Author Topic: Hot Stove  (Read 102190 times)

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2325 on: July 31, 2025, 08:35:30 pm »
I'm a bit nervous about Boyd's level of performance over the next 2+ months.  If he stays strong, it will be huge.
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2326 on: July 31, 2025, 08:41:19 pm »
Don't fetishize the prospects.  We lost Gallagher?  Draft another one next year.

I agree.  Gallagher is a decent prospect, but decent prospects are easily replaceable, each draft or each offseason.  But young, controllable potential stars are NOT easily replaceable, and shouldn't be traded away for short term benefit.

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2327 on: July 31, 2025, 08:43:15 pm »
Except for the fact that he would be a fourth lefty starter, Valdez looks to be a perfect fit for the Cubs this offseason.

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2328 on: July 31, 2025, 08:54:29 pm »
Except for the fact that he would be a fourth lefty starter, Valdez looks to be a perfect fit for the Cubs this offseason.

I would prefer Cease (for reasons of fit and otherwise) but would love either one.

I must say, Hoyer’s deep-seated caution is generally a negative, but this is one instance where I consider it a plus. This was not the occasion to overpay and go all-in, and I’m glad we didn’t beat the offers for the likes of Keller and Bednar. Maybe for Suarez and Jax those were packages we might have wanted to match. Based on what the mediocre crop of rental SP was going for we can only assume the cost for the controllable guys - none of whom is a true TORP except Ryan - was comically ridiculous.

With both Horton and Brown facing workload management and Horton a guy you probably want to start a playoff game, it would be great if the Cubs could find some ingenious way to alternate them in the rotation for stretches while still keeping them stretched out enough to be useful as starters. But that would be a pretty tough ask.

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2329 on: July 31, 2025, 09:05:58 pm »
Counsell will have every opportunity to earn his salary in figuring out how to optimize the effectiveness of our pitching for the rest of the season.

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2330 on: July 31, 2025, 09:25:17 pm »
The Athletic just provided their take on "winners and losers" from the MLB trade deadline. You probably know which category they placed Cubs in.

Chicago Cubs

Sometimes when you snooze, you lose. No contender needs a great starter like the Cubs. There was plenty of smoke, but when the deadline came and went, there was no fire. The Cubs got three veteran pitchers — starter Michael Soroka and relievers Andrew Kittredge and Taylor Rogers — and utility player Willi Castro, a league-average hitter. That’s all. They declined to part with the top prospects that might have brought back a top-end starter. They also decided not to upgrade the lineup in their one (and only?) season with Kyle Tucker. The answer to their third-base question, apparently, is Matt Shaw staying hot. It was a surprisingly conservative approach in a crucial season.

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2331 on: July 31, 2025, 09:42:28 pm »
This was not the occasion to overpay and go all-in

I disagree, I think this was the obvious time to go all-in.

They have the second best record in MLB right now (1 game behind the leaders), so they obviously have the ability to win this year. Without Tucker in 2026, they're probably going to be worse than they are now. MLB might not even play the 2027 season. I'm not optimistic about their current set of flawed upper level prospects--Shaw is overmatched, Ballesteros is probably a DH, and Caissie/Alcantara are going to struggle to make enough contact to succeed in MLB.

I think this season is by far the best opportunity the Cubs are going to have to win a championship in the Hoyer era. I think it's all downhill starting next year. I hope I'm wrong.

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2332 on: July 31, 2025, 09:45:50 pm »
Except for the fact that he would be a fourth lefty starter, Valdez looks to be a perfect fit for the Cubs this offseason.

No chance they'll spend the money it takes to get him. They need to save some money so they have the flexibility to make their big 2026 trade deadline move.

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2333 on: July 31, 2025, 09:50:23 pm »
No chance they'll spend the money it takes to get him. They need to save some money so they have the flexibility to make their big 2026 trade deadline move.

It's hard to see how the 26 payroll is even at face-saving level without at least one pretty major FA signing.

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2334 on: July 31, 2025, 09:55:32 pm »
There is clearly an assumption on the board that Tucker will not be back. At least one person has concluded that the fact that Caisie was not traded essentially guarantees that. Not sure why, since I doubt that neither the Cubs nor Tucker yet know with certainty whether he will br back. It is very reasonable to believe it to be extremely likely that he will not be back. But I keep getting confused about the readiness with which some are ready to conclude, apparently with certainty, various conclusions about the future. Seems to me that much about the future in baseball is far from certain. For example, I don't think anyone expected that at this point in the season the only team in MLB with a better record than the Cubs would be the Brewers.

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2335 on: July 31, 2025, 10:24:38 pm »
There is clearly an assumption on the board that Tucker will not be back. At least one person has concluded that the fact that Caisie was not traded essentially guarantees that. Not sure why, since I doubt that neither the Cubs nor Tucker yet know with certainty whether he will br back. It is very reasonable to believe it to be extremely likely that he will not be back. But I keep getting confused about the readiness with which some are ready to conclude, apparently with certainty, various conclusions about the future.

I believe that there were two Top 100 prospects traded at the deadline. It’s rare. None at 2024 deadline.

So, to infer that the Cubs failure to trade a Top 50 prospect (Caissie) is indicative of anything other than it’s rare to trade a top prospect at the deadline is, well, absurd.

Very likely that Cubs will try to re-sign Tucker. Think Cubs will make a real effort. My guess is that likelihood of Cubs being successful at that is about similar odds of Dodgers winning the 2025 World Series or NL pennant:  about 20.5% to 32.1% according to Fangraphs. Odds against it but could well happen. Maybe as low as 1 out of 5 chance or, at top end, about 1 out of 3. Just will have to play out. I know some folks think they know what will happen in the future. Actually, they don’t.

In any case, if Cubs fail to re-sign Tucker, it won’t be because they hung on to Caissie at the trade deadline. 



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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2336 on: August 01, 2025, 12:25:14 am »
Apparently, Willi Castro is batting 1,000 this season.


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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2337 on: August 01, 2025, 07:41:37 am »
Another take on how Jed being Jed is a blessing and a curse.

The 2025 MLB trade deadline has come and past, and there are some big emotions throughout Cubdom based on the Cubs' dealings. But how did we get here?
North Side Baseball · northsidebaseball.com

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2338 on: August 01, 2025, 08:01:16 am »
Another take on how Jed being Jed is a blessing and a curse.

Key sentence from this piece:

“What Hoyer needed to do at this deadline was become just a little irrational.”

NO!  Being a little stupid is not a prescription for success.

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2339 on: August 01, 2025, 09:43:57 am »
Rosenthal rips new ones for Breslow and his mentor, Jed.


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