox-throws-a-wrench-into-july-2nd-signings/
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Ive met a few luscious foxes in my day.
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I was curious- was Null one of our draft picks or did we get him from another organization? What team did we get Blake Cooper from? Did he come over in Valbuena trade?
Not hard to find. http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=null--000jer
Drafted by the Seattle Mariners in the 37th round of the 2011 MLB June Amateur Draft from Bunker Hill HS (Claremont, NC) and the Chicago Cubs in the 15th round of the 2014 MLB June Amateur Draft from Western Carolina University (Cullowhee, NC).
baseball-reference.com has every player who has ever appeared in the majors, and all who have appeared in the minors at any level in at least the last 60 years.
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Vogelbach gets some love from BA's JJ Cooper:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/ba-today-obrien-honeywell-smokies/
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Hannemann: 3-4, 2B, RBI, SB
Torrez: 7-4-0-0-0-1
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_23_wswafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Iowa:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_23_nozaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Torres: 2-3, 2 RBI 2 SB, E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_23_lcoafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Schwarber: 3-6, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, K
Vogelbach: 1-3, 2B, 3 BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_23_tenaax_jacaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Schwarber also hit a drive that was run down at the wall in right in the 1st.
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Almora has 5 BB/4 K.
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Vogelbach and, especially, Schwarber, are doing their thing again tonight. They need a nickname. How about, "The Bratwurst Brothers"
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Come on, neither of them is that big. Vogelbach looks far leaner than three years ago and Schwarber is just a barrel-chested guy.
(http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CDUgi-MWgAEdjid.png)
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Schwarber reminds me of Jeff Bagwell both physically and a bit with his stance.
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Almora has 5 BB/4 K.
Is this supposed to be positive, negative, or just an observation?
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The 5 BB is positive. The 4 K is observation.
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Well, it is about triple his walk rate of last year. Unfortunately, he is showing zero power or speed.
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He never showed speed and chances are the power will come.
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9 of Vogelbach's 20 hits have been for XB. Nice.
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He's never shown either and I'm not sure why you're confident the one will come. Three EBH's in 55 AB's his second go-round in AA doesn't scream developing power.
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The bratwurst thing was as much about their names as anything. And, yeah, Vogelbach is not 280 anymore, but he's an easy 250.
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Doesn't look 250 to me.
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=82457783&sid=milb
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I wonder if the big leg kick enabled him to get a bigger swing, bigger power, and more bat speed in past. Some loss of power may be the present compromise made to reduce the leg kick? But, guys try lots of stuff for a little while; trying something doesn't mean you'll stick with it if it doesn't start to pay off sooner or later.
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Sigh.
Dan Vogelbach
21
1B Tennessee Smokies
Double-A | Southern League
MLB Parent Club: Chicago Cubs
Full Name: Daniel Vogelbach
Age: 22 (December 17, 1992)
Birthplace: Orlando, FL
Bats/Throws: L/R Ht: 6' 0" Wt: 250
Draft: Round 2 (2011, CHC)
School: Bishop Verot, Fort Myers, FL
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He's never shown either and I'm not sure why you're confident the one will come. Three EBH's in 55 AB's his second go-round in AA doesn't scream developing power.
1.) He's 21 and power comes later.
2.) He's completely changing his approach at the plate. The new approach should in the future lead to better pitches to drive and more power.
3.) His first go around at AA consisted of a whole 144 PA. He has a total of 201 PA at AA. Did I mention he's 21 and still super young for the league.
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Just because he is listed at 250 on a website doesn't make it so. That weight has been locked in for more than two years yet Vogelbach said he lost 30 lbs prior to last season.
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1.) He's 21 and power comes later.
2.) He's completely changing his approach at the plate. The new approach should in the future lead to better pitches to drive and more power.
3.) His first go around at AA consisted of a whole 144 PA. He has a total of 201 PA at AA. Did I mention he's 21 and still super young for the league.
That's fine, but I still don't see where the faith comes from that he will hit for power in the future. Even younger kids often show some pop at low levels, particularly when they are the 6th pick in a draft. Watching him in ST and a bit in AA, he rarely drives the balls anywhere. Lots of grounders and flares.
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Sure power hitters do. Almora isn't a power hitter.
Sandberg had 25 HR in 1991 PA in the minors at the same age. Castro had 9 HR in 1098 minor/fall league/dominic AB. Almora has 14 HR in 1003 PA. He doesn't have to be a power hitter to be valuable. Even 15 HR could make him an all star. Castro and Almora have really similar profiles as hitters and Castro looks to be a 15-20 HR guy.
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Castro at least drives the ball once in a while. I just haven't seen Almora do that.
Also, and I don't mean to belabor this, but Castro has averaged 10 homers per 600 AB's in the majors, never reaching 15. Maybe he'll get to be a 15-20 homer hitter, but he's not there yet.
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1.) He's 21 and power comes later.
2.) He's completely changing his approach at the plate. The new approach should in the future lead to better pitches to drive and more power.
3.) His first go around at AA consisted of a whole 144 PA. He has a total of 201 PA at AA. Did I mention he's 21 and still super young for the league.
Yes, you did mention that. What you did not mention is what would create a reasonable belief that HE will develop power later.
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Kiley McDaniel puts Almora game power at 20 present and 50 future so I have scouting backing up my opinion. 50 future power would project him to 15-18 HR. Almora's ISO has also been more consistent than Castro's in the minors.
Castro has hit 14 HR twice. He hit 14 HR last year and missed almost 30 games, it isn't a huge stretch to think he can hit 15. He already has 2 in 14 games. Yep, no way he gets to 15.
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Castro has hit 14 HR twice. He hit 14 HR last year and missed almost 30 games, it isn't a huge stretch to think he can hit 15. He already has 2 in 14 games. Yep, no way he gets to 15.
Last year was the closest he's come. In his other seasons, he had 660+ AB's. You have to hit 1-4 to get that many AB's. Is Almora likely to hit 1-4 in the Cubs' lineup?
It's not impossible Almora could change his approach and start driving the ball. I'd just like to see it start happening at some point before it permanently feels like he's an impatient singles hitter.
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Kiley McDaniel puts Almora game power at 20 present and 50 future so I have scouting backing up my opinion. 50 future power would project him to 15-18 HR. Almora's ISO has also been more consistent than Castro's in the minors.
Castro has hit 14 HR twice. He hit 14 HR last year and missed almost 30 games, it isn't a huge stretch to think he can hit 15. He already has 2 in 14 games. Yep, no way he gets to 15.
To be more accurate, McDaniel put Almora's upside as being 15-20 HR, meaning that is about the best he can see Almora producing, not that he is predicting 15 HR as likely. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-prospects-chicago-cubs/ And from looking at the content at the link, it is not even clear McDaniel has ever actually seen Almora play, or whether his "scouting report" is little more than an amalgamation of what he has read from others, with some wishful thinking tossed in.
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Last year was the closest he's come. In his other seasons, he had 660+ AB's. You have to hit 1-4 to get that many AB's. Is Almora likely to hit 1-4 in the Cubs' lineup?
It's not impossible Almora could change his approach and start driving the ball. I'd just like to see it start happening at some point before it permanently feels like he's an impatient singles hitter.
Castro was hitting the ball farther last year by battled ball distance as well. His power is still developing and his approach has improved. These are all things that Almora has to do. He is working on the approach and he still needs to develop muscle mass. I wouldn't expect much power out of him this year, but if he can do the hard part, which is the approach and making it a part of himself at the plate. The power will come. It may not even show up for a few years after he is called up to the bigs.
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Kiley McDaniel puts Almora game power at 20 present and 50 future so I have scouting backing up my opinion. 50 future power would project him to 15-18 HR. ...
McDaniel has been Almora's strongest supporter in the media scouting world. McDaniel said he thought that this might be a Soler-type breakout year for Almora. No hint of that yet, of course, but there's still 4 months left. Almora hit 9 HR's last year at age 20, so before the season began it would certainly have seemed feasible to project he might get into double figures this summer, and up to 15 down the road.
Obviously no hint of any of that power thus far, but it's not even a full month. I've been concerned that he's a total ground ball guy; actually this week he's hit some popups and flyouts. Good to see.
I have to admit that in the few eyeball viewings of Almora, it's difficult for me to project much HR power coming. His stance and stroke this year and last year seem strongly committed to RF/CF, and I'm not sure he's likely to have to have the strength or bat speed to be driving 15-18 opposite/center-field HR's. But, perhaps he'll adjust his stance and his hips alignment to better use his pull field later on in his career. But for now, to my eyes he doesn't appear to have much of the bat speed or the extension in his stroke that go with 15-HR's.
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Callis also mentioned in his write up that he could see 15 HR's down the line. BP under Parks mentioned it last year. It isn't just McDaniel that thinks he has the potential for it. He can be a really good player with 5-10 HR's as well.
Projecting him isn't about what he is right now, but about what he will become as he fills out. I'm really more concerned about his adjustment in approach sticking and becoming natural for him. He hasn't been my favorite prospect of the Cubs guys, but I'm encourage by what he has done so far. The approach change is really the big thing for him.
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Doesn't look 250 to me.
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=82457783&sid=milb
It was reported in spring training that Vogelbach checked in at 228, which was actually up from his playing weight most of last year.
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For me, a key to evaluating Almora is how he may fit into the context of Cubs future. He does not have to be a Russell-type impact bat to be an important piece.
Think of him as a defensive general of the OF taking command of flyballs and allowing the corner guys to have less responibility to cover the gaps. And, as a guy who will hit for average. He does not have to bat at top of order in this lineup.
And, there is still a real upside for more offense. Not only is he 21 in AA already, but 21 and 8 days. A very young 21. Yes, the months are significant given the age-to-level of competition.
Then, there is his physical frame for potential power growth at a lean 6' 2' and 180.
And, the low Ks and contact abilities--a good bet to hit for average as a floor.
So, yes, the approach and the swing are very significant question marks, but the context of how he fits with Cubs future in light of his positives and age-to-level is a key. A very important season for him---don't think the daily travails should get in the way of his evaluation. We'll know more at end of the season.
Think he would still be a valuable guy hitting a soft .280 and batting 9th in Maddon's lineup while playing gold glove CF defense and commanding the overall OF defense, with clubhouse leadership. Maybe he can do more offensively too. Again, 21 and 8 days in AA.
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Pretty much this is where I'm at, but I think to get to the .280 the approach needs to stick.
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Well said, Reb. The median OBP and OPS for NL CFers who played CF in more than 45 games in 2014 was .322 and .692. The bar for offense is not that high for a CFer who is strong defensively.
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...The median OBP and OPS for NL CFers who played CF in more than 45 games in 2014 was .322 and .692. The bar for offense is not that high for a CFer who is strong defensively.
Excellent point. Almora has a very reasonable chance to blossom into a .650-.700-OPS type guy. Combined with defense, that might make him a serviceable guy who will play a lot of games. And if he eventually hits better than that, perhaps up at that .692 median or perhaps eventually even better than that, who knows.
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Almora has a very reasonable chance to blossom into a .650-.700-OPS type guy.
Sorry, but that still leaves me saying, "Yuck!"
Trade him for a starting pitcher.
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LOL all damn day.
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Nobody is talking about .650 OPs for Almora as acceptable. That's misinterpreting the discussion.
If hits .280, even a soft .280, he's going to be well above .650.
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Just for fun looking at Leonys Martin last year. He's a good defensive CF with an OPS of .689 in 2014. He was worth 3.5 fWAR last year. Now his baserunning was worth 6.6 runs and if you remove that and move it to zero that gives you around 2.9 fWAR. That is a pretty good starter. Just for reference he had a 6.7% BB%, 19.6% K% and an ISO .090. That is a pretty decent comp for bad hitting Almora.
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I think it is bad form to keep posting that. I am no big Jesbeard fan but I don't find it funny to keep throwing that in his face. We're better than that here at the BBF. Or at least I hope we are.
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Not that Jes needs someone to protect him, but I'm sure everyone is well aware of what has happened. He is also the only person that posts with his full name, so it isn't like he is trying to hide anything. If you don't like him, just put him on ignore.
Edit: The posting of it is also as annoying as Jes can be at his worst.
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Not that Jes needs someone to protect him, but I'm sure everyone is well aware of what has happened. He is also the only person that posts with his full name, so it isn't like he is trying to hide anything. If you don't like him, just put him on ignore.
Edit: The posting of it is also as annoying as Jes can be at his worst.
Agree
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Schwarber's home run from last night:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=86907783&sid=milb
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Wow, someone apparently lacks the balls to leave their efforts at insults out for all to see.... Sort of disappointing to have missed it, but it makes me wonder what anyone was responding to.
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Nobody is talking about .650 OPs for Almora as acceptable. That's misinterpreting the discussion.
If hits .280, even a soft .280, he's going to be well above .650.
reb, I am arguing almost exactly that. Maybe not .650, but I'm arguing that an Almora who hits .275/.315/.365/.680 while playing good defense might very well be acceptable, and be a guy who starts a lot of games for a lot of playoff seasons. If the median OPS is .692 for high-usage CFers, I don't see why a .680-OPS with excellent defense might not qualify as perfectly average.
Sure, I'd like to be above-average at every position. But if the Cubs reach a point where Almora is our worst starter and he's perfectly league-average for his position, that might be pretty nice. An anti-awful CFer who's perfectly average, or perhaps a bit better than that, might be pretty valuable. If he drums up enough power to OPS at .700 or .730, all the better.
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Jes, it was a link to an article about your disbarment. I didn't bother to go to the link.
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Wow, someone apparently lacks the balls to leave their efforts at insults out for all to see.... Sort of disappointing to have missed it, but it makes me wonder what anyone was responding to.
It was my post. I told everyone that you couldn't tell the difference between White Castle Hamburgers and steak from Morton's Steak House.
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Torres: 1-3, BB, K, E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_24_souafx_ftwafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Mckinney: 2-3, SF, RBI
Underwood: 5-4-2-1-2-3
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_24_wswafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Tenn rained out.
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Alcantara: 0-2, 2 BB, K, E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_24_nozaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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It was my post. I told everyone that you couldn't tell the difference between White Castle Hamburgers and steak from Morton's Steak House.
I might not be able to. I've never been in a Mortons... though it is hard to imagine even the most shameless hucksters passing off as a steak anything that could be confused with a White Castle gut-busting slider.
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Jes, it was a link to an article about your disbarment. I didn't bother to go to the link.
Was it something new? If so, I would genuinely appreciate it being reposted since I have not seen it. Nothing new in more than four years that I am aware of.
Who was it that thought they were posting something new?
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I'm not sure who the poster was.
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Haven't looked at last night's performances yet but here are my prospect, surprise, and disappointment teams based on a tiny sample size
LF: Charcer Burks
Charcer Burks
Shawon Dunston
CF: Albert Almora
Albert Almora (much improved K/W)
Kevonte Mitchell (didn't make full season team)
RF: Billy McKinney
Mark Zagunis
Bijan Rademacher
1B Dan Vogelbach
Dan Vogelbach
Jason Vosler (position shift)
2B Chesny Young
Stephen Bruno
Danny Lockhart
3B Jeimer Candelario
Jeimer Candelario
Christian Villanueva
C Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
Victor Caratini and Gioskar Amaya
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There is nothing shameful in being a shameless huckster.
Besides, for snot nosed kids straight out of the backwoods, White Castles are as good as steak. I told him that they were possum steaks.
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Beeler starting for the I Cubs tonight.
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The ole Brat brothers are at it again. Schwarber hits a sac fly to the wall and Vogelbach follows with a homer to center in the 1st.
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Fun day in the minors. Zastrynzy, Edwards did well in an offensive heavy AA games. Almora hit fly balls for Craig. Vogelbach hit a HR and got on base 5 times. Lake is hitting almost .300. Blackburn was ruffed up in the first, but recovered well. Clifton was good. Torres (SS) left the game, hopefully it wasn't an injury
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Attaboy Chris. I'll give you 5% off the first Brat Bros t-shirt I sell you.
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Schwarber: 1-4, 2B, SF, 2 RBI
Vogelbach: 3-3, HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_25_cngaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Hannemann: 3-4, 2B, BB, SB, PO/CS
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_25_wswafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Clifton: 5-3-1-1-0-7
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_25_souafx_ftwafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Almora hit one sac fly ball (to right :)), everything else on the ground, including two infield hits.
Vogelbach on the season: 3K/3HR/13BB. Small sample, of course. But guys with 1:1 HR/K ratios, or 4:1 BB/K ratios don't come along very often, even in small sample sizes.
Trevor Clifton 7K/0BB. 14K/1BB over his last two starts. I think he's moving up my prospect list, nice. If he can keep his walks down, he's got a chance to be good.
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Iowa:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_25_iowaaa_cspaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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....Vogelbach on the season: 3K/3HR/13BB. Small sample, of course. But guys with 1:1 HR/K ratios, or 4:1 BB/K ratios don't come along very often, even in small sample sizes...
AZ Phil on Saturday about Vogelbach playing a position:
I once thought that if Adam Dunn could play LF, then anybody could. Until I saw Dan Vogelbach. Not only do I not think he can play LF, he is also one of the worst defensive 1st basemen I have ever seen. And it's not because he doesn't work hard or something like that, because he does work hard. He simply has no defensive aptitude whatsoever
If there ever was a DH, it's Dan Vogelbach.
As I have said before, I firmly believe that the N. L. will adopt the DH as part of the new CBA in 2017. And once that happens, Vogelbach will have a position he can play in the National League.
He is a DH. Period.
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Vogelbach has swung and missed at something like 5 pitches this season. His contact rate his in the high 90's.
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AZ Phil on Saturday about Vogelbach playing a position:
I once thought that if Adam Dunn could play LF, then anybody could. Until I saw Dan Vogelbach. Not only do I not think he can play LF, he is also one of the worst defensive 1st basemen I have ever seen. And it's not because he doesn't work hard or something like that, because he does work hard. He simply has no defensive aptitude whatsoever
If there ever was a DH, it's Dan Vogelbach.
As I have said before, I firmly believe that the N. L. will adopt the DH as part of the new CBA in 2017. And once that happens, Vogelbach will have a position he can play in the National League.
He is a DH. Period.
So, in short, AZ Phil is convinced Vogelbach can not possibly play LF based on the way he plays 1B, not based on seeing him do any work in LF.
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Not exctly a Cub prospect, but does anyone have any idea on what has happened to Byron Buxton this year? After having been at the top of most prospect lists for a couple of years he now has a slash line of .180/.241/.300/.541 in AA ball after 50 AB. Is it just a small sample size, or tougher pitching at the AA level, some physical problem, some distraction or something else?
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Phil doesn't seem the only guy thinking a realistic chance the DH will come. I very much hope that's true. Where is that belief coming from? Has Manfred said something to suggest he supports that? I guess I don't understand why after 40 years without that seemingly even being seriously discussed or getting even remotely close to getting passed, why there is now the belief it will be changed.
I'm guessing that if the owners voted/wanted DH, the union would probably support doing that? Good for some careers. So this probably wouldn't be something that would be a strong leverage point?
There really aren't many DH-onlies, though, right? On the ESPN positional search for last year, it only lists like 4 guys as DH (Victor Martinez, Billy Butler, David Ortiz, Adam Dunn).
If the DH comes as soon as 2017, if Vogelbach keeps hitting well he could compete for that internally. But if the DH doesn't come, and given how few AL managers really use a single guy as an every-day DH, I don't think it would be easy to generate real serious trade value for a minor-league DH prospect.
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It likely wouldn't be a big point for the union. Like Craig said most AL teams are using it as a rotating position instead of having an exensive full time DH.
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Like Craig said most AL teams are using it as a rotating position instead of having an exensive full time DH.
Craig's comment did not seem to focus on an expensive full time DH (which a rookie would not be, nor would he be for at least a few years), but instead seemed to focus simply on whether teams have players who are exclusively DH.
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I took Craig's comment and expanded on it to explain why it wouldn't be a big point for the union and certainly something that they wouldn't give concessions to get. No $$$$$, the union doesn't care.
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What I have heard is that the Union wants a NL DH, but the NL owners do not. However, most of the owners want an IFA draft, and the Union is using it as a bargaining chip to get the DH. Many reporters feel that it is extremely likely for both to get through in the upcoming negotiations.
There are very few hitters that are so bad in the field that they can only DH. Whether or not Vogelbach fits this category, we shall see. But most managers have found that the DH allows them to "rest" a position player without doing without his bat, and use it to keep his better, (and older) players fresh. Plus, quite a few players seem to resent the idea that they have to be a full time DH.
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Didn't Wainwright tear his Achilles getting out of the batter's box? The Cardinals will be voting for the DH if so.
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Lots of subjects of interest to one side or the other are horse traded in bargaining. Union has always been pro-DH. Yeah, more so in years past when there more high-salary DH guys. Other somewhat related subject is a 26-man roster, which Union would love to have. Wonder if that might happen too. Union would give management some stuff to get that. Really good there is now a mature bargaining relationship to hammer this stuff out in a professional way.
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With 2 for 2 so far today, Gleybar Torres is hitting almost .300, with an OBA of over .400.
Even with no power, and taking into account the small sample size, that is pretty impressive for an 18 year old playing in full season A ball.
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And, age 18 all season. Torres doesn't turn 19 until December.
Torres had a bit of a downturn and then came right back up. Hope he keeps it up.
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Torres: 3-4, BB, K, 2 SB, PO
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_26_souafx_ftwafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Almora: 2-4, RBI, SB, K
Vogelbach: 1-4, RBI, 2 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_26_cngaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Iowa PP'nd
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Gleyber has one XBH this year, and a GB/AO ratio of like 8. For now, I think he's something of the Almora style; basically hit the ball up the middle. Guys can hit doubles down the line, but if you don't use either line, and mostly go up the middle, there are a lot of singles there but not so many doubles if you aren't strong enough to drive through the alleys.
Almora pulled a groundout to 3rd, and K'd, both kind of nice to see I think. His hits listed as line drive to center, and a fly to right. Two balls in the air, two hits. Not to jinx him, but I've still got a feeling he's going to hit a ball in the air to left this week. And I'm predicting he'll hit the ball to left in the air at least three times in May.
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Almora pulled a groundout to 3rd, and K'd, both kind of nice to see I think. His hits listed as line drive to center, and a fly to right. Two balls in the air, two hits. Not to jinx him, but I've still got a feeling he's going to hit a ball in the air to left this week. And I'm predicting he'll hit the ball to left in the air at least three times in May.
May of what year?
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Hannemann: 2-3
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_26_wswafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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May of what year?
What indication is there he was limiting his prediction to the May of a single year?
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Lots of subjects of interest to one side or the other are horse traded in bargaining. Union has always been pro-DH. Yeah, more so in years past when there more high-salary DH guys. Other somewhat related subject is a 26-man roster, which Union would love to have. Wonder if that might happen too. Union would give management some stuff to get that. Really good there is now a mature bargaining relationship to hammer this stuff out in a professional way.
International prospects and some fans might not agree.
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My guess is the union's motivation for NL-DH is pretty modest, not many dollars or constituents at stake there. So, they aren't going to concede much in order to get that. Maybe the international draft in exchange for DH would be a fair balance of value, but not sure that either side will concede the one to acquire the other.
Don't imagine the union cares a bit about the international draft. In principle you'd think they'd actually prefer that; if teams aren't able to spend $70 million on Montero, that's perhaps an extra $60 million available to spend on union members. So,in reality the union would probably actually be best served by instituting the draft. But, they know it's a leverage possibility, so obviously no point in giving it away when they can withhold it unless given some value.
I imagine when it comes down to it, the issues of more practical importance to the union are still the always issues:
1. luxury tax threshold
2. the magnitude of the compensation-pick price tag,
3. the free agency service-time cutoff
4. The super-2 cutoff.
5. 26th-man-on-roster.
6. Minimum wage
7. Drugs (reduced penalties, and a more permissive drug usage list)
Just as International draft really isn't something the union actually cares about, and they'd actually be benefitted if it was installed, my guess is the owners really wouldn't care about the 26th man. The 26th man on the roster would be a drop-in-the-bucket cost-wise. Does the ability to carry Matt Sczcur or to add Dallas Beeler to the roster make any real difference budget-wise? But every manager in baseball would like that, and in fact it would actually help admin in that it might make it less needful to pitch a guy with a tired arm who might incur increased injury-risk when pitching tired. The only reason to withhold the 26th man is changing the game relative to the history tradition, and withholding it so that you can use it for leverage with the union.
Seems like the issues are all relatively modest and negotiable; not like days past when there were worth-striking-over issues.
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From ArizonaPhil
E-MAN: I saw a lot of Stephen Bruno at Minor League Camp last month, in BP, fielding drills, baserunning drills, and games. He was with the Iowa squad until the last week, and then he was moved down to AA. But he easily could have started the season in AAA, and in a lot of other organizations, he would have.
As far as his skillset is concerned, he's OK defensively at 2nd base, but nothing special. I wouldn't compare him to D. J. Lemahieu. More like a younger version of Aaron Hill. Somebody like that. Bruno also doesn't have the skills required to play multiple-positions (he has a second-baseman's arm for one thing), and he has (at best) average speed, so I don't see him projected as a bench guy, either. His bat will have to carry him to big leagues because he will need to be an everyday 2nd baseman to play in MLB, and his glove isn't what will get him there.
So far so good, because he has been hitting like a maniac at AA.
I do believe Bruno will be an MLB second-baseman, I just don't think it will be with the Cubs. In fact, Bruno will probably be one of many current Cubs minor leaguers who will likely get traded, claimed off waivers, or selected in the Rule 5 Draft over the next couple or three years.
I would go further than that and predict that within five years the big leagues will be crawling with players drafted and signed by the Cubs, but most of them will be playing for other teams. The Cubs should be in a great position in July to package prospects for the "mssing link" (whatever that might be), even if they "overpay" to get that piece. But it won't matter if they overpay because for every player they trade, there are more coming along behind them.
The main thing is to correctly identify the players who will form the nucleus of the Cubs team over the next six years, and not trade any of them. In other words, you don't want to trade the next Lou Brock or Bill Madlock, but otherwise, everybody else should be available in a trade, because everybody else can be replaced by somebody else who is already in the system. The Cubs are that deep right now.
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My concerns about the 26th man is that it will result in many more LOOGY's than Sczurs
In theory, adding the DH could add 15 full time positions; however, in reality only a few of the AL DH's are full time DHs. Not sure how much of a salary bump it would provide.
Has anyone's view on the DH been swayed by Vogelbach's April? That rational part of me says that's ridiculous. However …
Ryan Williams is off to a great start in low-A, but should it be completely discounted because of his experience; he signed as a college senior last year? The non-sabermatician part of me says no he's getting a chance to start and that means the Cubs see something. One thing that hasn't changed since his college days is his tremendous K/W.
What happened to Lars Huijer?
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Lars Huijer retired from professional baseball and went back to college in The Netherlands...
https://yankeebiscuitfansdutchblog.wordpress.com/2015/03/29/lars-huijer-calls-it-a-professional-career/
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Thanks. … probably not the first to have second thoughts about a baseball career after pitching for High Desert.
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Can't trust a Dutchman anyway.
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He ain't Dutch. He's my brother.
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From CCO
According to Bruce Levine, Russell could be back in the Cubs’ pen within the next week to 10 days. If Levine is correct, the Cubs will have to clear a spot for him on the 40-man roster and on the active roster.
But I have it on good authority that Russell will not throw a pitch for the Cubs this season.
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I do apologize to all the posters here on this board that did not appreciate my post regarding Jes. I also would like to personally apolgize to Jes Beard himself for doing that. I was wrong for doing it-i admit it was in poor taste. It will not happen again and hope to keep my personal feelings in check in the future.
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Well said jacey1.
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That strikes me as a forced apology.
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Who forced it? And How?
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That strikes me as a forced apology.
I demand an apology, Jiggy!
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Im sorry.
I aint gonna get involved in it but I just dont see why we have to be nice to someone who's an arrogant dickhead to everyone.
It aint like it's Oldfan who Jacey talked junk about.
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Human decency?
I think the issues is the multiple attempts of posting articles about Jes's disbarment. I'm not sure of anyone on this board that doesn't know Jes's story. He doesn't hide behind a screen name, so a simple google search will give you all the info that you could want about it. If Jes causes that much frustration/anger in your life, just put him on ignore. No one responding to him or discussing him would likely be a bigger blow to his ego.
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I aint gonna get involved in it but I just dont see why we have to be nice to someone who's an arrogant dickhead to everyone.
No, but you'll sure as hell insert yourself in the situation, call jacey's apology forced, and then call jes a dickhead.
But you ain't gonna get involved, no sir.
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Schwarber gets hit in the head on a follow through; stays in, hits a long homer minutes later.
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I do apologize to all the posters here on this board that did not appreciate my post regarding Jes. I also would like to personally apolgize to Jes Beard himself for doing that. I was wrong for doing it-i admit it was in poor taste. It will not happen again and hope to keep my personal feelings in check in the future.
And here I am still left wondering what you posted....
Jacey, I have never once asked you not to post the swipes you have. To the extent they are true, they have never said anything about me that is not already known, and to the extent they are not true, well, they aren't true and I still am not concerned about it. The posts DO, however, tell us a great deal about you... and now that you have deleted that last one, we are denied the opportunity to see it.
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No, but you'll sure as hell insert yourself in the situation, call jacey's apology forced, and then call jes a dickhead.
But you ain't gonna get involved, no sir.
I guess to Dusty nothing quite says "dickehead" like taking his calls (plural) and providing (solicited) professional advice without charge, and offering to provide actual representation.
As with Jacey, Dusty's comments really do not bother. As when I was substitute teaching grade school kids and I would try to console someone crying about an insult from some other child on the playground or in class -- when one person insults another, we don't dreally know anything about the person who is insulted, the insult tells us nothing about them because we are almost always inclined to dismiss them since we have no idea whether there is any truth to them. We do, however, learn a good deal about the person who tosses the insult.
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My concerns about the 26th man is that it will result in many more LOOGY's than Sczurs
In theory, adding the DH could add 15 full time positions; however, in reality only a few of the AL DH's are full time DHs. Not sure how much of a salary bump it would provide.
Has anyone's view on the DH been swayed by Vogelbach's April? That rational part of me says that's ridiculous. However …
I'm 100% in favor of the NL adding the DH and Vogelbach's hot start has nothing to do with it.
I've talked about / bored many here with my reasons several times and will save them the bother now but will say that when the DH is added to the NL, it will give guys like Vogelbach and Schwarber a spot in the lineup without forcing a square peg into a round hole.
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I don't know what happened to Alcantara in a few months but he can't hit at Triple-A either.
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_27_iowaaa_cspaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Schwarber: 2-3, HR, RBI, BB, K, 4 SB Against
Almora left early.
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_27_cngaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Almora was injured on diving for a ball. He is OK, but may not play tomorrow.
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I don't know what happened to Alcantara in a few months but he can't hit at Triple-A either...
Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. Seems like once you go into a failure cycle, and lose your confidence, it's kind of tough. Although he did hit well in winter ball. I'm hoping that with time he'll work through it. I expect the same will apply for Baez, I'll be surprised if he doesn't struggle a whole lot at Iowa for quite a while before recovering some kind of productive equilibrium.
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Schwarber now on Vogelbach's heels for OPS leader in the SL.
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I don't know what happened to Alcantara in a few months but he can't hit at Triple-A either.
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_27_iowaaa_cspaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
18 AB
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That strikes me as a forced apology.
The apology was not forced and Jes, I have not deleted anything I have ever posted that was about you. I do agree with Jiggs that Jes is a dickhead. But I crossed the line (my personal line) and won't let it happen again
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Jacey, I believe I was the first to protest that article so let me be the first to say I appreciate your post. I am no Jes supporter here either. I had him on ignore for several years but that was too tedious so now I just scroll. I really appreciate the good characters we have on this board, many of whom have been around nearly 20 years together. Hopefully after Curt and Dave die off the board will be even better.
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Almora to the DL, Hannemann promoted to AA, Trey Martin promoted to A+
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I do apologize to all the posters here on this board that did not appreciate my post regarding Jes. I also would like to personally apolgize to Jes Beard himself for doing that.
Hard to accept (or reject) an apology when I don't know what it is for.
I have not deleted anything I have ever posted that was about you.
Really?
So where did it go? Where is it now?
The first responses to the post came in two successive posts on the afternoon of the 24th:
I think it is bad form to keep posting that. I am no big Jesbeard fan but I don't find it funny to keep throwing that in his face. We're better than that here at the BBF. Or at least I hope we are.
Not that Jes needs someone to protect him, but I'm sure everyone is well aware of what has happened. He is also the only person that posts with his full name, so it isn't like he is trying to hide anything. If you don't like him, just put him on ignore.
Edit: The posting of it is also as annoying as Jes can be at his worst.
But the last prior post from you in this thread was more than 24 hours earlier, was not directed to me, and mentioned nothing remotely related to me. In looking at all of your posts there is nothing there now which would fit the description of what would seem to be the post at issue.
So... what happened to it?
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I am no Jes supporter here either. I had him on ignore for several years but that was too tedious so now I just scroll.
Please... put me back on ignore again.
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Almora with a probable concussion.
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Too bad for Almora. DL in minors can be short, though. Hopefully a week and he's back.
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With a concussion, It will likely be at least a couple of weeks.
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It depends on the Cubs. This area has changed a lot over the last few years. At a minimum he has to be symptom free (headache, vision issues, nausea what ever he has) for 1 week before returning to activity. Some places are using a gradual reintroduction of activities to see if symptoms return or not for another week before giving a full release. If he is symptom free today it could be 1-2 weeks.
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Rub some dirt on it and walk off ya damb baby.
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Dirt is for cuts. Cold water is for when you get your bell rung.
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Perhaps you could have used that extra year in medical school.
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Medicine was come a long way from when Curt was kid and they where using mercury.
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Jacey, I believe I was the first to protest that article so let me be the first to say I appreciate your post. I am no Jes supporter here either. I had him on ignore for several years but that was too tedious so now I just scroll. I really appreciate the good characters we have on this board, many of whom have been around nearly 20 years together. Hopefully after Curt and Dave die off the board will be even better.
I future he's talking about Davep, but which Curt does he mean?
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CJ Wittman, from BP I think, tweeted out that Tseng was 92-93 with his fastball with some arm side run. 11-5 curve with bite that he got 2 Ks on. Fills out the strike zone. The velocity is impressive if he can maintain it.
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CJ Wittmann @CJWittJr 26m26 minutes ago
#Cubs Jen-Ho Tseng 92-93; small arm side -- filling up the zone. 2 K's on CB 76-80; 11/5 shape w/ bite and depth. Will miss bats.
Jordan Gorosh retweeted CJ Wittmann
Ya'll can worry about projection w Tseng-- I won't. He's got impressive stuff, feel for the mound, and can sequence
Jordan Gorosh @jgorosh 6m6 minutes ago
How much projectability do you need with 91-94 mph FB w command and two solid average secondaries? He'll add a fourth pitch too, I bet.
Alcantara tripled. Hangman hit a HR in his first AA AB. Schwarber another HR.
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Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. Seems like once you go into a failure cycle, and lose your confidence, it's kind of tough. Although he did hit well in winter ball. I'm hoping that with time he'll work through it. I expect the same will apply for Baez, I'll be surprised if he doesn't struggle a whole lot at Iowa for quite a while before recovering some kind of productive equilibrium.
HR and a triple today. Craig is losing his mojo. ;D
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Another awful outing for Stinnett.
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Schwarber's homer from last night.
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=92551583&sid=milb
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HR and a triple today. Craig is losing his mojo. ;D
I told you it would take a little while to work out of his slump. Today was the day, I guess! He's playing center. I think that might make some sense for him to practice a fair bit of center. Fowler is on an expiring contract, of course. And Fowler has a history of some lost games to injuries. If Alcantara could get some offense back, he might be a better in-case-of-Fowler-injury backup than Szczur or Denorfia?
Everybody has their hots-and-colds. One of the things that better hitters do is learn to extend the hots a little longer, and shorten the colds. Will be interesting to see how long Hannemann can sustain his current hot streak. For the moment, his combined OPS must be around .860 or so. Totally unlikely to sustain that, but kind of fun while it lasts.
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Schwarber's HR makes him 2nd in the league, for the moment.
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Torres: 1-4, 2B, RBI, K
Stinnett: 2-2-/3 -7-5-5-2-2
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_28_souafx_wmiafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Zagunis: 1-5, RBI, 4 K
Tseng: 5-3-1-1-0-2
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_28_myrafa_wilafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Alcantara: 2-4, 3B, HR, 2 RBI
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_28_iowaaa_cspaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Schwarber: 2-3, 2B, HR, SF, 3 RBI, K, Last 7 gms: 15-31, 3 2B, 3 HR, 11 RBI
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_28_cngaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Alcantara with his 2nd homer of the day.
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Alcantara with his 2nd homer of the day.
One from each side of the plate.
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As spectacular as Schwarber is doing in AA, a reminder that Soler in his 22 game stint at AA had a ridiculous .OPS of 1.355 (that's not to take anything away from Schwarber or even to make a comparison, just to point out that Soler's month in AA was incredible....).
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As spectacular as Schwarber is doing in AA, a reminder that Soler in his 22 game stint at AA had a ridiculous .OPS of 1.355 (that's not to take anything away from Schwarber or even to make a comparison, just to point out that Soler's month in AA was incredible....).
Schwarber is now 1.219 OPS.
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Iowa Gm 2:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_28_iowaaa_cspaaa_2&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Schwarber's homer tonight:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=93337483&topic_id=18601616&c_id=&sid=milb
Hannemann's homer:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=93327583&topic_id=18601616&c_id=&sid=milb
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James Russell: 11K/0BB/3 hits in 7.2 IP. Not sure how he's doing that. But he'd seem to be positioning himself for a possible recall, in case of injury, or if they wanted to release Jackson or Coke.
Rivero had his first 1-2-3 inning of the year, and his first 2-K inning. Hopefully he can get grooved in and become a desirable option sooner or later.
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Schwarber looks so comfortable at the plate -- it always looks like he's taking BP. Seems like a guy who will be pretty slump-proof.
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With the promotions of Bryant and Russell and Soler also on target to lose his prospect status, what does our top ten look like?
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Null is having a nice game so far.
My very rough top 10 would look something like this
1.) Schwarber
2.) Almora
3.) Torres
4.) Edwards
5.) McKinney
6.) Underwood
7.) Tseng
8.) Johnson
9.) Jimenez
10.) Stinnett
Just missed but could jump Stinnett if he continue to struggle. I would imagine the #9 pick would slot somewhere between #4-7.
Null
Vogelbach
Cease
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As I said earlier Jes, I have not deleted anything I have posted here about you or anything else. I don't even know how to delete my posts.
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Schwarber: 1-4, 2B, PB
Edwards: 2-3-2-2-2-1
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_29_cngaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 2-3, 3B, 2 RBI, BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_29_souafx_wmiafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Iowa off
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Jason McLeod on Schwarber:
“It’s been a great year of development for him. And this is no knock on anyone that was at Indiana but just what he had to do receiving wise to catch what we feel is at the Major League level in time, he’s worked his tail off. You see it every single day now. When he was in big league camp he was catching [Jake] Arrieta and all of those guys there. He’s got tremendous hands and he’s moving very well behind the plate. Last night he had a sub-2 throwing time on a runner down to second base. So the process has been great with him. I know I can speak for all of us in the organization, we feel very confident that he is going to be able to catch in the Major Leagues and be a force at the plate.”
Interesting how confident the brass seemingly is on Schwarber's future as a catcher. Hard to see why they'd be blowing smoke on that, so I guess that's the real internal dope. With all the work Schwarber has to do defensively, a testament to him that he continues to rake offensively. One would think the defensive work might affect his offense. Not so far, obviously. Hope it continues.
From a purely offensive standpoint, sure seems like he'll be ready to hit in big leagues in 2016. But, seems too much to ask that he can catch in big leagues in 2016 and you wouldn't think they'd bring him up just to have a role like Castillo has now. Got to play a lot.
Will be interesting to see if Cubs are as confident a year from now about his future as a catcher--if his bat is ready and there's a spot for him in LF. Talking serious delayed gratification there.
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Interesting how he singles out Arrieta as if he was the ace...
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Or, that Arrieta is the toughest to catch with the downward movement and all.
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Can we scrap the CJ Edwards bullpen thing yet?
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I wasn't aware that there WAS a Edwards bull pen thing, but what has happened to end it?
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I wasn't aware that there WAS a Edwards bull pen thing, but what has happened to end it?
Edwards is throwing harder out of the pen, but his control has gone missing in action. The change was a way to control his innings and possibly get him to Chicago this year, but he clearly hasn't adjusted well. Far too many walks, and far too many hittable pitches so far.
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Look, Cubs will try to develop Edwards as a starter but most likely scenario is that he'll be a reliever. Cubs are saying that the current situation is all about limiting his innings, but I think there is more to it than that. Would not take that at face value. Think there is a mixed motive: they also want to scout him as a reliever too.
That would not be terrible by any means. If the return for Garza turns out to be three stellar bullpen guys, that would be huge. Edwards-Ramirez-Grimm as long-term bullpen assets, in the aggregate, could be big part of a contending Cubs team for a bunch of seasons. Just hope all can stay healthy long-term. If you told me that all stay healthy as bullpen guys, would gladly give up notion of Edwards as a starter.
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Look, Cubs will try to develop Edwards as a starter but most likely scenario is that he'll be a reliever. Cubs are saying that the current situation is all about limiting his innings, but I think there is more to it than that. Would not take that at face value. Think there is a mixed motive: they also want to scout him as a reliever too.
If there is any actual reasoned basis for your belief, could you are it with us, or is it simply something you feel in your bones?
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If you told me that all stay healthy as bullpen guys, would gladly give up notion of Edwards as a starter.
That's fine, but why mess with it when he was having success as a starter? I had this same issue with them when they abruptly moved Cashner to the pen. Now Cashner is a very good starting pitching although he still has injury issues.
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Edwards is throwing harder out of the pen, but his control has gone missing in action. The change was a way to control his innings and possibly get him to Chicago this year, but he clearly hasn't adjusted well. Far too many walks, and far too many hittable pitches so far.
We might want to give him a little more than 9.2 innings before we draw conclusions.
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But like Jes, I don't understand how it became a foregone conclusion that Edwards has to end up in the pen.
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We might want to give him a little more than 9.2 innings before we draw conclusions.
Oh, but why wait?
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Dave- I say "most likely scenario" he's a reliever and your take on what I said is "forgone conclusion" he's a reliever. Really?
Think it's leaning in that direction. Edwards has now averaged 80 innings per season over his three years as a pro. Obviously, Cubs are treating him now with kid gloves---yes on occasion they have treated starters too with kid gloves but this a guy with a history of limited usage. As many scouts have noted, his stature is not conducive to throwing 200 innings. Preponderance of current evidence is that he's likely a reliever during his career, I think.
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Even "most likely scenario" is extremely questionable. He has had good success so far as a starter, and there is little reason to assume that that success can not continue.
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No quarrel that it's an open question. And not assuming anything one way or the other. Just think the available evidence is that a guy with this history and profile likely turns out to be a reliever. I get the contra position.
If he's a reliever, he's still valuable. The days of assuming pitchers with a good arm should nexessarily be developed as a starter are long gone. It's new era of power relievers and some guys just fit that role better in today's game.
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No quarrel that it's an open question. And not assuming anything one way or the other. Just think the available evidence is that a guy with this history and profile likely turns out to be a reliever. I get the contra position.
If he's a reliever, he's still valuable. The days of assuming pitchers with a good arm should nexessarily be developed as a starter are long gone. It's new era of power relievers and some guys just fit that role better in today's game.
My question was not about why YOU think he will be a reliever, but why you believe that is what the CUBS plan for him.
Cubs are saying that the current situation is all about limiting his innings, but I think there is more to it than that. Would not take that at face value. Think there is a mixed motive: they also want to scout him as a reliever too.
So, again, if there is any actual reasoned basis for your belief, could you share it with us, or is it simply something you feel in your bones?
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McKinney: 2-4
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_29_myrafa_wilafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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No quarrel that it's an open question. And not assuming anything one way or the other. Just think the available evidence is that a guy with this history and profile likely turns out to be a reliever. I get the contra position.
If he's a reliever, he's still valuable. The days of assuming pitchers with a good arm should nexessarily be developed as a starter are long gone. It's new era of power relievers and some guys just fit that role better in today's game.
Actually, I have no problems with Edwards as a reliever at all. I merely questioned why it was assumed that the Cubs were TRYING to make a reliever out of him. I see no reason at all to question their stated intention to keep him as a starter, long term. At the same time, I see no reason why 9.2 innings would prove that he CAN'T be a reliever.
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CJ Wittmann from Baseball Prospectus was at the Myrtle Beach game and tweeted this about Gerald Concepcion: "Cubs Concepcion worked around a BB. 92-94; Touched 95 and 96 last inning. Encouraging signs. Shows MLB LHRP profile." and "Cubs Gerardo Concepcion 92-94 T95(4x); downhill w/ small armside movement; working in-n-out. CB 77-79; shape w/ depth. Can see it a while."
Personally, I never really gave Concepcion another thought after his terrible debut year and mono etc. Lefties who can throw 95 (which Wittmann's shorthand seems to say he hit 4 times in one inning) are worth keeping around.
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That seems to be a step up from last year velocity wise. I thought last he was topping out 92-93, maybe 94. He pitched must better as the year went on in 2014. I he keeps this up getting him to AA won't be a bad idea.
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Here is what else he had to say.
CJ Wittmann @CJWittJr · Apr 28
Zagunis shows a compact swing. Lot of pre-swing movement and swing and miss within the zone. #cubs
CJ Wittmann @CJWittJr · 4h 4 hours ago
#Cubs Billy McKinney shows innate feel for contact. Ideal swing plane and above avg. bat speed. Gets beat presently inner third by +velo.
CJ Wittmann @CJWittJr · 4h 4 hours ago
#Cubs Victor Cartini 2.0-2.1 pops. Accuracy is a true strength; move well laterally. Bat lags behind.
CJ Wittmann @CJWittJr · 4h 4 hours ago
Mark Zagunis tracks one in LF and robs a HR. Reacted well and made an athletic play. #cubs
CJ Wittmann @CJWittJr · 4h 4 hours ago
#Cubs Jon Martinez 88-90 T91; limited plane. CH 80-84; replicates arm speed/fade SL 79-82; soft. Mixes well; generic org. arm.
CJ Wittmann @CJWittJr · 3h 3 hours ago
McKinney drills one off the pitcher. 4.32 to 1B. #Cubs
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Please note that I did not say the Cubs should move Edwards back to a starter's role. If he can successfully adjust to the bullpen, he could help the MLB team later this season. I'd give him at least another month or two in the pen.
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My impression was that they are starting him as a reliever to save innings for starting later in the year when he might be needed.
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Edwards is struggling now. I hope he is eventually used as a SP but I bet there is some logical reason the brass is wanting him used in a relief role for now.
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I think they gave the logical reason. It allows them to control and limit his innings.
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I think they gave the logical reason. It allows them to control and limit his innings.
And there you have it...and I don't disagree with the reasoning
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Gleyber having a 4-5 day with a double.
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Baez will be batting 3rd and playing second for the I Cubs today.
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I know, it's small sample. So anybody who doesn't like the bad results is naughty and immature and mockable. :)
But durability and starter/reliever is NOT the only question with Edwards.
The larger question is whether he'll have the control necessary to be effective in either/both role. Two years ago, his BB/9 was 3.2; didn't seem a problem; the projection was that control would be an asset, not a concern; and the expectation was that with more experience his control would improve as is normal for young pitchers who become successful major leaguers. But after his injury last year, his control was erratic for the rest of the year, and his BB/9 jumped to 4.2 BB/9. No sweat, it will get better, he's just recovering from the injury and the time off. Now this spring he's seemed wilder yet in camp, and now he's walking 9BB/9 in his current role. Sure, perhaps it's just a slump, and last summer was just because he was coming off injury, and this spring is just a single month or two, and for the next four months it will be 5:4:1 K/IP/BB.
But there aren't that many good major-leaguers who are having these recurring multi-walk innings where they can't even find the strike zone, much less locate on the corners. I'd like to see some progress in the command area.
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Think it's a fair point--and would add that front office seeing that--could be a factor is his current usage as a reliever. Much easier to "hide" (and take pressure off) a guy in the way Cubs are now using Edwards. As a starter, kind of obvious if a guy is leaving starts early because of poor command and running up pitch counts.
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Edwards is a long way from a sure thing, and I believe the question mark come from his lack of command, rather than his lack of durability.
Craig is right that his command has been less than adequate last year and this, and if he doesn't overcome it, he isn't going to be much better as a reliever than as a starter. And if the Cubs move him to relief, I believe that it will be because they worry about his injury history, rather than his ability to go deep into games.
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Gleyber having a 4-5 day with a double.
Bananas Torres!
Of his 4 hits, the game record include a line drive to left, a line drive to center, and a line drive to right. And a ground single up the middle. His GO/AO ratio is down below 7 now.
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After hannemann's nice debut game, and after going 9 games with 4 K's, he K'd four times yesterday.
Baez K's his first AB, but manages a grounder to Barney his second. He K'd 6 of 14 AB in Mesa. It's going to take a while, probably.
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Craig has a weird way of looking at things.
In the case of Baez, he has had two at bats, and only one of them was a strike out. If he can get lucky and ground out to the pitcher in his next at bat, he will have lowered his strike out rate for the year to below that of last year with the Cubs.
Baby steps.
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Bananas Baez doubles on his 3rd AB.
He's ready! Call him up! He's made his adjustments, this is now the real Baez!
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Bananas Baez doubles on his 3rd AB.
He's ready! Call him up! He's made his adjustments, this is now the real Baez!
Yeah, if he crushes the ball for next 2 1/2 months---we can say, great, you did it again just like 2014.
Think scouting reports will be more important than raw numbers--has his approach changed?
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Jon Gray's ERA is 10.70 after 4 starts. He's been BABIP unlucky, allowing 32 hits in 17 innings. He's allowed 10 hits in each of his last two starts, 3 innings and 5 inning starts.
Appel has a 4.0 ERA, with 11K/2HR/18IP.
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32 hits in 17 innings is not being BABIP unlucky. It is merely being bad.
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Gray's pitching in Albuquerque. I'd rather pitch in hell.
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Gray's pitching in Albuquerque. I'd rather pitch in hell.
Yeah, his stuff is breaking bad there.
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Yeah, if he crushes the ball for next 2 1/2 months---we can say, great, you did it again just like 2014.
Think scouting reports will be more important than raw numbers--has his approach changed?
Whoa. Me thinks Reb has soured a bit on Javy. ;)
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Yeah, his stuff is breaking bad there.
Leave that stuff to PlayTwo please.
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Whoa. Me thinks Reb has soured a bit on Javy. ;)
No, it's just that I won't know how to evaluate the numbers.
As I've posted numerous times, Baez put up huge numbers from mid-May to his early August call-up last season. If he does it again--same way, same appeoach--what does it mean?
Need scouting to evaluate what's going on.
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I think the front office feels the same way.
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Pierce Johnson not close to returning according to the Trib.
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Baez has K'd his last two times up, three overall now.
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Torrez: 6 IP, 2 R
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_30_myrafa_wilafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
South Bend:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_30_souafx_wmiafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Schwarber: 1-3, 2B, RBI, BB, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_30_tenaax_biraax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Alcantara: 1-6, K
Baez: 1-6, 2B, 3 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_04_30_okcaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Arizona Phil with a blurb about Scott Frazier:
A couple of the Cubs coaches told me over a year ago that they thought Frazier has the best pure stuff in the system. But then he apparently developed some kind of mental block the first Spring Training after he signed. BTW, he actually has the same type of problem with LH hitters that he does with RH hitters. It's just that he isn't as likely to hit a LH hitter.
He was working consistently 96-98 and then hit 99 with his last pitch in the intrasquad game last Thursday, and he was throwing in the upper 90's last Monday and again today. .
When he pitches in a game the other pitchers crowd around behind the screen to watch him throw, because none of the other pitchers down here can top 95.
It's not too much fun for the batter or the catcher though, because a lot his pitches short-hop the catcher or are thrown behind the batter or ten feet up on the back screen.
I don't think there is a more popular guy down here than Scott Frazier. Everybody wants him to get it back together.
Frazier also finished second (to Billy McKinney) in the HR Derby at Instructs last fall. He has outstanding HR power. He was a two-way player (RHP-OF) in high school, and he would sometimes DH on days he wasn't pitching at Pepperdine.
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Contreras is off to a nice start at AA. Any chance he has ML potential?
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Just tell Frazier to breathe through his left eyelid.
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Cubs Den has always been a fan of Contreras athleticism and he just needed to put it all together. At 22 if he can keep hitting he would be really interesting.
Robb, don't forget the ladies underwear.
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CF Fowler
RF Soler
1B Rizzo
3B Bryant
SS Castro
LF Coghlan
C Ross
P Lester
2B Russell
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The rose goes in the front, big guy.
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The rose goes in the front, big guy.
Ha!
Bull Durham is on right now on HBO. I've always thought it was overrated overall because of all the chick-flick elements wedged into what would be a solid baseball movie.
But the pure baseball scenes are gold.
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BA Hot Sheet:
2. Kyle Schwarber, c, Cubs
Kyle-Schwarber Team: Double-A Tennessee (Southern)
Age: 22
Why He’s Here: .381/.400/.857 (8-for-21), 4 R, 4 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBIs, 2 BB, 5 SO
The Scoop: It would be great if Schwarber can stick behind the plate, but if that doesn’t work out, his bat should play anywhere. The fourth overall pick in last year’s draft, Schwarber has a short, compact stroke, projecting as a plus hitter with the plate discipline to get on base at a high clip, along with plus power. We would call him a future middle-of-the-order hitter, but with Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler and Addison Russell, there are only so many spots to go around.
7. Gleyber Torres, ss, Cubs
Gleyber-Torres Team: low Class A South Bend (Midwest)
Age: 18
Why He’s Here: .550/.640/.750 (11-for-20), 5 R, 2 2B, 1 3B, 4 RBIs, 5 BB, 3 SO, 3-for-3 SB
The Scoop: During the draft next month, teams will pluck the top high school seniors from the U.S. Those players are the same age as Torres, who signed for $1.7 million out of Venezuela in 2013 and is already batting .352/.446/.423 in 20 games in the Midwest League. His ability to hit and control the strike zone are mature beyond his years.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/ba-today-correa-urias-gleyber-torres/
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Andrew (IL): If Torres was in this years draft would he be a 1-1 candidate? If he keeps this up do you see the Cubs being ultra aggressive and giving him a shot at Myrtle Beach or will his defense keep him in the MWL all year?
Ben Badler: Not that high, but he would be a first-round pick, probably in the upper half of the draft. He's a smart, savvy player for his age with very advanced instincts, a knack for hitting and control of the strike zone. The tools don't wow you, but he's a good prospect with a chance to play somewhere in the middle of the infield and be a table-setter type at the top of the lineup.
Davey "UC" LaMonica (Manchester, CT): Assuming Schwarber remains a Catcher, who has the most defensive upside between him, hedges & swihart?
Ben Badler: Defensively it's Hedges, Swihart, Schwarber. Flip that order if you're looking for offense.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1430493432
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7. Gleyber Torres, ss, Cubs
Gleyber-Torres Team: low Class A South Bend (Midwest)
Age: 18
Why He’s Here: .550/.640/.750 (11-for-20), 5 R, 2 2B, 1 3B, 4 RBIs, 5 BB, 3 SO, 3-for-3 SB
The Scoop: During the draft next month, teams will pluck the top high school seniors from the U.S. Those players are the same age as Torres, who signed for $1.7 million out of Venezuela in 2013 and is already batting .352/.446/.423 in 20 games in the Midwest League. His ability to hit and control the strike zone are mature beyond his years.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/ba-today-correa-urias-gleyber-torres/
If he keeps that up for the entire season, he mght have to be considered a serious prospect.
More seriously, unless emotional maturity is an issue, a batting line like .352/.446/.423 would seem likely to merit a promotion to Myrtle Beach by the end of July, if not earlier.
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I hope not. We are getting to the point where there is little to be gained by rushing a prospect, even if we think he can handle it.
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If Gleyber absolutely dominates over the next few months, they might consider a promotion. Otherwise, probably not.
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If Gleyber maintains his .463 BABIP all summer who knows? Heh heh, not much precedent for how development people handle guys with >.450 BABIP! If he had a boring .320 BABIP, he'd be hitting .243 and BA probably wouldn't be talking. But, obviously guys who have good balance, good pitch recognition, who use all fields (including left), and who hit line drives tend to have higher BABIP.
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If Gleyber absolutely dominates over the next few months, they might consider a promotion. Otherwise, probably not.
I would call a batting line of .352/.446/.423 absolutely dominating. Not saying I expect him to continue it, particularly if it is dependent on a BABIP of .463, but IF he does maintain a hitting line of .352/.446/.423 thru the end of July, then I don't think the front office would have to consider the possibility of promotion too long.
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ArizonaPhil
RHRP Justin Grimm (on the Cubs MLB 15-day DL with a forearm strain retroactive to April 2nd) worked the top of the 4th inning on Field #6 and was dominating, striking out the side on 12 pitches. He looks to be in mid-season form.
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That sounds like good news.
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Baez drops a throw from the pitcher in the 1st inning leading to two runs.
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yeah, but he hasn't struck out yet.
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Yet.....
I cant even hit with him on MLB 15 The Show and Im hitting .450 with Tommy Lastella 60 games into the season.
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Another error by Baez. Ugh
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Underwood: 5-3-3-1-4-6, 2 WP, HB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_01_myrafa_lynafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 2-5, 3B, RBI
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_01_ftwafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Schwarber: 0-2, 2 BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_01_tenaax_biraax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Garner really turned a corner this year.
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Baez: 0-4, K, 2 E
Alcantara: 1-4, 3B, 2 RBI, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_01_okcaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Schwarber's RBI double from Thursday:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=96470583&sid=milb
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CJ Edwards, now known as Carl, doesn't even seem to know why he's pitching in relief.
http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150501&content_id=121494768&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb
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Gleybor Torres highlights from recent days:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=96415983&sid=milb
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=95262183&sid=milb
He has a big leg kick when the pitch is delivered after starting his front foot on the toes. Then he takes a pretty big swing. Doesn't have the extra hitch Baez does but there seem to be similarities. At least he's direct to the ball, something I wish Baez would take note of.
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while checking the Myrtle Beach box, I happened to notice Clint Frazier for the other team. Two years ago we were including him in discussions for the pick that ended up Bryant. He was supposed to be a good power-hitter with a good swing. Two years later, it's May and he's sitting with 0 HR and 21K in 77AB, after 161 K last year. Scouts are smart and I respect scouting a lot. But it's a reminder how hard it is for even the best and smartest scouts to really know whether a HS hitter will actually be able to hit pro pitching. I know I know, it's only been a month, and the kid won't turn 21 until September, so maybe the gift of being able to hit will be discovered sometime later in his 20's. When we draft 9th, if we take a pitcher of course we know there's major risk; but if we take a HS bat, it's not like there won't major risk there too. Which is why the risk differential between pitcher-and-hitter is very different at #9 than it is at #2 or #4.
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In most years, anything after the 6th or 7th pick is a crap shoot. By that time, the best college hitters, which are the closest thing to a safe bet, are gone.
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Anything after the first pick is a crap shoot.
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Blackburn: 5 IP, 1 R
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_02_myrafa_lynafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 1-3, BB, SB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_02_ftwafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Alcantara: 2-3, RBI, 2 BB, SB, K, E
Baez: 1-4, 0 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_02_okcaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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It's all a crapshoot.
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Schwarber had been hitless until a minute ago when he homered in the 10th. He's also lined out twice.
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Schwarber: 1-5, HR, RBI, E, 4 SB against in 5 Attempts
Vogelbach: 3-4, 2B, 3B, RBI, BB, K
Black: 5-2/3 -6-4-3-2-10
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_02_tenaax_biraax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Schwarber's homers all go very, very far:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=99116383&sid=milb
Vogelbach's triple:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=99112983&sid=milb
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BTW, Schwarber and Vogelbach seem to have developed some kind of Bash Brothers celebration. Not sure if that's a positive or not....
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Anything after the first pick is a crap shoot.
Fixed.
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Too bad the video followed the ball. I wanted to see a fat guy run for a triple.
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From 1979 to 2011, there have been 33 first round number one draft picks.
Two of them (both pre 2005 picks) have not made the majors at all. Four more made it, but had negative WAR figures for their time in the majors. 2008 pick Tim Beckham has a WAR of only 0.2, but he is only 25, this is his first season to break with the major league team, and he is doing well this season. Gerrit Cole only has a WAR of 3.9, but he was only drafted in 2011, is only 24 and absent injury should be expected to seriously increase that number. Beyond that the lowest WAR figures for anyone taken first are pitchers Paul Wilson with a 2.2 and Luke Hochevar with a 2.5, and OFer Delmon Young with a 2.8. Next lowest is our own Shawn Dunston with an 11.5.
Perhaps the most disappointing number one pick ever is Danny Goodwin, picked first by the White Sox in 1971 out of high school, and then picked first again four years later by the Angels when he finished college... he he ended up with a WAR of -1.7, the lowest WAR of any number one pick.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=1&draft_type=junreg&
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The draft is certainly a crap shoot. But like in craps, the odds vary depending upon the situation. The odds of succeeding are much greater when trying to throw a soft eight than when trying to throw a hard eight.
I don't think that too many people would believe that the odds of getting an eventual productive major league player are much better in the first round than in the 40th round. And the odds of getting a star are much better with the first pick than with, for instance, the 30th pick.
The difference between the 9th pick and the 10th pick are probably statistically meaningless, but as the gap widens, probably so does the success rate.
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Risk:reward. The hard 8 pays better than the soft eight. But it's not the way to go in the long run.
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I don't think that too many people would believe that the odds of getting an eventual productive major league player are much better in the first round than in the 40th round. And the odds of getting a star are much better with the first pick than with, for instance, the 30th pick.
Really? You think most people believe the odds of getting an eventual productive major league player are not much better in the first round than in the 40th round?
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Really? You think most people believe the odds of getting an eventual productive major league player are not much better in the first round than in the 40th round?
Sorry. I got it backwards. I think the common wisdom would be that the higher you pick, the better chances are for success, especially when the picks are so far apart. On the other hand, I suspect most people would believe that the odds of the last pick as opposed to the second to the last pick are not significantly different.
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Rhe farther you get from the first pick the returns diminish quickly. The first and second picks are close in value.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/top-100-draft-flashback/
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Thanks, blue. That is one of the studies I remember reading.
Although with the value of the second pick being less than half of the first pick, I wouldn't really call that close.
But the study only covers 15 years, and with a sample size that small, one home run on the 9th pick can really skew the numbers. There was a study posted by someone (perhaps Craig) years ago that did it by rounds, and found that after the 15th round or so, all picks were about equal, except in the cases where substantial overslot (or overmarket) money was paid.
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They used a fit to the curve to smooth it out. I saw another study that the 3-7th picks have the same value as 8-15. 16-30 are half of 3-15. 31-60 is worth half of 15-30. >61 is basically has little value.
That is backed up by the Dodgers basically giving the Orioles $2 million for a competitive value pick.
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Baez has just hit his 1st HR of the season...
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McKinney with two home runs. Roach and Skulina each with one hit through 6 innings.
At some point soon, they have to be thinking of bringing up Roach to be fifth starter or swing man. Unless they feel that Wada is ready to take one of those roles.
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McKinney: 2 HR, 2 RBI, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_03_myrafa_lynafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 1-3, RBI, HBP
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_03_ftwafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Alcantara: 3-5, HR, 2 RBI
Baez: 2-5, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, K, E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_03_okcaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Some encouraging comments from Javier Baez and Brian Harper?
Bruce Miles retweeted
Tommy Birch @TommyBirch 9m9 minutes ago
Baez: “I’m working on some stuff and hopefully everything can keep coming back where it needs to be." #Cubs #PCL #MiLB
Bruce Miles retweeted
Tommy Birch @TommyBirch 5m5 minutes ago
I-#Cubs hitting coach Brian Harper on Baez: "He's slowing everything down. He's not overswinging." #MiLB #PCL
ChicagoCubsOnline retweeted
Tommy Birch @TommyBirch 4m4 minutes ago
Harper: "If Javy learns to put the ball in play more and be more consistent with his hitting, he's a big league superstar." #Cubs #MiLB
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One of Baez's AB's was changed, so he went 3-5. It is early, but he is K'ing less than 30%.
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Real early.
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Schwarber: 1-3, 2 BB, K
Vogelbach: 2-5, 2 K, E
Carl Edwards Jr :-\ : 2-0-0-0-0-2
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_03_tenaax_biraax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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When did we sign the NASCAR driver?
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Wow lots of nice outings. Alcantara, Baez, Edwards, Skulina, Pineyro, Roach, Williams, Schwarber, good for all of them.
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Carl Edwards seems to be a lot better than that CJ guy we used to have.
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Ryan Williams will be moving up soon, I suspect.
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Doesn't make much sense to bring Schwarber up this season. He needs more ABs and more time behind the plate. They might move him to Iowa if he keeps this up, but he won't see Chicago this season.
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If the Cubs are within shouting distance of a wildcard spot, Schwarber would be an awfully tempting left-handed bench bat in September, after rosters expand.
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Real early.
It is real early for the entire team, but that doesn't prevent the angst whenever they lose a game.
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BA's top prospect team for April:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/baseballist-april-prospect-team/
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If the Cubs are within shouting distance of a wildcard spot, Schwarber would be an awfully tempting left-handed bench bat in September, after rosters expand.
I think there is a real possibility they bring Schwarber up in September, whether they're in the race or not.
Once the minor league season is over, there's nothing to be lost by not having him catch every day in the major leagues. I think it would help his catching development some to be around Montero and Ross every day. I think it would help his offensive development to see some major league pitching and to talk with Mallee and Rizzo.
Also, Schwarber is so good that there's not much downside in starting his option clock early.
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I don't think that they are worried about his option clock. But they might be worried about starting his free agency clock early.
If by September they have decided that catching is not in his future, they may well bring him up. If they still see him as a catcher, I would be surprised if they did, unless they plan to leave him in the minors for the first part of 2016.
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If only...
"If Javy learns to put the ball in play more and be more consistent with his hitting, he's a big league superstar and it's that simple," Harper said.
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/sports/baseball/iowa-cubs/2015/05/03/iowa-cubs-javier-baez-oklahoma-city-dodgers/26846293/
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Baez' homer:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=100521183&sid=milb
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Torres triple from Friday:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=97980983&sid=milb
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Schwarber's now been credited with a line drive single to left on a play that was originally called an error in Sunday's game.
So he was 2-3, 2 BB, K
He and Vogelbach are still the only two players in the SL with an OPS north of 1.000.
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Schwarber now has 16 K's in 66 AB for a 24% rate.
Voglebach is even better with 14 Ks' in 82 AB, for a 17% rate.
Those are both very, very promising K rates, particularly when combined with their high walk rates (Schwarber at a 19.5% rate, and Vogelbach at a 15.5% rate), but their BABIP figures indicate that both of them are likely to do quite a bit of coming down to earth as the season progresses.
Schwarber also now has an unsustainable .422 BABIP, and Vogebach is at an even more unsustainable .431. Of course both could still show the kind of power to add HRs to offset a more realistic BABIP.
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Baez' homer:http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=100521183&sid=milb
Still lots of movement, but less.
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BURKS-TORRES-YOUNG at SBend is one helluva top of the order so far. And Ryan Williams has been damn near perfect so far. Nice
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Any chance Taylor Davis could make it as a backup in the bigs?
http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t451&player_id=543089#/career/R/hitting/2015/ALL
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Schwarber: 1-6, BB, 2 K
Vogelbach: 0-5, SF, RBI, BB, 3 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_04_tenaax_biraax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Vogelbach: 0-5, SF, RBI, BB, 3 K
Bum.
Trade him now before he loses value.
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Too late. All other teams have already seen the post.
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Well Baez just walked on 4 straight pitches. Not really sure how often that happens, so I guess that's progress.
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Well Baez just walked on 4 straight pitches. Not really sure how often that happens, so I guess that's progress.
Was he temporarily paralyzed?
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Stinnett: 5-7-2-2-1-5
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_04_swmafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
McKinney: 2-4, 3B, 3 RBI, BB
Tseng: 3-6-3-3-2-0
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_04_myrafa_lynafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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As Len Kasper predicted, Scuzur has left Iowa game early (and probably on way to StL).
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So when does McKinney pass Almora as a prospect
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Baez: 1-2, SB, BB, K, HBP
Alcantara: 1-4, 2B, BB, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_04_iowaaa_nasaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Was he temporarily paralyzed?
Ha! Well all of the pitches were well out of the strike zone. Of course, that hasn't necessarily stopped Baez before . . .
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He also snagged a line drive on a diving play, so he looked pretty good for the 3 1/2 innings I was out there tonight.
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That's good. I like his ceiling far more than Castro's so I'm rooting for him to make it.
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I like his ceiling far more than Castro's
You don't say.
I mean, I'm right there with you, but maybe the point is made.
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From McDaniel's chat, it made me laugh
Comment From Alex
Is Vogelbach kind of a potential Billy Butler type or is that wrong?
Kiley McDaniel: Bryant Reeves + Billy Butler = Dan Vogelbach, Big County Breakfast
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From today's Cubs Den Minor League report:
Javy Baez is showing some improvement early on at Iowa, reducing the strikeouts and showing a bit more discipline since his first game back, He walked and was hit by a pitch today but it was his single in the 3rd that was my favorite AB. He worked a 2-2 count, and was looking to go with the pitch, hitting a long foul ball down the RF line that may have been a HR had it stayed fair, then fighting a pitch off his hands and dumping it into RF for a single. With Javy, we measure his at-bats not by the quality of his HRs -- we know he can do that, but by the quality of his singles and ABs in general.
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I read somewhere that the HBP would have been ball 4 if it hadn't hit him.
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So when does McKinney pass Almora as a prospect
Last week.
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Jeremy Null 6 innings, 3 hits, 0 runs, 1 walk, 3 strike outs.
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Null's probably one of those guys who dominates A-ball and then you never hear from him again.
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Ever the optimist
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Null adds another hitless inning.
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We need to find a catcher named Void.
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Umps just called back an absolute bomb from Baez and threw him and the Iowa manager out of the game.
Tough luck for Baez. Ran a 3-0 count on Barry Zito, absolutely crushed a 3-2 pitch over the left field foul pole, umps originally called it a home run, and after conferring, called it back. Baez flew to the warning track on the next pitch and got himself thrown out.
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Ever the optimist
21-yo, 15th rounder with no previous hype who looks like a control artist. Why would anyone think otherwise?
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He added velocity after the Cubs drafted him?
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Sorry, I don't trust nondescript college pitchers putting up good numbers in Low-A.
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Vogelbach: 0-2, 2 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_05_tenaax_penaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
McKinney: 2B, 2 RBI
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_05_salafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
South Bend:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_05_swmafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Sorry, I don't trust nondescript college pitchers putting up good numbers in Low-A.
Can't really blame you for that, honestly.
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Alcantara: 0-5, 3 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_05_iowaaa_nasaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Almora was activated from the DL and is playing tonight (he had that whiplash-induced concussion after diving for a ball), and Geraldo Concepcion has been promoted to AA.
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Almora is so strong and refreshed after his layoff, he's bounced back with a line single, in the air, TO LEFT FIELD. And a flyout to right.
Frank Batista with a shutout through 5. Surprise member of the rotation in the first place, in a career with 20 starts before this year and over 200 relief appearances. 19/6 K/BB ratio, a 1.3ERA thus far (small sample, yada), and a 2.90 career ERA. I know he's not big or very fast, or probably have amazing stuff. But I wonder if a strike-thrower might not be an option for the bullpen at some point.
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Somebody tell Craig that Almora lined to LEFT FIELD for a single AGAIN in the 6th inning.
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Not me. Craig is too unstable to accept that kind of information.
I remember the time I told him that Nic Jackson had a home run, and he just about had a nervous breakdown.
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Tenn gm 1:
Schwarber: 0-1, 2 BB, PB (5)
Almora: 2-3
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_06_tenaax_penaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Myrtle Beach gm 1:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_06_salafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
South Bend:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_06_swmafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Almora, twice to left in the air in a single game! What is happening? That's a month's worth! I think his last air-ball to left was on opening day, right? (Or did he have one other flyout to left in mid-April?) Maybe if he plays once a month, or rests a week before games, he'll have enough adrenalin and strength to starting using the pull field? Put him on a 5-day rotation like a pitcher! Or, maybe a week off to think about month-one gave him some time to think about his game, and to review his spray chart, and the break gave him a chance to decide to try to hit to left once in a while?
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Having exhausted his daily quota of liners to the pull side in game one, Almora not in starting lineup for game two.
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Lost in the excitement in St Louis - Carl Edwards pitches one inning, striking out all three batters.
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Concepcion had a nice debut in AA too.
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Baez: 1-4, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_06_iowaaa_nasaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
McKinney: 2-2, 2B, RBI, BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_06_salafa_myrafa_2&t=g_box&sid=milb
Vogelbach: 3-4, 2B, 3 RBI, K
Edwards: 1-0-0-0-0-3
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_06_tenaax_penaax_2&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Vogelbach continues to be a beast.
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Tenn gm 1:
Schwarber: 0-1, 2 BB, PB (5)
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_06_tenaax_penaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Even before that one, Schwarber had more PB than any other entire team in the league. And Schwarber is only catching a little more than half of the Smokie games: 14 of 25.
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I'll be honest - a part of me would like to see the Schwarber-as-catcher experiment end. I still wonder if his offensive upside is peak period Lance Berkman. If the grind of catching knocks 30% off his production and shortens his career, I'm not sure I want to trade Berkman-type production for the big-bat-at-a-premium-defensive-position benefit, especially if his defensive ceiling is going to be a touch below major league average.
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With two balls hit to left field yesterday, Almora has now slipped his OPS up over the .700 mark. He's up to .705 now.
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I agree Jeff
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If Bryant, Soler, Russell, Baez and Schwarber hit like many think they will we can have a great defensive catcher
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I'll be honest - a part of me would like to see the Schwarber-as-catcher experiment end. I still wonder if his offensive upside is peak period Lance Berkman. If the grind of catching knocks 30% off his production and shortens his career, I'm not sure I want to trade Berkman-type production for the big-bat-at-a-premium-defensive-position benefit, especially if his defensive ceiling is going to be a touch below major league average.
I understand how you feel, Jeff. It all depends upon how we see him as a catcher, and how we see him as a left fielder.
The prototype bad catcher-good hitter in my mind is Piazza. I have no idea if he can catch as well as Piazza, but I don't think I would take a Berkman-like career over a Piazza-like career.
If course, the discussion is probably moot. Our true choice may be between a Harry Chiti or a Chris Coughlin career.
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but I don't think I would take a Berkman-like career over a Piazza-like career.
Outside of home runs, Berkman has the edge on Piazza in nearly every statistical category. We would be beyond lucky if Schwarber turned into Berkman.
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There is no question that we would be extremely lucky if Schwarber turned into Berkman. But the question is, would we be even luckier if Schwarber turned into Piazza. Given the difficulty of getting dominant offensive catchers, I think I would trade a Berkman in his prime for a Piazza in his prime.
I would rather have a Bench than either of the above, but that isn't on the table.
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Lance Berkman .293/.406/.537 wRC+ 144 wOBA .400 56.1 fWAR
Mike Piazza .308/.377/.545 wRC+ 140 wOBA .390 62.5 fWAR
You choose what would be better. I'd go with the catcher.
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Again, he isn't likely to be either. But given the difficulty of finding that type of offensive production from a catcher, compared with the relative ease of finding that type of offensive production out or a left fielder, I can understand why they are taking their time to make the decision.
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To me it doesn't matter where Schwarber plays if his defense is pedestrian or worse at either. Now, if he were a plus at both positions you'd want him to catch.
We're splitting hairs on Berkman and Piazza offensively, but Berkman had a slightly higher OPS+ and grounded into 90 fewer DPs. Also, Piazza is aided by having a hundred more intentional walks. Schwarber is showing that he's a line drive/fly ball hitter and more of a natural walk-drawer, so far, than Pizza was inclined to be which is why I'm more apt to go with a Berkman best case scenario comparison.
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Jeff, I totally get your thinking. One of the things with Berkman is that not only was he great, but he remained great for a long, long, long, long, long time. The wear on LF/1B's isn't that severe. But with the physical toll on catchers, there aren't many who last as long as Piazza did.
That said, for the moment I'd still like to stick with Schwarber at catcher until it's clear he can't handle it. For three reasons.
1. It's not like he's going to be a good left-fielder; he isn't built to run. So I think that IF you move him off catcher, he's sure to be mediocre at best defensively. Catcher may be the one position where he's least certain to be below-average?
2. He seems to have the personal qualities that are perfect for a catcher (if he can actually catch, block, frame, throw.) Tough, smart, good communicator, poised, a natural leader type. Seems to have the prototype catcher personality.
3. I'd also like to save LF for other future hitters. Once you put Schwarber there, it's unavailable. Maybe in time we'll want to move Bryant there? Maybe McKinney will just keep hitting and we'll love to have a pure balanced contact hitter in the lineup? Maybe Eloy Jiminez will emerge in time as a monster. Maybe we'll draft a HS bat next month, or next year, and the guy will become a serious hitter. If possible I'd like to save left for another really good hitter. If possible.
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McKinney lacks the fabulous BABIP that Vogelbach and Torres have. But he's leading the Carolina league in OBP, and is also somewhere in the top 6 in terms of average, slugging, and OPS. K/BB/HR of 11/12/3 in 82 AB.
Florida State League always had the reputation of pitchers-league, hard to hit HR's. What is the reputation for Myrtle Beach and the Carolina League? The league leader has only 4 HR, and the whole league has only one guy with a .900 OPS. So I'm guessing it may be a fairly pitcher-friendly league, even if not to the same extend as FSL?
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http://m.southbendtribune.com/sports/professional/sbcubs/teenager-torres-mature-beyond-years-for-cubs/article_76ce01e7-3a5c-5535-b5c5-5c8efa3d607a.html?mode=jqm
Torres piece. He's got 6 errors so far, in 25 games. He had 18 last summer in Arizona, I think, that was in 43 games? Progress.
Article says that in Null's 8-inning outing the other night, he threw only 76 pitches.
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Another thing to consider. I agree that catching is likely to shorten a player's career. But in this day and age, the likelihood of a player sticking with a team much beyond his free agent years is rather slim. If you are going to lose him in 7 to 9 years, you might as well get as much value as you can during the time you have him.
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If Schwarber doesn't catch, his natural position probably would be 1B, not LF, which of course isn't going to happen with Cubs.
Agree with Craig that Schwarber-as-LF not very appealing for defensive efficiency, as well as filling a spot that should remain flexible long-term for other guys---this is part of the argument for developing Bryant as a 3B too.
But, absent his catcher development experiment, seems like Schwarber would be on same development track as Bryant a year ago: move fom AA to AAA mid-season, open at Iowa for a couple weeks in 2016 to work in his base-running, and then a mid-April 2016 callup.
That scenario very unlikely to happen if catcher experiment stays firm. Think brass should reach a decision, if possible, by Mid-July of this season as to whether worth continuing catcher development. If not, seems like LF short-term is wide open for Schwarber April 2016.
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I agree that the front office is likely to make the decision on Schwarber as catcher by this year, although I think they will take the entire season to decide, unless he is so bad that they are able to decide by July. At this point, I don't think that passed balls are going to enter largely into the equation. That is one area that is fairly common for inexperienced catchers, and probably the most fixable. Pop times to second and blocking balls in the dirt are probably being looked at more closely.
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Somebody check on Craig. Almora hit another line drive to LF.
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Heh heh, I was just going to come over to post that! Man, what's gotten into that guy? Not to jinx him, but it just makes too much necessity sense. If he's a contact singles hitter, if they can shift the 3 outfielders to the right 60% of the outfield, they could shift him to death. Same if they Rizzo-shift him in the infield, . I doubt the really do that kind of scouting and shifting in the minors, but were he to reach the majors, he can't be successful without using the whole field. So, it really is good to see him taking some shots to left.
I wonder if it's just coincidence and he's already exhausted both his May and June quote for left-field hits. Or if maybe he thought about it, or they tinkered with his stance. In the few game clips I've seen this year and last, and in a spring-training clips that showed him taking several swings in the batting cage (with the board discussion focusing on his reduced leg kick), he starting with an open stance, then swung his hips and stepped and weight-shifted very decidedly toward right center. Perhaps a modest realignment in the box and a realignment in his normal stride could open up some of left field for him?
Next thing you know he'll hit a double or something.
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Next thing you know he'll hit a double or something.
(http://www.troll.me/images/asdasdasdasdasdasd/whoa-whoa-whoa-lets-not-get-crazy-change-this-text.jpg)
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McKinney has walked 4 times tonight.
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McKinney has walked 4 times tonight.
This is definitely a different Cubs farm system from the one we are familiar with.
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Baez is having a rough night. 3 K's already.
Probably got lucky he didn't get thrown out of the game again after his 3rd K.
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Lost cause.....
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McKinney hit a walk-off homer in the 10th.
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I guess one thing I don't understand about Baez is why the Cubs haven't tried to get him to slow down his swing a bit. Every time he's up there, he's swinging out of his shoes. He has plenty enough power and bat speed to still be plenty powerful if he ever quieted down his swing some.
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I think they are trying and he does it in the batting cage. Getting him to do it in a game is different.
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I guess one thing I don't understand about Baez is why the Cubs haven't tried to get him to slow down his swing a bit. Every time he's up there, he's swinging out of his shoes. He has plenty enough power and bat speed to still be plenty powerful if he ever quieted down his swing some.
I assume the Cubs have tried to do that. In fact the last report I saw was that he was trying to do that. But even if he is, it should not be a surprise that this is a difficult adjustment when he's been doing nothing but swinging as hard as he can forever up to now.
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McKinney is going to be a really good major league baseball player
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Alcantara: 1-4, HR, 2 RBI, BB, 2 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_07_iowaaa_nasaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 1-4, BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_07_souafx_bgrafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Black: 5-4-3-3-4-7, 2 WP, HB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_07_tenaax_penaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
McKinney: HR, RBI, 4 BB
Underwood: 7-3-1-1-1-4
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_07_salafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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I think they are trying and he does it in the batting cage. Getting him to do it in a game is different.
I assume the Cubs have tried to do that. In fact the last report I saw was that he was trying to do that. But even if he is, it should not be a surprise that this is a difficult adjustment when he's been doing nothing but swinging as hard as he can forever up to now.
Yeah I think those are good points.
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Burks has a high K rate, but nonetheless has an OBP over .400. Potential?
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Alcantara iso at .300 but, of course, still high Ks.
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I assume the Cubs have tried to do that. In fact the last report I saw was that he was trying to do that. But even if he is, it should not be a surprise that this is a difficult adjustment when he's been doing nothing but swinging as hard as he can forever up to now.
This is the 5th year the Cubs have had Baez under their direction. If it's true that Baez has been doing nothing but swinging as hard as he can forever up to now, it seems weird that in three full seasons Theo's guys never thought to suggest he tone it down and that it would cause problems in AAA and beyond? Some possibilities:
1. It isn't quite true. He has tried to tone things down at times in past.
2. Theo's guys aren't as smart as we'd like them to be.
3. Maybe they told him/encouraged him to make adjustments, but he was too stubborn?
4. They thought he'd kind of naturally figure it out on his own, but he didn't until lately?
Whether it's them being too dumb or incapable of suggesting appropriate corrections, or him being too stubborn to listen, neither one is really all that super encouraging.
It may also be that the message "you don't have to swing that hard, you'll hit them out anyway" might not actually be true? He went all winter without hitting many (any?) HR's. Spring training one HR? Thus far he's got just one HR, and the other day flew out to the track. Maybe he gets a rare pitch that he can recognize and drive, but ends up just flying out doing it the "tone-it-down" way, and he figures he needs to swing a lot harder again?
But yeah, hopefully over time he'll get more accomplished and effective, and will be able to slow things down and translate BP into games.
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The #2 OPS guy in the Carolina league was promoted a week ago, and will drop off the leader board shortly. (Was 23). The #2 guy actually in the league is more than 50 points behind McKinney in OPS. McKinney is the only guy in the league above .900. Nobody within .100 OPS points of him is less than 23 years old.
I think he's due for a slump. It's an up-and-down season, he's up for the moment, he's due to go down.
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2. Theo's guys aren't as smart as we'd like them to be..
Utter sacrilege.
YOU, Craig, are going to burn in hell.
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Almora's little visit to .700 OPS was fun while it lasted, but concluded after one night. Will he revisit that mighty mountain again? It's not impossible! Stay tuned for the next exiting episode!
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Any reports on Nic Jackson. Or have you even managed to drive him out of his job at the Fargo Farmboys?
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You are one sick individual Craig.
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Any reports on Nic Jackson. Or have you even managed to drive him out of his job at the Fargo Farmboys?
Actually, I think NIc may be retiring this season. The Fargo Redhawks haven't started yet, so I'm not sure if he's going to give it another go. But after being a mainstay for years on successful Redhawks teams, last year was a down year for him. He might be done. He's been a class act and a very popular player here.
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The website doesn't have him listed on their roster for 2015. Austin Kirk is on the roster.
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Don't blame him for retiring. That long Fargo season from Flag Day to Fourth of July is brutal.
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Yes, correct, I'd heard that they'd signed Kirk. He might do pretty well at this level.
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Good thing I got this when I did...
[attachment deleted by admin]
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Don't blame him for retiring. That long Fargo season from Flag Day to Fourth of July is brutal.
It isn't so bad, except on the days it snows.
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He's been a class act and a very popular player here.
It took 15 years, but finally craig has something nice to say about Nitro Nic.
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McKinney: 3-5, 2 2B, 2 RBI, Assist
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_08_myrafa_wswafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Clifton: 5-2-2-2-2-5
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_08_souafx_bgrafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Baez: 1-3, RBI, SB, BB, 0 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_08_cspaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Pineyro: 7-6-3-3-0-10
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_08_tenaax_penaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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McKinney: 3-5, 2 2B, 2 RBI, Assist
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_08_myrafa_wswafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Nice as it is to see McKinney with a slash line of .330/.439/.545/.985 the rest of that lineup is a bit disappointing. Carhart (25), Trey Martin (22), and Cartini (22 in August) have all at different times been thought of prospects worth following, not close to sure things, but prospects with some actual chance. The three of them have the follwoig respective slash lines: .191/.291/.404/.695; .222/.236/.315/.551; .203/.263/.243/.506.
At least Zagunis on that team is not too disappointing: .281/ .417/.407/.824
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_08_tenaax_penaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Neither Shwarber nor Vogelbach playing?
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Billy McKinney is going to be the prospect teams ask about come July when Jed/Theo tell them not to bother asking about guys in the Majors or Kyle Schwarber.
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Yeah, think you're right about that.
Oddly, McKinney has played in all three fast-A leagues, thanks to the trade and Cubs moving to Carolina Leagie in 2015.
Guessing, at this pace, a promotion to AA might be coming soon.
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McKinney's homer and perhaps the most anti-climactic home run call ever.
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=105998483&sid=milb
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McKinney looks very quiet in the box.
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McKinney's homer and perhaps the most anti-climactic home run call ever.
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=105998483&sid=milb
Talk about giving up on a ball too early. "I don't think that one's too deep... and it's GONE!"
Man, that's right out of the Chip Caray book of bad baseball calls.
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South Bend:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_09_souafx_bgrafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
McKinney: 2-3, K
Tseng: 3-2/3 IP, 4 R, 4 BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_09_myrafa_wswafa_2&t=g_box&sid=milb
McKinney: 0-4, SF, RBI, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_09_myrafa_wswafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Baez: 0-5, 2 K, E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_09_cspaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Edwards: 2-2-1-1-0-4, HR
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_09_tenaax_penaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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From what he posted on Twitter it sounds like Rob Zastryzny injured his foot and will be out for a bit.
Baez had a nice game. 2/3, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 1K. Riverio had a solid outing too.
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Nice to see Riverio and Edwards sequencing some effective outings.
Nice to see Baez getting on. One of the two hits was an infielder.
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With Baez I'm more concerned with K/BB than anything else. If the K/BB fall into line everything else will come.
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If you look at Baez's career thus far it is disturbingly similar to Corey Patterson's. Excellent success at lower levels, strong success at AA. Baez had more success in AAA mostly due to home runs. Both had BB/K warning signs even when producing. Both struggled mightily their first go rounds in the majors.
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Baez's production at every level of the minors dwarfed Patterson's production in the minors.
If Patterson played now a OF that can steal 30 bases, plays plus defense and had 3 seasons of .750+ OPS would be an All-Star. He had a 5 fWAR season with the Cubs as well as a 2.5 fWAR season in 83 games. With the Orioles he had a 3.8 fWAR season. If Baez can do that I would be really happy.
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If you look at Baez's career thus far it is disturbingly similar to Corey Patterson's. Excellent success at lower levels, strong success at AA. Baez had more success in AAA mostly due to home runs. Both had BB/K warning signs even when producing. Both struggled mightily their first go rounds in the majors.
Of course much of that can also be said of many highly successful players, such as Rizzo and Schmidt, and at least Schmidt turned out okay.
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Baez's production at every level of the minors dwarfed Patterson's production in the minors.
Not sure how you figure that. Their numbers in the Midwest League were extremely similar and at AA were also very similar save for home runs which I mentioned in my post. Patterson had better walk and strikeout rates in AA.
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Of course much of that can also be said of many highly successful players, such as Rizzo
Rizzo controlled the zone far better than Patterson or Baez, and was solid at lower levels before exploding in Triple-A. He doesn't work at all in this comparison.
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Not sure how you figure that. Their numbers in the Midwest League were extremely similar and at AA were also very similar save for home runs which I mentioned in my post. Patterson had better walk and strikeout rates in AA.
So let's ignore the thing that makes Baez special?
How many HR make up the 154 OPS difference in AA or the 139 OPS difference in AAA?
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The difference is almost entirely in home runs. And yes, Baez has been more of a home run hitter, but is that going to matter in the long run if his weaknesses, which are similar to Patterson's, aren't corrected?
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I still believe Javy's a big leaguer but instead of Giancarlo Stanton like some here claimed Im thinking more along the lines of Dan Uggla or Mark Reynolds.
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Mark Reynolds with plus defense in the middle of the infield would be an incredibly useful player.
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McKinney: 2-4, 3B, RBI, BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_10_myrafa_wswafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Alcantara: 1-5, 3B, RBI, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_10_cspaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
South Bend and Tennessee off.
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The difference is almost entirely in home runs. And yes, Baez has been more of a home run hitter, but is that going to matter in the long run if his weaknesses, which are similar to Patterson's, aren't corrected?
So Baez did outperform Patterson then? HR hitters will strike out more often then not. The key for Baez is getting the strike out to an acceptable level. Patterson wasn't a bust in that he didn't become a useful MLB player, he had 7.5 fWAR for the Cubs in a 1 1/2 season stretch. He is considered a bust because he couldn't maintain it. He struck out under 25% of PA every season in the majors except 2000 in 47 PA. His problem was BABIP , couldn't maintain his powe and swinging at pitches outside the zone. In the zone Patterson made plenty of contact. Baez does not equal Patterson at all.
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A good-fielding middle infielder that hits like Mark Reynolds would indeed be a valuable player. And it is beginning to look as if that is the best we can hope for with Baez.
What worries me more is that Soler, Bryant and Russell are all carrying strike out rates quite close to that of Baez had last year. I believe that they will improve, but there is a realistic possibility that they will also end up as good-fielding players similar to Reynolds. The team can live with one or two, but it is hard to imagine a team with 4 guys striking out 200 times per year, regardless of how many home runs they hit.
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Soler if he can stop swinging at out of the zone sliders should improve his K%. Russell should improve with time too. Bryant is always going to K and BB a lot.
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His problem was BABIP , couldn't maintain his powe and swinging at pitches outside the zone. In the zone Patterson made plenty of contact. Baez does not equal Patterson at all.
I saw most of Patterson's at-bats and he swung through a ton of pitches in the zone. Regardless, I never said they "equal" each other. I said their pattern through the minors were similar and they are for the most part.
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Zagunis and McKinney are both making a strong case to move to AA. Who will advance first, and when?
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Zone Contact% Outside Zone Swing% Contact%
2002 81.9% 27.1% 73.5%
2003 84.1% 32.9% 72.7%
2004 78.7% 23.6% 71.5%
2005 82.5% 30.2% 72.8%
2006 87.1% 37.5% 77.7%
2007 86.3% 44.8% 79.9%
2008 89.8% 36.8% 81.3%
2010 87% 37.9% 75.5%
2011 87.4% 37.4% 77.1%
I'll give you 1 guess at which two numbers are usually within 5% of league average and which one is always greater than 10% difference of league average.
Baez OPS A Ball .979 2012
Baez OPS A+ .873 2013
Baez OPS AA Ball .984 2013
BAez OPS AAA .833 2014
Patterson .949 to .829 to .694. I'm not sure how that looks in any way similar.
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Zagunis and McKinney are both making a strong case to move to AA. Who will advance first, and when?
I would think that McKinney would be advanced first, probably by June if Hannemann doesn't pick things up soon. I suspect that Zagunis will be in A ball most of the season, perhaps getting moved up for the last couple weeks of the season.
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Zagunis is 1 1/2 years older, but McKinney has more pro experience.
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The OPS differences are down to homers; we've been over that. There are still similarities in their progression with the exception of AAA. And both struggled early in the majors. I don't know why you think otherwise. Mike Olt hit some homers in AA; anyone think he's apt to be successful at this point?
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And McKinney is dominating, while Zagunis is holding his own.
And I think the assumption that the Cubs have given up on the idea of Zagunis at catcher is unfounded. With Amaya, Carhart and Mulave, they moved them to the field for a year while they worked on offense, and then moved them back to catcher. They might have the same thing in mind for Zagunis.
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The OPS differences are down to homers; we've been over that. There are still similarities in their progression with the exception of AAA. And both struggled early in the majors. I don't know why you think otherwise. Mike Olt hit some homers in AA; anyone think he's apt to be successful at this point?
So Patterson gets worse at every level and Baez bounces between a 800-900 OPS at every level and that is a similar progression? A lot of Bryant's OPS comes from hitting HR. Hitting HR is a pretty valuable skill, I'm not sure why you want to think it should be ignored? Olt also hit HR at the major league level. It is a skill that translates. I'm not saying Baez is without issues and the K/BB is HUGE for him. I just saying he has zero in common with Corey Patterson. They aren't similar at all.
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Patterson jumped High-A and had a solid season in AA. Wasn't as strong as his MWL performance but I don't think most people would consider that season a regression or disappointment. It was AAA where his numbers fell off.
Olt also hit HR at the major league level. It is a skill that translates.
And yet was so bad at hitting overall that he wasn't an effective player and has little chance at the moment of being a starter on any team. Nobody cares about that skill when you hit .160 and strikeout 45% of your at-bats.
A lot of Bryant's OPS comes from hitting HR.
Kris Bryant hit .327 in the minors with a nice amount of walks. Lots of homers but the ability to hit and understand the zone too.
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At what level did Baez's number's fall off? His AAA OPS was within 40 points of his A+ OPS.
When did I imply that Baez K% wasn't an issue? Patterson never had a K% over 25% in the majors with more than 50 PA. Striking out wasn't his problem. Patterson had a whole different problem than Baez. Baez has for more in common with Junior Lake than Patterson.
If Baez had Patterson's highest K% in the majors he would be Mike Trout good.
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I didn't say Baez' numbers fell off, I said Patterson's did at AAA. That is a difference between the two and I never said there were NO differences in their paths.
Striking out wasn't his problem.
Time sure does change perception because Patterson's K's were a huge issue and point of consternation when he was playing. And that was before everyone had a bullpen full of killer arms.
Lake may have similar strikezone issues as Baez but his career minor league OPS is .731 and his high in homers is 12. You don't like the comparison with Patterson due to homers yet this is an even bigger differential.
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McKinney: 2-4, SF, 3 RBI
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_11_myrafa_wswafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Baez: 1-3, RBI, SB, 2 BB, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_11_cspaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Yeah, Baez issues are different than Patterson issues but don't think any of stats cited above really get you there.
Major league pitchers eventually learned that Patterson struggled with balls on outer part of the plate and, when he started to cheat a bit, he had a lot of trouble handling the curve. Think that was one bridge too far for him. Around 2004, lots of trouble with the curve. So, with Patterson, just a matter of dealing (unsuccessfully) with holes--pretty common problem around baseball. Don't really know until get to majors and some guys it takes a lot of ABs.
With Baez, he didn't hit much of anything during his call-up, but seems his problems are more about approach than dealing with holes--not classic-type holes a la Patterson--at least at this point in his career. and, let's be clear: Baez has murdered minor league pitching everywhere up to now. (Have posted at least four times his 2014 AAA stats from mid-May to his call-up. Look it up).
Let's compare Baez to Rizzo. Rizzo struggled mightily early and changed his approach radically to now. In boxing terms, Rizzo is like Floyd Mayweather. Both these guys know what the other guy is trying to do to them and make whatever adjustments in their craft that are necessary to not get hit (Mayweather) or, in Rizzo's case, to hit. So, Rizzo moved up on the plate, learned how to shorten his swing on balls on the inner half, learned to handle the pitch on outer half, learned to deal with lefties, and adjusts beautifully to the count and game situation. Hitting as craft.
Baez basically seems oblivious to all of the above. He fights the same way every AB and against every opponent. Pitchers with craft and a repertoire knock him out. If you watched the HBO main event last Saturday, you saw an all-out talented puncher James Kirkland fight Canelo Alvarez, a young fighter with craft and power. Baez is James Kirkland--who got knocked out by Alvarez.
If Baez learns something about craft of hitting, think he will be really good. Guessing he will not show basic insurmountable holes, like Patterson did, but has to learn to protect his chin, so to speak. Not every pitch or situation is the same. Seems kind of basic but young and talented sometimes means stupid, in baseball terms. Think mental part of the game drove Josh Vitters to baseball oblivion and some guys either have it or don't have it when it comes to figuring things out and making adjustments.
Optimistic about Baez because he has very good instincts in other phases of game and still showed very good face during his struggles in majors last season. These characteristics are a big plus for him. If had to guess, think he will progress. Still think he has a decent chance to be a monster or, at least, a very good player for his position. But, has low floor, obviously.
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I didn't say Baez' numbers fell off, I said Patterson's did at AAA. That is a difference between the two and I never said there were NO differences in their paths.
Time sure does change perception because Patterson's K's were a huge issue and point of consternation when he was playing. And that was before everyone had a bullpen full of killer arms.
Lake may have similar strikezone issues as Baez but his career minor league OPS is .731 and his high in homers is 12. You don't like the comparison with Patterson due to homers yet this is an even bigger differential.
Patterson's career K% is 20.7%. The NL average was 17-18.4% from 2000-2010. He struck out more, put it wasn't horrific.
Lake's issues is an over aggressive approach and swing and miss, much like Baez. If Baez had a contact percentage in the 70's like Patterson...
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Zagunis is now 4th in the league in OPS. Cubs have 3 of the top 4. (Jacob Rogers is 3rd).
Compared to the 16-team Midwest League, and the 12-team Florida State League, it's a lot easier in an 8-team league. Should be easier to get more names and scouting reports on the "League Top 20" there!
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McKinney now has 667 plate appearances at the fast-A level.
Even given that he will still be only 20 for almost entire minor league season, seems like has had plenty of seasoning at that level.
One factor is who gets ABs taken away when he moves up to AA. Maybe they are considering switching him with Hanneman, returning to fast-A, and are reluctant to do that. Of course, there are other alternatives but one thing affects another thing.
Still, seems time to move up McKinney.
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Baez only one K today, and that was taking. At least three of his recent K's have been called. I'd like to think that's good, reflects growing discipline, and that it will pay off long-term eventually.
Hopefully sooner or later the patient Baez (and Almora) will more frequently find some pitches they can drive and will drive them.
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All right, Baez is taking more strikes. But can he hit fly balls to left like Almora?
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Stinnett: 5-7-4-4-4-3, 2 HB, WP
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_11_lanafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Vogelbach: 1-2, HR, RBI, 2 BB, K, E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_11_monaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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All right, Baez is taking more strikes. But can he hit fly balls to left like Almora?
No joke, that's really the question. Can he find some pitches he can drive and drive them? Hitting lots of grounders to 2nd won't do it, even if he both keeps his K's down and take some walks. Lets see some power.
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Michael Jensen is 10K/0BB over his last 4 relief outings. He's allowed 1 run thus far this year. Not sure how hard he throws, doubt he's the power arm reb wants. But, he might be a good pitcher. Not sure there isn't a place for a relief *pitcher* who maybe throws only 90-95.
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Cubs Den has said he throws mid-90's in relief.
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.....Not sure there isn't a place for a relief *pitcher* who maybe throws only 90-95.
Big difference between working at 90 and working at 95 for a reliever.
Not too many relievers these days not working at least at 90. That's chump change.
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He's definitely 90 and beyond. But whether he's consistently 95, with command (pitching), as opposed to "touching" 95 once in a while but mostly working more 91-93, that I wonder. Maybe CubsDen is saying that he can locate 95 consistently? if so not even the average big-league RH reliever does that. But if his average is 91.7, while touching an occasional 95, that's somewhat below average. The fast ones are touching well above 95, and averaging 93+. My uninformed guess is that on average Jensen is not above average, or if so not by much; and that there's a fair chance that he's a little below average.
But, the "average" bar for big-league relievers is very high. I suspect that a guy can have 40th percentile velocity, but still be quite useful *if* he can locate a modest-velocity 92-93 fastball consistently, *and* mix that with a good slider.
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You want a deep, deep sleeper as a reliever? How about Michael Jensen? He has two swing and miss pitches, a big breaking curve and a fastball that touches 96 -- and a starter's feel to go with it. The only thing keeping Jensen in the bullpen, in my opinion, are past arm injuries and a desire to keep him healthy. He has adapted well to the new role and this year he has a 0.93 ERA with 10 Ks in 9.2 IP after a scoreless 2 inning performance yesterday. The only negative is the 6 walks.
Black and Edwards were in the spotlight but it was a sleeper, Michael Jensen, who got the win. Jensen was a promising starter before an injury following the 2012 season sidelined him for all of 2013. He came back as a reliever last year and had his moments at Daytona, but he has looked even better at Tennessee, flashing a mid 90s FB and a good curve to go with his good feel for pitching. Jensen pitched 2 scoreless innings and struck out 2.
My guess is he's more 92-94 in short spurts. That would be plenty of velocity.
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As Schlitter has shown, velocity can be highly overrated.
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Schlitter threw 88% fastballs this season.
Even the purported Human Chapman throws only 80%.
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Well, when you have that unhittable slider you should probably use it.
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...My guess is he's more 92-94 in short spurts. That would be plenty of velocity.
Exactly. Plenty of velocity to be effective, for a good pitcher. 92-94 located and mixed with a swing-and-miss breaking ball, that's more than enough to be very effective. But relative to other big-league RH relievers, 92-94 is certainly not uncommonly fast, that's pretty run-of-the-mill. It's not at all like he's too soft to take seriously, that's plenty sufficient. But its hardly overpower or anything. As with so many pitchers who throw well into the 90's, it still comes down to pitching and command, and the secondary pitches. Not going to be a reliable, consistent reliever if he needs to throw a 92-94 fastball 80% of the time.
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Anyone notice that Marmol is trying to make a comeback with the Indians?
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Who do we think will be the first non-first-rounder drafted by the Epstein regime to contribute to the big league club?
That's the sort of thing that we need to see before we can truly say that we have an elite farm system, not just one that's talent-laden because of a combination of high draft picks, good trades, and luck.
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That's a good question, Jeff. At present Underwood, 6th pick of the 2nd round, looks like the best candidate. The 2012 draft looks like it's pretty much washed out after Almora/Johnson/Underwood, although guys like Radenmacher, Crawford, Bruno, McNeil, and Conway are still in the system.
Two years ago, Zastryzny, Hannemann, Skulina, Masek, Frazier, Wilson doesn't look like the "stock up on college pitchers" approach is going to product much there, either. Trevor Clifton seems like the most interesting guy left there, although pitchers can turn things around sometimes, and you might still get a reliever out of Skulina or Garner. But the Zastryzny/Hannemann/Skulina run at 2-3-4 looks ineffective.
Last year looks more interesting, and Stinnett still has stuff and time. But the early results with Stinnett doesn't suggest that Derek Johnson's eye for 2nd-round college pitchers is all that great, based on Zastryzny/Stinnett results thus far. We'll see how things go with Sands/Steele/Cease/Null.
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Jensen also is supposed to have a pretty good curve ball.
As for the non first round picks these are guys I haven't written off yet
For possible impact guys- Underwood, Clifton, Stinnett, Sands, Cease,
Interesting guys and maybe bench/bullpen- Zagunis, Steele, Norwood, Mitchell, Null, Willis, Zastrynzy, Skulina, Garner, Hankins, Burks, McNeil, Conway, Crawford, Rademacher, Hanneman
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I wonder how many 2nd round on picks become actual major leaguers. Looking at 2001 rounds 2-10 produced 1-2 guys at most that had more than 10 rWAR.
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Which pertains to the draft philosophy and pitchers. The general wisdom that good pitchers can (and do) arise outside of the first round seems to make sense. But how often does that actually happen? And is it actually happening with the specific pitchers the Cubs have been loading up on over the last four years? Maybe we need to take a chance on a pitcher in round one this year, and accept the risk?
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I wouldn't be surprised if we do pick a pitcher in the first round, and it might even be a high school pitcher.
But here is the draft status of the current cubs pitchers. The only first rounder is the injured Neil Ramirez. Everyone else was lower, or IFAs.
Neil Ramirez 1st round
Jon Lester 2nd round
Travis Wood 2nd round
Jake Arrieta 5th round
Justin Grimm 5th round
Edwin Jackson 6th round
Kyle Hendricks 8th round
Jason Hammel 10th round
Zac Rosscup 28th round
Jason Motte 19th round
Phil Coke 26th round
Hector rondon IFA
Pedro Strop IFA
Who will be the first non-first rounder to make the majors? I would bet on a relief pitcher.
I have never seen the stats, but I wouldn't be surprised if first rounders are quicker to the majors, if for no other reason than that they are already more advanced than other picks. Jon Lester struggled through the 02, 03 and 04 seasons before catching fire. It might be a little early to write off the 2012 draft class.
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Pitching Leaders fWAR 2010-2015 (Round.Pick)
Kershaw 1.7
Hernandez IFA
Verlander 1.2
Lee 4.5
Price 1.1
Scherzer 1.11
Greinke 1.6
Hamels 1.17
Wainwright 1.29
Sanchez IFA
Lester 2.16
Weaver 1.12
Sabathia 1.20
Bumgarner 1.10
Gonzalez 1.8
Shields 16.6
Latos 11.17
Kuroda IFA
Fister 7.5
Wilson 5.5
Halladay 1.17
Sale 1.13
Zimmermann 2.3
Cueto IFA
Strasberg 1.1
Top 25 14 1st Round picks
2 2nd rounders
4 IFA
5 Outside of top 2 rounds.
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Top Hitters fWAR
Cabrera IFA
Trout 1.25
McCutchen 1.11
Cano IFA
Beltre IFA
Bautista 1.6
Votto 2.3
Longoria 1.3
Zobrist 6.23
Pedroia 2.24
Posey 1.5
Holliday 7.17
Tulo 1.7
Gordon 1.2
Gonzalez 1.1
Kinsler 17.7
Headley 2.18
Heyword 1.14
Stanton 2.12
Ellsbury 1.23
Molina 4.13
Jones 1.7
Wright 1.8
Braun 1.5
Utley 1.15
14 1st rounders
4 second rounders
3 IFA
4 Outside top 2 rounds
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CubsDen
RHP Michael Jensen had his 12-6 curve working, locating it where it would come in looking like a hittable strike before the bottom fell out and hitters were reaching for it. He's not just a finesse guy as he can bring his FB into mid 90s and topped out at 97 so far this year.
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Torres: 2-3, 2B, BB, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_12_lanafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Schwarber: 1-4, HR, RBI, BB, 2 K
Vogelbach: 3-3, BB
Edwards: 2-1-2-1-1-4
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_12_monaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Myrtle Beach rained out.
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Edwards: 46 pitches to get through 2 innings.
For a guy who had .679, .742, and .673 OPS's the last three years, at lower levels, I keep waiting for Willson Contreras's small-sample hot-streak to run out, and for him to come back to earth. But he's sustained for 95 AB's now. High BABIP. There was a time years ago that his catcher tools were evaluated as pretty favorable, but then there didn't seem to be much indication that the tools were actually turning into skills. Lots of backup catchers in the majors, though.
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Tyler Ihrig--up from the South Bend bullpen--starting for Iowa tonight in place of Wada.
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Wada is going to start for Iowa tomorrow. Still interesting that they synced him up with Wood.
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Latest updates from Arizona Phil on La Stella, Cease, Daniel Bard, and Pierce Johnson:
Tommy LaStella (on Cubs MLB 15-day DL - rib cage inflammation) returned to the field for the first time in almost five weeks and saw action in the game on Field #6, playing 3rd base for four innings and then 2nd base for two innings. He batted four times (once in each of the first four innings) and had quite a day, driving-in three runs with two doubles, an RBI single, and a sacrifice fly, while also scoring two runs, helping the Cubs take a 7-1 lead through three innings.
19-year old RHP Dylan Cease (2014 TJS) made his first Cactus League EXST game appearance after pitching in several "sim" games over the past month, throwing 16 pitches in the top of the 1st inning in the game on Field #5. He retired two (a 1-3 comebacker and a strikeout looking) and hit one batter before being relieved (he was under a strict pitch count). Cease was the Cubs 6th round draft pick out of Milton HS - Milton, Ga in 2014, and the Cubs selected him despite knowing that he would need a UCL elbow ligament transplant ("Tommy John surgery"). Considered one of the top high school arms in the 2014 draft class and a likely 1st round pick prior to his elbow issues, he received a $1.5M signing bonus (equivalent to "first round money") and then had the TJS last July 22nd. He has made a rapid recovery, and barring a setback, he will likely be a rotation starter for the AZL Cubs when the Arizona League season begins play next month.
RHRP Daniel Bard .... threw an inning in the game on Field #6....but Bard allowed two runs on two hits, an HBP, and a WP, plus a two-base throwing error on an attempted pick-off in his inning (20 pitches - only 10 strikes). Bard is now throwing mostly side-arm, and his one-time upper 90's velocity now sits at 91-92, occasionally touching 93.
Pierce Johnson (lat strain) is with the Pitchers Rehab Group (includes Marcelo Carreno, Anthony Carter, Dylan Cease, Pierce Johnson, Trey Masek, Erling Moreno, and Austin Reed) and he has been participating in limited drills on the field (including playing catch) but he is not throwing off a mound yet.
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Zone Contact% Outside Zone Swing% Contact%
2002 81.9% 27.1% 73.5%
2003 84.1% 32.9% 72.7%
2004 78.7% 23.6% 71.5%
2005 82.5% 30.2% 72.8%
2006 87.1% 37.5% 77.7%
2007 86.3% 44.8% 79.9%
2008 89.8% 36.8% 81.3%
2010 87% 37.9% 75.5%
2011 87.4% 37.4% 77.1%
I'll give you 1 guess at which two numbers are usually within 5% of league average and which one is always greater than 10% difference of league average.
Baez OPS A Ball .979 2012
Baez OPS A+ .873 2013
Baez OPS AA Ball .984 2013
BAez OPS AAA .833 2014
Patterson .949 to .829 to .694. I'm not sure how that looks in any way similar.
And while I have sincerely been trying to follow the discussion, what I am not at all sure of is how any of that makes any sense, or what you are trying to say. I am genuinely not arguing with any point being made. I simply can not see the point you are trying to make in this post.
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Top Hitters fWAR
Cabrera IFA
Trout 1.25
McCutchen 1.11
Cano IFA
Beltre IFA
Bautista 1.6
Votto 2.3
Longoria 1.3
Zobrist 6.23
Pedroia 2.24
Posey 1.5
Holliday 7.17
Tulo 1.7
Gordon 1.2
Gonzalez 1.1
Kinsler 17.7
Headley 2.18
Heyword 1.14
Stanton 2.12
Ellsbury 1.23
Molina 4.13
Jones 1.7
Wright 1.8
Braun 1.5
Utley 1.15
14 1st rounders
4 second rounders
3 IFA
4 Outside top 2 rounds
What happened to Pujols? Utley was a more valuable hitter than Pujols over that period? Or did I just miss Pujol's name on the list?
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What happened to Pujols? Utley was a more valuable hitter than Pujols over that period? Or did I just miss Pujol's name on the list?
#32 with 18.1 fWAR.
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#32 with 18.1 fWAR.
Sorry, but any list which puts Molina's value as a hitter ahead of Pujols for the period from 2010 to 2015 is a list to which I have difficulty ascribing any value whatsoever.
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WAR also includes defense and positional adjustment which really hurt him. His last dominant offensive year was in 2010. From just an offensive standpoint he would have only graded out at 18. That same list would have graded him out at #2 in the 00's, when he was a truly special hitter.
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Black: 6-4-2-2-3-6
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_12_monaax_tenaax_2&t=g_box&sid=milb
Baez: 2-4, HR, RBI, 2 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_12_nasaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Baez' homer:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=112708683&topic_id=18601616&c_id=&sid=milb
Schwarber's homer:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=112821883&topic_id=18601616&c_id=&sid=milb
Good power shown by Torres on this double:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=112763783&topic_id=18601616&c_id=&sid=milb
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Nice to see Baez with the HR. Lots of leg kick on that one, and he holds it up high for a long time while waiting for the pitch. Both of his HR's have been versus lefties.
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By Baez standards, that was a pretty calm, easy swing.
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Man, Schwarber is going to be a wrecking machine.
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https://www.dropbox.com/s/nh6rmlk1qy9e3wz/Screenshot%202015-05-13%2010.15.46.png?dl=0 (https://www.dropbox.com/s/nh6rmlk1qy9e3wz/Screenshot%202015-05-13%2010.15.46.png?dl=0)
The cool thing about Baez's leg kick is that he's already elevating while the pitcher still is loading the ball with pitcher-weight way behind. Baez has it at max lift, with his knee belt-high, even before the pitcher actually releases the ball. He just keeps it hanging, beautifully balanced on his back leg, before he explodes. The coordination and skill to remain poised on one leg for as long as he does is pretty amazing. Easy to see why a pitcher with location, or movement, or change-of-speed, might be able to tip the balance sometimes, and make it hard for him to adjust to actual pitches. But when he guesses right and is able to maintain the balance, it's really elegant to watch.
A HR like that, even with the big leg kick it still didn't clear the wall by all that much. It's not like it was 100 feet over the wall or anything. There has been the "cut down on your swing, you don't need to hit it 500 feet" talk. But, I wonder how true it is that he can cut down much and still hit them out. As Jeff says, this wasn't a massive lift by Baez standards, but perhaps he needs at least this much? Even here, he was starting to tip over a little bit, so the extra "wait" was threatening to lose his balance. He didn't "get all of it", really.
I imagine some of the compromise is to do the HR-enabling lift early in count, and then to give up on the HR's and do a small-lift, limited-power approach with 2 strikes.
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I think the leg kick isn't a huge issue on strikes 1 and 2. His contact% is approaching 70% at AAA which would be great for him. I think when he needs the quieter approach is with 2 strikes. If he could do a Rizzo like approach that would be great.
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https://www.dropbox.com/s/nh6rmlk1qy9e3wz/Screenshot%202015-05-13%2010.15.46.png?dl=0 (https://www.dropbox.com/s/nh6rmlk1qy9e3wz/Screenshot%202015-05-13%2010.15.46.png?dl=0)
But, I wonder how true it is that he can cut down much and still hit them out. As Jeff says, this wasn't a massive lift by Baez standards, but perhaps he needs at least this much? Even here, he was starting to tip over a little bit, so the extra "wait" was threatening to lose his balance. He didn't "get all of it", really.
One of the hardest things to learn about a golf swing is that you don't gain much distance by swinging as hard as you can, and conversely, you don't lose much distance by a controlled swing. But, like baseball, a controlled swing is much more likely to cause the hit on the sweet spot, and is much better over the long run. I suspect that this is what they are trying to teach Baez - that you will still hit them far, but with a controlled swing, you will hit them more often (not just home runs, but contact.
Although I understand the concept when it comes to my golf swing, I find it extremely to implement it on a day to day basis. The temptation to "lay into it" is deeply ingrained, and doing otherwise is contrary to all instinct. Probably why I am a 100 handicapper rather than a scratch golfer.
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The other thing with that HR swing is Baez didn't roll his ankles like he had in the past. Gary Sheffield when he looked at Baez's swing thought that was costing him a lot of bat control.
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If he could do a Rizzo like approach that would be great.
You think?
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Wittenmyer has a piece for BA about Baez, either trying to move him to a new position or from the team. Anyone with access seen it yet?
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Wittenmyer has a piece for BA about Baez, either trying to move him to a new position or from the team. Anyone with access seen it yet?
I'm super anxious to see it, given Wittenmyer's proven record of special access to the Cubs' FO. ;)
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You think?
I was talking more about the low leg kick and short stroke with 2 strikes, but sure if he could have a 1:1 BB:K ratio that would be great.
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As to everybody's favorite beat writer, Gordon Wittenmyer, he had a making-a-mountain-out-of-a-molehill article regarding the possibility of a Mets/Cubs trade.
http://bleacherreport.com/tb/dgCkb?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=chicago-cubs (http://bleacherreport.com/tb/dgCkb?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=chicago-cubs)
I'm pretty confident that Wittenmyer is going to be the one breaking a story about the Cubs' intentions regarding Javy Baez (or anyone else for that matter).
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I never assumed Wittenmyer's BA piece was anything more than his suggestions about what to do with Baez, not inside info on the Cubs' thinking.
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Baez so far today is 1/4 that gives him a 8.3% walk rate and 26.7% strike out rate.
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Baez: 1-4
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_13_nasaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Tennessee off, Myrtle Beach rained out.
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I never assumed Wittenmyer's BA piece was anything more than his suggestions about what to do with Baez, not inside info on the Cubs' thinking.
Fair enough. As for me, I just don't have any interest in what he thinks about what the Cubs should or are likely to do with Baez. But I can understand why others would feel differently.
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... His contact% is approaching 70% at AAA which would be great for him. ...
Blue or anybody, does anybody have any studies or data on what the typical AAA => majors decline is in terms of:
a) contact rate b) HR/K rate? Or just qualitative guesses for what you'd expect?
I assume it's totally normal for K-rate to rise significantly and for contact rate to drop. For Alcantara, Baez, Soler, Bryant, and Russell, the K-rate has increased a lot. A larger increase than will remain after they adjust, obviously. But I'd guess that for a typical guy, his K-rate should likely be at least 20% higher than it was in AAA, even after he's gotten 500 big-league AB's and made some adjustments? (As we've seen with our guys, probably MUCH bigger jump than that during the first couple hundred AB's.)
Perhaps more significant is the K/HR ratio. I'd guess that against big-league pitching, the K/HR ratio should typically get at least 50% worse, and often much more? What do you think, or what do the stats show? A 4:1 K/HR-in-AAA guy should likely drop to 6:1 or worse in majors? An 8:1 K/HR guy in AAA should drop to 12:1 or worse in majors?
For Baez, I kind of think K/HR is really the simpler factor to watch than K-rate or K/BB. If there are enough HR's to justify, then pretty much any k-rate can theoretically become acceptable. In A/AA, he had a K/HR of little more than 4. If he has a 5:1 K/HR ratio, he's going to be useful whether that's 200K/40HR or 250K/50HR or 150K/30HR. If he had a 4:1 K/HR, nobody will complain about 200K if he's got 50 HR's to go with, or about 240K if it comes with 60HR. But if it's 10:1 or worse, people might struggle with valuing the 20HR versus 200+ K's.
K/HR and contact rate are tightly intertwined, I expect. (And K/BB). Two obvious adjustments to keep from K'ing too much is to cut back on your swing (perhaps at the expense of HR's), or to swing earlier in the count in order to face fewer 2-strike K-counts (at the expense of walks.) So I imagine how badly the K/HR erodes varies a lot from guy to guy, probably depending on how hard it is to keep the K's to manageable levels.
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Chris and Ron are right. There isn't a single thing in the article that either has already been reported (they talked but have done nothing because each team values their players more highly than the other team), or the reporter's obvious speculation, similar to the speculation that just about all of us have done on this and other boards. It is amazing that he can make a living at what he does.
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Baez: 1-4
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_13_nasaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb...
With Bryant and Russell and Olt, Christian Villanueva coming off his .676-OPS season last year is a forgotten guy. I hadn't realized, but he's got 5 HR and an .827 OPS, with an uncharacteristic 14K/9BB/5HR ratio. (Last year his K/HR was 106:10). Given his former reputation as a good fielder, if he could sustain that kind of reasonable K-rate, he's got a chance to become a major leaguer. Small sample for sure. He's got 7 errors already.
Speaking of surprising and probably small-sample-deceptive early success guys, does Donn Roach have any big-league talent? He's winning the BABIP wars in Iowa, with very few K's. But if you don't walk guys and don't allow HR's, perhaps you can be pretty effective even without a put away pitch?
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Blue or anybody, does anybody have any studies or data on what the typical AAA => majors decline is in terms of:
a) contact rate b) HR/K rate? Or just qualitative guesses for what you'd expect?
I assume it's totally normal for K-rate to rise significantly and for contact rate to drop. For Alcantara, Baez, Soler, Bryant, and Russell, the K-rate has increased a lot. A larger increase than will remain after they adjust, obviously. But I'd guess that for a typical guy, his K-rate should likely be at least 20% higher than it was in AAA, even after he's gotten 500 big-league AB's and made some adjustments? (As we've seen with our guys, probably MUCH bigger jump than that during the first couple hundred AB's.)
Perhaps more significant is the K/HR ratio. I'd guess that against big-league pitching, the K/HR ratio should typically get at least 50% worse, and often much more? What do you think, or what do the stats show? A 4:1 K/HR-in-AAA guy should likely drop to 6:1 or worse in majors? An 8:1 K/HR guy in AAA should drop to 12:1 or worse in majors?
For Baez, I kind of think K/HR is really the simpler factor to watch than K-rate or K/BB. If there are enough HR's to justify, then pretty much any k-rate can theoretically become acceptable. In A/AA, he had a K/HR of little more than 4. If he has a 5:1 K/HR ratio, he's going to be useful whether that's 200K/40HR or 250K/50HR or 150K/30HR. If he had a 4:1 K/HR, nobody will complain about 200K if he's got 50 HR's to go with, or about 240K if it comes with 60HR. But if it's 10:1 or worse, people might struggle with valuing the 20HR versus 200+ K's.
K/HR and contact rate are tightly intertwined, I expect. (And K/BB). Two obvious adjustments to keep from K'ing too much is to cut back on your swing (perhaps at the expense of HR's), or to swing earlier in the count in order to face fewer 2-strike K-counts (at the expense of walks.) So I imagine how badly the K/HR erodes varies a lot from guy to guy, probably depending on how hard it is to keep the K's to manageable levels.
Contact rates for the minors are relatively new, so nothing that I know about. I wouldn't assume that K% are going to jump a lot from the minors to the majors. For the guys that don't stick their K% could jump. For guys that do it can remain constant or improve. Rizzo has a usually in the low twenties in the minors with the Red Sox/Padres and he's been sub 20% every year with Cubs. Stanton has always been a high twenties stirke out percentage guy.
Villanueva, I've always thought of as a trade chip.
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From Keith Law chat today:
Q: Have you had a chance to see Duane Underwood this year? Trying to keep SSS in mind, but seems like a lot to be bullish about.
Klaw: He didn't pitch when Myrtle was here, although I've heard the stuff has ticked up again. Might be their #3 prospect by year-end, after Schwarber (I'm assuming he doesn't get called up till late) and Torres.
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Contact rates for the minors are relatively new, so nothing that I know about. I wouldn't assume that K% are going to jump a lot from the minors to the majors. For the guys that don't stick their K% could jump. For guys that do it can remain constant or improve. Rizzo has a usually in the low twenties in the minors with the Red Sox/Padres and he's been sub 20% every year with Cubs. Stanton has always been a high twenties stirke out percentage guy. ...
Different people use contact rate in different meanings. Some have it simply as percentage of AB's that are contact versus K. http://www.baseballhq.com/glossary-c-k
Useful, obviously, is contact-per-swing.
Where do you get that for minors, and where do you get that at 70% for Baez?
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And assuming by contact rate you mean contact-per-swing, why would you think that would stay the same in the majors as in the minors? That seems very unlikely for non-great players.
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Am I the only one who thinks it is unlikely to get much of a meaningful impression of how Baez is doing and whether he is successful with the changes he needs to make until we have seen how he does over a course of about three months?
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http://minorleaguecentral.com/player?pid=595879
Contact per swing is correct.
It is a very new thing and they only have it for AA and AAA.
Most hitters are going to either make contact or be swing and miss guys. There will be some variation from year to year, but most hitters will fall into a range. Baez isn't going to go from 90% in rookie ball to 80% in A to 75% in A+ to 70% in AA to 65% in AAA to 60% in the majors. If Baez makes it he will be in 70-65% range. If he falls below that it will be really tough for him to have a major league career. Could he end up being less than 65% sure.
I guess what I'm trying to say is for guys that make it they will be roughly in the same band that they were in minors. Guys that don't make it won't be. Putting the bat on the ball is a skill and for Baez he needs to be somewhere between 65-70% to make it work. That is where is skill and swing are going to put him, he isn't going to be an 80% guy in AAA and 65% guy in the majors.
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Torres: 3-5, 2B, RBI
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_13_lanafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Torres, at age 18, is now hiting .336, 4th best in the league, and the only 18 year old in the top 100 hitters in the league for BA.
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Jim Callis @jimcallisMLB 27s27 seconds ago
Keep an eye on him. 6-foot-8, up to 93, good curve. @miguelbenitez1: Jeremy Null w/South Bend @Cubs…worth keeping an eye on or just a guy?
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Myrtle Beach was not rained out yesterday; instead, their entire series against Carolina has been cancelled after the Carolina team bus crashed injuring several of the players.
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Why would the Cubs trade Baez when his trade value is likely to be quite low? It would make more sense to hope that he gets on a roll at AAA, at which point they would have the option of trading him for a significant return.
http://www.hngn.com/articles/90780/20150508/chicago-cubs-rumors-javier-baez-needs-a-change-of-scenery-trade-on-the-way.htm
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So far today, Wada - 7 innings, 4 hits, 1 run, 0 walks, 6 strike outs.
Baez a single in three at bats - no strike outs.
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I think he is what he is.
I'd move him while there's some value left.
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Torres with two singles in five at bats. BA .339
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Anybody remember what Rob Zastryzny's injury is?
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On twitter he made it sound something about his foot, but I don't have any specifics.
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On twitter he made it sound something about his foot, but I don't have any specifics.
Thanks. I couldn't find anything with Google.
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Definitely a foot injury. He took some time off and tried to come back, but it either wasn't right yet or he re-injured it.
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Baez: 2-4, 3 RBI
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_14_nasaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 2-5, RBI
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_14_lanafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Torres RBI hit today:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=114714083&sid=milb
Like Baez, Torres also lifts his leg well prior to the pitch reaching home plate.
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Like Baez, Torres also lifts his leg well prior to the pitch reaching home plate.
Unlike Baez, he does not try to spray a fire hydrant once the leg is lifted. Torrez has a K-rate of less than 20% -- 25 in 135 PA, and 17 walks.
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So, McKinney's now in AA.
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He won't be up for long. He has already made an out.
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Now he's doubled so maybe can stay.
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I still havent went to a game yet.
Ive spent too much time working and playing golf this Summer.
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Now he's doubled so maybe can stay.
Still a double behind Almora, though.
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Not any more.
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Pineyro has 22K/0BB over his last three starts. I wonder what kind of stuff he's got to enable that to happen? That other little roster-fill reliever Batista that Tennessee has been using as a starter has also pitched very well. He's got a 1.53 ERA in rotation, and his career ERA is sub-3. Presumably not the big-prospect power-relievers that reb wants :) But, having somebody who can throw strikes might be nice in relief.
Almora's BABIP is over .300, although not the .330-.360 (or higher) that is common for good minor-league hitters. His BABIP should probably level up a little higher than it is, but it's not clear he's really hitting in bad luck or anything.
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Cubs Den tweeted Pineyro was hitting 92, which would have been an improvement for him.
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Schwarber: 3-5
McKinney: 2-4, 2 2B, RBI
Vogelbach: 1-3, 2 BB, K
Pineyro: 5-4-1-1-0-7, last 3 starts: 19 IP, 0 BB, 22 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_14_monaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Hannemann catch:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?&sid=milb&content_id=115824083
McKinney's first hit:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=115771683&topic_id=18601616&c_id=&sid=milb
Almora makes a catch:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=115771683&topic_id=18601616&c_id=&sid=milb
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Schwarber: 3-5
McKinney: 2-4, 2 2B, RBI
Vogelbach: 1-3, 2 BB, K
Pineyro: 5-4-1-1-0-7, last 3 starts: 19 IP, 0 BB, 22 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_14_monaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
While most of the attention at Tennessee has understandably been focused on Vogelbach, Schwarber, Almora and now McKinney, Wilson Contreras now has a slash line of .330/.404/.495/.899 in 97 AB. He just turned 23 yesterday, and this is the first season in three years he has gotten much of a break from catching, playing DH amost half the time. His career K rate is about 18.6, but this year, his first in AA, his K rate is down to 15.6%.
It could be very big if Contreras is developing into a meaningful hitter.
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Muskat reports that Cubs have released Ben Wells.
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Javier Baez's last two opening months:
April 2014: 15 Games, 58 AB's, .172/.238/.379 , 4 BB, 22 K
May 2015: 15 Games, 57 AB's, .281/.359/.421 , 5 BB, 16 K
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Progress.
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Hannemann catch:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?&sid=milb&content_id=115824083
McKinney's first hit:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=115771683&topic_id=18601616&c_id=&sid=milb
Almora makes a catch:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=115771683&topic_id=18601616&c_id=&sid=milb
The last two links are the same, both to McKinney.
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Chris is slacking off. DFA him.
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Nice looking swing. Not sure lots of power.
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Baez' 2-run single which is disappointingly a bloop, but at least it's contact in play.
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=116163583&topic_id=18601616&c_id=&sid=milb
Here's Almora's catch:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=115778183&sid=milb
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Cubs Den tweeted Pineyro was hitting 92, which would have been an improvement for him.
A little disappointing to me. If he's topping at 92 on a good day, that's not too fast compared to most RHP. I'd hoped that after rehab, that he'd maybe have added a little more. I usually figure a "topping" is 2-4 faster than cruise. Hendricks and Wood hit 92 and above too. That said, what difference is 1-2 mph? 90-92 with control, and a K-breaking ball? Hope he can keep it going. Maybe relief at some point.
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Not a particularly difficult play, but I like the way Almora glides to the ball and goes up to get it under complete control. Pretty to watch.
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A little disappointing to me. If he's topping at 92 on a good day, that's not too fast compared to most RHP. I'd hoped that after rehab, that he'd maybe have added a little more. I usually figure a "topping" is 2-4 faster than cruise. Hendricks and Wood hit 92 and above too. That said, what difference is 1-2 mph? 90-92 with control, and a K-breaking ball? Hope he can keep it going. Maybe relief at some point.
I might have messed up a Cubs Den tweet, with him that isn't hard. Here is what he wrote up. I believe prior to this he was sub 90.
As far as stuff and control goes, this is about the best I have seen from Ivan Pineyro. He was at 92-93 mph with his fastball, had good break to his curve -- and this from a guy whose best pitch has been his change-up. He was inefficient as he didn't always locate where he wanted to, but he worked through it for 5 innings and 88 pitches (60 strikes) before having to exit after he was struck in the hand by a comebacker. He went 5 innings, allowing 4 hits, 1 run while walking none and striking out 7. He has shown good control this season with a 1.8 BB/9IP rate and 9.3 Ks/9IP while posting a 3.18 ERA. Let's hope he is ok because if he can do that consistently, he can be a lot more interesting.
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I wonder what it would take to get Andrew Susac from San Francisco. If you're serious about Schwaber catching, that probably means he's not ready until 2017 at the earliest, but if you acquired Susac you could put Schwaber in left and see him by 2016, if not September of this year. All of this is influenced by my guess that Schwaber wont stick at catcher.
Basically all of San Fran's top prospects are pitchers, so perhaps you could make this a pretty big trade. People want to focus on the Mets and their pitching, but San Francisco has some nice arms as well and a dearth of offensive prospects. If you want to ignore Susac, perhaps a prospect for prospect swap (ala Cashner for Rizzo) would work....with the Cubs picking up an arm this time. Not ignoreing Susac, how about: Mckinney, Wellington Castillo and Baez for Susac, Strickland, and Okert? Okert and Strickland could come in now and help the pen. The Cubs are probably giving up too much, but its a proposal to start a discussion here. San Francisco seems like a better fit for Chicago than then Mets b/c dealing with the Giants wouldn't necessarily mean trading Castro (though I'm in favor of trading Castro).
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Nice looking swing. Not sure lots of power.
Shouldn't be too surprising. I don't think I have heard any report that he will have lots of power.
But lacking lots of power, and lacking outstanding defense, he better be a .300 plus hitter in the majors at least.
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That is way too much to give up for a backup catcher and 2 relief prospects. To be honest I don't think I would trade McKinney or Baez for the Giants package.
The Cubs have a starting catcher in Montero signed until 2017. I'm not super convinced that Susac is a huge upgrade over Castillo to begin with. Strickland has a nice fastball, but he has had shoulder and TJS already. Okert I don't know enough about. If they aren't jumping Rondon, Strop, Grimm, Ramirez, Rosscup in the pen that is a ton to give up for bullpen guys.
That said from the Giants the rumor has always been that they are going to move Posey off of catcher, so I'm not sure why they would want to get rid of Susac either.
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I might have messed up a Cubs Den tweet, with him that isn't hard. Here is what he wrote up. I believe prior to this he was sub 90.
As far as stuff and control goes, this is about the best I have seen from Ivan Pineyro. He was at 92-93 mph with his fastball, had good break to his curve -- and this from a guy whose best pitch has been his change-up. He was inefficient as he didn't always locate where he wanted to, but he worked through it for 5 innings and 88 pitches (60 strikes) before having to exit after he was struck in the hand by a comebacker. He went 5 innings, allowing 4 hits, 1 run while walking none and striking out 7. He has shown good control this season with a 1.8 BB/9IP rate and 9.3 Ks/9IP while posting a 3.18 ERA. Let's hope he is ok because if he can do that consistently, he can be a lot more interesting.
Thanks, that sounds pretty good. Being "at" 92-93 sounds like he was working there and throwing a lot of those, as opposed to throwing thirty 88-91 fastballs and three 92's. 92-93 velocity from a curve/changeup/low-walks guy sounds very usable.
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Somebody tweeted Cubs den that Underwood hit 102 on the stadium gun. The readings for Panguia don't seem to be really high either. FWIW.
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Not many strikeouts but a ton of ground balls for Underwood
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Saw on Twitter underwood was hitting 98 several times
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Craig's going to be very happy tonight.
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Almora: 2-4, 2B, 3B, RBI, BB
Schwarber: 3-4, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB
Vogelbach: 2-3, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 2 BB, K
McKinney: 2B, RBI, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_15_monaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Zagunis: 3-5, 2 RBI
Underwood: 5-4-0-0-0-3
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_15_myrafa_cmcafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Clifton: 6-4-1-1-3-7
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_15_souafx_swmafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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I saw him late last year.. Pretty sure he was throwing 96-97 for the first couple innings and 95-93 through out the night
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Almora: 2-4, 2B, 3B, RBI, BB
Schwarber: 3-4, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB
Vogelbach: 2-3, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 2 BB, K
McKinney: 2B, RBI, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_15_monaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Zagunis: 3-5, 2 RBI
Underwood: 5-4-0-0-0-3
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_15_myrafa_cmcafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Clifton: 6-4-1-1-3-7
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_15_souafx_swmafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
A good day in the minor leagues it seems.
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And so far Baez is 2-3.
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Our AA lineup is impressive.
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Baez adds a 2-run single.
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Baez: 3-4, 2 RBI, K, 2 SB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_15_nasaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Baez: 3-4, 2 RBI, K, 2 SB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_15_nasaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Please turn out to be good. Please turn out to be good. Please turn out to be good. Please turn out to be good.
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ChicagoCubsOnline retweeted
Tommy Birch @TommyBirch 42m42 minutes ago
Baez: "I'm feeling what I was feeling when I was doing good." #Cubs #PCL #MiLB
Mark Gonzales retweeted
Tommy Birch @TommyBirch 47m47 minutes ago
Baez: "I think I found my swing. Well, I don't think, I know I found my swing." #Cubs #PCL #MiLB
Mark Gonzales retweeted
Tommy Birch @TommyBirch 45m45 minutes ago
Last time Baez felt this good at the plate: "When I was in double-A. I haven't felt like this since I've been here."
Len Kasper retweeted
Tommy Birch @TommyBirch 2h2 hours ago
This little stretch Baez is on right now is the best I've seen him in. Heated up at times last season. Never got really hot. #Cubs #MiLB
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Eric Clark @_ericlark 2h2 hours ago
@TommyBirch any chance he gets promoted in the near future? and where would certain players move to give him PT? #hypothetical
@TommyBirch 2h2 hours ago
@_ericlark Chance? Yes. But, he's got to play everyday and with Bryant at 3B, Castro at SS, and Russell at 2B, someone would have to move.
BRIAN W @SANOT85 2h2 hours ago
@TommyBirch @BrianSandalow Is his pitch selection better or is he just making contact with the ones he's swinging at? Sustainable progress?
Tommy Birch @TommyBirch 2h2 hours ago
@SANOT85 He's definitely been more patient lately.
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Baez' performance has been encouraging, but there is currently no place for him on the ML roster and more time at AAA will be good for him. At some point, if he continues to perform well, it would be nice to see whether he's ready to deal with ML pitching. But I really don't want him taking playing time from Russell, and it's hard to imaging the Cubs giving him much time at SS. If they could be confident about Baez, I'd be fine with trading Castro, but I'm not sure how Baez will get sufficient ML ABs for them to be confident. Trading Baez might ultimately turn out to be the way to go if the return is sufficient.
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Yep.
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Bryant to LF. If and it is a big if Baez has figured things out, 30-40 HR MIF with plus defense do not get traded.
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This is almost exactly the same time that Baez heated up in 2014.
May 16, 2014.
What's new this time?
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Schwarber's homer:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?&sid=milb&content_id=117051183
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This is almost exactly the same time that Baez heated up in 2014.
May 16, 2014.
What's new this time?
It may be the same time of year, but many fewer games and at bats, given his time off. And his BA, OBP and OPS are all improvements over his final AAA stats last year, which included a sustained period of being hot. Only his slugging is down. While that doesn't prove a change in approach, it is consistent with one.
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Bryant to LF. If and it is a big if Baez has figured things out, 30-40 HR MIF with plus defense do not get traded.
Not at all sure about Bryant to LF, the way he's being playing 3B - I don't think the Cubs will move him to make room for Baez. But I agree that the Cubs won't trade him if they believe he can be a "30-40 HR MIF with plus defense." Even with Castro settling down some, I think he's the guy most likely to be moved.
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Bryant at 3B isn't horrible, but it isn't good either.
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Bryant to LF. If and it is a big if Baez has figured things out, 30-40 HR MIF with plus defense do not get traded.
I don't know... I seem to remember something about no major league team moving a top young player down the defensive spectrum unless he hs shown an inability to meet the defensive needs of the position higher on the defensive spectrum.....
This is almost exactly the same time that Baez heated up in 2014. May 16, 2014. What's new this time?
From just looking at the box scores, or the accumulated stats collected from the box scores, perhaps nothing other than the calendar has changed, but I'll be happy to trust the judgment of those who have been watching his at bats and his performance in the batting cages and can see what, if anything, is new.
While Russell certainly has been doing well enough to reamin in the majors, he is still under team control, and sending him back down to Iowa for a couple of months, allowing the Cubs to get an extended look at Baez, while still giving Russell continued daily playing time, should not really hurt Russell in any way, while allowing the team the opportunity to form a more meaningful opinion as to what they have in Baez. That said, moving Bryant to LF and Russell to 3B for the same period would likely be the better course of action consistent with winning as many games as possible now, as well as positioning the team to win as many games in the future as possible.
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his BA, OBP and OPS are all improvements over his final AAA stats last year, which included a sustained period of being hot. Only his slugging is down. While that doesn't prove a change in approach, it is consistent with one.
A higher BA, OBP and OPS, over a brief period of time, with a lower slugging percentage, would also be consistent with lucl producing an unsustainably high BABIP. AND it would seem to be not only the easier explanation but also the more likely cause of that sort of change. Occam's razor.
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This is almost exactly the same time that Baez heated up in 2014.
May 16, 2014.
What's new this time?
Hopefully, his swing and his approach.
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Shouldn't be too surprising. I don't think I have heard any report that he [McKinney] will have lots of power. But lacking lots of power, and lacking outstanding defense, he better be a .300 plus hitter in the majors at least.
"Lots of" is the key there. We know he doesn't have Baez/Bryant/Rizzo/Soler/Schwarber raw power, that's fine. But there's a whole lot of space in between Bryant and Herrera on the power-scale. As you mentioned with the golf analogy, solid contact can send balls pretty far fairly often even without a max swing. It's possible that he'll have good contact with enough frequency to hit 15 HR's per year even without a max swing or notable power. Obviously the threshold for what he'll need average-wise will depend on where he falls on the threshold between 3 to 25 HR-per-year. 14-18 is a lot different from 4-8. And obviously an extra 10 HR's is 10 hits for average/OBP, and 40 total bases for slugging, and perhaps also more careful pitching leading to more walks. Castro has been 10-14 HR's, I could easily imagine McKinney matching or perhaps exceeding Castro in power.
I also wonder how much the power issue is the ability, versus the approach. Sure, he's not obviously built for big power. But his slim frame would seem to have space to add some strength to it; it's not like at age 20 we should assume he's maxed-out strength-wise. A couple years at Camp Colvin and turning 21-22-23 could see him becoming stronger than presently. In the clips I see, he's having a very controlled, line-drive approach. But I'd guess there may be some situational counts or match ups where he might swing harder, and the value and frequency of doing so might increase in future if he gets somewhat stronger. (More strategic reason to swing hard if doing so might hit HR than if doing so still only results in a warning-track fly.)
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That Schwarber HR was WAY back. Very modest little leg kick for him, very little motion, but he really drilled that one deep. Impressive.
Baez has his BABIP up over .400. Nice. Last year his Iowa BABIP was .331, so that's a bit of a difference, too. His current OPS is only slightly below what he had at Iowa last year.
Thanks for posting those Birch and baez comments. I think a player's comments about how he feels can be pretty meaningful. Nobody knows better than the player himself. "I've found my swing", "I'm feeling what I was feeling when I was doing good", I like to read that. "When I was in double-A. I haven't felt like this since I've been here."
I found the latter interesting, given the periodic blazing weeks he had at Iowa last summer. Maybe he's not remembering how good he felt at times last year, because it didn't last.
This has been 6 hot days. Everybody has hots and colds. So, we'll see how long he can stay on the crest, and how low it gets again when he falls back off the wave. Can he sustain? Or after facing two tough pitchers back to back, will that feeling and that "I've found my swing" be lost again? Would sure be awesome if the approach has helped.
We've seen Soriano-like bursts of HR's from Baez, at Daytona, at Tennessee, at Iowa. I'm almost feeling like it's kind of cool that he's being productive right now even without the HR's, and that if he can keep his swing and keep feeling good things will look even better. I almost feel like he's almost overdue for one of those 2-HR game/3-HR series/4-HR weeks that can flip an .825 OPS into a .950 OPS.
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With the amount of power already in their ML roster, it may be ideal to have McKinney be a high, BA, high OBP type with whatever power goes along with that.
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I'm not too motivated to move Bryant out. I'm in no rush to promote Baez. He's had a 6-day hot streak and has found a swing that he says he hasn't had for two years. Maybe he'd lost it for two years and now having found it for six days, it's found forever. I hope. But if so, it will do him no harm to lock in and show that it works consistently, and to produce for weeks or months at Iowa prior to a call up.
I'd also at least consider the concept of trading Baez. He's run hot for six days; will it last? Could be a good "sell-high" moment. If he's a very good prospect, trading a very good hitting prospect for a very good pitcher might be quite fair and sensible.
I admit that *IF* he shows increasing evidence that he's turned the corner and that he's going to be good, I'd be fine with the concept of trading Castro, too. Either way, trade a value, receive a value back.
That we can even be considering such a luxury is rather nice.
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With the amount of power already in their ML roster, it may be ideal to have McKinney be a high, BA, high OBP type with whatever power goes along with that.
Yup.
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Great to see Almora doubling his extra-bases in a single night. And pulling two balls to center field. I've got a feeling he's going to hit another one to left this week! His night pumps his OPS up to .671, fantastic. Would love to see him get on a run. His GO/AO has now dropped to 1.03, good. From the game logs, a lot of those have been infield pops, and obviously a lot of soft flies to right, but still the idea that he's been getting the ball into the air is good. Perhaps in time some of those will become line drives, and eventually an occasional over-the-wall fly ball? Heh, I've got a feeling that his week he's either going to hit a HR or hit another fly/liner to left, perhaps even both!
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With the amount of power already in their ML roster, it may be ideal to have McKinney be a high, BA, high OBP type with whatever power goes along with that.
Our Matt Carpenter. But without the bad beard.
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Almora still shows no signs of speed or power so unless he's best case scenario Sam Fuld (all glove) you'd at least like to see him get his BA up.
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It is easy for people on message boards to trade Baez. Being the GM that trades him is something different, because while he may bust he could also make you look really foolish as well. With him having such extreme outcomes I would rather let him bust with Cubs then trade him. He isn't likely going to get you a young cost controlled ace and that is about the only pitcher he would be worth trading him for. He busts with the Cubs it isn't a huge loss or set back for them.
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blue, have you seen any velocity-type reports on Clifton? I get the feeling his control is always something of a battle, but he's maybe gotten a little better able to avoid the super-wild ones. He seems to be pretty much the one guy in the farm system who's got a strikeout-pitch. Underwood is fast, but doesn't seem to strike many guys out.
Paniagua hasn't allowed a run yet. Wonder if he'll get bumped up to Tennessee within a month if he can keep it going. Perhaps if they don't have so many cancellations in the next month, we'll get a better feel.
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It is easy for people on message boards to trade Baez. Being the GM that trades him is something different, because while he may bust he could also make you look really foolish as well. With him having such extreme outcomes I would rather let him bust with Cubs then trade him. He isn't likely going to get you a young cost controlled ace and that is about the only pitcher he would be worth trading him for. He busts with the Cubs it isn't a huge loss or set back for them.
Interesting point about the fear of looking foolish. Obviously it's a scouting/valuation issue whether a cost-controlled ace would be the only fair value. I could see a Baez type deal kind of like Cashner/Rizzo making sense, but trades like that are certainly unusual and unlikely.
Trading Castro would certainly seem less "fear-of-looking-foolish" risky. Although for whatever reason I wonder whether Castro would actually get fair value. Maybe I overrate him, an maybe GM's have very different valuation, but I wonder whether Castro's public reputation just isn't quite high enough to get worthwhile value in return.
Next winter is a different time, of course. Maybe Castro will have pumped up an .800-OPS year and teams will want him. Maybe he'll be .672-OPS, kinda chunky and kinda slow, and he just won't command much. Beats me.
Obviously for now no trades are happening, and they'll wait and see what happens.
I think Baez as a different-style Zobrist utility-guy could make a lot of sense, perhaps short-term or long. If he's batting 7th and moving around from position to position, he could serve a lot of purpose. When he hits a HR, great. When Herrera is playing, we don't really expect him to be contributing much offensively anyway, and if/when he does it's a treat. If over time Baez showed enough offense to justify a starting job, or to compel a starting job, you could deal with that then. Keeping him as a high-K low-OBP utility guy might give less value than trading him while he's still young enough for buyers to dream for much more. But it could be a good way to serve the roster, and to keep all the guys without making a bad trade, while they sort themselves out.
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Great to see Almora doubling his extra-bases in a single night.
I would never consider it "great" to have a top OF prospect who has been playing regularly double his extra-base output for the season in one mid-May game.... unless the game went about 40 innings.
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It is easy for people on message boards to trade Baez. Being the GM that trades him is something different, because while he may bust he could also make you look really foolish as well. With him having such extreme outcomes I would rather let him bust with Cubs then trade him. He isn't likely going to get you a young cost controlled ace and that is about the only pitcher he would be worth trading him for. He busts with the Cubs it isn't a huge loss or set back for them.
Yes. And if the Cubs are being difficult in their demands for Castillo, I imagine it would take a boatload (the kind of boatload that it's highly unlikely anyone would agree to) in order to trade Baez ... if they ever entertained the idea at all.
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Castro and Castillo to the Mets for Noah would make sense for both teams. I think Castro's value is underrated here. St. Louis thinks he's stupid. Around the rest of the league he's seen as a multiple All Star at 25 with a very friendly contract. Castillo was showcased when the Mets were in town. Yes, the Mets have catchers, but inexperience is killing them NOW. If you were the Mets GM would you trade for a 30 year old Tulo who breaks down at an alarming rate or a healthy Castro at a lot less money? JMO
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I like Castro more than most here, I think. But even so, if Baez and Russell succeed, it makes too much sense to trade Castro not to do so (assuming a good return). I don't think Castro will ever become the sort of plate discipline or guy-with-a-plan-at-the-plate the Cubs like, or that he'll ever become a really consistent and intuitively smart defensive SS. Baez probably won't become a very good plate discipline guy either, but he's both an upgrade in the field (maybe a big upgrade), and he has a genuinely awesome power potential. He's also probably a better (smarter and faster) baserunner as well. If he can learn a decent plate approach and cut down his Ks to a reasonable amount, there's no question he's a better guy to keep than Castro.
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With the amount of power already in their ML roster, it may be ideal to have McKinney be a high, BA, high OBP type with whatever power goes along with that.
BINGO!
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It is easy for people on message boards to trade Baez. Being the GM that trades him is something different, because while he may bust he could also make you look really foolish as well. With him having such extreme outcomes I would rather let him bust with Cubs then trade him. He isn't likely going to get you a young cost controlled ace and that is about the only pitcher he would be worth trading him for. He busts with the Cubs it isn't a huge loss or set back for them.
Or, he could be involved in a trade that helps both clubs. But people rarely admit that those trades exist because they're too busy being focused on "winning" trades.
Plus, if the Cubs are employing a GM (or President of Baseball Operations) that's worried about trading a player that might make them look foolish down the road, I would prefer that executive seek employment elsewhere.
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Could a trade happen that helps both teams sure. If you don't want to look foolish you need peak Baez value, top 5 hitting prospect type value for him. With all of his questions with contact I doubt that happens. The Cubs have a fair number of good prospects that are rule 5 eligible that need to be traded or exposed. My guess is you are looking at those types of moves. Beane might be a guy to trade with. He has some starting pitching, Zobrist and pen arms that can help the Cubs.
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If you think Baez is a top-5 hitting prospect, then obviously don't trade him. Trade Castro, or make one of the two of them a multi-position utility player. I think you may perhaps scout Baez more favorably than many other people do, but as always it's a scouting question.
A question, I suppose, is how favorably Theo and Hoyer and McLeod evaluate him. If they still scout him as greatly as you do, then it's not even a question.
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I have zero clue what Baez is going to be. He has a large amount of talent and a huge bust potential. If you don't want to look stupid you have to value him in a trade what he has 1 year ago and I don't think you are going to get that for him. Moustakisis, the 3B from KC, took almost 2000 PA before he figured it out. With what the Cubs have on offense right now, and Baez's defensive value I would give him the time to figure it out. We as fans tend to take a super short term view of things and I don't think this FO will have spent all this time sucking to try and win in 1 year when they have a huge window to compete. The team should be upgraded, but my sense is it will be smaller moves and not Hamels, Cueto exc...
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Will be very surprised if there's an in-season trade of Castro or Baez.
1. Shakes up club if Castro is moved in-season--good idea if club is winning?
2. Still won't really know if Bryant can stay at 3B--might need somebody to move to 3B.
3. Can't count on Baez even if he clobbers AAA--did that in 2014 and then overmatched in majors.
Bring up Baez in June (after super-2) and get him 200 more PAs in majors. If Baez hits and satisfied about Bryant at 3B--THEN trade Castro. Doesn't necessarily have to be for a pitcher---could be OFer--just get 100 cents on dollar. That would be a major return.
Scared of trading a high upside guy, such as Baez. At 21, Castro seemed a high upside guy. But, four years later, Castro is still same offensive guy. Think this is the guy.
Concerned about trading a modest K guy (Castro) to make room for a high K guy (Baez), yes, but Baez--if he hits--is upgrade over Castro in every facet of the game.
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The Mets don't have any interest in Castro according to the NY media. It's Russell they want.
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Too damn bad.
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But I guess everybody's got a price so they better be willing to pay massively.
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Let them pound sand.
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Russell for Harvey, Syndergaard, Degrom and the lefty at AAA. I kid, sort of.
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Just for Craig, Almora decided ground balls stink and home runs are fun.
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Great to see Almora doubling his extra-bases in a single night. And pulling two balls to center field. I've got a feeling he's going to hit another one to left this week! His night pumps his OPS up to .671, fantastic. Would love to see him get on a run. His GO/AO has now dropped to 1.03, good. From the game logs, a lot of those have been infield pops, and obviously a lot of soft flies to right, but still the idea that he's been getting the ball into the air is good. Perhaps in time some of those will become line drives, and eventually an occasional over-the-wall fly ball? Heh, I've got a feeling that his week he's either going to hit a HR or hit another fly/liner to left, perhaps even both!
I called it! HR to left.
LaStella with two hits.
With Russell able to play SS, perhaps as well or maybe even better than Castro, LaStella could play 2B/3B and Russell could move to SS as needed. So, LaStella could basically replace Herrera now, one he finishes his rehab.
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I didn't want to go back and find that. ;)
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Baez had a fun AB.
Gets a called strike, foul, foul, foul, foul, foul, ball, foul, double
Edit: walked his first AB
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Castro and Castillo to the Mets for Noah would make sense for both teams. I think Castro's value is underrated here. St. Louis thinks he's stupid. Around the rest of the league he's seen as a multiple All Star at 25 with a very friendly contract.
I don't think that would make sense for the Cubs. A three time all star shortstop at age 25 with a cheap long term contract is worth (in my opinion) much more than a single, unproven (no matter how promising) pitcher, regardless of tools.
Perhaps Syndergaard and Wheeler together. Perhaps Harvey alone. And I wouldn't add in Castillo in either one.
At one time, I believed that TOR pitchers were the most valuable commodity in baseball. I no longer think that. In this day and age when many pitchers throw in the high nineties, and correspondingly, many pitchers go down with injuries, coupled with what seems to be a coming dearth of offense, I think the value has shifted to offense, especially middle of the field players.
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Perhaps Syndergaard and Wheeler together. Perhaps Harvey alone.
My sides.
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I'm sure that is the Met's reaction. Which is why no trade will be made.
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If Castro was on the Mets, he would lead the team in RBIs, four more than anyone else. That is pretty good offensive production from a shortstop, especially to a team that has trouble scoring runs.
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Stinnett to the DL. I don't know what for.
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If Castro was on the Mets, he would lead the team in RBIs, four more than anyone else. That is pretty good offensive production from a shortstop, especially to a team that has trouble scoring runs.
If Castro were on the Mets, he likely would not have had as many guys on base when he came to bat and almost certainly would have fewer RBI.
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Stinnett to the DL. I don't know what for.
Normally it's because they're disabled.
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Stinnett to the DL. I don't know what for.
Hopefully not for another line drive to his testicles.
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Almora: 2-4, HR, 2 RBI, K
Vogelbach: 0-1, 3 BB, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_16_jacaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Zagunis: 2-6, 3B, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_16_myrafa_cmcafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
South Bend:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_16_souafx_swmafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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If Castro was on the Mets, he would lead the team in RBIs, four more than anyone else.
It helps having a bunch of runners on in front of you. Castro's OPS with runners on is .588 and with RISP .624
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Edwards 3K/1BB in his inning. Stadium gun had him throwing 95's and a 96.
Corey Black as well as Stinnett to the DL.
Az Phil speculates Boise rotation to include: Sands, Steele, Austin Willis, Jose Paulino, and 6'6" 20-year-old Oscar de la Rosa. Phil said de la Rosa throws 94, with curve and change. He pitched briefly two summers ago at age 18, then was the ace of the DSL staff last summer. Paulino was very good in DSL two years ago, and last year I had high hopes for him, but he struggled in rookie league. Seems to be doing much better this spring again. Could be a very interesting rotation there.
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Baez: 1-3, 2B, BB, K, 2 E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_16_iowaaa_okcaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Almora's homer; cherish it:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=118700383&topic_id=18630668&c_id=&sid=milb
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It helps having a bunch of runners on in front of you. Castro's OPS with runners on is .588 and with RISP .624
His OPS is low because he has driven in quite a few runs with ground out and fly outs. Doesn't add to RISP but it provides runs.
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His OPS is low because he has driven in quite a few runs with ground out and fly outs. Doesn't add to RISP but it provides runs.
He only has 22 RBI, and at least 3 of those have come on his 3 HR, leaving only 19 possible RBI to have come on his ground outs or fly outs. In fact, he did it once on the 22nd of April with a runner on 3rd and no outs, and again on May 5th when he grounded out with the bases loaded and one out, and then two on May 16th when he hit a deep sac fly with a runner on 3rd and one out and then later in the game with a one out grounder and a runner on 3rd. One of those four, the SF, does not hurt his BA RISP because it does not count as an AB, and if all three of the others were counted as singles, his OPS with runners on base would only be 30 OPS points higher than it now is, for .654.
Castro has come up to bat with a total of 111 runners on base this year, and an average player with his # of AB would have had only 89 runners on base.
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Schwarber with 2 HR so far today. It gives him 9 on the year. Almora with a bunt single and a walk today. I wonder when Schwarber's bat forces him to Iowa?
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"This guy is a wrecking machine!" - Mickey Goldmill (Burgess Meredith)
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Schwarber is now slugging .676.
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Schwarber is now slugging .676.
Is he out-slugging Almora's OPS?
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No, Almora is somewhere north of .714.
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Schwarber and Vogelbach are 1st and 2nd respectively in slugging in the Southern League, and also in OPS. They are 2nd and 3rd in OBP, with the only player ahead of them a 28-year-old with more than 60 fewer AB.
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Almora, on fire, with a bunt hit, a line single, a line out, and a walk in game one.
His OPS after game one was up to .737. Nice, hope he can keep it going. Hopefully that's goodbye to sub-.700 OPS for the duration of the season.
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He's Mark Grace in CF.
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I'm a big Almora believer, but we should be so lucky.
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Grace led an entire decade in hits and doubles, hit .286 or better a dozen times, and had 400 more walks than strikeouts over his career. If Almora is half the offensive player Grace was we should take it and run.
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Grace led an entire decade in hits and doubles, hit .286 or better a dozen times, and had 400 more walks than strikeouts over his career. If Almora is half the offensive player Grace was we should take it and run.
While I agree with the basic point, I suspect that if Almora were literally half the offensive player Grace was, no one would be happy. A .143 BA would not go very far.
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Schwarber: 2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI, K
Almora: 2-3, BB, SB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_17_jacaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Schwarber: 0-2, 2 BB, K
McKinney: 2-2, 2B, BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_17_jacaax_tenaax_2&t=g_box&sid=milb
Myrtle Beach:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_17_myrafa_cmcafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Baez: 0-3, K, HBP
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_17_iowaaa_okcaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Torres: 3-5, 2 2B, 3 RBI, 2 K, E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_17_souafx_swmafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Schwarber's second homer:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=120057583&topic_id=18601616&c_id=&sid=milb
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While I agree with the basic point, I suspect that if Almora were literally half the offensive player Grace was, no one would be happy. A .143 BA would not go very far.
Besides, a three foot tall center fielder would look silly
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I'm on the road back from Florida. Any word on what injury Stinnett has?
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Ryan Williams is taking his place above Stinnett as a prospect I think. He is sure taking advantage of his opportunity. And also, Im begining to think Torres is legit. Lots of depth in our system now
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Article on Schwarber:
http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150517&content_id=124981892&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb
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http://m.cubs.mlb.com/news/article/125117408/jim-callis-kris-bryant-highlights-prospect-team-of-the-week
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Javier Baez is at short and bats third for Iowa tonight.
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Somebody tweeted Cubs Den pictures of Baez this year vs last year. This year he is standing on top of the plate like Rizzo. The speculation is that it will help him to cover the outside of the plate better and let him use his bat speed to hit the pitches inside.
Craig, I think Cubs Den tweeted or mentioned that Clifton was sitting around 92, but as he gains mass the hope is he will gain velocity.
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Jeremy Null returns to earth. 5 innings, 12 hits, 5 runs.
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He got BABIP'd. 7 of the hits where on ground balls and 1 was described as a soft fly to CF. It happens to every GB pitcher. The 5 K's are nice and if he could keep it up.
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Baez: 1-4, SB, K, E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_18_iowaaa_okcaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 1-4, BB, K, PO/CS, E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_18_souafx_lanafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
McKinney: 0-2, 2 BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_18_jacaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Venezuelan team's opener:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_18_vcurok_vtirok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
MB idle.
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Gleybor Torres and Billy McKinney make BA's early-season breakout team.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/baseballist-early-season-breakout-prospects-10-minor-leagues/
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Scott Frazier threw an inning of where he only walked 1 and didn't hit a batter. Progress.
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Bill Mitchel reported that Cease pitched again, was fast (94-96, touching 98-99), but walked three of four guys.
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Jeremy Null returns to earth. 5 innings, 12 hits, 5 runs.
He got BABIP'd. 7 of the hits where on ground balls and 1 was described as a soft fly to CF. It happens to every GB pitcher. The 5 K's are nice and if he could keep it up.
And he had probably benefitted from an unusually lucky on the BABIP in his prior games. It tends to even out.
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After his 3-game hot streak, and three night above the .700-OPS mark, Almora has settled back with a 1-12 run and has settled back below .700. Still, not excessive grounders. A line out that he pulled to short; a failed bunt; and a fly to right. And a K, *called*. Kind of nice to see him taking enough to get called out at times.
Edwards stretched out to 2.1 innings, 45 pitches. Walked the first two guys and three total, and if the box score is accurate more than half his pitches were balls. Needing 45 pitches to get 7 outs, without allowing any hits, is kind of high-volume, I think. But, 4 K's no hits isn't bad.
Paniagua another no-walk game. He's been very effective. Not sure he's as fast as he was once touted to be, and he's not K'ing tons, but he's throwing strikes which is nice.
Tseng hasn't been very good or very durable. Seems like he gets by OK for 3 or 4 innings most games, then gives up a few runs in the fifth.
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Schwarber: 0-2, 2 BB, K
Pineyro: 7-4-0-0-3-6
Edwards: 2-0-0-0-3-3
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_19_jacaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Zagunis: 1-2, 3 BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_19_frdafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
South Bend:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_19_souafx_lanafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_19_vtirok_vcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Iowa rained out.
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Cubs Den had Pineryo off of the stadium gun last game 91-93. Is that a pretty accurate gun? If he's throwing that hard with command and a good change up that makes him really interesting. I wonder if he might see Iowa they way he is pitching.
Panigua had another good outing and it would be nice to get him to AA.
Arguello moved from Chicago to Mesa so he might competing with Arizona Phil to provide EST info which would be nice.
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Cubs Den had Pineryo off of the stadium gun last game 91-93. Is that a pretty accurate gun? If he's throwing that hard with command and a good change up that makes him really interesting. I wonder if he might see Iowa they way he is pitching....
Thanks, Blue. Yes, that's encouraging, and playable, velocity.
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Almora and Bijan Rademacher collided in the outfield trying to make a catch today. Both were motionless for some time. There was an 8-minute delay and both are now out of the game.
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That would likely be concussion #2 for Almora, so expect him to miss a decent chuck of time.
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Almora sure seems stricken with bad luck.
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Here's video and a report of the collison:
http://m.cubs.mlb.com/news/article/125577540/pair-of-chicago-cubs-prospects-involved-in-outfield-collision
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Just a baseball observation, but that was some nice range by Almora to get to the ball. Worries about his speed limiting him in CF seem to be unfounded. Hopefully they are both OK and Almora didn't get another concussion.
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I don't know if I have ever seen two baseball players collide harder. Usually, one of them knocks the other backwards, but in this case, they each bounced backwards.
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Vogelbach: 2-3, BB, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_20_jacaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Myrtle Beach:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_20_frdafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 0-5, 2 K, E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_20_souafx_lanafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_20_vcurok_vtbrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Iowa off.
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Any scouting reports on Chesney Young? Looked like roster fill when drafted but he has hit quite well since signing. 6'1 at 2B so not an undersized guy. Turns 23 after the season. Any reports?
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That collision didnt look that bad to me.
Ive seen much worse.
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chgojhawk, I think Chesny Young grew up in the East Cobb/Atlanta baseball hotbed as a middle infielder who could hit. Good pedigree.
6'0, not real big frame, so not projected to hit for power, but doesn't strike out much and knows how to play the game. Who knows about any A-level guys, but he's worth keeping an eye on and could well be a guy who makes it to the show because he's got a high baseball IQ.
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Per Arizona Phil:
The Eloy Jimenez HR gives him the team lead with two, and he is now hitting 317/348/583 in 19 Cactus League EXST games (66 PA). In addition to the two home runs, Eloy also has four doubles and is tied for the team lead in triples with three (tied with Kevin Encarnacion), and he leads the team in RBI (15 ) and in runs scored (11). He has three walks and ten strikeouts in the 66 PA, and he has also stolen three bases (no CS).
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Frandy De LaRosa is also hitting which is a pleasant surprise.
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Torres was pulled from the SB game after limping running to first.
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Bummer. That's too bad.
Baez has 8 errors in 20 games. Heh, that would prorate to a 60+ error season in the majors, if he was an every-day guy. I know one of the primary reasons they've wanted him up was how good he's supposed to be defensively. But man, that's an impressive error frequency.
Szczur has done a nice job hitting in his visits to Iowa. And he doesn't seem to be getting knocked off his game, psychologically or performance-wise, by being a yo-yo man. Lot of guys usually slump for a while after getting sent down. Nice for him.
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So Javy cant hit or field?
Remind me again why we're so eager to trade Castro?
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We're getting rid of all the guys you like, Jiggs. We voted on it and sent the results to Hoyer.
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Schwarber: 0-2, 2 BB, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_21_tenaax_monaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_21_vtbrok_vcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Baez: 0-3, BB, 2 K, E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_21_tacaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Zagunis: 4-4, 2B, RBI, CS
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_21_frdafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Clifton: 5-5-6-4-3-6
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_21_souafx_lanafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Zagunis now over .900, leading the league in average and OBP.
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Zagunis now over .900, leading the league in average and OBP.
But how is his pitch framing? ;-)
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Not Welly Castillo territory but good enough.
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Just for fun I looked up who was catching Kyle Hendricks this year. Worst starts: Wellington Castillo Best starts: Miguel Montero.
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What has gotten into Batista?
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Javy's 2-3 with a dinger.
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Schwarber with #10.
Baez with a double and HR. His first AB he lined into a double play to a LF.
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Schwarber's homer from a fan camera behind the plate:
https://twitter.com/pinakk12/status/601920227916513280/video/1
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Zagunis: 1-3, SF, 2 RBI, BB
Underwood: 6-6-2-2-2-4, 2 HR
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_22_potafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: DNP
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_22_bgrafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_22_vphrok_vcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Torres has hamstring tightness. He might be out a few weeks.
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Schwarber: 1-3, HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, K
Vogelbach: 1-5, 3 K
Edwards: 2-0-0-0-2-4, May: 12 IP, 3 H, 7 BB, 23 K, 2 ER
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_22_tenaax_monaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Baez: 2-5, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, K, E (9)
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_22_tacaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Edwards: 2-0-0-0-2-4, May: 12 IP, 3 H, 7 BB, 23 K, 2 ER
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_22_tenaax_monaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
That's pretty good (granted the BB are a little high).
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40 pitches for 2 innings tonight. The other day he was I think 49 pitches for 2.1 innings. Clearly not pitching to contact as a reliever. Don't think it would translate well to rotation with the same 20-pitches-per-inning type approach. But, perhaps also speaks to hard his stuff is to hit. When so many AB's result in K or BB, obviously guys aren't putting too many of the strikes he does throw into play.
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Yeah, his command is going to be an issue in relief. Hard to believe he's being groomed to be counted on with the major league team this year.
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I believe he is being groomed as an option. I don't think he is being counted upon.
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Schwarber's homer:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=126919783&topic_id=18601616&c_id=&sid=milb
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http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=127448983&topic_id=18601626&c_id=&sid=milb
Baez HR...absolute bomb.
Is there anything more awkward than minor league PBP guys?
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Corey Black and Stinnett were activated from the DL today. Radenmacher went on the DL, Bruno activated. No move with Almora.
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Did Almora get placed on the DL? *If* this is his second concussion of the season already, wouldn't he be automatically out for much more than 7 games minimum?
Maybe they didn't diagnose it as a concussion? Was his dive earlier this season designated/labelled as a concussion? Or did we just assume so? Can't remember.
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Did Almora get placed on the DL? *If* this is his second concussion of the season already, wouldn't he be automatically out for much more than 7 games minimum?
Maybe they didn't diagnose it as a concussion? Was his dive earlier this season designated/labelled as a concussion? Or did we just assume so? Can't remember.
Almora must not have suffered a second concussion when he collided with Rademacher, or he'd have quickly gone on the DL.
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He isn't playing again today, so I think it is still possible it is a concussion. I don't think they have a concussion DL in the minors. he would be out a minimum of 7 days after his symptoms resolve, but this is a fast changing area of medicine so it wouldn't shock me if they kept him out longer. It maybe they are ok playing with a short bench right now.
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Tommy Birch @TommyBirch 8m8 minutes ago
Madison on Kyle Schwarber's career as a catcher: "We're more certain than ever that he's going to stay behind the plate long term." #Cubs
Tommy Birch @TommyBirch 2m2 minutes ago
Madison on Schwarber in Des Moines this season: "I don't think it's out of the question by any means. I could see that." #Cubs #PCL #MiLB
Tommy Birch @TommyBirch · 5m 5 minutes ago
Madison on Billy McKinney in Iowa this season: "I don't think so. I think Billy did a really good job for the 1st month of the season."
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Tommy Birch @TommyBirch · 10m 10 minutes ago
Madison said that RHP Blake Parker is in Arizona rehabbing and just signed back with the #Cubs on a minor league deal. #PCL #MiLB
Tommy Birch @TommyBirch · 15m 15 minutes ago
Madison on Daniel Vogelbach: "Vogie is making it interesting for us." #Cubs #PCL #MiLB
ommy Birch @TommyBirch · 18m 18 minutes ago
Madison said that RHP Pierce Johnson is still in Extended Spring Training. Hopes to have him in Tennessee in the beginning of June. #Cubs
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Tommy Birch @TommyBirch 8m8 minutes ago
Madison on Kyle Schwarber's career as a catcher: "We're more certain than ever that he's going to stay behind the plate long term." #Cubs
But Jim Bowden said Schwarber would be playing LF for the Cubs this year. Let me think ... who has the most credibility ... hmmmm.
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Baez has two more errors tonight and has now committed 11 in less than 22 games.
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You forget to mention his 2 hits.
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It was actually a conscious decision to point out the two errors since he's now on pace to commit about 80. I figured that was pretty relevant even if others don't.
And just an FYI, he had one hit when I posted so it would've been impossible to mention two hits.
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It was actually a conscious decision to point out the two errors since he's now on pace to commit about 80. I figured that was more of a relevant story than two singles.
And just an FYI, he had one hit when I posted so it would've been impossible to mention two hits.
No offense, but you figured wrong. If Javier Baez fails to become a useful major league baseball player, it will have very little - if not nothing - to do with defensive shortcomings.
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Baez has to make contact. We all get that. But if he's making 60 errors a year it isn't going to matter.
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You're not a dope. What do you think the likelihood of that is?
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Don't know. What was the likelihood of him committing 11 errors in 22 games?
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Seems to me much, much, much higher than committing 60 in a major league season.
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Are you saying the amount of errors he's made so far isn't at all disturbing/discouraging?
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I would classify it as a virtually meaningless anomaly.
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I suppose it is theoretically possible that he starts make contact and forgets how to field and throw the ball, but it is unlikely. The two errors happened on the same play. He booted a ball and then threw it away trying to make up for it.
Without seeing the plays or getting a good description of the how the errors happened I wouldn't be really concerned about it.
Edit: Baez K'd in his next AB, but it was on a called strike 3. While decreasing the strike outs is important he has also increased to proportion that are on called strike 3. That is a good sign that a change in approach is happening as well.
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I have been a proponent of Baez, at least of his talent. But he's made errors before. Rey Ordonez he is not.
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Baez: 3-4, 2 RBI, BB, K, 2 E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_23_tacaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Schwarber: 0-4, 3 K 16-73 (.219), 24 K's in May
Black: 5-1-0-0-0-6
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_23_tenaax_monaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Stinnett: 3-4-1-1-1-3
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_23_bgrafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Myrtle Beach:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_23_potafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_23_vcurok_vphrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Two of the Baez hits were infield hits, and he's lifted his BABIP to .410. I'd like to hope he might get a fair share of infield hits to 3rd. With his big swing and his pull power, I'd guess 3B's might play him extra deep. And perhaps with his big swing it's also hard for 3B to get a good jump on a ball when he tops it kind of slowly? I could also imagine he might him some very hard balls that fielders might block, but might have trouble handling cleanly.
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Baez had 44 E in 123 games two years ago. May be that he can make a variety of plays that Micky Morandini never could, but that's he'll always make variably more errors as well. We'll see.
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If Javier Baez fails to become a useful major league baseball player, it will have very little - if not nothing - to do with defensive shortcomings.
If Baez continues making errors at the rate of one every two games, it is more than reasonable to concludes defensive shortcomings may well have something to do with his use as a major league player. Pointing to small sample size may well make sense. Dismissing the concern outright does not.
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I would classify it as a virtually meaningless anomaly.
In which case so are the statistical results of each and every single game Chris posts, as well as as all of the nuggets he extracts from those games. ALL of them, taken individually, were anomolies. Every last HR Babe Ruth ever hit was an anomoly.
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Not only does NumbNuts not understand the meaning of the word, he also doesn't know how to spell it.
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Jeter once made 60 errors in a season in the minors. Although he was never a top defensive shortstop, it didn't really prevent him from having a decent career.
Certainly, if Baez has 60 errors per year in the majors, he will not survive. Maddon was extremely impressed with Baez's defense this spring, but perhaps he doesn't look at the stat sheets.
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http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150523&content_id=126237378&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb
Candelario's 2 homer game
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Just less than one of every 15 of Ruth's AB produced homeruns, meaning they were all abnormalities in that a HR was not the way his ABs normally ended. They were all anomalies. But when anomalies become frequent enough, or there are enough of them in aggregate, they are worth noting.
11 errors in 22 games would seem to qualify, particularly when combined with having made more than one in every three games in his last full season of minor league ball.
The issue here is not whether my nuts are numb, nor is it the spelling of the word "anomaly," or even its definition. The issue is simply whether when someone such as Baez has had a history of enough errors to create some level of concern it is reasonable to note when he has made his 11th error in 22 games.
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With the release of Ben Wells does Jake Stinnett now have the worst command of any Cub minor league pitcher?
Looks like the 4time is the charm for Soto in AA; he has an OPS > 0.700 this year.
The early success for failed starters Tayler Scott and Juan-Carlos Paniagua makes you wonder if all starters are better prospects than all relievers.
Was it only February when Sports Weekly listed Arismendy Alcantara as a top 10 name to know for 2015
Weak arm? Charcer Burks has played only LF this year.
Wasn't thrilled by the Cub selection of Zagunis after I found out they didn't see him as a catcher. ... but he has hit well .... at least he's hit well when you include his walks
I've never viewed Pin-Chieh Chen as a power hitter .. but after his hot start at Myrtle Beach following his demotion.. he has the highest ISO of any Cub minor league outfielder outside of McKinney (this was as of a few days ago and di not include power hitting Szczur)
John Andreoli has been quietly having a good season, Is his strong start for real or a PCL illusion?
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Alcantara and Baez each HR in the first inning. Donn Roach, who's been having a very effective spring, removed after two batters.
Baez at 4 HR. His K/HR ratio is now down to 6:1.
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But he's a lousy fielder.
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Roach got hit in the leg with a ball.
Maddon thinks Schwarber could help the Cubs this year.
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Baez with HR #2 today.
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According to Chicago Cubs Online, Anthony Varvaro has a torn labrum and will have season-ending surgery. The Red Sox have assumed responsibility for his salary, medical expenses and rehab, and he's no longer a member of the Cubs' organization.
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Torn labrums suck.
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After digesting all the discussion of Baez' fielding, I checked to see how many of Roach's runs allowed (12) were unearned (1).
What major league comps are there to a AAA pitcher who strikes out less than 4 batters every nine innings? Clearly, he is keeping the ball down --giving up only 2 HR in 50 IP.
Not sure he has pitched in the least pitcher friendly parks in the PCL - one Colorado start
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For qualified pitchers by innings ERA/FIP/xFIP
2010- none
2011- Brad Penny 5.30/5.02/4.77
2012- Henderson Alvarez 4.85/5.18/4.42
2013- None
2014- None
2015- Jeremy Guthrie 4.75/4.76/5.12
Kyle Gibson 2.98/4.39/4.78
Kyle Lobenstein 4.34/4.12/4.48
He would to to induce a large amount of weak contact ground balls to make it work or a real high percentage of infield flies along with very few walks. Just too many balls in ball.
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According Arizona Phil Scott Frazier actually had an inning with walking anyone. 12 pitches and 7 strikes. He faced only left handed hitters and it seems the Cubs set it up that according to Phil. He topped out at 96 and was throwing mostly 94-95.
Pierce Johnson was 90-92 with his fastball and got rocked.
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Whatever injury Torres had, he is back in the line up today. One for two so far.
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Almora is back too. 0-3 with a line out to LF for Craig.
Torres was hamstring tightness.
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Skulina: 6-4-1-1-2-6
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_24_potafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Schwarber: 3-4, K
McKinney: 2-4, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_24_tenaax_monaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Baez: 2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI, BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_24_tacaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Torres: 2-4, 2 RBI, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_24_bgrafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Almora is back too. 0-3 with a line out to LF for Craig.
Torres was hamstring tightness.
Nice. Almora pulling an air ball to left, he's obviously been resting for some days. But that's nice to see. He's gotten one single in his last five starts, what goes up must come down. His OPS is still a hair north of .650, and may be due for an up-tick.
Nice to see Torres back and hitting.
Skulina's had some capable starts recently, his FIP looks a lot better than his ERA. With a K-per-inning, and 36K/36IP/14BB/2HR, those numbers look OK, actually. Hopefully he'll get into a groove and look like a prospect before the summer's done.
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Baez is still short of 100 PA this season (96), but his SO rate is only 25% of PA (or 27.5% of AB). That's a nice improvement over last season (30% of PA, 33.5% of AB) in AAA. And his OPS is more than 100 points higher than last season. Encouraging.
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Best news is his contact percentage (actual swings) is >70%. If he's keeps that up, drool.
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Baez is now 24K/5HR at Iowa. That's now very close to his minor-league career ratio (4.6K/1HR).
reb has noted that Baez has already handled PCL for a while last year, without being able to handle mlb. Questioned whether handling PCL again would really prove anything, nothing new there. Hard to know. But I'd questioned whether, following his big-league/winter-ball/spring-training struggles, whether he actually would be able to reprise his PCL hot stretch. So, I'm thrilled that's happened. And perhaps he has made some adjustments that will better carry over, time will tell. What goes up must come down of course, so he's due to freeze over again. Will be interesting to see how well he can sustain hot stretch, and how well he can limit the inevitable freeze periods.
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Baez being able to do well in AAA right now doesn't really prove he can do it in the majors. But if he is NOT able to perform well in AAA right now, it would go a long way to indicate that he probably can NOT do it in the majors.
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Baez has some weird splits. He's killing righties and struggling against lefties. Also, his OPS is 550 points better at home.
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This is better than his hot stretch previously. It doesn't guareentee he can hit MLB pitching, but what he has done is really freaking cool.
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Good to see.
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One of Baez' homers as well as Alcantara's can be seen in this highlight video:
http://whotv.com/2015/05/24/baez-blasts-2-homers-i-cubs-win/
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As reported in Chicago Cubs Online (from Baseball America), through the first 38 games in Double AA, Kyle Schwarber is replicating what Kris Bryant did last season:
H-AB 2B 3B HR BB K OBP SLG OPS
Kyle 37-121 6 1 10 31 33 .442 .620 1.061
Kris 46-142 9 1 11 20 46 .426 .620 1.045
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Best news is his contact percentage (actual swings) is >70%. If he's keeps that up, drool.
Now let's see him continue to improve for the next 200 Iowa AB before the front office gives in to Maddon's pleas to call Baez up.
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Baez has some weird splits. He's killing righties and struggling against lefties. Also, his OPS is 550 points better at home.
Thanks for that note. Yeah, he's got 13K/60AB vs RHP, and 11K/27AB vs LHP. 27 AB is pretty small sample, obviously. I wonder if he's reduced his swing more versus RH, but still sells-out more vs lefties? Worthless speculation.
The home bit, he just hit 3 HR in this weekend, which happened to be at home.
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This is better than his hot stretch previously. It doesn't guareentee he can hit MLB pitching, but what he has done is really freaking cool.
Yup.
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His AB against lefties
Game 1 1/4 2 K
Game 2 0/1
Game 3 0/1
Game 4 1/2 1 K HR
Game 6 0/2
Game 8 0/3 3 K
Game 11 0/1 1K
2/14 7K to start off. After this game is where he started to warm up. He still hasn't done well against lefties, but I think it is just small sample size affecting it.
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Even without the recent home games, Baez' home-away splits are striking. Before the Tacoma series, he had been 17-51 with 2 HRs at home, and 4-22 with 0 HRs on the road. In the recent home series vs Tacoma, he was 7-16 with 3 HRs.
I wonder whether his emotional state (loss of his sister) might make it more difficult for him to perform on the road. Just speculation, of course. Perhaps he is having an issue hitting lefties and has just happened to get more ABs against lefties on the road. From CuBluejays post, Baez appears to have had roughly equal numbers of ABs vs. lefties at home vs. on the road.
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He's only played 7 road games, 4 occurred in his second series. I wouldn't draw any conclusions from them yet. Players usually do hit better at home vs the road.
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Baez' second homer yesterday:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=130485383&sid=milb
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Vogy pulled from the game after a double with an injury of some sort.
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What what was the John Kruk line, "You can't pull fat."?
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Contraras with three hits today. Putting up these numbers in Tennessee, he is starting to look more and more like a legitimate prospect.
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Baez: 0-3, SF, RBI, K
Alcantara: 3-4, SB, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_25_renaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_25_vtbrok_vcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Schwarber: 0-2, 2 BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_25_tenaax_monaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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I noticed Rubi Silva's BA starting to rise and recalled him getting a decent bonus when he signed out of Cuba. I decided to check out his numbers and was blown away at the anti-walk numbers. 0 walks this season in over 100 ABs. A .279 BA and a .276 OBP. 66 career walks in over 1900 ABs. I don't recall seeing anyone quite like that.
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Tseng finally with a good game. six innings. Two hits. 0 runs. 0 walks. six strike out.
Totally outpitched Giolito. Obviously, Tseng is the better prospect.
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Torres: 3-5, 2 RBI, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_25_bgrafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Myrtle Beach:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_25_potafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Tseng is trying to throw harder this year, says he's added 2-3 mph:
http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150525&content_id=126625288&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb
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Tseng is trying to throw harder this year, says he's added 2-3 mph:
http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150525&content_id=126625288&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb
If he masters the fine art of throwing his fastball with max velocity, max control or somewhere in between, Tseng will be well on his way to becoming a solid mid-rotation starter in the big leagues.
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Tseng is trying to throw harder this year, says he's added 2-3 mph:
http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150525&content_id=126625288&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb
And we wonder why so many pitchers get hurt and need Tommy John.
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Jordan Goresch who saw him last year stated he was throwing 90-93 in a couple of tweets. I was wonder if that means this year he was throwing 92-95. I think you could make a good argument that 90-93 with great command is better than 92-95 with less command.
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Interesting that Tseng claims to be faster, but admits it's been at the expense of some command. Not surprising. I wonder how durable his velocity/command is now, and will be future? Yesterday was only the 3rd start in 7 where he's been able to survive five innings. And it's seemed there have been a handful where he gave up much of his damage in his final inning. Previous game he was 1 run through 4, then gave up a couple in the 5th. I think there have been a couple like that, where it looked like he was going to have a good line, but then it ended up not looking that good.
May be random. May be that he's not strong enough to comfortably sustain the greater velocity for longer? May also be, I suppose, that being only 20 they've got him on a pretty low, tight pitch count, and that he's not that used to going beyond 60 pitches that often yet. Or perhaps he's a shortish guy who just isn't going to be a 110-pitch-per-game workhorse, and that perhaps he'll end up better off in relief. Great to see a really nice game, though.
Hope to see lots more of them.
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This season has been different -- he's determined to throw harder and add velocity -- and on Monday, he showed what the future could hold if he puts it all together.
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"I'm trying to throw harder this year," Tseng said. "Sometimes I miss a little bit with my command, so that's the reason I have more walks this year."
The right-hander said it was "just something I wanted to work on." He said he's gained about 2-3 mph on his pitches in just two months.
With all due respect to Tseng, this to me just shows what's wrong with how much emphasis is placed on velocity and trying to strike everyone out, and again, we wonder why pitchers have been getting hurt so frequently over the last few years.
Just reading between the lines here, Tseng isn't throwing harder because of better mechanics, increased strength training, etc. He's saying he's throwing harder just because he wants to . . . basically it just sounds like he's overthrowing.
And with the way major league teams value velocity and strikeouts, why shouldn't he think that? That's where the money is. You can barely be a major league pitcher anymore if you don't throw at least in the low to mid 90's with wicked, strikeout inducing breaking balls.
In a way, velocity and "double-plus" breaking pitches are almost like steroids for hitters in the 1990's. It's unnatural. It's bad for the health of the pitchers, but as of now, teams really don't give a crap about it or are oblivious to it.
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JR, I think he's throwing harder because either explicitly or subtly he's been told or gotten the impression that throwing hard is the only way to the big leagues.
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I don't think that it is certain that management doesn't "give a crap". As you said, pitchers know that velocity is where the money is at. It is hard to rein them in, even if you want to.
In the 50s and 60s, it was becoming obvious that home run hitters make more money than singles hitters. Suddenly, guys with little power were swinging from their heels in order to raise their home run total from 3 to 13, but added immeasurably to their strike out numbers and with a reduction in batting average. Tough to stop them.
The same thing applies to the old DR slogan, "you can't walk off the island." No matter how badly you want them to develop plate discipline, it is tough to force it on them.
That said, it seems that the current Cubs front office is in favor of command over velocity, and seem to encourage it, just as they encourage plate discipline over a few extra home runs. Hopefully, as they earn the trust of prospects, it will have more effect on them.
In the meantime, when he was originally signed, scouting reports on Tseng was that he could sit at 95 and touch 97. Perhaps he is trying to find a happy medium.
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I think the increased usage of the slider is more to blame for pitching injuries increasing rather than overthrowing. I remember even in high school the strain I felt after falling in love with my slider. i backed off the next outing and threw my change-up and fastball and felt just fine. After I only used the slider as a show pitch or to end a long AB.
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If you hadn't been such a wuiss, you would probably be pitching for the Cubs right now.
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Or if I could throw over 80 mph, which I couldn't.
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If you hadn't been such a wuiss, you would probably be pitching for the Cubs right now.
Or if I could throw over 80 mph, which I couldn't.
hasn't hurt Eddie J.
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Or if I could throw over 80 mph, which I couldn't.
Just think. If you hadn't been such a wuiss, you could have been our first one-armed poster by now.
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Another reason to hope Hendricks succeeds. So much emphasis on velocity, it's easy to forget that real pitching is disrupting the timing of hitters.
Of course, velocity helps with that, too, if the off-speed stuff is reasonably solid. But disruption of timing is the REAL deal, as Professor Maddux conclusively proved.
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Just saw an ad saying that the Iowa Cubs will be broadcast on CSN-Chicago (I think) on Sunday at 6:00.
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Torres: 1-3, BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_26_souafx_dayafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_26_vcurok_vtbrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Iowa rained out, everyone else off.
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A Torres double from 10 days ago. This ball got up and in on him and he drove it just shy of the warning track in LCF.
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=120762683&sid=milb
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Cubs Den went to the EST game, he didn't always see the radar gun of a Rockies scout so take it for what it's worth.
Jose Paulino, LHP, was 92, topping at 94. He's lanky so their might be mor velocity. The secondaries where blah.
Pierce Johnson was 91-93 and might have topped out above Paulino.
Andin Diaz, LHP. He's 22 and was in Arizona last year after 2 DSL stints. He was throwing mid-90's with effort and might be shorter. Likely more of a reliever.
Ejoy is a big guy and he hit the ball hard.
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Jordan Goresch who saw him last year stated he was throwing 90-93 in a couple of tweets. I was wonder if that means this year he was throwing 92-95. I think you could make a good argument that 90-93 with great command is better than 92-95 with less command.
I think it would be difficult to make a convincing argument otherwise.
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I noticed Rubi Silva's BA starting to rise and recalled him getting a decent bonus when he signed out of Cuba. I decided to check out his numbers and was blown away at the anti-walk numbers. 0 walks this season in over 100 ABs. A .279 BA and a .276 OBP. 66 career walks in over 1900 ABs. I don't recall seeing anyone quite like that.
In Shawon Dunston's first 1841 major league AB's he had a total of 66 career walks. His career BA was .269. Really don't need to look too far to find someone a bit similar. In the minors, in 1525 AB Dunston had 38 walks. But the only season he has ever had an OBP lower than his BA is this season, and such figures have been produced before for a sample size of only 106 AB.
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Contraras with three hits today. Putting up these numbers in Tennessee, he is starting to look more and more like a legitimate prospect.
Copycat.
While most of the attention at Tennessee has understandably been focused on Vogelbach, Schwarber, Almora and now McKinney, Wilson Contreras now has a slash line of .330/.404/.495/.899 in 97 AB. He just turned 23 yesterday, and this is the first season in three years he has gotten much of a break from catching, playing DH amost half the time. His career K rate is about 18.6, but this year, his first in AA, his K rate is down to 15.6%.
It could be very big if Contreras is developing into a meaningful hitter.
He now has a slash line of .317/.379/.497/.875 in 145 AB with a K rate back to his career rate of 18.6%.
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Something in the water tonight. Almora's homered and walked.
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And the homer was to left-center.
What will Craig have to complain about?
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His bunt single?
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Baez: 0-3, RBI, 2 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_27_renaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
South Bend:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_27_souafx_dayafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_27_vcurok_vphrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Myrtle Beach rained out.
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Schwarber: 2-6, K, game-winning single in 13th
Edwards: 2-0-0-0-0-2, 4 GO, 14 IP, 3 H, 25 K's this month
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_27_mobaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Baez: 0-2, HBP
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_27_renaaa_iowaaa_2&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Baez: 0-3, K, 0-11, 4 K last 4 games
Alcantara: 1-3, BB, SB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_28_renaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Looks like Matt Szczur hit a 3-run, walk-off bomb to win the game in the 9th for Iowa. Sure looks like he would be a good guy to have on the big-league bench!
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Looks like Matt Szczur hit a 3-run, walk-off bomb to win the game in the 9th for Iowa. Sure looks like he would be a good guy to have on the big-league bench!
He's alternating with Lake as they juggle the spare outfielders and relievers. Once one of them is sent down, they can't be recalled for ten days, unless there's an injury.
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Szczur has continued to hit, and his slugging is now .529. Strange, but the guy has now been hitting for 2, 3 months. Very different from last year. Maybe he's figured something out and will be a serviceable 5th outfielder?
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Their hitting coach said he had a huge change with his swing. I gut says one of Lake or Sczuzr gets traded this year.
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Vogelbach out with a hamstring issue:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_28_mobaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
South Bend:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_28_souafx_dayafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Zagunis: 1-3, 2 BB, Assist
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_28_myrafa_cmcafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_28_vphrok_vcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Myrtle Beach GM 2:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_28_myrafa_cmcafa_2&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Arizona Phil wrote this week that, as of now, most likely Rule 5 roster additions after this season are, in order:
1. Vogelbach
2. Pierce Johnson
3. Corey Black
4. Willson Contreras
5. Ivan Pineyro
Kind of interesting that Phil currently has Pineyro more likely protected than Daury Torrez---but Pineyro pitching at higher league level, which is a factor, and plenty of time for guys to get into or lose Rule 5 consideration.
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Edwards was promoted to Iowa.
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He'll be in Chicago soon.
He was always destined to be a reliever so it's good to see him putting things together.
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Arizona Phil wrote this week that, as of now, most likely Rule 5 roster additions after this season are, in order:
1. Vogelbach
2. Pierce Johnson
3. Corey Black
4. Willson Contreras
5. Ivan Pineyro
Kind of interesting that Phil currently has Pineyro more likely protected than Daury Torrez---but Pineyro pitching at higher league level, which is a factor, and plenty of time for guys to get into or lose Rule 5 consideration.
Some of those guys won't be around come August, methinks/mehopes.
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Torres: 2-4, 2B, 3 RBI, K, CS
Stinnett: 5-7-5-5-2-4
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_29_souafx_lcoafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Underwood: 6 IP, 2 R
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_29_myrafa_cmcafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Schwarber: 2-3, 2B, RBI, 2 BB, PB (6)
McKinney: 2-5, 2B, 3B, 2 RBI
Black: 5-3-1-1-1-6
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_29_mobaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Josh Norris @jnorris427 2h2 hours ago Tennessee, USA
Nice outing for Corey Black. Six Ks in five three-hit, one-run innings. 92-95 all outing with nice CH and two-seamer. #Cubs
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Got a bad feeling Schwarber's a DH too.
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Got a bad feeling Schwarber's a DH too.
If he can't catch, you're calling it without even letting him try the outfield every day? May I ask why?
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A few accounts say he's abysmal in the outfield. Probably explains why he hasn't played one inning out there this season.
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Or they are trying to get him experience at catcher? The bat is good enough that he could be a butcher in LF and it wouldn't matter.
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I'm sure they want him to get experience at catcher. But they gave him time in left last year and this year nadda. It's been catcher or DH. That strikes me as telling. They either really believe he's a catcher, which isn't really being borne out, or they are sure he can't play the outfield.
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They either really believe he's a catcher, which isn't really being borne out, or they are sure he can't play the outfield.
Because of 6 passed balls or you've seen him catch recently?
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The passed balls, the CS%, and some reports. I haven't seen him personally except for a few innings in college.
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McKinney's triple:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=136762683&topic_id=18601616&c_id=&sid=milb
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What is Schwarber's CS% this season so far?
I saw lots of Mike Piazza in his fabulous career. He improved lots as a catcher, but was never better than average. Of course, his hitting FAR more than made up for it!
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Alcantara: 3-4, RBI
Baez: 1-4, 3 K; 8th-inning single ended 0-14, 7 K stretch
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_29_iowaaa_elpaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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What is Schwarber's CS% this season so far?
10-50 (20%)
He has 10 passed balls in 48 career games behind the plate.
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19%. Any current reports I've seen have been positive. He is never going to be a gold glove catcher, but with his bat he wouldn't have to be. The PB are rather meaningless without context. The negative reports I would be interested in seeing.
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I'm sure they want him to get experience at catcher. But they gave him time in left last year and this year nadda. It's been catcher or DH. That strikes me as telling. They either really believe he's a catcher, which isn't really being borne out, or they are sure he can't play the outfield.
It isn't possible that they think he can catch, and want to reduce the wear and tear on his legs.
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It isn't possible that they think he can catch, and want to reduce the wear and tear on his legs.
That goes under the 'they believe he can catch' option I mentioned. Perhaps that's the case. I sure hope it's the case, but I'm not convinced. Why play him in left last year and not at all this year? Especially considering LF is far more of an issue with the Cubs than catcher.
There was significant skepticism that he could remain behind the plate when he was drafted. Has he improved so much that LF is no longer being considered? I find that very hard to believe.
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19%. Any current reports I've seen have been positive. He is never going to be a gold glove catcher, but with his bat he wouldn't have to be. The PB are rather meaningless without context. The negative reports I would be interested in seeing.
I agree. I'd be surprised if AA pitchers are all hitting their spots. I'm sure there are lots of times hes' getting crossed up or breaking balls are just not breaking. Of course where can we see the rates of other catchers in the minors? I'd like to see a comparison.
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I bet Schwarber is a catcher about like Russell was a SS and Alcantara was a 2nd baseman.
When they think his bat is ready they'll decide where he's gonna play then.
Right now what's it hurting trying to get lucky and turn him into a legitimate catcher?
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I think I answered my own question. I believe its on the MiLB site. Victor Caratini has 0 PB and is 9/38 in CS.
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Well, the question is have they given up on Schwarber in left field and people just don't realize it. This piece was written last fall.
http://beisbols.org/2014/10/16/chicago-cubs-already-done-schwarber/
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I'm sure they want him to get experience at catcher. But they gave him time in left last year and this year nadda. It's been catcher or DH. That strikes me as telling. They either really believe he's a catcher, which isn't really being borne out, or they are sure he can't play the outfield.
What strikes me as telling is that the front office thinks he needs to focus on his catching and his hitting, and not worry about trying to develop his defensive skills as an outfielder too. If and when they're discouraged about his catching, they'll move him to LF.
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If and when they're discouraged about his catching, they'll move him to LF.
Well, that's one assumption. As I said earlier, I'm not convinced Schwarber can play LF or that the Cubs believe he can play LF.
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Well, the question is have they given up on Schwarber in left field and people just don't realize it. This piece was written last fall.
http://beisbols.org/2014/10/16/chicago-cubs-already-done-schwarber/ (http://beisbols.org/2014/10/16/chicago-cubs-already-done-schwarber/)
Is this the best you can do? A single speculative article without a single attributed quote by an (apparently) anonymous blogger? Seriously?
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What strikes me as telling is that the front office thinks he needs to focus on his catching and his hitting, and not worry about trying to develop his defensive skills as an outfielder too. If and when they're discouraged about his catching, they'll move him to LF.
This seems to me to be the pretty obvious conclusion. But it's not sufficiently pessimistic enough, I guess.
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What strikes me as telling is that the front office thinks he needs to focus on his catching and his hitting, and not worry about trying to develop his defensive skills as an outfielder too. If and when they're discouraged about his catching, they'll move him to LF.
agreed...if they felt he couldn't catch, they would not waste time developing an elite, near ready bat there. that'd put him in left field and let him try and learn it. Unless you believe the cubs front office is filled with a bunch of idiots, nothing else makes sense.
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Chris, thanks for the link. It's very plausible that the Cubs have given up on Schwarber for LF. The good news is that other excellent candidates are on the way (e.g. McKinney).
Can Kyle Schwarber become a reasonably competent catcher at the MLB level? Maybe and maybe not. There's SO much uncertainty with the development of minor league guys.
But my guess is that the Cubs will figure it out with Schwarber and find a way to extract significant value from him, whatever that may be.
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Geez, they're trying to develop the guy as a catcher---and, on top of that, they should be looking at him simultaneously at ANOTHER position (where he has played very little)---and have him deal with the difficult transition (for most mortals) to AA from A?
Would call that overload. Think it makes way more sense to DH him when he's not catching, no?
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If Schwarber is deemed unable to catch at the ML level, it would behoove the Cubs to intensively work him in LF. It seems to me that his trade value will suffer dramatically unless he is able to demonstrate his ability to hit ML pitching. His only chance to do that as a Cub will be to catch and/or play the OF. Even if his OF defense is poor, it might be worth it to run him out there in order for him to gain value in a trade to an AL team.
Of course, the ideal outcome would be for Schwarber to become sufficiently skilled defensively to handle catching and/or LF, and thus remain a Cub.
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I bet Schwarber is a catcher about like Russell was a SS and Alcantara was a 2nd baseman.
When they think his bat is ready they'll decide where he's gonna play then.
Right now what's it hurting trying to get lucky and turn him into a legitimate catcher?
So he's a catcher then.
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Well, the question is have they given up on Schwarber in left field and people just don't realize it. This piece was written last fall.
http://beisbols.org/2014/10/16/chicago-cubs-already-done-schwarber/
So said blogger hasn't seen him catch since college or play LF in the minors and bases his opinion off of quotes from Epstein and applies some twisted logic to fit his narrative. He also in the piece doubles down on Schwarber being a horrible draft pick by the Cubs. In other Schwarber related news Keith Law rated him the 15th best prospect in baseball. When I'm asking for reports I'd like a report of somebody that has actually like seen him play this year.
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That goes under the 'they believe he can catch' option I mentioned. Perhaps that's the case. I sure hope it's the case, but I'm not convinced. Why play him in left last year and not at all this year? Especially considering LF is far more of an issue with the Cubs than catcher.
There was significant skepticism that he could remain behind the plate when he was drafted. Has he improved so much that LF is no longer being considered? I find that very hard to believe.
Chris - that seems to be exactly what happened. At the time, I believe that the Cubs front office had doubts that he could be a catcher at the MLB level. But they did with Schwarber exactly what they did with others, such as Amaya, Bruno, Carhart and Mulave. They played him at another position while they had extensive training sessions as a catcher. Some of the above did not improve due to the training sessions, and reverted to other positions (Mulave, Bruno). Others returned to catching more or less full time (Carhart, Amaya). It has been reported that Schwarber made much better than expected progress last year, and convinced the front office that there is a reasonable chance that he can be an acceptable full time catcher, so they are working him at that position much more. Your comment was the first I have ever seen that indicated that there are substantial doubts that Schwarber can't play an acceptable left field. If you come across any, please let me know. I would like to read them.
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Is this the best you can do? A single speculative article without a single attributed quote by an (apparently) anonymous blogger? Seriously?
I posted an article that to me was interesting and thought-provoking. If it's not up to your standards---I have no idea what "is this the best you can do?" means---then so be it.
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So said blogger hasn't seen him catch since college or play LF in the minors and bases his opinion off of quotes from Epstein and applies some twisted logic to fit his narrative. He also in the piece doubles down on Schwarber being a horrible draft pick by the Cubs. In other Schwarber related news Keith Law rated him the 15th best prospect in baseball. When I'm asking for reports I'd like a report of somebody that has actually like seen him play this year.
The piece was written last fall. Schwarber had caught all of 20 games with the Cubs by that point. The writer saw him in college just months prior. Unless Schwarber had somehow improved dramatically in those 20 games that occurred right after he left Indiana, I'm not sure what the point is.
It's great that Law likes Schwarber's bat. Who doesn't? He also says Schwarber's not a ML catcher. Since Law has seen him and is so much more of an expert I take it you now also believe Schwarber is not a ML catcher.
As an aside, I didn't post the link so you'd have a report to read. I posted it because I thought it was an interesting take on the subject.
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Well, the question is have they given up on Schwarber in left field and people just don't realize it. This piece was written last fall.
http://beisbols.org/2014/10/16/chicago-cubs-already-done-schwarber/
Sorry Chris - I made my post before I got to your post above. He certainly is questioning Schwarber's ability to play left field, but in my opinion, didn't make much of a case for it. If Schwarber is poor defensively at both positions (and there are those making that case) why would they make him a full time catcher, when defense is much more critical for a catcher than for a left fielder? Kingman could make a living in left field, but would have failed at any other position (and did at third base). Based upon his logic, I could see the Cubs moving him to left field, but not moving him full time to catcher.
This front office seems to be of the opinion that he MIGHT become a catcher, but his bat may be needed in left field. If that is true, they can't have decided that left field is out, since even his backers believe that that is his only other option.
Time will tell.
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The piece was written last fall. Schwarber had caught all of 36 games with the Cubs by that point. The writer saw him in college just months prior. Unless Schwarber had somehow improved dramatically in those 36 games that occurred right after he left Indiana, I'm not sure what the point is.
It's great that Law likes Schwarber's bat. Who doesn't? He also says Schwarber's not a ML catcher. Since Law has seen him and is so much more of an expert I take it you now also believe Schwarber is not a ML catcher.
As an aside, I didn't post the link so you'd have a report to read. I posted it because I thought it was an interesting take on the subject.
Law also hasn't seen him catch this year. He doesn't have to be good or even average to be a really awesome player at catcher. The guy you linked didn't even think he would be a top 100 prospect.
Here's what he said, "Schwarber signed with the Chicago Cubs considerably under slot value, with just a $3.125 million bonus (compared to the slot value of $4.621). While the pick was not lauded, criticism was minimal (barring my reaction, which remains largely true)."
So what did he say post draft, "he Chicago Cubs likely had one of the worst drafts of day one. Before the Cubs caught Schwarber fever, he was projected to go in the 8-24 range, with the lower half of that range probably being more accurate. I compared Schwarber to Dan Vogelbach, also of the Chicago Cubs, in my write-up. He might be slightly better than Vogelbach because it is likely he can hit closer to average, which Vogelbach is currently struggling with. Ignore the talk that he will play catcher. Ignore the talk that he will play left fielder. He’s a first baseman or designated hitter only. He is a first baseman that is 21. Anthony Rizzo, one of the supposed cornerstones of the franchise, is only 24. Where does Kyle Schwarber play exactly? Do they platoon first base with Schwarber and Rizzo? You’re drafting a guy to platoon at first base with the fourth overall pick? I still feel like this is a big prank on me. I could make some peace with it if it were like the AJ Reed situation in Houston, but this was the fourth overall pick, not forty-second. The Cubs literally wasted the fourth overall pick in the draft unless they somehow trade him down the road for another prospect and that’s only possible if Schwarber continues to put up numbers like he did in college. I’ll revisit this in a year, not to see if Schwarber will prove me wrong, but just if he will put up better numbers than Daniel Vogelbach."
The guy was wrong and is digging his heels in. Although he might be a little low on Vogelbach too...
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It's great that Law likes Schwarber's bat. Who doesn't? He also says Schwarber's not a ML catcher. Since Law has seen him and is so much more of an expert I take it you now also believe Schwarber is not a ML catcher.
I have no idea if Schwarber can improve enough to be an MLB catcher. And I don't believe that the Front Office can possibly know that either. But if they didn't think it was POSSIBLE, he would be playing the only other position where he could survive. He seems to think that his not playing left field is an indication that he CAN'T play left field. I think that it is an indication that the Cubs feel he won't HAVE to play left field.
Could he have improved enough last year to convince the front office that he MIGHT be able to handle the catching position? Hoyer himself answered this when he said that when they drafted him, he had no understanding of the basics of the position, but caught on quickly when coached by their staff. Bullshit? Perhaps. Doesn't seem that way to me.
As I said above, time will tell.
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Law also hasn't seen him catch this year.
That makes no sense. If he's seen him play then he's seen him catch. And if he hasn't seen Schwarber play why is he opining on him and moving him well up his prospect list? Furthermore, why are you citing his expertise on Schwarber if he hasn't watched him?
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Here's what he said, "Schwarber signed with the Chicago Cubs considerably under slot value, with just a $3.125 million bonus (compared to the slot value of $4.621). While the pick was not lauded, criticism was minimal (barring my reaction, which remains largely true)."
....
The guy was wrong and is digging his heels in. Although he might be a little low on Vogelbach too...
I'm aware of what he wrote. The guy's opinion on Schwarber's worth as a draft pick might be something to debate but it's not really relevant here. The question is does he have a point about Schwarber's future position and what the Cubs have done with him in LF. He might be wrong, but his contention LAST YEAR that the Cubs were done with Schwarber in LF doesn't look crazy considering they played Schwarber in LF 64% of the time after the draft and now this season have not played him there at all. As I said earlier, maybe they want him soley at catcher for now; I never ruled that possibility out. But I've yet to see any positive reports on Schwarber's defense this year....outside of the Cubs who were never going to publicly say he's struggling.
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Assume the worst unless there is incontrovertible evidence to the contrary.
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Law has a lot of scouting contacts--similar to BA. So, if his scout contacts are telling him something, it's useful information. But, you have to take it for what it's worth--useful, but not the last word on the subject.
Law has admitted he underestimated Schwarber's offense. In his chat this week, Law said he would rate Schwarber the #1 prospect in baseball if he was an Austin Hedges stellar defensive catcher. Of course, Schwarber is a far cry from that defensive level.
Would not surprise me in the least if Schwarber would be terrible in LF. Think it's quite possible that Cubs already know that and are loathe to do that. Pure guesswork for any outsider, lets' face it. Maybe Cubs truly think he'll be adequate in LF but, if I had to guess, would guess he'd probably suck out there. If Schwarber can't catch, seems very likely that his natural position would be 1B--not an option with Cubs for obvious reasons.
Maddon sort of hinted recently that Schwarber might help out major league club in 2015 at some point. Yeah! A third catcher again. Schwarber could take the Mike Baxter role, if there's a Nowacrat move to be made. Don't think so.
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Assume the worst unless there is incontrovertible evidence to the contrary.
Who's assuming anything? I said I am starting to get a bad feeling. When you can cite positive reports from sources other than the Cubs about Schwarber's defense at catcher, or left for that matter, then maybe that feeling will change. There are already excuses being made for his abnormally high PB rate. He has 6 passed balls in 28 games. The next closest TEAMS have 6 passed balls in 47 and 49 games played. He's allowed as many PB's as the next closest TEAM in 20 fewer games, but we just don't have the full picture. There could be any number of legit reasons why this is of little concern.
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Maddon sort of hinted recently that Schwarber might help out major league club in 2015 at some point. Yeah! A third catcher again. Schwarber could take the Mike Baxter role, if there's a Nowacrat move to be made. Don't think so.
Theocracy admits mistakes and makes changes. Sveum, for example. E Jackson to a degree. I think Ross is quickly convincing them that he's a mistake too.
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It's great that Joe likes Junior Lake enough to have heaped praise on him yesterday...let's hope Joe's right and/or some other team sees it that way and offers value for him.
Whether Lake remains a Cub or not, it's been really cool to watch Matt Szczur develop some pop and become another very legit prospect.
Szczur has done very nice work in Iowa so far: 73 ABs, 7 XBHs (3 HR), .315 BA, .373 OBP, .521 SLG, .894 OPS with 5 steals in 7 attempts.
Taken with what he did in the spring, it's clear he's a far more productive hitter than in the past and an interesting one. Can't have enough of those kinds of guys...some make it.
He's just a phenomenal kid, too, so even more reason to root for him!
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I'm aware of what he wrote. The guy's opinion on Schwarber's worth as a draft pick might be something to debate but it's not really relevant here. The question is does he have a point about Schwarber's future position and what the Cubs have done with him in LF. He might be wrong, but his contention LAST YEAR that the Cubs were done with Schwarber in LF doesn't look crazy considering they played Schwarber in LF 64% of the time after the draft and now this season have not played him there at all. As I said earlier, maybe they want him soley at catcher for now; I never ruled that possibility out. But I've yet to see any positive reports on Schwarber's defense this year....outside of the Cubs who were never going to publicly say he's struggling.
1) Law hasn't seen him catch or play this year in the minors.
2) What the guy wrote post draft is relevant, because in the piece you linked he stated it still stood. The guy is wrong on Schwarber and it is nothing, but speculation on his part. His thinking that Schwarber stinks will color his analysis of what is said.
I don't think Schwarber will ever be partially good at catching. I have nothing to back that up with. He doesn't need to be good or average, just anti-awful. Until more scouting reports start to get public of what his catching looks like I'm going to stick with the Cubs saying he can do it. They are certainly backing that up by not playing him anywhere else or than catcher. He DH's on his days off from catching the alternative would be to sit him on the bench.
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Also, as to Schwarber's defensive issues, teams have stolen 40 bases on him in 28 games played, and a couple of those games were late sub-ins. There are only two other TEAMS in the league that have allowed more than 40 SB's (42/46), and that in 20 more games. And that can't all be laid at the feet of the pitchers since Contreras is throwing out 44%.
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1) Law hasn't seen him catch or play this year in the minors.
2) What the guy wrote post draft is relevant, because in the piece you linked he stated it still stood. The guy is wrong on Schwarber and it is nothing, but speculation on his part. His thinking that Schwarber stinks will color his analysis of what is said.
I don't think Schwarber will ever be partially good at catching. I have nothing to back that up with. He doesn't need to be good or average, just anti-awful. Until more scouting reports start to get public of what his catching looks like I'm going to stick with the Cubs saying he can do it. They are certainly backing that up by not playing him anywhere else or than catcher. He DH's on his days off from catching the alternative would be to sit him on the bench.
1) Why are you citing Law then?
2) The piece was from last fall. Schwarber wasn't even ranked that high by Law coming into the year; it's been his offense in AA that has shot him up charts. Further, the writer never said anything about Schwarber stinking. In fact, he praised his offense. What he said was he didn't believe Schwarber could be a ML catcher (also Law's opinion), that the Cubs quietly have/had given up on Schwarber as a viable LF option, and that he was a reach at #4. That of course was his opinion which he gave reasons for including Schwarber going to instructional league. He's right about that. Why would a college junior who has caught since HS need instructs for his defense if it wasn't an absolute mess?
The end game is this:
You say Schwarber just has to be anti-awful behind the plate. Maybe that's true depending on how one defines anti-awful. But is he anti-awful? Is he being used exclusively as a catcher because the Cubs truly believe that's his future and he needs reps? Why did he play so much LF last year if the goal was for him to catch all along? Do the Cubs know if he can play LF if catching isn't in the cards? Where is Schwarber going to play in the fall if, as speculated, he is brought to the majors?
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Would not surprise me in the least if Schwarber would be terrible in LF. Think it's quite possible that Cubs already know that and are loathe to do that. Pure guesswork for any outsider, lets' face it.
He played 36 games in LF last year. They must have some idea of what he looks like out there. If he's Benny Hill in motion then maybe they did quietly drop the possibility. If it's catcher or bust I'm concerned, my pessimism aside.
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bp two days ago...questions bout best catching prospect.
some answers to question. 3 of 5 baseball guys picked schwarber as best, 1 reese mcquire for defense and 1 alfaro for upside. couple of answers for schwarber..seems people surprised by his defense.
NL West scout: Kyle Schwarber, C, Chicago Cubs
Why: “He’s easily the best offensive backstop prospect right now, and he may be the best offensive catching prospect I’ve seen since Mike Zunino. The power tool is plus-plus, the hit tool is plus and he’s gonna get on base.
“Obviously, the big question is whether or not he can stay behind the plate, but look, if teams are going to give guys like Jesus Montero a chance to play catcher, the Cubs would be foolish to not give Schwarber a shot. The good news is, he’s actually progressing there and he looks like he’s getting more athletic and less stiff back there. It wouldn’t surprise me if he was a perennial All-Star behind the plate; he’s a really good player.”
AL Central scout: Schwarber
Why: “I was just as stunned as everyone else when the Cubs took Schwarber as high as they did, I thought he’d go in the top 15 or so, but no way did I think he belonged in the top five. Turns out they knew what they were doing. The ball just explodes off of his bat, and I’ve been really impressed with his ability to drive the ball the opposite way.
“When you have those kind of offensive chops, you don’t need to be Yadier Molina with the glove, though everyone tells me he’s a much better receiver than people expected him to be out of Indiana. I just watch that swing and think that guy has a chance to be a player anywhere, but catcher? Forget about it.”
His top five: 1. Schwarber 2. McGuire 3. Alfaro 4. Murphy 5. Pentecost
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Chris' notes about some of Schwarber's defensive stats kind of highlight the dilemma: his offensive is already or near major league ready but the catching defense--as we all expected--was not going to be anywhere in the ballpark compared to the offense during his first full season as a pro.
Think it's a bit more complicated than being anti-awful on defense. So much to learn and master with catcher defense. Not just one or two things but can't really be horrific at any aspect of the position to catch at major league level. If the guy is horrifically porous blocking pitches in dirt, you just can't have that in majors, for example. So much other stuff to learn.
But, dominating AA pitching first year as a pro---tough for the organization to be patient with the guy as he learns the defensive position, when you can hit like he does. Guessing that if Schwarber was an average or better LFer today, he'd be in big leagues before end of June and starting in LF. Just have to get that bat in lineup. Will he be ready to catch in big leagues to open 2016? Seems awfully optimistic. If he can catch, I suppose you just have to wait, given long-term value.
Kind of amazing that he can hit like this at AA level first year as a pro while undergoing a massive defensive learning process. You'd think it would affect his offense.
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You can be pretty weak defensively in LF without damaging the team too much. If you can catch the balls you can readily get to, and have a CFer that can limit your need for range, the damage will be limited. Throwing arm for a catcher should not be a problem in LF. I frankly find it difficult to accept (without solid evidence) that the Cubs have ruled out LF for Schwarber.
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In this Schwarber-catching chat, Chris mentioned Willson Contreras...he's becoming VERY interesting this season (can he keep it up?) and just turned 23 this month.
Always athletic and aggressive behind the plate with a good arm (throwing out 44% this season), he's morphed into a plus hitter, at least so far this season.
Contreras' line to date: 156 ABs - 14 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR (20 XBHs in 156 ABs is excellent and at least somewhat predictive of future power); .314 BA, .379 OBP, .506 SLG, .886 OPS.
Many GREAT things about a top farm system, not the least is that success doesn't rise and fall on any one player (even on a #4 overall pick as Schwarber).
I'll certainly hope Schwarber makes it at C for us, but the bat appears good enough to significant derive value in some manner...maybe even a trade for value to an AL team at some point.
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I don't think the Theocracy is gonna trade an elite left-handed bat like Schwarber, especially in this age, where left-handed hitting has all but disappeared.
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NL West scout: Kyle Schwarber, C, Chicago Cubs
Why: “He’s easily the best offensive backstop prospect right now, and he may be the best offensive catching prospect I’ve seen since Mike Zunino. The power tool is plus-plus, the hit tool is plus and he’s gonna get on base.
This is a prime example of how unpredictable players and scouting are. Zunino was very highly thought of but he's a .200/.261/.384 hitter, k'ing 35% of his AB's in the majors in over 800 PA's.
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Another example would be Baez, who struggled even more than Zunino.
But that has nothing to do with the discussion. If you are saying that Schwarber is likely to fail because most prospects fail, that would have merit. But if most scouts believe that Schwarber will succeed as a catcher or left fielder and only a small few say that he will not succeed as a catcher or left fielder, what logic is there in believing the few negative scouts, rather than the many positive scouts.
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I haven't said Schwarber will fail. My comment re: Zunino was separate from the Schwarber discussion.
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1) Why are you citing Law then?
2) The piece was from last fall. Schwarber wasn't even ranked that high by Law coming into the year; it's been his offense in AA that has shot him up charts. Further, the writer never said anything about Schwarber stinking. In fact, he praised his offense. What he said was he didn't believe Schwarber could be a ML catcher (also Law's opinion), that the Cubs quietly have/had given up on Schwarber as a viable LF option, and that he was a reach at #4. That of course was his opinion which he gave reasons for including Schwarber going to instructional league. He's right about that. Why would a college junior who has caught since HS need instructs for his defense if it wasn't an absolute mess?
The end game is this:
You say Schwarber just has to be anti-awful behind the plate. Maybe that's true depending on how one defines anti-awful. But is he anti-awful? Is he being used exclusively as a catcher because the Cubs truly believe that's his future and he needs reps? Why did he play so much LF last year if the goal was for him to catch all along? Do the Cubs know if he can play LF if catching isn't in the cards? Where is Schwarber going to play in the fall if, as speculated, he is brought to the majors?
1) I cited Law because he moved him up the charts. His offense is easier to scout than his defense. His defense requires multiple looks.
2) Did you even bother to read the guy you linked to? He was comparing him to Vogelbach from last year. Last year Vogelbach was not a top 100 prospect (he likely still isn't) and was barely a top 20 prospect for the Cubs. He was most certainly saying that Schwarber stinks and last fall he was still saying he stunk.
3) Anti-awful on defense is somewhere between Jesus Montero and an average catcher. I haven't seen Schwarber catch much, but from what the Cubs are saying he's got a chance. I'll take that over random blogger until the year end.
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another blurb about schwarber from 2 weeks ago from bp. i like bp myself. but even if you question them, those are scouts making the comments in the other blurb. if other organizations scouts say he can stick, I tend to believe them over internet speculation using faulty logic. that guy seemed to decide on the sort of article he wanted to write then looked for comments to twist. someone could do same on how trout will bust soon, but they'd have just as little credibility as that guy does.
Schwarber’s success this season is an example of why the Cubs toyed around with the idea of moving him out from behind the plate—it’s not because he can’t catch as much as it’s that his bat was going to be ready long before his glove. He still has work to do at both, but the bat is close to being ready while the defense is still a work in progress. The Cubs have no pressing needs at either of his positions and have the luxury of being patient while his glove works its way to major-league adequacy behind the plate.
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The Cubs have one less guy to protect on the 40 man roster this fall, with Cervenko being released.
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2) Did you even bother to read the guy you linked to? He was comparing him to Vogelbach from last year. Last year Vogelbach was not a top 100 prospect (he likely still isn't) and was barely a top 20 prospect for the Cubs. He was most certainly saying that Schwarber stinks and last fall he was still saying he stunk.
I read the piece several times, thank you. He never mentioned Vogelbach in the article I posted. You had to go look at an earlier one to try and make a point. The comparison to Vogelbach is rather obvious: Questionable athlete with stocky/heavy build who can hit and has power but lacks---in his opinion---a true position. If you want to take that and claim he's saying Schwarber stinks you're entitled to. I can't imagine anyone would agree with it though.
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someone could do same on how trout will bust soon, but they'd have just as little credibility as that guy does.
How did you get from Schwarber's position issues, a long-standing topic among just about everyone in the business, to a hypothetical about Mike Trout becoming a bust?
if other organizations scouts say he can stick, I tend to believe them over internet speculation using faulty logic.
I'm glad there are scouts who seem to have some faith in Schwarber as a catcher. That said, a quote from your own previous post seems to contradict that.
AL Central scout: Schwarber
“When you have those kind of offensive chops, you don’t need to be Yadier Molina with the glove, though everyone tells me he’s a much better receiver than people expected him to be out of Indiana. I just watch that swing and think that guy has a chance to be a player anywhere, but catcher? Forget about it.”
Unless I'm not understanding it, the scout doesn't see to think he can catch.
Edit:
I actually don't get the comment at all. He's saying Schwarber's bat is great and that it's good enough for the catcher position, but he's not really opining on whether Schwarber is good enough to play the position defensively.
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I'll take that over random blogger until the year end.
Incidentally, nobody forced you to agree with "random blogger" and nobody was trying to. I linked to it because I think he might be on to something, regardless of what he thought of Schwarber around draft time.
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He said in the article you linked that his post draft option still stood and hyper linked to it in the article. It didn't take research to figure it out, he put right in the article.
The Cubs are acting like Schwarber is going to catch. He has caught 8 more games than the other really good catcher at AA. Contreras has played the majority of his games not at catcher. So the Cubs are sticking Schwarber back there for what reason? The article has zero scouting in it. I'm not sure why you put random blogger in quotes, is he some sort of ex baseball scout or any industry experience? I've never read the guy until you linked it.
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He said in the article you linked that his post draft option still stood and hyper linked to it in the article.
And he said he thought the Cubs took Schwarber too high and that he wasn't a catcher, pretty much the prevailing wisdom after the pick. He even linked to Sharma saying he had heard something similar about the position.
The Cubs are acting like Schwarber is going to catch. He has caught 8 more games than the other really good catcher at AA. Contreras has played the majority of his games not at catcher.
They may think/hope he's going to catch. Where else would they play him? He's not getting 1st base with the Cubs so that leaves LF which is pretty much the entire point of my original comments. They played him in left more than at catcher last year. Suddenly, no more LF at all. I can only think of two reasons for this: they've determined he can't play left, or he's improved enough behind the plate to stick there and play it permanently. I just have seen or heard little evidence to support the latter.
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confused me at first too, but the scout is using slang there. he has a chance to be a (good) player anywhere, bat (at) catcher? think the forget about it is slang for he'd be great.
and all guy does is twist folks words around in his article to suit his desired outcome of article. anyone could do that about trout or any other player.
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AL Central scout: Schwarber
“When you have those kind of offensive chops, you don’t need to be Yadier Molina with the glove, though everyone tells me he’s a much better receiver than people expected him to be out of Indiana. I just watch that swing and think that guy has a chance to be a player anywhere, but catcher? Forget about it.”
Unless I'm not understanding it, the scout doesn't see to think he can catch.
Edit: I actually don't get the comment at all. He's saying Schwarber's bat is great and that it's good enough for the catcher position, but he's not really opining on whether Schwarber is good enough to play the position defensively.
Chris - I believe you do misunderstand the "forget about it" comment. He's saying that Schwarber's bat is so good that he'd be a valuable asset anywhere he could play, but if he's a catcher with that bat, he'd be really, really valuable.
Bearing in mind the fact that the scout rated Schwarber the #1 catching prospect, I think it's safe to say that Ray is correct that the phrase is used in the slang, highly affirmative sense. Think Goodfellas ... or maybe it was Donnie Brasco.
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Chris - I believe you do misunderstand the "forget about it" comment. He's saying that Schwarber's bat is so good that he'd be a valuable asset anywhere he could play, but if he's a catcher with that bat, he'd be really, really valuable.
Bearing in mind the fact that the scout rated Schwarber the #1 catching prospect, I think it's safe to say that Ray is correct that the phrase is used in the slang, highly affirmative sense. Think Goodfellas.
but if he's a catcher with that bat, he'd be really, really valuable.
That's what I figured after reading it again, but it still doesn't tell us what he thinks of Schwarber as a catcher, just that his bat would be great at the position. I assume he thinks he's good enough to stick, but bear in mind that Law now ranks Schwarber 15th in all of the minors and he does not think Schwarber can stick. This is very important and the reason I broached the subject yesterday. If Schwarber can't stick, then he has to play left, and IF he can't do that then he is out of positions.
I think we need to pray he improves dramatically behind the plate.
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When you have those kind of offensive chops, you don’t need to be Yadier Molina with the glove, though everyone tells me he’s a much better receiver than people expected him to be out of Indiana.
he's says that right before quote you keep referencing. I take that to mean while he's not outstanding, he isn't david ortiz behind the plate either. I take it as a positive rather than neutral comment.
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I think I answered my own question. I believe its on the MiLB site. Victor Caratini has 0 PB and is 9/38 in CS.
When I last looked at it (and I think that was 2-3 weeks ago), I believe Vogelbach not only lead the league in PB, but that he individually had more than any other team at that time.
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I'm sure they want him to get experience at catcher. But they gave him time in left last year and this year nadda. It's been catcher or DH. That strikes me as telling. They either really believe he's a catcher, which isn't really being borne out, or they are sure he can't play the outfield.
What it tells me is simply that they want him focusing on catching and on hitting, and that adding OF in the mix is something which might slow his development of the two more important skills. Learning to play LF can come later if it is needed.
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The guy you linked didn't even think he would be a top 100 prospect.
Here's what he said, "Schwarber signed with the Chicago Cubs considerably under slot value, with just a $3.125 million bonus (compared to the slot value of $4.621). While the pick was not lauded, criticism was minimal (barring my reaction, which remains largely true)."
So what did he say post draft, "he Chicago Cubs likely had one of the worst drafts of day one. Before the Cubs caught Schwarber fever, he was projected to go in the 8-24 range, with the lower half of that range probably being more accurate. I compared Schwarber to Dan Vogelbach, also of the Chicago Cubs, in my write-up. He might be slightly better than Vogelbach because it is likely he can hit closer to average, which Vogelbach is currently struggling with. Ignore the talk that he will play catcher. Ignore the talk that he will play left fielder. He’s a first baseman or designated hitter only. He is a first baseman that is 21. Anthony Rizzo, one of the supposed cornerstones of the franchise, is only 24. Where does Kyle Schwarber play exactly? Do they platoon first base with Schwarber and Rizzo? You’re drafting a guy to platoon at first base with the fourth overall pick? I still feel like this is a big prank on me. I could make some peace with it if it were like the AJ Reed situation in Houston, but this was the fourth overall pick, not forty-second. The Cubs literally wasted the fourth overall pick in the draft unless they somehow trade him down the road for another prospect and that’s only possible if Schwarber continues to put up numbers like he did in college. I’ll revisit this in a year, not to see if Schwarber will prove me wrong, but just if he will put up better numbers than Daniel Vogelbach."
The guy was wrong and is digging his heels in. Although he might be a little low on Vogelbach too...
I agree completely. It appears that the writer who is reluctant to share his name doesn't like being wrong or admittig it and is more than a bit over eager to look for any justification to confirm his original opinion... which was a bit outside the mainstream at the time and seems even more outside the mainstream now.
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Would not surprise me in the least if Schwarber would be terrible in LF. Think it's quite possible that Cubs already know that and are loathe to do that. Pure guesswork for any outsider, lets' face it. Maybe Cubs truly think he'll be adequate in LF but, if I had to guess, would guess he'd probably suck out there. If Schwarber can't catch, seems very likely that his natural position would be 1B--not an option with Cubs for obvious reasons.
In the early 1960's the Giants made it to the WS with two first basemen who split time between first, where each was competent defensively, and LF, where neither was. And that team made it to the WS, losing in 7 games.
I am not dismissing Schwarber as either a catcher or LFer, but simply pointing out that even if his only remotely competent position is 1B, it does not necessarily mean he has no future in the majors with the Cubs.
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I'm aware of what he wrote. The guy's opinion on Schwarber's worth as a draft pick might be something to debate but it's not really relevant here.
It is relevant to show bias, and bias is always relevant in evaluating someone's opinion.
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Also, as to Schwarber's defensive issues, teams have stolen 40 bases on him in 28 games played, and a couple of those games were late sub-ins.
Sounds like a perfect catcher for Lester.
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Kind of amazing that he can hit like this at AA level first year as a pro while undergoing a massive defensive learning process. You'd think it would affect his offense.
It may well have. The fact he is doing very well does not mean that he would not be doing better if he were simply playing LF or DHing.
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He's not getting 1st base with the Cubs so that leaves LF which is pretty much the entire point of my original comments. They played him in left more than at catcher last year. Suddenly, no more LF at all. I can only think of two reasons for this: they've determined he can't play left, or he's improved enough behind the plate to stick there and play it permanently. I just have seen or heard little evidence to support the latter.
Or they are trying to get him ready to catch in the majors as quickly as possible because they have relatively little concern about his ability to hit in the majors.
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What it tells me is simply that they want him focusing on catching and on hitting, and that adding OF in the mix is something which might slow his development of the two more important skills. Learning to play LF can come later if it is needed.
Perhaps, but then I have to question why he played left more after being drafted, and why some close to the Cubs said the eventual plan wasn't catcher.
Guess I should mentioned Schwarber's homered tonight.
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They thought he couldn't catch and he worked hard at it and improved?
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I agree completely. It appears that the writer who is reluctant to share his name doesn't like being wrong or admittig it and is more than a bit over eager to look for any justification to confirm his original opinion... which was a bit outside the mainstream at the time and seems even more outside the mainstream now.
Except his opinion was anything but out of the mainstream. He felt Schwarber was a reach and wouldn't stick at catcher. Those were in the vast majority of opinions.
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not sure why this is so difficult...he has improved a ton. worked on drills ton last year to improve. showed a ton of improvement in arizona. even now he is still dh'ing a lot. organizational philosophy it seems to rotate a lot.
says to me, last year they were unsure of position, but he showed ton of improvement so they feel pretty good about him being a catcher. if he couldn't be a catcher he would be in left field seeing if he can improve. the fact that he hasn't played ONE game there this year says worlds to me about what the brass think his future position is. not too mention the industry all saying he has imrproved a ton and coudl stick there now. Law is always negative when it comes to things about this and he doesn't change an opinion until it is clear he has no choice but to change an opinion. and, often times, not even then.
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Perhaps, but then I have to question why he played left more after being drafted...
Because initially they weren't at all confident he would make it as a catcher, but definitely wanted to take a close look at his bat.
Perhaps, but then I have to question why... and why some close to the Cubs said the eventual plan wasn't catcher.
Because those "some" who had that opinion and supposedly shared it were not the actual folks to make the decision, or because opinions changed as result of the progress the Cubs saw him make in the off season when he was working on his catching with Cub coaches in Arizona.
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Except his opinion was anything but out of the mainstream. He felt Schwarber was a reach and wouldn't stick at catcher. Those were in the vast majority of opinions.
It is amusing that YOU say his opinion at the time of the draft "was anything but out of the mainstream," when the content at the link says the exact opposite: "While the pick was not lauded, criticism was minimal (barring my reaction...)."
So, even if his opinion of the pick was entirely mainstream, it would certainly appear the writer of this piece (whoever Mr. anonymous is) did not feel that way.
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Whether or not he thinks criticism was minimal, the overwhelming reaction was close to shock that the Cubs took Schwarber and also that he'd have trouble staying behind the plate.
I'm going to hold suspicion on all this dramatic improvement by Schwarber. Hope it's true, but I'm beyond skeptical.
Incidentally, Schwarber has homered again.
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but if he's a catcher with that bat, he'd be really, really valuable.
That's what I figured after reading it again, but it still doesn't tell us what he thinks of Schwarber as a catcher, just that his bat would be great at the position. I assume he thinks he's good enough to stick, but bear in mind that Law now ranks Schwarber 15th in all of the minors and he does not think Schwarber can stick. This is very important and the reason I broached the subject yesterday. If Schwarber can't stick, then he has to play left, and IF he can't do that then he is out of positions.
I think we need to pray he improves dramatically behind the plate.
Oh, good grief. If he doesn't think he'll be a catcher, why on earth would he rate him as the #1 catching prospect? You don't think that would factor into his ratings?
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Oh, good grief. If he doesn't think he'll be a catcher, why on earth would he rate him as the #1 catching prospect?
You don't think that would factor into his ratings?
Because he's a catcher at the moment? Law ranks him as the #1 catching prospect too and, well, you know....
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I think it's safe to say that this debate about Schwarber is pretty futile at this point. I believe that Schwarber is more likely to become an All-Star major league catcher than Chris is to budge an inch on this subject until Schwarber is the everyday catcher for the Cubs (if then).
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What am I not budging on? The notion that it's still questionable what position Schwarber will be able to play in the bigs and with the Cubs? Seems that is yet to be determined. Nobody questions his bat.
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I'm going to hold suspicion on all this dramatic improvement by Schwarber. Hope it's true, but I'm beyond skeptical.
This seems to me entirely reasonable.
At the same time, thinking that the Cubs have concluded that Schwarber can't play LF because he hasn't played it this year seems to me beyond ridiculous.
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This seems to me entirely reasonable.
At the same time, thinking that the Cubs have concluded that Schwarber can't play LF because he hasn't played it this year seems to me beyond ridiculous.
And it was that second opinion which Chris first expressed which initiated the latest exchange.... as everyone other than Chris likely remembers.
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At the same time, thinking that the Cubs have concluded that Schwarber can't play LF because he hasn't played it this year seems to me beyond ridiculous.
I didn't say it was a fact, but that it's something I think possible. I don't think the notion that Schwarber may be awful in left is ridiculous. Baseball history has seen a plethora of big, lumbering guys who struggled in the OF. Adam Dunn survived years in the OF despite being really bad and even he, a former QB, was likely a better athlete than Schwarber.
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And it was that second opinion which Chris first expressed which initiated the latest exchange.... as everyone other than Chris likely remembers.
Except I didn't express that opinion. I asked it in the form of a question. So one of us remembers what I said accurately.
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This seems to me entirely reasonable.
At the same time, thinking that the Cubs have concluded that Schwarber can't play LF because he hasn't played it this year seems to me beyond ridiculous.
That pretty well sums it up. The jury is still out on whether or not Schwarber can be a big league catcher, but concluding that he can not play left field merely because the Cubs are currently having him concentrate on the much more valuable position is absolutely unfounded.
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Certainly it's possible. I think it's your reasoning that most think is flawed. The most likely explanation for him not playing LF this season goes hand-in-hand with your other position - that Schwarber right now as a defensive catcher is somewhere between a butcher and well below average. If he's that bad, they can't afford to waste defensive reps anywhere other than behind the plate.
Occam's Razor, man.
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That's not much more heartening.
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Except I didn't express that opinion. I asked it in the form of a question. So one of us remembers what I said accurately.
You are correct that at east one of us does accurately remember your position. It simply does not appear that would happen to be you.
Just to help you out, the following posts are presented in the order in which they were posted, covering a less than twelve hour period, and without any editing or highlighting anything in the posts:
Got a bad feeling Schwarber's a DH too.
If he can't catch, you're calling it without even letting him try the outfield every day? May I ask why?
A few accounts say he's abysmal in the outfield. Probably explains why he hasn't played one inning out there this season.
I'm sure they want him to get experience at catcher. But they gave him time in left last year and this year nadda. It's been catcher or DH. That strikes me as telling. They either really believe he's a catcher, which isn't really being borne out, or they are sure he can't play the outfield.
That goes under the 'they believe he can catch' option I mentioned. Perhaps that's the case. I sure hope it's the case, but I'm not convinced. Why play him in left last year and not at all this year? Especially considering LF is far more of an issue with the Cubs than catcher.
There was significant skepticism that he could remain behind the plate when he was drafted. Has he improved so much that LF is no longer being considered? I find that very hard to believe.
Taken in toto, which is required to appreciate what you were expressing, it was not merely a reasoned skepticism that a prospect hitting well in AA will take the majors by storm, but was much, much closer to expressing a belief "that the Cubs have concluded that Schwarber can't play LF because he hasn't played it this year."
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It's awfully frustrating to be in agreement with Jes.
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So I said I had a bad feeling, mentioned that reports of Schwarber's LF defense last year were negative, and note there was skepticism that he could remain a catcher. This, of course, is your proof that I made a proclamation rather than state a hypothetical concern.
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Schwarber: 2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI, BB, K, 2 SBA
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_30_mobaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Zagunis: 1-4, 2B, RBI, 2 BB, 2 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_30_myrafa_potafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Wonder if Carlos Rodriguez is biding his time in the VSL until short-season starts.
6-3-1-1-0-7
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_30_vcurok_vtirok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Christopher Pieters has apparently been switched to a position player.
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_30_dcurok_metrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
South Bend rained out.
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Didn't see the announcement, but Tayler Scott was the winning pitcher for Tennessee, so he's evidently been promoted from Myrtle Beach.
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Schwarber's all like, screw this defense discussion, I'ma hit some taters!
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Alcantara: 2-5, HR, 2 RBI, K
Baez: 2-4, 2B, RBI, BB, K
Edwards: 1-1-2-2-3-0
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_30_iowaaa_elpaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Schwarber's first homer:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=138393983&sid=milb
And his second:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=138383683&sid=milb
A Contreras homer from Tuesday:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=132044583&sid=milb
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Rivero has been pitching really well of late too.
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Bout time.
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The Cubs have 7 games in June where they'll need a DH. Any chance they would consider bringing up Schwarber?
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I wasn't expecting much from Contreras, and honestly expected him to repeat at A+. But he's been pretty consistent. Not like his numbers are based on a couple of bursts. His numbers and splits seem pretty balanced. He played 3B last night, his 4th or 5th time there. No idea how good his catching defense is. But assuming his future is backup C, being able to play a 2nd or 3rd position would help him.
Edwards with a bad AAA debut, walking three in his bad inning.
Baez and Alcantara now both have comparable OPS, Alcantara .843 and Baez at .853.
Rivero's been solid lately. Still not sure he's quite rediscovered himself at his best, though. Last year, he'd often have these outbursts of K's. This year, he hasn't really had those 2- and 3-K/inning bursts. Still obviously wild. I'm always kind of concerned that the wild ones, every step up the wildness problems are exposed increasingly versus more disciplined hitters.
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Quick Schwarber thoughts:
1. Seems obvious his catching, while he's made some progress, still seems questionable. Passed balls, SB/CS, those don't look favorable thus far. We'll see. But unlikely that he'll become an above-average guy defensively. We all get that, I think, and get that if you hit enough, average or close-to-average is fine.
2. I think Chris's original question is well considered. **IF** he doesn't make it as catcher, will LF be a good option? It's a question, and we don't know the answer. But, the chances that he'll not really end up being very acceptable at catcher is nontrivial, so the question on LF is worth asking.
I think it's fair to say that just as Schwarber will not be a gifted defensive catcher, likewise he won't be a gifted defensive LF. But, how bad on the average-below average-mediocre/awful spectrum will he fall? Beats me. we've gotten some voices on his catching; very few on his LFing. The anonymous comment in the blog that he looked "horrible" in left, that may be true.
Still, the number of plays a LFer makes are few. The impact of a poor LFer obviously doesn't cost what a poor catcher costs. We'll wait and see.
That said, I agree with most that the non-usage in left isn't persuasive. The blog seemed to reason that they originally expected him in left (I agree with that), but that his exclusive usage at catcher reflects a disappointing and unexpected defensive failure in left. I don't think that's compelling. He's catching because he *might* be able to catch.
But, *IF* he washes out at catcher, I think we should *NOT* assume he'll be fine in left. He might be a problem. It's possible that he really should be a DH or a 1B. We don't know.
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Going into this season, did anybody here think that, two months into this season, Schwarber's catching unquestionably would be average or close-to-average?
The problem--a good one--is that his catching tutorial seemingly has not hindered his offense one iota and he is now showing that, offensively, he probably should be in big leagues way, way sooner that his catching tutorial development in minors. In other words, his offense and defense are way out of whack. Defensively, guessing mid-2016 probably would be realistic insofar as possibly attaining in the neighborhood of acceptable/close to average, if he's capable of that. Offensively, probably talking a month or so from right now in terms of helping the big club. Basically, he's at least a year out of whack.
So, what do you do? Just be patient and develop him as a catcher to the bitter end OR get him up to big leagues in whatever role is open and have him contribute to the major league offense?
Guessing that brass will be patient and the tutorial will continue virtually entire minor league season. As we saw with Bryant last September, think Cubs are loathe to start free agency clock with September call-up for a huge impact guy--but if Cubs are still in contention late August, maybe Schwarber outcome will be different. If no call-up this September, you know he's starting 2016 in minors.
Think it's kind of amazing that the guy can rake like this while absorbing all the catching development stuff at the AA level first full year as a pro. Astounding, really.
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The Cubs have 7 games in June where they'll need a DH. Any chance they would consider bringing up Schwarber?
Aside from any other considerations, I expect their priority with Schwarber is probably to get him as much work in on his defense as a catcher as possible, and that would interfere.
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Underwood K on a nasty change:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?&sid=milb&content_id=137064083
Alcantara's home run from yesterday:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=138846683&topic_id=18601616&c_id=&sid=milb
Tseng pitching sequence ending in a strikeout:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=131766283&topic_id=18601448&c_id=&sid=milb
Black pitching sequence ending in a strikeout; Schwarber muffs what might've been strike 3 earlier:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=128793583&sid=milb
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I don't think anyone should expect that Schwarber is going to be an average defender where ever he plays. The question will be how close to average he can get first at catcher and failing there LF. His bat is so good it won't matter and the bar for defense in LF is pretty low. I'd like to have a good defensive at every position, but Schwarber/Bryant/Rizzo could easily give you 3 30+ HR guys with a high OBP.
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Craig, I'd say Willson Contreras is really interesting because he's such a plus athlete (converted from 3B) and not just because the jury is still out on Schwarber at C.
Below are some quotes from Buddy Bailey (Tennessee Mgr) from a fantasy baseball blog by Adam Greene,
“He (Contreras) needs to get a little better calling the game but that’s part of the process,” Smokies manager Buddy Bailey said. “Sometimes he wants to trick people instead of doing the best thing. He’s a solid defensive catcher. He blocks really well. He throws well. The biggest thing is learning his own pitchers and what they can do in situations. Sometimes he asks them to do things they can’t do and maybe shouldn’t be trying to do at this stage in their career.”
The biggest issue for Contreras, with the Cubs at least, is he’s in a crowded position with the heir-apparent batting in front of him in the Double-A line-up. The Cubs traded for catcher Miguel Montero this offseason to start for the big league club and he’s little more than a placeholder for Schwarber, who’ll likely make his major league debut in the next two years."
Hopefully, Schwarber will be our primary catcher for 10+ years, but it's really nice to have some inventory of athletic guys - like Contreras - who just might make it as an MLB C, too. Contreras seems to have some real upside, so he could yield good value in a trade, too.
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I'm not a scout, and I've never seen Kyle Schwarber play. But he was a second-team All-State high school linebacker in Ohio, so he won't be a statue in left field. His hitting credentials strongly suggest he doesn't have any vision problems. His coaches could tell him how deep and how close to the line to play for each hitter, if neccesary. The only possible problem areas would seem to be his routes to the ball and actually catching it.
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I know folks mention Adam Dunn as an OFer.
You don't want a guy like that in the outfield. In 2009, Nats played Dunn in both corner OF spots for about 80 games. Saw a lot of those games. Brutal. Let me repeat. Brutal.
Even close-to-vest Cubs brass now rule out Vogelbach as a LFer--and if Schwarber is anything like that as an OFer, that's a real problem. You don't want that. Not saying he will be like Vogelbach, but you don't want that.
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I take the positive assumption: the Cubs are so convinced that Schwarber could play the outfield, they want him to concentrate on catching...worry about LF later.
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I take the positive assumption: the Cubs are so convinced that Schwarber could play the outfield, they want him to concentrate on catching...worry about LF later.
I'm with Curt on this one. Speculation - they saw him out there last year and thought "He can't be any worse than Zonk or Raffy out there."
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If his hitting is strong enough an occasional error will be forgiven.
If Im the Cubs I tell him to just keep hitting.
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It also comes down to this in regards to him catching.
Who would you rather have behind the plate?
Mike Piazza or Yadier Molina?
Ill take Piazza.
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I'd take the Molina of the previous few years, but the hypothetical isn't relevant unless you think Schwarber is on the same level offensively and defensively as Piazza.
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Schwarber: 2-4, E
McKinney: 2-3, Assist
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_31_mobaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Myrtle Beach:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_31_myrafa_potafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
South Bend gets part of a DH suspended, the other cancelled.
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Forgot about the football thing with Schwarber. Gotta say, unless he just can't comprehend what a route is and how to track a fly ball, I think he could prolly play left with a lil repetition.
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.... or the Cubs could lobby & vote to add the DH to the National League and there's a spot for Vogelbach or Schwarber.
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Adam Dunn was a U of Texas recruit---at Quarterback.
So, football does not mean decent LFer.
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Iowa game is on CSN Chicago right now. Szczur just hammered a double. Announcers mentioned that Szczur stole 3rd twice in one game and has three SB in this series. Baez doubles him in with hard line shot down the left field line (on a change up).
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Sahadev Sharma @sahadevsharma 19h19 hours ago
This unfair to to the kid, but... through 44 AA games:
Bryant: .323/416/.610 12 HR 11 2B
Schwarber: .322/.470/.636 12 HR 7 2B
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That's saying something.
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My scouting report from the game. Baez needs to shave.
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After struggling all year Yasiel Balaguert has gone on a tear ... batting close to 0.500 the last 10 days with 2 HR. ...challenging Jeffrey Baez for the RF job.
Recently, the Cubs chose to promote Andrew Ely from extended spring training and release Tim Saunders. So far so good. Ely is off to a good start in low-A.
While he is not catching much recently, Taylor Davis continues to hit well at Iowa.
Ryan Williams has not given up a HR this year in 53.2 IP.
It was easy to discount Chesny Young's fast start in low-A. ... not so easy to discount the 22-yr olds high-A numbers. No power but more walks than strikeouts and an OPS north of 0.400. Interestingly, he has served as a super utilityman at Myrtle Beach with appearances at SS, 2B, 3B, LF, and RF.
Seven different players have play 1B for South Bend this year with none of them having 1B as a primary position.
Wilson Contreras has thrown out 44% of basestealers this year. ... about twice as high as every other Cub catcher not in their 30s.
Finally, Kelvin Encarnacion was recently called up to South Bend, his first appearance since he suffered horrific burns in a car accident a few years ago. Probably a full-season cup-of-coffee but nice to see. He made the NWL's prospect list a few years back.
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Szczur with two hits, and Baez with two hits, second on was a fly ball to RF. I'm no scout, but in this game Baez sure seems more controlled at the plate to me.
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He's much more quiet at the plate. 3/4 today and for those worried 2/3 of a lefty.
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Was that really a Jay Jackson sighting just then?
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Yes.
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And now a Jody Davis sighting! Solid night!
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Baez: 3-5, 2B, 2 RBI, CS
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_31_iowaaa_elpaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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My scouting report from the game. Baez needs to shave.
Ya know, Jesus had a beard, too.
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He also walked everywhere. Baez seldom walks.
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He also walked everywhere. Baez seldom walks.
That's because Baez has a sweet ride.
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Ya know, Jesus had a beard, too.
A beard would be an improvement. It looked like something a 12 year old would grow and be proud of.
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But Moses could stretch the furthest. He tied his ass to a tree and walked a mile down the road.
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He was also the first to use laxatives. It's recorded in Exodus that he took the two tablets and went out into the wilderness.
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There was also the one about smiting his rod and passing water, but I can't tell it on Sunday.
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Finally, Kelvin Encarnacion was recently called up to South Bend, his first appearance since he suffered horrific burns in a car accident a few years ago. Probably a full-season cup-of-coffee but nice to see. He made the NWL's prospect list a few years back.
Actually, the car accident was in December 2013, so he only missed the 2014 season, then participated in the Cubs' winter camp and had been playing in EXST before his promotion.
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Due to the scar tissue he had to give up switch hitting as well. Pretty amazing he made it back at all.
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I think that Mejia and de la Rosa were also in the accident, but suffered much less severe injuries.
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Appropos of Schwarber as a LFer---listening to the Olney podcast---Red Sox think Hanley Ramirez--a converted SS--has been killing them defensively in LF. Check out his UZR so far in LF---consistent with that scouting report.
Not automatic that a guy will be decent out there.
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I don't think that any has said that it is automatic that a guy will be decent in left field.
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I don't think that any has said that it is automatic that a guy will be decent in left field.
Bingo.
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Dylan Cease sitting 96-97 per Arguello
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Yowza
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This Rob Neyer piece seems timely although he's a bit confused in thinking Schwarber's played left this year.
http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/chicago-cubs-left-field-hole-kyle-schwarber-minor-league-catcher-could-be-answer-060115?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed
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I didn't see the Iowa game that was televised yesterday, but this clip of Baez' double would suggest the leg kick is completely gone. Did no-one notice this?
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=140497283&sid=milb
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Taylor Davis is using it...
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Good call, Chris!
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Corey Black @CblackCHC 50m50 minutes ago
Probably the last time I'll be doing this for awhile. New beginnings. Excited for this! Photo credit:… https://instagram.com/p/3Zj6D8kRzW/
It is a picture of him hitting, is he moving to the bullpen
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I don't think that any has said that it is automatic that a guy will be decent in left field.
Okay, check automatic, and substitute "can be problematic" even for a career SS to be close to adequate in LF.
The point is that, like Renteria, Schwarber might be really bad in LF---not just an easy Fallback 101 option. Very possible it won't work---for those who think, no big deal since Adam Dunn played out there, or Schwarber was a linebacker so must be able to play LF. Not so. He might suck in LF and it just won't work.
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It would all depend on his instincts and reading the ball. If those are ok, he'll be fine. Gordon is elite, but he isn't an elite athlete.
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Good call, Chris!
Thanks. Shocked nobody mentioned it. His normal leg kick is so dramatic that I noticed its absence immediately. But I've only seen the highlight so I wonder if others saw this in his other at-bats.
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I didn't see the Iowa game that was televised yesterday, but this clip of Baez' double would suggest the leg kick is completely gone. Did no-one notice this?
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=140497283&sid=milb
He did not lift his leg on that hit, but he did in at least one other at bat (though I don't think it was as pronounced as in the past). And as someone (Cubluejay?) said, he seemed much quieter at the plate.
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Thanks. Shocked nobody mentioned it. His normal leg kick is so dramatic that I noticed its absence immediately. But I've only seen the highlight so I wonder if others saw this in his other at-bats.
Good observation.
1. He had plenty of leg-kick in the two HR's from the previous weekend that had videos. So, if he's gotten rid of it, it's only within the last week.
2. This count was 2-1. So, whatever his situational decisions about using the leg kick versus turning it off, it's apparently not as simple as just turning it off only with 2 strikes.
Who knows. Maybe he turns it off situationally. Due to lefty? Due to Szczur on 2nd? Due to having been in an 0-15 slump earlier in the week? Will be interesting to track.
People love the HR's, but don't seem to love the leg kick. But has he ever hit a HR without the leg kick? He may be in something of a conundrum.
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But has he ever hit a HR without the leg kick? He may be in something of a conundrum.
I thought about that. His muscle memory may make it hard for him to lose the leg kick permanently anyway, but I also wonder if he will be less comfortable without it. You'd have to think it would simple up his swing so much just to be able to turn on his foot rather than have to time the ball with his foot coming down.
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With his bat speed and weight transfer, he doesn't need the kick to hit a homer. Watch that clip towards the end and you see how his back foot lifts, and his entire lower half almost buckles under the violence of his weight transfer. Would love to see him plant that front leg more, with or without leg kick, to avoid that forward crawl in his swing, a la Harper.
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Corey Black @CblackCHC 50m50 minutes ago
Probably the last time I'll be doing this for awhile. New beginnings. Excited for this! Photo credit:… https://instagram.com/p/3Zj6D8kRzW/
It is a picture of him hitting, is he moving to the bullpen
My first assumption is "traded to the AL"...the whole post reeks of trade...
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yep, good point
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I had read somewhere on the internet that Black would soon be moving to the bullpen. If it were a trade, it should have been announced by now.
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So I said I had a bad feeling, mentioned that reports of Schwarber's LF defense last year were negative, and note there was skepticism that he could remain a catcher. This, of course, is your proof that I made a proclamation rather than state a hypothetical concern.
Well, we have agreement that your actual posts are the proof of what you did. The difference is that I cut and pasted your posts in chronological order, and all of them complete to allow a very quick look at what you wrote. You, on the other hand, want to characterize things you wrote and to mention that you just "asked a question," without acknowledging that you then also answered that question.
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Thought I read that the Yankees were trying to get Black back...or do I have the wrong guy?
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Didn't answer the question. No proof. Never happened. You're delusional. End of story.
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I'm delusional? Why? If it wasn't Black big deal.
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Black is moving to the bullpen. Smokies Wednesday starter (Black's turn) is TBD.
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Didn't answer the question. No proof. Never happened. You're delusional. End of story.
~sigh~ Just when I was going to delete my last post as being a bit too catty, even if fully accurate....
This was asking the question:
I do apologize for mischarecterizing the order in which it happend -- first you answered the question, and then you answered it.
No delusion on this end.That goes under the 'they believe he can catch' option I mentioned. Perhaps that's the case. I sure hope it's the case, but I'm not convinced. Why play him in left last year and not at all this year? Especially considering LF is far more of an issue with the Cubs than catcher.
There was significant skepticism that he could remain behind the plate when he was drafted. Has he improved so much that LF is no longer being considered? I find that very hard to believe.
This would also qualify:
Well, the question is have they given up on Schwarber in left field and people just don't realize it. This piece was written last fall. http://beisbols.org/2014/10/16/chicago-cubs-already-done-schwarber/
And before either of those posts you had already answered your question:
A few accounts say he's abysmal in the outfield. Probably explains why he hasn't played one inning out there this season.
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I'm delusional? Why? If it wasn't Black big deal.
Not you. The guy who thinks using the the word 'probably' and asking questions constitute some set-in-stone conclusion.
You might have him on ignore.
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The only possible problem areas would seem to be his routes to the ball and actually catching it.
Nothing more than routes to the ball and actually catching it.....
"So, other than that, Ms. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?"
Quick Schwarber thoughts:
1. Seems obvious his catching, while he's made some progress, still seems questionable. Passed balls, SB/CS, those don't look favorable thus far. We'll see. But unlikely that he'll become an above-average guy defensively.
Though PB and CS% are easy metrics to look at, they are not necessarily the most important aspects of a catcher's performance management will consider in evaluating whether Schwarber is acceptable or unacceptable behind the plate.
The Cubs have 7 games in June where they'll need a DH. Any chance they would consider bringing up Schwarber?
I certainly hope not.
Suppose he is called up and plays DH in 7 games, hits 3 HR and goes 10 for 25 with 5 walks.
The pressure to keep him up, in some capacity, would be intense, and yet if it preveted him from having the opportunity to fully develop as a catcher, it would not be in the best long term interests of the team.
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Not you. The guy who thinks using the the word 'probably' and asking questions constitute some set-in-stone conclusion.
You might have him on ignore.
oh. Now it makes sense.
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Schwarber: 1-5, RBI, BB, 3 K
McKinney: 1-2, 2B, SF, RBI, 3 BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_01_tenaax_cngaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
South Bend #1:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_05_31_souafx_lcoafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
South Bend #2:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_01_souafx_lcoafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_01_vphrok_vcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Alcantara: 2-5, 3B, SB, 3 K, E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_01_iowaaa_elpaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
DSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_01_metrok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
MB suspended in the 10th.
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Corey Black confirmed on his twitter that he is indeed moving to the pen...
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… with the intention of calling him up to Chicago later this summer if the Cubs need a bullpen upgrade?
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… with the intention of calling him up to Chicago later this summer if the Cubs need a bullpen upgrade?
It's a four horse race, with Ramirez, Edwards, Black and Rivero all under consideration for one or more roster spots whenever they're deemed ready. I don't really expect to see Black or Rivero in Chicago before September. Rivero won't make it at all this year (because he's not Rule 5 eligible yet) unless the others falter.
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Kyle Schwarber gets pitch framing!
Mostly interesting piece from Rob Neyer about Schwarber situation.
http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/chicago-cubs-left-field-hole-kyle-schwarber-minor-league-catcher-could-be-answer-060115
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Not you. The guy who thinks using the the word 'probably' and asking questions constitute some set-in-stone conclusion.
You might have him on ignore.
Nothing in anyone's posts referenced a "set-in-stone conclusion," but you quite clearly did answer the question you asked.
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Nothing in anyone's posts referenced a "set-in-stone conclusion," but you quite clearly did answer the question you asked.
That's a contradiction, and no I did not. I felt it possible, perhaps probable. Don't quote my comments that specifically contradict your claim such as when I said "the question is...." and then pretend otherwise.
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Completed Myrtle Beach game.
Paniagua: 3-2/3 -1-0-0-0-4, 17-1/3 IP, 9 H, 5 BB, 18 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_01_myrafa_potafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Myrtle Beach Gm 2:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_02_myrafa_potafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Almora: 3-5, 2B
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_02_tenaax_cngaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_02_vcurok_vphrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
South Bend idle.
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That's a contradiction, and no I did not.
Perhaps you should consult a dictionary for the meaning of "contradiction."
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Paniagua might need a promotion to AA.
Taylor Scott might become interesting in the pen. I wonder if his velocity has picked up with the move to the pen.
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Perhaps you should consult a dictionary for the meaning of "contradiction."
If I didn't offer a conclusive statement then I didn't "answer the question". I expressed how I was leaning. Sorry if you can't discern the difference.
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And I'm sorry you can't admit that you did and move on, but you can't, so I will.
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It's noble of you to falsely claim I contended something as fact then move on.
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Paniagua might need a promotion to AA.
Taylor Scott might become interesting in the pen. I wonder if his velocity has picked up with the move to the pen.
Scott's been very good. His K-rate as a starter in two years of A-ball was very weak. Now, it's excellent in relief. And his walks haven't gone up.
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Baez has homered twice tonight, the first one an estimated 450-ft to centerfield.
Sounds as if the second was hit a mile too. But then, Baez' strength was never an issue.
Curious to see if the leg-kick was present for either of them.
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Baez: 4-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
Alcantara: 3-4, HR, RBI, BB, SB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_02_iowaaa_albaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Alcantara currently at .526 slugging %. Think he's getting back in the big league picture.
Also, Villanueva putting up some interesting numbers and probably enhancing his trade value.
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I got around to watching the televised game from a few days ago. I didn't realize it was on TV here so I only got the second inning on.
Alcantara looks better at the plate, but I'm not sure he got any change ups on the outside corner.
Baez's leg kick was present in every other AB that game. He is much more quiet at the plate pre pitch and looks like he has a clue at what he is going to do.
Medina is wild. He started off with 7 straight balls. Induced a double play and got out of the inning. Stuff looks good, but they didn't have velocity readings on the broadcast.
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Baez' second homer Tuesday:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=142676683&sid=milb
Two observations: No leg kick, and he's practically standing on top of home plate.
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Javier Baez doesn't have the perfect swing. Not yet, at least. Iowa manager Marty Pevey says the only reason for him to even have a leg kick is to generate power, but he has so much pop in his bat that he doesn't need to complicate his approach with additional motions.
On Tuesday night, Baez removed the leg kick from his game and proved his skipper right by still slugging a fastball so deep there was no doubt it was leaving the yard.
...
"He was quiet at the plate, he had quiet feet and good hitters have quiet feet," said Pevey, who said it was the best performance he's seen out of Baez this year. "His swing was short and compact and he hit a home run to center field. Then just absolutely torched one to left-center that went 460, 470 feet. It was a show to behold."
Baez loaded the bases with an infield single in the first inning and singled to right field in the third. After lining out to center in the fifth, he clubbed a two-run homer to center in the seventh and added a second dinger to left-center with one on and one out in the ninth.
"Both home runs were on fastballs," Pevey said. "The first one, I knew it had a chance. It's 417 out there [to center field] and it goes uphill and [Drew Stubbs] just ran out of room.
"[The second homer] he got rid of his leg kick because the guy was quick to the plate and he had to get his foot down in a hurry. He doesn't do it all the time. Unfortunately, that's something he needs to do more of to get that foot down to keep up to the fastball. We looked at the video right after the game was over, and it was amazing he can generate that much power without picking up the leg. He just picked his foot up and put it down."
http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150603&content_id=128267264&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb
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Chris - Thanks very much for the video and the Peavey quotes. I'm feeling more hopeful that Baez is going to make the adjustments needed, which would be very exciting.
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Baez is going to be playing third at Iowa. June 11 is when he gets the extra year.
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Baez is going to be playing third at Iowa. June 11 is when he gets the extra year.
Is this speculation (playing 3B) or did you see an announcement to that effect?
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Harry Pavlidis retweeted
Ash Marshall @AshMarshallMLB 9h9 hours ago Manhattan, NY
Iowa manager Marty Pevey says Javy Baez has taken grounders at 3B during infield this week, could play games there in coming weeks. #Cubs
Maybe a slight overstatement on my part. It fits what happens when the Cubs want to call somebody up though.
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Ryan Williams is getting promoted from South Bend to Tennessee to take Corey Black's start.
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Harry Pavlidis retweeted
Ash Marshall @AshMarshallMLB 9h9 hours ago Manhattan, NY
Iowa manager Marty Pevey says Javy Baez has taken grounders at 3B during infield this week, could play games there in coming weeks. #Cubs
Maybe a slight overstatement on my part. It fits what happens when the Cubs want to call somebody up though.
Will Javy Baez become Joe Maddon's next Ben Zobrist?
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Who is Javy Lopez?
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That's a pretty big promotion for Williams. I would have thought that Myrtle Beach would have been more appropriate.
I imagine that they didn't believe that Underwood or Torrez are ready to move up, and they feel that both are better prospects than Williams.
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Harry Pavlidis retweeted
Ash Marshall @AshMarshallMLB 9h9 hours ago Manhattan, NY
Iowa manager Marty Pevey says Javy Baez has taken grounders at 3B during infield this week, could play games there in coming weeks. #Cubs
Maybe a slight overstatement on my part. It fits what happens when the Cubs want to call somebody up though.
Wow, big news. That seems the obvious flag that a call up could come fairly soon. Seems like both Baez and Russell had a couple of weeks at 2nd before their call ups. (And Alcantara a couple weeks in center, although I may not be remembering clearly in AA's case.) Thanks much for passing that on.
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For those wondering
Baez .325/.397/.550 with a 7.4% BB, 24.3% K +5 HBP
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Who is Javy Lopez?
That is the question, isn't it?
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"[The second homer] he got rid of his leg kick because the guy was quick to the plate and he had to get his foot down in a hurry. He doesn't do it all the time. Unfortunately, that's something he needs to do more of to get that foot down to keep up to the fastball. We looked at the video right after the game was over, and it was amazing he can generate that much power without picking up the leg. He just picked his foot up and put it down." Peavy
Chris, thanks much for the video and the Peavy quote. Love them both.
1. Appears that Baez still uses the leg kick plenty, perhaps normally/routinely. But it now appears that he has the ability/willingness to turn it off situationally. I assume two-strike counts is one such situation, and I think turning it off will now help keep the K-rate under 40%. But there now appear to be other situations. Peavy mentions quick-to-plate delivery as one, and fastballs as more general. In the Sunday TV game, he turned it off against a LHP change up with a 2-1 count.
2. Evident that Peavy would like to see him turn it off even more. ("He doesn't do it all the time. Unfortunately, that's something he needs to do more of to get that foot down to keep up to the fastball.") Not sure whether the actual batting coach, at Iowa or Chicago, has the same view. But encouraging that progress has been made. Situational turning off of the leg kick, and less motion/better-balance even when he does still kick, seems like progress has been made, and more may still come.
3. Nice to see that he CAN hit HR without the kick. Everybody says he's got the power that he doesn't need it; but nice for him and us to actually see that theory actually being true in a game.
4. Peavy mentions needing to get his foot down to keep up with fastball and quick-to-plate delivery. But the Sunday double was NOT a fastball. Getting the foot down fast enough may be a challenge for hard stuff, but keeping balance and not getting it down too soon is probably challenge for slow stuff. In the Sunday video, not leg-kicking against slow lefty change up helped to keep the hands and weight back. Will be interesting to track in what situations he keeps the leg kick and in which he turns it off. My guess is that he may turn it off situationally for both hard stuff but perhaps also slow stuff. May well be a function of guess-hitting, too. Often you guess wrong, but may turn it off and on differently and pitch to pitch, depending on when he's guessing fastball, change, or slider/cutter.
Heh, he's got three more games at Albuquerque this week. Great place to pad your stats.
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That's a pretty big promotion for Williams. I would have thought that Myrtle Beach would have been more appropriate.
I imagine that they didn't believe that Underwood or Torrez are ready to move up, and they feel that both are better prospects than Williams.
Williams is age 23. No business still pitching in A ball at that age.
Williams won his first start for Tenn today, 3 ER in 5+ innings.
Corey Black with a dominant two innings work out of bullpen too. 6 up, 6 down, 0 walks, 3 Ks. 22 pitches/17 strikes. Might be moving up fast.
Schwarber with three hits.
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Yesterday's DSL box:
Peguero: 3-4, 2B, RBI, BB, SB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_02_drxrok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
17-yo SS Yeiler Peguero is off to a great start. He signed for $250K last summer.
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That's a pretty big promotion for Williams. I would have thought that Myrtle Beach would have been more appropriate.
I imagine that they didn't believe that Underwood or Torrez are ready to move up, and they feel that both are better prospects than Williams.
Williams as an older pitcher, with limited scouting buzz, it's kind of a here's-your-chance window of opportunity. If he struggles, who cares, nothing lost, wasn't a prospect anyway, just roster filling. If some of his success does carry over, then he's taken advantage of that opportunity and might merit some consideration that maybe he actually could be a prospect of some sort?
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With this talk of Baez' impending call-up I have to ask, did Mike Olt die? Defect? Fall in a hole somewhere?
That is one long absence for a guy who initially kept playing after getting hit.
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According to Iowa's manager, Baez is going to play 3B tonight.
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With this talk of Baez' impending call-up I have to ask, did Mike Olt die? Defect? Fall in a hole somewhere?
That is one long absence for a guy who initially kept playing after getting hit.
Olt's wrist was broken. He wore a cast for around six weeks. He's working his way back in EXST.
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Olt's wrist was broken. He wore a cast for around six weeks. He's working his way back in EXST.
Okay, thanks. There is almost no news on him I had forgotten that his injury turned out that bad. He almost literally is the forgotten man.
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I believe Olt has been hitting in a cage, but not playing any EXST games yet. Depending on if LaStella can come back quicker he might spend the rest of the year in Iowa.
As far as playing him, small fractures won't always show up on the first x-ray and you need a CT/MRI or repeat x-ray in about 1 week to find it.
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Tommy Birch @TommyBirch 8m8 minutes ago
Pevey: "We're going to play it day by day. Tonight's he's going to play third and he might play again tomorrow." #Cubs #MiLB #PCL
Tommy Birch @TommyBirch 11m11 minutes ago
I-#Cubs manager Marty Pevey on Javier Baez playing some 3B: "He's going to be fine." #PCL #MiLB
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Alcantara's composite Iowa numbers this year are now almost comparable to where they were last year when he got called up. He's about 10 points shy in each of OBP and slugging. I think last year was something like this one: he didn't start real hot, but then picked it up as the spring progressed. This year vs last year:
PA: 174/366 (not quite half as many thus far)
K%: 24% vs 23% (not much worse)
BB%: 9% vs 7%
HR: 8/10 (improved rate)
OBP: .345 / .353
slugging: .526 vs .537
OPS: .871 vs .890
BABIP: .333 vs .380
Basically he's pretty much back to what he was last year. That's not all great, of course. When you're counting on a young guy getting better in order to become big-league useful, just being about-the-same with the same contact problems he had before (or worse), that's not good. When a guy is not-great-but-pretty-good at Iowa, "but that's good for being only 22", being the same not-great-but-pretty-good isn't as good for now being 23.
Still, I'm pleased that he's gotten back where he was. When he got called up, we were interested/hopeful for good reasons. Some of those hopes and reasons still apply. When a guy fails badly, as he did, it's easy to get your head messed up and get your swing messed up. While trying to adjust/fix the failure, things can get worse. (As appeared the case when he went down to Iowa).
But now he's kind of back where he was, I'm glad. And hopefully some adjustments have been made that will help, and will keep him from falling into as deep a slump when he goes back up.
His splits are very even at Iowa. He's got the exact same OBP versus both LHP and RHP, and his OPS differs by less than 20 points. K rate is only modestly worse versus righties. But if he can be fine LH, that might be nice in an infield where Castro, Russell, Baez, and Bryant are all RH. And really, if a guy wants to be a Zobrist, it would be convenient if he could fill in acceptably whether it was a RH or LH bat that was dinged or needed a rest.
Hopefully he'll keep moving for a while. I'd love to see the K-rate diminish, though. But would be nice if he could re-establish himself as meaningful asset, whether on the Cubs bench or as a trade chip. His usage has been pretty diverse: CF-16, 2B-16, LF-12, SS-4, 3B-4. With Russell gone and Baez perhaps working at SS/3B for a while, I'd like to see Alcantara play a lot of 2B. If he was to put up a really strong couple of months, while looking professional at 2B defensively, he might still be one of our better trade assets in July. He'd not be years away, and some teams might much value a 2B prospect. Not going to be the main piece for a high-level player, but might be a very fair asset to exchange for a fairly good reliever, for example?
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If you want to increase his trade value sticking him at SS would be the way to go. If he can be passable at SS most teams will by that he can play 2B. I have zero clue if he can actually play SS, but their won't be anybody worth while blocking if Baez is working at 3B for 8 more days before being called up.
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I don't think the Cubs have any plans of moving Baez.
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Albert Almora is depressing.
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I don't think the Cubs have any plans of moving Baez.
I was talking about Alcantara. If he can play SS, that would increase his value a lot vs having him play 2B.
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I was talking about Alcantara. If he can play SS, that would increase his value a lot vs having him play 2B.
If the Iowa Cubs play Alcantara a lot at SS, it could only be to showcase him for a trade. He's played a lot of minor league games at SS, and he isn't as good there as Castro, Baez or Russell.
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I like AA's skillset and still think he has value.
It's also good to see Javy turning things around.
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I was talking about Alcantara. If he can play SS, that would increase his value a lot vs having him play 2B.
Think Alcantara on way out--prime trade bait--as Cubs don't need yet another high K guy on the club. Think he would be attractive to bunch of clubs.
Think maybe Villanueva might be creating some trade interest. 290-348-500 line at Iowa and good 3B defense.
Vogelbach, of course.
Cubs probably willing to trade any pitcher in system--perhaps other than Underwood and high ceiling Cease--in right deal.
Even McKinney might become expendable if somebody else is moved to LF.
Junior Lake build up some trade value with his Soler DL plate appearances.
Is there a Cole Hamels deal somewhere in and around there?
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I think I'd be playing Alcantara at short. It's pretty obvious what you're thinking at that point, but so what?
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If Maddon really wants a super-sub, the only two possibilities within the system are Baez and Alcantara. Both are long shots, with Alcantara the longest shot, but they do have the tools and versatility for the use Maddon might have for them.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1dYXOxnbqfw
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I think Maddon really likes to avoid giving oppo hitters a third look at his starters, and that we will continue to see a relatively "quick" hook from him. In that scenario, a larger bullpen is important, in which case a bench full of versatile utility players is very important.
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Cubs starting pitchers are #2 in NL in average IP per start at 6.12, behind only the Mets.
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Think Alcantara on way out--prime trade bait--as Cubs don't need yet another high K guy on the club. Think he would be attractive to bunch of clubs.
Think maybe Villanueva might be creating some trade interest. 290-348-500 line at Iowa and good 3B defense.
Vogelbach, of course.
Cubs probably willing to trade any pitcher in system--perhaps other than Underwood and high ceiling Cease--in right deal.
Even McKinney might become expendable if somebody else is moved to LF.
Junior Lake build up some trade value with his Soler DL plate appearances.
Is there a Cole Hamels deal somewhere in and around there?
I don't think the Phillies would trade Hamels without getting one of Bryant, Russell, Soler, Schwarber, Baez. I doubt he's headed to the Cubs. For me Baez, Schwarber, Torres, McKinney are untouchable. Underwood is nearly untouchable.
Lake, Sczuzr, Villaneuva, Pineyro, Vogelbach would all be guys I would trade. I doubt the Cubs are going to make a big splash in trades, but minor tweaks would be possible.
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Lake, Sczuzr, Villaneuva, Pineyro, Vogelbach would all be guys I would trade. I doubt the Cubs are going to make a big splash in trades, but minor tweaks would be possible.
You're getting nothing with that group.
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Luckily 2015 is the end of the Cubs being competitive.
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Schwarber: 3-5, 3 RBI
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_03_tenaax_cngaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 1-4, BB, 3 K, E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_03_cedafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Peguero: 2-5, RBI, BB, 2 SB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_03_dcurok_drxrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_03_vcurok_vtirok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Pelicans off.
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Baez: 1-3, BB, K, HBP
Alcantara: 2-5, SB, BB, K
Edwards: 2-2-1-1-0-3
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_03_iowaaa_albaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Black made his relief debut, 2 perfect innings with 3 K's.
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reb mentioned Villanueva. His hitting numbers are much improved this season. he's been a high-K guy for years; but this year at Iowa his K's have been pretty good, and with that has come nice overall numbers.
Defensively, he's got a LOT of errors. Like 13 or 11 or something like that already. VERY high for a 3B.
But I agree with reb, Alcantara and Villanueva might be guys who some other team might have some interest in. Not going to get an excellent player for guys like that, but perhaps a piece.
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For guys that are close to the majors they will get a premium. Like you said not an excellent player, but somebody that could help the Cubs and hopefully have more than a couple months of control.
Villanueva is supposed to be the best defensive 3B in the system and it is 13 errors, one was today at 1B.
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Two of Schwarber's hits yesterday in a TV highlight package:
http://www.local8now.com/sports/headlines/Schwarber-Contreras-Power-6-3-Win-306057251.html
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Contreras is due for a slump, and he's riding a suspicious .368 BABIP. (He was sub-.300 the previous two seasons.) His K% has dropped from 21% to 15% this year, without his walk % dropping much (9% to 8%). Hard to cut the K's without that involving a more aggressive, walk-reducing change of approach, so that's really encouraging. His IsoP is also up, from .117 to .186. (Was .174 in A-, so perhaps not so flukey.) Just turned 23 within the last month, so while he's not notably young, neither is he age-inappropriate for AA. If he starts next year in AAA at age 23, that seems A-OK age-wise. 29K/5HR, that's a pretty respectable ratio, if he can continue to hit some HR's. He's 4th in the Southern League in OPS, so only one non-Smokie ahead of him (and that's a guy with like 40 K's in 150 AB.)
Time will tell how sustainable this level of offense is. His previous seasons having ranged from .673-.742 OPS, it's doubtful this is really sustainable. And his drop in K-rate and K/HR ratio is probably likewise unsustainable, as is the big BABIP. Still, the bar isn't that high for big-league catchers. He's got a chance to be a competitive hitter, perhaps an asset offensively, relative to the position.
I think as interesting as is the question of how sustainable his current hitting prowess will be is the question of how he projects as a defensive catcher. If some other team scouts/projects him as a *PLUS* defensive catcher, then he'd seem to be a very valuable prospect. (Top ten in our system then, right?) But I don't really have much feel for what he is, or what he will become, defensively.
With very little information, I somehow have the sense that he may be something of an anti-Schwarber defensively. Schwarber seems to lack some physical quickness/gifts for blocking and throwing etc.; but may project VERY favorably in terms of the people skills, intensity, working with pitchers, calling pitches, etc. (And we know he's very aware and WANTS to be a good pitcher framer, too. Whether that translates into actually being a good pitch framer, I have no idea....) So, Schwarber seems limited physically, but projects well on the intangibles. I wonder if Contreras doesn't have a much higher ceiling as regards the physical tools for catching; but may not necessarily project as favorably in terms of the intangibles, game-calling, that kind of stuff?
I'm curious how Contreras and Alcantara might compare in terms of trade value. And whether Contreras might not be emerging as an actual long-term regular-catcher possibility for the Cubs, in the event that Schwarber gets moved?
Will be interesting to see how the season sustains for Willson, and to see what the post-season scouting evals on him look like.
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Contreras is extremely athletic behind the plate. I'm not sure about framing/pitch calling, but the other things he should do every well.
He'd be a great back up to Schwarber. Right handed bat and he can play other positions as well.
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Reports indicate that Contreras is very athletic with a good arm. I have never seen a report on how well he calls games or how well he frames pitches.
Perhaps not surprising. I recall very few reports on how well a minor league catcher calls a game, and I do not remember a single report on any minor league catcher, ever, on how well he does pitch framing.
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That should tell you something.
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It tells me that pitch framing and game calling take a long time to learn.
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To quantify pitch framing you also need pitch F/X data. Not just from your home park, but it needs to be adjusted for umps and pitchers. The Cubs could put it in their park, but it wouldn't be strong enough statistically to do anything with it. You can judge the skills and think they can do it, but to really know it it requires pitch F/X, which isn't in minor league parks as far as I know.
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http://www.elkharttruth.com/sports/South-Bend-Cubs/2015/06/04/Trevor-Clifton-a-small-town-boy-from-Tennessee-is-getting-used-to-playing-pro-baseball-for-South-Bend-Cubs.html
A couple of video links and talking about how the Cubs want him to focus on location.
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Grew up 30 miles south of Knoxville, and hates the Vols...I think I have a new favorite prospect...
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Jesse Sanchez tweeted a story about Martinez, the 20 year old Cuban OF that is the #1 IFA prospect, and when asked to name a leader he said the Cubs have shown serious interest.
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He's the guy who's signature is speed? Is he supposed to be a CFer, I assume? Given that's the biggest position hole in the Cubs system, could see pursuing him making a lot of sense, if they scout him favorably.
Technical question: is there a terminus to the signing period? In other words, can the Yankees and Red Sox and Diamondbacks still sign guys this month? Or has their window closed? I thought there was maybe some sunset date on that, but can't remember.
I also seem to recall the Cubs worrying that their Galindo signing was taking too long dragging through mlb approval, and they were worried whether if it wasn't completed/finalized by the cutoff date, they'd have a problem. So, my other question is, even if the Red Sox did come to an agreement to still sign Martinez, next week or even tomorrow, would the machinery of mob-approval work fast enough to allow that? Or with less than a month till July, has the window perhaps already closed for Martinez signing with teams who will be cost-restricted during the upcoming year?
Last Q: which teams are over their cap and will be out of the bidding in July? Red Sox, Yankees, Diamondbacks, who else?
if the deal hasn't already been made but just kept undercover, might it be too late to get it done through mlb in time?
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There is a terminus, and it is either June 15 or June 20, so I don't believe it has passed yet. I assume that the final 10 or 15 days are to allow resolution of the kinds of problems you mentioned.
I don't know who else might have gone over the limit, but if anyone signs him this year will certainly go over if they have not already done so.
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Schwarber: 2-4, 2 RBI
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_04_cngaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Peguero: 4-5
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_04_dcurok_drnrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_04_vtirok_vcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 2B, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_04_cedafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Myrtle Beach:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_04_cmcafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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The Cuban is supposed to have 70 speed and 50 power.
I believe June 15th is the cut off date.
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Do we know anything about Peguero?
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Rail thin, line-drive hitter with speed and, apparently, a great eye and idea at the plate.
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His OBA is .640. If he could keep that up in the majors, he wouldn't even need to keep his slugging average at .684. .550 or so would be more than good enough.
Of course, we don't know if he can play defense.
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If the Cubs are thinking about calling up Baez, he might have helped them make that decision tonight.
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Villanueva I think is over .900 OPS. Alcantara is getting close, too. Those guys and Baez all bunching up around .900 each.
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Baez: 0-5, 4 K, GIDP
Alcantara: 1-2, 2B, 3 BB, 2 SB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_04_iowaaa_albaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Wasnt it Chris who told me I was wrong for saying Villanueva still had some trade value?
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Why? did they get something for him?
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For virtually all of the 55+ years I've been a huge Cub fan, guys like Christian Villanueva, Willson Contreras and Matt Szczur would have had guys like us going wild.
What a difference a top-level front office (and really tremendous "inventory" in a farm system) can make!!
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The HR that Villanueva hit last night was an absolute bomb. That's three games in a row that he's hit a HR. As good as Baez looked at the plate three nights ago, he was very bad last night. Swinging at bad pitches. His frustration kicked in after the 4th K and he got into a verbal spat with the Isotopes third baseman. It's plain to see that he is focusing on minimizing the leg kick, but it came back as the frustration set in.
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Schwarber and McKinney are on BA's all prospect team for May:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/baseballist-prospect-team-may/
And Schwarber is #2 on this week's Hot Sheet:
2. Kyle Schwarber, c, Cubs
Team: Double-A Tennesee (Southern)
Age: 22
Why He’s Here: .429/.500/.679 (12-for-28), 7 R, 1 2B, 2 HR, 10 RBIs, 4 BB, 4 SO, 0-for-0 SB
The Scoop: Is Kyle Schwarber ready for the big time? To paraphrase Christina Aguilera: The bat is saying yes, but the glove is saying no. Nobody can deny the demolition Schwarber has dealt Southern League pitchers. If not for trailing Mississippi’s Mallex Smith by eight points in the batting race, then he would own the league’s coveted triple-slash triple crown at .327/.446/.600. Point is: He’s raking. Schwarber’s glovework, however, has gotten less than stellar reviews, though he’s worked hard to make himself better behind the plate. Maybe it won’t matter, because barring injury, Chicago won’t have room this season unless his glove improves or he changes positions.
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Alcantara: 2-5, 2 K, CS
Baez: 1-5, 2B, RBI, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_05_iowaaa_albaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Mckinney: 2-4, 2B, 2 RBI
Schwarber: 1-3, HBP, K, 2-4 SB/CS
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_05_cngaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 3-5, RBI, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_05_cedafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Rodriguez: 6-1/3 -6-4-4-0-5, 2 HR
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_05_vcurok_vtbrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Underwood: 5-1/3 -7-4-4-1-4
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_05_cmcafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Myrtle Beach Gm 2:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_05_cmcafa_myrafa_2&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Schwarber throws out a runner:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=146788983&sid=milb
2-run single from Schwarber beating the shift:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?&sid=milb&content_id=145875383
Diving Almora catch:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?&sid=milb&content_id=146812483
Villanueva's homer from Thursday; he has a big leg kick too; short swing with little movement
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?&sid=milb&content_id=145612183
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Peguero: 0-2, BB, K, E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_05_drnrok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Rumblings on Twitter than Schwarber or Contrares might be getting a promotion to Iowa.
Edit: Nevermind they were talking about Davis moving to the OF, but he has hardly caught this year.
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Baez: 2-4, HR, 2 RBI, K, E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_06_mrbaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
McKinney: 2-4, 2B, RBI
Black: 2-1-0-0-2-2
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_06_biraax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Skulina: 6-3-1-1-1-8
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_06_cmcafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Myrtle Beach Gm 2:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_06_cmcafa_myrafa_2&t=g_box&sid=milb
South Bend:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_06_qcsafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_06_vtbrok_vcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Peguero: 1-3, 3B
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_06_dbrrok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Baez' homer which he hit about 9 miles included a rather substantial leg kick:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=148612283&sid=milb
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Just a fun comparison stats at AAA through yesterday
Baez .308/.384/.519
Correa .253/.324/.429
Lindor .269/.342/.393
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If Baez keeps it up thru the end of this month, he has a good shot of being called up by the end of June, but if he really expects to have a strong shot, he should pick it up another notch. Hitting .308 in Iowa, particularly for a guy who has spent half a season in the majors, is not really a performance-based demad for a return to Wrigley.
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FIP/ERA (as per FanGraphs) This year and last (for the Myrtle beach bunch versus at Kane County)
Blackburn: 3.06/4.15 3.84/3.23
Skulina: 3.65/3.75 3.77/3.21
Torrez: 3.43/3.91 3.64/2.73
Tseng: 3.69/4.14 3.28/2.40
Underwood: 4.09/2.15 4.42/2.50
1. Interesting that other than Tseng, the other four have all variably/modestly improved their FIP from last year thus far, despite the promotion.
2. None have massively improved their FIP either, as one might hope for a blossoming/emerging young guy at the A-ball level.
3. At Kane, all five had ERA's that were lower, usually *MUCH* lower, than their FIP. At Myrtle, other than Underwood the other four all have ERA's that are high than FIP.
4. Underwood massive differential. Interesting with best ERA, worst FIP. Obviously he's a HR-ish guy with low K's at present. Hopefully the K's will come in time.
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Baez left the game early with what Tommy Birch is saying looks like a hand injury after stealing second.
More reports now that it might be a jammed/broken finger vs wrist.
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Ash Marshall @AshMarshallMLB 7m7 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Javier Baez jammed his left ring finger. Marty Pevey said he'll miss a couple days if bruised/sprained, 4-6 weeks + rehab if broken. #Cubs
Ash Marshall @AshMarshallMLB 6m6 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Marty Pevey said there's no good time for any injury, but especially with transition to 3B, timing was "not good, that's for sure" #Cubs
Ash Marshall @AshMarshallMLB 5m5 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Pevey on Baez: "You just feel like he's fixing to take off. You can almost sense it. You feel like he's about to blossom real quick." #Cubs
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Baez left the game early with what Tommy Birch is saying looks like a hand injury after stealing second.
More reports now that it might be a jammed/broken finger vs wrist.
That could be a real problem if it's a broken finger and not merely a jam. At the same time, considering that he has already been in the majors before, even if he's out for six weeks while it heals, that would still allow him to get considerable playing time back in the majors in September, assuming he does reasonably well in August after returning to Iowa after a break would heal.
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Vogelbach should be back tomorrow.
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Bring him up.
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Edwards: 1-0-0-0-1-2, HB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_07_mrbaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Schwarber: 1-2, BB, 2 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_07_biraax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
South Bend:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_07_qcsafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs 6m6 minutes ago
Javier Baez injury news to be posted momentarily. Hint: It's not good.
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Mark Gonzales @MDGonzales 50s50 seconds ago
Baez non-displaced fracture of left ring finger
4-8 weeks.
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Rats.
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Cubs luck for Baez.
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Could have been worse. It could have been the wrist. Hopefully it is more 4 weeks than 8.
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Exactly...
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Rub some dirt on it and get your ass back out there
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The 4-8 weeks is from Baez. The Cubs will reevaluate later this week. I doubt it will be longer than 8 weeks with a nondisplaced fracture.
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Rub some dirt on it and get your ass back out there
Why would rubbing dirt on his ass help heal his finger?
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Zagunis: 2-4, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_07_cmcafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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McLeod Baez out 6-8 weeks and Schwarber will not be called up to DH against Detriot.
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McLeod Baez out 6-8 weeks and Schwarber will not be called up to DH against Detriot.
UGH and UGH (didn't expect it but still, looking at the roster... UGH!)
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Schwarber will not be called up to DH against Detriot.
good
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Iowa:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_08_mrbaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Peguero: 2-5, 2B, 2 RBI, E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_08_dcurok_dbrrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL Gm 1:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_08_vtirok_vcurok_2&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL Gm 2:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_08_vtirok_vcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Tenn, South Bend, and Myrtle Beach rained out.
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Jacob Turner is starting for AA Tennessee tonight.
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Turner through 3.2 innings had given up an infield single and had 4 K. Then he fell apart.
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That's kinda his track record, isn't it?
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Turner gave up a two-run homer. That's a big deal?
Think that's a good opening start for him.
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Tennessee no-hit in the 7 inning game.
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Hmm. Turner is a pretty interesting guy if he can be fixed and is another relief arm that isn't Schlitter even if he can't, so good news is welcome. I'll wait for the Chris Report to see his line.
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Think Turner's value is as a starter, not bullpen.
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Turner is a starter. He was cruising. Gave up a single, 2 run homer, walk. It wasn't a horrible start, but it should have been much better. Similar to Jon Lester.
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Alcantara: 2B, RBI
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_09_mrbaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Vogelbach returns:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_09_biraax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Schwarber: 2-4, HR, 2 RBI
Almora: 2-4, 2 2B, 2 RBI
Black: 1/3 -3-4-4-2-1, WP
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_09_biraax_tenaax_2&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_09_vcurok_vtirok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
DSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_09_dcurok_dtirok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Zagunis: 1-3, BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_09_myrafa_frdafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
MB 2:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_09_myrafa_frdafa_2&t=g_box&sid=milb
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http://www.local8now.com/sports/headlines/All-Star-Schwarber-swatting-SL-pitchers-306685601.html?device=phone&c=y
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Almora double off the wall:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?&sid=milb&content_id=153086283
And a diving catch from Almora:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?&sid=milb&content_id=153167383
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Another Almora diving catch from a few days ago:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=148529683&sid=milb
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Almora double off the wall:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?&sid=milb&content_id=153086283
That swing certainly had some lift to it.
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Almora's hot spell has lifted his OPS to .630 and his OBP to .293.
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CJ Wittmann from BP is watching Underwood today. 91-94 with a lot of 94's through 5. Underwood is working on fastball command. Wittmann thinks his curve could end up as a plus pitch, 11-5 with sharp break.
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CJ Wittmann @CJWittJr 28m28 minutes ago
Duane Underwood needs to get more prospect love. Feel for 3 pitches w/ 2 pot. plus. Crazy athletic and repeats. Role 6; #3 SP OFP. #cubs
CJ Wittmann @CJWittJr 54m54 minutes ago
@rlinares98 Role 6; #3 SP. I don't think his utility of command and/or lack of elite secondaries allow him to get to a TOR arm.
CJ Wittmann @CJWittJr 51m51 minutes ago
@rlinares98 #1/2 are. Role 7 and 8 are considered TOR. Upper 10% of the league. I don't see Underwood getting there. But he's v good.
CJ Wittmann @CJWittJr 22m22 minutes ago
He'll lots of love over at @baseballpro. Very impressive. Big time talent. #cubs CJ Wittmann added,
Ace @AceBlack_
@CJWittJr Kiley gave him love over at fangraphs. Upset I couldn't go see him tonight.
CJ Wittmann @CJWittJr 14m14 minutes ago
I'll make a really strong case for him. Big time talent. #Cubs CJ Wittmann added,
Ben Diamond @diamondbc1
@CJWittJr Wow, I'm surprised. Any chance he sneaks into the top-100 by midseason?
Jordan Miller @Cubs_Prospects 12m12 minutes ago
@CJWittJr with such good stuff, why the lack of Ks?
CJ Wittmann
@Cubs_Prospects Lot of factors -- not sequencing, 90% FB utility, working FB command. Kind of like how Pirates org. develop pitchers
Jordan Miller @Cubs_Prospects 8m8 minutes ago
CJ Wittmann @CJWittJr 10m10 minutes ago
@Cubs_Prospects For example, he was up 0-2, 0-1 and still pounds FB inner half where he should show offspeed pitch. He finds weak contact
CJ Wittmann @CJWittJr 8m8 minutes ago
@Cubs_Prospects He has a big league FB/CB combo that generated plenty of swings and misses tonight.
CJ Wittmann @CJWittJr 9m9 minutes ago
@Cubs_Prospects He still has trouble locating but I think it can get to avg cmd. Trust the delivery, extension and replication. Like him
CJ Wittmann @CJWittJr 36m36 minutes ago
@FullCountTommy A lot of things factor in. Not sequencing, working exclusively 90% FB, working FB cmd. Can all alter K numbers to be low
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Underwood sounds a bit like Samardzija in development. Sam didn't have many Ks until he hit the bigs and found his FB command and split. No K problem then.
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Torres: 2-4, RBI, SB, 2 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_10_souafx_burafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Zagunis: 3-6, 2 RBI
Underwood: 6-3-1-1-1-3
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_10_myrafa_frdafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
DSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_10_dtirok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_10_vtbrok_vcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Iowa off, Tennessee rained out.
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Any idea what happened to Pelaskis? David Price and Vogelbach tweeted him get well wishes.
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Pierce Johnson is set to start at AA.
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Schwarber and Vogelbach will start for the SL all-star team.
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1. Johnson with 3 shutout innings (3H/1BB/2K) in his debut.
2. Schwarber didn't start, Contreras did. Schwarber than pinch hit for Contreras in the 4th inning. Hope Contreras didn't get injured.
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Schwarber: 1-3, 2B, E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_11_tenaax_jaxaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Myrtle Beach:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_11_myrafa_frdafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Iowa and South Bend rained out.
DSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_11_dbwrok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Rodriguez: 5-2-0-0-0-7, 22-1/3 IP, 0 BB, 23 K, 5 BB, 56 K's last year
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_11_vcurok_vtbrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Accoding to the summary on MLB Traderumors, Lucius Fox is signing with the Dodgers. The Cubs, Dodgers, and Royals are going into the penalty. With the Phillies and Blue Jays possibly as well. It sure seems like the Cubs are just going to get the scraps that the Dodgers don't want/have room for. I really wonder if they will break the $100 million barrier on it.
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Contreras was pulled in the 4th inning without an injury yesterday. Could be a promotion or trade or just nothing.
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I hate the Dodgers.
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Contreras was pulled in the 4th inning without an injury yesterday. Could be a promotion or trade or just nothing.
I'm thinking that Contreras has probably caught Johnson before, while Schwarber hadn't and they wanted to make Johnson as comfortable as possible for his first start of the season. Once Johnson was pulled (submit your jokes now, please), Schwarber replaced Contreras.
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A very plausible explanation. May well be right.
Or, could be Contreras had a stomach problem and was pulled because he threw up.
Most interesting thing is that a prospect of sorts gets pulled out of a game and Twitter is all over it with rumors. Gotta love it.
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Thanks Jeff, that makes good sense. Hadn't thought of that aspect.
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PSD was talking about hugs in the dugout. Jeff's is a good explanation, I believe the Smokies basically said no comment.
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Hugs, huh. INteresting.
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Maybe the hugs were to reassure him after he threw up?
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Boy, now that's a good teammate.
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Really good sequence of posts there. Loved it.
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Hamstring, so it was nothing.
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Skulina 7K in 7 shutout innings. I suspect the longest outing of his pro career. In the pitch-count controlled minors, he's gone 6 innings (or today 7) in six of his last 7 starts, and allowed a total of 6 earned runs in this six good starts. (He allowed 3 in the one bad start.)
Almora's around .611. VSL team had a 6'6" 17-year-old lefty start and throw four innings without any earned runs.
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Schwarber was the only thing standing in the way of the Smokies getting no-hit again.
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_12_tenaax_jaxaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Alcantara: 2B, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_12_cspaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Skulina: 7-2-0-0-4-7
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_12_lynafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_12_vcurok_vphrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
South Bend Gm 1:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_12_souafx_burafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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It would be nice if Skulina got some of his velocity back and that is what was leading to the better starts.
Stinnett ran into some bad luck in the 4th. First batter got on by an error by the third baseman. Then an infield hit to the third baseman. A ground ball single to LF led to the bases being loaded. Somehow the runner on third did not score. A groundball single to RF scored the first run and Wayne Greztky's son hit a line drive single to center to score the second run. In between he got a couple strike outs and a ground out to first to get out of the inning.
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I read Skulina was throwing 93 in the 7th inning. 93 isn't that fast for a RHP, really. But that's pretty solid, and faster than he worked last year. 93 in the 7th inning might also fit with being a guy who'd be able to go mid-90s in relief.
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93 makes him interesting again. I think it was a knee injury last year, but I thought he wasn't even breaking ninety.
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Skulina will be 24 in three months.
With the nice run he's had lately, he should be moved up to AA.
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Alcantara: 3B, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_12_cspaaa_iowaaa_2&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 0-4, BB, 3 K, SB, 7-40, 18 K's in June
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_12_souafx_burafx_2&t=g_box&sid=milb
Peguero: 2-4, 3B, RBI, BB, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_12_dcurok_dbwrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Peguero is off to a nice start in the DSL:
http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=660691#/career/R/hitting/2015/ALL
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Chris Pieters, the kid that washed out as a lefty pitcher, is now playing first base and hitting .222. With a .532 OBA.
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Willson Contreras pinch hit today, so I guess he was removed the other night because he was a little nicked up. There was speculation that he was pulled out of the game due to a trade.
Has anyone heard why Contreras was pulled the other night after one AB?
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CubsBlueJays said it was a hamstring.
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I really need to change my name, but it was a hamstring tweak according to Arguella.
It is Creighton University Bluejays. It didn't even dawn on me that it spelled out Cub until a few years ago.
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Schwarber didn't play today. Let the rumors begin.
Big day for Hannemann: homer, triple, two doubles. That's better than a cycle, right?
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Hannemann: 4-6, 2 2B, 3B, GS, 6 RBI, K
McKinney: HR (1)
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_13_tenaax_jaxaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_13_vphrok_vcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Hannemann's triple:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=162798983&sid=milb
Hannemann's grand slam:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=162775083&sid=milb
Schwarber's double from last night that he just kinda flicked 320 ft.
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=162611683&sid=milb
And another double from earlier in the week:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=159197583&sid=milb
Alcantara triple:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=162589183&sid=milb
Alcantara double:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=162588383&sid=milb
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Tseng: 4-2/3 - 8-6-6-2-5
Paniagua: 1-1/3 -4-4-4-1-2
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_13_lynafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Iowa:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_13_cspaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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South Bend:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_13_souafx_peoafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
DSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_13_dcurok_dmlrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Black, Bautista, Pena, and Francescon make the SL all-star team joining Vogelbach and Schwarber.
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Thanks for all these Chris.
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On Cubs Den, former MLB pitcher Dirk Hayhurst wrote an open letter to baseball draftees which is outstanding. I'm unable to provide the link. Sorry. It's worth a read.
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One thing that shocks me is that a MLB, especially a forward thinking team like the Cubs, doesn't provide meals for their players in the minors. MLB is far behind what even NCAA teams provide their players. It really wouldn't cost a lot of money to hire some dietitians, develop an eating plan for each player and have that food in the clubhouse or in the bus for them.
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One thing that shocks me is that a MLB, especially a forward thinking team like the Cubs, doesn't provide meals for their players in the minors. MLB is far behind what even NCAA teams provide their players. It really wouldn't cost a lot of money to hire some dietitians, develop an eating plan for each player and have that food in the clubhouse or in the bus for them.
That would be surprising. Do we know that is the case with the Cubs and/or all the other teams?
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Every time I've heard an interview about minor leaguers they have to buy their own meals. Most of the D1 college guys say it was better in college. It might have changed, but my impression of clubhouse food it was more of a snack variety.
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I certainly have no contrary information. That would be a good question for Theo or Jed or McLeod if anyone ever gets a chance. Hard to believe that with all of the attention and expense given minor leaguers by the new regime that they would have neglected nutrition.
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One advantage in college is that athletes eat on campus in controlled/together cafeteria. Easier to manage everything that way.
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Having an individual on each team responsible for physical therapy, nutrition, strength conditioning, and even financial and social counseling would be ideal. Craig, get your university to begin offering that as a major! However, I agree with Craig that buses, motels, and catching food on the run is not like college campus life. About the only real thing that an individual as I described could do is make sure that athletes are not living entirely off of Big Macs, buffalo wings, and fries.
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BTW, I meant all those duties in ONE individual. Obviously 4 individuals would get pricey.
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We have been told that breakfast and supper will be provided with lunch being on the player.
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One thing that shocks me is that a MLB, especially a forward thinking team like the Cubs, doesn't provide meals for their players in the minors. MLB is far behind what even NCAA teams provide their players. It really wouldn't cost a lot of money to hire some dietitians, develop an eating plan for each player and have that food in the clubhouse or in the bus for them.
I remember reading that in Mesa, they provide meals, and in Boise (don't know about Eugene) the players live in homes in the area with families that have contracted to provide food and lodging for the kids. After that, I believe they are on their own.
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At Tennessee game.. Hanneman and Almora K pretty easy to start game... Turner 90-92..2 hard hit outs.. Schwaber walked.. Looked like pitcher wanted nothing to do with him
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Turner goes 5 innings, 2 hits, no runs, 1 walk and 3 strike outs. Good job, even considering the level of competition.
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Turner got stronger later in game.. Throwing a few 93-94 fastballs... Schwaber has had 2 passed balls.. Leading to jacksonvilles run... He also kicked a ball in the dirt earlier resulting in a runner advancing... Jacksonville wanted nothing to do with him when batting
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Somehow Schwarber/Vogelbach pulled off a double steal.
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Speed always tells in the end.
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Maybe the catcher went into shock.
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I don't think Hanneman has a shot... Looked late on 92 fastballs... Bruno looks like a better hitter than Almora... But just a singles type... Black was throwing 90-91
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The holy grail of highlights:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=164609383&sid=milb
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That catcher should just retire.
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When Billy Hamilton or Kile Schwarber decide to steal, there isn't much the catcher can do about it.
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Torres with five hits including a double and homer in five at bats.
They should give him a day off more often.
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A commenter elsewhere claims the Phillies were watching Torres tonight.
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Schwarber was the lead runner, right? He looked much thinner than I imagined...
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Torres for Hamels, Papelbon and 50 million dollars. Sounds about right.
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Zagunis: 2-5, 2B, 2 RBI
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_14_lynafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Almora: 2-5, 2B, 2 K
Schwarber: 0-2, 3 BB, K, SB, PB
Black: 2-1-1-0-1-2
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_14_tenaax_jaxaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Villanueva: 2-4, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_14_cspaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 5-5, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, thrown out at 3rd attempting the cycle in the 9th
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_14_souafx_peoafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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bitter, thanks much for the Tennessee observations.
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Article on Torres with quotes from his hitting coach:
http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150614&content_id=130697082&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb
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""He's a strong kid. He's going to develop some power in the future," Feliciano said. "We know that, and that's why we're very comfortable having him thinking more up the middle because that's his strength. "
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53ks in 210 abs for Torres.
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Welcome, Craig... They were pounding schwaber on the outside... wanted nothing to do with him... His catching was a mess today... They sat McKinney.. So I was a little surprised they didn't bother trying schwaber in left.. Schwaber is 2-3 years away if he's sticking @ catcher... Maybe there was just a miscommunication between him and the picture but the one run was the result of a couple passed balls
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Myrtle Beach:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_15_myrafa_wswafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Almora: 2-4, 3B, SF, RBI
Schwarber: 2-5, 2B, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_15_tenaax_jaxaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_15_vcurok_vtbrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
South Bend postponed.
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Almora: 2-4, 3B, SF, RBI
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_15_tenaax_jaxaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
I was thinking that Almora might have begun to turn a corner, so I looked at his stats: http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=546991#/career/R/hitting/2015/ALL
Six for his last 34, with one walk and 4 K's. His BABIP for his last 10 games is a pathetically weak .200 for his last ten games; .269 for the season. Fortunately his career BABIP provides some hope that his low K rate may help him become a valuable asset at the major league level.
For his minor league career he only has 132 K's in 1086 AB, to go with 311 hits and 16 HR's. Unless I am figuring it quite wrong (entirely possible), that gives him a career BABIP of .314, hardly remarkable, but with his low K rate it is still enough to hope that he could well make it to the majors as an asset.
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The odds against it seem to be quite a bit higher than they were when he was drafted. But there is still hope. Time will tell.
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Alcantara: 2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 3 K
Edwards: 2-2-1-1-1-2
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_15_iowaaa_omaaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Peguero: 1-3, BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_15_dmlrok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Question: Is 2 solo homers and 3 Ks a good developmental day at Iowa for Alcantara or a bad day?
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Britton is starting to look as if he might have been a decent pick up. And Williams had another pretty good start in AA.
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2 HR are good. 50% contact rate (5/10 swings) is bad. Gameday didn't tag the type of pitches.
Werner park is defiantly smaller than in dimensions from Rosenblatt, so it maybe a hitters park.
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Ryan Williams had another nice start tonight at AA (after starting the season at South Bend). No HR allowed this year (2 last season), he appears to be in the Kyle Hendricks mode.
Pitches off a 90 or sub-90 mph FB, but great location and solid off-speed stuff. Knows how to set up hitters.
Still a very long shot at this point, but so seemed Hendricks a couple years ago. No one's laughing now.
And Williams' Dad was a professional golf pro...as was Kyle Hendricks' Dad.
Though a long shot, Ryan Williams is probably worth keeping an eye on.
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2 HR are good. 50% contact rate (5/10 swings) is bad. Gameday didn't tag the type of pitches.
Werner park is defiantly smaller than in dimensions from Rosenblatt, so it maybe a hitters park.
Uh, yeah, the homers are the good part. No kidding.
But, I'm looking at the box score as a whole and wondering, as to development, is this good?
Alcantara now has 58 Ks in 226 PAs. That's a K rate of 25.67%.
Last year at Iowa his K rate was 22.67%. After that season, we know what happened with the Ks in the majors.
So, with a higher K rate, hard to see progress--even though putting up good numbers with iso power and slugging %. Hard to get a handle on this guy.
Today kind of tells the story, no? Power and three Ks. A good day or a bad day? Sums up his season so far.
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Torres: 5-5, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, thrown out at 3rd attempting the cycle in the 9th
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_14_souafx_peoafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
I was at the game, Chris. That hit in the ninth was his double, so he would have finished with three singles, a triple and a home run if he'd been safe at third.
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Almora's triple:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=167576283&sid=milb
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I was at the game, Chris. That hit in the ninth was his double, so he would have finished with three singles, a triple and a home run if he'd been safe at third.
Ok, I thought I had read that he was going for the cycle.
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Uh, yeah, the homers are the good part. No kidding.
But, I'm looking at the box score as a whole and wondering, as to development, is this good?
Alcantara now has 58 Ks in 226 PAs. That's a K rate of 25.67%.
Last year at Iowa his K rate was 22.67%. After that season, we know what happened with the Ks in the majors.
So, with a higher K rate, hard to see progress--even though putting up good numbers with iso power and slugging %. Hard to get a handle on this guy.
Today kind of tells the story, no? Power and three Ks. A good day or a bad day? Sums up his season so far.
Well it tells an incomplete story. For most hitters to hit for power it will lead to strikeouts. His strike out rate and contact percentage (73%) haven't changed at Iowa. His problem at the major league level this year was the inability to make contact on a change up low and away. Without the pitches getting tagged in game day you can't tell if there has been improvement.
So while I lean that nothing has changed, you can't really know for sure.
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Question: Is 2 solo homers and 3 Ks a good developmental day at Iowa for Alcantara or a bad day?
Maybe a good day for increasing his trade value to a team that is willing to absorb his Ks?
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I'd say any player who can hit 324 home runs, drive in around 500 runs, bat .400 and never hit into a double play would be somewhat valuable.
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I am not a scout, but I went to Sunday's and Monday's South Bend Cubs vs. Peoria Chiefs games.
So I saw Gleyber Torres' 5-5 game and his first home run in full-season ball. All five of his hits were solidly struck, no slow rollers or bloop hits. His home run hit the yellow line on top of the wall and actually bounced back onto the field. He was thrown out at third on his final hit, but it was a close play. The Cubs played error-free ball, and I didn't see any obvious defensive mistakes.
Sunday's game was rained out after 2-1/2 innings. Gleyber walked in the first and grounded out in the third, but they game was cancelled, so his consecutive hits streak is intact. Both teams have been eliminated from the first-half division crowns, so the game will not be made up later.
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Thanks, Cubsin
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Another good game for Underwood.
7 innings, 2 hits, no runs, 1 walk, 4 strike outs.
He will probably be going up to Tennessee before too long.
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Hard not to like Underwood's upside, but I wonder about the lack of K's.
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Zagunis: 2-4, 2B, 3 RBI, BB
Underwood: 7-2-0-0-1-4, 12-2 GO/FO
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_16_myrafa_wswafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 0-4
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_16_dayafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_16_vtbrok_vcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Smokies off.
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According to a BP guy that saw him he is not sequencing his pitches to get K's, but instead is working on his fastball command. Fewer numbers of breaking/off speed pitches. The thinking is when the command improves and the breaking pitches increase the K's will come.
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Alcantara: 0-5, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_16_iowaaa_omaaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
DSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_16_dcurok_dpirok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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According to a BP guy that saw him he is not sequencing his pitches to get K's, but instead is working on his fastball command. Fewer numbers of breaking/off speed pitches. The thinking is when the command improves and the breaking pitches increase the K's will come.
I wonder if that's just a reflection of the cubs developmental plan, or if the sequencing isn't good because Caratini isn't the best pitch caller?
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The BP guy implied developmental plan. The Pirates do something similar with all their pitchers not named Glasnow.
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Alcantara's second homer the other day:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=168843183&sid=milb
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Alcantara: 1-4, 3B, BB, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_17_iowaaa_omaaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Johnson 5 innings, 3 hits, no runs, 1 walk, 4 strike outs.
Ramirez 1 innings (so far) all zeros.
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Nice to see Johnson stretching out to 5 innings, and pitching effectively. 2 walks in 8 innings for him, if he could sustain that rate for 180 innings he might end up being good.
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Black: 2-1-0-0-0-1
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_17_msbaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Zagunis: 3-4, 3B, RBI, BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_17_myrafa_wswafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 1-3, BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_17_dayafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Peguero: 2-4, 2B, RBI, 2 BB, SB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_17_dpirok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_17_vphrok_vcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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6 ejections in SB game in 4th inning.
Either a brawl or lots of F-words toward umps that inning.
Yeah, probably a skirmish.
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Eugene's season begins tonight and its roster is very intriguing.
Jimenez, Marcano, Mitchell, and Delarosa lead the position players.
The pitching staff is stocked with names to watch: Sands, Steele, Paulino, Santana, Alzolay, De La Cruz, Araujo, even poor ole Dillon Maples. Also, Jae-Hoon Ha who has apparently moved to the mound.
http://www.milb.com/roster/index.jsp?sid=t461
A bit of a preview:
http://registerguard.com/rg/news/33206095-81/eugene-emeralds-open-season-thursday-at-everett.html.csp
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Smokies are on CBS Sports tonight.
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Law and Olney talk about Schwarber on podcast. First 15 minutes.
http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=13105746
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Iowa:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_18_iowaaa_rreaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Tenn suspended, MB rained out.
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_18_vcurok_vphrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 0-4, BB, 3 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_18_dayafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Stinnett only gave up an infield single and 2 walks. He was throwing a lot of first pitch strikes. It would be nice if he could turn it around.
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3 walks in the box score. He hasn't K'd many. But nice to see some effectiveness.
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Whoops. I thought I saw on Twitter it was 2 walks, 3 Ks.
I wonder if it is an Underwood situation, working on fastball command.
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Peguero: 2-5, 3B, RBI, E
Mejia: 1-1, HR, 2 RBI, 3 BB, SB, CS
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_18_dynrok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Jimenez: 2-4, RBI, 2 assists
Sands: 5-3-3-1-0-2
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_18_eugasx_eveasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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A couple DSL pitchers were suspended for PEDS. I can't remember their names.
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A couple DSL pitchers were suspended for PEDS. I can't remember their names.
http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs/mlb-suspends-two-cubs-minor-leaguers-ped-violations
The commissioner’s office announced the punishments on Thursday, identifying right-handers Assael Aquino and Luiz Escanio of the Dominican Summer League Cubs. Both players got suspended without pay for 72 games after testing positive for metabolites of Stanozolol.
Aquino and Escanio have been viewed as fringe prospects. Each pitcher will turn 23 years old next month.
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Happ starting in CF for Eugene.
Olt on rehab with the Smokies.
Soler took BP at Wrigley.
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I don't know how anyone else feels, but I wouldn't fool around with Happ at 2B. Just looking at someone like Dustin Ackley, for instance, it doesn't seem like pro ball is the right place to try to teach someone how to be competent at a new, more challenging position.
The Cubs need decent hitting outfielders anyway, so just leave him alone in the OF.
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Cubs Den actually had an interesting article about this. His contention was that defensive instruction at the college/high school level was rather poor and that the Cubs could teach defensive positions much easier than hitting.
Ackley's UZR/150 weren't actually bad at 2nd, I haven't actually seen him at second. Did he move off because he wasn't good or because the Mariners signed Cano? If the Mariners want to dump him I would be realllllllly interested in him becoming a Cub as a super sub.
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Ackley does seem like someone who could use a change of scenery for sure.
I just wonder how much trying to make him a second baseman contributed to him not becoming a good offensive player.
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He wasn't horrible last year. .202 BABIP is his issue.
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Happ with a single in his first pro at bat.
Call him up while he is still hot.
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McKinney: 3-3, 2B, BB
Vogelbach: 0-3, RBI, BB, K, .390 OPS in June
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_18_msbaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Zagunis: 4-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
Skulina: 4-0-3-0-6-1
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_19_lynafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 2-4, RBI
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_19_wmiafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Peguero: 2-5, SB, K, E
Mejia: 2-3, 2B, RBI, BB, SB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_19_dcurok_dynrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_19_vcurok_vtirok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Ackley does seem like someone who could use a change of scenery for sure.
I just wonder how much trying to make him a second baseman contributed to him not becoming a good offensive player.
This is one of the things so impressive about Schwarber---must be working like crazy on catching and has zero affect on his offense.
One key, as Hoyer said, is that Schwarber is all-in on catching.
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Edwards: 2-0-0-0-1-1
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_19_iowaaa_rreaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Vogelbach: 0-3, 3 K
McKinney: 2-2, RBI, BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_19_msbaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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McKinney: 3-3, 2B, BB
Vogelbach: 0-3, RBI, BB, K, .390 OPS in June
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_18_msbaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Zagunis: 4-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
Skulina: 4-0-3-0-6-1
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_19_lynafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 2-4, RBI
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_19_wmiafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Peguero: 2-5, SB, K, E
Mejia: 2-3, 2B, RBI, BB, SB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_19_dcurok_dynrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_19_vcurok_vtirok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
5 for 5 day, with a walk, for McKinney. Nice.
Mark Zagunis line is now 324-444-489. He's 22. Seems about time to move him up to Southern League. Knack for getting on base. A top 10 Cubs prospect now, right?
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I wonder if moving Almora down and getting him success might help. If not the Smokies already have 4 OF that need to play.
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I am inclined to leave Almora where he is. You can get ABs for 4 OFers. Rademacher is 24 and not so hot this season. He wouldn't be a factor for me blocking Zagunis. Maybe move up Rademacher at AAA to deal with the AB issue at Tenn.
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One of Zagunis' homers:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=179893783&sid=milb
His profile, stats, the somewhat unusual way he holds the bat... Wonder if he has some Jason Kendall in him.
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I would rather switch Zagunis and Rademacher, but I don't think it matters one way or another. I think that Rademacher has topped out.
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Mark Zagunis line is now 324-444-489. He's 22. Seems about time to move him up to Southern League. Knack for getting on base. A top 10 Cubs prospect now, right?
He's leading league (of qualified guys) in batting average, OBP, and OPS. Triple crown of sorts. Teams don't usually leave triple-crown leaders in a league for very long. That's one of the reasons he's leading, of course; the other guys who were going great have gotten promoted previously and become disqualified for the leader board.
But .444 OBP in A+, that's pretty unusual. Maybe got a chance to be kind of a LaStella with outfield skills?
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Happ: 1-5, K
Steele: 5-2-2-0-2-9
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_19_eugasx_eveasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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...... Maybe got a chance to be kind of a LaStella with outfield skills?
Oh, you mean kind of a LaStella but without infield skills?
Let us curb our enthusiasm.
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I'll take a LaStella that can play CF.
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I'll take a LaStella that can play CF.
Unfortunately, Cubs do not appear to be developing Zagunis as a CFer---6 career games in CF.
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Zagunis's numbers do compare favorably to LaStella's minor-league. I was just thinking of high-OBP contact hitters. But Zagunis's numbers this year are a little better than what LaStella had in the Carolina league, and LaStella was a year older. Zagunis has numbers right now that pretty much match what LaStella had in his AA season, when LaStella was 24, in which he posted a .444 OBP and .492 slugging.
This is not the first season in which we have bench players who are pretty easy outs. I might not mind a time with a LaStella type available for 2B/3B, and a Zagunis type for LF/RF with a little bit of CF.
Might also be fun to have a really good OBP guy leading off. Dexter Fowler is hitting .239 with a .319 OBP. It wouldn't be the end of the world to have a good-fielding LFer who could leadoff with a .370 OBP or something like that, somehow. Not assuming Zagunis could ever become that, but if he really could be an OBP machine, but without 15 HR's, it's not like that might not be a useful lineup guy.
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If I haven't lost count, McKinney's 3 for 3 so far today gives him 8 straight hits. Not bad at AA level.
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Plus 2 BB's makes him 10/10 getting on base.
Almora with a pinch hit triple.
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Okay, solves Zagunis issue. Move McKinney to AAA.
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One of the values of a full minor league system is that there is no reason to rush prospects. I see no problem at all in leaving both McKinney and Zagunis where they are for most of the season.
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McKinney maybe because he's getting close.
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One of the values of a full minor league system is that there is no reason to rush prospects. I see no problem at all in leaving both McKinney and Zagunis where they are for most of the season.
Promoting=rushing?
It's not rushing if a guy is playing in a league appropriate level.
As to McKinney, you missed the joke. Not advocating moving him up just yet.
Zagunis--age 22 moving to AA---that's rushing? The guy is near .450 OBP in A ball.
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Happ home run.
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Move him up.
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Zagunis was an amateur less than one years ago. He has played less than three months in high A. Less than that in low A. There is absolutely no reason to move him up at this point. Yes, that would be rushing him.
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Zagunis: 1-4
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_20_lynafa_myrafa_2&t=g_box&sid=milb
McKinney: 3-4, 2B, HR, 3 RBI
Almora: 2-2, 3B, 3 RBI
Black: 2-2-2-2-3-2
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_20_msbaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Zagunis: 2 BB, 2 SB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_20_lynafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 2-4, 2 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_20_wmiafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_20_vtirok_vcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Mejia: 2 BB, 2 E
Cabrera: 3-1/3 -4-1-1-1-7
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_20_dcurok_metrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Maples didn't walk anyone, hit anyone, or throw any wild pitches, and still gave up 4 runs.
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Only 4 runs. good to see he is making progress.
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Happ homered off a rehabbing Iwawkawa.
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Zagunis was an amateur less than one years ago. He has played less than three months in high A. Less than that in low A. There is absolutely no reason to move him up at this point. Yes, that would be rushing him.
McKinney was sent back to high-A to begin the 2015 season, reportedly because of his defense and presumably because the Myrtle Beach coaches were better instructors for basic outfield defense. I have no idea if Zagunis' defensive skills are good or not, but it could be all or part of the reason he hasn't been promoted yet.
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Maples didn't walk anyone, hit anyone, or throw any wild pitches, and still gave up 4 runs.
Well, unearned runs.
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Alcantara: 0-4
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_20_iowaaa_rreaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Happ: 1-4, HR, RBI, BB, K
De La Cruz: 4-5-3-2-3-6, 2 HB, Balk
Ha: 1-4-2-2-1-2
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_20_eugasx_eveasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Mesa shut out on opening night:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_20_brrrok_cubrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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McKinney homer:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?&sid=milb&content_id=183600383
Another diving catch from Hannemann:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=183627283&sid=milb
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Happ played CF last night.
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Nice opening for Austyn Willis. Interesting to see Moreno pitch, and effectively. 5G/0A for him. Frazier with a shutout inning.
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Frazier with only 1 walk is impressive. If he could cure the yips....
Willis just needs a few mph on his fastball and he could be really interesting.
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From a Jed Hoyer Interview on MLB radio from Thurs.
On the Cubs plans for first round draft pick Ian Happ
“With Ian [Happ], we’ve had a lot of success drafting college hitters at the top of the draft. There is a certain comfort that we have drafting college hitters that have performed on the Cape [Cape Cod League] and performed in college baseball. Ian really fits that mold. He’s a switch-hitter. He’s got power from both sides. He controls the strike zone and we like the defensive versatility. He really fits for us very nicely. Right now we are going to have him play outfield for the rest of this season. I think in the Instructional League we will definitely work on him at second base. Given the short season after the draft we feel like the best thing to do is just let him play outfield, let him get a lot of at bats. We can work in Arizona once the season ends on the infield stuff.”
Any truth to the rumor the Cubs offered Javier Baez, before he got hurt, to the Mets for Steven Matz?
“No. No. Everyone always tries to connect us with the Mets as far as trades. We’ve got good relationships with Sandy [Alderson] and Paul [DePodesta] and J.P. [Ricciardi]. That rumor itself is totally untrue. I’m not sure where that came from.”
With the team winning games, will the Cubs approach the trade deadline differently than the front office thought they would before season started?
“Certainly the most important thing whenever you talk about the deadline is the team that put you in the position to need to make those kinds of moves. Obviously this has been a fun season so far. We’ve played a lot of close games. I think we’ve got 27 or 28 one-run games and our guys have shown the ability to battle and win a lot of those games. We are still pretty far away and we still have, I guess five weeks or so until the deadline, but we’ve put ourselves in a position to be buyers. I think that we will try to be aggressive but we are still not in the mode … we are going to try to make deals that make sense for now and make sense for the future. We know that we have a really good team now. We also know we have a chance to have a pretty special future and the last thing we want to do is mortgage that future for right now. We will try to make moves that make sense for now and the future.”
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Well reasoned.
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Indeed. It's going to be really, really disappointing if these guys let us down, because I'm buying what they're selling.
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Torres: 0-2, 2 SF, 2 RBI, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_21_wmiafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Vogelbach: 2-5, 3 RBI
McKinney: 1-3, 2B, SF, 2 RBI, BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_21_msbaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Ramirez pitches again, last outing was the 17th, so this is a 4-day rest. 1-2-3 inning, K-K-K.
Ryan Williams effective again. Tennessee has put together a good run riding the consistent pitching of Williams, Pena, Batista, and Pineyro. Not sure how meaningful any of those four are as prospects, but they've been doing very well.
I wonder if Jacob Turner has had a setback? He hasn't pitched in 7 days, and was ahead of Williams last time through the rotation. I think they've had some rainouts? Maybe they've wanted to keep him on some very structured schedule, and he just threw on the side in place of the game? Anybody know.
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Zagunis didn't play.
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A second Happ(y) homer.
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Myrtle Beach:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_21_lynafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Happ: 2-4, 2B, HR, RBI, BB, K
Jimenez: 2-5, 4 RBI
Paulino: 5-2/3 -5-3-3-0-7
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_21_eugasx_eveasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Alcantara: 3-6, 2B, RBI, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_21_iowaaa_rreaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Paulino, that was 5 shutout innings with 2 hits, 6K/0BB, before giving up three hits in the 6th. Nice start.
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Anyone know where to get Rookie league stats? Cody is starting with the Peoria Mariners and they play in the same league as the Mesa Cubs. He doesn't think any of the games are streamed or twittered etc....
He is starting June 28 against the Dodgers and would love to be able to follow the game if possible.
Thanks
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Anyone know where to get Rookie league stats? Cody is starting with the Peoria Mariners and they play in the same league as the Mesa Cubs. He doesn't think any of the games are streamed or twittered etc....
He is starting June 28 against the Dodgers and would love to be able to follow the game if possible.
Thanks
http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?sid=milb&sc=rok&ymd=20150622
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Thanks Jes. I glanced that site and overlooked the rookie league.
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Chi...are you familiar with an app called GameChanger?
I just found a Peoria Mariners team on there. The admin is James Lofton, who I have verified is a coach in the Mariners system.
If they use GameChanger during their games, you can follow along pitch by pitch with the app.
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Dave, Yes I am very familiar with game changer. I used that with our High school team but never thought to look at that.
Thank you for sharing that!
I am flying out for his first start on Sunday. He starts on Sunday against the Dodgers and the Cubs are in Peoria on Monday so I am staying to see that game also. Will try to give an update when I get back next week.
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Yusnir Diaz, 18 year old, Cuban OF will be a free agent in the upcoming July 2 class. It was thought he was going to have wait until 2016 to sign. There are a few pitchers that might fall into this category as well.
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Zastryzny of all people is pitching in Mesa tonight.
Cubs have some 17-year-old Dominican-League 3B/1B who hit his 4th HR already.
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Rehab start for his foot injury.
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Zastryzny of all people is pitching in Mesa tonight.
Cubs have some 17-year-old Dominican-League 3B/1B who hit his 4th HR already.
Rafael Mejia, a $250K signee last summer.
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Dillon Maples faced three men. Three strike outs.
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Peguero: 1-4, BB, K
Mejia: 1-2, HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB (IBB)
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_22_metrok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_22_vcurok_vphrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Happ: 1-4, 2 K
Maples: 1-2-4-4-0-3, 2 HB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_22_eugasx_eveasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Cease: 2-3/ -2-2-0-1-1, 2 WP
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_22_cubrok_diarok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
All 4 full-season teams were off.
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Maples should have quit after one inning.
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Zastryzny 3WP and 2BB
Cease 2WP and 1BB
Not real sharp.
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Cease had rather poor command in high school, and then had TJ surgery. Probably normal to show poor command right now, but it is certainly going to be the thing he has to overcome to have a decent career. 98 MPH fastballs are sexy, but in and of themselves, are not enough.
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Anyone know where to get Rookie league stats? Cody is starting with the Peoria Mariners and they play in the same league as the Mesa Cubs. He doesn't think any of the games are streamed or twittered etc....
He is starting June 28 against the Dodgers and would love to be able to follow the game if possible.
Thanks
I take it your 2016 first round minor league draft pick been decided?
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Ray, you betcha. :)
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Schwarber: 0-4, 2 K, PB
Alcantara: 0-4, 3 K
Edwards: 2-0-0-0-1-3
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_23_omaaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_23_vphrok_vcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Mejia: 1-4, SB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_23_drxrok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
MWL all-star game:
Null: 1-1-0-0-0-3
Torres: 0-3, K
Burks: 0-1, RBI, BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_23_mdeafx_mdwafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
SL all-star game:
Vogelbach: 1-4, 3-run HR, BB, K
Batista: 1 IP, H, BB
Pena: 1 IP, K
Black: 2/3 IP, K
Franceson:1/3 IP, 2 BB, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_23_sosaax_sonaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Galindo: 1-3, 2B, 3 RBI, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_23_diarok_cubrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Happ: 2-3, 2B, BB, SB:
Alzolay: 2-2-1-0-0-4
Araujo: 3-1-0-0-0-4
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_23_boiasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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That was Happ's fifth game at NW League.
Schwarber was there five games last year and then moved up to KC.
Would think Happ about to move up.
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Carolina vs California all-star game which was started by former Cub farmhand Zack Godley.
Zagunis: 2-5, RBI, Assist, 2 K
Candelario: 2-4, 2B
Underwood: 1-1-1-1-1-0
Martinez: 1-1-0-0-0-1
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_23_craafa_caaafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Vogelbach's titanic all-star home run:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=192903083&sid=milb
Jeremy Null looking pretty impressive:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=193657783&sid=milb
Torres makes a nice play:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=193657683&sid=milb
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The guy that finished the Mesa game - Ovendo - isn't he somebody's former outfield prospect that they are converting into a pitcher? Supposed to be a very hard throwing left hander. He may not amount to much, but he certainly got off to a nice start.
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The guy that finished the Mesa game - Ovendo - isn't he somebody's former outfield prospect that they are converting into a pitcher? Supposed to be a very hard throwing left hander. He may not amount to much, but he certainly got off to a nice start.
From Arizona Phil's game report: "Last night also marked the game debut (as a pitcher) of 21-year old 6'4 LHP Ariel Ovando, who was signed by the Houston Astros as a 16-year old strong-armed slugging outfielder out of the Dominican Republic in 2010. Ovando received a $2.6M bonus when he signed (the largest signing bonus ever given to an IFA by the Astros up to that point in time) and was described by scouts who saw him back then as a young Darryl Strawberry. But Ovando struggled in four minor league seasons (2011-14) in the Houston organization, unable to advance past Lo-A while hitting just 233/299.335 in 261 games (1,026 PA). The Cubs selected Ovando in the AAA Phase of the December 2014 Rule 5 Draft with the intention of converting him to as pitcher, but he was shut-down during Minor League Camp and did not pitch at Extended Spring Training at all. He only began throwing bullpen sessions within the last couple of weeks. While he is a big dude with the "projectable" frame MLB clubs are always looking for, Ovando is the classic "soft-tossing lefty," mixing a mid-80's sinker with a slow curve. It worked well last night, though, as he worked a 1-2-3 9th with a 4-3 GO and two strikeouts (both swinging)".
Let's hope he can bump his velocity at least a little higher with more work in games and the bullpen.
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Galindo: 3-4, 2B, K, E
Matos: 3-run HR, 2 K, PB
C Rodriguez: 2-0-0-0-0-1; up from the VSL
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_24_angrok_cubrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Delarosa: 2-4, 3B, 4 RBI
Sands: 6-5-3-3-0-6
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_24_boiasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Peguero: 2-3, RBI, 2 BB, E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_24_dcurok_drxrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_24_vtirok_vcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Iowa rained out. The other three full-season squads still off.
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Argeullo (Cubs Den) was at the Arizona league game.
Enrique De Los Rio- high 80's 2 seam fastball
Carlos Rodriguez- fastball topped out at 87, has a nice curve.
Scott Frazier- 96-97. Topped out at 98. He barried one curve, but for the most part was throwing strikes.
Galindo- has good bat speed.
Andrew Monasterio- slick with the glove, 2 throwing errors. Used his speed to turn 2 singles into doubles.
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Schwarber: 2-5, 2B, 3B, RBI, K, GW-ing RBI double in 10th.
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_25_dcurok_drnrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Peguero: 2-5, SB, K
Mejia: 1-3, SF, RBI, BB, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_25_dcurok_drnrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_25_vcurok_vtirok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Torres: 2-4, 3B, CS
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_25_souafx_lcoafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Myrtle Beach:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_25_myrafa_cmcafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
McKinney: 3-4
Johnson: 3-2/3 -3-1-0-3-1, 2 HB
Black: 2-0-0-0-0-3
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_25_tenaax_mobaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Steele with 6K/0BB through 6, after going 9K/2BB in his debut. Strong start for him.
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Schwarber: 0-3, 2 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_25_omaaaa_iowaaa_2&t=g_box&sid=milb
Happ: 0-4, 2 K
Jimenez: 2-4, K
Steele: 6-3-0-0-0-6
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_25_boiasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Galindo: 2-3, 2B, 3B, BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_25_cubrok_angrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Here is a sortable board for IFA.
Cubs are tied to
Ademan, Perlaza. Martinez. Sierra, Amaya, Amarista, Perez, Diaz
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Link?
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http://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2015int&type=0&pos=all
Team-Focused Update
It now looks like the Cubs, Dodgers and Royals are the three teams going over their pools and entering into the penalty of two years with no signings over $300,000. The Dodgers are so recklessly signing whichever player they want for whatever number it takes that teams are openly wondering what top Cuban player they won’t sign during this period and agents are frothing at the mouth at the chance to put a top Cuban on the market in the next 12 months. I didn’t project Cuban CF Eddy Martinez to a team in the sortable board since his market isn’t clear, but every Cuban for the next year is most likely to sign with the Dodgers. A couple other teams, specifically the Cubs, could sign one of the higher-profile players this year since they’re going over their pool, but the Dodgers could still outbid Chicago if they want to.
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McKinney gets the #1 spot on BA's Hot Sheet, Zagunis on there as well.
1. Billy McKinney, rf, Cubs
3ds_cubs79Team: Double-A Tennessee (Southern)
Age: 20
Why He’s Here: .692/.688/1.077 (9-for-13), 5 R, 2 2B, 1 HR, 6 RBIs, 2 BB, 0 SO
The Scoop: As if Addison Russell wasn’t enough return from last summer’s Jeff Samardzija trade with the Athletics, McKinney has torn up the minors in his first full year with the Cubs. As the youngest player in the Southern League, he’s managed to hit .319 with 14 extra-base hits and just 16 strikeouts in 35 games. In 35 games at the level, McKinney has had just three games with more than one punchout.
17. Mark Zagunis, rf, Cubs
3ds_cubs79Team: high Class A Myrtle Beach (Carolina)
Age: 22.
Why He’s Here: .429/.500/.587 (6-for-14), 4 R, 2 HR, 3 RBIs, 2 BB, 1 SO, 2-for-2 SB
The Scoop: Zagunis’ combination of patience and pop has made him one of the breakout players of the Carolina League this year. He has posted a .431 on-base percentage in his young pro career after topping .400 in each of his three seasons at Virginia Tech. No, he doesn’t catch any more, but if he hits like this he has no problems profiling as an corner outfielder.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-hot-sheet-june-26-mckinney-claims-top-spot/
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Sure glad baseball has fixed all their problems with making the draft and free agent system equitable for the small and big players alike. Oh, wait...
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Underwood pulled in the sencond inning with no one out and 2 on.
I think the question with IFA this year is how far over $100 million the Dodgers go.
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Underwood gave up two runs in the first inning, and the first four batters in the second inning got on base. He was replaced, but all four scored.
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Schwarber: 0-3, BB, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_26_nozaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Myrtle Beach:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_26_myrafa_cmcafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Clifton: 6-4-0-0-1-4
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_26_souafx_lcoafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Peguero: 2-4, SB, BB, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_26_drnrok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_26_vtbrok_vcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Schwaber and CJ Edwards will play at the Futures game on July 12.
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Almora: 2-4, 3B, RBI, E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_26_tenaax_mobaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Happ: 2-3, BB, SB
De La Cruz: 6-4-0-0-1-4
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_26_triasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Just noticed Mark Malave is listed as a pitcher on the AZL Cubs roster...
Also just noticed...his middle name is Eckersley...
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Mark Zagunis hit by pitch twice Friday game. We know he's a high-walk guy of course, but Zagunis also has 14 career HBP in only 122 career games. This is a skill. Will add to his OBP, naturally. Crowd the plate, kid.
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Schwarber's winning double Thursday:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=198138583&sid=milb
And his triple:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=200323083&sid=milb
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De La Cruz: 6-4-0-0-1-4
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_26_triasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Boise has gotten some strong pitching early. Sands, Steele, DelaCruz, and Paulino have all had strong starts. Will be interesting to see how that continues as the summer rolls. They don't pitch very long/deep in XST, and I'm sure they're adrenaline-pumped to be pitching real pro games with some fans now. So who knows whether they'll be able to sustain when they're pitching every five days and they start to need to pitch with every-fifth-day arm fatigue. Also true that lineups often get much more challenging. First week lineups are heavily dominated by Latin roster-fillers, or by late-round organizational draftees from years past. But as several college picks sign, then get oriented, and then settle in and start to get back in a groove, lineups get tougher. For the Cubs, a year ago I don't think Boise would have had Zagunis yet, and maybe cats like Chesny Young were just getting moved over. This year, Dewees isn't there yet, Happ is perhaps settling in, Rose just debuted yesterday but he might not be totally grooved in yet.
So will be fun to see how the pitchers hold up. De La Cruz is supposed to be reasonably fast, correct?
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Cubs Den has him low to mid 90's from the Arizona League
Steele, Sands are low 90's
Paulino is 92-94.
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Almora: 2-4, 3B, RBI,
Almora's OBP is up to .634 now, so he's progressing. OBP back up over .291, and that vaults his slugging up over .340. I'm still hoping he might sustain a hot streak at some point and finish the year on the over side of .250/.300/.350/.650.
Earlier I was concerns about too many groundouts. That's not an issue overall. He's an even 1.0 on GO/AO ratio. I'm guessing the line-drive ratio may not be that high? Where do you find that kind of info?
His BABIP remains very low, close to the .267 he was last year at Tennessee. If he was .300, that might add 20-30 points to each of his average, OBP, and slugging, and perhaps he'd be up nearer .700 OPS.
Will be interesting to see where his career goes. Fringe big-leaguer? Journeyman high-minors guy? Japan? Fargo RedHawks?
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Austin Kirk has been a little overmatched in the Northern League. He's got a 2.1 WHIP and an 8.4 ERA for the Fargo-Moorhead Redhawks.
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Cubs Den has him low to mid 90's from the Arizona League
Steele, Sands are low 90's
Paulino is 92-94.
Thanks.
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Mark Zagunis hit by pitch twice Friday game. We know he's a high-walk guy of course, but Zagunis also has 14 career HBP in only 122 career games. This is a skill. Will add to his OBP, naturally. Crowd the plate, kid.
Thanks, reb. Interesting. Having a .442 OBP is pretty amazing. Having an IsoD of over .120 is pretty unusual.
I wonder if that HBP part isn't a real skill not only in itself, but reflective of other tools?
"Crowd the plate, kid." As much sense as crowding the plate and covering the outside half makes, presumably a lot of guys don't/can't do that because then they can't cover the inside of the plate. Having the bat speed and swing balance/mechanics to handle inside stuff even while crowding the plate reflects some not-so-common hitting tools/gifts. I've hardly seen any Zagunis videos, since he doesn't hit HR's and most videos are HR's. But in the one or two I recall, he very much looked like he had a very quick bat, perhaps very well suited to handling inside stuff.
So, perhaps the HBP is a nice added-value skill, but available because it's simply a manifestation of more important gifts that he has as a hitter?
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Minor League Central has batted ball data for AA/AAA. It is very unreliable.
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Zastrynzy is starting tonight for the Smokies. Medina was sent to Iowa for Roach, no 40 man move was made yet.
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Zastrynzy is starting tonight for the Smokies. Medina was sent to Iowa for Roach, no 40 man move was made yet.
This suggests that Carl ( formerly C.J.) Edwards might be called up to replace Roach (unless Ramirez is ready).
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I think that ArizonaPhil is right that the most likely move is to put Lastella on the 60 day DL. It would free up a spot on the 40 man roster, and would not affect when Lastella could return. He has already been on the 15 man DL for more than 60 days, and all of that counts.
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Maples promoted to South Bend.
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Schwarber with his first AAA home run. He also had two other hits, but one of them was a lousy single.
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Dewees starting in RF for Eugene. Happ stays in CF.
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Dewees starting in RF for Eugene. Happ stays in CF.
Hey, get that 20 arm in RF!
Recall seeing Hank Aaron, of all people, throw in early 1970s and he had a 20 arm in his late 30s age pushing 40. Played mostly LF but some RF (and mostly 1B one year) but his arm died. Unless it's Hank Aaron, gotta put a rag arm OFer in LF.
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Schwarber: 3-4, 2B, HR, RBI, K
Edwards: 2-1-1-1-1-2
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_27_nozaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 2-5, RBI, PO/CS
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_27_souafx_lcoafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Zagunis: 0-2, 2 BB
Tseng: 5-6-3-3-1-2
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_27_myrafa_cmcafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Peguero: 1-2, 2 BB, K
Mejia: 1-2, RBI, BB, 3 E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_27_dbrrok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_27_vcurok_vtbrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Tenn rained out.
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Yeiler Peguero (DSL) is trying to join the long line of SS prospects in the Cubs' system: .352/.472/.477/.949, 19 BB vs. 12 K's, 9 SB, 0 CS, 3 2B, 4 3B, 0 HR.
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Candidate for the best name in MILB: Raysheandall Juliandru Vernon Michel - DSL Braves. He's from Curacao, where parents apparently receive substantial payments from the government for each character in their children's names.
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Candidate for the best name in MILB: Raysheandall Juliandru Vernon Michel - DSL Braves. He's from Curacao, where parents apparently receive substantial payments from the government for each character in their children's names.
Calvin Coolidge Julius Caesar Tuskahoma McLish
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mclisca01.shtml
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Dewees: 2 BB
Jimenez: 3-3, RBI, BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_27_triasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Galindo: 2-2, SF, RBI, BB, E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_27_cubrok_giarok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Schwarber's long homer off a lefty:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=204817583&sid=milb
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Null and Gardner promoted to Mrytle Beach.
Skulina, Underwood and Dunston to the DL.
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That is not good news.
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Duane Underwood @dlunderwood94 31m31 minutes ago
God doesn't put you in any situation you can't handle. Just another obstacle to overcome love everyone for the support I've gotten #family
That sounds less than encouraging.
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Torres: 2-3, HR, 2 RBI, BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_28_souafx_lcoafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Schwarber: 1-3, BB, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_28_nozaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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At least Underwood has a positive outlook on things.
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Obviously speculation, but TJ surgery could be coming.
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Zastrynzy started out horrible in his start. Walk, walk, 3 run home run. After that though he pitched pretty well.
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Jim Callis on Edwards and Schwarber:
http://m.mlb.com/chc/video/topic/52578840/v197835683/callis-analyzes-cubs-prospects-edwards-schwarber/?c_id=chc
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Dewees and Jimenez flip-flop positions tonight. Dewees in LF, Jimenez in RF.
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Duane Underwood @dlunderwood94 31m31 minutes ago
God doesn't put you in any situation you can't handle. Just another obstacle to overcome love everyone for the support I've gotten #family
What is most troubling about that to me is that he appears to believe a) that there is a god who is responsible for all situations in which a person might find himself, and b) that all situations are ones which allow for a positive outcome.
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If that bothers you most, you're not much of a Cubs fan...
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If you respond to him Dave it just encourages him.
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If that bothers you most, you're not much of a Cubs fan...
No, Dave23, at the moment we don't know what situation he might be referencing. If it were the loss of a leg, or his eyesight, or a diagnosis of terminal cancer, then I would agree with you. But at the moment we don't know whether he is talking about a career threatening problem or a case of diahrea. And if he is referencing some physical ailment which is reasonably often overcome, then it is not a case of great concern. But the mindset which appears to run thru that comment is something less likely to be overcome during the time when he is in a Cub uniform.
I hope he is still, and remains, healthy, that he continues to progress and has a long and productive career for the Cubs. The mindset I mention is one which I believe makes it less likely for him to have a long and productive career for the Cubs than Tommy John surgery would.
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McKinney: 1-3, 2B, BB, K
Almora: 1-3, 2B, RBI, BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_28_tenaax_mobaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Vogelbach: 1-2, HR, 2 RBI, BB, 1st HR since May 11, 2nd since April 25.
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_28_tenaax_mobaax_2&t=g_box&sid=milb
Myrtle Beach:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_28_myrafa_wswafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Happ: 1-3, HR, RBI, BB, K
Dewees: 1-5, 2 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_28_triasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Cease: 2-0-0-0-0-2
C Rodriguez: 3-2/3 -9-10-10-1-4
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_28_giarok_cubrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Wow, interesting to see Cease with a no-wild-thing outing. Based on Az Phil's reports from XST, he's never before come close to going 6-straight hitters without walking or hitting somebody. Hopefully the first of many more such non-wild games.
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Arguella thought it was the best he had looked. Easy velocity and he was using his curve.
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Soler: 0-3, RBI, K
Schwarber: 0-2, E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_29_nozaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Dewees: 2-5, 2B, K
Happ: 1-3, 2 BB (IBB), K, SB
Alzolay: 2-3-0-0-1-4
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_29_triasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_29_vcurok_vtirok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Torres: 1-3, BB
Maples: 1-2-1-1-0-0
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_29_lanafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
DSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_29_dcurok_dbrrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
MB:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_29_myrafa_wswafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
McKinney: 2-4
Black: 2-2-2-2-1-4
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_29_tenaax_mobaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Galindo: 2B, 2 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_29_cubrok_mrnrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Watched the Arz Cubs play the Arz Mariners tonight. Norwood started for the Cubs and threw 1 inning was 92-93 but wasn't locating very well as the Mariners got 2 runs off him with 3 hits? Norwood threw only one inning and I suspect his pitch count limited him as I would guess he was around 30 for the 1 inning. Camargo came in and was sitting 86-88 with some decent off speed(CB,CU). Gave up a few hits no runs in his first 4 innings and then the Mariners put 2-3 hits together in the 6th to go up 3-0. Hitting wise no one really stood out for the Cubs but there appeared to be some speed guys in the lineup with a lot of close ground outs when I was there. Mariners have some pretty good pitching and they threw their 2nd round pick Nick Niedert for 3 innings and I think he gave up 1 hit. He sits 91-93 with really good FB command. Also has a + change up along with an average CB. I left after 6 since I have a 3:00 am wake up to go back home. Cody had a very successful debut against the Dodgers at Camelback Ranch on Saturday. His line was
2-0-0-1-3. He was throwing 92-94 and his CB was outstanding. FB command needs to be better. He has a good slider and change up and when he starts throwing more innings he will utilize those pitches more. They are being very cautious with the High school guys and are slowly stretching them out since they have not thrown since there HS season ended several weeks ago. Sorry had to slip that in there as I am a pretty proud Papa.
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FYI Norwood had a pretty good breaking ball and CU but had trouble locating both
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Keep us updated on your boy Chi.
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Duane Underwood @dlunderwood94 12m12 minutes ago
Just landed in chi town for this mri! Boi I ain't never been so nervous in my life haha
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Torres: 2-5, 2B, K, E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_30_lanafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Zagunis: 1-3, 2B, RBI, BB, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_30_myrafa_wswafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
DSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_30_dcurok_dtirok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_30_vtirok_vcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Tenn off.
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Happ and Dewees both named 1st team All Americans by Perfect Game today...
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Eloy Jiminez with his first HR tonight. Eugene continues to get strong rotation pitching.
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Schwarber: 1-4, 2B, RBI, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_30_rreaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Dewees: 3-5, 3 2B, 4 RBI, SB
Jimenez: 2-4, HR, RBI, BB, K, SB
Sands: 5-3-1-0-0-4
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_30_triasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Galindo left after the 3rd.
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_06_30_mrnrok_cubrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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McDaniel updated the Cubs signings. They are going to sign a Twainiese pitcher for $1.2 million. He tops out at 92. They will also sign a South Korean 1B/LF for $600,000. He also tied them to a dominant lefty that is tall and skinny for $600,000.
On the fangraphs podcast he stated there is a team going over that already has a deal in place next year for a million dollar kid where the team in question is signing multiple $300,000 kids from the same trainer. He also expects the Dodgers will sign half of the remaining Cubans, so the Cubs might have a chance at some of them.
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Talking about Zagunis the other day and Craig wondered if his HBP numbers might be reflective of other skills he might have as a hitter?
Hard to say, I think. Typically, the mlb leaders in HBP are a mixed bag of very good and pretty decent hitters. HBP leaders in NL in 2015 so far are Rizzo, Duda, Charlie Blackmon, McCutcheon. Jon Jay is always near the top. Of course, Biggio was Babe Ruth of HBP, a HOFer. Jon Jay? Not a HOFer. Utley is big-time HBP guy. Carlos Quentin--big time HBP guy. Not a HOFer. Remember the big brawl Quentin started a few years ago. Why? Getting hit is what he does/did.
Biggio said recently that when occasion warranted--he just did not move to get away from pitch that would hit (not kill) him. Pretty simple formula: just don't move (technically a hitter has to evade if he can, but never called). Biggio stood close to plate but didn't really crowd plate like Rizzo does.
By the way...amazing stat. Mark Lemke: 3,664 career MLB plate appearances. Never hit by a pitch. Not once.
As to Zagunis--now has 571 career PAs, with 93 walks and 16 HBP. 93 walks and 83 Ks. .300 hitter. Can he keep this up at higher levels? Has decent .143 iso power but not a lot of homers. Will be interesting to see how he progresses going forward. A guy to watch.
For anyone interested in HBP issues and stats, link below is a truly insane website all about getting hit by pitches.
http://www.plunkeveryone.com/
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Underwood MRI didn't show a UCL tear and the Cubs think he will be back this year.
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Underwood MRI didn't show a UCL tear and the Cubs think he will be back this year.
Prayer.
Or perhaps simply his god not wanting to give Underwood more than he could deal with.
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Why mock him for a belief in God? I don't see anyone mocking you for your lack of belief.
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Because he's the equivalent of a shock dj.
He's just trying to get a reaction.
I bet if everyone ignored him he'd leave and never come back.
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Why mock him for a belief in God? I don't see anyone mocking you for your lack of belief.
I'm not mocking him. I am simply following what he posted in his tweet. Additionally you need to distinguish between believing in a god and believing what he tweeted, which amounted to saying that no one is ever presented with a greater difficulty than they can handle.
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No counselor, you are not following what he said, you are mocking him. There is no need for it.
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No counselor, you are not following what he said, you are mocking him. There is no need for it.
If pointing out what he said is mocking him then I would agree. Can you find anything in my post which is not perfectly in line with his tweet? My post earlier today in no way attempted to characterize his post or to suggest that it was foolish or simple-minded. It simply followed what he wrote.
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So you honestly believe that it might be simply his god not wanting to give Underwood more than he could deal with? Or were you being sarcastic?
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Jes dont believe in God as he's stated many times so you know the answer.
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If he was not mocking, then he must be open to the possibility that God exists.
Of course, there is the tiny chance that he was being sarcastic and doesn't want to admit it now.
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So you honestly believe that it might be simply his god not wanting to give Underwood more than he could deal with? Or were you being sarcastic?
Neither.
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If he was not mocking, then he must be open to the possibility that God exists.
Of course, there is the tiny chance that he was being sarcastic and doesn't want to admit it now.
I was offering Underwood's explanation for him. No sarcasm involved.
Sarcasm | Definition of sarcasm by Merriam-Webster
www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/sarcasm
Merriam‑Webster
Full Definition of SARCASM. 1. : a sharp and often satirical or ironic utterance designed to cut or give pain. 2. a : a mode of satirical wit depending for its effect on bitter, caustic, and often ironic language that is usually directed against an individual.
Whatever I posted here certainly was not going to give Underwood any pain, and I wouldn't consider it to have involved any wit, nor was it directed "against" Underwood or any other individual.
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Merriam-Webster
the use of words that mean the opposite of what you really want to say especially in order to insult someone, to show irritation, or to be funny.
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Kiley McDaniel's updated July 2 for the Cubs
19) Aramis Ademan SS 5-10 150 L/R $2,000,000
22.) Yonathan Perlaza SS 5-8 175 S/R $1,200,000
26.) Christopher Martinez 3B 5-11 180 R/R $1,500,000
31.) Jonathan Sierra RF 6-3 205 L/L $1,200,000
32.) Miguel Amaya C 6-0 165 L/R $1,200,000
34.) Wen Hua Sung RHP 6-1 220 R/R $1,250,000
39.) Vinicio Martinez RF 6-0 170 R/R $700,000
41.) Anderson Amarista RHP 6-0 180 R/R $1,200,000
42.) Luis Diaz 2B 5-9 155 R/R $350,000
45.) Yunior Perez RHP 6-3 175 R/R $650,000
Gwang Min Kwon 1B/LF 6-1 220 R/R $600,000
Braiyln Marquez LHP 6-3 175 L/L $600,000
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They're not getting Martinez, are they?
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10 of McDaniel's top 45 would be a nice haul, plus some other high-bonus guys too.
McDaniel says he lists a probable signing club when probability is better than 50% for that club---so things can change.
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He's still predicting Martinez to the Dodgers, but that is more the Dodgers are going to spend money than anything. Lucius Fox seems to be headed to Giants for $6.5 million, he was predicted to the Dodgers until today.
Diaz might be a more interesting OF, he's 18 from Cuba.
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Schwarber: 3-4, 2B, RBI, K, PB
Edwards: 2-2-1-1-1-3
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_01_rreaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 3-5, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_01_lanafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Zagunis: 2-3, RBI, BB, K, CS, E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_01_salafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Smokies rained out.
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_01_vcurok_vtbrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
DSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_01_dtirok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Zagunis: 2-3, RBI, BB, K, CS, E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_01_salafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Hey, what about the HBP. Another one tonight. ;D
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I don't fell so bad about Schwarber with Tyler Alamo in the system. He's committed 3 passed balls tonight and 7 in 9 games.
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Eloy with another HR. 3/3 thus far. He's got 9K in around 55 AB or so; fairly modest K-rate thus far for an 18-year-old. Curious.
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I don't fell so bad about Schwarber with Tyler Alamo in the system. He's committed 3 passed balls tonight and 7 in 9 games.
Yeah, good chance he's going to be forgettable.
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:-\
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Schwarber's Wednesday double.
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=216738083&sid=milb
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Jimenez: 3-4, HR, RBI, CS
Steele: 6-4-2-1-2-6
http://bbf.createaforum.com/index.php?action=post;topic=208.2325;last_msg=230337
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BA comments from today:
Dominican outfielder Jonathan Sierra jumps out physically for his tall, high-waisted frame at 6-foot-3, 205 pounds. He’s a lefty with a quick swing and has slashed average raw power that should continue to grow. He has more raw power than fellow lefthanded Dominican outfielder Juan Soto, but the widespread concern with Sierra was his ability to make contact. He has a hitch in his swing and did hit well against live pitching for some teams last summer in brief looks, but several teams felt he would need a lot of time for his bat and pitch recognition to catch up. At the MLB international showcase in February, he went 0-for-7 with two walks and two strikeouts. Sierra is a solid athlete for his size, but he fits best in an outfield corner. The Cubs are in heavy on Sierra, which should push his bonus into seven-figure territory.
Dominican lefthander Brailyn Marquez has a projectable body (6-foot-3, 175 pounds) to add to his fastball, which already reaches 91 mph. His changeup is advanced for his age and is already ahead of his curveball. He threw strikes and had success at the MLB international showcase in February, with two strikeouts and no walks in 2 2/3 scoreless innings. The Cubs are the favorites to sign Marquez.
Another Dominican pitcher linked to the Cubs is righthander Yunior Perez, who also has a projectable frame at 6-foot-3, 175 pounds. Perez earned praise for his physical projection, loose arm and a fastball that’s touched the low-90s and some think could be in the mid-90s in the future, although when he went to MLB’s International Prospect Series in March he didn’t have his usual velocity. He shows feel to spin a breaking ball that could develop into an average pitch.
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Marquez looks and sounds really interesting.
Sierra signed for $2.5 million. The rest of the bonuses have been close/exact to what McDaniel said.
Martinez won't sign today, he is weighing his options. Dodgers have already spent more than $40 million.
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Counselor????? Really???? No way is he a counselor
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Not anymore anyway but we're not supposed to talk about that.
But if he can hate on Jesus...
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Merriam-Webster
the use of words that mean the opposite of what you really want to say especially in order to insult someone, to show irritation, or to be funny.
Except that nothing I posted was the opposite of what I meant, insulted no one, showed no irritation and was not meant to be funny. Other than that, yeah, I would agree with you. (Now, just to help you out, that last sentence IS intended to be sarcastic.)
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I have to say that your latest argument is just as compelling as most of them.
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I have to say that your latest argument is just as compelling as most of them.
Sarcasm?
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Anderson Amarista, one of the pitchers tied to the Cubs, isn't signing today.
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Anderson Amarista, one of the pitchers tied to the Cubs, isn't signing today.
How come these guys don't get do the "hat dance" like the football players coming out of high school?
MLB Network could kill a few hours of programming and we could all get a few laughs at Harold Reynolds' expense as he tries to compare the kids to current players.
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http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/31990/cubs-notes-cubs-players-meet-with-torre
Duane Underwood: The news on Class A pitcher Duane Underwood is positive after the former second round pick of 2012 underwent an MRI on his right elbow. It found no structural damage and the pitcher will rest and then resume throwing. Underwood is the Cubs' top pitching prospect, according to ESPN.com's prospect guru Keith Law. He was 6-3 with a 2.66 ERA in 12 starts this season for Class A Myrtle Beach.
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Eloy looks pretty smooth:
http://www.bleachernation.com/2015/07/02/the-cubs-next-big-offensive-prospect-eloy-jimenez-rockets-a-homer-video/
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Almora: 1-4, HR, RBI, K
Johnson: 5-6-1-1-2-5
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_02_monaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
MB rained out after a few innings.
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_02_vtbrok_vcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Pierce Johnson 93 pitches
Good sign if he can bounce back ok.
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South Bend:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_02_bgrafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Schwarber: 1-4, 3 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_02_rreaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Trey McNutt sighting. .2 innings and he only gave up 2 runs. Still time to make up for the loss of Archer.
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Is Soler playing?
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Cubs have signed Kwon Kang-min from South Korea for $1.2 million.
I'm stuck in a car on the way to Michigan and looked at the story from a Korean newspaper. It looks like from the numbers, he is a position player and might have hit .339 at some point.
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Blue, is there a listing somewhere of all of the signings, and perhaps their dollar amounts? I haven't been sure about actual signings versus rumors and projected/expected signings going in?
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I'm following Badler and Sanchez on Twitter, BA might have it for the top 30.
My Twitter app needs help with translating Korean. Bottom part of the tweet translated to "players unite to deposit 120 million, not 60 million. Best beast since Sin-soo Choo.
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The Cubs signed three of BA's top 22:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/top-30-international-prospects-signed-2/
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According to PSD, Javy posted a video of him hitting off a tee to Instagram.
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Happ: 2-3, HR, RBI, 2 BB, go-ahead homer in 10th
Jimenez: 0-5, 3 K
De La Cruz: 6-4-1-1-0-9
Berg: 2-0-0-0-0-2
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_02_eugasx_hilasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
The Emeralds' staff leads the NWL in K's (159) and fewest walks allowed (33), a nearly 5-1 K/BB ratio as a unit.
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@robneyer
Just saw #Cubs first-round pick Ian Happ hit a 440-foot line drive over the batter's eye in the 11th.
https://twitter.com/robneyer/statuses/616829331835330560
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Mejia: 1-3, 2 BB, K, 2 E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_02_dbwrok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Galindo: 2-3, 2B, 3B, 2 RBI
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_02_athrok_cubrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Cubs have signed Kwon Kang-min from South Korea for $1.2 million.
I'm stuck in a car on the way to Michigan and looked at the story from a Korean newspaper. It looks like from the numbers, he is a position player and might have hit .339 at some point.
Think this might be the guy McDaniel lists as Gwang Min Kwon? Big 1B, listed there as probable to Cubs. His mother will know.
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Maybe? The bonus is higher, but the translation maybe bad as well. McDaniel doesn't seem to have great contacts in the Far East.
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I'm keeeping my fingers crossed the Cubs somehow get Eddy Julio Martinez rated as the too IFA by most lists. He was supposed to sign with the Dodgers but has now sais he is weighing some options. 20 year old Cuban CFer with comparissons to Andruw Jones. Maybe the Cubs will pay him and convince him he could be playing with Soler soon.
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Cubs are getting close to sending Happ to South Bend. Of course I'm going to miss the South Bend Cubs in Western Michigan by about a week.
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I'm keeeping my fingers crossed the Cubs somehow get Eddy Julio Martinez rated as the too IFA by most lists. He was supposed to sign with the Dodgers but has now sais he is weighing some options. 20 year old Cuban CFer with comparissons to Andruw Jones. Maybe the Cubs will pay him and convince him he could be playing with Soler soon.
Seems like there's a chance. Dodgers or Cubs?
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Cubs are getting close to sending Happ to South Bend. Of course I'm going to miss the South Bend Cubs in Western Michigan by about a week.
South Bend already has four OF performing well (Burks, Crawford, Balaguert and Encarnacion) while Myrtle Beach only has Zagunis. I'm thinking Happ and Dewees go straight to Myrtle Beach. Later, Zagunis goes to Tennessee, Encarnacion to Myrtle Beach and Jimenez to South Bend.
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Think Cubs will work the lesser guys around Happ, not worry about the lesser guys in deciding Happ's progression.
So, Happ will go where best for him.
Bryant skipped slow-A; Schwarber played slow-A for about a month. So, will be interesting to see Happ's progession. Dewees too.
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Eugene scheduled to face ex-Cub Jeferson Mejia tonight. Mejia demoted from Midwest League to short-season. Has 36 walks in 41 IP for season overall.
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Kiley McDaniel's updated July 2 for the Cubs
19) Aramis Ademan SS 5-10 150 L/R $2,000,000
22.) Yonathan Perlaza SS 5-8 175 S/R $1,200,000
26.) Christopher Martinez 3B 5-11 180 R/R $1,500,000
31.) Jonathan Sierra RF 6-3 205 L/L $1,200,000
32.) Miguel Amaya C 6-0 165 L/R $1,200,000
34.) Wen Hua Sung RHP 6-1 220 R/R $1,250,000
39.) Vinicio Martinez RF 6-0 170 R/R $700,000
41.) Anderson Amarista RHP 6-0 180 R/R $1,200,000
42.) Luis Diaz 2B 5-9 155 R/R $350,000
45.) Yunior Perez RHP 6-3 175 R/R $650,000
Gwang Min Kwon 1B/LF 6-1 220 R/R $600,000
Braiyln Marquez LHP 6-3 175 L/L $600,000
These were all projections, correct? >50% likelihood projections?
So, the actual reports have been:
19) Aramis Ademan SS 5-10 150 L/R $2,000,000
22.) Yonathan Perlaza SS 5-8 175 S/R $1,200,000
26.) Christopher Martinez 3B 5-11 180 R/R $1,500,000 Maybe actually $1.0 instead of $1.5?
31.) Jonathan Sierra RF 6-3 205 L/L $1,200,000 Reportedly $2.5 instead of $1.2?
32.) Miguel Amaya C 6-0 165 L/R $1,200,000
45.) Yunior Perez RHP 6-3 175 R/R $650,000
Gwang Min Kwon 1B/LF 6-1 220 R/R $600,000 Reportedl $1.2 instead of $0.6?
And the following have not officially signed with us, to our knowledge? Maybe they actually have and it's not been publicized? Maybe they're still thinking? And maybe they ended up signing with somebody else?
34.) Wen Hua Sung RHP 6-1 220 R/R $1,250,000
39.) Vinicio Martinez RF 6-0 170 R/R $700,000
41.) Anderson Amarista RHP 6-0 180 R/R $1,200,000
42.) Luis Diaz 2B 5-9 155 R/R $350,000
Braiyln Marquez LHP 6-3 175 L/L $600,000
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Cubs just traded for IFA slots, so I'm not sure what is going on, but I think that is correct.
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I believe it reduced the fine for going over the allotment.
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CHICAGO - The Chicago Cubs today acquired minor league left-handed pitching prospect Manny Rondon and international slot number four from the Los Angeles Angels for catcher Rafael Lopez.
Lopez, 27, was designated for assignment on June 27. He batted .276 (43-for-156) with eight doubles, one triple, no home runs and 17 RBI in 46 games with Iowa this season. Lopez made his big league debut with the Cubs last year and hit .182 (2-for-11) in seven games.
Rondon, 20, has gone 3-7 with a 2.94 ERA (38 ER/116.1 IP) in 36 appearances (18 starts) covering three pro seasons in the Angels organization. He was a 2014 Dominican Summer League All Star when he went 0-5 with a 2.30 ERA (17 ER/66.2 IP) in 14 starts. The 2015 season marks Rondon's first in the United States, and he made just two starts with the Angels' rookie league club in Arizona prior to today's trade.
The lefthander is a native of Puerto Cabello, Carabobo, Venezuela and signed with the Angels as an undrafted free agent in 2012.
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Rondon.
http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=642396#/career/R/pitching/2015/ALL
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I believe it reduced the fine for going over the allotment.
It does, but once the signings are "official" and the Cubs go over they can't trade for any slots.
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Dear lord, Almora's now apparently going by his given first name of Reinaldo.
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Almora: 2-5, 2 2B, RBI, K, E
McKinney: 2-5, RBI, GW-ing 1B in 9th
Contreras: 2-3, 2B, 3B, RBI, 2 BB
Black: 2-2-1-1-0-3, HR, BS
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_03_monaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Zagunis: 1-3, RBI, BB, Assist
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_02_salafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 2-4, 2 2B, RBI, BB, E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_03_bgrafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
DSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_03_dcurok_dbwrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_03_vphrok_vcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Dear lord, Almora's now apparently going by his given first name of Reinaldo.
Maybe Reinaldo can hit.
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Tseng: 5-3-0-0-3-6
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_03_salafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Soler: 1-3, 2 BB
Schwarber: 4-4, 2B, 3 RBI, BB, E, PB (3) 10th PB in 46 games
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_03_rreaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Maybe Reinaldo can hit.
Reinaldo is currently hitting .400, while Albert was in the .240's.
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Galindo: 3-5, 2 RBI
Malave: 2-0-0-0-1-5
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_03_cubrok_athrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Happ: 0-3, 2 BB, 2 K, SB
Jimenez: 1-2, left early
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_03_eugasx_hilasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Schwarber's 2-run double:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=227471883&sid=milb
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Reinaldo is currently hitting .400, while Albert was in the .240's.
Sounds like a great trade.
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Boise faced Jeferson Mejia, the 20-almost-21-year-old IFA we signed two years ago and traded for Montero. Good prospect, they skipped him straight up to full-A to open the season. control has been something of a challenge this first year; 41BB/31K/46IP thus far. Will be interesting to see where his career goes as time goes by.
http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=646301#/career/R/pitching/2015/ALL
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Schwarber: 0-3, BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_04_iowaaa_nozaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_04_vcurok_vphrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Tenn:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_04_tenaax_biraax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Cease: 3-0-1-1-1-3
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_04_clerok_cubrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
South Bend:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_04_souafx_bgrafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Candelario: 4-6, 2B, 3B, 3 RBI, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_04_myrafa_cmcafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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ick J. Faleris @NickJFaleris 6h6 hours ago
It's going to be fun when Sands/Cease/Steele hit full-season ball and the world realizes how badly the #Cubs murdered the #MLBDraft in 2014.
Nick J. Faleris @NickJFaleris 6h6 hours ago
How often do your first six picks become MLB contributors? (though still firmly/vocally in Stinnett-as-reliever camp). #Cubs 2014 #MLBDraft
Nick J. Faleris @NickJFaleris 6h6 hours ago
Nick J. Faleris retweeted Tanner Shurtz
Crushed their early picks, for sure, but also had lots of extra picks. Cubs went six rounds deep w/savvy picks. Nick J. Faleris added,
Tanner Shurtz @Tanner_Shurtz
@NickJFaleris Angels 2009 draft came pretty close
Nick J. Faleris @NickJFaleris 6h6 hours ago
There is literally no one in the sport the #Cubs could not trade for without moving an MLB piece. Maybe five orgs that can say that? Four?
Faleris is one of the BP prospect guys.
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John Arguello @CubsDen 6m6 minutes ago
Cease was great again tonight. Using more and more of his pitches. First chance to see new Cubs acquisition LHP Manuel Rondon 90-92, CB, CH
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Nice to have back-to-back controlled outings for Cease. Big arm wild is not so great. But big arm with strikes is a pretty interesting. Cease walked the first guy, gave up a couple of stolen bases and the run scored on a throwing error to 3rd. Got the next 9 guys out.
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Cease reported to have hit 100 tonight
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Bill Mitchell was at the Mesa game.
Couldn't get gun readings before leaving for another game, but it was certainly premium velo. Saw him 98-99 in extended.
https://twitter.com/billazbbphotog/status/617511307743379456
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Jimenez: DNP
Happ: 2 BB, 3 K 17 BB, 18 K's in 16 Games
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_04_vanasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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DSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_04_dcurok_dmlrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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So the ex Vandy commit that had TJS Cease is the best minor league pitcher we got?
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I havent heard of any of our others doing that.
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Justin Steele doesn't light up the gun like Cease, but he's a really good pitcher...with a long way to go just like Cease.
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Cease has the fastest fastball. That does not make him our best pitching prospect.
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Cubs signed Ben Rowan as a minor league free agent after he opted out of his minor league deal in Baltimore. Sidearmer/ground ball machine.
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McKinney: 1-3, 2B, RBI, BB, Assist
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_05_tenaax_biraax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Schwarber: 1-2, BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_05_iowaaa_nozaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
South Bend:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_05_souafx_bgrafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Zagunis: 2B, 3 RBI, BB
Torrez: 7-3-0-0-0-6, Last 3 starts: 19 IP, 14 H, 2 BB, 17 K, 2 R
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_05_myrafa_cmcafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Happ: DNP
Dewees: 2-4, 2B, RBI, BB, CS
Alzolay: 4-0-0-0-1-4
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_05_vanasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Jimenez with a hamstring injury so he will be out for a few games.
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Three very good games in row for Daury Torrez.
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Baseball Prospectus has their midseason top 50 prospects out today. Two Cubs made the list: Schwarber at #8 (up from #77 before the season) and Torres is #50 (not rated before the season).
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=26850
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Schwarber has K'd each of his 3 AB thus far today. At the moment, he's got:
*16/1 K/HR ratio at Iowa.
*Exact 33% K/AB ratio. (16K/48AB/5 walks)
*BABIP .484.
His batting average and slash numbers are all good because his BABIP is great (he went on a streak where when he didn't strike out, like 8 out of 9 balls-in-play went for hits.)
It's all small-sample. I don't imagine the 16:1 K/HR rate is any more likely to be his long-term PCL ratio than is his .484 BABIP.
But I think there is real reason to question whether calling him up would really help the Cubs all that much this year. Reb, you're ready to put him at cleanup and play him in left field with Coghlan in center, because you want Schwarber's bat so much. I'm just wondering whether, should we do so, whether Schwarber's bat might not really sustain all that much better as a rookie than has been true for Soler and Russell.
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Schwarber has K'd each of his 3 AB thus far today. At the moment, he's got:
*16/1 K/HR ratio at Iowa.
*Exact 33% K/AB ratio. (16K/48AB/5 walks)
*BABIP .484.
His batting average and slash numbers are all good because his BABIP is great (he went on a streak where when he didn't strike out, like 8 out of 9 balls-in-play went for hits.)
It's all small-sample. I don't imagine the 16:1 K/HR rate is any more likely to be his long-term PCL ratio than is his .484 BABIP.
But I think there is real reason to question whether calling him up would really help the Cubs all that much this year. Reb, you're ready to put him at cleanup and play him in left field with Coghlan in center, because you want Schwarber's bat so much. I'm just wondering whether, should we do so, whether Schwarber's bat might not really sustain all that much better as a rookie than has been true for Soler and Russell.
Yeah, Schwarber is striking out more in small sample size than he did in lower minors.
But, his K rate about same as Bryant at Iowa. And, high K rate in brief Cubs stint yet OPSed at .982.
Schwarber OPS over .900 at Iowa. Seems pretty good to me.
As to Cubs and clean-up slot, Cubs rank #12 in NL OPS at clean-up at .714 OPS. Happy with that? NL average at
#4 is .782. Needs improvement.
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Yeah, if Schwarber can BABIP at .480 for the long haul, he can be fine with 16:1 K/HR rates. Not confident he'll sustain that, but no harm in hoping.
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Yeah, if Schwarber can BABIP at .480 for the long haul, he can be fine with 16:1 K/HR rates. Not confident he'll sustain that, but no harm in hoping.
That post(s) is good example(s) why most folks don't dissect really small sample size.
BABIP? If he grounds out twice, it goes down by, what, 50 points? Silly stuff.
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Cubs 26th rounder starting in game 2 at Iowa.
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The Cubs' 26th rounder was Jared Padgett who allegedly wasn't going to sign.
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That post(s) is good example(s) why most folks don't dissect really small sample size.
BABIP? If he grounds out twice, it goes down by, what, 50 points? Silly stuff.
You were the one referencing his over .900 OPS, which is sillily built on the BABIP, and will likewise drop by the same 50 points. :) I know, it's all small sample. I'm just cautious that when a guy K's so much in the minors and majors, he might not necessarily do that well in the majors when the pitchers are using scouting reports.
AA pitchers are working on their own stuff, and don't have a lot of scouting reports even if they wanted to focus on using them. But in majors, the scouting is extensive and pitchers are pitching solely for outs, not to work on their quota of off speed pitches. I think that there's a fair chance that if you promote Schwarber and give him 200 AB this summer, he may well K at the full Russell/Baez/Alcantara/Soler/Bryant-type rate. Whether he'd hit enough HR's to sustain a .750 OPS, I'm not sure. Maybe he would.
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Box score says Antigua is pitching the second game at Iowa.
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Cubs 26th rounder starting in game 2 at Iowa.
27th rounder, sorry.
Starting at 2B.
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1st rounder Jon Harris who at one point had been in discussion for the Cubs pick, is pitching against Eugene. 4K's through the first two innings, but Happ got the only hit off him. Sands tonight.
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You were the one referencing his over .900 OPS, which is sillily built on the BABIP, and will likewise drop by the same 50 points. :) I know, it's all small sample. I'm just cautious that when a guy K's so much in the minors and majors, he might not necessarily do that well in the majors when the pitchers are using scouting reports.
AA pitchers are working on their own stuff, and don't have a lot of scouting reports even if they wanted to focus on using them. But in majors, the scouting is extensive and pitchers are pitching solely for outs, not to work on their quota of off speed pitches. I think that there's a fair chance that if you promote Schwarber and give him 200 AB this summer, he may well K at the full Russell/Baez/Alcantara/Soler/Bryant-type rate. Whether he'd hit enough HR's to sustain a .750 OPS, I'm not sure. Maybe he would.
Well, don't think I was the one bringing up his AAA stats as cause for alarm---or for anything else.
Most interesting thing about these posts is that Schwarber has created a very high bar,indeed. His current AAA line after game 1 of today's Iowa dh is 333-396-542. With Cubs, he went 364-391-591. From these games and sample size, we have to get into K/HR ratio to find something bad!! Okay, have at it.
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McKinney: 2-4
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_06_tenaax_biraax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Myrtle Beach:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_06_myrafa_cmcafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_06_vtbrok_vcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
DSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_06_dmlrok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Iowa Gm 1:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_06_iowaaa_nozaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Iowa Gm 2:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_06_iowaaa_nozaaa_2&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 1-5, 2B, RBI, BB, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_06_ftwafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
-
...DSL: http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_06_dmlrok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
...
Chris Pieters wasn't a very good pitcher. But he brought a .454 OBP into today's game before going 4/5. And he's stolen 14 bases in 15 attempts.
The switch from player to pitcher is common, but the reverse not so much.
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Ryan Williams with 7 Ks in 3 innings.
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Sands: 4-3-2-2-4-0
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_06_vanasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Smokies' pitcher Ryan Williams continues to do his Kyle Hendricks impression very well.
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Williams is now 23. Hendricks was also 23 when he was in AA.
Hendricks at age 23, however, had an ERA of 1.85 in 126 innings in AA.
Williams at age 23 has only thrown 30 innings there for an ERA of 2.08 in AA, with another 53 innings in A-ball this season and an ERA there of 1.17.
If he further tracks Hendrick's path the next two years, he could be a valuable addition to the rotation in 2017. Though he is unlikely to make it (as is the case with nealy all AA prospects), he is part of the what the Cubs need in years to come to have a steady stream of low cost prospects joining the major league team and contributing.
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Curious thing with Williams is that his K-rate was low in A-, but fine in AA. 6K/9IP, I figured he was just throwing average fastballs over the plate to contact, and since A- guys have little HR power it worked. Curious that he's actually K'ing more now.
As a college junior, he had only 45K/96IP, totally a contact guy. http://web1.ncaa.org/stats/StatsSrv/careerplayer
In college, I'm only seeing two seasons at East Carolina. Was he at some JC or something prior? Or simply not playing at all?
The other interesting thing is that as a senior he was a reliever, not a starter. A senior reliever with low K's at a non-majors school, now a rotation guy in AA. Funny different paths for different players.
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BA new top 50 prospects:
6. Schwarber
28. G. Torres
30. McKinney
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BA new top 50 prospects:
6. Schwarber
28. G. Torres
30. McKinney
Nice!
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BA chat today
Justin (Memphis): How close was Duane Underwood to making the list? He seems to have TOR "stuff", and is finally learning how and whent to pitch to contact.
John Manuel: It’s a top of the rotation fastball; up to 99 mph at times this year. The secondary stuff, according to our reports, are not top of the rotation yet. He’s the top-ranking Cubs pitching prospect right now, though I think Dylan Cease actually has a higher upside. I don’t think Underwood is top 50 ready yet though. There are pieces there, but a K rate below 6 per 9 is a good indicator that while he’s an exciting pitching prospect, let’s not get too crazy yet.
(Not sure why taking questions from Tenn guys).
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More BA chat:
Dave (New York City): Where would recent signees Alex Bregman and Carson Fulmer slot, based on their College/CWS/Draft evaluations?
John Manuel: Bregman is fascinating to me; I think he’s be in the top 30, around where Gleyber Torres ranks (28). Those guys are similar; I’d give Torres a slight edge for hitting ability with Bregman a slight defensive edge, more likely to stay at SS.
Tyler (Chicago): Addisson Russell has been slumping bad! If you were the Cubs would you send him to AAA to try and regain his confidence or let him battle through it? Have you lost any confidence in his longterm potential?
J.J. Cooper: It’s a slump. if you are the Cubs, the biggest question right now is do you have a better option to step in to replace Russell. He’s pretty good defensively and Baez hasn’t gotten back into action yet so that answer right now is probably no. No, I don’t think this is along-term concern at all.
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Schwarber making up for his 3-K game has two doubles and a homer already tonight.
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Glad to see improvement in his K/HR ratio.
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Of course he struck out his next two times.
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Schwarber: 3-5, 2 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 2 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_07_iowaaa_nozaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
South Bend:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_07_ftwafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
DSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_07_dcurok_dpirok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_07_vcurok_vtbrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Zagunis: 2-5, 2B, 3 K
Berg: 1-2-2-2-1-0 Myrtle Beach debut
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_07_wswafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Johnson: 7 IP, R
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_07_tenaax_biraax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Glad to see improvement in his K/HR ratio.
:):):) And get the BABIP up over .500! If he can both boost that BABIP a little further over .500, AND get the K/HR better, he'll have a nice shot in the PCL. :)
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Kind of amazing what seems like consistently low Ks by Cubs pitching prospects, even in a good game. Is that perception fair? Three Ks for Johnson in an otherwise strong 7 innings.
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I hope that's a symptom of pitchers working primarily on fastball command. That's the most important factor in pitching success, followed closely by changing speeds.
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The young pitchers at Eugene are racking up K's. Black's about the only high-K guy at the upper levels and his relief work has been a mixed bag.
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Underwood is working on fastball command. It would make sense that Johnson is as well, his command has been suspect. Edwards has been another high K guy as well.
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:):):) And get the BABIP up over .500! If he can both boost that BABIP a little further over .500, AND get the K/HR better, he'll have a nice shot in the PCL. :)
Heard that Schwarber working hard on his BABIP skills at AAA, along with framing, blocking balls in dirt, and fielding toppers.
Will be ready for the Show once he gets OPS over 1.200 and framing in the Castillo/Molina class.
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Underwood is working on fastball command. It would make sense that Johnson is as well, his command has been suspect. Edwards has been another high K guy as well.
Skeptical about the "working on fastball command" line.
Think just another way to say that off-speed stuff of a pitcher is undeveloped. Lots of good starting pitcher prospects around baseball strike out plenty of guys. That Cubs starter prospects seem K challenged is telling--and not in a good way.
BA/Manuel chat comment about Underwood makes it pretty clear that industry view is that Underwood currently behind in secondary stuff. Working on fastball command? EVERY pitcher is working on fastball command. Just listen to Lester, Hendricks talk about their fastball command after a start. A constant concer . Doesn't mean you don't throw other good stuff.
Whispers or notion that a Class A pitcher (or any pitcher) is eschewing his good off-speed stuff on a consistent basis all season---use your common sense on that one.
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Alamo has two more passed balls tonight giving him 9 on the year in 12 games and 16 in 29 games since being drafted.
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Alamo has two more passed balls tonight giving him 9 on the year in 12 games and 16 in 29 games since being drafted.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/PB_leagues.shtml
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Alamo has two more passed balls tonight giving him 9 on the year in 12 games and 16 in 29 games since being drafted.
That's something we should all remember.
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Happ: 0-3, RBI, 2 BB, K, 3 for last 22 w/ 11 BB's
Steele: 5-5-4-1-1-6
Eregua: 3-0-0-0-1-7, 13-2/3 IP, 1 BB, 20 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_07_vanasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Mesa:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_07_pdrrok_cubrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Schwarber's homer:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=239344583&sid=milb
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Skeptical about the "working on fastball command" line.
Think just another way to say that off-speed stuff of a pitcher is undeveloped. Lots of good starting pitcher prospects around baseball strike out plenty of guys. That Cubs starter prospects seem K challenged is telling--and not in a good way.
BA/Manuel chat comment about Underwood makes it pretty clear that industry view is that Underwood currently behind in secondary stuff. Working on fastball command? EVERY pitcher is working on fastball command. Just listen to Lester, Hendricks talk about their fastball command after a start. A constant concer . Doesn't mean you don't throw other good stuff.
Whispers or notion that a Class A pitcher (or any pitcher) is eschewing his good off-speed stuff on a consistent basis all season---use your common sense on that one.
That comes straight from a BP guy that has actually watched him pitch. He was throwing fastballs, when he should be throwing his off speed pitches. The Pirates are known for having their pitching prospects so this as well and it suppresses their strikeout totals at lower levels. This doesn't mean that his secondary pitches are amazing and they do need work, but fastball and is much more important for him to develop.
BA is heavily dependent on what scouts tell them. BP does a much better at actually scouting the players.
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Schwarber's homer:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=239344583&sid=milb
As soon as I saw his swing, I said "it looks like he is just trying to protect the plate with two strikes". Then the announcer says it was an 0-2 pitch.
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That's something we should all remember.
Groan. ::)
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Whispers or notion that a Class A pitcher (or any pitcher) is eschewing his good off-speed stuff on a consistent basis all season---use your common sense on that one.
"Working on fastball command" does not necessarily mean eschewing your off speed pitches. Johnson is primarily a fastball/slider guy, and one thing we learned from Marmol was that a good slider is almost worthless unless the batter is concerned about you throwing your fastball for a strike. Sliders, by their very nature, are balls, often even in the dirt. The success of a slider is that it looks like a fastball coming in for a strike until it is too late for the batter to make an adjustment. If the batter feels sure that you can't get your fastball over the plate, he is going to hold up on all low pitches.
One thing this front office seems to value for both offense and pitchers is control of the strike zone. And many pitchers can not control the strike zone consistently if they throw every pitch as hard as they possibly can. It would behoove those pitchers to ease off two or three MPH on their fastball if it increases their command of the zone and makes their slider more effective. Of course, reducing the velocity makes your fastball more hittable if that increased command doesn't come to fruition. This might be what he is saying when he says they are "working on their fastball"
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That comes straight from a BP guy that has actually watched him pitch. He was throwing fastballs, when he should be throwing his off speed pitches. The Pirates are known for having their pitching prospects so this as well and it suppresses their strikeout totals at lower levels. This doesn't mean that his secondary pitches are amazing and they do need work, but fastball and is much more important for him to develop.
BA is heavily dependent on what scouts tell them. BP does a much better at actually scouting the players.
Actually, the industry perspective (BA) is more authoritative, from my viewpoint, than one guy who has watched the player pitch--with few exceptions. One guy is one guy and who knows how often the guy has seen the player. BA talks to league managers, scouts, others. Much better point of view.
"When he should be throwing his off speed pitches"---how can anyone make an evaluation based on suppositions like that? Maybe the pitcher just doesn't have confidence in his off speed pitches. Don't buy it.
Dave's point makes a bit more sense. Yeah, don't overthrow the fastball or necessarily throw as hard as you can. But, why would that reduce Ks (my original point)? If a pitcher is throwing more strikes (because of not overthrowing), he should also be getting ahead of the count more--hence, more K opportunities. And, in any event, there are more swings-and-misses on off-speed pitches than on fastballs. That is where the Ks often come from. If you don't have the off-speed stuff, there's a problem.
Bottom line is that makes no sense that a pitcher with good secondary stuff isn't throwing that stuff enough for scouts (or anybody else) to see. If you're not seeing it in games, it's underdeveloped.
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BP gets the industry perspective as well, the just use it to confirm what they are seeing. It is a far superior product.
w
"When he should be throwing his off speed pitches"---how can anyone make an evaluation based on suppositions like that? Maybe the pitcher just doesn't have confidence in his off speed pitches. Don't buy it.
It isn't a hard thing to figure out. Underwood is throwing mostly fastballs and working on the location. If you have a pitchers count and two strikes and your throwing a hittable inside fastball instead of elevating an elevated fastball or a breaking ball you are working on fastball command. That will reduce K's, which goes to your original point. It isn't that he doesn't have a curve/change up. It isn't that those pitches are below average. He has a development plan that fastball command is important and the Cubs are limiting his use of those pitches. When the command comes they will let him start using his other pitches. This isn't a radical or weird development course for pitchers to have. Some organizations due it with every pitcher and I wouldn't mind the Cubs doing it with everyone.
Bottom line is that makes no sense that a pitcher with good secondary stuff isn't throwing that stuff enough for scouts (or anybody else) to see. If you're not seeing it in games, it's underdeveloped.
Scouts are seeing the makings of an above-average curve ball. It needs consistency. Pitches can be worked on in side sessions and that is where most of that development will take place. Fastball command is much more of a game skill. Once that comes the rest will be much easier for him.
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http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/mlb-declares-cuban-pitcher-vladimir-gutierrez-free-agent/
His curve ball is the second half of the video. He would be nice to beat the Dodgers for.
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BP gets the industry perspective as well, the just use it to confirm what they are seeing. It is a far superior product.
It isn't a hard thing to figure out. Underwood is throwing mostly fastballs and working on the location. If you have a pitchers count and two strikes and your throwing a hittable inside fastball instead of elevating an elevated fastball or a breaking ball you are working on fastball command. That will reduce K's, which goes to your original point. It isn't that he doesn't have a curve/change up. It isn't that those pitches are below average. He has a development plan that fastball command is important and the Cubs are limiting his use of those pitches. When the command comes they will let him start using his other pitches. This isn't a radical or weird development course for pitchers to have. Some organizations due it with every pitcher and I wouldn't mind the Cubs doing it with everyone.
Scouts are seeing the makings of an above-average curve ball. It needs consistency. Pitches can be worked on in side sessions and that is where most of that development will take place. Fastball command is much more of a game skill. Once that comes the rest will be much easier for him.
Look, a pitcher can work on fastball command and location---and still throw the best off-speed stuff he has in a game situation. These are not mutually exclusive notions. So, what the industry is seeing re. Underwood off-speed is what he currently has. And, underdeveloped off-speed stuff hinders Ks. That's the point. The modest Ks we are seeing are not because of a "plan" to develop fastball command--they can do that regardless--but because of the other stuff that is currently lacking.
Not saying he can't improve off-speed in side sessions. Every prospect on planet is working on something in side sessions. Saying that attributing modest Ks to a grand plan for fastball command makes no sense. You can walk and chew gum at same time on the mound.
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Look, a pitcher can work on fastball command and location---and still throw the best off-speed stuff he has in a game situation. These are not mutually exclusive notions. So, what the industry is seeing re. Underwood off-speed is what he currently has. And, underdeveloped off-speed stuff hinders Ks. That's the point. The modest Ks we are seeing are not because of a "plan" to develop fastball command--they can do that regardless--but because of the other stuff that is currently lacking.
Not saying he can't improve off-speed in side sessions. Every prospect on planet is working on something in side sessions. Saying that attributing modest Ks to a grand plan for fastball command makes no sense. You can walk and chew gum at same time on the mound.
What actually makes no sense is being certain what the Cubs' development plan is for him, or any other prospect, when all you have for that certainty is your personal speculation. You have no idea what the Cubs have told him to do in games or what pitches to use or not to use. Whether he, or you, or anyone else, can walk and chew gum at the same time on the mound is irrelevant to the discussion. The question is what have the Cubs told him to do for development purposes and how and when have they told him to use certain pitches. You have no idea what those directions might have been.
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According to the BP guy he is throwing 80% fastballs, including obvious strike out counts.
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What actually makes no sense is being certain what the Cubs' development plan is for him, or any other prospect, when all you have for that certainty is your personal speculation. You have no idea what the Cubs have told him to do in games or what pitches to use or not to use. Whether he, or you, or anyone else, can walk and chew gum at the same time on the mound is irrelevant to the discussion. The question is what have the Cubs told him to do for development purposes and how and when have they told him to use certain pitches. You have no idea what those directions might have been.
#ironic
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Another homer for Schwarber
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According to the BP guy he is throwing 80% fastballs, including obvious strike out counts.
Assuming that to be true, is that inconsistent with the notion of a pitcher with undeveloped off-speed stuff?
Indeed, I would expect high % of heat if that is what it takes to get guys out.
It doesn't follow that he would strike out more guys if he threw more poor off-speed stuff. Rather, more logical that the low Ks is a product of an absence of good off-speed stuff. He is not holding back his good stuff. Hopefully, he'll develop that in the future.
You're saying the good stuff is there and Cubs are holding him back from using it more? Really?
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I have no idea what Johnson's problems have been, nor do I know what, or if, the Cubs have told him to pitch in any specific way.
But IF his problem is with command of his fastball, I don't know what would be gained by his deciding, or the Cubs telling him, to throw more breaking balls. I would think that both Johnson and the Cubs would feel that it would be better to work on his weakness rather than stress his strengths. Winning is meaningless in the minors, as is the associated stats, and I would hope that players there are working on their weaknesses, which to me would imply in this case throwing more rather than fewer fastballs.
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i get that a guy just coming back after missing so much time might be working on this and that--Johnson.
No idea either what the plan is with Johnson, other than keeping him healthy.
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McKinney: 2-4, 2B, RBI, K
Contreras: 3B, RBI
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_08_tenaax_biraax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Schwarber: HR, RBI, 2 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_08_iowaaa_omaaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
South Bend:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_08_souafx_ftwafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Myrtle Beach gets 2-hit:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_08_wswafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_08_vcurok_vphrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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That is exactly what I'm saying the Cubs are doing with Underwood and if they are doing it is a really good thing.
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Johnson has basically finished a rehab--now at 5 starts. A rehab guy is always on a program of some kind.
Underwood pitched opening day. You can put him on a restricted program when he gets off the DL.
Apples and oranges.
So, you're saying the good off-speed stuff is actually there with Underwood and Cubs are discouraging him from using it in games? Hence, that's why low Ks? Is that the notion?
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Didn't Underwood just have an MRI because of shoulder soreness?
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Schwarber homer:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=242544783&sid=milb
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Schwarber homer:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=242544783&sid=milb
Fascinating comment by one of the announcers at the end of the homer clip:
"Schwarber takes hitting so seriously that he doesn't put his bats in a standard cloth bat bag. He sends them on the plane in a protective metal case."
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Dewees: 3-4, 2 2B, RBI, K
De La Cruz: 6-2-1-1-2-6
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_08_vanasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Galindo: 3-4, RBI, SB
De Los Rio: 5-4-2-1-1-6
Malave: 2-0-0-0-1-3, 7 IP, 2 H, 12 K's overall
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_08_cubrok_athrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
DSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_08_dpirok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Johnson has basically finished a rehab--now at 5 starts. A rehab guy is always on a program of some kind.
So, you're saying the good off-speed stuff is actually there with Underwood and Cubs are discouraging him from using it in games? Hence, that's why low Ks? Is that the notion?
Yes. The Pirates do it with all their pitching prospects. His off speed pitches need consistency, but that is something that is better worked on in side sessions, not during games.
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in the Pirates system, when are they allowed to use breaking balls in games and to start striking people out.
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DelaRosa is up to .300 with 8XBH/21H.
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Craig, depends on each pitcher and his progress.
Their system has a well-known program in place for pitching prospects that emphasizes fastball control and ground balls in order to limit pitch count and any potentially damaging breaking ball effects.
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And yet they've have a slew of guys with TJS too.
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Pirates are heavy on pitching inner part of plate and developing change-up to complement heater. Yes, they emphasize grounders and limiting pitch counts. But, look at K % of their starters at Sally League affiliate (West Virginia)---all but one of their top 6 starters have very good IP/K %. You can K guys even with their philosophy. Obviously, Glasnow has done that--about 12 Ks per 9 in his career.
As to Underwood, think the modest Ks are telling about his off-speed stuff--not any Cubs philosophy discouraging him from throwing good off-speed stuff. He just does not have that repetoire (yet). When he develops that, the Ks will increase.
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It's not realistic to believe that kids who are trying to make it to the big leagues arent throwing their best stuff no matter what they're told.
To think otherwise is foolish.
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Assuming that to be true, is that inconsistent with the notion of a pitcher with undeveloped off-speed stuff?
Indeed, I would expect high % of heat if that is what it takes to get guys out.
It doesn't follow that he would strike out more guys if he threw more poor off-speed stuff. Rather, more logical that the low Ks is a product of an absence of good off-speed stuff. He is not holding back his good stuff. Hopefully, he'll develop that in the future.
You're saying the good stuff is there and Cubs are holding him back from using it more? Really?
If they want him to develop command of his fastball, which is generally more important for most pitchers, the Cubs MAY be telling him to focus on his fastball. I don't believe anyone here is saying what the Cubs have done other than you. I believe other posters are merely addressing what MIGHT be the case. You seem to be the only one with absolute certainty as to why something is happening.
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I remember a few years ago talking about how bad the our drafting was and someone had some WAR stats on the total for every team which players were drafted. I was wondering if anyone remembers where to get that info. I was just curious how the Cubs stack up now.
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Adding in Donaldson's WAR should make a difference.
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Tseng 7 innings, 2 hits, 1 run, 0 walks, 5 strike outs. And he is losing the game.
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He carried a perfect game into the 7th inning.
The Cubs minor league teams do tend to get shut out a lot. Seems they often have at least one and sometimes several shutouts per night.
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Stinnett has been a very low-K guy this season. Only touched 5 K's in two of his previous 9 starts.
Tonight he's got 6 K's through 3 innings. Also has 3 walks, 5 hits, and 4 runs. But I'm glad to see him getting some K's going.
Heh heh, maybe the Cubs haven't allowed him to throw many non-fastballs until tonight, but now they have and with it come both the K's and the walks as a partnership? Underwood, Stinnett, and Tseng have all three been very low-K guys this year. Well, I guess Underwood and Tseng were really low-K guys last year too, and Underwood the year before last as well.
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Stinnett is Dutch for Hayden Simpson, I'm pretty sure.
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Tseng 7 innings, 2 hits, 1 run, 0 walks, 5 strike outs. And he is losing the game.
Now it is 8 innings, 2 hits, 1 run, 0 walks, 5 strike outs. And he is losing the game.
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Schwarber: 0-3, 2 BB, 3 K
Edwards: 2-0-0-0-3-5
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_09_iowaaa_omaaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
McKinney: 2B, BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_09_blxaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
South Bend:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_09_souafx_ftwafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Myrtle Beach:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_09_wswafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_09_vphrok_vcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Happ: 0-3, BB, SB (.221)
Paulino: 4-2/3 -4-4-4-3-8
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_09_eugasx_triasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Galindo: 2-4, 2B, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_09_cubrok_rngrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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A third strike from Tseng whose motion looks very similar to that of Daisuke Matsuzaka.
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?&sid=milb&content_id=245263083
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DSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_09_dynrok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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2 BB for Happ.
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2 BB for Happ.
I wonder how often guys have more walks than hits? Happ is 21BB/15H.
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It happens.
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Bonds, pretty much every season from 2001. In 2004, 232 BB and 135 hits!
Ted Williams finished career with 2021 walks and 2654 hits.
So, obviously, Happ is heading for greatness---assuming he can hit more than .220.
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McKinney: 2B, 2 RBI, 2 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_10_blxaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Myrtle Beach exploded for two runs:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_10_cmcafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_10_vtirok_vcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Peguero: 2-2, BB, SB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_10_dcurok_dynrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Cease: 3 perfect innings, 3K.
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Iowa:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_10_iowaaa_omaaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 2-5, K
Santana up from Eugene: 2-1-1-1-1-2
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_10_lcoafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Argue from Cubs Den is at the Arizona game.
Cease hitting 97 with good arm side movement. Darryl Wilson is very fast.
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Delarosa: 2-5, 2B, K
Happ: 2-5
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_10_eugasx_triasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Galindo: 2-4, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_10_giarok_cubrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Hannemann does this almost daily now. Too bad he produces like Castro.
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=248585383&sid=milb
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New BA Cubs top 10 prospects:
MIDSEASON TOP 10
1. Kyle Schwarber, c/dh
If Schwarber can catch as a big leaguer, he’ll be an all-star. He has flashed the defensive ability, throwing out Byron Buxton on one stolen base attempt and showing the desire to work at his craft. He still was tied for the Southern League lead in passed balls a month after being promoted and had thrown out just 22 of opposing basestealers. He needs significant refinement defensively, but pitchers like throwing to him and like having him in the lineup when they pitch. He’s a strong, discerning hitter with premium power potential, ranking among minor league leaders in on-base and slugging percentage.
2. Gleyber Torres, ss
Just 18, Torres had been one of the low Class A Midwest League’s top hitters, with a smooth swing and solid present strength. The MWL’s youngest player, Torres has caught up to the speed of the game defensively; he has middle-infield hands and will stay at shortstop unless or until he outgrows it physically.
3. Billy McKinney, of
McKinney’s mature approach and improving power made him one of the system’s most dangerous hitters. He’s setting in as a corner outfielder, and some scouts see 20 homers annually in his future. Off-and-on shoulder problems may limit him to left.
4. Duane Underwood, rhp
Underwood had an MRI in late June that came up clean, but it lent a down note to Underwood’s strong first half. He pitches with a plus fastball that regularly sits at 95 mph and has touched 99. He needs health, and more consistent location of his hard curveball and improving changeup. He led the Carolina League in lowest opponents’ average.
5. Mark Zagunis, of
Drafted as a catcher out of Virginia Tech in 2014, Zagunis was leading the high Class A Carolina League in on-base percentage (and ranked second in the minors) in his first full season. He has moved strictly to the outfield, profiling well in right field with solid-average power.
6. Carl Edwards, rhp
Once the Cubs’ top pitching prospect, Edwards still has top-shelf stuff, with a lively low-90s fastball with late sink to go with a solid curveball and above-average changeup. The slightly built Edwards has moved to the bullpen, reaching Triple-A.
7. Dylan Cease, rhp
Considered one of the top prep pitchers in the 2014 class, Cease had Tommy John surgery, knocking him to the sixth round, where the Cubs signed him for $1.5 million. He’s come back with electric hand speed in the Rookie-level Arizona League, throwing 94-99 mph regularly, touching 100 and flashing a plus breaking ball.
8. Albert Almora, of
Almora’s stock continues to slip. He’s adjusted his swing, toning his leg kick down to more of a knee tuck, and is on time more often but remains too aggressive at the plate. He has cut his strikeout rate and drawn more walks; now he needs more selectivity.
9. Willson Contreras, c/3b
The Cubs liked Contreras’ athleticism and tools previously, but he’s taken a major step forward offensively and in his maturity. He has opposite-field power, plus arm strength and solid-average defense behind the plate to go with his much-improved bat. He’s a late bloomer with tools at a premium position.
10. Pierce Johnson, rhp
The oft-injured Johnson had missed the first two months with a lat muscle strain late in spring training. He was throwing well in his return at Double-A, with a low-90s fastball with late life up in the zone. His flyball tendencies and frequent DL trips make him a risky pitching prospect.
Rising
Ryan Williams, rhp: A $1,000 signee as a senior, Williams has reached Double-A in his first pro season and had not yielded a home run in 80-plus innings in the process, thanks to excellent control of his 89-92 mph sinker.
Falling
Jake Stinnett, rhp: Seemingly poised to move quickly, Stinnett has struggled in his first full pro season. Still fairly new to pitching, Stinnett has battled his command and faltered when pure fastball velocity hasn’t led to success.
Hurting
LHP Rob Zastryzny has spent two stints on the disabled list with a right foot injury and was rehabbing in Arizona. Nagging arm and leg soreness has slowed RHP James Norwood, who was headed back to a full-season rotation in the second half.
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Thanks Reb.
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This week's BA Hot Sheet:
6. Jen-Ho Tseng, rhp, Cubs
Team: high Class A Myrtle Beach (Carolina)
Age: 20
Why He’s Here: 0-1, 0.69, 2 GS, 13 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 HR, 3 BB, 11 SO, 1 HBP
The Scoop: Though the Taiwanese righty is just 2-6, 3.91 through 14 starts this season, he has turned in his two finest efforts his last two times out. One of Tseng’s performances includes a tough-luck loss to Winston-Salem in which he allowed only one run on two hits in eight innings, but perhaps the best news is that his strikeout rate (7.6 batters per nine innings) is trending up in July.
16. Kyle Schwarber, c, Cubs
Team: Triple-A Iowa (Pacific Coast)
Age: 22
Why He’s Here: .375/.483/.750 (9-for-24), 4 R, 3 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBIs, 5 BB, 10 SO
The Scoop: The Cubs have seen fit to have Schwarber catch nearly every game since his demotion to Iowa. The organization recognizes how valuable his stick would be behind the plate, even if he catches just twice a week.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-hot-sheet-july-10-giolito-claims-top-spot/
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Hannemann does this almost daily now. Too bad he produces like Castro. http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=248585383&sid=milb
Wow, beautiful catch. His combined season hitting stats are in some composite ways similar to Almora:
OBP: .299 vs .294
BA: .247 vs .249
Slugging: .351 vs .365
Reynaldo gets there three years younger and with much lower K-rate and BABIP, but he's actually got more baseball experience than Hannemann. Will be interesting to see which of the two ends up improving more offensively.
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Hannman has been hitting much better of late as well. He was in the .180's for a good stretch of time after his promotion. As Craig points out he has much less experience than somebody like Almora despite his age.
On a side note, when does Williams become a prospect?
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June 8, 2017
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At the game in Omaha
Sczur with a nice liner to LF and gets picked off 1B.
Alcantara k's on 2 swing and misses off of a 88 mph fastball.
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reb, thanks much for the BA reports.
1. "some scouts see 20 homers annually in his future." McKinney with 20-HR annually is a very, very, very, very good hitting prospect.
2. "excellent control of his 89-92 mph sinker". A guy can get a lot of outs on a well-controlled 89-92 sinker.
3. "smooth swing and solid present strength" Will be interesting to see what the future strength/power will be.
4. "pitchers like throwing to him" Means a lot.
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Still having Almora at #8 is kind of amazing. Not sure if that reflects ill on those behind, or just speaks to the tenure system.
Kind of astonishing that Contreras is still behind Amora on that list, and is only #9. Contreras has been really consistent this year, and his hitting numbers really have no issues, other than the limited HR power. 36K/27BB/254AB, those are very, very solid contact numbers. He's having a very strong BABIP season, (.361, I think), so maybe he's been somewhat lucky. But, he's seemed to have been holding his average up around .320 and his OPS up near .900 for a long time. I think there's a fair chance that his offense is fairly real. He's got seemingly solid *tools* defensively; I wonder if there is some negativity about his pitch-calling and working with the pitchers? Seems he should have better quickness/blocking/catch-and-throw physical tools than Schwarber? But I wonder if Schwarber is his better in the cerebral aspects?
Contreras could be a pretty valuable asset, I think.
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I'd have to guess that with every outing that Cease can have in which he's throwing strikes, his stock would be rising too.
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Alcantara hit a triple in the game, but he looks very uncomfortable at the plate.
Olt with another K. I think both of them where looking. Rowen was warming up in the pen, but he didn't get in the game. Schwarber-less I Cubs are a let down.
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Arguello shot a bit of Cease pitching last night:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ngY3C5cXphA
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He also got DJ Wilson:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOpKLdSgtnY
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Oh word? A Reggie Cleveland all-star.
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Kyle Schwarber is not in the lineup for Iowa tonight. Don't get too excited. He is in Cincinnati for the Futures game on Sunday.
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Wilson is quick out of the box. Not sure how fast his pure 100-yard-dash speed would be, but short guy can probably get to full speed pretty quickly.
Cease has an unusually high over-the-top release point, to my amateur eye.
Ryan Williams with another effective game, 1 run in 6 innings, 5K/0BB. Finally gets his AA ERA under 2.0. Today was his 16th game of the year; he's had only one with 2 walks.
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McKinney: 2-4, 2B, RBI, BB
Contreras: 2-4, BB, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_11_blxaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
South Bend:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_11_lcoafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_11_vcurok_vtirok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
DSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_11_dcurok_metrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Iowa Gm 1:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_11_iowaaa_omaaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Iowa Gm 2:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_11_iowaaa_omaaaa_2&t=g_box&sid=milb
Mesa off.
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Wilson has been between a 60-70 on the scouting scale. That would make him a 6.5-6.7 60 yard dash guy and 4.00 to 4.10 guy to first.
Has there been any scouting reports on Williams? His fastball has been 88-92, but does he have a really good breaking ball or change up?
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Delarosa: 2-4, SB, CS
Happ: 2-4, 2B, 2 SB, K
Eregua: 4-1-0-0-1-4
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_11_eugasx_triasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Happ is 9 for 9 in SB.
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Sub 2 pop time for Schwarber throwing out a base runner in the futures game.
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Edwards on the bump in the futures game right now...
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lazy F7, infield singles for Mazara and Tapia (both on weak dribblers up 3B line), K's Arcia on 95 FB painting inside black followed by 78 knee buckler in dirt, and he's done...presumably to get someone else in the game.
Announcers thought he looked great...
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Prediction is that he may go in a package for Hamel. Rumor. From an article, not my paperboy's sister's ex-boyfriend.
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Kyle Schwarber wins the Futures Game MVP Award (or Larry Doby Award, if you prefer)...
1-3, triple, 2 RBI, 1 runner thrown out stealing
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I love Schwarber, but that should have been a double and an error on the throw.
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Prediction is that he may go in a package for Hamel. Rumor. From an article, not my paperboy's sister's ex-boyfriend.
From where?
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ESPN...pure speculation CUB
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Aww. I don't see the Cubs limiting themselves in FA and giving up the prospects to get him.
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I have no problem with including Edwards in a package for Hamels. But they will want much, much more than that, including one of Bryant, Russell, Schwarber or Soler.
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Clifton: 6-2/3 -6-3-3-2-8
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_12_lcoafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
McKinney: 1-3, BB
Johnson: 5-5-1-1-4-4
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_12_blxaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Myrtle Beach Gm 1:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_11_cmcafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Iowa off.
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I have no problem with including Edwards in a package for Hamels. But they will want much, much more than that, including one of Bryant, Russell, Schwarber or Soler.
Want and get are two different things.
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Zagunis: 0-3, 3 K, 2-23, 10 K's over last 6 games.
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_12_cmcafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Want and get are two different things.
I certainly hope so. But I am willing to bet that if Edwards is included in a package for Hamels, he won't be the best, or even the second best prospect in the package.
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Happ: 2-4, 3B, K
Sands: 2-2/3 -4-6-0-2-1
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_12_eugasx_triasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Wilson: 1-4, 2B, assist
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_12_cubrok_wsxrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Nick J. Faleris @NickJFaleris 12m12 minutes ago
Michael Kopech top 50ish prospect today. Cease may be by summer's end. Top 100ish: Reid-Foley, [healthy] Ortiz, Touki, Steele, Sands, Holmes
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That guy is way too bullish on short season arms.
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Nick J. Faleris @NickJFaleris 12m12 minutes ago
Michael Kopech top 50ish prospect today. Cease may be by summer's end. Top 100ish: Reid-Foley, [healthy] Ortiz, Touki, Steele, Sands, Holmes
A NSBB guy went to a set of Eugene games two rotations ago, and saw all three of Sands, Steels, and DelaCruz. He said the DelaCruz was the most impressive, and that Sands was by far the least impressive. (All Sands and DelaCruz are a couple weeks apart in age, Steele four months younger, so pretty much equal age.) Said DelaCruz was the biggest, strongest, fastest, held his velocity the best, and seemed to have the sharpest/best curveball.
Sands has really struggled his last two starts. 6 walks/1K/7 runs over his last 6 innings. So, obviously it's hard to impress anybody when you're walking everybody, K'ing nobody, and getting shelled. So, not sure the fan observer seeing him have a bad game and then saying that he looked bad is really providing any scouting insight there.
he thought Steele looked good, said he reminded him of Jacob Lindgren of the Yankees.
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Peguero: 2-5, 2B, 2 RBI, E
Pieters: 3-4, 3B, HR, 2 RBI, SB, CS
Marte: 5-0-0-0-1-7, 38 IP, 23 H, 44 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_13_metrok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_13_vphrok_vcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Torres: 1-3, RBI, BB, 2 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_13_lcoafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Zagunis: 1-3, BB, K, SB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_13_cmcafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Contreras: 1-3, BB, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_13_blxaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Iowa off.
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Eric Longenhagen @longenhagen 14m14 minutes ago
Blast from the prospecting past Trey McNutt is 87-89 t91 with an average change here in AZL.
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Jimenez: 2-4, 2 K
Steele: 3-4-3-0-3-2
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_13_eugasx_triasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Mesa:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_13_royrok_cubrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Eric Longenhagen @longenhagen 14m14 minutes ago
Blast from the prospecting past Trey McNutt is 87-89 t91 with an average change here in AZL.
That hurts.
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Eric Longenhagen @longenhagen 14m14 minutes ago
Blast from the prospecting past Trey McNutt is 87-89 t91 with an average change here in AZL.
This was McNutt's second MILB game since 2013. He pitched 2/3 of an inning on July 2 and a full inning on July 13. He's probably not in mid-season form yet.
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Cubs Den mentioned his velocity was up from where it was his last outing. I would guess it gets better.
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If nothing else, have to give the guy credit for pitching through pain and staying with it. Many pitchers would have hung it up by now. A lot of minor league guys just retire when it hurts to throw and rehab and all.
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http://www.torontosun.com/2015/07/05/canada-pan-am-reliever-the-real-million-dollar-arm
Article on Jasvir Rakkar
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Interesting. Thanks, dallen
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Peguero: 1-4, BB
Pieters: RBI, 2 BB, 2 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_14_drxrok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_14_vcurok_vphrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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If nothing else, have to give the guy credit for pitching through pain and staying with it. Many pitchers would have hung it up by now. A lot of minor league guys just retire when it hurts to throw and rehab and all.
Quitting would probably have a positive ROI.
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Quitting would probably have a positive ROI.
I first read this as quilting. I do think some of these guys might be better at quilting that pitching.
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Carl Edwards at Futures Game.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/see-carl-edwards-jr-pitches-futures-game/
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Is it me or does Edwards' arm look like it drags too far behind him?
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Are you talking about during the wind up or after he releases the ball?
He's got an upright finish and that might be some of his command/control issues. In the wind up he does give the batter a nice view of the ball, but from a side view his arm is where it should be at each point in the delivery.
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but from a side view his arm is where it should be at each point in the delivery.
Really? Looks like his head and front side are way out in front of his arm to me.
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If you look at a side view the are fine. At foot strike he's where he should be. He does have his pitching shoulder dropped lower to create leverage and velocity that might be some of what you are seeing.
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AAA all-star game:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_15_ilaaaa_pcaaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Tenn:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_15_tenaax_monaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
South Bend:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_15_souafx_lanafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Tseng: 7 IP, 1 R
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_15_myrafa_potafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
DSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_15_dcurok_drxrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_15_vcurok_vtirok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Nice to see Tseng sequencing some effective games, even if 3B/2K doesn't sound excellent.
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Tseng walked all three in the first two innings, and none in the next 5.
Obviously, his future is in long relief. If they bring him in in the third inning, he should be good.
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Arizona Phil:
Javy Baez is at the Under Armour Performance Center at Riverview Paek, and is doing rehab on an individual basis, which means he can take BP and infield practice pretty much whenever he feels like it, either individually in the enclosed cages or out on Field #1 with the AZL Cubs.
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Rosscup rehabbing in Arizona:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_15_cubrok_royrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Happ: 3-4, 2B, RBI
Jimenez: 2-4
De La Cruz terrific through 4 before a rough 5th.
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_15_hilasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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I don't have access, but the Cubs got 3 in Keith Law's updated top 50. Schwarber, McKinney and Torres?
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10. Kyle Schwarber, C
Age: 22 | B/T: L/R | Height: 6-0 | Weight: 235
Currently at: Triple-A (Iowa)
This ranking may still be too light. I've had two clubs tell me their internal rankings have Schwarber with a 70 hit tool, something I might say about only one or two other players in the minors (Seager in particular). And that praise is coming from quarters where he wasn't as highly regarded before the season; his laying to waste of Double-A pitching before his cup of coffee with the Cubs raised his stock everywhere, including with me. His receiving behind the plate remains his main weakness, but his bat is so advanced that it may behoove the Cubs to move him to left field now to get him to the majors.
30. Gleyber Torres, SS
Age: 18 | B/T: R/R | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 175
Currently at: Class A (South Bend)
Torres won't turn 19 until December and is in the top 15 in the Midwest League in OBP. But it's his defense that really stands out right now, both his range and his instincts at shortstop. He doesn't get mentioned with the Cubs' Big Four of Bryant, Russell, Soler and Schwarber, but he should be just as untouchable in trade talks.
47. Billy McKinney, OF
Age: 20 | B/T: L/L | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 205
Currently at: Double-A (Tennessee)
McKinney was the second prospect the Cubs acquired, along with Addison Russell, last July 5 in the Jeff Samardzija-Jason Hammel trade, and is already raking in Double-A at age 20, with a .298/.354/.438 line in 52 games there since he was promoted from high-A in May. He's limited to left field, and the power may be more like 15-20 homers (less than some anticipated), but he seems like a very good bet to post strong OBPs with good defense for that position.
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Happ was one of a handful of honorable mentions
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Law's the second person in a week to use the 15-20 homer figure with McKinney which strikes me as a head scratcher considering McKinney has 20 in the minors in nearly 1,000 at-bats.
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McKinney is 20. He power and muscle develop later would be my guess. Projecting 20 HR power doesn't mean it is going to come.
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McKinney's already 205 lbs. I don't see projection there. And he has a history of being more of a line-drive hitter with a career high of 11 homers in A-ball. So it strikes me as odd that people would project 15-20 homers from him, particularly if they are projecting that as a yearly average.
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It doesn't mean that he's 205 lbs of good weight and their might be some approach issues. Power for some hitters is the last thing to develop.
Sandberg had 16 HR in 1412 PA through his age 20 season in AA compared to McKinney's 20 HR in 1111 PA. It doesn't mean McKinney is going to develop power, but his current performance isn't ruling it out either.
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Mike Trout had about 20 home runs in about 1000 minor league at bats. Most prospects to not reach many of the projections, but enough do that they can't be ruled out out of hand.
But McKinney is rated highly because he shows good promise even without much increased power.
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Upside for McKinney might be Rusty Greer--didn't hit for power until age 24 in minors. High walks, never struck out 100 times. High average. That would be optimistic.
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Sandberg and Trout, Chris. Sandberg and Trout.
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Luis Gonzalez, hit lots of home runs against the Cubs, hit a few for the Cubs, went to Arizona and became a power machine. Of course, I suspected PED's, but he was also fathering multiple births too, so who know what he was on.
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Sandberg and Trout, Chris. Sandberg and Trout.
Or Jose Bautista.
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Rondell White, Mark DeRosa.
I'm getting bored.
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LOL!
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Rondell White, Mark DeRosa.
I'm getting bored.
Now you know how the rest of us feel when you have a month long back and forth with one of the lawyers. :)
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But I'm not bored ;D
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Actually, think we make progress in those discussions. Get beyond point A. All in good fun, seems to me.
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All in good fun, seems to me.
Text is flat, so sometimes I catch myself in the "wow, he seems especially buttheadish today" point of view and have to remind myself that some people just like to debate stuff. And win.
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Text is flat, so sometimes I catch myself in the "wow, he seems especially buttheadish today" point of view and have to remind myself that some people just like to debate stuff. And win.
I feel the same way, but I usually refer to it as Davepish. Same dif.
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CurtOne is a closet CardinalLover.
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I like the Greer comp on McKinney. Good player, just injured too often.
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Iowa Cubs are on the CBS Sports Network (594 on FIOS). Wada is starting. Iowa's starting outfield is Lake, Szcur, and Baxter. Olt playing first, Villanueva at 3rd, and Alcantara at 2B.
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No SS?
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Villanueva is showing some really good D tonight...
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He better be.
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Thoughts on Jonathan Martinez?
Just turned 21 and posting solid numbers in High A. Strikeouts are low but everything else looks good.
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Rafael Soriano was promoted to Iowa. I missed that.
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Martinez, by several accounts, is an organization arm, not a ML one. I watched his Cubs debut last year and he's just sort of meh. He has good enough control to thrive at lower levels, but I don't think that's going to last higher up the ladder.
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Edwards: 1 IP, 2 BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_16_mrbaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 3-5, E
Santana: 2-0-0-0-1-3
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_16_souafx_lanafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Zagunis: 0-3, 167/333/227 since break in 19 games
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_16_myrafa_potafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Contreras: 1-3, 2 BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_16_tenaax_monaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_16_vtirok_vcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Cease: 3-2-0-0-2-1
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_16_diarok_cubrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Jimenez: 0-4, 3 K
Happ: 1-3, 2B, BB, 2 K
Araujo: 2-0-0-0-0-4, last 4 apps: 8-2/3 IP, 2 BB, 16 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_16_hilasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Noticed Alberto Cabrera's had an awful year in AAA for the Tigers.
http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=501227#/career/R/pitching/2015/ALL
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Peguero: 1-3, 3B, 2 BB, K
Mejia: 1-3, 2 BB, 3 E
Pieters: 1-4, HR, 3 RBI, SB, HBP, E, July: 17-42, 2 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 9 BB, 8 SB, 1.234 OPS
Rondon: 5-3-1-1-3-8, 28 IP, 19 H, 33 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_16_dcurok_drnrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Cease squeezes into this week's Hot Sheet.
20. Dylan Cease, rhp, Cubs
Team: Rookie-level AZL Cubs (Arizona)
Age: 19.
Why He’s Here: 0-0, 0.00, 2 G, 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 4 SO
The Scoop: The Cubs had to be patient with Cease, their 2014 sixth-rounder, after he blew out his elbow during his senior year of high school and needed Tommy John surgery. Back on the mound for his first simulated games by the end of spring training, he reached full speed by the start of the Arizona League season. His stuff has made it all the way back, for he’s touched 98 mph at his best. The Cubs are slowly stretching him out with three-inning stints, but he has the stuff to become one of the team’s best pitching prospects.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-hot-sheet-july-17/
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Pieters: 1-4, HR, 3 RBI, SB, HBP, E, July: 17-42, 2 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 9 BB, 8 SB, 1.234 OPS
..http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_16_dcurok_drnrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
I wonder how fast Pieters will get moved up, and if he'll hit in US? At 6'3", he's 19/2 in the SB/CS department, in 37 games. I wonder if he could perhaps be a long-strider in CF who could have range defensively? 3 HR in his last 7 games, perhaps there is some power possibilities? K's are high for a 20-year-old in VSL, but 34BB/24K is interesting ratio even for low level.
.466 OBP isn't going to last, but there's nothing BABIP-fluky about it relative to his league. .466 OBP with speed and some power in CF, it's an interesting combination of tools.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRd2WwgK08o&feature=youtu.be
4 minutes of Cease from yesterday.
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I wonder how fast Pieters will get moved up, and if he'll hit in US? At 6'3", he's 19/2 in the SB/CS department, in 37 games. I wonder if he could perhaps be a long-strider in CF who could have range defensively? 3 HR in his last 7 games, perhaps there is some power possibilities? K's are high for a 20-year-old in VSL, but 34BB/24K is interesting ratio even for low level.
.466 OBP isn't going to last, but there's nothing BABIP-fluky about it relative to his league. .466 OBP with speed and some power in CF, it's an interesting combination of tools.
LOL I was looking at Pieters and I thought it said 2B OF and then I noticed he was left handed. I thought WTH? Then I noticed it was 28, not 2B.
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Torres: 3-5, 2 2B, 2 RBI, SB, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_17_souafx_lanafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Young: 5-5, 3B, RBI
Torrez: 6 IP, 1 R
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_17_myrafa_potafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_17_vcurok_vtbrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Villanueva: 2 HR, 3 RBI
Media: 1/3 -2-4-4-2-1, 3 WP
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_17_mrbaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Contreras: 2-5, 2B, RBI
Johnson: 6-2/3 -6-1-1-2-5
Black: 1/3 -1-3-2-2-1
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_17_tenaax_monaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Happ: 2-4, 2B, K
Alamo: PB(11)
Eregua: 5-1-0-0-2-6
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_17_hilasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Mesa idle.
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Peguero: 2-4, 3B, BB, E
Pieters: 2-5, RBI, K
Gonzalez: 4 PB, 10 PB in 18 Gms
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_17_drnrok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Contreras: 2-5, 2B, RBI
Johnson: 6-2/3 -6-1-1-2-5
Black: 1/3 -1-3-2-2-1
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_17_tenaax_monaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Contreras now has a hitting line of .320/.399/.480/.879 in 275 AB.
Johnson has an ERA of 1,27 in 35 innings, all starts, and without a single bad start. He's now 24. If he continues as he has, it will be interesting to see if he gets a September callup and a few innings in the majors.
Black's ERA for the last ten games is 4.70, and 3.74 in 67 innings for the season, with a W/K ratio of 32/77, an opposition BA of .202, WHIP of 1.17 and a GO/FO ratio of 1.11
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Torres: 3-5, 2 2B, 2 RBI, SB, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_17_souafx_lanafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres is 6th in the league in BA, 19th in OPS, 11th in OBP, is not yet 18 and a half, and reportedly has a glove which would allow him to make the majors as an asset SS even if his hitting in the majors is in line with weak-hitting SS of the past. Torres is 3.4 years younger than the league average of all players in his league.
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Torres: 2-4, 3B, RBI, SB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_18_wmiafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Alcantara: 2 3B
Villanueva: 2-4, 2B, 3 RBI, 2 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_18_mrbaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
McKinney: 0-4, BB, 2 K, 0 for last 21
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_18_tenaax_monaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Zagunis: 1-4, 2B, BB, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_18_myrafa_potafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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McKinney: 0-4, BB, 2 K, 0 for last 21
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_18_tenaax_monaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Might qualify as a slump.
Anytime someone goes thru a streak like that it would seem to make sense to give them a day ot two off.
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Jimenez: 2-5, RBI, K
Alzolay: 5 IP, 0 R
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_18_eugasx_vanasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Mesa:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_18_athrok_cubrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Daryl Wilson played 4 out of 5 days back last weekend. Now he's not played since Tuesday. I wonder if he got hurt? Or if they had him play for a few days, give them a chance to see how his swing works against pro pitching, and now are working on his stroke or something? Just curious whether it's injury or a developmental thing. If the latter, kind of interesting.
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Carson Sands, woof
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Sands has another tough game. Gives up 9 hits and runs before getting pulled with one out in the. First.
Had put on 13 base runners during previous 6.2 innings, two starts. Now 22 base runners in seven innings. Ouch.
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Villanueva: 2-4, HR, 3 RBI
Edwards: 2-0-0-0-1-2
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_19_mrbaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 2-5, 2B, E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_19_wmiafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Sands has another tough game. Gives up 9 hits and runs before getting pulled with one out in the. First.
Had put on 13 base runners during previous 6.2 innings, two starts. Now 22 base runners in seven innings. Ouch.
Eugene given up 14 runs and 15 hits in just three innings of that game so far.
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Just because.......who are some non prospects that you still believe could turn out to be okay? Who are some "real" prospects that you don't believe in?
For me I still take an interest in Junior Lake, Jae Hoon Ha and Jeffrey Baez.
Conversely, Jacob Hanneman, Albert Almora and Jeimer Candelario are still considered prospects by many yet I really don't have much confidence in them.
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I still believe in JR Lake and Arismendy Alcantara and to an extent Armando Rivero.
Almora and Javy Baez not so much.
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Jeffrey Baez has been very hot lately, is the age of a college senior, and did make Baseball America's top 30 Cub list last year … so I (and I'm sure many) still hold out hope for him.
AZPhil was very high on Alamo this past winter despite his low draft round and mediocre numbers last year. He has hit well this year … although his PBs seem to get more attention than his hits. So yes I follow him.
Tayler Scott has also pitched much better after his demotion to the bullpen
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Choose a 2016 starting outfield for Myrtle Beach and South Bend
Here are the options: feel free to move to different OF position or go off the board
LF (2015)
Eloy Jimenez
Charcer Burks
Shawon Dunston
Donnie Dewees
CF (2015)
Ian Happ
Rashad Crawford
Trey Martin
Chris Pieters (for Craig)
RF (2015)
Yasiel Balaguert
Jeffrey Baez
Kevonte Mitchell
Kevin Encarnacion
Robert Garcia
My choice (it'll probably change daily)
Myrtle Beach
LF Donnie Dewees
CF Ian Happ
RF Yasiel Balaguert
South Bend
LF Eloy Jimenez
CF Charcer Burks
RF Jeffrey Baez
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Encarnacion for MB RF. Happ and Dewees may not be in Mrytle Beach for long. If Eloy gets promoted to South Bend this year he might make Mrytle Beach too.
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McKinney: 0-4, 0 for last 25
Contreras: 2-4, k
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_19_tenaax_monaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Blackburn: 4-2/3 -4-0-0-1-5
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_19_salafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Happ: 2-4, 2B, RBI, BB
Jimenez: 2-5, 2B, K
Arajuo: 5-5-2-1-0-10, last 5 apps: 13-2/3 IP, 2 BB, 26 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_19_eugasx_vanasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Mesa:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_19_cubrok_dodrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Torres: 2-3, 2B, HBP
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_20_wmiafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_20_vtirok_vcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Ben Badler @BenBadler Jul 19
Cubs 17-year-old SS Yeiler Peguero is MVP of today's DSL all-star game. Switch hitter signed for $250K with good bat and eye at the plate.
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Peguero was 2-2 with a sac bunt in that AS game.
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Torres is on fire
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Torres is on fire
He also has no meaningful split against L/R pitching -- .806 OPS against LH pitching; .801 against RH.
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nsbb had a picture of Peguero. He lists as 5'10" 150, but he looked smaller than that. I wonder if he'll add any vertical height? Obviously at 17, still some time to fill out some and get stronger. Most guys are as tall as they get by almost 18, but hardly unprecedented to still add an inch. Wouldn't surprise me if the "5'10"" was a little exaggerated, and he's actually more 5'8" than 5'10" now. Will be interesting to see if he can compete up the ladder.
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Torres is kind of unusual, hard to hit .319 with a 73/2 K/BB ratio. Rare to hit .319 with a 22% K-rate (per AB), and so few HR-hits to balance.
.405 BABIP this late in July is rare. I think there's a chance that he'll improve as a hitter; get stronger, add some more HR's, reduce his K's some. But may be that his numbers will come down next year, just by virtue of having a less extraordinary BABIP. May not mean he isn't progressing well.
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..... vertical height?
Is there another kind?
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I know this will sound sarcastic, but I don't mean it so. Since Craig is a professional scholar, I assume there is a technical issue.
What other kind of height is there other than vertical height?
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Heh heh, my brain is too slow. :) I'm sure I had something vague like "grow" in mind, but wanted to distinguish filling out horizontally (likely) from still growing a little bit vertically (unlikely). Anyway, I knew that before submitting for final publication, I could just send it to a jury of my peers for fine copy editing. :)
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That is disappointing. I thought we were going to learn a new scientific term, as we did in the great "titrate" dissertation of 2003.
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Zagunis: 2B, RBI
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_20_salafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Peguero: 2-4, 2B, BB, E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_20_dbrrok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Tenn rained out.
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Iowa:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_20_rreaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Torres is kind of unusual, hard to hit .319 with a 73/2 K/BB ratio. Rare to hit .319 with a 22% K-rate (per AB), and so few HR-hits to balance.
.405 BABIP this late in July is rare. I think there's a chance that he'll improve as a hitter; get stronger, add some more HR's, reduce his K's some. But may be that his numbers will come down next year, just by virtue of having a less extraordinary BABIP. May not mean he isn't progressing well.
Torres has a 73/34 K/BB ratio. He has a 73/2 K/HR ratio. He's 18 years old (same age as most HS players drafted in June), and playing in a full-season A league, where he's ranked 3rd in BA, 8th in OBP, 19th in SLG and 12th in OPS.
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Steele: 5 IP, 8 R
Happ: DNP
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_20_eugasx_vanasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Mesa:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_20_angrok_cubrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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According to an interview with Madison in Des Moines, Happ should be getting a promotion soon.
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Candelario, Panaguia to AA
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Torres: 0-4, BB, 3 K, SB, E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_21_swmafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Tenn Gm 1 -
Almora back from the Pan-Am Games: 1-3, K
Contreras: 2-3, 2B, 2 RBI
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_21_biraax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Zagunis: 3-5, 2B, 2 K
Tseng: 5-5-0-0-3-3
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_21_salafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Almora: 1-2, BB, K
Pineyro: 7-7-1-1-0-7
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_21_biraax_tenaax_2&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_21_vcurok_vtirok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
DSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_21_dcurok_dbrrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Rosscup up to Tennessee. He's got an interesting composite minor-league line for the season:
5IP, 0H, 1BB, 13 walks.
His first rehab inning (I think it was the first batter) put it in play. I think he's K'd the next 8.
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You might want to edit that post, Craig.
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Rosscup up to Tennessee. He's got an interesting composite minor-league line for the season:
5IP, 0H, 1BB, 13 walks.
His first rehab inning (I think it was the first batter) put it in play. I think he's K'd the next 8.
Won't do any good to edit. I'm copying it here.
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Jimenez: HR, RBI, K
De La Cruz: 6 IP, 1 ER
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_21_eugasx_vanasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Iowa:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_21_rreaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Mesa:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_21_cubrok_clerok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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I think Craig ment BB was batted ball.
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Back in April, in his two innings he had five K's, but he allowed both one walk and one batted ball.
After getting hurt, he's now pitched 3 perfect innings during his rehab, no walks, no hits. He's K'd the side his last two appearance, and had 2 K's and one batted-ball out during his first rehab appearance.
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Happ: DNP
Dewees: 1-4, 2B, .594 OPS
Ha: 3-2-0-0-1-3, 15-2/3 IP, 7 BB, 21 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_22_eugasx_vanasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Still no word on whether Happ is hurt or not, as far as I know.
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They are playing in Canada, maybe a passport issue?
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Stinnett has HBP, but he's gone 6 innings with 4K/0BB.
May be his first no-walk game of the year? I think almost certainly his first with as many as four more K's than walks.
One of the things that's surprised me with him, less than the high walks and control issues, has been the low K's. Good stuff but wild, that's a common profile. But I'm surprised that for a top-round-2 pick that the Cubs seemed so enthused about, that he hasn't had more K-stuff.
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Anderson Amarista, RHP IFA, who was rumored to sign with the Cubs signs with the Rockies for $600,000.
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Martinez: 4 IP, 8 R
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_22_myrafa_lynafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: DNP
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_22_swmafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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McKinney: 2-4, 2B
Johnson: 6-1/3 -6-3-3-3-8
Black: 1/3 -3-5-5-1-1
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_22_tenaax_cngaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Iowa:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_22_rreaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Pieters: 2-4, 2 SB
Marte: 6-2/3 -4-1-1-0-9, 44-2/3 IP, 14 BB, 53 K, .163 BAA
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_22_dcurok_dtirok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Was Pieters a high bonus guy? Turning 21 this fall and playing in that league seems odd
Edit: oh, converted pitcher. Nvm.
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Marte: 6-2/3 -4-1-1-0-9, 44-2/3 IP, 14 BB, 53 K, .163 BAA
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_22_dcurok_dtirok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Marte has almost as many HBP (12) as walks allowed (14). Gotta like a guy like that. Not afraid to pitch inside.
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Happ promoted to South Bend.
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Contreras: 1-3, RBI, BB, K
McKinney: 1-3, 2B, RBI, BB, 2 K
Rosscup: 1-0-0-0-1-3, 6 IP, 0 H, 16 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_23_tenaax_cngaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Iowa:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_23_rreaaa_iowaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 1-3, BB, 2 E
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_23_swmafx_souafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Myrtle Beach:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_23_myrafa_lynafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Peguero: 3-5, CS
Pieters: 4-5, 2 2B, 3 RBI, SB, CS
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_23_dtirok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL 1 :
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_23_vtbrok_vcurok_2&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL 2:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2015_07_23_vcurok_vtbrok_1
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Baez starting tonight in Arizona.
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He already has one at bat with no strike outs. Should be in Wrigley by sunday.
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With the Cubs or the Phillies?
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Down outing for Rosscup, 3 K's but also a walk.
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Two at bats and still no strike outs.
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Three at bats and no strike outs. If he can do it in Mesa, he certainly should be able to do it i wrigley.
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Heard that Happ is hitch-hiking to either South Bend or Myrtle Beach.
Can somebody out there give the kid a ride?
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Dewees: 1-3, HR, 2 RBI, BB, 2 K
Araujo: 3-2-0-0-1-5, Last 6 apps: 16-2/3 IP, 3 BB, 31 K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_23_skvasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Cease: 2-2/3 -1-0-0-3-1
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_23_wsxrok_cubrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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A Eugene, OR sports beat writer says Happ is going to South Bend.
Would be nice if he gets a stint at Myrtle Beach at some point this season.
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Torres makes the Hot Sheet:
16. Gleyber Torres, ss, Cubs
Team: low Class A South Bend (Midwest)
Age: 18
Why He’s Here: .435/.500/.696 (10-for-23), 5 RBIs, 4 2B, 1 3B, 3 RBIs, 2 BB, 4 SO, 3-for-3 SB
The Scoop: The Cubs are sure to be busy on the trade market over the next week, with Torres at the center of discussions. The Cubs aren’t looking to sacrifice any of their big league-ready youngsters who have come in and helped their team immediately, including Kyle Schwarber, whose defense behind the plate still needs time but is a ready-made masher right now. That leaves Torres as their best trade chip, and while he’s a valuable prospect, he’s certainly not untouchable. Torres is an extremely smart, high baseball IQ player who can hit, understands the strike zone and won’t have big power but has a chance to grow into 10-12 home runs with more strength projection. The same age as a 2015 high school draft pick, Torres is hitting .317/.384/.414 in 87 games, so his offensive game is well ahead of his peers at this stage. Scouts are split on whether he’s going to stay at shortstop or flip over to second base, but that bat will give the Cubs (or any other team) an above-average offensive weapon somewhere in the middle of the infield.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-hot-sheet-july-24/
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Almora: 1-3, HR, SF, 3 RBI
Contreras: 2-4, 2B, RBI, BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_24_cngaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
South Bend:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_24_souafx_wmiafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_24_vcurok_vphrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Myrtle Beach:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_24_myrafa_lynafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Baez singles in first inning off a guy with a 10.95 ERA.
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Baez singles in first inning off a guy with a 10.95 ERA.
Baby steps.
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Peguero: 2-3, BB, K, E, PO
Pieters: 3B, RBI, CS
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_24_dbwrok_dcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Edwards: 2/3 -1-3-3-3-1
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_24_iowaaa_mrbaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Dewees with his second HR in as many days.
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Happ was out with the stomach flu.
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Alzolay: 6-3-1-1-2-5
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_24_skvasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Mesa:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_24_cubrok_athrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Almora's homer:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=290588583&sid=milb
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Happ activated, Stinnett to DL.
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Alcantara hitting .210 in July after a .239 June.
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_25_iowaaa_mrbaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
McKinney: 2-4, RBI, K
Black: 1-2/3 -1-1-1-0-2, HR
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_25_cngaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Blackburn: 5-1/3 -4-1-1-1-4
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_25_cmcafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Torres: 3-4, 2B, RBI
Happ: 1-2, 2 BB
Amaya: 15th PB in 42 Games
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_25_souafx_wmiafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
DSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_25_dcurok_dbwrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_25_vphrok_vcurok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Baez: 2-3, 2B, BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_25_cubrok_brrrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Eugene:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_25_skvasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Torres: 0-4, 2 K
Happ: 2-4, 2B, K
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_26_souafx_wmiafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Myrtle Beach:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_26_cmcafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Tennessee blanked:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_26_cngaax_tenaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Jeffry Antigua must have some sort of deal with the club to stay as long as he has and pitch all over the different levels wherever they need him.
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_26_iowaaa_mrbaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Tico, is there any way to get real time measurements of batted ball velocity other than Statcast? The Eugene Emeralds tweeted that Jimenez double left his bat at 112 mph. It would be neat if they had Statcast at there minor league afflialites.
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Are you asking if data is collected via means other than stat cast systems? Or if the data is made available through means other than stat cast?
I know batted ball velocity has been around a lot longer than stat cast. Whether that's because stat cast has simply integrated data generated by other means or not, I'm not sure.
There is more advanced statistical info out there, most of it behind (substantial) paywalls through companies like Stats, Inc. That said, I'm not sure minor league batted ball data from any source is all that common or reliable.
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The Emeralds haven't tweeted about it until this game, but they did twice on Jimenez doubles. I was just wondering where a public relations guy would get that info in close to real time? I suppose it would be possible Nike loaded up the Ducks/Emeralds stadium will all kinds of interesting technology.
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Jimenez: 2-4, 2 2B, BB
Ha: 3-1-0-0-1-3
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_26_boiasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Harry Pavlidis @harrypav 2h2 hours ago
Ian Happ is apparently very hard to keep off base. There is one game of his nascent pro career where he failed to reach base. Out of 30.
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Baez: 1-3, SB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_26_brrrok_cubrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Bill Mitchell tweeted that Baez's rehab stint might be done and he'll back to Iowa.
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The Emeralds haven't tweeted about it until this game, but they did twice on Jimenez doubles. I was just wondering where a public relations guy would get that info in close to real time? I suppose it would be possible Nike loaded up the Ducks/Emeralds stadium will all kinds of interesting technology.
How would the public relations guy get the info in close to real time?
How about he is attending the game?
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Harry Pavlidis @harrypav 2h2 hours ago
Ian Happ is apparently very hard to keep off base. There is one game of his nascent pro career where he failed to reach base. Out of 30.
Sure would be nice to develop a true leadoff hitter internally. The last time the Cubs had a good leadoff hitter he helped them make it was Lofton, who helped them reach the playoffs in 2003.
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Here's some nice video of Baez from yesterday from Eric Longenhagen
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUjAGlaR2do&feature=youtu.be
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Here's some nice video of Baez from yesterday from Eric Longenhagen
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUjAGlaR2do&feature=youtu.be
Who is that guy posing as Javier Baez?
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Is he meeting the team in Iowa, or is he (hopefully) heading to Memphis for tonight's game?
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Jesse Sanchez @JesseSanchezMLB 15m15 minutes ago
#Cubs close $1M deal with Miguel Amaya, #25 on @MLB Top 30 Int’l list http://atmlb.com/1JyMP1Z . Gets $250K for school
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Any news on Eddy Julio Martinez??
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Still hasn't signed.
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Miguel Amaya, C, Panama: A defensive oriented catcher with a strong arm, Amaya could develop an average hit tool and power.
Scouting Grades: Hit: 40 | Power: 40 | Run: 20 | Arm: 60 | Field: 60
Age: 16 (March 9, 1999) – 6-foot, 160 pounds – Bats: L Throws R
Scouts have seen that Miguel Amaya can hit but he has really impressed them with his defense. Amaya “looks the part” of a catcher, calls a good game and “takes control behind the plate.” Amaya has the potential to have a “plus-arm and could be a plus defender.” The opinions vary slightly on his defense, but according to MLB.com, “it’s impossible to ignore the total package and overall potential he presents.”
Amaya has a smooth swing and hits to all fields – Estimated Signing Bonus: $1.2 million
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Who is that guy posing as Javier Baez?
Really quite a bit of difference there from what we saw of him last year.
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Olt homers tonight for third game in a row.
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I wonder if he'll be able to swing as hard this season or this month? Maybe he can hit and practice and play baseball, but may perhaps need to tone it down some and swing with less violence and less power? Not inconceivable that such a situation might actually have some developmental benefits. Bill Buckner talked about how hitting with an injured hand or injured wrist transformed him, stopped hitting for power and went for contact instead.
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Bill Buckner talked about how hitting with an injured hand or injured wrist transformed him, stopped hitting for power and went for contact instead.
When did Buckner hit for power? When was he ever NOT a contact hitter?
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By his account, this was while he was in Double-AA. Lots of guys in A-ball don't actually hit for much power, but still try.
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Baseball Reference has him hitting 7 HR in 274 PA in AA as a 19 year old (Albuquerque). He hit 6 in 194 PA in the Arizona Instructional League that same year. The next year in AAA (Spokane) he hit 3 HR in 495 PA.
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Edwards: 2-1-1-0-0-4
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_27_iowaaa_mrbaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Tseng: 7-7-3-3-1-4
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_27_cmcafa_myrafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
VSL:
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_27_vcurok_vtbrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Tenn, South Bend off.
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Apropos of nothing, my son just got home, and is raving about Edwards...said he was 96-98 consistently...
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Olt now at 284-351-510.
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Pieters: 1-2, 2 BB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_27_dcurok_dmlrok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
Dewees: 2-4, HR, 3 RBI, BB, 2 SB
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_07_27_boiasx_eugasx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
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Baez back at Iowa. Hopefully his timing isn't off a ton and he can get up to help the Cubs soon, assuming he isn't traded.
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I doubt he will be.
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Baez reaches in Iowa and has already struck out. Trade him while we can.
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Blue, speaking of Baez/trade:
1. Would you trade Baez straight-up for Ross?
2. How close do you think Baez would get to being acceptable in exchange for Ross? In other words, would you need Baez plus Underwood and Zagunis, or Baez plus Underwood and Blackburn, or Baez plus Tseng and Jiminez, or something like that, to be realistic/fair?
Don't know if it would get us anywhere. But I'd have to consider Baez for Ross to be a pretty interesting trade that I wouldn't instinctively consider to be unwise for the Cubs, if the other pieces were kind of incidental and guys I didn't care about much.
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Baez homers in 2nd AB. guess he didn't like Craig's trade proposal.
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Personally, I think Baez for Ross would be awful, and can't imagine Baez plus anything else.
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1.) I'm not in love with Ross, but zero chance he gets Ross alone.
2.) Ross is going to be expensive. I don't know if Baez, Underwood, Zagunis gets it done.
Baez HR in his second AB.
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Blue, speaking of Baez/trade:
1. Would you trade Baez straight-up for Ross?
No. Baez still has the potential of a HOF career, the kind of player who could win multiple MVP's. I am not saying it is likely, but he still has a realistic prospect of that kind of career. It doesn't seem a good idea to trade him for a pitcher who is simply a good third starter, particularly one who has a career away performance which is not even that of a good 3rd starter -- he has career hoe/away splits of 2.92/4.28.
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Because he's not going to accrue much major league service time this season, looks like Baez probably will be under control six more seasons after 2015: through 2021. That could be worth a lot.
Ross under control through 2017. Two years.
Think CBJ overstating Ross trade value just a little bit. This is a starting pitcher who throws over 40% sliders this season and last season. Very unusual for a starter and concern about this among some evaluators for arm health reasons. Keith Law said in recent chat that Ross not throwing nearly as well as did couple of seasons ago. Think his trade value will reflect that somewhat, as will getting closer to free agency. Yes, he has plenty of value but not off the charts. Would not overpay for him.
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I don't know much about Ross, other than the stats, which do not impress me in what is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the MLB. But like some of the others, I wouldn't want to see Baez traded unless we get something with similar potential, even with similar flaws.
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I'm not saying I want Ross. The slider usage is a concern and that sets him up for injury. The lack of 3rd pitch is worrisome and the control issues as well.
He's a cost controlled young starter with years of control. The rumor is that the Adres want a near Hamels package for him. I believe the Cubs traded a cost controlled young starter last year and he brought back a decent return. They are expensive.
The Padres rumored ask for Kimbrel from the Nats was 2 of Giolioto, Turner, Taylor, Ross, Lopez.
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Think Nats spit on that ask.
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I think I like Ross better than you guys. He's got a 132/3 K/HR ratio this year. Probably some luck there with the HRs, but he's a low HR guy. (0.5 HR/9 over this career.) Some of that is San Diego, but as we know that has done nothing to help Mr. Shields, who has allowed 20 HR despite the same park benefit as Ross.
High K/low HR guys have a lot of value.
I don't like Baez as well as you guys, either, since I think that guys who have so consistently swung-and-missed in the minors will continue to swing-and-miss a lot in the majors. I'm optimistic he'll be good, but there is high risk of that. And I think pretty limited likelihood of being great or super-star or any of that without the gift of hitting. Having power is super, but you don't hit lots of HR's in the majors without hitting the ball solidly on a semi-regular basis. Against big-league pitching, that's very hard to do with frequency, as Soler and Bryant and Russell have experienced this summer.
The six-years-of-control is nice. But as reb has articulated, you have to figure the first several years will likely be development years rather than production years. So, unlikely to be more than 3-4 strong-production years even if he does end up being good sometime before free agency.
So I think if they trade Baez for Ross tomorrow, I think I'd probably accept that as a reasonable risk.
All that said, I think Blue's point makes it so clear as to why I'm not too keen on these July trades. Guys who are actually worthwhile come at a very, very, very, very, very high price. I'm not sure it makes sense to overpay to the market price that it takes. If it takes Baez plus another top-10 guy and another top-20 guy to get Ross, and that's simply the way the market charges, that's why I'm not too enthused about buying.
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I think I like Ross better than you guys. He's got a 132/3 K/HR ratio this year. Probably some luck there with the HRs, but he's a low HR guy. (0.5 HR/9 over this career.) Some of that is San Diego, but as we know that has done nothing to help Mr. Shields, who has allowed 20 HR despite the same park benefit as Ross.
High K/low HR guys have a lot of value.
I don't like Baez as well as you guys, either, since I think that guys who have so consistently swung-and-missed in the minors will continue to swing-and-miss a lot in the majors. I'm optimistic he'll be good, but there is high risk of that. And I think pretty limited likelihood of being great or super-star or any of that without the gift of hitting. Having power is super, but you don't hit lots of HR's in the majors without hitting the ball solidly on a semi-regular basis. Against big-league pitching, that's very hard to do with frequency, as Soler and Bryant and Russell have experienced this summer.
The six-years-of-control is nice. But as reb has articulated, you have to figure the first several years will likely be development years rather than production years. So, unlikely to be more than 3-4 strong-production years even if he does end up being good sometime before free agency.
So I think if they trade Baez for Ross tomorrow, I think I'd probably accept that as a reasonable risk.
All that said, I think Blue's point makes it so clear as to why I'm not too keen on these July trades. Guys who are actually worthwhile come at a very, very, very, very, very high price. I'm not sure it makes sense to overpay to the market price that it takes. If it takes Baez plus another top-10 guy and another top-20 guy to get Ross, and that's simply the way the market charges, that's why I'm not too enthused about buying.
Craig, do you think that if Ross were traded his away performance for the Cubs would be any better than his career away performance to date, and if so why? And if he were playing in Wrigley Field would his home performance in Wrigley more closely resemble his career home performance in SD or his career away performance to date? One last question, do you think it would be worth trading Baez if you were to anticipate Ross's performance to be an ERA of roughly 4.28, which is his career away performance?
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It's a terrible idea to trade Baez just when his adjustments at the plate appear to be paying dividends. As Jes said, he has a chance to be a franchise-type player.
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Baez just homered again.
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Willson Contreras is having a day
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jes, yes I do think he'd do lots better than his career away performance, for several reasons.
1. I think it's normal/common that guys pitch better at home than on the road, just for familiarity reasons. Even if the home park isn't necessarily pitcher-friendly. So, I don't think that home-away is all San Diego stadium. I think he'd bring a lot of pitch-well-when-home-and-comfortable-on-home-mound wherever home is.
2. I think he's a better pitcher now than he used to be.
3. I think he's got a chance to be a significantly better pitcher future than he's been past or is present. He's got a very good arm with very, very good stuff.
4. While the Cubs defense isn't good, I think he's been effective with San Diego in spite of some very poor defense. So I think he'll benefit from some improved defense.
5. Bosio has done an excellent job with several pitchers who had variably good stuff but had inconsistency issues prior. I'd be very optimistic to see what Bosio might be able to do with Ross.
6. As Blue has mentioned, Ross has been tinkering/adding to his former repertoire. I think he may be poised to emerge as a higher-level guy future than he's been. That's some projection stuff; so just as with Baez it's all projection, which is justifiable, I read Ross as a guy who, even this many years into his career, still has some untapped potential to become better. But with very little non-injury risk to be less than good, which risk I think is very real for Baez.
I don't think it's relevant. Padres aren't going to trade Ross at a price the Cubs are willing to pay, I don't think. May be that two years from now, he'll be hurt, or as high-walk as ever, and Baez will be emerging as a force, and we'll look back and say "Man, are we glad we didn't trade Baez for Ross, can you remember when Craig actually thought that might be a fair deal, and Blue thought that while he wouldn't do it, that Baez wouldn't even be enough to get Ross straight-up?" But it may also be that two years from now, Baez will be an AAAA guy, or a .240-batting average guy with a .275 OBP in the majors who just doesn't hit the ball often enough to hit all that many HR's, and Ross is improved to one of the top ten starters in baseball, and we'll wish we'd done it. Will be fun to track. heh, heh, maybe I'll keep an eye on Ross kind of like with DeGrom! :)
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Wait Jes was making a home/split argument? DeGrom and Koufax ended that I thought?
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Right time for Javy to get hot and healthy.
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Lake has earned another shot. Will they wait until September?
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I think regular playing time is a good thing for him, so I'd vote September. Fowler is playing well, Coghlan/Denoforia is doing well Soler's defense has been bad, but I don't think they'll take time away from him.
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I would rather they not bring him up unless they are going to play him regularly. And they are not likely to do that right now.
Assuming no trades, I think that Baez and Olt will be up soon.
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Lake is certainly having a good year. I'm wondering whether he'd be an attractive component of a trade.
Supposedly Baez was something like one day from getting called up before his injury. IF that's the case, I suspect that it won't be long until he joins the Cubs if he continues to hit well and not strike out horribly. His strike out rate for the season at Iowa is 25%, the same as his full year SO rate in 2013 at High A & AA. In fact his overall numbers are really close to those of that season, but with better OBP and slightly lower SLG. His OPS for this season was .922 before today's game (in which he went 2 for 5 with 2 HR and 1 SO).
I'm guessing the Cubs are hoping that they can find a new home for Castro soon.
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Really dislike the 4-man bench. Nobody's fault--just the way game is played these days because Era of the Bullpen.
In days of the 7-man bench, Lake would be up. He deserves to be up. As the saying goes, he's "done everything they've asked him to do" when they sent him down. Yes, he'd have to battle for playing time but, for a guy in his position, better to be in big leagues.
Occasionally hear vague references to possibly increasing 25-man roster during next cba negotiations. Yes, Union would have to make trade-off concessions in other areas, but would like to see 26-man roster plus maybe one taxi squad slot that could be changed daily. More jobs for marginal guys, more fun with roster flexibility, more in-game moves maybe.
Probably won't happen but if they get to play with 87 guys in September, why not 26/27 rest of the season?
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Really dislike the 4-man bench. Nobody's fault--just the way game is played these days because Era of the Bullpen.
In days of the 7-man bench, Lake would be up. He deserves to be up. As the saying goes, he's "done everything they've asked him to do" when they sent him down. Yes, he'd have to battle for playing time but, for a guy in his position, better to be in big leagues.
Occasionally hear vague references to possibly increasing 25-man roster during next cba negotiations. Yes, Union would have to make trade-off concessions in other areas, but would like to see 26-man roster plus maybe one taxi squad slot that could be changed daily. More jobs for marginal guys, more fun with roster flexibility, more in-game moves maybe.
Probably won't happen but if they get to play with 87 guys in September, why not 26/27 rest of the season?
Our new commissioner is talking expansion. That could kick expanded rosters in the groin, too. Just make a rule limiting pitchers to 12.
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Video of Javier Baez' second HR of the night - no leg kick whatsoever.
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?sid=milb&content_id=306227283
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Who knows. The injury may have saved his career. Stranger things have happened.
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Here is his first HR - again, no leg kick, on an 0-2 pitch.
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=306148483&topic_id=18601616&c_id=&sid=milb
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Baez looks like he may have internalized the changes he has been working on. And it certainly does not appear to have limited his bat speed or power, based on these two videos. That's pretty tantalizing.
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Man, incredible how much those two swings looked the same!
Even the landing spot the same!
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I wouldn't trade Baez unless someone was willing to give up like 75 cents on the dollar of what his ceiling looks like. And no exec is going to pay that much in trade for a guy whose longest stint at the MLB level resulted in a +40% K-rate. He may be the most untradeable player in baseball.
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(I'll also say it's easy to look good on a hanging breaking ball...)
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Man, incredible how much those two swings looked the same!
Even the landing spot the same!
Ooops - thanks for catching that. Fixed now. Still no leg kick.
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Those are some pretty fun videos. It sure would be fun to see him become good. The bar used to be a little higher, but with Castro the worst hitting starter in baseball, the bar isn't that high. Baez wouldn't need to be that great to match or perhaps exceed Castro's .270 OBP or .575 OPS. So, maybe the time is right.
I wonder how Castro would fair in a utility role? Take Hererra's place?
More fun to check to the box scores with Baez back at Iowa, and perhaps Olt showing some hints of life.
Contreras has been having one of the most steady hitting seasons. 44K/38BB/34XBH/99 hits are some very interesting lines. The ranking buzz seems surprisingly quiet. Just not enough power to buzz? Just because he's got no scouting-popularity tenure? But after the season it will all come out? Or I wonder if his framing/calling/pitcher-handling just is kind of bad?
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40% K Baez matches Castro production.
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For reb's bench, I wonder if they'd have more motive to carry a 5-man bench is they had 5 subs worth carrying? If the extras were more interesting than a Baxter or Herrera or Szczur, maybe there'd be more interest. If you have Olt up and he's hitting .180 and whiffing every time with 1 HR per month, not much value. But, if he was hitting .265 with 2 HR's per month, maybe easier to do?
Maybe Cubs should be sellers. Sell Denorfia or Fowler or Coghlan, and take another look at Lake or Olt or somebody somehow.
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Thanks Ron for videos.
Isn't it funny how a simple swing, as in those homer videos, looks--well, SIMPLE--as in what's the problem, just do that.
Of course, dollars to doughnuts that new swing is opening up some other issues that will be challenging...and more adjustments to be made. And then more, just like every major leaguer.
Get him up here soon and let the big league adjustments begin. Maybe he's in a good place now. Baez demeanor/face has always been excellent, as far as I could tell.
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Sell sell sell!
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For reb's bench, I wonder if they'd have more motive to carry a 5-man bench is they had 5 subs worth carrying? If the extras were more interesting than a Baxter or Herrera or Szczur, maybe there'd be more interest. If you have Olt up and he's hitting .180 and whiffing every time with 1 HR per month, not much value.....
Okay, geez, Big Red Machine of 1975 had primary middle infield backup Darrel Chaney, who hit .219 (yes, he played more than you think--175 PAs); primary backup OFer Merv Rettenmund, who slugged .314; back-up catcher Bill Plummer (189 PAs), batted .182; and Ed "no, I didn't obstruct Carlton Fisk" Ambrister backing up OFer, who batted .185. (Okay, they had Dan Driessen). More guys of no particular note.
Point is that it's useful to have a long bench, even if that season they're not so hot.
By the way, 1975 Reds used total of 12 pitchers the entire season, one of whom threw 2.0 innings. Went with a 4-man bullpen almost all season: Eastwick, McEnaney, Clay Carroll, Borbon. Nobody else had more than 8 relief appearances that season.
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Lake... deserves to be up. As the saying goes, he's "done everything they've asked him to do" when they sent him down. Yes, he'd have to battle for playing time but, for a guy in his position, better to be in big leagues.
It might be better for Lake to be up, but it would be much better for the team for him to remain on a roster where he is getting regular playing time. For the rest of this season, he needs to be on the roster where he will be played most regularly.
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Wait Jes was making a home/split argument? DeGrom and Koufax ended that I thought?
I have repeatedly made the home/split argument in discussing Koufax. I never really really joined in any discussion of DeGrom.
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jes, yes I do think he'd do lots better than his career away performance, for several reasons.
1. I think it's normal/common that guys pitch better at home than on the road, just for familiarity reasons. Even if the home park isn't necessarily pitcher-friendly. So, I don't think that home-away is all San Diego stadium. I think he'd bring a lot of pitch-well-when-home-and-comfortable-on-home-mound wherever home is.
2. I think he's a better pitcher now than he used to be.
3. I think he's got a chance to be a significantly better pitcher future than he's been past or is present. He's got a very good arm with very, very good stuff.
4. While the Cubs defense isn't good, I think he's been effective with San Diego in spite of some very poor defense. So I think he'll benefit from some improved defense.
5. Bosio has done an excellent job with several pitchers who had variably good stuff but had inconsistency issues prior. I'd be very optimistic to see what Bosio might be able to do with Ross.
6. As Blue has mentioned, Ross has been tinkering/adding to his former repertoire. I think he may be poised to emerge as a higher-level guy future than he's been. That's some projection stuff; so just as with Baez it's all projection, which is justifiable, I read Ross as a guy who, even this many years into his career, still has some untapped potential to become better. But with very little non-injury risk to be less than good, which risk I think is very real for Baez.
I don't think it's relevant. Padres aren't going to trade Ross at a price the Cubs are willing to pay, I don't think. May be that two years from now, he'll be hurt, or as high-walk as ever, and Baez will be emerging as a force, and we'll look back and say "Man, are we glad we didn't trade Baez for Ross, can you remember when Craig actually thought that might be a fair deal, and Blue thought that while he wouldn't do it, that Baez wouldn't even be enough to get Ross straight-up?" But it may also be that two years from now, Baez will be an AAAA guy, or a .240-batting average guy with a .275 OBP in the majors who just doesn't hit the ball often enough to hit all that many HR's, and Ross is improved to one of the top ten starters in baseball, and we'll wish we'd done it. Will be fun to track. heh, heh, maybe I'll keep an eye on Ross kind of like with DeGrom! :)
My questions for you did not address Baez at all. His evaluation, or how one stacks up against another, are other questions entirely. My questions dealt exclusively with Ross, and your six numbered responses all focus much more simply on what you feel, either without true data or rational to support them, or, as in the case of the first two, when the data are actually contrary to your positions -- the difference between home/away splits for starting pitchers generally is not close to as wide as seen with Ross, and with an ERA+ this year of 103, compared to 122 last year, it would seem the believe he is "a better pitcher now than he used to be" would also seem more a result of what you would like to see than it is a result of what is there.
As to the hope Bosio would do wonders for him, or that his tinkering with his repertoire of just "think(ing) he's got a chance to be a significantly better pitcher future than he's been past or is present," it would appear even more clearly that your opinion of Ross is based more on how you hope Ross will do than anything else.
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Okay, geez, Big Red Machine of 1975 had primary middle infield backup Darrel Chaney, who hit .219 (yes, he played more than you think--175 PAs); primary backup OFer Merv Rettenmund, who slugged .314; back-up catcher Bill Plummer (189 PAs), batted .182; and Ed "no, I didn't obstruct Carlton Fisk" Ambrister backing up OFer, who batted .185. (Okay, they had Dan Driessen). More guys of no particular note.
Point is that it's useful to have a long bench, even if that season they're not so hot.
It is much easier to win with a short bench when you have four HOF position players in their prime and two more position player starters who are All-Stars.
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Patrick Mooney @CSNMooney 1m1 minute ago
For those asking, Eloy Jimenez felt some shoulder discomfort and should get a few days off before the Northwest League All-Star Game.
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As reb mentioned, you wouldn't need as many relievers if Jackson actually had gotten used, or if Neil Ramirez was either useful or used.
I don't think you'd carry rarely-used and rarely-useful relievers like that if you had bench players you thought would be more frequently useful and more frequently used. You also might not need to carry so many relievers if your 5th starter had a higher probability of pitching 6 or more innings than of getting pulled before the 5th.
Agree with reb, taking Beeler, Ramirez, and Soriano off will change the look of the bullpen. Rosscup/Schlitter/Edwards/Wada seem like internal candidates to get call ups.
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Smokies on Radio @SmokiesOnRadio 2h2 hours ago
ROSTER MOVE: IF Tommy La Stella has rejoined the @smokiesbaseball on a Major League rehab assignment. #Cubs
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La Stella first AB: reaches on catchers interference.
Quick quiz. How many times has catchers interference been called in majors so far this season?
A. 19
B. 36
C. 52
D. 94
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Baez with a SO and a BB so far tonight.
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I'll guess C, 52.
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After his walk, Javy stole 2B, which led to him scoring Iowa Cubs' 2nd run.
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I'll guess C, 52.
I would have guessed that too, but it's 19.
In 2014 , there were only 22 catchers interference called all season. 1/2 of those involved just four hitters: Goldschmidt (4), Ryan Ludwick (3), Gentry (2), Brad Miller (2).
All-time record holders is Pete Rose, with 29 in his career.
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Not sure if box score is correct (sometimes they chance and a pitcher who looked like he went 7 innings only went 5....).
But Pierce Johnson has 7 innings, 7K/2BB, 1 run, 1 flyout.
If we don't acquire some Cashner/Ross type club-control guy, and don't acquire some cheap rental vet, I wonder if Johnson might get consideration for the Beeler/Wada/Wood/Richard spot at some point? Not sure whether staying on the wildcard outskirts would make Theo more interested in bringing Johnson up, or less.
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I think that Johnson is a candidate to be brought up. Another would be Edwards. Either one should be an upgrade over Beeler and the others.
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Baez with an Ofor with three Ks.
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Not sure if box score is correct (sometimes they chance and a pitcher who looked like he went 7 innings only went 5....).
But Pierce Johnson has 7 innings, 7K/2BB, 1 run, 1 flyout.
If we don't acquire some Cashner/Ross type club-control guy, and don't acquire some cheap rental vet, I wonder if Johnson might get consideration for the Beeler/Wada/Wood/Richard spot at some point? Not sure whether staying on the wildcard outskirts would make Theo more interested in bringing Johnson up, or less.
Of course, could bring up Pierce Johnson from AA but maybe a pit stop at Iowa beforehand? Has never pitched at AAA level but, at age 24, maybe not a big deal if he's throwing ball well at whatever level. Don't think AAA is necessary in many cases.
Unless one thinks he has to dominate each level before a call-up.
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But Almora with three walks.
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I don't know about others, but if Johnson were 22, was expected to be a TOR pitcher and had never had injury background, I would hate to see him called up right now. But at age 24, with middle of rotation stuff at best, might as well. I also had no problem with them calling up Beeler or Medina.
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reb, my view is that pitchers are different from hitters. A pitcher is the initiator, and you can scout his stuff/command. His velocity/curveball/command don't really depend on the level. The plate is the same size and distance in AAA as in AA.
*Most likely Johnson's control and consistency are NOT nearly good enough for the majors. But *if* they think they are, I don't expect that some starts in AAA would change any of that. Either he's ready, or he's not.
While a pitchers ability to pitch won't change from AA to AAA, a hitter's ability to hit often does change significantly with each step, because the pitching gets better with each step. And since scouts haven't seen a guy at AA need to face AAA-caliber breaking stuff, much less big-league breaking stuff, it's harder to evaluate whether the guy's hitting ability is ready or not. And, a hitter can't practice against better pitching until he faces it. A pitcher can practice his slider on the slider as often as he wants.
Granted, the "face" issue is more complex; and requires personality evaluation. Maybe a guy had velocity/movement/curveball/command/consistency in AA, but will fall to pieces when the adrenalin rush of the big stadium hits. Or, maybe he'll throw a couple of the same pitches he threw in AA but they'll go for HR's in the majors, and then he'll fall apart and all of the command/consistency that looked fine in AA will go to pieces.
*I suspect that's very much a risk for Johnson, and even more so for Edwards. When a guy has shaky control to start with, amping up all the pressures in the majors likely exacerbates that.
But certainly there's no question but that Edwards stuff. His velocity and movement are more than plenty good enough to excel in the majors. It's the control that's obviously limiting and worrisome.
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Yeah, agree with your observations about moving up pitchers, with caveat about make-up.
If the guy has the stuff, at least decent command, and toughness, wouldn't worry much about a neat progression. In Johnson's case, however, all that has to be balanced with his fragility issue---suppose he might come down with aches and pains anywhere but hate to rely on a guy in majors and then have him come down with a "foreseeable" health issue yet again. If he was 22 and without health issue background and has the above qualities---no problem, get him up here. But, presently, perhaps have to baby him a bit.
As to Edwards, sense that he's on cusp of a big league call-up. But, I love power bullpen arms. Get him here.
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Somebody tweeted Almora isn't in the lineup in AA and Olt has been benched the last 2 days.
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Who would want Almora?
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Who would want Almora?
Quiet you.
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Alcantara is also not playing.
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I know nobody likes AA but me and Dave but we'll regret it if we ever trade him.
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I like him too Dusty. Problem is, nobody wants the guys we don't like. To get anyone of value, we're going to have to give someone up.
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I'm OK with trading him in the right deal, but I think it's the other AA that could come back to haunt us - Almora. Or is he RA now?
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Norwood up to SB, getting start.
Small Sample Happ hitting .211 there for the moment.
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The untraded Baez with a double and walk after two PA. Make us glad they didn't trade you, Javier!
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Blackburn shutout through 7, although with only 3K/2BB. Since coming off the DL, he's allowed only one earned run in four starts/20 innings. Strong grounder-guy, 10GO/2AO today. Those sorts of ground ball games seem not uncommon for him.
His ERA is now 3.42, despite his pedestrian velocity and pedestrian K-rate, largely because he's allowed only 1 HR in 68 innings.
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The untraded Baez with a double and walk after two PA. Make us glad they didn't trade you, Javier!
And 2 stolen bases.
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The untraded Baez with a double and walk after two PA. Make us glad they didn't trade you, Javier!
The problem is that the trade deadline was too early. Look how much his value has soared in the past 24 hours.
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Bloomquist will likely be moved to South Bend soon.
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Who is Bloomquist?
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http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=bloomq000cas
Slightly overqualified for short-season ball, evidently.
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http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t461&player_id=664115#/career/R/pitching/2015/ALL
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Thanks.
Any idea about what he throws?
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I think it's a baseball.
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He's amazing then.
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Bloomquist was said to be a sinker ball pitcher. I have no idea about velocity or secondary pitches. He's 21 years old and probably needs to move up the ladder ASAP.
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Thanks. I just didn't remember much talk about him post draft.
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Thanks.
Any idea about what he throws?
right-handed. ;D ;D ;D
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I agree. There are probably exceptions, but I don't think most high impact prospects should be promoted until they dominate their league, regardless of age and experience. In my opinion, more prospects are hurt by being rushed than are hurt by being promoted too slowly.