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Bleacher Bums Forum / Re: Cubs in ‘24
« Last post by ticohans on December 03, 2024, 07:09:42 pm »Three questions, tico, or others.
1. If K-BB stabilizes relatively quickly, and recent 40 IP may have predictive value, how should a saber-savvy guy think about that in context of a pitcher's previous innings? Boyd had the recent 40, and >850 previously. *IF* there is a change in recent K-BB, relative to a lengthy previous record, is it likely the recent run is the new normal, and is more predictive than the previous larger/longer sample?
That K-BB stabilizes relatively quickly does not mean changes represent a new baseline. Instead, if one can identify a meaningful reason for the change in rate and the pitcher has shown the ability to repeat the underlying change, one can have more confidence there's more signal than noise in the results.
2. Is there pitch-metrics, pitch-distribution data to suggest that the new 2024 Boyd really might be different and better than 2015-2023? The way pitchers are constantly tinkering and modifying, hopefully yes? [I'm imagining some new pitch that he used effectively last year that had not been part of his Detroit mix? Maybe a tool versus right-handed hitters?] In other words, did his K-BB shake out differently because his pitch-mix has improved, or is he pretty much using the same pitch mix that he had in Detroit? [*IF* the pitch mix has changed, it seems plausible that success might change, sustainably?]
I haven't looked into this, but it's my hope/expectation the Cubs identified something along these lines, whether mechanical, pitch-mix-related, etc.
3. I'm guessing HR-rate is very slow to stabilize, yes? HR-rate was awful back in Covid season, but has been anti-awful since. Guessing that's high-risk variable, yes? (Heh heh, you mentioned his K-BB being just off Imanaga's pace; perhaps Boyd will be a bit of an Imanaga wannabe for HR-rate also?).
Yes, HR-rate very slow to stabilize.
Note: His K-BB was very good this year, in the small sample. But I think career-wise, it's always been variably good.
Boyd's 2024 K%-BB% was the 2nd highest of his career, and ~30% higher than his next closest years. It was a very strong year by his standards.
I don't mean to suggest that I think he's going to be a great signing. I don't know what story the underlying metrics tell. And I certainly have my concerns about throwing $30M at a soon to be 34 year old SP who hasn't pitched more than 100 IP in a season since 2019. Just adding my thoughts as to what Jed may be up to.