Bleacher Bums Forum

Cubs org is up against a frightening talent cliff over the next couple of years…….
 
I’m really struggling to see how we field a competitive roster in 2027 and beyond, because the only way to reliably restock on talent quickly is to spend a **** ton of cash. And we all know that’s not going to happen, especially with the lockout looming.

Cubs payroll commitment for 2027 is $55 M.  You don’t think Cubs will have and spend a “ton of cash” when 2027 comes around? May well include some extensions.

There are zero bad contracts on the books. Three of the four IF spots are on board already. PCA and a bunch of interesting OF prospects. Amaya at catcher. Horton, Steele, a multi-year FA soon (hopefully). Perhaps Wiggins.  And a ton of money to spend on top of the $55 M.

Yes, absence of percolating lower level prospects is concerning but can be addressed with a couple consecutive good drafts.

No need to be alarmist.

Cubs org is up against a frightening talent cliff over the next couple of years.

Most of our post-arb contracts expire after this year, with Dansby the only guaranteed contract in 2027. Barring a sweeping overhaul of the major league roster, our “competitive window” (aka praying for a wild card) likely closes after this year.

Signing Hoerner, Suzuki, etc. to extensions will further squeeze payroll, and we don’t have enough headroom as is.  Most of our best minor league talent is expected to stick at the big league level this year, with very little depth behind Mo, Caissie, and Wiggins. ...

I’m really struggling to see how we field a competitive roster in 2027 and beyond, because the only way to reliably restock on talent quickly is to spend a **** ton of cash. ....

I'm more optimistic. Depends on youth movement for sure.  Suppose PCA improves to .780.  Caissie has the walks and HR's to be .760.  Amaya .730.  Moises .750.  Shaw improves to .735.  (League average was .719.)  If those guys can look like solid average-or-better bats, you can have a pretty deep lineup.  But if PCA is auto-out, and the other guys can't hit at all, it will be hard. 

Success might help?  *IF* we win ≥92, the youth bats look solid, and Horton-Wicks look dynamite, Hoerner-Suzuki might be happy to re-sign.  Offers equal, stay home.  But if it's a losing season, and the youth movement looks unpromising, those guys might prefer to find a spot with a winning team, and offers being equal they may prefer to move out?  Winning helps a lot. 

If there are guys you want to keep, none will cost huge raises.  Happ and Seiya are already $19, their next deals might be higher, but they won't get $10 individual raises.  If some of the young guys can look good, you can let some expiring veteran salaries go, to cover inflation on extending the expiring vets that you really want to keep.  For example, maybe Hoerner and Seiya you want to keep, and any/all of Happ, Taillon, Shota, and Boyd you're fine to let go. 

It seems that the climate in our country is divisiveness.  Now we have anti-Hoyerites and pro-Hoyerites.  As long as fans keep coming, nothing in the approach of the Cubs' front office is going to change.  Here in Cardinal territory, the angst is palpable.  8000 fans a night didn't show for Cardinal games.  I'm using numbers bandied about by the local media.  They, the Cardinals, look at every ticket fee, concessions, and parking is worth $200.  That's a loss of 130 Million dollars.  The Cardinal and Cub fan bases are similar.  If the Ricketts were to begin to realize the same impact, Hoyeritism would disappear because he'd be gone.  That is a number of years off yet, I'm afraid.

It seems that the climate in our country is divisiveness.  Now we have anti-Hoyerites and pro-Hoyerites.  ....

On the continuum, plenty of 1st-percentile anti-Hoyerites!  But maybe zero ardent 99th-percentile Hoyer advocates?  Heh heh, maybe the "pro-Hoyerites" are kinda only 35th-45th percentile supporters? 

LOL  I wasn't trying to develop a Fox News vs. CNN debate.  I was pointing out how even the best of fans, like Cubs and Cardinals, can lose patience and how costly it can be.  If Cub fans boycotted the first series or two this spring, Hoyer would be gone.  No need to tell me that won't happen, but we fans have power, we just love the team too much to use it.

Caleb Kilian signs with SF.

With Canario gone to Japan, that closes the book on the Bryant trade…

Hypothetical:
Bellinger => Yankees
Bregman => Red Sox
Suarez => Mets
Gallen => DBacks
Bichette => Toronto?
Tucker => Dodgers? 
Framber => Philly?

Just guessing, as an exercise.  Dumb thoughts:
1.  Will any of these sign two tickets?  Yankees or Mets, maybe?  Yankees and Mets, of course, are >3-times lux, so any contract will get 110% tax.  So, $30M for Bellinger, for example, is really $63.  Yankees, One  signing will get them back to last year's budget, but not much over.  Mets are >$40 below last year's payroll, so two signings would inflate their payroll some.  Why not, they're the Mets! 
Toronto is only a 2nd-time repeater, and they aren't $60M over yet, so their next signing would be taxed in the 70-90% range, obviously if they sign two the second one will be 90%.  And obviously after this season, assuming next CBA isn't that much different, a $35 signing now will maybe only cost $65 this year, but will be >$75/year next year. 

2.  Will any of them sign none?  Maybe Dodgers won't, unless the price is sub-market, as always happens with Dodger deals?  Tucker at $40 is effectively $84 with tax.  Maybe they won't feel like doing that, and they'll just sit this winter out?  Arizona is below last year's payroll, and is just below the Cubs.  Maybe they'll pick up either Bregman or Gallen, but maybe after Gallen's 4.83 ERA and 15-loss 1-WAR season, they don't really think he's worth $23 anymore, and will sit out the tickets?  Philly's payroll will already be increased once they re-sign Realmuto, and obvioulsy they're in the 110% tax range.  So do they want to be investing $60/year in cats like Suarez or Framber?  Maybe they'll be out? 

3.  Obviously there are other teams.   Baltimore, Atlanta, Houston, Texas, Detroit, who knows? 

4.  Just trying to think about whether the competition might kinda run out, and if one of the 7 tickets might end up getting a soft market where Hoyer's wait-for-cheap might actually work?  Any one of those 7 guys could help us, I think.  But yeah, *IF* both Philly and Arizona sat out the big tickets, and Dodgers maybe didn't really love Tucker's slow bat-speed enough to spend $80/year on him, perhaps Hoyer will wait and wait, and eventually the last ticket standing will settle for a cubs deal?