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Author Topic: Hot Stove  (Read 102214 times)

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2535 on: December 11, 2025, 07:38:04 pm »
Quote from: ticohans on December 11, 2025, 07:14:09 pm
I also wonder how the impending labor strike is impacting his market.

Assume there's a near full-year lockout. Bregman is angling for a mega-deal, he's not exactly young, and his days of being a +140 OPS hitter are behind him.

The team that signs him will get his year 32 season, could lose his year 33, and then get back on track for year 34. Teams are counting on the deal to perform better early in cycle than late, so this is consequential for Bregman suitos.

Don't get me wrong: I'd love to sign him. Think he fits the Cubs incredibly well.

But the labor issue has to factor into consideration in terms of his contract.

tico, wouldn't those factors apply to any of the FA's getting multi-year deals, wbo are past 30?  Schwarber, Alonso, Diaz, Suarez?  Do you think there deals have been pinched by the lockout?  Those deals have mostly seemed to come in above projection, not under?  Maybe all the media projections already calculated down their projections, though, beats me....
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2536 on: December 11, 2025, 07:52:10 pm »
Quote from: Deeg on December 11, 2025, 07:29:40 pm
....It's deceptive to say Bregman walked away from 2/$80 - there were substantial deferrments that would have lowered that number considerably. Still, you wonder if he'll regret that choice. He might end up signing for something like 3/80 or 4/100, in which case even the Cubs might be involved.

bregman's lux-tax AAV was calculated at $31.7 for his 3-year Boston deal, I think?  So if he was essentially walking away from $63.5/2 instead of $80/2, he's got a good shot to get more guaranteed dollars on a longer deal.  And if he doesn't, I don't think he'll have lost much. 

To repeat a thought from yesterday, *IF* he was available at your hypothetical 4/100, $25AAV, you wouldn't need to spend on a utility guy, Shaw could play that.  So for the 2026 budget, adding a $25AAV but obviating a $7-8 utility-Castro AAV might not be that budget severe?  And might improve two roster spots? 
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2537 on: December 11, 2025, 07:57:52 pm »
The labor thing is hard to process.  I wonder how many teams are planning to shut down for the whole season? 
* 2022 lockout cost ~6 games? 
*1995, ~18 games? 
*1994 ~7 weeks plus postseason. 

Past is past, who knows future.  But I guess I'm wondering whether anybody is really planning to shut down the whole 2026 season?  If the owners are making as much money as people say, do they really want to kill a full season when they're already doing pretty well with status quo?  I'm kinda thinking that if they lose a few games or a few weeks, that's not as impactful as bagging the whole season.  Would the prospect of a limited shutdown impact FA very much now, I wonder? 
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2538 on: December 11, 2025, 07:58:35 pm »
Nothing deceptive about it…everyone is aware of the deferrals, and the bottom line is that he was being paid 80M for a 2 year contract.
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2539 on: December 11, 2025, 08:00:32 pm »
Bruce Levine via Marquee’s Twitter
“If I was a Cubs fan, I would trust (Jed and Carter) more … I don’t think Hoyer, Hawkins, and the Cubs should be penalized for being successful without spending a lot of money


We have fallen from TheoMs version of success, to winning 1 wild card series in five years being a success.  I miss Jim Hendry.
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2540 on: December 11, 2025, 08:29:45 pm »
Quote from: CUBluejays on December 11, 2025, 08:00:32 pm
Bruce Levine via Marquee’s Twitter
“If I was a Cubs fan, I would trust (Jed and Carter) more … I don’t think Hoyer, Hawkins, and the Cubs should be penalized for being successful without spending a lot of money


We have fallen from TheoMs version of success, to winning 1 wild card series in five years being a success.  I miss Jim Hendry.

Consider the source on that one. Levine has been sipping the Kool-aid for years.
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2541 on: December 11, 2025, 08:40:48 pm »
Quote from: craig on December 11, 2025, 07:52:10 pm
bregman's lux-tax AAV was calculated at $31.7 for his 3-year Boston deal, I think?  So if he was essentially walking away from $63.5/2 instead of $80/2, he's got a good shot to get more guaranteed dollars on a longer deal.  And if he doesn't, I don't think he'll have lost much. 

To repeat a thought from yesterday, *IF* he was available at your hypothetical 4/100, $25AAV, you wouldn't need to spend on a utility guy, Shaw could play that.  So for the 2026 budget, adding a $25AAV but obviating a $7-8 utility-Castro AAV might not be that budget severe?  And might improve two roster spots? 

Another factor with Bregman that may be making suitors nervous is that his arm strength is already at the lower end for 3B, and he'll be 32 at the start of next season. Will he be able to stay there for the length of a 5-year contract and, if not, can he play an where else besides 1B (where his bat would potentially be a liability)?
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2542 on: December 11, 2025, 09:54:03 pm »
Quote from: craig on December 11, 2025, 07:38:04 pm
tico, wouldn't those factors apply to any of the FA's getting multi-year deals, wbo are past 30?  Schwarber, Alonso, Diaz, Suarez?  Do you think there deals have been pinched by the lockout?  Those deals have mostly seemed to come in above projection, not under?  Maybe all the media projections already calculated down their projections, though, beats me....

Sure, true for all older FA's, and FA's in general.

But I think Bregman's situation is acute. Feels like the separation between his view of his worth and the market's is larger than any of the other big FA's this winter.
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2543 on: December 11, 2025, 10:31:27 pm »
I don't think I'm seeing the contracts for the FA's signed thus far, Cease, Schwarber, Alonso, to be suppressed or diminished at all by lockout?  They seem inflated as per usual, maybe inflated even higher than normal inflation? 

Bregman is his own case, so "acute" may be right.  But, he's a Boras guy; Boras routinely set targets way beyond market value.  Arrieta, Bellinger, etc..  Eventually he settles into whatever deal the market actually offers.  And usually Boras stretches it out.  Alonso taking a deal so fast, that's really surprising for a Boras guy.  But I imagine Boras will take his time with Bregman, Bellinger, etc..  Its worked well for him, why mess with a successful approach?. 
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2544 on: December 11, 2025, 10:34:34 pm »
Quote from: craig on December 11, 2025, 10:31:27 pm
I don't think I'm seeing the contracts for the FA's signed thus far, Cease, Schwarber, Alonso, to be suppressed or diminished at all by lockout?  They seem inflated as per usual, maybe inflated even higher than normal inflation? 

Bregman is his own case, so "acute" may be right.  But, he's a Boras guy; Boras routinely set targets way beyond market value.  Arrieta, Bellinger, etc..  Eventually he settles into whatever deal the market actually offers.  And usually Boras stretches it out.  Alonso taking a deal so fast, that's really surprising for a Boras guy.  But I imagine Boras will take his time with Bregman, Bellinger, etc..  Its worked well for him, why mess with a successful approach?. 

Because it's not always successful, for starters. It works a lot of the time but some of his clients have gotten screwed by that strategy.
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2545 on: December 11, 2025, 11:12:02 pm »
Sometimes, guys don’t really want to play for certain teams or cities.

Players with partial no-trade clauses designate certain teams don’t want to go to.

So, Bregman turned down 6/$171.5 from Tigers a year ago. Maybe he just didn’t want to play there, for whatever reason.

And Tigers were the only team offering lots of years. Cubs offered four. Red Sox offered three. Maybe if Cubs offered 6/$171.5 a year ago, he takes that.

He wants long-term…..to a place he wants to go.  Maybe not so complicated. So, he takes a deal with a year-one opt out.

And he opts out. New season. New negotiation. Will see what happens.

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2546 on: December 11, 2025, 11:21:54 pm »
Quote from: Deeg on December 11, 2025, 08:40:48 pm
Another factor with Bregman that may be making suitors nervous is that his arm strength is already at the lower end for 3B, and he'll be 32 at the start of next season. Will he be able to stay there for the length of a 5-year contract and, if not, can he play an where else besides 1B (where his bat would potentially be a liability)?

Bregman is throwing with more velocity now (82.3) than he did five years ago in 2020 (81.5).

A total non-issue (kinda like Shaw’s alleged “rag arm”).

If Bregman declines with age, it will be getting injury prone, or bat speed, or the like. His arm will be fine.
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2547 on: December 11, 2025, 11:39:44 pm »
Quote from: ticohans on December 11, 2025, 07:14:09 pm
I also wonder how the impending labor strike is impacting his market.

Assume there's a near full-year lockout. Bregman is angling for a mega-deal, he's not exactly young, and his days of being a +140 OPS hitter are behind him.

The team that signs him will get his year 32 season, could lose his year 33, and then get back on track for year 34. Teams are counting on the deal to perform better early in cycle than late, so this is consequential for Bregman suitors.

Don't get me wrong: I'd love to sign him. Think he fits the Cubs incredibly well.

But the labor issue has to factor into consideration in terms of his contract.

Think that the labor issue impact on free agency is overblown.

Not a non-factor but exaggerated, I think.

If assume “a near full-year lockout” then Bregman earns ZERO for that season. A 5-year deal turns into a 4-year deal. True, he still ages but perhaps mitigated by no wear-and-tear that season. Might even help some guys get fully healthy.

In any case, a lost season applies to everybody. If you trade for two years of control of MacKenzie Gore, you get one year. Three years of Edward Cabrera, you get two years. Pre-arb guys earn a year of seniority w/out their clubs benefiting from the pre-arb salary—because they’re not playing.

No pay but an eventual settlement always has earned service credit for the work stoppage period. If MLBPA can’t get that, then you’ll know the Union was broken….and enjoy the new salary cap!
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2548 on: December 12, 2025, 12:21:17 pm »
Ron Darling just mentioned the O’s and Cubs as best fits for Framber Valdez.

To paraphrase…”could you imagine that extreme groundball pitcher with guys like Shaw, Swanson, Hoerner, and Busch behind him?”

It’s really a perfect fit. Don’t overthink it, Jed…just do it…
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2549 on: December 12, 2025, 12:22:43 pm »
Christopher Morel to the Marlins. Expected to play first base.
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