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General Category => Archives => Topic started by: Dave23 on May 12, 2011, 03:44:25 pm


Title: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Dave23 on May 12, 2011, 03:44:25 pm
Since everyone would LOVE to get Pujols, let's set the record straight...
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: CurtOne on May 12, 2011, 03:55:58 pm
There was a report coming out of Chicago today that Hendry is very upset about hug-gate, repeating his claim that he always hugs Pujols.  "I just love the guy and how he plays."  He termed the whole hullabaloo a non-story.

In a related story, maids at the Cardinals' hotel, reported finding Hendry's underwear in Albert Pujols room.  "Another non-story," claimed Hendry, "I always leave my underwear in his room.  And besides, they're not really mine.  I accidentally took Koyie's the night before."
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: guest61 on May 12, 2011, 04:11:32 pm
Part of thinks it would be awesome to take Pujols away from St. Louis but the other part of me says it probably wouldnt be the smart move.

With the reported asking price [10 /300] being as high as it is if he was to turn out to be a bust it would be crippling to your payroll for a long time.

If I were Jim Hendry and the decision was mine I honestly think I would take a pass.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: brjones on May 12, 2011, 04:16:01 pm
We need a few more options on the poll..it would be surprising if Pujols signed a contract as small as any of those listed.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Cactus on May 12, 2011, 04:17:11 pm
If today is any example, why spend all that money to lose 9-3 instead of 9-1?
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: CurtOne on May 12, 2011, 04:18:23 pm
If today is any example, why spend all that money to lose 9-3 instead of 9-1?

EL Bingo!
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: brjones on May 12, 2011, 05:02:53 pm
Ideally, the Yankees miss the playoffs, decide they have to have Pujols, and are forced to dump Teixeira for much less than he's worth when he refuses DH so they can move his salary.  Then the Cubs pick Tex up for 5 years/$23M per year (plus a couple of mid-level prospects) instead of Pujols for 8-10 years/$30M per year.

If you think contracts like Ramirez's, Fukudome's, and Zambrano's are bad, just wait to see what happens with Pujols' contract by year 6 (maybe earlier if he turns out to be a little older than his listed age).  The Cubs shouldn't go beyond 5 years on him.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: davep on May 12, 2011, 05:44:28 pm
I certainly wouldn't sign pujols for any of the terms listed above.

I think, for the money, that Prince Fielder will be a much better deal.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Deeg on May 12, 2011, 05:49:57 pm
I'd take him for the Giordano's and the Dog Style.  If it were Anchor or Sam Adams, no.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Cactus on May 12, 2011, 05:51:48 pm
I certainly wouldn't sign pujols for any of the terms listed above.

I think, for the money, that Prince Fielder will be a much better deal.
The per pound price would be less, too.  Fielder is a medical problem waiting to happen.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: JBN on May 12, 2011, 05:53:29 pm
No. Pujols will not be a Cub.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: CurtOne on May 12, 2011, 06:28:53 pm
Fielder would be much cheaper, 1M a year plus all the buffets that Jimbo goes to.  And a no hug policy, since neither can wrap up anyhow.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: JR on May 12, 2011, 06:36:11 pm
One cautionary tale I can think of for signing Pujols is Ken Griffey, Jr.  Like Pujols, Griffey was a future Hall of Famer still in the prime of his career, and giving him a 9 year deal (or whatever it was) looked like a relatively safe investment.

The Griffey contract didn't turn out completely horribly for the Reds, but it certainly didn't turn out ideally for them either.  He only played more than 140 games three times in the nine seasons he was there.  It's fair to say the vast majority of what Griffey accomplished to get into the Hall of Fame happened in Seattle.

Granted, I'd like to see the Cubs get Pujols, and even though I'll be plenty nervous and be pretty sure the latter years won't be so great, I could go along with as much as the 6 year $180 deal.  (I think 7 years is too long of a contract to give to anybody.)   
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Cactus on May 12, 2011, 07:09:25 pm
The Arizona Diamondbacks went more than $200,000,000.00 in debt when they brought in Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling to win the World Series.     They rolled the dice, got lucky, and haven't been competitive since that team was disbanded..

I could go for signing Albert Pujols if he was what it would take to put the Cubs over the top. But what other player(s) besides Albert would the Cubs have to acquire and would you be willing to pay the price?   And could you live with:  “Yeah, but you didn't win the World Series, you bought it”?

When the ultimate goal is within reach, then do whatever it takes to make it happen.  Until then, continue to build the farm system. 
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Jes Beard on May 12, 2011, 07:59:31 pm
I could go for signing Albert Pujols if he was what it would take to put the Cubs over the top.... When the ultimate goal is within reach, then do whatever it takes to make it happen.  Until then, continue to build the farm system.

That is key.

Instead of looking at how much we would like to sign Pujols of Fielder, the Cubs should first look at whether they are ready to make that kind of dip into the FA market.  Has the team progressed enough that it can clearly sustain itself for years at a strong level, and with a Pujols or Fielder being the addition which would make the team dominant.

The answer is no.

This team needs to fundamentally rebuild, and then, after two or three years, when it appeared things were beginning to jell, and the prospect pipeline was well stocked, it might make sense to look for a major FA move.

Until then, serious FA moves are far more likely to hurt than to help.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Chris27 on May 12, 2011, 08:20:54 pm
Good grief.

When you get a chance to get an all-time great, you take it.

There's absolutely no reason the Cubs can't build the farm  system with Pujols on the team.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: davep on May 12, 2011, 08:31:33 pm
In that case, we should see if we can sign Pete Rose.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: JBN on May 12, 2011, 08:32:52 pm
Quote
There's absolutely no reason the Cubs can't build the farm  system with Pujols on the team.

Yes there is. His name is Jim Hendry.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Jes Beard on May 12, 2011, 08:33:03 pm
Chris, ARod is also an all-time great.  If the Yankees offered to trade him for any five prospects in the system, their pick, would you do it?

Would you take his contract straight up?

Would you have taken it when the Rangers were desperate to unload it?
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Chris27 on May 12, 2011, 08:39:03 pm
A-Rod's 5 years older than Pujols. Allegedly. And Pujols only costs money.

Pujols alone makes you much better. Is he enough? No. But he's a better addition than any other single player. I'd rather take that shot while hoping the system improves than praying this current group can break .500.

Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Jes Beard on May 12, 2011, 08:53:25 pm
ARod is still an all-time great, which seemed to be the only criteria you mentioned, and I suspect that the Yankees right now would actually let him go without requiring any talent.  ARod for Koyie Hill straight up might well do it.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Chris27 on May 12, 2011, 08:54:45 pm
A-Rod is not an option. Let's just stick with the one guy we're talking about.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: JBN on May 12, 2011, 09:02:24 pm
Even with Pujols, this team would still suck. They have too many other holes like in LF, SS, 2B, C,  4 starters, a coaching staff, an entire bench.

It would be like 1987 all over again with Andre Dawson.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: CurtOne on May 12, 2011, 09:05:29 pm
JB, you give them waaaaaaaaaaaaaay too much credit.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: JBN on May 12, 2011, 09:16:50 pm
You're probably right. They need some new vendors as well.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Jes Beard on May 12, 2011, 09:18:14 pm
A-Rod is not an option. Let's just stick with the one guy we're talking about.

So your "he's an all-time great" criteria really was not one you would actually use.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Chris27 on May 12, 2011, 10:07:21 pm
Is there nothing you won't parse to the greatest degree possible?

I mean, what's the point of doing so?
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Jes Beard on May 12, 2011, 10:37:42 pm
Is there any point in insisting that the standard you used is not one you really meant?  Is it "parsing" to point out that you did not really mean what you said?  Or should we simply ignore what you say because you don't mean it?  And how should we distinguish when you do mean it and when you don't?  Or should we simply assume you never mean it?  Instead of being defensive, and trying yourself to parse things, such as "ARod is not an option. Let's just stick with the one guy we're talking about," why not just acknowledge you overstated your position, or clarify what you in fact meant?

I really was not trying to play a game of "gotcha," but instead trying to get you to clarify just what your position was, or what your criteria for supporting such a move might be.... because the one you offered clearly was NOT one you really meant, as Dave also pointed out when he sarcastically suggested that perhaps we should sign Pete Rose (or perhaps Dave wasn't being sarcastic and was simply trying to "parse to the greatest degree possible."

But perhaps it was not really worth the effort on my part to try to determine what your criteria might be in supporting something like signing Pujols.  If you are not able to articulate it, it likely is not going to be very convincing.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Chris27 on May 12, 2011, 11:09:21 pm
Well, I have my answer even if indirectly.

I'd guess my point was obvious to anyone on planet Earth. Are you with us, Jes? Hello?

Because it's really tough to figure out why someone would want Albert Pujols on their team. A real head-scratcher there.

You set up a straw-man that had nothing to do with Pujols, and when I rightly ignored it, you pretend I didn't back my opinion. Rodriguez and Pujols have nothing to do with one another.



Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Jes Beard on May 13, 2011, 07:48:23 am
Yes, Chris, ARod and Pujols DO have something to do with each other.  Just as Dave's Rose example does.

All three are "all-time greats."  That was the only criteria you gave.  There is no "straw man" which either Dave or I set up.  We used YOUR criteria to point out that YOUR criteria made little sense and likely does not even reflect your actual thinking.

But instead of clarifying your thinking or acknowledging that you did not really mean what you wrote, you start talking about a "straw-man" and attacking me as not being from "planet Earth" or parsing your comments too much.

Chris, all I am trying to do is to understand what you meant or what your criteria would be for wanting to sign a Pujols.  They obviously are not as you expressed them.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Chris27 on May 13, 2011, 09:09:01 am
I assumed people could figure out that I wasn't talking about players who are:

A) Signed to enormous contracts

B) Well past their primes

C) 70

My apologies. Next time I'll list every current, former and deceased all-time great so there's no confusion.

Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: JR on May 13, 2011, 09:19:41 am
Good poll.  There are 7 posters who would offer him some kind of huge contract, and there are 7 posters who wouldn't offer him more than stale pizza and warm beer, with most of them not even wanting to offer him that.

I'm actually kind of surprised it's right at 50-50 whether or not to make him an offer.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: brjones on May 13, 2011, 09:31:25 am
I'm kind of surprised too.  A couple months ago over at the old board, we talked about Pujols and it seemed like only a couple of us had any concerns about giving him whatever he wants. 

I don't want Pujols for anything close to the $300 million he's going to ask for.  But if he'd accept that 5 year deal, I'd think it would be a no-brainer to sign him.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Jes Beard on May 13, 2011, 09:35:24 am
I assumed people could figure out that I wasn't talking about players who are:

A) Signed to enormous contracts

B) Well past their primes

C) 70

My apologies. Next time I'll list every current, former and deceased all-time great so there's no confusion.




In other words you assumed people would have the sense to ignore what you said and to realize you did not actually mean it.  Next time I will try to remember to do that.

Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: CurtOne on May 13, 2011, 09:36:01 am
Pujols in this lineup would set a career record for walks.  Why would anyone pitch to him?
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Reb on May 13, 2011, 09:41:36 am
Hey, not only would I go 7/210, but I would give Pujols 8/240 if it took that to get it done.

This guy is an altogether different category, and I would put him in the Ted Williams/Barry Bonds were-really-good-at-age 39 category.

I guess the $300 number has scared some folks off, but let's not lose sight of the fact this guy is a legendary-type player.

I'd rather have Pujols at 8/240 than Fielder at 8/180 (the Teixiera deal as a comp).
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Cactus on May 13, 2011, 09:53:56 am
From an ESPN story on Lance Berkman doing so well

The big start prompts discussion that Berkman could be the Cardinals' first baseman next year. Pujols will be a free agent for the first time in his career after rejecting a multiyear deal that included a percentage of ownership at the start of free agency, and the Cardinals have a second challenge to a top-heavy payroll with pitcher Chris Carpenter also due for free agency.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Jes Beard on May 13, 2011, 10:18:58 am
but let's not lose sight of the fact this guy is a legendary-type player.

Let's also not lose sight of the fact that any resources spent on Pujols could not be spent elsewhere, that the later (and quite possibly even middle) years of the contract would almost certainly end up with him seriously overpaid, and that the Cubs are a long way from being a team where Pujols would get them to the top, and forget about putting them over the top.

If the Cubs had begun rebuilding a few years back, and were a solid team at this point, then Pujols might make sense, but this team is crap, and has a long way to go before adding Pujols would make them a truly strong team.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Chris27 on May 13, 2011, 10:19:55 am
would have the sense to ignore what you said and to realize you did not actually mean it.

It's called common sense, Jes.

But if you don't have any of that and want to pretend that Pete Rose is someone I would currently like to sign, by all means knock yourself out. No really, knock yourself out.

And before you parse that, yes, I mean literally hit yourself with something.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Jes Beard on May 13, 2011, 11:25:08 am
Chris, I am not the one who mentioned Rose.  Dave did.  I specifically mentioned ARod, who is still very productive and is an all-time great.

I made what I believe was a reasonable attempt to get you to clarify what you had said, without being absurd.  Instead of making any effort to clarify, you have chosen to attack, and at times (as with your Rose comment above) to attack based on things others wrote, not me.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: JR on May 13, 2011, 12:15:51 pm
You know, it's OK if you let the other guy have the last word.  Just sayin'.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: FITS on May 13, 2011, 01:24:16 pm
^^^ What JR said....  :)

Besides, I like br's scenario....

Ideally, the Yankees miss the playoffs, decide they have to have Pujols, and are forced to dump Teixeira for much less than he's worth when he refuses DH so they can move his salary.  Then the Cubs pick Tex up for 5 years/$23M per year (plus a couple of mid-level prospects) instead of Pujols for 8-10 years/$30M per year.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Robb on May 13, 2011, 01:46:28 pm
You can't say the Cubs wouldn't contend with Pujols in the line-up.  You don't know that.  A true middle of the order hitter makes everyone around him better.  The 1 and 2 hitters see more fastballs, the hitters behind him are hitting with a man on base more than 40% of the time.  He also plays excellent defense.  Winning baseball is about talent but it is also about confidence.  Pujols would bring that.  I'm not saying signing him guarantees a WS ring but for those who automatically assume his presence wouldn't be a game changer, there's no way to know that.  All that being said, I wouldn't give him any more than 6 years.  Those who mention players doing well into their late 30's aren't figuring in PED's.  Since baseball finally starting testing for real you see players fading in their mid-30's pretty much on cue.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: jacey1 on May 13, 2011, 02:10:07 pm
I feel soooo sorry for Jes' wife. Chris, he would argue with a door knob
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: StrikeZone on May 13, 2011, 02:11:11 pm
That's because a door knob could go either way.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Jes Beard on May 13, 2011, 02:50:23 pm
You can't say the Cubs wouldn't contend with Pujols in the line-up.  You don't know that.  A true middle of the order hitter makes everyone around him better.  The 1 and 2 hitters see more fastballs, the hitters behind him are hitting with a man on base more than 40% of the time.  He also plays excellent defense.  Winning baseball is about talent but it is also about confidence.  Pujols would bring that.  I'm not saying signing him guarantees a WS ring but for those who automatically assume his presence wouldn't be a game changer, there's no way to know that.  All that being said, I wouldn't give him any more than 6 years.  Those who mention players doing well into their late 30's aren't figuring in PED's.  Since baseball finally starting testing for real you see players fading in their mid-30's pretty much on cue.

Yea, signing ARod did wonders for Texas, didn't it?

While you are right that you can not be certain the Cubs would not contend with Pujols, if you are going to sink $30M a year of a team's budget into a player, you need more than the possibility they would not contend if they sign him.  You need a near certainty that the addition of that kind of talent would be enough to make the team a truly dominant one, and one reason you need that is because it results in pretty serious limitations in what else a team can do after that much of its budget is committed.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Robb on May 13, 2011, 04:19:01 pm
We're talking about a once in a generation player here.  The other issue is the fact you are removing him from the Cardinal's roster as well.  Take Pujols out of the middle of their line-up the past 8 years and how good would they be?  The cubs have a better starting staff than the Rangers could have dreamed of when Arod was signed and a better bullpen too.  This team isn't that far removed from contending with just a couple of good moves.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Jes Beard on May 13, 2011, 05:02:20 pm
Robb, as good as Pujols, as a firstbaseman, who will be 32 before the start of next season, is nowhere nearly as valuable as ARod was as a 24 year old SS.

If Pujols is just the age he is reported to be, he will be 32 in January.  Long term deals with 32 year old players out to break the bank just don't seem to make sense to me.

One interesting thing about Pujol's performance this year is that while his performance is well off his career norm (of a career 171 OPS+), he may be performing poorer while getting better pitches to hit.

For the last three years, Pujols has had 34, 44, and 38 IBBs, and has had at least 22 every season since 2005, but this year he has one.  Only one.   His overall walk rate is also down sharply.  For his career, he has walked 13.4% of his trips to the plate,  last year it was 14.7%, and in 2009 it was 16.4%.  This year it has been 10.2%.

It would appear that teams are no longer pitching around him anything close to the way they have in the past, and there is no reason to think that he has expanded his strike zone.  But his performance is more than 250 OPS points below his career average.

And even if he recovers this season, the tenth year of his ten year contract, the team that signs him will be paying a 42 year old player.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: CurtOne on May 13, 2011, 05:32:48 pm
Somebody mentioned the other day how signing one guy, like Neifi, to get an inside track on another often backfires.

Information seems to confirm that the Cards got burned that way with Holliday to an extent.   They wanted Holliday, that's not the issue, but they thought giving him big money to keep him would prove to Pujols that they were serious and from somewhere in space they had the honest belief that he would give a huge, huge discount to stay in St. Louis.  From what some folks have shared, I think that they were shocked that he so firmly and decidedly turned down their spring offer.  I don't think they got the info from Albert or his agent, but they really thought the numbers they had concocted would do the trick.  Now they are in a bind.  Do they save any for Wainwright?  How high do they go...they are very conscious of the fact that they still have to find more pieces, especially since Freese's injury proneness, Molina's age, Theriot's defense, and Franklyn's complete collapse have them scratching their heads.

I still think that Albert resigns with them but at a rate that really cripples them...no matter, Robb, how much he improves others around him.  And I don't really disagree with you there, except that I still don't think on an everyday basis he'd inspire Koyie, Fonzie, and the Byrd.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Robb on May 13, 2011, 06:26:40 pm
Having Albert hit behind Barney and Castro will effect them.  Having him talk hitting with them will help them.  From all reports he is a terrific teammate.  Much like Maddux was to pitchers.  Byrd is only signed for one more year.  He might even be gone this year.  I'm not worried about the impact of Pujols on guys like Byrd.  I would like to see what Brett Jackson, Castro, Barney and Soto do in a line-up anchored by one of the greatest hitters of all-time.  It is laughable to compare him to Soriano.  He has always had excellent discipline, he plays 1B so even if he gets a little slower he isn't going to hurt the defense either.  Like I said, I wouldn't sign the guy for 8 years at 30 per but I would jump at 6 years at even 30 per.  As far as the load on payroll.  The Cubs aren't the Cardinals. The increased gate from a Pujols signing, the increased TV ratings, the increased jerseys and other marketing opportunities form his signing would make his true cost much less than 30 mil to the team.  Would you sign Pujols for 6 years if the impact to the team was 20 mil?  I would in a heartbeat. 
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Robb on May 13, 2011, 06:29:37 pm
Come on Jesbeard, you are taking 6 weeks out of a season to indicate some sort of sudden decline in Pujols abilities?  Talk about small sample sizes.  Let's ignore the rest of his career, let's even ignore the last three years and focus in on 6 weeks because it helps your argument.  I have never suggested a ten year contract or even eight.  If he holds to that then I have no interest.  If you can pay a little more per year and get him for less years though you would be stupid not to do it. 
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Chris27 on May 13, 2011, 07:23:24 pm
As a bonus, stealing Pujols out from under the Cardinals would make any mention of the Brock trade moot forever.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: CurtOne on May 13, 2011, 08:27:15 pm
I don't think I ever compared him to Soriano, but then maybe you weren't directing that at me.

You make some valid points about the kids and learning from Albert, though not all the kids at St. Louis have seemingly picked up a whole lot.  I'm still more concerned with investing so much in one player.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: guest61 on May 13, 2011, 08:35:20 pm
I just dont think it's wise to make such a commitment to one player.

For 30 million a year or whatever in this market we could probably get a 1st baseman,2nd baseman,starting pitcher and a reliever or two.

We'd be a lot closer to being good if we did that than we would if we committed all that to one player and a player that might be 34-35 at that.

Im definitely not gonna **** at all if we sign Pujols right out from under St. Louis but I'd be willing to bet every dime I have that whoever does sign him ends up regretting it in the end.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Jes Beard on May 13, 2011, 08:45:53 pm
I don't think I ever compared him to Soriano....

I don't think anyone compared him to Soriano.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Jes Beard on May 13, 2011, 08:48:10 pm
For 30 million a year or whatever in this market we could probably get a 1st baseman,2nd baseman,starting pitcher and a reliever or two.  We'd be a lot closer to being good if we did that than we would if we committed all that to one player and a player that might be 34-35 at that.

We would be a lot better, for a lot longer, if we didn't look at filling four positions with expensive FA players and instead rebuilt with prospects.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: CurtOne on May 13, 2011, 08:48:28 pm
LOL  Jiggy, you hit one idea that I've had all along.  I think it would be a BAD baseball move to sign him to that kind of money, but it would be worth TWICE that just to watch some of these dumba$$ Cardinal fans around here choke on their spit.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Jes Beard on May 13, 2011, 08:51:45 pm
LOL  Jiggy, you hit one idea that I've had all along.  I think it would be a BAD baseball move to sign him to that kind of money, but it would be worth TWICE that just to watch some of these dumba$$ Cardinal fans around here choke on their spit.

And it would be the height of foolishness to cripple your own organization just to irritate fans of another team, particularly when who before the contract would be over, they would be laughing at you again.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Jes Beard on May 13, 2011, 08:57:55 pm
Come on Jesbeard, you are taking 6 weeks out of a season to indicate some sort of sudden decline in Pujols abilities?  Talk about small sample sizes.  Let's ignore the rest of his career, let's even ignore the last three years and focus in on 6 weeks because it helps your argument.

No.  It is not cherry picking to find stats to support a position.  It is looking at current stats to help REACH a position.  Granted, there is no way the Cubs can even talk with Pujols now, and by the time they could, there will be a full season of stats there.  If he again puts up a season with an OPS+ at his career levels, then the first six weeks are meaningless.  If his full season ends up anywhere close to where he is now, then I would hope that even your ardor, as well as that of the Cub fans who want to sign Pujols primarily to irritate Cardinal fans, would have faded.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: brjones on May 13, 2011, 08:59:38 pm
I guess the accuracy of the Soriano comparison depends a lot on what you think Pujols will end up making.  Sure, the 5 year deal in the poll isn't going to be anywhere close to as bad as Soriano.  If he stays reasonably healthy, the worst case scenario is it turns out to be as "bad" as the Dempster and Ramirez contracts have been...worth it for the first half, but a bit of overpayment for a productive player for the second half.

But Pujols' starting point seems to be 10 years, $300 million.  If that's what he wants, I don't think you're going to get that down much lower than 8/$250 million with a lot of clauses (no trade, vesting options, etc.).  Even Pujols is going to be a Soriano-like albatross on the back end of that deal...I mean, look at ARod.  He signed his most recent contract at about the same age Pujols will be this offseason.  And 4 years in, that contract looks like it'll be entering Soriano territory by 2012 or 2013.

I'm hopeful that something will materialize that doesn't include Pujols or Fielder (my Teixeira fantasy?  Dodgers forced to trade Ethier because of money?).  I'd really prefer to stay away from both first basemen...Pujols because of the cost for his decline years, and Fielder because I don't think he's going to age well at all.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: StrikeZone on May 13, 2011, 09:08:21 pm
Signing Prince Fielder would be monumentally stupid.

He's already DH-bad in the field.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: guest61 on May 13, 2011, 09:17:19 pm
I dont think signing Prince would be wise either.

It wouldnt surprise me at all to see him eat his way out of baseball.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Jes Beard on May 13, 2011, 09:41:40 pm
Prince Fielder is only 27.  His father, Cecil Fielder, was putting up an OPS+ better than the league average thru age 33... but after age 27 Cecil Fielder's OPS+ was only better than 117 once, for a 124, after having an OPS+ of 167 at age 26 and 133 at age 27.

Of course, Prince Fielder appears to be a bit better hitter than his father was... and is much heavier.

Even without the added weight, Cecil Fielder's productive longevity may be the best clue to Prince Fielders... and if that is the case, I wouldn't count on much more than another year or two for Prince Fielder as a premier hitter, and then another 3-4 as a decent hitter.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Ray on May 13, 2011, 10:32:32 pm
LOL  Jiggy, you hit one idea that I've had all along.  I think it would be a BAD baseball move to sign him to that kind of money, but it would be worth TWICE that just to watch some of these dumba$$ Cardinal fans around here choke on their spit.

agree with this...i would so be lurking some card boards, though i have no idea where they even would be.

The sad thing is is when people talk about dividing the money up to get a 15m player, maybe a 10m guy, and a 5m guy...money doesn't go anywhere near as far as it used it...i'm amazed at the guys getting in the 10m a year range...look at what we signed Pena for after all.  I understand it was a calculated risk, but it was still absurd...

if injuries were out of the equation, i could see spending 30m over 7 years on a guy like pujols, but not 10 years.  And i go no where near Fielder. 

If it was up to me, and i realize its not...well, i just checked the potential 2012 free agents and i have no idea what i would do if it was up to me.  It is quite underwhelming...Maybe overpaying years wise for pujols is better than overpaying crap, because at least you get a guy your going to enjoy watching for a while.  And if we let Aramis go, we have a huge hole at 3b.  Wilson Betimit, maybe?  The thing about Pujols is he is a guy that makes a lineup look good by himself, and the cubs have lacked that for so long. 

Ideal scenario to me is we trade some a-minus to b level prospects for arb eligible hitters that are too expensive for their small market teams...I actually wouldn't mind one of kc's many first basemen...maybe trade pitching and some other type of needed prospect to kc for one of their many first basemen and alex gordon.  Or, wasn't there a pretty decent first base prospect stuck behind Votto in AAA?

I know i just posted a lot of jumbled crap, but its mostly me thinking out loud trying to kill boredom...just wondering what is feasible. 
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Robb on May 14, 2011, 04:57:28 am
I guess the accuracy of the Soriano comparison depends a lot on what you think Pujols will end up making.  Sure, the 5 year deal in the poll isn't going to be anywhere close to as bad as Soriano.  If he stays reasonably healthy, the worst case scenario is it turns out to be as "bad" as the Dempster and Ramirez contracts have been...worth it for the first half, but a bit of overpayment for a productive player for the second half.

But Pujols' starting point seems to be 10 years, $300 million.  If that's what he wants, I don't think you're going to get that down much lower than 8/$250 million with a lot of clauses (no trade, vesting options, etc.).  Even Pujols is going to be a Soriano-like albatross on the back end of that deal...I mean, look at ARod.  He signed his most recent contract at about the same age Pujols will be this offseason.  And 4 years in, that contract looks like it'll be entering Soriano territory by 2012 or 2013.

I'm hopeful that something will materialize that doesn't include Pujols or Fielder (my Teixeira fantasy?  Dodgers forced to trade Ethier because of money?).  I'd really prefer to stay away from both first basemen...Pujols because of the cost for his decline years, and Fielder because I don't think he's going to age well at all.

I don't have ardor towards signing Pujols, I just think the Cubs would be nuts not to sign the guy to a 5 or 6 year contract if he would accept it.  If his starting point is 10 years or even 8 then forget it.  That's pretty much it.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: buff on May 14, 2011, 07:52:01 am
I would do a 6 year 200 million dollar deal with 2 or 3 option years that can vest automatically with performance. I think that he is a player in like Sosa can make the team better. 

We tried the spread it around approach before and it cost us a HOF pitcher.  Let's not do it again.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Jes Beard on May 14, 2011, 08:01:51 am
I know we are all just dreaming about what we would do with other people's money, but even then, wouldn't it be a good idea to wait to the end of the year to see how Pujols did for the year before deciding how much of that fantasy cash we would want to spend?

If Pujols for the full season puts up numbers n line with what he has produced so far, wouldn't that effect how much some of you think should be offered and for how long?
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Ray on May 14, 2011, 12:00:47 pm
I've actually been wondering the exact same thing, about how much it would affect his value.  My fear is he does continue have the down year, the card's sign him to a not so crippling for them contract, and then he returns to his normal self while letting them sign better players to go around him.  I think a down year makes it more likely he resigns with them.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Jes Beard on May 14, 2011, 12:12:12 pm
I agree.  And if for the entire season he puts up an OPS+ of about 115 (which is roughly were he is now), I would hope no one (here) would even want a six year contract with him, unless it was not guaranteed and he could be cut at any time without an obligation for anything more than that season.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Robb on May 14, 2011, 04:15:07 pm
So the harm in talking about Pujols to the Cubs right now is? 

If you think it is early to worry about it then stay out of the topic.  Otherwise, I'm not too worried that our speculation/opinion on the matter is really going to effect the situation.  See, that's what we do here. 
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Jes Beard on May 14, 2011, 04:27:21 pm
Did anyone say there was any harm in talking about it?  I don't think I even recall anyone saying there was harm in pointing out that he will be 32 before the start of next year and his performance this year has been rather pedestrian.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Robb on May 14, 2011, 04:56:40 pm
wouldn't it be a good idea to wait to the end of the year to see how Pujols did for the year before deciding how much of that fantasy cash we would want to spend?

Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: BearHit on May 14, 2011, 04:57:46 pm
Jim Hendry prefers that you don't discuss the HUGS - otherwise it is okay to talk about
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: Santo4HofF on December 13, 2011, 03:32:12 pm
About time to bury this topic.
Title: Re: Pujols to the Cubs?
Post by: JR on December 13, 2011, 03:36:46 pm
I forgot this topic was even here.  Oh well, so much for this fantasy.

(http://www.bleachernation.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/albert-pujols-the-decision-bleacher-nation1.jpg)