Bleacher Bums Forum

Moises Ballesteros has a .324 OPS in 50 PA with the Angels.

18 runs in 8 games for the Nationals since the Cubs left town.

Before the Bonds/McGwire/Sosa era, 500 career HR was basically a lock for the Hall of Fame. With that in mind, is Kyle Schwarber ultimately going to go into the HOF? He hit is 40th of the season and 380th of his career last night.

Since 2022, he has averaged 45 HR a season (and that average will probably be around 46 or 47 by the end of the season since he'll hit a few more this year). He's under contract until 2030, so he only has to average 30 HR/season for the rest of his contract to get to 500. He'll also still only be 37, so he might go year-to-year for a few years after that.

He's not going to come close to the modern WAR benchmarks, but it's more likely than not that he's going to get to 500 HR (if he ages well, he might push 550 or even 600). Add in the fact that everyone in the media loves him (something you couldn't say about Bonds/McGwire/Sosa/Palmeiro), and I could see him making it.

Before the Bonds/McGwire/Sosa era, 500 career HR was basically a lock for the Hall of Fame. With that in mind, is Kyle Schwarber ultimately going to go into the HOF? He hit is 40th of the season and 380th of his career last night.

Since 2022, he has averaged 45 HR a season (and that average will probably be around 46 or 47 by the end of the season since he'll hit a few more this year). He's under contract until 2030, so he only has to average 30 HR/season for the rest of his contract to get to 500. He'll also still only be 37, so he might go year-to-year for a few years after that.

He's not going to come close to the modern WAR benchmarks, but it's more likely than not that he's going to get to 500 HR (if he ages well, he might push 550 or even 600). Add in the fact that everyone in the media loves him (something you couldn't say about Bonds/McGwire/Sosa/Palmeiro), and I could see him making it.

If he gets to 600 he's making it for sure, and he should.

If he gets to 500, he should be a lock for HOF. the only players in the 500 club to not make it to the HOF are implicated of, or admitted to using PEDs'.

Hes' also hitting HR's at a very impressive pace in terms of PA per hr. Harper has hit 390 in his career, and has taken 8236 PA to do so, Schwarber is at 380 in 5957.

500 he makes it. IMO it’s just too big a milestone to ignore, and what he lacks in other aspects of his game he makes up for in rate of hrs. I think the voters let him in if he gets to 500.

If he gets to 500, he should be a lock for HOF. the only players in the 500 club to not make it to the HOF are implicated of, or admitted to using PEDs'. Hes' also hitting HR's at a very impressive pace in terms of PA per hr. Harper has hit 390 in his career, and has taken 8236 PA to do so, Schwarber is at 380 in 5957.

Schwarber has 22-24 career WAR depending on the WAR system. Voters really look at this now and he’s woefully short. Harper has 57 WAR. Schwarber worlds away from Harper WAR.

No way that 500 homers alone is getting Schwarber in HOF.

Bregman has twice the career WAR of Schwarber and has a long way to go to be a strong HOF candidate. Also has a much better OPS+ than Schwarber.

Schwarber has a career .232 batting average. Lowest non-catcher BA in HOF is Killebrew who was .256 BA and almost 600 homers (573).

Killebrew had 60 WAR and very little non-homer value. The case for Schwarber is as a Killebrew comp but he’s probably going to be way short of Killebrew in WAR. Also,  Killebrew was a 13-time All-Star, won a MVP, and had 7 Top 10 MVP finishes. Schwarber has not won a MVP, 4 All-Stars, and only one Top 10 MVP finish.

Think that Schwarber will need a bunch more 50 homer seasons well into his 30s—and an MVP would help. Maybe he can do that. But 500 homers alone won’t be enough. All the other components of HOF status are well short absent an incredible showing to come in future years. Would not put that past him, so maybe— but long way to go I think.

If Schwabs maintains his sub 14 pa per hr pace. Hes a 2nd ballot hof player out 500 hrs nothing else needed.