Bleacher Bums Forum

Yeah, with Cabrera’s salary on the books that sounds right.

Law's input is interesting.  Yeah, that's what I'd understood as well, that Cabrera is 4-seam fast, but his 4-seamer isn't effective and gets hit hard fairly often.  That the Cubs have liked him so much makes me wonder whether they see something in how he throws that, such that they think they can improve him?  Whether that be pitch distribution, or sequencing, or whether they maybe believe a tweak in grip or dropping his arm slot might help? 

I think part of the improvement story this year is that he reduced usage of the 4-seam, and increased use of sinkers.  His stats show a groundball profile, which seems a great fit with our defense.  Can see a high K-rate, combined with groundball profile, would seem appealing for Cubs.   But yeah, hopefully they can kinda tweak up his 4-seam and get a little more out of it; and perhaps if that's more of an unexpected offspeed pitch that guys don't expect when they're thinking sinker/slider/curve, maybe he'll improve? 

Guessing Hottovy and Zombo are fired up to take a crack at helping him.   

2023 ...~$230M. 2024 ... ~$240M. 2025 ... ~$231M. ...

I will be the happiest person on earth to see Rickett's spend more, but I don't think it's reasonable to expect the Cubs to budget more than $235M on 2026 payroll. Prove me wrong, Tom, please!!!

That would give the Cubs $27M before the $235M "limit," and they won't spend all of that coming out of spring - expect them to keep at least $5M powder dry.

If all this holds, hard to see how they fit in any FA bat better than Eugenio Suarez.

....Hoerner has averaged ~4.4 WAR since becoming a big league regular at 2B 4 years ago. Transplanting that production to SS increases the WAR total, assuming defensive outcomes remain steady. Assume there's a mild fall off in defensive outcomes (Nico's arm certainly profiles better at 2B than SS), but account for the positional adjustment from 2B to SS, and you're probably looking at that 4WAR as a "reliable" baseline at SS given how consistent Nico's game is.

In this context, I think all of Dansby, Adames, and Bichette this year are good contact comps for Hoerner. That's how I'd position if I were his agent. Hoerner's total payout will be smaller than Bichette, who will get more years, but I'd be very surprised if Hoerner's AAV is significantly less than $25M, especially when you factor in his dependability and intangibles.

Not looking to beat a dead horse, just enjoying the exchange

Same, tico, enjoying exchange!  Fun to process, thanks!  So I'll beat some more!  . Heh heh, if this is too long, just look at #5. 

1.  Again, we're just on different views for the spending.  We hosted 5 playoff games.  They spent $240 two inflation years ago, the lux line has inflated, and last year if Bregman had said yes $231 would have been $261.  The $231 wasn't the budget, Hoyer just underspent the budget that he had.  Two years ago with Belli, they went over lux, and didn't keep the $5M powder dry. 

So yeah, I'm pretty confident that *if* Bregman, Bichette, or Bellinger take a deal, that bumping up to (or beyond) $240 is totally realistic.  I expect it, actually.  (I'm actually more worried about Hoyer.  that he'd rather go with a weaker team at a lower payroll than give away an extra year, or concede an option, or bump the AAV a little bit, or whatever, to get one of the big tickets...).

1b.  Bruce Levine is Cubs-enthusiastic and may know nothing.  But back when we were at ~$204, prior to Harvey and Cabrera, he said a source told him they might have >$50 or even $60 still, and expected to at least get into the $240's.  That may be baloney; but I'm guessing at least the $240's part is probably true, *IF* a deal seems right. 

2.  Heh heh, the only way to answer for sure will be *if* Hoyer goes and signs one of Bo/Breg/Belli or Tucker!  Doing so will confirm that he has the budget allowance.  (If he doesn't, we won't really know for sure if he once again underspent budget.)  So Jed, make it unambiguous: sign one of the four remaining big tickets that pushes you near or beyond $240, and prove that you have that budget space!  tico won't doubt it once you've proved it, make it happen Jed! 

3.  November Athletic guy projected Bichette at $26.5 AAV over 8 years, Breg at $28.5 over 6.  Undoubtedly real deals will differ variably.  But hypothetically $26.5 added to current $212 would still leave $5-6M powder below lux; Bregman's $28.5 would leave $3-4 powder.

4.  This is me arguing with Jed, not with you, tico!  But I think the $5M-powder-dry concept is dumb and obsolete?  The prospect price for deadline pickups has super-exaggerated.  With 12 teams in playoffs, not many sure sellers, and the supply-demand is terrible for buyers.  2nd, Cubs already have a million pitchers for depth, so the urgency to trade for Soroka/Kittredges should be low.  So, use your powder now, for the whole season, rather than saving it for two months.  Signing Suarez instead of Bichette now, to save powder for Soroka in August, that is foolish.  Given the specific situation we're in right now, way better to spend it right now on one of Bo/Breg/Belli/Tucker.  And finally, 3rd, who cares anyway if you do go over?  20% tax on overage.  If you spend near lux-1 now, and trade-deadline over by $2M, is the $0.4 tax a reason to choose Suarez over Bichette now, or to trade away Hoerner?  To avoid a $0.4M tax?  Good grief!  It makes zero financial or baseball-strategy sense!  (Powder Rant over!!!) 

5.  tico, sincere question.  Shouldn't Hoerner have a lower, not higher, WAR value at SS?  Given that defense and offense at SS is way better than at 2B?  His DWAR should be lower at SS, given the much higher level of defensive capacity by big-league SS's, both starters and subs.  Even replacement-level SS defenders are way better than replacement-level 2B's, just as it true for starters.  And wouldn't his offensive WAR also be much reduced at SS, given the much stronger hitting profile of big-league SS's?  (Average SS/2B OPS was .718/.689).  Maybe I don't understand the WAR calculation correctly: but pushing Hoerner to position where both hitting and fielding norms are much better, shouldn't that reduce his WAR?  Isn't his WAR so good because he plays a position where both hitting and defensive norms are lower, so at SS his WAR will drop? 

Per Statmuse, average OPS for 2B and SS were .689 and .718.  SS is stuffed with good hitters.  Relative to starters, his .739 was 9th among 2B's, but would have been 14th among SS's.  SS had seven guys above .800-OPS, 2B had only three. 

Craig is quite clearly hopped up on the dope.  No offense, my brother.

Dansby, Adames, Bichette all hit with power. Hoerner does not.

Maybe overlooking somebody but don’t see single-digit homer guys getting that kind of money. Examples???

A few teams will like Hoerner as a SS but unlikely to project him as an elite SS defender. Dansby hit free agency coming off hitting 52 homers in previous two seasons and established elite SS defense, not elite 2B defense.

Elite SS defense, coupled with power, is a rarified space.

Think Cubs can and should re-sign Hoerner when hits free agency. Batting average, baserunning, elite 2B defense. Clubhouse. He fits here.  Bad idea to trade him—as a pending FA—for whatever prospect(s) can get for a rental. 

Much rather have Tucker than Bichette or Bregman…..and leave current infield intact for several seasons.

My preference is Tucker > Bichette > Bregman > Bellinger.  You're saying you'd rather not, because Bo/Breg are imperfect and will get overpaid?

For me, it's Tucker >> Bichette >>>>>>>>>> Bregman or Bellinger.

I just don't get the interest in Bregman/Bellinger over the other two--is more financial flexibility half a decade from now really worth it?

MLBTradeRumors predicts Bichette will get 8 years, $208 million. They predict Bregman at 6/$160 million. If they sign for those contracts, Bichette will have 4 years, $104 million left when he's the same age that Bregman is right now. With Bichette, you're getting the back half of his prime now (instead of the start of his decline), and you're on the hook for fewer years/less money in the decline phase. You win twice by spending a little more.

This article from the Athletic is interesting.  It's saying that the reason some of the big money teams haven't signed the better Free Agents is that the luxury tax will double what they pay the guy.  A 40M deal to Tucker would cost the Dodgers 80M, for example. 

y Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon
Jan. 7, 2026 5:00 am CST

Some team is going to sign Kyle Tucker. Ditto for Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette and Cody Bellinger. But most of the teams pursuing those hitters are among the game’s biggest spenders. For those clubs, the cost of adding a premium free agent will be approximately double the player’s salary.

Consider Tucker, whose contract might carry an average annual value of $40 million (The Athletic’s Tim Britton projected him to receive a $38.3 million AAV in a 12-year deal).

Any team that exceeds the base luxury-tax threshold for three or more consecutive years pays a 50 percent penalty for every dollar it goes above. Any team that exceeds the base threshold by $60 million or more pays an additional 60 percent surcharge.

The Los Angeles Dodgers qualify on both counts, so their penalty for signing Tucker or any of the other remaining free agents would be 110 percent. At a $40 million AAV, Tucker would cost them $84 million. At a $35 million AAV, the number would be a mere $73.5 million.

Not that the Dodgers necessarily care – they paid a record $169.4 million in tax after winning their second straight World Series title.
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Dodgers to pay record $169 million luxury tax bill after back-to-back World Series wins
Dodgers to pay record $169 million luxury tax bill after back-to-back World Series wins
The Dodgers' 2025 tax bill exceeds the payrolls of 12 separate MLB franchises this season.

Their signing of free-agent closer Edwin Díaz, whose AAV after deferrals is $21.1 million, will cost them $44.3 million annually.

The Toronto Blue Jays, a team known to be pursuing Tucker, already are above the highest threshold. But as a two-time luxury-tax offender, their penalty rate would be 90 percent. A $40 million AAV for Tucker would cost them $76 million.

Three other teams – the New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees – are one major move away from the 110 percent bracket. The Phillies, within $4 million of the highest threshold, are closest, per Fangraphs. If they re-sign free-agent catcher J.T. Realmuto, they would pay 110 percent on most of his salary. If they added a top free agent on top of that, they would pay the full 110 percent. But after this season, they will gain considerable payroll flexibility.

The league and players essentially split luxury-tax proceeds. The tax obviously is only so much of a deterrent, an issue low-payroll clubs surely will want to address in collective bargaining if the sport continues without a salary cap. But the additional cost could be contributing to the delay in some of the top free agents signing.

For at least some of the game’s top spenders, every dollar counts.
Cubs in mix for Bregman and Bichette

Another reason for the logjam in free agency might be the reluctance of certain players to sign before others they are competing with in the market – a dynamic possibly in play with Tucker and Bellinger, Bregman and Bichette, Framber Valdez and Ranger Suárez.

Bregman, who turns 32 in March, is four years older than Bichette, but a number of teams view his leadership as a difference-maker. The Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs are among the teams talking to both players, according to people briefed on the conversations. The Blue Jays have been in touch with both, too, but now appear more focused on Tucker.

The Cubs’ interest in Bichette, first reported by Jon Heyman, stems from their desire to upgrade at third base – something the signing of Bregman also would accomplish.

Adding either player would create the potential for the Cubs to trade second baseman Nico Hoerner and move Matt Shaw from third to second. The Cubs also could keep Hoerner and make Shaw a superutility player, an alignment that would give them a better chance to win unless they dealt Hoerner for a quality starting pitcher.

Hoerner, 28, is set to earn $12 million in his final season before free agency. To this point, the Cubs have not fully explored his trade market. With so many infielders available – Bregman and Bichette in free agency, St. Louis’ Brendan Donovan and Arizona’s Ketel Marte in trade – teams are weighing multiple options. And the Cubs need not move Hoerner until they have greater clarity at third.

A better idea for the Cubs might be to extend Hoerner, who is coming off his best season and beloved in their clubhouse. The team has only $39 million committed for 2027 – $28 million for shortstop Dansby Swanson, $6 million for reliever Phil Maton, the rest in potential buyouts.

In addition to Bregman and Bichette, the Cubs continue to pursue a starting pitcher in both free agency and trade.
The delay on Donovan

Why have the Cardinals not yet traded Donovan, the player who can bring them the most in a deal? It comes down to a difference in perceived value. The Cardinals view Donovan as a star player while not all clubs see him that way, according to people briefed on the conversations.

Donovan, who turns 29 this month, offers many appealing qualities, from his swing decisions to his bat-to-ball skills, his defensive versatility to his makeup. But his career-best fWAR, achieved in 2024, was 3.2. Hoerner was at 4.8 last season, Marte at 4.6 – the latter in only 126 games.

Donovan also is under club control for only two more seasons, the second of which is threatened by a lockout. The Kansas City Royals remain among the teams interested, but if the Cardinals prefer premium young bats, the Seattle Mariners are perhaps the best fit.
Mets working trade market

The Mets hold some interest in the top remaining free-agent starters, including Valdez, but their focus is on first exploring trades, league sources said.

As of early Tuesday, no deal appeared imminent and people familiar with the discussions cautioned that things are slow.

The Mets are interested in both rentals and pitchers with club control. Thus, Tarik Skubal (Detroit Tigers), Freddy Peralta (Milwaukee Brewers), MacKenzie Gore (Washington Nationals), Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins), Kris Bubic (Kansas City Royals) and Brady Singer (Cincinnati Reds) are all among the conceivable options.

The Mets boast one of the top farm systems. They are also open to dealing infielders Mark Vientos, Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuña.
Orioles would punt another pick

Back in November, Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias signaled a shift in direction, saying he was “fully prepared” to forfeit draft pick(s) to sign free agents who rejected qualifying offers.

Just over a month later, the Orioles sacrificed a pick, but not for a free agent. They included one in their trade for right-hander Shane Baz – their Competitive Balance Round A selection, which is likely to be No. 34 overall.

The Orioles, though, are willing to lose another pick, knowing that will be part of the calculus if they sign Valdez or Suárez. As a revenue-sharing recipient, they would lose only their third-highest selection. They did not forfeit a pick for signing first baseman Pete Alonso, who was ineligible for a second qualifying offer after receiving one from the Mets last offseason.

The Orioles hold the seventh overall selection. Their second choice is likely to be No. 47. The pick they would lose is likely to be No. 85 – not high enough to be a deal-breaker for a potential top-of-the-rotation starter.
Justin Wilson mulling retirement

Veteran pitcher Justin Wilson, perhaps the best lefty reliever available in free agency, is considering retirement, league sources said. It is unlikely Wilson, 38, pitches in 2026 unless it is on a fair deal with a legitimate World Series contender. One major accomplishment that has eluded Wilson — who starred in the College World Series for winner Fresno State in 2008 — is a World Series ring.

Wilson produced a 3.38 ERA over 61 appearances last season with the Boston Red Sox, which lost to the New York Yankees in the Wild Card Series. Over his 13-year career in the major leagues, Wilson owns a 3.59 ERA/3.51 FIP.
Justin Wilson is likely to call it a career unless a compelling offer materializes from a contender.James A. Pittman-Imagn Images

With or without Wilson, Danny Coulombe is right at the top of the list of available lefty relievers, too. Coulombe, 36, is engaged with five teams, league sources said.
White Sox interested in Canning

In the market for another pitcher on a one-year deal, the Chicago White Sox expressed interest in late December in right-hander Griffin Canning, league sources said.

So far this offseason, Chicago has added lefties Sean Newcomb (one-year deal) and Anthony Kay (two-year contract). The rest of the rotation is set to feature Shane Smith, Davis Martin and Sean Burke. Newcomb can either start or appear out of the bullpen.

Canning is generating interest from other teams as well. A ruptured left Achilles tendon last June derailed Canning’s solid season with the New York Mets. Canning, 29, had a 3.77 ERA/4.04 FIP in 76 1/3 innings (16 starts).
With Allen, Brewers ahead of the curve

The Milwaukee Brewers got off to a head start on the trend of college coaches jumping to the major leagues when they hired Spencer Allen as a field coordinator ahead of the 2022 season. Allen, who spent the prior six seasons as Northwestern’s head coach, then became the Brewers’ director of player development, a position he held the last two years.

In a move that received high marks around the industry on Monday, Milwaukee announced Allen’s promotion to the major-league staff as first base coach.


By Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon