Bleacher Bums Forum

tico and blue, I'm not sure how to process the 26 vs 25 stuff.  One framework is to compare how things look now versus how they looked pre-2025.  The other is to compare how things look now versus what we actually got in 2026.  The real season often played out very differently than pre-season expectation. 

Tucker projected great.  But he basically didn't produce anything after mid-June.  22 HR, .844 OPS.  Seiya should give more HR's, and almost as much OPS in RF.  Possible that Moises/Austin/Shaw at DH might combine for more DH HR than the 22 HR that Tucker actually hit?  Heh heh, Moises had higher OPS than Tucker!  Maybe the actual production difference in RF/DH won't be significantly different?   

Busch, my projection now is WAY higher than at this point last year.  Doesn't mean he'll actually produce as well as last season.  Projection can change a lot; but so too can actual performance?

Pitchers, nobody expected lots from Boyd.  Or Horton.  And nobody knew Assad, Steele, and Shota would all miss lots of season to injury.  Likewise thoughts/projections for Hodge and Pressly were more hopeful than the reality.  Again, what we anticipated entering the season ended up playing out very differently in the season.  Who knows this time around? 

But yeah, with the 11 starting pitchers we've got now, with only steele currently injured and that not for super long, projects to give better production than the actual 92-win rotation gave.

I'm just mean the 2025 offense is likely better than what the 2026 offense is going to be.  The question is how big of a gap.  Is Bregman a 120-130 wRC+ guy or is he sub 120.  Will Busch drop down?  What are Moises and PCA.  Like there is a version of the 2026 offense being better, but that is a lot of things going right. 

Yeah, agree.  It could/should be less.  Not sure it should drop that much, though?  (Obviously who knows, and who knows with injuries). 
Breg > Shaw
Tucker > Moises/Shaw/Austin
Shaw > Brujan/Berti/Castro

Not sure it should really drop that much, barring injury?  But yeah, that kinda depends on guys like Busch, PCA, Amaya/Kelly, and Seiya not declining a bunch.

I think regression is likely.  But personnel-wise, it almost ought to be better?  A year of Bregman versus 2 months of Tucker; a year of more-ready Shaw in place of Brujan/Berti.  Otherwise it's pretty much the same personnel. 

....Shaw is different. He’s a 3B and 3B is now unavailable here. Trade him to somebody who wants him for 600 PAs at 3B. Maybe like the Michael Busch trade in reverse or, alternatively, for a very significant piece for 2026 and beyond. Would not be averse to bringing back Willi Castro for the utility role, who’s probably actually still a .700 OPS guy and not the poor performer he was here in 2025. Can play everywhere on the field, as we know.

Don't agree. 
1.  After the bat-speed and exit-velo type underlying numbers, I'm not sure he presently has big trade value?  And we have no Nowacrat need other than the Nowacrat utility role that he fits.   

2.  *IF* you're dead set on trading him, I suspect his trade value might be better served by keeping him and having him show that he's an improved big-league hitter, ready to be an asset every-day bat.

3.  Hasn't proved 2B yet.  But I think if he's good at 3rd, he'll be able to be capable at 2nd as well. 

4.  I'm a big fan of keeping good prospects as utility guys.  Every year, bench guys gobble **huge** volumes of AB's.  *IF* he's a good player and becomes a good hitter, then I think he'll have plenty of value in utility.  Perhaps super-utility.  Having one that's locked in under club-control at low price, all the better.  P2 has mentioned learning OF too.  With his speed and athleticism, perhaps he could, even if arm is weak?  I just think trading him now, when we don't really have a need other than utility bench, wouldn't seem wise.  And yeah, *IF* he hits and proves himself as a bat, you'll always have opportunity to trade him later if you want.  Just don't see it making any sense now. 

5.  Shaw seems a super hard worker and a smart, enthusiastic guy.  Seems like a good personality to adapt to utility function, not a pouter.

Dave, I did a poor job of explaining my explanation.

Salary for players on any of the major league ILs counts toward the luxury tax payroll.  And, of course, salary for players replacing those who are on the IL counts toward the luxury tax payroll.

What I was trying to say is that most luxury tax payroll estimates (both professional and my own amateur attempt) anticipate that there will be players on the IL throughout the year and build in cost for players to replace those.

So you, and cots, and others include that in their projections.  That certainly makes sense.  But isn't that what Hoyer is doing, when he says that he wants to reserve 8 to 10 million dollars for last minute trades, etc.  And it sounds like he made a poor estimate the year he accidentally went over the limit.  I admit I am not sure that that is actually what he said, or how he said it.

Do we have any actual information about his leaving the team?  Did he have permission?  If he didn't, did they punish him for it.  If not, why not?

And, of course, is there any independent confirmation of Law's comment.

Do we have any actual information about his leaving the team?  Did he have permission?  If he didn't, did they punish him for it.  If not, why not?

And, of course, is there any independent confirmation of Law's comment.

He had premission from the team.  I believe his discussed it with teammate, Counsel and the front office.

Sharma and Mooney have not mentioned the coaching, but a lack of mentioning it doesn't mean it isn't true.

Keith Law said Shaw left the team to “attend a political rally.”

That’s a very, very peculiar way to describe attending a memorial service for someone you personally are close to and who died under tragic circumstances.

Charlie Kirk, a huge Cubs fan, lived in same apartment complex as Shaw the previous off-season and they texted regularly. Were friends. Don’t have to like Kirk’s politics to empathize with Shaw’s desire to attend the service. Asked for and received permission from Cubs and was supported by his teammates.

Given how Law twisted what happened as above, have to question Law’s comments about Shaw’s coachability, especially when we all know that Shaw changed quite a bit mechanically when he came back from Iowa. Also, a player does not become proficient defensively at a new position, as Shaw did, without an enormous amount of work and dedication to his craft.

So, think that what Law said is bunk virtually in its entirety..

As to a possible Shaw trade, reports last trade deadline were that Nats insisted on Shaw in the Mackenzie Gore talks. Shaw is a fit for Nats at 3B. Cubs could not do that back then but can now.

Nats were only NL team in 2025 with negative WAR at 3B. Incredibly, Nats also had negative WAR at 1B too in 2025. Hard to imagine a MLB team with negative WAR at both infield corners, but there you go. So, Johnny Long fits with Nats too.

Do Cubs need more quality SP? Here’s the biggest cliche in baseball: YOU NEVER HAVE ENOUGH PITCHING.

One more thought on Shaw and his priorities. Bregman, FWIW, is a confirmed anti-Trumper and that could be a source of friction with a zygote like Shaw being as vocal and flamboyant as he is regarding his political views.

There is ZERO factual support that Shaw is politically “vocal and flamboyant” in a baseball context——vis a vis his teammates or any other baseball context.

To my eyes, his political views are misguided but that’s his business. Notion that this would cause friction with Bregman is ridiculous.