Bleacher Bums Forum

Not Tico, but I’ll try. 
...The reason he’s be more valuable at SS is the positional adjustment.  SS is worth 7.5 runs and second base is 2.5 runs.  That is 0.5 WAR from just the positional difference.  That is just tough to overcome....

Ah, got it!  That explains. 

....A pretty decent SS with 30-40 SB and slightly above average offense is going to get pretty close to Dansby money.  There is no way the Cubs can commit to paying $50 million to 2 defensive players with average offense, unless they are going to blow past and stay well above the CBT.

I'm not sure I agree.  Exceptional defense is the Cubs' identity.  Obviously $25 may exceed Hoerner's market, that's kinda high for a 7HR guy.  But there are various ways to allocate budget.  And if 4+ WAR is the actual all-encompassing value, perhaps market won't mind if that's despite no power.  Beats me.  But yeah, you can have some slightly-plus offense defensive studs blended in with some other better hitters.  if he's worth what he's worth, that's independent of Dansby. 

The ability to give raises to extend internal FA's depends on production from the farm and young players.  If Cabrera is good, next year you could let Shota go, and his $22 could cover raises for both Nico and Cabrera.  If Wiggins is dynamic, next year you could let Taillon go, and his $19 could cover some other cost increases.  If Moises looks good and somehow adds some HR power, that could make it easier to let Happ or Seiya go, and free up $20 for other applications.  Same for Alcantara, Long, and Conrad; maybe Conrad looks like a good slugger who could free up Happ's $20 soon?  Or suppose we sign Tucker but Moises emerges, next year Tucker + Moises at combined cost would be comparable to 2025 Tucker + Seiya. I ramble, but there are varying ways to fill your roster.  If we have capable young players replacing vet salaries, that's the way to go. 

I'm also convinced that winning has some revenue benefits, and that many teams who win raise their payroll some to sustain success.  So I do think bumping over the CBT is well plausible.  And who knows what the CBT levels or structure will be under the new CBA: perhaps in future years there are zero draft-pick penalties; or perhaps lux1 will jump to $270 or something. 

In the 2019 non-playoff team, Theo had $98M allocated to his veteran rotation (Lester, Hamels, Darvish, Chatwood, Quintana, Hendricks).  He poured his dollars into experienced vet starters because his farm produced nothing.  Maybe a crummy analogy, since that team didn't make the playoffs.  But a boss can allocate his money in various ways, and I don't think extending Hoerner with an appropriate raise is precluded because it's too much allocation for defense.  And second point, no team with budget limits is going to sustain long-term unless farm is able to produce capable low-salary guys to offset vet salaries, to offset raises for good veterans extending, as would be Hoerner's situation; or to offset raises for good players rising through their arb years. 

"After the break, however, the team’s offense fell off markedly. ... The Cubs ranked only 20th in runs per game."

Not really buying into recent speculation that Cubs interested in Bellinger.

Recall that a year ago expectation was that Bellinger would be helped playing in Yankee Stadium dimensions.

As it turned out:

(home)  .302-365-544

(road)   .241-301-414

And this from The Athletic:

The New York Yankees’ latest multi-year contract offer to free-agent outfielder Cody Bellinger featured an average annual value of more than $30 million a year as Bellinger’s camp continued to push for seven years, multiple sources briefed on the ongoing talks told The Athletic on Thursday.

There seems to be some doubt about whether Bichette would be any more than fair defensively at 3B.  If we acquire him, Shaw could start periodically while also potentially serving as a late inning defensive replacement.

I agree that the Cubs seem to be happy with the prospect of Shaw playing third base for them

Except

I also believe that they would like to add a power bat, and third base might be the only practical way to do that.  First base is taken.  Left field is taken.  And unless they want to make Suzuki their full time pinch hitter, so is right field.  That doesn't really allow a significant increase in power other than the third base position.
I also think that they are happy with Hoerner at second base, and are probably willing to extend him in a contract that they feel is reasonable.  But they also have the option of trading Hoerner, and moving Shaw to second base, if they feel that they HAVE to add power somewhere.  Which option they take (or any other options that we have not mentioned) probably depends upon a number of factors that are beyond their control, and so probably even the Cubs management are not sure at this point which direction they should take.
Personally, I would be quite happy for them to play this season with substantially their current roster, and find out more completely, how good Shaw and Ballesteros are, and what price it will take to extend Hoerner, or what he will bring in trade at the deadline, if that is appropriate.  At the very least, they will go into the 2027 season knowing what the playing field will be under the new labor agreement, having a better idea how Wiggens will progress, and more information to base a forecast of the value of Hodge, Brown, and Conrad.  And go into the off season with a free budget of about 200 million dollars to work with.