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Bleacher Bums Forum / Re: Cubs in ‘24
« Last post by ticohans on December 03, 2024, 07:09:42 pm »
Three questions, tico, or others.
1.  If K-BB stabilizes relatively quickly, and recent 40 IP may have predictive value, how should a saber-savvy guy think about that in context of a pitcher's previous innings?  Boyd had the recent 40, and >850 previously. *IF* there is a change in recent K-BB, relative to a lengthy previous record, is it likely the recent run is the new normal, and is more predictive than the previous larger/longer sample?

That K-BB stabilizes relatively quickly does not mean changes represent a new baseline. Instead, if one can identify a meaningful reason for the change in rate and the pitcher has shown the ability to repeat the underlying change, one can have more confidence there's more signal than noise in the results.

2.  Is there pitch-metrics, pitch-distribution data to suggest that the new 2024 Boyd really might be different and better than 2015-2023?  The way pitchers are constantly tinkering and modifying, hopefully yes?  [I'm imagining some new pitch that he used effectively last year that had not been part of his Detroit mix?  Maybe a tool versus right-handed hitters?]   In other words, did his K-BB shake out differently because his pitch-mix has improved, or is he pretty much using the same pitch mix that he had in Detroit?  [*IF* the pitch mix has changed, it seems plausible that success might change, sustainably?]

I haven't looked into this, but it's my hope/expectation the Cubs identified something along these lines, whether mechanical, pitch-mix-related, etc.

3.  I'm guessing HR-rate is very slow to stabilize, yes?  HR-rate was awful back in Covid season, but has been anti-awful since.  Guessing that's high-risk variable, yes?  (Heh heh, you mentioned his K-BB being just off Imanaga's pace; perhaps Boyd will be a bit of an Imanaga wannabe for HR-rate also?).

Yes, HR-rate very slow to stabilize.

Note:  His K-BB was very good this year, in the small sample.  But I think career-wise, it's always been variably good.

Boyd's 2024 K%-BB% was the 2nd highest of his career, and ~30% higher than his next closest years. It was a very strong year by his standards.

I don't mean to suggest that I think he's going to be a great signing. I don't know what story the underlying metrics tell. And I certainly have my concerns about throwing $30M at a soon to be 34 year old SP who hasn't pitched more than 100 IP in a season since 2019. Just adding my thoughts as to what Jed may be up to.
 
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Bleacher Bums Forum / Re: Cubs in ‘24
« Last post by ticohans on December 03, 2024, 06:51:28 pm »
After having a full day to think about it more, I really, really hate the Boyd signing. Jed Hoyer is the worst big market executive in MLB, and it's not even close.

Here's how my perspective has evolved on ownership and management. The Ricketts made their money in finance. Joe founded TD Ameritrade. Tom worked as a market maker out of school and moved up through the ranks at various finserv firms and banks.

I don't know what Tom's personal investment philosophies are, but he's certinaly hired a particular type in Hoyer - Jed runs the Cubs like a long-term value fund manager: mitigate risk, do not target outlier performance, focus on undervalued assets, and shoot for just right-of-center outcomes. I think Hoyer is pretty good at this kind of management.

The problem is that fans don't want value fund managers running their teams. They want agressive growth managers who will lean into risk, target outlier performance, and focus on returns.

In this way, I fault Hoyer less and less, and just want new ownership. Glad that credible voices like Rosenthal are publicly shaming the org, because the self-imposed limitations are just stupid.
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Bleacher Bums Forum / Re: Around Baseball
« Last post by Deeg on December 03, 2024, 06:33:17 pm »
You’ll get no argument from me on this, it’s an incredibly dumb idea. But I’m bemused that anyone could take that position and express support for the Manfred Man, which is just as much a mockery of baseball’s competitive history. It’s really only a difference of degree.

This guy is doing his best to ruin the game, and the sooner he’s no longer associated with it the better.
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Bleacher Bums Forum / Re: Cubs in ‘24
« Last post by Reb on December 03, 2024, 05:02:47 pm »

…I wonder if there might be some trades Hoyer might be discussing that would involve both reliever-in and reliever(s) out?…


Craig- As you note, Keegan Thompson is out of options. Thinking that good chance he’s not with Cubs by time spring training comes along.

Could see Thompson attached as part of multi-players trade. He’s not much of a trade value guy but would think there are clubs out there who have room for him in their bullpen, especially as his 2025 deal isn’t much more than MLB minimum salary. If Cubs are busy re. bullpen in off-season, would seem to follow that are going to need relievers-with-options among the holdovers.
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Chicago Bears Forum / Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Last post by otto105 on December 03, 2024, 04:58:21 pm »
Hey davefuckup



What is your opinion on Charles Kushner.
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Chicago Bears Forum / Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Last post by otto105 on December 03, 2024, 04:50:56 pm »
Hilarious


And you so much want to taken seriously.

When will gas be $1 a gallon?
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Bleacher Bums Forum / Re: Cubs in ‘24
« Last post by Reb on December 03, 2024, 04:45:36 pm »
Joel Sherman has a piece about Clay Holmes and that he might be getting offers as a SP (see link). Saw another similar piece elsewhere about Jeff Hoffman as a SP.

I could see Cubs in on one of these guys for a swingman type role. No promises as a SP but maybe you get a shot type thing.  Projections have each in the $10-12 per season range on multi-year deals. Probably in Cubs price range/years.

Depth with some upside potential and versatility. Seems like a Hoyer-type move.

Guessing Cubs in on Hoby Milner as a lefty guy.

https://nypost.com/2024/12/02/sports/mlb-teams-interested-in-clay-holmes-as-starter-including-mets/
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Chicago Bears Forum / Re: Green Bay sucks
« Last post by otto105 on December 03, 2024, 04:05:54 pm »
Hilarious



J maga REDUX where are you? Are you bearing down?
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Chicago Bears Forum / Re: Politics, Religion, etc.
« Last post by Bears4Ever on December 03, 2024, 03:36:08 pm »
Corrupt- indeed. Worst- Obama hands down. Weird that we became hyper racial conscious country AFTER we elected that fool. I think most folks figured that racial tensions would be forever forgiven or something like that.

Anyone with a brain could see that it would not.

But at least it accelerated the decline of the Democrat Party. Unfortunately, so many suffered is so many ways for that fool's "Hope and Change"......
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Bleacher Bums Forum / Re: Cubs in ‘24
« Last post by craig on December 03, 2024, 03:17:20 pm »
I wonder
...
If the Morosi report is credible, Cubs will be active in bullpen market—perhaps adding another guy or two. Could be a lots-of-bullpen-depth situation with some dominant stuff guys at back-end.....

I wonder if there might be some trades Hoyer might be discussing that would involve both reliever-in and reliever(s) out? 

I realize ERA is an imperfect represetation of relief work.  But for simplicity, consider the following:
Tyson Miller:  2.15, 0.8 WHIP
Keegan Thompson:  2.67, 1.2 WHIP
Nate Pearson, 2.67, 0.99 WHIP
Porter Hodge:  1.88, 0.88 WHIP
Luke Little:  3.46, 1.27 WHIP
Ethan Roberts:  3.71, 1.51 WHIP
Hayden Wesneski:  3.86, 1.11 WHIP

That's before including any of Merryweather, Eli Morgan, Assad, Brown, Wicks, Horton, Neely, or Palencia or Killian. 

Seems like we've got some volume, and some guys who were reasonably productive ERA and WHIP-wise last year.  I could imagine some possible trade discussion with relievers going both ways?  Miller and Roberts for one reliever back?  A no-options guy like Keegan out, some options-remaining prospect back?  Maybe somebody with better player development thinks they could get something out of Palencia, so a combo of both Wesneski and Palencia for one slightly more established reliever back?  Or, a reliever to us with only one or two years of control left, traded for a guy with a bunch of control years left, like Miller or Keegan or Wesneski or Palencia or whomever? 

Obviously reliever+prospect for reliever might also be a thing.  Miller + Long.  Keegan + Rojas.  Pearson + Cristian Hernandez.  Palencia + Canario. 


Seems like a lot of teams really like to diversify the looks from their bullpen.  So maybe somebody we're not super-buzzed about might seem like a different-look guy for them, Miller or Ethan Roberts or somebody funky like that? 

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