Author Topic: Hot Stove  (Read 102224 times)

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2805 on: January 01, 2026, 11:08:57 am »
Jesse Rogers @JesseRogersESPN
Tatsuya Imai's deal with Houston is for 3 years with opt outs every year, sources tell ESPN. When terms are announced, it'll be the largest AAV for a Japanese pitcher coming over outside of Yamamoto.

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2806 on: January 01, 2026, 11:10:35 am »
I wouldn't like to accept those opt outs.  But you must then have a viable alternative plan.

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2807 on: January 01, 2026, 11:11:16 am »
Chandler Rome @Chandler_Rome
The Astros are in agreement with Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai on a three-year contract, source tells @TheAthletic. The deal maxes out at $63 million and contains opt outs after every season.

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2808 on: January 01, 2026, 11:12:39 am »
Soon we'll learn that the Cubs were in the running til the last minute.

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2809 on: January 01, 2026, 11:14:27 am »
The viable back plan is hoping other teams went spend on a good player and they will fall into the Cubs lap. 

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2810 on: January 01, 2026, 11:21:49 am »
AAV isn't bad at all. 

Suppose he's good this year and opts out.  Houston could effectively get one effective $21/1 deal, and then maybe get a free comp pick after he ops out, if the contract doesn't have language precluding qualifying offer? 

Hoyer loves 1-year deals.  Surprised he wouldn't have liked something with this structure. 

The modest of the deal perhaps also speaks to mlb scouting?  Maybe they don't love him that much? 
« Last Edit: January 01, 2026, 11:23:36 am by craig »

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2811 on: January 01, 2026, 11:26:55 am »
So Shoti has a higher AAV than Imai.  Even if you think he’s a 3 or 4 that seems like a pretty decent deal for a 27 year old.  If he’s better than you get a free comp pick next year.  That is just depressing. 

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2812 on: January 01, 2026, 11:28:18 am »
What is he saving it for? 

Which of the following would you prefer, if he's going to add two pieces:
1.  Gallen + Okamoto
2.  Valdes + Castro
3.  Bregman + Chris Bassett
4.  Tucker + Brujan

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2813 on: January 01, 2026, 11:30:56 am »
3/$54 in guaranteed money for Imai.  So $18 AAV.
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2814 on: January 01, 2026, 11:32:22 am »
What is he saving it for? 

Which of the following would you prefer, if he's going to add two pieces:
1.  Gallen + Okamoto
2.  Valdes + Castro
3.  Bregman + Chris Bassett
4.  Tucker + Brujan


4 minus Brujan.

We won’t get any of those players listed
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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2815 on: January 01, 2026, 11:34:34 am »
Who else is left in the 2nd-level of pitchers?  Efflin and Mahle gone.  So, Giolito, Bassitt?  then looking at fossils like Q, Verlander, Scherzer type guys? 

Note:  there has been idea that Cubs should add a velocity K-oriented guy.  Rather than another Ranger Suarez type finesse contact manager.  Obviously everybody would like a big-stuff high-K guy, thus Cease got a big long deal.  But given the Cubs defense, might it not really be a better value-per-dollar for the Cubs to get a groundball guy? 

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2816 on: January 01, 2026, 11:50:51 am »
3/$54 in guaranteed money for Imai.  So $18 AAV.

Wow.  So with options, I wonder how the posting fee actually works?  Is Houston obligated to pay the full posting fee based on the $54 guaranteed, plus a little more for options earned as time goes by?  ~$10 to start?  Or with opt-out, are they only obligated for the flat 20% on his first year? 

If they have to pay the whole thing, but only get a single year only to have him opt out looks kinda less great. 



Would seem kinda a rip-off for the Japanese team to end up only getting 20% posting fee on first year, for guys who arrange contracts with 1-year opt-outs. 
« Last Edit: January 01, 2026, 11:52:30 am by craig »

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2817 on: January 01, 2026, 12:45:21 pm »
Who else is left in the 2nd-level of pitchers?  Efflin and Mahle gone.  So, Giolito, Bassitt?  then looking at fossils like Q, Verlander, Scherzer type guys? 

Note:  there has been idea that Cubs should add a velocity K-oriented guy.  Rather than another Ranger Suarez type finesse contact manager.  Obviously everybody would like a big-stuff high-K guy, thus Cease got a big long deal.  But given the Cubs defense, might it not really be a better value-per-dollar for the Cubs to get a groundball guy? 

Financial flexibility for 2026, which will become 2027 and so on. 

I take it back, my guess is Gallen because he might be more interested in a one prove it deal.

Bergman goes to D backs after they trade Marte.

The Cubs remain below the CBT.

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2818 on: January 01, 2026, 01:02:34 pm »
No one throws ground balls better than Valdez.

I’m sure we’re not interested, but he’s a perfect fit.

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Re: Hot Stove
« Reply #2819 on: January 01, 2026, 01:03:46 pm »
Wow.  So with options, I wonder how the posting fee actually works?  Is Houston obligated to pay the full posting fee based on the $54 guaranteed, plus a little more for options earned as time goes by?  ~$10 to start?  Or with opt-out, are they only obligated for the flat 20% on his first year? 

Posting fee apparently is $9.675 M, plus 15% of any incentives that Imai reaches.

Obviously, if he has a really good season he will opt out after year one and then look for a deal far longer than the two guaranteed years remaining.

So, it’s a very big one-year outlay (salary plus posting fee) for a pitcher without a MLB track record….and if he’s a disappointment, on the hook for two more years at significant money. If he opts out, Astros get the comp pick but only if willing to commit to $22 M or so for 2027——not automatic.

Kind of funny how $150 M projection turned into something far less…….but good for the player too if he proves himself.