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Author Topic: Around Baseball 2/16/11 - 5/9/13  (Read 147798 times)

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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #5295 on: December 14, 2012, 04:19:14 pm »
Gose has a pretty high ceiling - gold glove caliber CF's who can hit for some power are worth quite a bit. As homer rates decline around the game, true up-the-middle defenders are worth more and more. Guys who can provide some offensive value from those positions are increasingly rare. I don't think he's a prospect you can thumb your nose at.
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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #5296 on: December 14, 2012, 04:27:57 pm »
But as the only real piece for the NL Cy Young winner?  He's not that kind of prospect.  He's in the same category with guys like Brett Jackson...if it all comes together, he can be really good.  But so far, it doesn't look like it's all going to come together.

The Cubs don't really have an equivalent, true.  But that's pretty lousy return, and you'd hope they could find something better than that.  Of course, in the end I doubt that will be the deal.  Gose and Arencibia would be decent as the 2nd and 3rd pieces of a trade that is headlined by someone really good.
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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #5297 on: December 14, 2012, 04:48:24 pm »
Dickey isn't your typical Cy winner. He's an upward trending hard knuckleballer in his late 30's. I don't think there's a single historical comp. The Mets won't give him half of Sanchez's deal.
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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #5298 on: December 15, 2012, 12:45:23 am »
Depending on what the other pieces are, this makes a lot more sense.

Quote
Jeff Passan ‏@JeffPassan
Source: Mets and Blue Jays on the verge of deal that would send R.A. Dickey to Toronto, Travis D'Arnaud to Mets. Teams looking at medicals.
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Around Baseball
« Reply #5299 on: December 15, 2012, 06:53:45 am »
That trade would be stunning...
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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #5300 on: December 15, 2012, 08:20:08 am »
Cubs lose out on Mike Adams...2 years, $12 million with the Phillies.
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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #5301 on: December 15, 2012, 08:53:44 am »
Adams is pretty impressive.

A career ERA+ of 177, and an ERA+ of 140 or better each of the last 7 seasons; 5 straight years with an ERA+ of 210 or better; two years at better than 300, and once at 523.  The only seasons he has had with an ERA+ below 140 were his rookie year when he had and ERA+ of 129 and two years later when he only pitched two innings and was injured.

Even with the small sample size a reliever gets (only a total of 364 innings in his 8 years in the majors), that is quite impressive.
« Last Edit: December 15, 2012, 09:06:21 am by Jes Beard »
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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #5302 on: December 15, 2012, 09:21:28 am »
On Dickey, from the NY Post:

the Mets’ most recent contract offer — a two-year extension worth $20 million, according to sources — and wouldn’t be surprised if he were traded. Dickey’s asking price from the Mets was $26 million over two years, beginning in 2014.   Dickey... went 20-6 with a 2.73 ERA last season,
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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #5303 on: December 15, 2012, 09:23:24 am »
You would think having a reliever like Adam's not blowing up would be worth more than 1 and a half war a year on average, but I guess not.  He is an 8 year vet, as dominating as Jes just so eloquently stated, yet only has a 12.1 career war.  That does include a 2 inning season, but geez.  4 Mike Adams would create a shut down bull pen and that's only worth 5-7 wins a year on average?  I could be wrong but just seems like a lot more games than are lost by the bull pen.  Though, on the high end, I guess 7 wins are quite a few and you do regain some of those leads crappy relievers lose.
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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #5304 on: December 15, 2012, 09:32:41 am »
I've been wondering about the Met's thought process myself.  2 years at 26 million seems like a bargain for Dickey unless they're not planning on competing in the next few years.  Knuckleballers age well, and the apprehension about his age will still probably allow them to keep him on a team friendly deal if he is still dominating when those 2 years are up.  If he regresses at all or even drops back to league average, it's still not a terrible overpay, and he has added value in the guy pitching after him might be a tad tougher to hit after seeing those knuckle balls all game.  He also eats a ton of innings and saves the bullpen.

I could understand if he was a one year fluke, but he has been a really good pitcher for 3 years.
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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #5305 on: December 15, 2012, 12:55:15 pm »
Unless I was absolutely sure I could get more than 2 quality years out of him, there's no way I would give up a prospect of d'Arnaud's stature...
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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #5306 on: December 15, 2012, 01:10:50 pm »
Quote from: Dave23 on December 15, 2012, 12:55:15 pm
Unless I was absolutely sure I could get more than 2 quality years out of him, there's no way I would give up a prospect of d'Arnaud's stature...

No one can be "absolutely sure" they are going to get any quality years from d'Arnaud.

I understand the reluctance in trading high ceiling prospects, and that generally makes sense, but a great deal depends on the team's window of opportunity.

I am not familiar enough with Toronto's roster to offer an opinion as to how long their window of opportunity might remain open, but I would guess that part of the reason Toronto sees a window right now is that Boston and NY both seem to be stepping back a bit in 2013, and that is likely not something Toronto expects to continue indefinitely.
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Around Baseball
« Reply #5307 on: December 15, 2012, 10:23:33 pm »
I was talking about 2 quality years out of Dickey...not d'Arnaud...
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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #5308 on: December 16, 2012, 07:14:37 am »
Quote from: Dave23 on December 15, 2012, 10:23:33 pm
I was talking about 2 quality years out of Dickey...not d'Arnaud...

I understood that, and it was what prompted my response, pointing out that a team has a very high probability of getting two very good years out of Dickey in 2013 and 2014, while d'Arnaud is much more of a crap shoot, both as to how good he will be, and when he will reach that peak.

For a team which sees itself as having a window of opportunity right now, but one which may have much more cloudy prospects 3 or 4 years from now, the trade could make a great deal of sense.
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Re: Around Baseball
« Reply #5309 on: December 16, 2012, 09:58:45 am »
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