There is clearly an assumption on the board that Tucker will not be back. At least one person has concluded that the fact that Caisie was not traded essentially guarantees that. Not sure why, since I doubt that neither the Cubs nor Tucker yet know with certainty whether he will br back. It is very reasonable to believe it to be extremely likely that he will not be back. But I keep getting confused about the readiness with which some are ready to conclude, apparently with certainty, various conclusions about the future.
I believe that there were two Top 100 prospects traded at the deadline. It’s rare. None at 2024 deadline.
So, to infer that the Cubs failure to trade a Top 50 prospect (Caissie) is indicative of anything other than it’s rare to trade a top prospect at the deadline is, well, absurd.
Very likely that Cubs will try to re-sign Tucker. Think Cubs will make a real effort. My guess is that likelihood of Cubs being successful at that is about similar odds of Dodgers winning the 2025 World Series or NL pennant: about 20.5% to 32.1% according to Fangraphs. Odds against it but could well happen. Maybe as low as 1 out of 5 chance or, at top end, about 1 out of 3. Just will have to play out. I know some folks think they know what will happen in the future. Actually, they don’t.
In any case, if Cubs fail to re-sign Tucker, it won’t be because they hung on to Caissie at the trade deadline.