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Author Topic: Hot Stove  (Read 102205 times)

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2385 on: December 03, 2025, 11:10:52 pm »
Quote from: brjones on December 03, 2025, 10:48:02 pm
That seems like a big opportunity for a team with a lot of money (and only one guaranteed contract on the books after 2026) to take advantage. It could be a game-changing offseason for that team.

Unfortunately...

I have no insight into what Cubs actually will do in free agency.

But, Sharma said that Cubs were in on Cease until bidding got to $200 M.  Exact Sharma wording is: “According to a league source, the Cubs were in on Dylan Cease but bowed out as the bidding reached the $200 million mark.”

If true, that does not sound like a team unwilling to spend for somebody really good. I don’t know—maybe Cease was a one off and Cubs don’t value anybody else.

Lots of guys will be signing soon, with the winter meetings coming next week and probably trades too. No clue what Cubs will do.

Think I’ll just wait and see how the off-season plays out. To those of you who already know, congratulations.
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2386 on: December 04, 2025, 08:26:23 am »
Quote from: brjones on December 03, 2025, 10:48:02 pm
That seems like a big opportunity for a team with a lot of money (and only one guaranteed contract on the books after 2026) to take advantage. It could be a game-changing offseason for that team.

Unfortunately...

Yeah, Darvish, Bellinger, Cubs have tended to wait for market to be soft enough so that a guy doesn't get an offer higher than what management sees as decent value.  Bregman last spring was similar deal.  Obviously the wonderful Neris deal, and Mancini was kinda like that too. 

1st, that means Hoyer isn't likely to be signing any starting-caliber guys next week.  If they don't get offers better than Cubs, they'll wait variably longer in hopes that bids rise later.  So I don't envision any big-scale moves next week.  for cubs, that is.  exception maybe if a player tells agent his wife wants this decided, so she knows before Christmas, has time for a cruise, and has time to look at luxury homes with husband before spring training pulls him away.

2nd, as you say, *if* bidding is soft, maybe that will provide some opportunity.  we used to talk mongo dollars for tucker.  last week I saw article where 10 of 16 front-office guys polled thought Tucker would come in below $400.  Maybe Tucker or Imai or Bregman or King will end up settling for a price Hoyer will swallow? 
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2387 on: December 04, 2025, 05:11:29 pm »
Mooney and Sharma say Cubs again interested in Bregman:

“Cubs have shown renewed interest in the All-Star third baseman, according to sources briefed on the club’s offseason planning….Whatever happens next — the Winter Meetings start Dec. 7 — it’s clear that the Cubs aren’t waiting around until spring training or focusing solely on the pitching side of the equation.”
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2388 on: December 04, 2025, 05:44:58 pm »
Quote from: craig on December 04, 2025, 08:26:23 am
Yeah, Darvish, Bellinger, Cubs have tended to wait for market to be soft enough so that a guy doesn't get an offer higher than what management sees as decent value.  Bregman last spring was similar deal.  Obviously the wonderful Neris deal, and Mancini was kinda like that too. 

1st, that means Hoyer isn't likely to be signing any starting-caliber guys next week.  If they don't get offers better than Cubs, they'll wait variably longer in hopes that bids rise later.  So I don't envision any big-scale moves next week.  for cubs, that is.  exception maybe if a player tells agent his wife wants this decided, so she knows before Christmas, has time for a cruise, and has time to look at luxury homes with husband before spring training pulls him away.

2nd, as you say, *if* bidding is soft, maybe that will provide some opportunity.  we used to talk mongo dollars for tucker.  last week I saw article where 10 of 16 front-office guys polled thought Tucker would come in below $400.  Maybe Tucker or Imai or Bregman or King will end up settling for a price Hoyer will swallow? 


Why would any of those guys not get the contracts they're projected to get? Wishing won't make it happen.

There's lots of chatter about the Cubs and King, and he's the sort of second-tier guy you could see Hoyer making his big stretch of the offseason. But the problem is if the Cubs are really interested in Imai (I'm hugekly skeptical, but just for the sake of argument say they are), King will likely be gone long before Imai signs. He's not even doing visits until after the meetings and top Japanese guys usually sign late. King will have multiple 3-4 year offers and given that he knows for the truly big teams he's likely a second choice, he'll probably grab one of those offers pretty early.
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2389 on: December 04, 2025, 06:30:18 pm »

Mark Feinsand
@Feinsand
·
4m
Full Red Sox-Pirates trade, per source:

Boston gets RHP Johan Oviedo, LHP Tyler Samaniego and C Adonys Guzman

Pittsburgh gets OF Jhostynxon Garcia (BOS No. 3 prospect per
@MLBPipeline
) and RHP Jesus Travieso
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2390 on: December 04, 2025, 06:58:39 pm »
Cubs trade Nico Zeglin, not in their top-30 but a guy who had a great 2024 in the low minors, to Houston for international pool space. Also, MLB declares 13 Cuban players free agents.
« Last Edit: December 04, 2025, 07:48:48 pm by Deeg »
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2391 on: December 04, 2025, 08:06:02 pm »
...read the first three words of that and had tightness in my chest...
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2392 on: December 04, 2025, 10:05:15 pm »
Quote from: Reb on December 04, 2025, 05:11:29 pm
Mooney and Sharma say Cubs again interested in Bregman:


I was interested in Cheryl Ladd at one time. That went as far as this will.
« Last Edit: December 04, 2025, 10:06:50 pm by Chris27 »
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2393 on: December 04, 2025, 10:06:48 pm »
Quote from: Deeg on December 04, 2025, 05:44:58 pm
Why would any of those guys not get the contracts they're projected to get? Wishing won't make it happen.

There's lots of chatter about the Cubs and King, and he's the sort of second-tier guy you could see Hoyer making his big stretch of the offseason. But the problem is if the Cubs are really interested in Imai (I'm hugekly skeptical, but just for the sake of argument say they are), King will likely be gone long before Imai signs. He's not even doing visits until after the meetings and top Japanese guys usually sign late. King will have multiple 3-4 year offers and given that he knows for the truly big teams he's likely a second choice, he'll probably grab one of those offers pretty early.

Yeah, true.  Saving only to have the guy you saved for choose elsewhere, that's a bust.  Kinda how Bregman went last winter.  Your scenario about waiting until King is gone, only to miss on Imai, totally plausible.  Probable?  If Buster's thing is true, though, maybe King won't get hot action at start, either, and won't sign for a while either?  Or, maybe his agent will figure let's wait till Imai decides, then losers on Imai might bid King up further?  Makes sense for him to wait for bigger offer, that's what Boras usually does, and waiting never shrinks his offers I don't think. 

But yeah,sometimes the market isn't strong.  Darvish came for less than Theo or anybody had anticipated.  It happens sometime.  Athletic, ESPN, traderumors predicted Tucker for like $460, $418, and $400.  And last spring I think you were predicting in the $450-600 range, maybe?  Well beyond $400?  But now, in Athletics front office poll, 10 or 16 front-office guys didn't think he'd even clear $400.  Who knows? 

But you're probably right, and Buster will probably be wrong if he's hearing soft bidding.   
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2394 on: December 04, 2025, 10:08:59 pm »
Yeah, Cubs are "interested" in lots of guys.  Are they willing to pay top price for guys pricier than Taillon or Boyd?  "Interested" is way different from serious about committing a winning bid.  Especially for guys good enough to command long deal, if you're unwilling to go long. 
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2395 on: December 04, 2025, 10:32:28 pm »
So, deeg, just to play Koolaid on Imai.  What if his market isn't overwhelming? 
1.  Dodgers:  Mutually interest not rumored.
2.  BlueJays:  Will they sign all five of Cease, Bichette, Tucker, Ponce, and Imai besides?  With Cease and Ponce already in hand, with Glasnow and the rookie star, and with Berrios coming back, guessing Imai will not be their target? 
3.  Yankees:  Talk about not spending a lot, payroll pinching.  With Rodon expected back early, and Cole in due time, and Schmidt, is pitching where they want to spend?  Lineup may seem a higher priority.
4.  Mets:  Williams, big jump to re-sign Diaz, big jump to re-sign Alonso, not necessarily the greatest experience with their Japanese starters past, maybe spend serious on Bellinger for CF, maybe they'll just go for Framber instead?
5.  Phillies:  Also have a big payroll, and may not be looking to expand that a lot?  There's Schwarber to re-sign, he'll cost a bunch.  Perhaps they'd rather resign Suarez?  They don't have a history with Japanese stars, I don't think? 

I have no idea, maybe Mets or Yankees will target Imai and blow Hoyer away.  But thinking there might be a landscape where LA, New York, and Toronto teams don't end up prioritizing him.  And *IF* they hypothetically don't, maybe Cubs will, and maybe Cubs seem like a good combination of fit between having supported Japanese players well, and having a good competitive window? 

Also possible that while he can drag it out to Jan 2, perhaps he'll move a little quicker and kinda have his team decided by Christmas? 
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2396 on: December 04, 2025, 10:45:46 pm »
Quote from: craig on December 04, 2025, 10:32:28 pm
So, deeg, just to play Koolaid on Imai.  What if his market isn't overwhelming? 
1.  Dodgers:  Mutually interest not rumored.
2.  BlueJays:  Will they sign all five of Cease, Bichette, Tucker, Ponce, and Imai besides?  With Cease and Ponce already in hand, with Glasnow and the rookie star, and with Berrios coming back, guessing Imai will not be their target? 
3.  Yankees:  Talk about not spending a lot, payroll pinching.  With Rodon expected back early, and Cole in due time, and Schmidt, is pitching where they want to spend?  Lineup may seem a higher priority.
4.  Mets:  Williams, big jump to re-sign Diaz, big jump to re-sign Alonso, not necessarily the greatest experience with their Japanese starters past, maybe spend serious on Bellinger for CF, maybe they'll just go for Framber instead?
5.  Phillies:  Also have a big payroll, and may not be looking to expand that a lot?  There's Schwarber to re-sign, he'll cost a bunch.  Perhaps they'd rather resign Suarez?  They don't have a history with Japanese stars, I don't think? 

I have no idea, maybe Mets or Yankees will target Imai and blow Hoyer away.  But thinking there might be a landscape where LA, New York, and Toronto teams don't end up prioritizing him.  And *IF* they hypothetically don't, maybe Cubs will, and maybe Cubs seem like a good combination of fit between having supported Japanese players well, and having a good competitive window? 

Also possible that while he can drag it out to Jan 2, perhaps he'll move a little quicker and kinda have his team decided by Christmas? 

Hypothetically? Sure, anything's possible. But an elite FA SP going into his age 27-28 season? Those don't come along very often. Based on scouting and numbers, Imai probably comes in-between Yamamoto and Senga as a prospect, and Senga got 5/$75 as a 30 year-old.

Imai can say what he wants - if the Dodgers want him, he ends up there. The Giants are the logical "beat the Dodgers" option, they wanted Yamamoto and Sasaki bad, and despite their trying to tamp expectations down this time, they have money. The Tigers want him, and at this point are a more credible FA suitor than the Cubs. And in the end you have to figure the Mets and Yankees will both be in, with maybe somebody surprising - like Seattle (an attractive destination for Japanese players), who could sign him and trade for other help or prospects from their wealth of young SP.

Imai is an attractive, elite talent. He'll get something like 7/$160 or more, you can pretty much bank on it. 6 years at the minimum.
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2397 on: December 05, 2025, 12:30:19 am »
Quote from: craig on December 04, 2025, 10:08:59 pm
Are they willing to pay top price for guys pricier than Taillon or Boyd?

No.
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2398 on: December 05, 2025, 08:05:51 am »
Yeah, could easily/probably be like the shortstops year.  Then, Cubs "interested" in Turner, Bogaerts, Correa.  Settle for Dansby. 

Now "interested" in Cease, Imai, King, Framber, Ranger, King.  Settle for Giolito. 
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2399 on: December 05, 2025, 09:12:05 am »
I think the SP equivalent of Dansby would be King.
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