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General Category => Archives => Topic started by: mO on May 21, 2019, 10:27:21 am
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discuss
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Savermetrics
@Savermetrics
Brennan Milone and Jonathan French attended a pre-draft workout with the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field.
DJ Herz attended a pre-draft workout with the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field.
Mason Auer, Jordan Beck, Jason Hodges, DJ Jefferson, Sebastian Keane, Brooks Lee, Trevor McDonald, Chris Mokma, Quinn Priester, Ryan Ritter, Glenn Santiago, Noah Soles, Brandon Sproat, and Yordys Valdes were also invited to attend a pre-draft workout at Wrigley Field.
Cubs Prospects - Bryan Smith
@cubprospects
Great follow around draft season: @Savermetrics. Recently these 3 tweets about high school guys hosted in Wrigley caught my eye. Last year, guys like Roederer and Franklin were brought in pre-draft, so this is valuable info to file away if you’re handicapping possible Cubs picks.
Cubs Prospects - Bryan Smith
@cubprospects
Particularly interesting to see Brennan Malone mentioned, as he’s usually mocked to be drafted before the Cubs pick (and McLeod and Co don’t generally draft HS pitching in the first round).
Savermetrics
@Savermetrics
Julio Cajigas attended a pre-draft workout with the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field.
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https://theathletic.com/1001477/2019/05/30/making-of-a-first-round-pick-why-pitcher-quinn-priester-might-be-the-wild-card-in-this-years-mlb-draft/
Mooney with article about a Chicago high school pitcher. I'm really starting to think that a high school arm could be a real possibility in the first round. Priester is usually mocked well before the Cubs pick.
Fangraphs most recent mock has the Cubs taking J.J. Goss, HS RHP out of Texas. Malone, who the Cubs worked out at Wrigley goes the pick after. Daniel Espino is another HS RHP who has a big fastball who could go around when the Cubs pick. If Kody Hoese falls to around the Cubs he could be an option, Esptein was at his conference tourney.
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College bats I hope the Cubs are considering, in no particular order...
Thomas Dillard - Ole Miss
Grae Kessinger - Ole Miss
Parker Phillips - Austin Peay
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Just take a HS pitcher with a big arm. This whole soft-tossing crafty college pitcher approach has failed miserably.
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Looking back at our 2015 draft...that must have been some drinking binge the night before! Picking prospects while blindfolded would have likely had better results.
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I would love to see the Cubs take Ryan Zeferjahn in the 2nd round or early Day 2.
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Fangraphs did a 2 round mock and had Graeme Stinson going to the pirates in round 2. He’d be an interesting, but risky pick. He was widely considered the best college pitcher and then got hurt with an undisclosed injury and just recently started throwing on the side.
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What time does draft start?
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7 PM eastern time for round one.
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Here's hoping the Cubs draft Craig Kimbrel tonight.
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Hoese looking like he could fall to the Cubs.
Edit: Hoese to the Dodgers.
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Not the first time the Cubs would get Hoesed in the draft.
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cubs are up!!
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Go with Brennan Malone here.
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Nobody getting the pick early
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Jensen was a late riser.
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Uhhh....hm....
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Passan tweeted out Matthew Allen who had a $4 million price tag to the Cubs.
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Possible they take Allen with the next pick and go underslot with Jensen?
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Keith Law had Jensen at #35, so not far off.
35. Ryan Jensen, RHP, Fresno State -- A 6-foot right-hander, Jensen has one of the biggest fastballs in the class, regularly working at 97-99, with a lightning-quick arm, albeit with a long arm action and lack of a plus second pitch
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Allen would eat up all the Cubs draft pool, so I doubt it.
For Jensen, I like the fastball velocity and it is supposed to have good movement. The lack of a secondary pitch for a short righty is concerning.
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Piece on Jensen’s most recent start.
https://www.fresnobee.com/sports/college/mountain-west/fresno-state/article231061763.html
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And my former player, Ethan Small, goes to Milwaukee...fml...
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Passan reporting Allen’s demands where too high for the Cubs.
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Feh, another reach for a mediocre college arm whose upside is middle relief. This organization's drafting really needs a complete overhaul where pitching is concerned.
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People thought Hoerner was a reach last year. I’m concerned, but dude throws hard and the breaking ball might be better than what it is reported as.
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When was the last time the Cubs hit with one of these patented overdraft college arms? Their track record speaks for itself, and Jensen fits it perfectly.
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I wonder if the Cubs are just tired of having to buy their closers or trade prospects for them and view him strictly as an RP prospect. I wouldn’t mind it if they developed him that way.
Actually if he’s really flashing that kind of consistent velocity, he might even wind up being a guy that can help us this season.
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People thought Hoerner was a reach last year. I’m concerned, but dude throws hard and the breaking ball might be better than what it is reported as.
Take him in the 2nd round then.
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Who did we select?
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Keith Law had Jensen at #35, so not far off.
35. Ryan Jensen, RHP, Fresno State -- A 6-foot right-hander, Jensen has one of the biggest fastballs in the class, regularly working at 97-99, with a lightning-quick arm, albeit with a long arm action and lack of a plus second pitch
Keith Law also had Jensen going #30 overall to the Yankees in his mock draft. This doesn't sound like all that big of a reach to me, although time will obviously tell. You can't teach velocity.
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Most lists had him in the 90-100 range.
Whether he was a little reach or a huge reach, this FO is obviously very bad at assessing college pitchers. Wish they'd bark up a different tree.
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FWIW (not much to some, clearly):
Sahadev Sharma
@sahadevsharma
McLeod said Cubs are looking forward to getting Jensen signed and in their Pitch Lab. Said pitching coord. Brendan Sagara was in draft room and watched a lot of tape, Jensen was one of the ones he was most excited about. Here's what's happening in that lab.
https://theathletic.com/852141/2019/03/06/whats-cooking-in-the-cubs-pitch-lab-come-with-me-and-youll-see/?amp#click=https://t.co/SUY3iPHuim
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Jesse Rogers
@ESPNChiCubs
J.McLeod admits draft pick Ryan Jensen is the kind of player the team may not have taken in the past.Not prototypical at just 6 ft ft though he throws upper 90's. @keithlaw had him ranked 32 so not a reach according to him.They liked what he was able to do 'wire to wire' this yr
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Fangraphs
#55 Ryan Jensen, 6-0 180, 21.5 years old, FB 70/70, SL 45/50, CH 45/50, CMD 40/50 Sits 93-96,T 99. ATH ++
Sahadev Sharma
@sahadevsharma
McLeod said Cubs are looking forward to getting Jensen signed and in their Pitch Lab. Said pitching coord. Brendan Sagara was in draft room and watched a lot of tape, Jensen was one of the ones he was most excited about. Here's what's happening in that lab
Jesse Rogers
@ESPNChiCubs
J.McLeod admits draft pick Ryan Jensen is the kind of player the team may not have taken in the past.Not prototypical at just 6 ft ft though he throws upper 90's.
@keithlaw
had him ranked 32 so not a reach according to him.They liked what he was able to do 'wire to wire' this yr
Fangraphs Draft ChatGiants fan
10:00 Why’d the Cubs reach on Jensen?Eric A Longenhagen
10:01 wouldn't consider it a reach. elite fastball velo+mvmt combo. Size and secondary depth are questions but the kid has carved most of the year
Kiley McDaniel
10:01 and fits modern baseball with very good short burst characteristics
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McLeod's basing the idea that Jensen's not a reach on Keith Law's ranking?
Has Law been told that Vogelbach's moved out of rookie ball and is on pace for 39 homers with the Mariners?
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Keith Law doesn't consider it a reach. I would assume McLeod doesn't consider it a reach based off of the Cubs rankings.
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What does your heart tell you?
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After reading the 2018 draft thread to trust McLeod.
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Some of these scouting reports have made it sound like there wasn’t much beyond his fastball that made him draft worthy. The guy went 12-1 with a 2.88 ERA this year with a 4:1 K:BB ratio over 100 IP. You don’t do that with a fastball with fringy command and little else. He was a legit Friday night starter for them this season.
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There’s probably a decent chance Jensen will be pitching at some point tonight against Stanford on ESPNU
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2nd Round #64, Chase Strumpf 2b,UCLA
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Fangraphs
#51,Hit 30/55, Game Power 25/40, Raw Power 50/50, Speed 50/50, Field 45/50, Arm 50/50
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Strumpf was BA’s 42nd ranked player.
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And you can watch Strumpf on ESPN2 right now.
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Hits a 3 run HR after being drafted.
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Every boy's dream. You've been drafted #1! Bad news, it's the Baltimore Orioles.
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BA says Jensen has a good slider too:
While Jensen stands at just 6 feet, 180 pounds, he has big-time stuff with a fastball that’s been as high as 98 mph. The pitch has plenty of life in the form of arm-side run and natural sink, and he pairs it with an impressive slider that scouts say flashes plus at times. He has also shown a changeup that has solid arm-side movement, but he’s primarily pitched off of his fastball/slider combination.
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There’s probably a decent chance Jensen will be putching at some point tonight against Stanford on ESPNU
Hope not—on two days rest. Threw 7.2 inninigs on Friday and 110 pitches.
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Yeah I would hope not too, but their coach says today would be a throw day for him and he might have 30-40 pitches in him.
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Lee Leidig is an associate scout with Cubs and he seems to have some connection with Jensen. It wouldn’t shock me if the Cubs have some data that they think can improve the breaking ball. This isn’t the usual Cubs pick an average fastball pitcher. This kids fastball is elite.
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Add Sickels to those who thinks Jensen wasn’t a reach.
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Passan reporting Allen’s demands where too high for the Cubs.
Yes, Passan says Cubs were “extremely close” to taking Allan. Can’t get too much closer than that.
Passan:
The Chicago Cubs were indeed extremely close to taking HS right-hander Matthew Allan, but signability concerns pushed them to Fresno State right-hander Ryan Jensen, sources tell ESPN.
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Well, one of these days the Cubs will be a big market club that can spend in the draft.
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Strumpf was a pretty shiny prospect heading into the season, but took a huge step backwards - sophomore year stellar, junior year mediocre. Not much glove and can't run, so he's a hit or bust proposition, pretty much. A LIAB pick to be sure - gambling that he finds whatever he had last season, and lost.
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Bbf war room is lit.
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And my former player, Ethan Small, goes to Milwaukee...fml...
Dave when did you coach him, he looks fantastic, kid was painting corners with his breaker the other day.
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Jensen’s Fresno State team lost 9-7 and was eliminated last night. Thankfully FSU did not pitch Jensen.
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After reviewing the draft board I would really like to see the Cubs draft Matt Cronin from Arkansas with their next pick. He is a big lefty closer with great stuff. I think he could move pretty quickly through the system.
I actually met and became friendly with his father last year at the CWS and have stayed in touch with him.
I don’t understand the hesitancy to draft closers if they seemingly have the stuff and personality but someone is going to get this kid in the 3rd or 4th round and I will bet he moves quickly.
Cronin in the 3rd and Ryan Zeferjahn in the 4th would make up for the blah 2nd rounder. If they were to take Matt Allen and sign him I would be good with that as well. 😁
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Thank goc, Fresno State was eliminated so Jensen won’t get abused.
Cronin is interesting. A hard throwing lefty reliever would be nice.
I’d like to see the Cubs get an upside high school arm similar to Franklin a couple times.
Jensen has so many things that can go wrong with him that will prevent him from ever reaching the majors, but at least it wasn’t average fastball guy.
Strumpf seems like a very Cubs pick. College hitter that will give you a professional AB.
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Strumpf was a pretty shiny prospect heading into the season, but took a huge step backwards - sophomore year stellar, junior year mediocre. Not much glove and can't run, so he's a hit or bust proposition, pretty much. A LIAB pick to be sure - gambling that he finds whatever he had last season, and lost.
I know nothing about Strumpf, but the Fangraphs ratings posted by CUBluejays doesn't seem consistent with "not much glove and can't run." Or am I misunderstanding their ratings system?
Fangraphs
#51,Hit 30/55, Game Power 25/40, Raw Power 50/50, Speed 50/50, Field 45/50, Arm 50/50
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The latter.
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I think 50 is average. Projected to be average on speed, fielding, and arm doesn’t sound like nothing.
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Ron, it's a 20-80 scouting scale, with 20 being worst and 80 being best.
The number before the slash is the player's rating as of now. The number after the slash is the player's projected rating.
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Dave when did you coach him, he looks fantastic, kid was painting corners with his breaker the other day.
14 year old competitive ball, Memphis Tigers...his parents drove him down from Lexington every weekend to play for us. He was our ace...not our fastest guy, but pitchability was off the charts, and the best pickoff move anyone in the age group had ever seen. He threw a 6 inning perfect game in which he struck out 17, and the opposing coach (a friend of mine) still talks about how impressive it was to this day (his team was really good as well).
I remember he used to run foul poles after every start, religiously...didn't matter if it was noon or midnight. Both he and his parents had big picture plans, even then...
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I read the written ones as an offense/bat prospect. Fangraphs ranks the two present offense-areas as the bad ones (30 and 25), and doesn't project them as even potentially becoming very good (55 and 40); but they view everything else as already perfectly fine/average.
*Hit 30/55, Game Power 25/40, Raw Power 50/50, Speed 50/50, Field 45/50, Arm 50/50
Sink or swim with the offense. Doesn't sound like the other stuff is going to hold him back, *IF* he can hit. There are lots of 2B and LF opportunities around for an excellent hitter who fields fine but isn't Javy or Hewyard.
Hope he hits!
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The present grades at Fangraphs represent what they think is statistical profile would be if you brought him up to the majors today.
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Right. It's pretty routine with these that hitting and game-power for players are the present-vs-projected have the big gaps, and for pitchers the control has the big present-vs-projected have big gaps. Speed and arm obviously aren't going to change a lot. (Although obviously tons of guys get slower over their careers.)
55-40 aren't really that great or high-ceiling of possible projections for hitting and game power.
To some degree, I think the scouting things don't necessarily have as much discrimination as they could or should. If you've got Baez or Bryant power, maybe you'll score really high there, or Buxton speed. But from the projections standpoint, it's hard to get 60's or better; and you rarely get guys scoring <40. And Fangraphs only goes by 5's. So, seems a whole lot of guys kind of get clustered in the 45-50-55 areas.
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Passan tweeted out Matthew Allen who had a $4 million price tag to the Cubs.
I'll never understand high school pitchers pricing themselves out of the first round just so they can go to college. There are a lot of bad things that can happen to your arm over three years before you're eligible again.
Maybe the college experience is worth $2.5 million to him, but boy that's just risky. It just seems like taking the money and doing college later is just an infinitely smarter move.
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Just as an aside, nobody took Allen yesterday, so the Cubs apparently weren't the only "cheap" ones when it came to him.
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Evan Altman
@DEvanAltman
According to source, Cubs initially wanted to go in different direction with #27 pick but opted for Ryan Jensen due to underslot bonus considerations. They were looking to pay pick 43-45 money there, which wasn't going to work for top choice.
Could look at it as them being cheap or saving money to go overslot and pay HS kid(s) to skip college with pick(s) in today's rounds. And Jensen is the kind of power arm they don't have in abundance in system.
Let me clarify the "cheap" thing: That was more of a jab at what people want to think about org. They had a plan in mind to go underslot, but it didn't work with first choice.
That would put the saving $840,300-$919,900.
Craig the mlb scouts only move by 5 on their grades, so it isn't just a Fangraphs thing. Players perfroming at 60 level tools at the major leagues is pretty rare.
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I'll never understand high school pitchers pricing themselves out of the first round just so they can go to college. There are a lot of bad things that can happen to your arm over three years before you're eligible again.
Maybe the college experience is worth $2.5 million to him, but boy that's just risky. It just seems like taking the money and doing college later is just an infinitely smarter move.
Vandy provides a pretty decent education and they have a reputation for not abusing their pitchers. It would be one of the few colleges I could see a pitcher skipping pro ball to go to school.
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Fangraphs write up
Jensen had late helium into the 25-40 range as he’d been performing well, holding his mid-90s velo late into games all year, and he purportedly has unique fastball characteristics that attracted him to progressive clubs. He could move quickly in a multi-inning role and continues the trend of college arms for the Cubs. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the Cubs kicked the tires on prep RHP Matthew Allan and it sounds like the D’backs did as well. Allan seems likely to go to Florida now. Strumpf is a nice value as another college infield performer who needs a bit of a swing change to turn him into an everyday player. He also homered for UCLA in their regional just seconds after being drafted.
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Didn't you go to Vandy, JR?
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Evan Altman@DEvanAltman According to source, Cubs .... opted for Ryan Jensen due to underslot bonus considerations. They were looking to pay pick 43-45 money there........That would put the saving $840,300-$919,900....
Interesting, will be curious to see whether that plays out as actually true.
Heh heh, it seems to me that every year other than Bryant and Almora, whenever the Cubs take a college guy ranked lower on media lists, there is always subslot speculation. But it's rarely proved true. Other than Schwarber, they've usually come in at or very close to slot. Hoerner, sub-slot talk unfounded; Lange there was sub-slot talk; Little for sure; some of that with Happ too; obviously Abbott, Thompson, and Uelman all had that kind of talk two years ago in rounds 2-4.... But usually the Cubs have ended up paying slot or very close to slot. (Little was like $170 under; Lange after he failed the physical was $259 under, but nothing very much....)
So I'll be curious again whether Jensen really agreed to a subslot deal, or if that turns out to be more speculation than real. That said, Altman alludes to a "source"; I don't recall anything like that with previous picks (other than Schwarber), just fans like us on boards.
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Didn't you go to Vandy, JR?
No I didn't, but I worked there for five years.
And CBJ does have a good point about schools like Vandy or Stanford. Some of these players might not be able to get back into a school like that when their playing days are over, so it might be worth it then. Billy Beane mentioned in Moneyball that Stanford rescinded their admission for him when he decided to go pro.
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I was listening to Keith Law on Buster's podcast and he pointed out Florida and Vandy as being progressive with regards to protecting their pitchers.
I think Stanford is under a new manager, but they have been a **** show with hitter/pitcher development for a while.
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It really doesn't matter how progressive you are in protecting pitchers. Young pitchers get hurt, lose their stuff, etc. no matter how much they're babied and protected.
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True, but a lot of college will abuse their pitchers during CWS with high pitch counts and little rest and the injury risks are sky high. AJ Puk was a guy that went to Florida, turning down late first round money and sent 6th as a Junior. It does work out some times.
Mooney's article hints at the Cubs doing a below slot with Jensen as well.
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#55 Ryan Jensen FB 70/70, SL 45/50, CH 45/50, CMD 40/50 Sits 93-96,T 99. ATH ++...
....Craig the mlb scouts only move by 5 on their grades, so it isn't just a Fangraphs thing. Players perfroming at 60 level tools at the major leagues is pretty rare.
In my limited perspective, it seems like projections tend to cluster around 50. I don't feel like the number scores always tell the story of what the scouts really seem to be thinking; the numbers lack differentiation? So much bunching in the 50-55-maybe-60 range.
Which is why Jensen's fastball projecting as 70 is **really** outstanding. I don't think these scouting reports give out 70's unless a guy is really different from the pack. Lots of great runners, but how many guys short of Buxton get a 70? Lots of HR hitters, but how many short of a Bryant will get a 70 for power?
I do think fastball tends to get more separation in the scouting reports, for obvious reasons. Even so, it takes a pretty good fastball to get a 60, and a really, really good one to get a 65; to get a 70 is pretty unusual.
Jensen projects to 50 in everything but fastball. Change and slider are given exactly the same scores: 45/50, no differentiation. Even though one of the game reports referenced "hammer" breaking ball. And even though the sentence-style reports seemed considerably more enthusiastic about the present development and future utility of the change. I suppose maybe it's different evaluatons telling different stories. But it would kind of seem from the word-reports that the number scale should project the slider higher than 50; and the change lower than 50, and certainly the present change lower than 45.
I guess I just kinda feel like the grading scale could perhaps use more differentiation. For Strumpf, reading the written summaries, it's pretty obvious that the media scouts think his bat has a chance to make him a good major leaguer, that's why they rated him a top-50 guy. It's obviously his batting potential that made him a top-50 guy on the media lists, it's not based on his speed or arm strength. Yet in the scouting report, even projecting, they don't have his hitting more than a 55, only one increment above average, and only one increment above his speed or arm. They totally don't love his arm or speed, they do like his bat enough to rank him as a 1st-day pick; yet the bat projects to be only one step above his boring arm/speed/defense? I'm just thinking the bat might perhaps warrant a 58 or a 60 projection, and the speed more a 47 or a 45 or 42; a greater discrimination and differentiation.
But, whatever, they all know how they use their system, so they know how to make it work.
Also maybe obvious that it was the Cubs who picked Strumpf; so maybe internally they project his bat to be 60 and his game-power to be full-out 50. And maybe they selected Jensen where they did because they were projecting his slider at 55 or 60, and his control at 53-60 or whatever, too?
Projecting to 60 shouldn't be that rare, though? If 50 is average, and 55 is one increment above, shouldn't there be more guys that project 60?
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I’m sure I’m forgetting someone but I dont think we’ve had a pitcher turn down money and get less offered college. Donny Everett is an entirely different scenario. Price, Gray, and Beede all turned down big money for college but ended up getting higher bonuses after. I assume Kumar Rocker will come out ahead.
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I seem to really like the Cardinals draft year in and year out. Can’t we steal someone from their front office?
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We drafted Michael McAvene in the third round? That’s horrible!
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Cubs Round 3 pick: Michael McAvene, Louisville, RP.
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My guy Zeferjahn goes to the Bosox. Holding out hope for Cronin. Was texting his dad who wasn’t offering much (probably doesn’t know much since he hasn’t gotten a call yet).
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Projecting to 60 shouldn't be that rare, though? If 50 is average, and 55 is one increment above, shouldn't there be more guys that project 60?
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/scouting-explained-the-20-80-scouting-scale/
Fangraphs does use a + to further differentiate.
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Fangraphs135
103/CHC Michael McAvene RHP 21.8 6' 3" 210 R R Louisville FV 40
Fastball 65/70
Slider 50/55
Command35/40
Sits 94-98 T100
Currently suspended for 3 games for saying that Horrible to an ump.
Fangraphs gave 5 future 70 grade fastballs, Cubs have drafted 2 of them.
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Glenallen Hill's son to the D-Backs in the 4th round. Turk Wendell's son is also draft eligible.
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Cronin to the Nationals.
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Old guy, turns 22 this summer. Ranked 179 by MLB.
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He had a previous TJS as well.
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With the surgery, has <60 innings pitched in college.
https://d1baseball.com/player/lQHb5HJx/michael-mcavene/
46K/9BB/30IP this year (not sure how updated those stats are....) That's pretty K-ish!
Pitched cape Cod league last summer, kind of a Maples there, more walks than innings.
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4th Rounder
Clarke, Chris
USC (CA)
P
R/R
4YR JR
--
6' 7 212lbs
DOB:05/13/99
Bastion
It's Clarke the Cub in the fourth round. Cubs take 6-foot-7 righty Chris Clarke out of USC. Another reliever. In 27 games for USC this year, he had a 1.03 ERA with 60 K vs. 18 BB in 52.1 IP.
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Another Tommy John guy too. 92-95 mph fastball with a 70 grade curve according to BA.
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No more soft tossers in this draft...
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Stocking up on relievers! Kinda fun.
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Josh Burgmann - RHRP - Washington
My guy Dillard goes next pick to Milwaukee...sigh...
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Burgmann is yet another guy who's had Tommy John.
Through his first 14 starts and 79 innings, Burgmann posted a 3.99 ERA, but the major improvement was the fact that he was striking out a career-best 11.5 batters per nine while walking just 2.5 per nine. Scouts praise his strike-throwing ability—he almost throws too many, as Burgmann doesn’t like to waste pitches and will frequently give hitters too many hittable offerings inside the zone. His fastball sits in the low 90s but touches 95 mph, and both his slider and curveball are above-average offerings. He also has a solid fourth-pitch changeup. Listed at 6 feet, 205 pounds, Burgmann has a strong, stocky build without much room for further projection, but he has a solid trio of pitches and good strike-throwing to match.
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He kind of sounds like Ricky Nolasco.
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Louisville and UCLA are still in the tournament, so a chance to see Mcavene and Strumph this coming weekend.
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Louisville and UCLA are still in the tournament, so a chance to see Mcavene and Strumph this coming weekend.
What about the suspension?
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Right, forgot about that.
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Cubs pick top HS Catcher
71
Ethan Hearn C 18.8
Hit 20/40
Game Power 25/50
Raw Power 50/55
Run 40/35
Field 50/60
Arm 65/65
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Looks like we found our superslot player.
67
team logo
Hearn, Ethan
Mobile Christian School (AL)
C
L/R
HS SR
6' 0 200lbs
DOB:08/31/00
$247.00k
player-headshot
Only two Alabama high school catchers ever have been selected in the first three rounds, and it hasn't happened in the last 50 years. Rated the top prep backstop in the 2019 Draft by some teams, Hearn could join James Kelly (Orioles, second round, 1966) and Lamar Johnson (White Sox, third, 1968) in that exclusive club. His talent and the relative lack of catching available this year is pushing him up boards. Hearn's two most impressive tools are his raw power and pure arm strength, both of which grade as plus. He's a left-handed hitter whose strength and aggressive, pull-oriented mindset give him plenty of pop to right field. He has a quick release on his throws and can record 1.9-second pop times to second base. A Mississippi State recruit, Hearn still requires some offensive and defensive polish. He needs to temper his approach at the plate because he doesn't always make consistent contact against quality pitching. He has improved as a receiver but still has more work to do and loses concentration more often than he should.
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He's rated as the top high school catcher in the draft by BA.
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So, overslot guy who might be a tough sign.
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The Cubs haven't taken a top 10 round guy that didn't sign. If they picked him they know they can meet his number.
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Yeah, probably. Nice to see an overslot there. HS catchers drafted high don’t have a great track record—so better to have a potential washout in 6th round, even with 2/3 round money. Won’t seem as disapponting.
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http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=187935#Pitching
Cubs drafted Depperman 5 years ago. Either fresh or soph year must have gotten injured early enough to get an extra year. Will turn 23 within two weeks!
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http://www.pointstreaksites.com/view/prospectleague/prospect-league-news/news_514130
He was our 31st round pick in 2014.
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Guessing that he’s looking at a $5,000 bonus as a senior sign.
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Reb beat me. $5k only if we are feeling generous. Should have signed 5 years ago.
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Cubs took another HS arm that worked out at Wrigley DJ Herz.
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First HS pitcher taken by Cubs.
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Herz is a nice prospect...only 6'1", but room to get stronger and add to FB that tops out at 92-93 currently. UNC commit...
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Didn't the Cubs give a fifth year, Senior, a $100,000 Bonus last year, just to be fair , even though Cubs had all of the leverage in negotiations ?
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Herz is a nice prospect...only 6'1", but room to get stronger and add to FB that tops out at 92-93 currently. UNC commit...
MLB.com had him topping out at 95 I believe.
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So it turns out the Cubs contacted Cronin in the 3rd round but they couldn’t agree on money. I am guessing that McAvene will come in under slot.
I hate the baseball draft and wish it was simply a draft the best player type deal like other sports.
-
9th Tyler Schlaffer, RHP, HS out of Illinois. Up to 94. 6-1, 160.
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I certainly didn't expect the Cubs to be so aggressive in going after high schoolers after the start of this draft. My reading of the tea leaves might not be all that great, but Schlaffer sounds like a guy who might go for around slot. He wasn't particularly highly regarded coming into the draft, and I'm not sure where the extra money to pay him a substantial superslot would come from with us needing to sign more highly regarded guys like Hearn and Herz. We obviously expect him to sign, though, if we were going to take him in the 9th round.
Nice seeing us be a little more aggressive in the back part of the first ten rounds.
-
Round 10 pick:
43. Wyatt Hendrie, C, Antelope Valley (Calif.) JC (BA RANK: 357)
Source: JC • Ht: 5-11 • Wt: 200 • B-T: R-R • Commitment/Drafted: Never Drafted
Hendrie popped up in a weak California junior college crop as an athletic catcher with advanced defensive skills. Hendrie is short but solid at 5-foot-10, 200 pounds, has a plus arm and is the rare catcher who is an above-average runner. His receiving is still a bit rigid because he is new to catching after primarily playing the outfield in high school, but he has the ingredients to project as an average or better defensive catcher. Hendrie is a contact hitter with a flat swing who hit .410/.479/.660. He controls the barrel and manages the strike zone well, but his power projection is limited because his swing is very compact. Hendrie is considered signable and projects to go late on the draft’s second day or early on the third day.
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Here is the link to the site of past years that keeps track of Cubs draftees, slots, twitter comments, etc.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9hzhGo0Q_29g2bfa2yQwHYqNN799JzkCP7HyK-XCKY/htmlview#
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McAvene is already geared up for the Pitching Lab.
https://www.mlb.com/cubs/news/cubs-2019-draft-day-2-coverage
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I wonder if they are going to try him as a starter. He has 3 pitches so he could do it, but if they leave him as a reliever he could move quickly.
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Here's a closer the Cubs could've gotten later and and gone with more upside early:
https://www.theuconnblog.com/2019/6/4/18652630/uconn-huskies-baseball-closer-jake-wallace-picked-in-third-round-of-mlb-draft-colorado-rockies
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Here's a closer the Cubs could've gotten later and and gone with more upside early:
https://www.theuconnblog.com/2019/6/4/18652630/uconn-huskies-baseball-closer-jake-wallace-picked-in-third-round-of-mlb-draft-colorado-rockies
The Cubs third round pick was 103, he went 100. So the Cubs should have taken him in the second round?
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Touche.
-
11
342
--
Chambers, Mack
Seminole State (OK)
SS
S/R
JC J1
--
5' 11 170lbs
DOB:08/10/99
--
-
12
372
--
Bigge, Hunter
Harvard (MA)
P
R/R
4YR JR
--
6' 0 205lbs
DOB:06/12/98
--
-
Nothing on Chambers at BA.
Bigge is BA's 396th ranked player. Fastball is 94-96 at its best, but he's too hittable and walks too many. Future reliever. Two way player at Harvard. I guess the "million dollar arm but 10 cent head" wouldn't necessarily apply with him, right?
-
13
402
--
Hodge, Porter
Cottonwood Senior HS (UT)
RHP
R/R
HS SR
--
6' 4 230lbs
DOB:02/21/01
--
-
I'll never understand high school pitchers pricing themselves out of the first round just so they can go to college. There are a lot of bad things that can happen to your arm over three years before you're eligible again.
Maybe the college experience is worth $2.5 million to him, but boy that's just risky. It just seems like taking the money and doing college later is just an infinitely smarter move.
Justin Hooper was just taken by the Royals in the 14th round as a senior. He was high first rounder out of HS and went to UCLA.......
-
What's with all these guys with surnames for first names?
-
14
432
--
Reynolds, Ryan
Texas (TX)
3B
S/R
4YR JR
--
6' 2 215lbs
DOB:07/17/97
-
What's with all these guys with surnames for first names?
Talk to MLB.com
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14
432
--
Reynolds, Ryan
Texas (TX)
3B
S/R
4YR JR
--
6' 2 215lbs
DOB:07/17/97
I guess that pick should make female Cub fans happy.
-
15
462
Bryant, Zach
Jacksonville University (FL)
RHP
R/R
4YR JR
--
6' 1 210lbs
DOB:06/05/98
-
16
492
--
Oquendo, Johzan
Leadership Christian Academy (PR)
RHP
R/R
HS SR
--
6' 2 180lbs
DOB:01/06/01
-
amfan
12:51 Kiley, can you give us Cub fans some good stuff on Herz, Schlaffer, and/or Hendrie, our 8, 9, and 10th round picks?
Kiley McDaniel
12:52 touching on them in the pod. Hendrie athletic JC backstop, Schlaffer solid avg stuff popup northern prep arm, Herz showed flashes this year of top 5 rounds, also a popup guy
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Justin Hooper was just taken by the Royals in the 14th round as a senior. He was high first rounder out of HS and went to UCLA.......
Yeah that's Exhibit A on why turning the money down isn't really that great of a move IMHO.
Then again, money's not everything. Maybe getting a normal college experience at a good school and getting to play pro ball for a couple of years might make him happier in life in the long run. You never know.
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17
522
--
Dalton, Tanner
Sacramento State (CA)
RHP
R/R
4YR SR
--
6' 2 195lbs
DOB:08/25/96
-
Thanks for keeping on posting these. Surprised they've already taken three teenagers today through pick 16. Usually through round 20, they pretty much only take players they know will be signable.
I was really surprised yesterday when they took 4 teenagers in rounds 6, 8, 9, and 10. I expected one or two teenage superslots, but didn't really expect 3 or 4 of them. Will be interesting to see how they get paid, versus how much the college relievers get sub-slotted.
And now 3 more early today that they expect to sign.
Obviously a teenager who's willing to sign for 3rd-day $100K is probably 3rd-day signable because he's not a very good prospect, and maybe isn't very smart either so doesn't like college. So no reason to assume a 3rd-day HS prospect is actually any better than a 3rd-day college pitcher.
But, with the younger guys, maybe some physical maturation and developmental magic and maybe a guy blossoms into a prospect? Fun to hope.
-
18
552
--
Moore, Alex
Lander University (SC)
P
R/R
4YR SR
--
6' 3 205lbs
DOB:10/25/96
-
Thanks for keeping on posting these. Surprised they've already taken three teenagers today through pick 16. Usually through round 20, they pretty much only take players they know will be signable.
The lasy few years they have taken PR HS kids in this area and usually signed them.
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19
582
--
Laskey, Adam
Duke (NC)
P
R/L
4YR JR
--
6' 3 205lbs
DOB:03/09/98
Ryan Reynolds is sadly not the actor, but is former MLB pitcher Shane Reynold's son.
-
20
612
--
Hill, Darius
West Virginia (WV)
RF
L/L
4YR SR
--
6' 1 190lbs
DOB:08/17/97
-
Ryan Reynolds is sadly not the actor, but is former MLB pitcher Shane Reynold's son.
I'm really getting old.
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Laskey was BA's 280th ranked prospect for the draft who fell because he only pitched 12 IP this season. He was the Cape Cod pitcher of the year last summer, but his college record hasn't been that great. I guess he probably won't be signing being taken this late.
-
21
642
--
Maldonado, Nelson
Florida (FL)
OF
R/R
4YR SR
--
5' 10 195lbs
DOB:08/13/96
-
22
672
Almanzar, Elian
Florence-Darlington Tech (SC)
P
L/R
JC J1
--
6' 4 210lbs
DOB:02/01/00
-
David Kaplan
@thekapman
Follow Follow @thekapman
More
The #Cubs have reached an agreement with Mobile Christian catcher Ethan Hearn who will receive 2nd round money to forgo a scholarship to Miss. State. He is considered the best high school catcher in the draft. They took him in the 6th round.
-
David Kaplan
@thekapman
Follow Follow @thekapman
More
The #Cubs have reached an agreement with Mobile Christian catcher Ethan Hearn who will receive 2nd round money to forgo a scholarship to Miss. State. He is considered the best high school catcher in the draft. They took him in the 6th round.
Well that happened fast.
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23
702
--
Collier, Manny
Westwood HS (AZ)
CF
R/R
HS SR
--
5' 10 170lbs
DOB:12/19/00
-
Collier is BA's 429th rated player. He's apparently more highly thought of as a football recruit. Raw but has plus-plus speed. Some teams considered him as a late Day 2 prospect.
He's committed to junior college, so maybe the Cubs could sign him cheap while he figures out what sport he wants to play?
-
David Kaplan
@thekapman
Follow Follow @thekapman
More
The #Cubs have reached an agreement with Mobile Christian catcher Ethan Hearn who will receive 2nd round money to forgo a scholarship to Miss. State. He is considered the best high school catcher in the draft. They took him in the 6th round.
With someone like that, with signability issues, I suspect that the Cubs would not have picked him if he hadn't agreed to their offer while they are on the board. It isn't unusual for the local scout to be right there with the family while the draft is going on, if they have a close enough relationship with him. Some of these better kids have been followed by the local scout since little league.
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24
732
--
Byrd, Grayson
Clemson (SC)
IF
L/R
4YR 5S
--
6' 3 205lbs
DOB:06/16/96
25
762
--
Taylor, Zac
University of Illinois (IL)
OF
R/R
4YR 5S
--
6' 1 185lbs
DOB:10/01/95
26
792
--
Olson, Jacob
South Carolina (SC)
IF
R/R
4YR SR
--
6' 0 200lbs
DOB:05/21/97
-
Former Cub Trenidad Hubbard's son was taken by that Nationals.
-
27
822
--
Ueckert, Cayne
McNeese State (LA)
RHP
R/R
4YR SR
--
6' 3 195lbs
DOB:05/28/96
-
28
852
--
Kachmar, Chris
Lipscomb University (TN)
RHP
R/R
4YR SR
--
6' 3 180lbs
DOB:09/03/96
-
29
882
--
Washer, Jake
East Carolina (NC)
C
R/R
4YR SR
--
6' 0 220lbs
DOB:02/23/96
-
It's that time in the draft where we're basically picking guys just to fill out Eugene's and Mesa's rosters.
-
30
912
--
King, Bryan
McNeese State (LA)
LHP
R/L
4YR SR
--
6' 1 184lbs
DOB:11/05/96
It's that time in the draft where we're basically picking guys just to fill out Eugene's and Mesa's rosters.
I'm surprised about the lack of position players, a bunch of DSL position players must be in the pipeline.
-
31
942
--
Combs, Shane
Notre Dame (IN)
P
R/R
4YR SR
--
6' 2 219lbs
DOB:01/14/97
-
32
972
--
Windham, Bryce
Old Dominion (VA)
2B
L/R
4YR SR
--
6' 1 190lbs
DOB:09/25/96
-
33
1002
--
Ritter, Ryan
Lincoln Way East HS (IL)
SS
R/R
HS SR
--
6' 1 170lbs
DOB:11/10/00
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Now we're in the part of the draft where you may take some HS guys in case one of the super-slots selected on Day 1 fails their physical or ends up reneging to what they said they'd sign for when you talked to them on draft day.
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34
1032
Letzgus, Nolan
Heritage HS (GA)
P
R/R
HS SR
--
6' 0 175lbs
DOB:12/22/00
-
35
1062
--
Patteson, Hunter
Vero Beach Senior HS (FL)
P
L/L
HS SR
--
6' 4 170lbs
DOB:04/04/00
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Well that happened fast.
Before he was picked, no doubt.
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The #Cubs have reached an agreement with Mobile Christian catcher Ethan Hearn who will receive 2nd round money to forgo a scholarship to Miss. State. He is considered the best high school catcher in the draft. They took him in the 6th round.
Key word here is "reach an agreement", of course, which differs from "signing". Don't want to sign the overslots until the underslots have signed and freed up the money. They assume they're going to clear some underslot cash plus overage on Jensen (according to the Evan Altman rumor), underslot+overage on Louisville, etc.. to apply to the teenagers. But until those underslots actually sign and do free those dollars, you can't go actually signing overslots.
-
Savermetrics has Chambers (11) and Collier HS CF from Illinois as likely to sign.
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Thanks, Blue, very interesting. MLB lists Collier as an Arizona kid; I think I read that he lived very close to the Cubs Mesa complex. Would be a fun pickup.
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https://www.mlb.com/draft/tracker/all/team/cubs
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=206630
mlb draft-tracker lists UCLA 4th round reliever Clark with "DOB:05/13/99". BBcube shows the same: "Born DateMay 13,1999 [20.024]"
That would mean he pitched almost his entire junior year in the Pac 10 at age 19.... I assume that's a data error by mlb and bbcube.....
In the very unlikely event that's really true, that would mean he was barely 17 when he started his freshman year at UCLA. In the very unlikely event that was true, I'd be a lot more interested, doubly so. That might mean he's really smart, to have skipped a year at least of school. So the Cubs might gravitate towards that. But if he's barely 20 yet, that might also suggest there is more room for growth and improvement than the college junior picks who are pushing 22. Being barely 20-yet, that's like drafting a JC-freshman, age-wise.
Not likely true, of course, but *IF* it's actually correct, and *IF* he ends up becoming an effective major-leaguer, I could imagine broadcasters liking to recount how smart he is and how he pitched his junior year at only 19.
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USC Baseball website lists Clarke as a 1999 birthday. Probably the source for the other sites.
It may well be correct. Clarke could have skipped a grade in elementary school, which is perhaps more common in southern Cal than other places from my experience.
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40th round pick a senior from Torrey Pines High School. My daughter was ridiculously excited.
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Piece about 8th round HS draftee as likely to sign.
https://www.fayobserver.com/sports/20190605/cubs-call-perfect-timing-for-terry-sanfords-herz
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USC Baseball website lists Clarke as a 1999 birthday. Probably the source for the other sites.
It may well be correct. Clarke could have skipped a grade in elementary school, which is perhaps more common in southern Cal than other places from my experience.
I read on one site that Clarke graduated high school at 16. However, that might have been scarcasm, or more likely a mistake compounded from a mistaken birthdate in the first reports.
-
https://twitter.com/PWSullivan/status/1136683456614850562
Schlafer comes to terms.
-
Reported by Heyman to be $250,000.
-
So he was basically superslotted by a little under $100K.
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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/1R9hzhGo0Q_29g2bfa2yQwHYqNN799JzkCP7HyK-XCKY/htmlview#
Spreadsheet with Cubs draft info.
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https://twitter.com/Savermetrics?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/1R9hzhGo0Q_29g2bfa2yQwHYqNN799JzkCP7HyK-XCKY/htmlview#
Just trying to place the go-to links here for my own future reference! :)
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Heyman reporting Jensen signing for $2 million.
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I posted it already.
-
Thanks, guys. That's a little higher than I'd expected, obviously $2 is a round number with only one significant figure. That's slot 36/37 money; I think there had been reference to underslot deal more in the low 40's.
May suggest that Herz isn't going to get a super mongo superslot. Maybe 3rd round cash but probably not 2nd-round level?
-
7th rounder Depperman signs for $50,000. That's about $40K more than I would have expected. The Cubs do pick up $154,120 in bonus pool savings with the signing, though.
-
Do you still have to obtain permission to redraft a player?
I would assume negotiations were done at that time.
-
The Cubs must have liked Depperman more than other seniors. The better seniors will get more money.
-
Piece on 8th rounder DJ Herz.
https://www.upandcomingweekly.com/high-school-highlights/6160-herz-leaning-toward-signing-after-being-picked-by-chicago
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Dj®
@DavidjohnHerz
· 1h
I’m very blessed and honored to say that I am going to be apart of a amazing organization like the Chicago Cubs! Can’t wait to start @Cubs #EverybodyIn
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20th rounder Darius Hill has signed, per Savermetrics...
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5th round RHP Josh Burgmann has signed
-
Herz signed for third round money.
-
Burgmann sounds interesting...I wonder if they plan to use him as a starter or reliever down the road?
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Cubs Prospects - Bryan Smith
@cubprospects
·
58s
So we’re about:
Rd 1 Jensen (540 underslot)
Rd 2 Strumpf
Rd 3 McAvene
Rd 4 Clarke (slot)
Rd 5 Burgmannn
Rd 6 Hearn (700 over)*
Rd 7 Deppermann (144 under)
Rd 8 Herz (337 over)
Rd 9 Schlaffer (100 over)
Rd 10 Hendrie
Allowed over 291,345
So where is extra 130 saved? We’ll see.
*His guess, not confirmed yet.
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Herz signed for third round money.
Jim Callis @jimcallisMLB 3h3 hours ago
8th-rder D.J. Herz signs with @Cubs for $500k (pick 252 value = $162,700). North Carolina HS LHP, already up to 95 mph with more velocity to come, gets ugly swings with his slider. North Carolina recruit.
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Michael Ernst @mj_ernst 2h2 hours ago
Very interesting now that we know Clarke and Herz bonuses.
#Cubs have just over $2.8M remaining to get 2nd rounder Chase Strumpf, Ethan Hearn (expected to receive 2nd round money), as well as their 3rd, 5th and 10th round picks signed. McAvene and Burgmann have to be underslot.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D9CU6R-XUAEYwXy.jpg:small)
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Previously I mentioned that the Cubs called a player (who they didn’t draft) and offered significant underslot money ($165k). The player declined. I will wager that McAvene signs for $165k.
-
Burgmann $225,000 ($318.2K slot)
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Interesting, thanks for the listings. Herz not quite as high as suggested; $500K is 4th round cash, not quite the "3rd round" alluded to. That makes me wonder too whether Hearn really got late 2nd-round money as alluded to, or maybe not quite that much?
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Other really interesting thing is that while other top-5-pick pitchers are underslot (Jensen; certainly McAvene; and Burgmann), that Clarke is NOT underslot.
I think Clarke has gotten almost the least scouting information and discussion; but he's the one who has gotten full slot. Good chance, probability really, that he'll get more than McAvene. But I don't seem to have gotten a lot of scouting input on him?
I'm trying to hope that because he's so young, that he's got more upside left? Or I wonder if, being so young, that he maybe had some extra leverage?
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D9c5M3NW4AEsjSh.jpg:small)
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Bennet, I assume the black names are guys who have formally signed already?
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Hmmm. On my screen that's what the top line says.
-
Craig's a chemist. Not too good with the reading comprehension.
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Heh heh, I didn't realize that if I expanded my box a bunch, I could read the whole top line! Tricky stuff, eh? Strange which guys they chose to list as signed. Unsigned Schlafer was reported well before some of the others, like Strumpf.
I think it perhaps speaks to the distinction between "agreed" and "signed", and the necessity of going down to Mesa for physical, etc.. Perhaps Schlaffer and Hearn are still waiting on McAvene to formally pass his physical and officially sign to clear up overslot cash. Interesting that he hasn't; I'd ahve thought he was a totally agreed-on-the-phone guy, I don't think was in college playoffs, was he? Hope he's not like when they drafted Lange and he's failed his physical.
-
Louisville is still playing...
-
Craig, we hope that every draft pick is unlike Lange. One of the greatest debacles in Cubs draft history. And that's saying something!
-
I wonder if Laskey is over slot?
Oquendo is flying to Mesa, so he should be signing too.
-
Louisville is still playing...
Ahh... Thanks much! That's good, because it means he can't have failed his physical if he hasn't even taken it yet!
:) That would also explain the delay for any other overslots that depend on both his overage and his underslot.
-
McAvene pitched today in the College WS.
AZ Phil’s report:
Cubs 3rd round draft pick RHRP Michael McAvene threw two innings (7th & 8th innings) for Louisville in today's elimination game vs Auburn, protecting a three-run lead. (Louisville won the game and will advance to play the loser of Vanderbilt-Mississippi State tomorrow).
MICHAEL McAVENE: 2.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R (1 ER), 1 BB, 3 K, 1 GIDP, 2/0 GO/AO, 41 pitches (25 strikes)
McAvene looked rusty, probably because he hadn't pitched for more than two weeks after being suspended for four games after arguing a ball-strike call with the home plate umpire in a Regional game vs UIC.
His FB sat 96-97 in his first inning of work before going down to 94-95 (T-96) at the end of his second inning when he got the third out by strike out (swinging) with the bases loaded on a 3-2 96 MPH FB. He also displayed a knee-buckling 80-82 MPH SL/CV (slurve), and he threw a couple of mediocre "show me" CH that he can junk when he turns pro.
-
Laskey was 125K, per Savermetrics
-
12th rounder Hunter Bigge and 14th rounder Ryan Reynolds also get 125K each...
-
23rd rounder Manny Collier- 125K
-
26th Olson, 28th Kachmar, 30th King, 32nd Windham each get 1K.
-
McEvene got $500,000, around $65,000 below spot.
-
6th rounder Ethan Hearn is a done deal at 950K, which is late 2nd round money...
-
Not Cubs related, but ‘21 top prospect Blaze Jordan has reclassified to ‘20.
Google him if you’re not familiar with him...he’s local to me...from the same HS as Austin Riley...he’s an early candidate for #1 next year.
-
Probably a good move to get out of Kumar Rocker’s class.
-
He’s a pitcher? Getting money early is always a good idea. Rocker sure looks nice, but it is a long way until his junior year.
-
So, Cubs did not sign 10th round JUCO catcher Wyatt Hendrie (one of only two guys in first 10 rounds of MLB draft who didn’t sign) nor 11th round JUCO SS Mack Chambers.
But, Jim Callis notes:
The @Cubs may not have signed their 10th-rder but did land a nice arm in Georgia Southern RHP Joe Nahas. He came on late & looked VG in the @Official_CCBL, running his fastball up to 95 mph & backing it up with a solid slider. His $135k bonus is the most for a NDFA this year.
http://baseball.pointstreak.com/player.html?playerid=1377970&seasonid=31871
-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvfCn520WEc
-
Looks like control could be a problem. Also seems to take a baby stride from the wind. I wonder if the increased velocity came from a mechanical tweak.