Author Topic: Hot Stove  (Read 102214 times)

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2505 on: December 10, 2025, 10:52:40 pm »
Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer left winter meetings without making a big move.
The Athletic · nytimes.com


“We have a real focus in a lot of areas,” Hoyer said. “It will lead to activity. I can’t tell you when.”

“We could have an active December,” Hoyer said. “We could have an active January. I don’t know. We’re not going to do bad deals just to do something quick.”

Q's: 

Just save the bad deals for January-February?  That's when Pressly, Neris, Turner, Mancini get signed! 

Does Jed's value-calculation program factor inflation?  Like, does he consider current deals "bad" because his computer is programmed based on prices from previous year and before?  Is his computer often lagging behind, maybe? 

Article also repeats Cub interest in Cabrera. 

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2506 on: December 10, 2025, 11:01:03 pm »
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6880509/2025/12/10/what-were-hearing-cubs-winter-meetings/

“We have a real focus in a lot of areas,” Hoyer said. “It will lead to activity. I can’t tell you when.”

“We could have an active December,” Hoyer said. “We could have an active January. I don’t know. We’re not going to do bad deals just to do something quick.”

Q's: 

Just save the bad deals for January-February?  That's when Pressly, Neris, Turner, Mancini get signed! 

Does Jed's value-calculation program factor inflation?  Like, does he consider current deals "bad" because his computer is programmed based on prices from previous year and before?  Is his computer often lagging behind, maybe? 

Spoiler: yes.

Also, to Jed a "bad deal" is one where you pay market value. The quality of the player has no bearing on it.

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2507 on: December 10, 2025, 11:52:46 pm »
Also, to Jed a "bad deal" is one where you pay market value. The quality of the player has no bearing on it.

Here's an Andrew Friedman quote from almost a decade ago: "If you're always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent."

Andrew Friedman must not understand the dynamics of baseball like Jed Hoyer does. What has that guy ever done?



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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2508 on: December 11, 2025, 05:56:05 am »
When assessing whether a possible deal is "bad", finances cannot be the only lens.  There is also the matter of what effect the deal would have on the performance of the team.  You have to be willing to stretch on the finance side when the impact on the quality of the team is great enough.
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2509 on: December 11, 2025, 07:29:44 am »
Good news - Dodgers rumored to be the frontrunners for Skubal.

Presumably if that happens they'll look to deal Glasnow, which is why his name has come up in rumors too. When he's healthy he's ridiculous but $29 million is a lot for a guy who probably gives you 100 innings, give or take.

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2510 on: December 11, 2025, 09:07:33 am »
Bregman opted out of 2 years at 40M per…what exactly is he looking for?
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2511 on: December 11, 2025, 09:15:00 am »
Schwarber and Alonso got 5 year/$150-155 million deals, so that is probably the baseline.  It has been reported that he turned down a 6 year $170 million deal with the Tiger's last offseason.  Boras is at least going to want to beat that with Red Sox money factored in.

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2512 on: December 11, 2025, 09:30:22 am »
Bullpen note:  In interview this week, Counsell specifically referenced Porter Hodge.  Don't recall the wording, but basically the priority of getting him back on track.  Given how good he was two years ago, *IF* they can tweak him to control his stuff, adding "good" Hodge would be a huge addition. 

Crazy how he came out of nowhere to become the closer; then almost as quickly went back from closer to forgotten.  Could be a wildcard. 

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2513 on: December 11, 2025, 09:40:59 am »
...“We have a real focus in a lot of areas,” Hoyer said. “It will lead to activity. I can’t tell you when.”

“We could have an active December,” Hoyer said. “We could have an active January....”

Obviously they can be very active with signing non-roster.  We remember Keller more than Flexen, Trevor Richards, Ben Heller, Phil Bickford, Brandon Hughes, Brooks Kriske, Antonio Santos. 

But one each of SP, RH reliever, LH reliever, and utility player, probably one more LH reliever, I'm not sure how "active" that would be?  Especially if some of those are re-signing relievers or Castro. 

He might literally finish his "activity" with one external SP, and bringing back keller, pom, thielbar, and castro, and call it budget quits? 

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2514 on: December 11, 2025, 10:04:32 am »
He might literally finish his "activity" with one external SP, and bringing back keller, pom, thielbar, and castro, and call it budget quits? 
That would likely put them over the luxury tax and I don't think anyone is thinking the Cubs are doing that.

Here is one of the first dumpster dives.
Collin Snider statistics, splits, graphs, game logs, and more for Chicago Cubs. Comprehensive baseball stats on FanGraphs.
FanGraphs Baseball · fangraphs.com


He's a Tread guy and the Cubs hired one their coaches last year.  He was great in 2024 with the Mariners and not so good last year, but the secondary stats still weren't bad.  The big thing was he lost 2 mph on his fast ball last year and if he can get that back he's really interesting.  His fastball has an odd movement profile.

Here's more on his fastball if your interested.
DFA’d twice during the offseason, the erstwhile Royals reliever is thriving out of Seattle’s bullpen.
FanGraphs Baseball · blogs.fangraphs.com
« Last Edit: December 11, 2025, 10:06:51 am by CUBluejays »
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2515 on: December 11, 2025, 12:05:37 pm »
Robert Suarez to the Braves, 3 years, $45 million.
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2516 on: December 11, 2025, 12:12:00 pm »
Robert Suarez to the Braves, 3 years, $45 million.

Four of the five major projection sites had Suarez getting somewhat more than 3/$45.

Diaz, Williams, Suarez, Helsley—arguably the top 4 guys—have now signed.

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2517 on: December 11, 2025, 12:18:29 pm »
MLBN speculating that Suarez will setup for Iglesias…

Also stating that most clubs were at 2 years for him due to age, which is crazy to me…

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2518 on: December 11, 2025, 12:32:23 pm »
I'd have been happy with that Suarez deal.  A strike-thrower with good K/BB in front of our defense, would have been very good. 

None of the other reliever deals have seemed extravagant to me, either. 

Willingly committing $22 to Shota makes $15/year seem pretty economical. 
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2519 on: December 11, 2025, 12:40:49 pm »
That would likely put them over the luxury tax and I don't think anyone is thinking the Cubs are doing that....

Thanks for Snider info.  I like the dumpster diving. 

*IF* Gallen plus Keller-Castro-Pomeranz-Thielbar went over budget (I don't think it would, but hypothetically...) they could easily skip one of the lefty relievers. 

Last year they opened with just one lefty reliever, Thielbar.  So they could skip having two.  Or they could dumpster-dive for a 2nd one? 

*IF* they hypothetically were to bring back one but not both of Pomeranz and Thielbar, I wonder which they'd prefer?  Counsell has history with Pomeranz, and seeemd to trust him/use him more by end of year.  So maybe he'd prefer Pom.  Thielbar was really good end to end, and was more of a lefty specialist, I don't think Pom had much splits advantage against lefties.  I could see either way.  Heh heh, maybe whichever was cheaper would be Hoyer's more determinative factor!  :):)