Bleacher Bums Forum

Yeah, Cubs fill the Thielbar spot by signing Hoby Milner.

Milner’s FIPs remarkably consistent past four seasons (low 3s each season) but erratic ERAs.

Pitched for Counsell in Milwaukee.

Guessing that, a year ago, Cubs might have preferred him over Thielbar but Milner signed with Rangers a week before Cubs signed Thielbar. Milner born in Dallas, HS in Fort Worth, college at U of Texas/Austin. Probably wanted to play in hometown a year ago.

Extreme GB pitcher (might be helped by Cubs inf defense), soft tosser, modest hard hit rate. Down a velocity tick in 2025. Four years younger than Thielbar.

40-man now at 32.

That would likely put them over the luxury tax and I don't think anyone is thinking the Cubs are doing that....

Suppose:
Gallen $22
Keller $10

Thielbar Milner $3.75
Pomeranz $3.75
Castro $7.5

Sums $47. 

Would fall below lux.  Levine had reported sources telling upwards of $50-60 available. 

Do you think some of those are too low?  Beats me, if so, could easily just scratch the Pomeranz line, or replace Castro with somebody cheaper. 

But yeah, assuming they neither do a surprising unexpected player move (Bregman) or trade (Cabrera), it doesn't really seem like that complicated of an agenda for Hoyer. 

Imai could go higher, obviously. 

Pointless speculative Q:  Why Milner instead of Thielbar? 
1.  Cubs liked Milner better?  At same price, they liked Thielbar less?
2. Thielbar liked elsewhere better? 
3.  Thielbar will get higher deal? 

I never have much feel for market for old relievers. 

Then how about Pomeranz.  Is this his price-tag as well, or will he get more, or less? 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/12/cubs-to-sign-hoby-milner.html

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Suppose:
Gallen $22
Keller $10

Thielbar Milner $3.75
Pomeranz $3.75
Castro $7.5

Sums $47. 

Would fall below lux.  Levine had reported sources telling upwards of $50-60 available. 

Do you think some of those are too low?  Beats me, if so, could easily just scratch the Pomeranz line, or replace Castro with somebody cheaper. 

But yeah, assuming they neither do a surprising unexpected player move (Bregman) or trade (Cabrera), it doesn't really seem like that complicated of an agenda for Hoyer. 

Imai could go higher, obviously. 

CBT starts at $244.  That gets you to $242 will additional positions to fill and you need up/down guys plus possible trade deadline guys.  Unless the Cubs are going to be an above the luxury tax team it isn’t happening.  Outside of Levine I haven’t seen anybody thinking the Cubs are going above the CBT.

Pointless speculative Q:  Why Milner instead of Thielbar? 
1.  Cubs liked Milner better?  At same price, they liked Thielbar less?
2. Thielbar liked elsewhere better? 
3.  Thielbar will get higher deal? 

I never have much feel for market for old relievers. 

Then how about Pomeranz.  Is this his price-tag as well, or will he get more, or less? 

He’s cheap and the Cubs love contact managers, but mostly he’s cheap.  The Cubs maybe get 1 decently priced reliever, but they are disappearing fast.  I think it is looking more like the Cubs are going to try and find the 2026 version of Drew, than pay Drew.

Look, nobody knows. They’re guessing. Levine doesn’t know any more or less than Sharma or the others. All guessing based mostly on
their gut.  Basically, worthless.

Cubs went over CBT in 2024. And, had Cubs landed Bregman in 2025, would have been over again. Based on needs, one might think they’ll be over. The roster math kind of points that way. But, I have no idea.

Last thing Hoyer would ever do in life is tell the media what Cubs payroll will be.

Yes, you are tipping your hand by telling everyone your "budget". I suspect their 2026 budget is less about CBA tax (if they did not go over in 2025) and more about 2026 $$ projections. And I suspect they have a surplus in 2025 given the home playoff games and that Marques's issues were likely priced in the 2025 budget. Still, I know they don't take long-term risk so if they go big it could be a trade with an existing locked in contract or a big AAV for lessor years.

Has Sharma said he has Cubs sources telling him sub-lux?  I'm sincerely asking, I don't know, and if so hadn't realized.  Levine is the only media person I've come across who has claimed Cubs sources indicating one way or the other.  *If* Sharma has sources telling him otherwise, sub-lux, contrary to what Levine's sources supposedly said, that's interesting... and disappointing.  Obviously Hoyer and Cubs are pretty silent on this.  I've not had the idea that Mooney/Sharma are particularly inside-scooped with the Cubs?  Good at thinking and speculating, much like many of our thoughtful posters here; but do they have inside sources other than what people say in public interviews?  I don't know, maybe from podcasts that's more obvious and is so?  Levine often supposedly hears things, most of which don't come true.  But I'm kinda thinking he maybe does have a source? He had info about trade talks re Luzardo last winter that proved true, for example.  So I'm kinda thinking he may have some info that might not be wrong?  But obviously even if he has a source about what Hoyer has space to do, doesn't mean Hoyer will actually spend that all.  *IF* he doesn't see deals that he likes, he might just pocket the money like he did last year and underspend his available budget. 

Your point is also well taken that there are "additional positions to fill and you need up/down guys plus possible trade deadline guys", etc..  Cots has a bunch of money assigned for those, though, I think?  So even with those sorts of things (other than actual trade-deadline moves), Cots still shows >$49M below lux prior to Milner.