Author Topic: Hot Stove  (Read 102182 times)

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2745 on: December 23, 2025, 08:54:57 pm »
...So we have enough spare change for other teams' reject relievers?   What are we even doing here???

What are we saving it for?  Wait and see, I think.....


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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2746 on: December 23, 2025, 09:01:10 pm »
What are we saving it for? 

Mooney uses the word "and", not "or", in between "starting pitcher" and "an established hitter".  That's what I want to see.  But I think logically, that also best explains the extreme scrimpo mode thus far.  If looking for only one or the other, you'd not need to be so scrimpy. 

"By avoiding a huge commitment to a reliever thus far this offseason — the Cubs have signed Webb, Phil Maton, Hoby Milner and Caleb Thielbar for $24.25 million combined — the club is presumably leaving more room in the baseball budget to potentially acquire an accomplished starting pitcher and an established hitter."

Webb is the sort of low-cost, low-risk bullpen signing the Cubs have found success with in recent years.
The Athletic · nytimes.com


Heh heh, while over-analyzing some speculative media guy's rushed-article wording, which doesn't prove anything obviously, I also note the "accomplished" and "established" phrasing.  Which probably doesn't really apply to either Imai or Okamoto. 

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2747 on: December 23, 2025, 10:31:12 pm »
Just a reminder that Shamra - while not to the extent of a Brett or NSB Trueblood - is basically a party line guy. Said with Kap today that the Cubs would be interested in Imai if the bidding isn't "crazy - like $150 million". No one not carrying water for the club would call $150M for a 27 year-old ace out of Japan crazy for any large-market franchise.

This is a big part of the problem. Ricketts and Hoyer have peddled the narrative that the market is crazy and the Cubs are justified not paying market value for anybody. And they've been so relentless that for too many people it's just become an accepted reality.

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2748 on: December 24, 2025, 08:33:29 am »
The Marlins or Pirates would heartily approve.

Heck the Pirates have even signed Ryan O'Hearn and Gregory Soto, traded for Brandon Lowe and made an actual genuine attempt to sign Kyle Schwarber, which while altogether is nothing special is more than what the Cubs have done so far this offseason. 

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2749 on: December 24, 2025, 09:42:42 am »
Just a reminder that Shamra - while not to the extent of a Brett or NSB Trueblood - is basically a party line guy. Said with Kap today that the Cubs would be interested in Imai if the bidding isn't "crazy - like $150 million". No one not carrying water for the club would call $150M for a 27 year-old ace out of Japan crazy for any large-market franchise.

This is a big part of the problem. Ricketts and Hoyer have peddled the narrative that the market is crazy and the Cubs are justified not paying market value for anybody. And they've been so relentless that for too many people it's just become an accepted reality.

Mooney and Sharma were on their podcast and they were discussing Imai.  The current thinking is that the Cubs don't view him as an ace and that might be the view around the league as well.  I have seen him mentioned as more of middle rotation type pitcher.  They said if the bidding is above $150 million that they don't expect the Cubs to be in on him. They also added that  $200 million deals in general is just something the Cubs won't do.  It only takes 1 team to buy that Imai is going to be a stud and price the Cubs out. 


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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2750 on: December 24, 2025, 01:31:51 pm »
Fairbanks to Miami for more dollars than club option declined by Rays that led to his release.

Apparently, Cubs not too interested. Ditto Keller.

Cubs have a strategy for the 2026 bullpen….and at this point I have no idea what it is.

Clearly, bullpen spending not a priority. Nothing new about that.

Either Cubs (1) basically done with bullpen or (2) going to trade for some kind of pre-arb or 1st year arb, modest cost back-end quality bullpen piece once SP and perhaps significant-bat-addition settled. If can get those pieces via free agency, Cubs will still have trade capital for a reliever. There are some very good low cost relievers out there that will require significant trade price.

Still almost two months before spring training to add bullpen. Would like to think another substantial bullpen guy on the way but dunno.

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2751 on: December 24, 2025, 02:18:09 pm »
We won't really be able to seriously evaluate the Cubs' winter season until the dust settles. But gotta say, it does seem like Hoyer's very cautious approach is not looking all that encouraging at the moment. They surely have a plan, but as craig keeps asking, what are they saving the money for? Maybe we will be surprised by a major trade or a Bregman signing or something. Hope so.
« Last Edit: December 24, 2025, 02:20:09 pm by Ron »

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2752 on: December 24, 2025, 04:44:24 pm »
Man if Hoyer has lost Craig….

Man, if Hoyer has lost Ron...

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2753 on: December 24, 2025, 04:45:53 pm »
Boras is the agent for both Gallen and Imai. If he knows the Cubs will sign Gallen but only if they miss on Imai, that gives him quite an incentive to have Imai sign somewhere else.

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2754 on: December 24, 2025, 04:57:05 pm »
Man, if Hoyer has lost Ron...

Nuance and complexity, Deeg, nuance and complexity.
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2755 on: December 24, 2025, 07:30:46 pm »
Nuance and complexity, Deeg, nuance and complexity.

It’s a black or white world out there.

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2756 on: December 26, 2025, 09:39:48 am »
Merry Christmas, friends!  In Christmas story, people had been waiting. Hopes realized, waiting answered, promises fulfilled, expectations fulfilled in unexpected ways.  (Heh heh, I'll tie this in with Cubs!). 

We Cub fans have been waiting too!  Sooner or later, Hoyer will make a move.  Who knows how expected vs unexpected it might be?

3+ months till season, so rather premature to judge.  Next weekend has deadlines for both Imai and Okamoto, so maybe lots will be wrapped up.  Or not, who knows. 

I'm still pretty optimistic both that Imai will be the guy next week, AND that he'll end up being very good, even if not great. 

I'm still expectant that there will be a variably significant position player as well.  Maybe just Willi Castro type or less.  But I think Okamoto might still be in play. Or maybe Bregman; and I'm still not even precluding Bellinger or perhaps even Tucker.  As I've reasoned before, I don't think they really needed to be so thrifty on bullpen if there was no intent to spend beyond a pitcher and a low-priced utility guy.  Were that true, they could have afforded more $$ on relief.  But I reason that they thrifted on pen because they really do have hopes to land a variably significant player in addition to a pitcher.  At *least* one big chunk to go, but very possibly two.  And two could complete the roster. 

How far they're willing to go, I have no idea.  That may be dependent both on the player and the perceived value of a possible deal.  Bregman was perceived as a possible value opportunity last spring, enough to expand the budget to make a come-in-3rd offer.  Perhaps that same will be true this round:  maybe Casto fits normal "budget" but Okamoto doesn't?  Maybe Okamoto does, but Bregman doesn't?  But maybe Hoyer is willing to stretch for Bregman if his price seems decent value, rather than being inflated long and high.  Beats me. 


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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2757 on: December 26, 2025, 09:46:14 am »
For a good player who other teams want, the tricks are straightforward.  Add an extra year; include earlier option(s); defer; raise the AAV. 

Will Hoyer negotiate and give on one of those?  I expect he knows he'll need to.  I don't think he's going to sign Zac Efflin and call it a winter.  Just like he gave the extra length for Dansby, he's probably going to need to give in one of those ways to get Imai or whomever.  It isn't that complicated, I think they know they're going to need to.



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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2758 on: December 26, 2025, 10:08:58 am »
What does a given deal do for the team now and in the future?  That needs to be a major consideration.  It can't be only about how smart the deal is financially.
« Last Edit: December 26, 2025, 10:49:24 am by Playtwo »

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2759 on: December 26, 2025, 10:22:31 am »
For a good player who other teams want, the tricks are straightforward.  Add an extra year; include earlier option(s); defer; raise the AAV. 

Will Hoyer negotiate and give on one of those?  I expect he knows he'll need to.  I don't think he's going to sign Zac Efflin and call it a winter.  Just like he gave the extra length for Dansby, he's probably going to need to give in one of those ways to get Imai or whomever.  It isn't that complicated, I think they know they're going to need to.

Craig, you cited one example in six years of the Cubs paying market for a FA who was in demand. How much confidence should that really give you?