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Hoge: 2016 Bears Mock Draft 3.0

Unread postby Conehead » Tue Apr 05, 2016 7:46 am

Hoge: 2016 Bears Mock Draft 3.0

POSTED 5:00 AM, APRIL 5, 2016, BY ADAM HOGE


With the bulk of free agency behind us, we now have a much better idea of what the Bears’ depth chart looks like and where their glaring needs stand out. One of those areas is on the defensive line where Bears general manager Ryan Pace and head coach John Fox both believe this draft class has some depth. That said, Pace has maintained that he believes in drafting the best player available, and after Joey Bosa and DeForest Buckner, I see a gap before we get to other D-linemen like Sheldon Rankins, Kevin Dodd and Shaq Lawson, who are all worthy of getting drafted in the first round, but maybe not at No. 11. I also like Alabama’s A’Shawn Robinson, but I used him in Bears Mock Draft 2.0.

I’ve also taken a long look at cornerbacks in this spot. There were rumblings at the NFL owner’s meetings that the Bears were active in the free agent cornerback market and considering their only moves at this position were to re-sign Tracy Porter and Sherrick McManis, this leads me to believe they are very interested in upgrading at corner early in the draft. The problem? Other than Jalen Ramsey, I don’t see a corner worth taking at No. 11. Florida’s Vernon Hargreaves III is fast and possesses good ball skills, but he allows too many completions underneath and I worry about his size at the next level. Frankly, his tape reminds me of Kyle Fuller, who the Bears probably overdraft at No. 14 two years ago. And then there’s Clemson’s Mackenzie Alexander, who is a true press-man shutdown corner, but he’s slower and doesn’t really fit Fox’s desire to get faster on defense. Alexander also had zero interceptions in college, which makes him a poor fit for a Bears secondary that hasn’t been able to take the ball away consistently the last two and half seasons.

So, after narrowing it down, I spent a lot of time considering Georgia linebacker Leonard Floyd at No. 11. I like Floyd. He was used more as an inside linebacker last season, but as an edge rusher, his tape is very impressive. He would definitely make the Bears’ defense faster as he can run sideline-to-sideline and even cover receivers one-on-one (check out his game against Vanderbilt). There’s one major concern that led me to pass on Floyd though: he’s thin. He needs to add a lot of strength to be successful at the next level. He’s not an edge setter and he tends to get glued to blocks. In some ways, there’s a touch of Shea McClellin in his game, and while I think Floyd will be able to add weight and be a successful pass rusher at the NFL level, it’s not a guarantee. In other words, at least in this mock, Floyd is not the best player available.

So who is? Let’s get to the picks:

1st Round, No. 11 — RB Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State (6-0, 225)

I’ve been asked many times about the Bears possibly drafting Elliott and my short, quick response has normally been along the lines of: “The Bears have so many needs, especially on defense. I just don’t know if it’s smart to take a running back that early.”

That said, I see a scenario in which Elliott truly is the best player available at No. 11 — and this is that scenario. Elliott is a rare running back. I don’t know if he’s as good as Todd Gurley, who went No. 10 last year, but he’s better than Melvin Gordon, who was drafted 15th overall. Elliott is the complete package in terms of speed, agility, pass-catching ability and blocking ability. He sacrifices a little bit when it comes to breakaway speed, but his vision and agility allows him to find the right holes and his speed is good enough to break off big gains when he hits those holes.

I’m not sure if you’ve noticed, but the Bears have subtracted Brandon Marshall, Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett in the last 13 months. That’s a lot of lost production. I asked Pace in Florida who would replace all that production and this was his response:

“I think now it’s on us to continue to draft well and hit on these free-agent acquisitions. I have confidence in our coaches and scouts to do that. That’s where that production will come.”

Well, so far, the Bears haven’t added a single skill position player in free agency. All of their skill position signings have been in-house players (Zach Miller, Marc Mariani, Deonte Thompson, Rob Housler). That’s a pretty good indication that they will be looking at skill position players in the draft.

And yes, the Bears already have Jeremy Langford and Ka’Deem Carey at running back, but Ezekiel Elliott is a different kind of talent. Pace and Fox tipped their hand a little bit when they offered C.J. Anderson $19 million last month — it was a clear indication that they aren’t satisfied with just Langford and Carey. If Elliott is available at No. 11 — and sitting atop their draft board — he’s a difference-maker worth adding.

2nd Round, No. 10 (41st overall) — S T.J. Green, Clemson (6-2, 209)

T.J Green is a guy who needs coaching, but the ceiling is sky high. He ran a 4.34 at the Combine and he plays just about that fast on tape. John Fox said he wants to add speed on defense and drafting Green would be a great way to do so.

There’s no question Green will be a work in progress though. He missed too many tackles last season and was only a one-year starter. Still, he and teammate Jayron Kearse formed one of the best safety duos in college football last season and Green’s height/weight/speed project very well to the next level. His instincts don’t always show well on tape, but that was partly due to his high-safety responsibilities. And despite lining up so deep so often, Green still showed great sideline-to-sideline range and downhill ability, piling up 95 tackles — an impressive total from where he lined up.

Some will say Green would be getting overdrafted in the second round, but trust me, he’s a rising top 50 prospect and a guy who would add much needed speed to the Bears’ defense and special teams units. He also returned kicks in 2014, which would add competition at a position of need for the Bears.

3rd Round, No. 9 (72nd overall) — DL Carl Nassib, Penn State (6-7, 277)

The Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year is not getting enough attention. He’s somewhat of a late-bloomer — a former walk-on who took awhile to see the field regularly, but when he did, he piled up 15.5 sacks and 19.5 TFLs as a senior. I’m not sure why this “inexperience” is perceived as a negative — minus a transfer from a MAC school, it’s almost the exact career-path as J.J. Watt.

To be clear, I’m not comparing Nassib’s ability to Watt’s, but I will compare his measurables and testing to DeForest Buckner, who I believe is the best defensive line prospect in the draft. Nassib is the same height as Buckner and faster than Buckner. He’s 14 pounds lighter, but he has the frame to add weight and he still benched as many reps (21) as Buckner. The strength, speed and size is there to be a very good five-technique in the NFL. Plus, he has the tape — and the production — to go with the measurables. Add in the work ethic to go from a walk-on to a legitimate early round draft prospect, and I think Nassib would be a great addition for the Bears, especially if they ignore the defensive line in the first two rounds.

It’s also worth noting that Bears GM Ryan Pace saw Nassib in person last season when Penn State visited Northwestern.

4th Round, No. 8 (106th overall) — QB Dak Prescott, Mississippi State

Many — including myself — have concluded that the Bears will use one of their nine draft picks to select a quarterback. What I think some fail to realize though is that the chances of drafting a future starter after the first three rounds is slim-to-none. As I evaluate this quarterback class, Prescott is the last QB (behind Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, Paxton Lynch, Christian Hackenberg and Connor Cook) who I think has the chance to be a starter eventually and the only reason I think he’ll still be available early in the fourth round is because of his recent DUI arrest.

Let’s start with the DUI. I always have grave concerns about a prospect who is stupid enough to drive drunk or fail a drug test during the draft process. This is essentially a four-month job interview and if you aren’t responsible enough to stay out of trouble when your career is on the line, then why should an NFL team invest a boat load of money in you and trust you to produce? (Extra emphasis when you’re a quarterback and will be leading an offense.) That said, I’ve been willing to take chances in the later rounds with some of these guys and while the fourth round isn’t necessarily late, Prescott has no other incidents with the law and by all accounts this DUI was out of character for him.

While I’m not convinced Prescott will definitely become a starter in this league, I am intrigued. He has good size, speed and athleticism to along with good enough arm strength and accuracy. When the pocket is clean, he shows good footwork and mechanics, but that tends to get out of whack when under pressure and Prescott was frequently running for his life at Mississippi State.

Without a doubt there will be an adjustment, but Prescott wouldn’t be entering a situation with the Bears where he needs to play early. If he can spend two or three years developing, I think he has a chance to start down the road. In the meantime, he would add needed competition at the backup spot and could even be worked into the offense as a mobile red zone threat if new offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains wants to get creative.

4th Round, No. 29 (127th overall, via New England) — CB Will Redmond, Mississippi State (5-11, 182)

An odd college career that began with an NCAA violation and ended with a torn ACL limited Redmond to just 27 games played and only seven starts, but in his limited time on the field, he looked like the four-star recruit he was billed to be. Redmond possesses good quickness and footwork and can play both press and zone coverage. He’s probably a tad smaller than Vic Fangio would prefer, but you’re not going to get a perfect build this late in the draft. He’s a very willing tackler and should at least be a slot corner and solid special teamer. The ceiling is much higher though as Redmond has the traits to start on the outside in the NFL. His availability for 2016 is in question after the knee injury, but that’s why he’s still available this late in the fourth round. I like the value.

5th Round, No. 11 (150th overall) — FB/TE Dan Vitale, Northwestern (6-1, 239)

After trading Martellus Bennett to New England, the Bears struck out in trying to land restricted free agent tight end Josh Hill, who the Saints retained. As a result, the Bears’ tight end depth is suspect and they’re putting a lot of faith in oft-injured Zach Miller to carry a big load. This is not a great tight end draft class, which puts the Bears in a tough spot right now.

One solution could be Northwestern’s Dan Vitale, a unique prospect because he projects as a pass-catching fullback at the next level. Frankly, Vitale runs better routes than most of the wide receivers in this draft and any concerns about his blocking ability were put to rest at the Senior Bowl when he held up just fine. Both he and teammate Dean Lowry dominated the Combine, a testament to TCBOOST, the training facility in Northbrook where the two are working out.

Vitale probably isn’t big enough to ever be a dominating pass-catching tight end at the NFL level, but he certainly can be a plug-and-play H-back who can block on both run and pass downs while also creating mismatches out of the backfield when he runs routes. Because of his unique ability, opposing defenses are going to have to plan for him, identify him and shift attention to him when he is on the field.

Vitale would also be an immediate upgrade to the Bears’ special teams unit. Despite being a four-year starter at Northwestern, Vitale was frequently used on special teams and can step in right away and play on fourth down.

6th Round, No. 10 (185th overall) — OT Stephane Nembot, Colorado (6-6, 322)

I’m always searching for sneaky upside this late in the draft and Nembot brings exactly that. The Cameroon native didn’t start playing football until late in high school and he started out at Colorado as a defensive end. In other words, he’s very raw as an offensive lineman. That said, he improved every year in college and finished his career by switching from right tackle to left tackle with positive results.

Nembot is going to be a project. He needs to get stronger and his technique is still a mess. The good news is he keeps getting better and the traits/measurables point to a future starting offensive tackle in the NFL. Nembot probably needs a year to develop on the practice squad, much like the Bears did with Charles Leno Jr., a seventh round pick in 2014 who is now their starting left tackle.

6th Round, No. 31 (206th overall, via Carolina) — EDGE Romeo Okwara, Notre Dame (6-5, 265)

We’re moving late into the sixth round now so options with upside are dwindling, but Okwara is still only 21 years old despite graduating from Notre Dame and his production as a senior (eight sacks, 12.5 TFLs) was impressive. Okwara has the speed and athleticism to work as a 3-4 outside linebacker in the NFL, but he needs to get stronger. He’s not great against the run and struggles to shed blocks. The pass rush ability is evident, however, and there’s untapped potential here. I could see Okwara as a guy who is frequently inactive on game day as a rookie, but can provide depth as a situational edge rusher as he develops.

7th Round, No. 9 (230th overall) — DT Aziz Shittu, Stanford (6-3, 279)

The Rose Bowl defensive MVP broke out as a senior, enough to make himself a little bit of money as a late round pick. Admittedly, Shittu is more of a gap-shooter than a gap-stuffer, so I see him as a rotational player on passing downs. The Bears still frequently show four-down fronts under Vic Fangio and they could use more penetration in those situations. They could certainly do worse than Shittu in the seventh round.