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Author Topic: Hot Stove  (Read 102234 times)

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2400 on: December 05, 2025, 09:20:50 am »
Quote from: craig on December 05, 2025, 08:05:51 am
Yeah, could easily/probably be like the shortstops year.  Then, Cubs "interested" in Turner, Bogaerts, Correa.  Settle for Dansby. 

Now "interested" in Cease, Imai, King, Framber, Ranger, King.  Settle for Giolito. 

Using your example, if the Cubs "settle" for someone like they did with Dansby, with similar results, I won't complain. Of those SS, Dansby has the highest WAR of the group during the time he's been a Cub, and much higher than all but Turner,
« Last Edit: December 05, 2025, 09:24:16 am by Ron »
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2401 on: December 05, 2025, 09:52:48 am »
Mooney/Sharma

They think the budget is closer to CBT, maybe around 2024 or a little higher.  The 2025 budget was lower.
They Cubs are "in" on pitchting, but all their being "in" on has produced is Maton and a participation trophy for Cease.  They couldn't say for certain that the Cubs being "in" on pitching will produce anything more. 
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2402 on: December 05, 2025, 10:33:03 am »
Quote from: Deeg on December 05, 2025, 09:12:05 am
I think the SP equivalent of Dansby would be King.

Yes.  Still, there are 5 times as many starting pitchers in the game, and almost EVERY team has opportunity to upgrade relative to worst starter.  So settling for the 4th best SS might almost be like settling for the 20th best starting pitcher!  :)

Ron is certainly right, Dansby has given best WAR-value thus far of those SS's.  It's not impossible that King might outproduce the higher-priced guys?  Possible likewise that some cat like Giolito might magically stay healthy, lock in, and perhaps end up being just as good as the other guys only at much lower price, who knows. 
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2403 on: December 05, 2025, 10:42:10 am »
There is hubris involved if management thinks they can consistently provide benefit to cheaper players that will allow them to perform like stars.  It may work some of the time, but it's difficult to be competitive if you don't spend big when the opportunity (and need) is there.
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2404 on: December 05, 2025, 11:05:37 am »
Turner: 14.7 fWAR
Swanson: 12.3 fWAR


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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2405 on: December 05, 2025, 11:05:49 am »
article
The Cubs have $50 million to $60 million more to add to their 2026 payroll, @MLBBruceLevine's sources told him. "There's that flexibility in there," he says.
X (formerly Twitter) · x.com


Levine says, "there is, according to my sources, upwards of $50-60 million dollars yet to be spent on this year's payroll..."

We shall see.  Having it doesn't mean they'll spend it, as we saw last winter and the Tanaka year before Lester.  Plus $50 can go pretty fast.  Enough for one good starter, but not really enough for two quality starters plus bullpen plus a utility player. 
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2406 on: December 05, 2025, 11:13:45 am »
Quote from: CUBluejays on December 05, 2025, 11:05:37 am
Turner: 14.7 fWAR
Swanson: 12.3 fWAR

Swanson:  13.6 bWAR
Turner 11.9 bWAR

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2407 on: December 05, 2025, 11:15:56 am »
Quote from: CUBluejays on December 05, 2025, 11:05:37 am
Turner: 14.7 fWAR
Swanson: 12.3 fWAR

OK, fair enough. I was using the WAR on Baseball Reference. But the basic point would remain, that Swanson's signing was not the lesser of the four options. Instead, even using fWAR, it was more valuable than if the Cubs had signed Correa or Bogaerts (and not that far behind Turner).
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2408 on: December 05, 2025, 03:23:45 pm »
Quote from: Chris27 on December 04, 2025, 10:05:15 pm

I was interested in Cheryl Ladd at one time. That went as far as this will.

I used to think that I would eventually end up with Raquel Welch.  Who knows?  Now that she has died, that might have actually improved my chances.
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2409 on: December 05, 2025, 07:18:11 pm »
Having money to spend and actually spending it are not the same.
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2410 on: December 06, 2025, 11:46:25 am »
Bob Nightengale reported on Twitter that the Cubs were close to signing Zac Gallen, but it was immediately debunked by Passan. Nightengale has updated his post to say that the Cubs are hopeful that they can sign Gallen.

He said the Cubs were going to pay him $22 million for multiple years before he took back his post.
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2411 on: December 06, 2025, 02:02:27 pm »
Quote from: brjones on December 06, 2025, 11:46:25 am
…Nightengale has updated his post to say that the Cubs are hopeful that they can sign Gallen...


Mooney has a piece up at Athletic with the more appropriate usage that Cubs are “targeting” Gallen, to wit, “In their wide-ranging search for pitching, the Chicago Cubs are targeting Zac Gallen as an option, according to team and league sources briefed on the negotiations.”

Interesting.

Guessing that Gallen will want an opt-out—probably after year one, as Gallen cost himself a lot of money because of his poor walk-year performance. Guessing maybe Cubs not keen on a year one opt-out.

Maybe won’t happen. If it does, kind of a high ceiling, low floor risk.
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2412 on: December 06, 2025, 03:30:32 pm »
The Mariners have a history of getting a lot out of relievers, but it seems like they could've found a better deal for Harry Ford.

Robert Murray @ByRobertMurray
The Seattle Mariners are acquiring reliever Jose Ferrer from the Washington Nationals for catcher Harry Ford, according to sources familiar with the deal.
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2413 on: December 06, 2025, 03:59:17 pm »
Quote from: brjones on December 06, 2025, 03:30:32 pm
The Mariners have a history of getting a lot out of relievers, but it seems like they could've found a better deal for Harry Ford.


Great deal for the Nats—getting a very promising young catcher—but Mariners getting a gem in Ferrer.

Ferrer in 2025 was 94th percentile in velocity (97.7 avg), 99th percentile in ground ball rate, and 95th percentile in BB%. With a good infield defense behind him, he’s a shutdown-type reliever.

Had a .408 BABIP against right-handed hitters, which tells a lot about left side of Nats infield defense in 2025.
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2414 on: December 06, 2025, 10:43:31 pm »
Quote from: brjones on December 06, 2025, 11:46:25 am
Bob Nightengale .... said the Cubs were going to pay him $22 million for multiple years before he took back his post.

That's a little higher than the predictions.  $80/4, $76/4, $45/2, and $42/2 are the four I'm seeing (traderumors, ESPN, BA, Athletic...)

Obviously an offer above projections might help explain a guy signing early, or going shorter by a year. 
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