Author Topic: Hot Stove  (Read 102267 times)

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2730 on: December 23, 2025, 11:55:07 am »
Agree, Ron, I think Hoyer values character qualities a lot.  Nico seems 100th percentile. 

The Bregman flirtation has a lot to do with character and clubhouse impact.

Absent that component, would be very uncharacteristic of Hoyer to offer a player in neighborhood of $30M AAV to play a position currently occupied by a promising pre-arb player with less than $1M impact on payroll.

Probably won’t happen but seems like Cubs would like it to happen. Would be unusual allocation of resources but Hoyer values the character impact (plus obviously the skill set, above all).

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2731 on: December 23, 2025, 12:01:08 pm »
Never know, of course, but hard to see both Caissie and Ballesteros on opening day roster.

Possible that Ballesteros wins primary DH spot but guessing Cubs still want to see if he can make progress as a catcher. Not going to keep three catchers to open season, so that means Iowa.

If Caissie stumbles in April, don’t think Cubs will wait too long to switch DH to Ballesteros—and catching progress be d amned. Kind of a balance of interests there, I think.

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2732 on: December 23, 2025, 12:07:35 pm »
craig - I'm a bit surprised you seem to assume that the Cubs won't have both Caissie and Ballesteros on the 25 man roster to start the season. Caissie certainly seems to be a sure thing and Counsell raved about Ballesteros' ability at the plate. It certainly seemed like he expects him to be on the team next year, but maybe I'm wrong about that.

Ron, I was understanding Alcantara to have no options left and being on the roster.  But with Alcantara having an option, that opens a spot. 

Suppose we assume both Moises and Caissie, that really leaves just one utility infielder spot left. 
-Austin-Caissie-Moises-Amaya/Kelly, that's 4, none with infield capacity.  One spot left. 

Reb had suggested having caissie or Moises but not both, and instead adding a good-hitting RH OFer type.  *IF* they did add a good hitter, it wouldn't kill me if Moises got more developmental time at Iowa, to optimize his catching and to work on hitting with more power. 

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2733 on: December 23, 2025, 12:24:40 pm »
Cubs sign Jacob Webb to $1.5 million with a club option for $2.5 million in 2027.  Incentives can drive it up to $2 million and $3 million in 2027.

Jacob Webb statistics, splits, graphs, game logs, and more for Chicago Cubs. Comprehensive baseball stats on FanGraphs.
FanGraphs Baseball · fangraphs.com

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2734 on: December 23, 2025, 12:37:29 pm »
On what Cubs might do with Happ (and Suzuki) after 2026——think that development of Kepley and Conrad in 2026 will be a factor.

Some advanced college guys move very fast. Nick Kurtz and Cam Smith were drafted in 2024 and were big league regulars in 2025.

Kepley in particular might move fast with his OBP skill set. Guessing that will get a lot of AA ABs in 2026 and could be on cusp of big leagues sometime in 2027 if everything plays out as hoped. Love the notion of both PCA and Kepley side-by-side defensively—some serious OF range there and Kepley’s arm perhaps better suited to LF.

Of course, premature until see how Kepley hits at higher levels but could well impact Happ’s future here.

Conrad could move fast too. Will see.

2025 draft could have massive impact on Cubs future OF. 

Cubs, of course, also drafted Josiah Hartshorn—who might be able to stay in OF. Had a RF arm.  FWIW, Hartshorn $2M bonus was biggest 6th round bonus in the history of MLB draft, so Cubs really like this guy.

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2735 on: December 23, 2025, 12:56:08 pm »
Cubs sign Jacob Webb to $1.5 million with a club option for $2.5 million in 2027.  Incentives can drive it up to $2 million and $3 million in 2027.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jacob-webb/19274/stats/pitching

This is one all-time boring offseason for the Cubs so far.

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2736 on: December 23, 2025, 12:57:10 pm »
Cubs sign Jacob Webb to $1.5 million with a club option for $2.5 million in 2027. 

Webb was non-tendered the same day that Rangers also non-tendered Adolis Garcia and Jonah Heim in a veteran purge. Given Cubs 40-man roster room and Webb modest contract, seems like a potentially useful move.

This is sort of the Eli Morgan roster spot who Cubs non-tendered on same day as Rangers non-tendered Webb and projected to similar contract as this Webb deal.

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2737 on: December 23, 2025, 01:02:43 pm »
This is one all-time boring offseason for the Cubs so far.

What? You think that deconstructing how Jacob Webb compares to Eli Morgan is boring? 

Years ago, some guy got a PhD comparing Don Dillard to Dan Dobbek.

Check out the latest Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More of Dan Dobbek. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, draft status, bats, throws, school and more on Baseb...
baseball-reference.com

Check out the latest Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More of Don Dillard. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, draft status, bats, throws, school and more on Base...
baseball-reference.com

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2738 on: December 23, 2025, 03:05:30 pm »
The Chicago Cubs have filled four important roles (and four 40-man roster spots) for less than $18 million in early shopping this winter. Now, their eyes are fixed on the big, expensive prizes rema...
North Side Baseball · northsidebaseball.com


"Before he signed with the Phillies for $22 million over two years, Brad Keller came to the Cubs and expressed a willingness to sign for less, according to two sources with knowledge of the conversation. The Cubs passed."

With every non-move or K-mart move, I again wonder "what are they saving it for?" 

Perhaps partly whiny; but mostly it's a sincere question.  Saving for something big, but who?  Saving for something, but just one or maybe a second significant move? 

Or just saving in case of a bargain, but in the real world it will always be "that's too much", "that's too long", "our value model didn't really justify that much" for every good player?  So the answer to "what are they saving it for" will be for nothing? 
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2739 on: December 23, 2025, 03:49:10 pm »
With every non-move or K-mart move, I again wonder "what are they saving it for?"   
Brain Roberts and Jake Peavy were seen singing "Go Cubs GO" at the Cubby Bear today. 
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2740 on: December 23, 2025, 04:35:38 pm »
Present bullpen:
Guaranteed FA contracts:  Harvey, Phil Maton, Webb, Millner (LH), Thielbar (LH) (5)
Palancia (6)
Rea, Assad (8)


Options:  Hodge, Brown, Wicks, Little
Non-roster guy with some upside:  Snider.

I think Hoyer may be done for guaranteed-contract FA relievers?  If you sign more, you're just going to have to cut one (or more), in the event none are disabled by season start. 


With Hodge, Brown, Wicks, and Little all scheduled for Iowa, I feel like bullpen is already reasonably deep. 

I know the FA's are old or injury-prone or both.  So, yeah, I get they aren't all going to both make it out of camp and make it effectively into August.  But seems to me adding more guaranteed guys is pointless, and really Webb is the only guy under $3.75.  Doubt Hoyer will see enough from any of the ≥$3.75 guys to cut them in camp. 


Point being, I think remaining bullpen additions will either be non-roster guys; 40-man waiver pickups who can be released easily; or major-league-contract FA's who can get released in camp without full contract obligation. 
« Last Edit: December 28, 2025, 07:12:39 am by craig »

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2741 on: December 23, 2025, 04:42:49 pm »
https://northsidebaseball.com/news-rumors/chicago-cubs/after-strong-cluster-of-small-moves-cubs-well-positioned-for-big-game-hunting-r2419/

"Before he signed with the Phillies for $22 million over two years, Brad Keller came to the Cubs and expressed a willingness to sign for less, according to two sources with knowledge of the conversation. The Cubs passed."

With every non-move or K-mart move, I again wonder "what are they saving it for?" 

Perhaps partly whiny; but mostly it's a sincere question.  Saving for something big, but who?  Saving for something, but just one or maybe a second significant move? 

Or just saving in case of a bargain, but in the real world it will always be "that's too much", "that's too long", "our value model didn't really justify that much" for every good player?  So the answer to "what are they saving it for" will be for nothing?

The link says for one big piece and $40M left to spend.

My guess the other day was $40 M to spend too but not sure how anybody could actually KNOW it’s $40 to spend.  I’m just guessing.

A year ago, Bregman signed in mid-February with Cubs having an offer on table to him of $28 AAV. Cubs 2025 payroll would have been around $255 had he accepted. Reports were that Bregman was a special case for Ricketts and Hoyer re. payroll.. Maybe he is now a special case too. Who knows?

Very disappointing if true that Keller wanted to come back at less money and Cubs declined.
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2742 on: December 23, 2025, 06:12:25 pm »
This is one all-time boring offseason for the Cubs so far.

The Marlins or Pirates would heartily approve.

Webb is another perfectly fine signing, in a vacuum. A boring, competent contact manager who fits as your 5th or 6th-best reliever.

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2743 on: December 23, 2025, 06:41:12 pm »
Keller wanted to sign a below market deal with the Cubs and we're telling him no?

So we have enough spare change for other teams' reject relievers?

What are we even doing here???
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2744 on: December 23, 2025, 07:13:25 pm »
I'mma assume that's a rhetorical question.